Risk Factors for Radical Rectal Cancer Surgery with a Temporary Stoma Becoming a Permanent Stoma: A Pooling Up Analysis

Development and validation of a nomogram for preoperatively predicting permanent stoma after rectal cancer surgery with ileostomy: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

For patients with rectal cancer, the utilization of temporary ileostomy (TI) has proven effective in minimizing the occurrence of severe complications post-surgery, such as anastomotic leaks; however, some patients are unable to reverse in time or even develop a permanent stoma (PS). We aimed to determine the preoperative predictors associated with TS failure and develop and validate appropriate predictive models to improve patients' quality of life.

METHODS

This research included 403 patients with rectal cancer who underwent temporary ileostomies between January 2017 and December 2021. All patients were randomly divided into either the developmental (70%) or validation (30%) group. The independent risk factors for PS were determined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Subsequently, a nomogram was constructed, and the prediction probability was estimated by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. A calibration plot was used to evaluate the nomogram calibration.

RESULTS

Of the 403 enrolled patients, 282 were randomized into the developmental group, 121 into the validation group, and 58 (14.39%) had a PS. The development group consisted of 282 patients, of whom 39 (13.81%) had a PS. The validation group consisted of 121 patients, of whom, 19 (15.70%) had a PS; 37 related factors were analyzed in the study. Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated significant associations between the occurrence of PS and various factors in this patient cohort, including tumor location (OR = 6.631, P = 0.005), tumor markers (OR = 2.309, P = 0.035), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score (OR = 4.784, P = 0.004), T4 stage (OR = 2.880, P = 0.036), lymph node metastasis (OR = 4.566, P = 0.001), and distant metastasis (OR = 4.478, P = 0.036). Furthermore, a preoperative nomogram was constructed based on these data and subsequently validated in an independent validation group.

CONCLUSION

We identified six independent preoperative risk factors associated with PS following rectal cancer resection and developed a validated nomogram with an area under the ROC curve of 0.7758, which can assist surgeons in formulating better surgical options, such as colostomy, for patients at high risk of PS.

Predictors of complications after prophylactic ileostomy reversal for rectal cancer: A retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have analyzed the risk factors for complications after ileostomy reversal for rectal cancer (RC), but there were significant differences in the reported risk factors for complications after stoma reversal. No studies have analyzed the risk factors for stoma-related complications and overall postoperative complications separately.

AIM

To analyze the risk factors for overall complications and stoma-related complications after ileostomy reversal for patients with RC.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study of 439 patients who underwent ileostomy reversal at a clinical center and were followed up between September 2012 and September 2022. Continuous variables are expressed as the mean ± SD and were analyzed with independent-sample t tests, while frequency variables are expressed as n (%), and the χ2 test or Fisher's exact test was used. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify predictors of overall complications and stoma-related complications.

RESULTS

The overall complication rate after ileostomy reversal was 11.4%. Patients with lower preoperative albumin concentration (P < 0.01), greater blood loss (P = 0.017), and longer operative times (P < 0.01) were more likely to experience postoperative complications. The incidence of stoma-related complications was 6.4%. Analysis of the study showed that a higher body mass index (BMI) (P < 0.01), preoperative comorbid hypertension (P = 0.049), time from primary surgery to ileostomy reversal (P < 0.01) and longer operation time (P = 0.010) were more likely to result in stoma-related complications postoperatively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that a lower preoperative albumin level (P < 0.01, OR = 0.888, 95%CI: 0.828-0.958) was an independent risk factor for overall complications. Moreover, multivariate analysis revealed that BMI (P < 0.01, OR = 1.176, 95%CI: 1.041-1.330) and time from primary surgery to ileostomy reversal (P < 0.01, OR = 1.140, 95%CI: 1.038-1.252) were independent risk factors for stoma-related complications after stoma reversal.

CONCLUSION

The preoperative albumin level was a predictor of overall complications. Preoperative BMI and the time from primary surgery to ileostomy reversal were predictors of stoma-related complications.

Preoperative risk factors and cumulative incidence of temporary ileostomy non-closure after sphincter-preserving surgery for rectal cancer: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Temporary ileostomy (TI) has proven effective in reducing the severity of anastomotic leakage after rectal cancer surgery; however, some ileostomies fail to reverse over time, leading to conversion into a permanent stoma (PS). In this study, we aimed to investigate the preoperative risk factors and cumulative incidence of TI non-closure after sphincter-preserving surgery for rectal cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a meta-analysis after searching the Embase, Web of Science, PubMed, and MEDLINE databases from their inception until November 2023. We collected all published studies on the risk factors related to TI non-closure after sphincter-preserving surgery for rectal cancer.

RESULTS

A total of 1610 studies were retrieved, and 13 studies were included for meta-analysis, comprising 3026 patients. The results of the meta-analysis showed that the identified risk factors included older age (p = 0.03), especially > 65 years of age (p = 0.03), male sex (p = 0.009), American Society of Anesthesiologists score ≥ 3 (p = 0.004), comorbidity (p = 0.001), and distant metastasis (p < 0.001). Body mass index, preoperative hemoglobin, preoperative albumin, preoperative carcinoma embryonic antigen, tumor location, neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, smoking, history of abdominal surgery, and open surgery did not significantly change the risk of TI non-closure.

CONCLUSION

We identified five preoperative risk factors for TI non-closure after sphincter-preserving surgery for rectal cancer. This information enables surgeons to identify high-risk groups before surgery, inform patients about the possibility of PS in advance, and consider performing protective colostomy or Hartmann surgery.

Predicting survival and prognosis in early-onset locally advanced colon cancer: a retrospective observational study

OBJECTIVE

To predict cancer-specific survival, a refined nomogram model and brand-new risk-stratifying system were established to classify the risk levels of patients with early-onset locally advanced colon cancer (LACC).

METHODS

The clinical factors and survival outcomes of LACC cases from the SEER database from 2010 to 2019 were retrieved retrospectively. Early-onset and late-onset colon cancer were grouped according to the age (50 years old) at diagnosis. Differences between groups were compared to identify mutual significant variables. A multivariate Cox regression analysis was further performed and then constructed a nomogram. We compared it with the AJCC-TNM system. The external validation was performed for evaluation. Finally, a risk-stratifying system of patients with early-onset LACC was established.

RESULTS

A total of 32,855 LACC patients were enrolled in, 4548 (13.84%) patients were included in the early-onset LACC group, and 28,307 (86.16%) patients were included in the late-onset LACC group. The external validation set included 228 early-onset LACC patients. Early-onset colon cancers had poorer prognosis (T4, N2, TNM stage III, CEA, tumor deposit, and nerve invasion), and a higher proportion received radiotherapy and systemic therapy (P<0.001). In the survival analysis, cancer-specific survival (CSS) was better in patients with early-onset LACC than in those with late-onset LACC (P <0.001). This nomogram constructed based on the results of COX analysis showed better accuracy in CSS prediction of early-onset LACC patients than AJCC-TNM system in the training set and external validation set (0.783 vs 0.728; 0.852 vs 0.773).

CONCLUSION

We developed a novel nomogram model to predict CSS in patients with early-onset LACC it provided a reference in prognosis prediction and selection of individualized treatment, helping clinicians in decision-making.