Impact of COVID-19 on care-home mortality and life expectancy in Scotland

Lessons from the PROTECT-CH COVID-19 platform trial in care homes

Background

Coronavirus disease-2019 was associated with significant mortality and morbidity in care homes in 2020-1. Repurposed antiviral drugs might reduce morbidity and mortality through reducing viral transmission, infection, replication and inflammation. We aimed to compare the safety and efficacy of potential antiviral drugs in care home residents.

Methods

We designed a cluster-randomised, open-label, blinded end-point platform trial to test drugs in a postexposure prophylaxis paradigm. Participants aged 65+ years from United Kingdom care homes, with or without nursing, were eligible for participation. Care homes were to be allocated at random by computer to administer 42 days of antiviral agent (ciclesonide or niclosamide) plus standard care versus standard care alone to residents. The primary outcome at 60 days after randomisation comprised the most serious outcome, which was defined as all-cause mortality, all-cause hospitalisation, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection or no infection. Analysis would be by intention to treat using ordinal logistic regression. Other outcomes included individual components of the primary outcome, transmission, plus health economic and process evaluation outcomes. The planned sample size was 300 care homes corresponding to 9600 residents. With ~40% of care homes predicted to develop an outbreak during the trial, we needed to recruit 750 homes/24,000 residents.

Results

We initiated the trial including protocol, approvals, insurance, website, database, data algorithms, intervention selection and training materials. We built a network of principal investigators and staff (91) and care homes (299) to support the trial. However, we never contracted care homes or general practitioners since the trial was stopped in September 2021, as vaccination in care homes had significantly reduced infections. Multiple delays significantly delayed the start date, such as: (1) reduced prioritisation of pandemic trials in 2021; (2) cumbersome mechanisms for choosing the investigational medicinal products; (3) contracting between National Institute for Health and Care Research and the investigational medicinal product manufacturers; (4) publicising the investigational medicinal products; (5) identification of sufficient numbers of care homes; (6) identification and contracting with several thousand general practitioners; (7) limited research nurse availability and (8) identification of adequate insurance to cover care homes for research. Generic challenges included working across the four home nations with their different structures and regulations.

Limitations

The feasibility of contracting between the sponsor and the principal investigators, general practitioners and care homes; screening, consent and treatment of care home residents; data acquisition and the potential benefit of postexposure prophylaxis were never tested.

Conclusions

The success of vaccination meant that the role of postexposure prophylaxis of coronavirus disease-2019 in care home residents was not tested. Significant progress was made in developing the infrastructure and expertise necessary for a large-scale clinical trial of investigational medicinal products in United Kingdom care homes.

Future work

The role of postexposure prophylaxis of coronavirus disease-2019 in care home residents remains undefined. Significant logistical barriers to conducting research in care homes need to be removed urgently before future studies are possible. Further work is required to develop the infrastructure for clinical trials of investigational medicinal products in care homes. Serious consideration should be given to building and then hibernating a pandemic-ready platform trial suitable for care home research.

Funding

This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme as award number NIHR133443.

Mortality in long-term care residents: retrospective national cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Mortality trends among people living in long-term care settings have been poorly understood. Linking data offers the potential to provide real-world, long-term national follow-up. Our aim was to describe patterns and associations with mortality among people moving-in to care homes in Scotland.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was undertaken using routinely collected national social care data from the Scottish Care Home Census. These data were indexed and linked to national health data and mortality records for individuals moving- in to care homes in Scotland between 1 April 2013 and 31 March 2016. Location of death, underlying causes and time to death are reported. Survival analysis was undertaken using the Gompertz model for human mortality adjusted for key variables.

RESULTS

Of 23 892 individuals moving-in to care homes, 20 250 (84.8%) died by 31 May 2020. Most deaths occurred in the care home setting (77.5%), with a fifth (20.5%) occurring in the hospital. 0.1% died the day they moved-in, 3.2% within a month, 24.2% within a year and 85% by 7 years. Dementia codes account for more than a third of all deaths (35.1%). Median survival time was shorter (701 vs 951 days; 23 vs 32 months) for those moving-in from the hospital, compared with the community. The adjusted HR for moving-in from the hospital was 1.19 (95% CI 1.15 to 1.22).

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality is common in Scotland's care homes but varies in timing. Dementia is the most common cause. Those moving-in from the hospital are more likely to die sooner, and this evidence provides opportunities to improve support for all involved.

Using Palliative Care Needs Rounds in the UK for care home staff and residents: an implementation science study

Background

Care home residents often lack access to end-of-life care from specialist palliative care providers. Palliative Care Needs Rounds, developed and tested in Australia, is a novel approach to addressing this.

Objective

To co-design and implement a scalable UK model of Needs Rounds.

Design

A pragmatic implementation study using the integrated Promoting Action on Research Implementation in Health Services framework.

Setting

Implementation was conducted in six case study sites (England, n = 4, and Scotland, n = 2) encompassing specialist palliative care service working with three to six care homes each.

Participants

Phase 1: interviews (n = 28 care home staff, specialist palliative care staff, relatives, primary care, acute care and allied health practitioners) and four workshops (n = 43 care home staff, clinicians and managers from specialist palliative care teams and patient and public involvement and engagement representatives). Phase 2: interviews (n = 58 care home and specialist palliative care staff); family questionnaire (n = 13 relatives); staff questionnaire (n = 171 care home staff); quality of death/dying questionnaire (n = 81); patient and public involvement and engagement evaluation interviews (n = 11); fidelity assessment (n = 14 Needs Rounds recordings).

Interventions

(1) Monthly hour-long discussions of residents' physical, psychosocial and spiritual needs, alongside case-based learning, (2) clinical work and (3) relative/multidisciplinary team meetings.

Main outcome measures

A programme theory describing what works for whom under what circumstances with UK Needs Rounds. Secondary outcomes focus on health service use and cost effectiveness, quality of death and dying, care home staff confidence and capability, and the use of patient and public involvement and engagement.

Data sources

Semistructured interviews and workshops with key stakeholders from the six sites; capability of adopting a palliative approach, quality of death and dying index, and Canadian Health Care Evaluation Project Lite questionnaires; recordings of Needs Rounds; care home data on resident demographics/health service use; assessments and interventions triggered by Needs Rounds; semistructured interviews with academic and patient and public involvement and engagement members.

Results

The programme theory: while care home staff experience workforce challenges such as high turnover, variable skills and confidence, Needs Rounds can provide care home and specialist palliative care staff the opportunity to collaborate during a protected time, to plan for residents' last months of life. Needs Rounds build care home staff confidence and can strengthen relationships and trust, while harnessing services' complementary expertise. Needs Rounds strengthen understandings of dying, symptom management, advance/anticipatory care planning and communication. This can improve resident care, enabling residents to be cared for and die in their preferred place, and may benefit relatives by increasing their confidence in care quality.

Limitations

COVID-19 restricted intervention and data collection. Due to an insufficient sample size, it was not possible to conduct a cost-benefit analysis of Needs Rounds or calculate the treatment effect or family perceptions of care.

Conclusions

Our work suggests that Needs Rounds can improve the quality of life and death for care home residents, by enhancing staff skills and confidence, including symptom management, communications with general practitioners and relatives, and strengthen relationships between care home and specialist palliative care staff.

Future work

Conduct analysis of costs-benefits and treatment effects. Engagement with commissioners and policy-makers could examine integration of Needs Rounds into care homes and primary care across the UK to ensure equitable access to specialist care.

Study registration

This study is registered as ISRCTN15863801.

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR128799) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 12, No. 19. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Understanding Pathways into Care-homes using Data (UnPiCD study): a two-part model to estimate inpatient and care-home costs using national linked health and social care data

BACKGROUND

Pathways into care-homes have been under-researched. Individuals who move-in to a care-home from hospital are clinically distinct from those moving-in from the community. However, it remains unclear whether the source of care-home admission has any implications in term of costs. Our aim was to quantify hospital and care-home costs for individuals newly moving-in to care homes to compare those moving-in from hospital to those moving-in from the community.

METHODS

Using routinely-collected national social care and health data we constructed a cohort including people moving into care-homes from hospital and community settings between 01/04/2013-31/03/2015 based on records from the Scottish Care-Home Census (SCHC). Individual-level data were obtained from Scottish Morbidity Records (SMR01/04/50) and death records from National Records of Scotland (NRS). Unit costs were identified from NHS Scotland costs data and care-home costs from the SCHC. We used a two-part model to estimate costs conditional on having incurred positive costs. Additional analyses estimated differences in costs for the one-year period preceding and following care-home admission.

RESULTS

We included 14,877 individuals moving-in to a care-home, 8,472 (57%) from hospital, and 6,405 (43%) from the community. Individuals moving-in to care-homes from the community incurred higher costs at £27,117 (95% CI £ 26,641 to £ 27,594) than those moving-in from hospital with £24,426 (95% CI £ 24,037 to £ 24,814). Hospital costs incurred during the year preceding care-home admission were substantially higher (£8,323 (95% CI£8,168 to £8,477) compared to those incurred after moving-in to care-home (£1,670 (95% CI£1,591 to £1,750).

CONCLUSION

Individuals moving-in from hospital and community have different needs, and this is reflected in the difference in costs incurred. The reduction in hospital costs in the year after moving-in to a care-home indicates the positive contribution of care-home residency in supporting those with complex needs. These data provide an important contribution to inform capacity planning on care provision for adults with complex needs and the costs of care provision.

Greatest Risk Factor for Death from COVID-19: Older Age, Chronic Disease Burden, or Place of Residence? Descriptive Analysis of Population-Level Canadian Data

During the first wave of COVID-19, three-quarters of Canadian deaths were among those age 80 and older. We examined whether age, chronic disease load, sex, or place was the strongest predictor of such deaths. A cross-sectional analysis of administrative data from 1 January 2020 to 30 October 2020 for the population of Ontario (n = 15,023,174) was performed. Using logistic regression analysis, we determined whether place of residence (community dwelling, community dwelling with formal home care, or long-term care facility), age group, sex, or chronic disease burden was most strongly associated with the outcome of death within 60 days of a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test. Overall, there were 2766 deaths attributed to COVID-19. The age-related odds of dying increased from 6.1 (age 65-74) to 13.4 (age 85 or older) relative to those aged <65 years. This age effect was dwarfed by an odds ratio of 117.1 for those living in long-term care versus independently in the community, adjusted for age, sex, and chronic disease burden. The risk of death from COVID-19 aligned much more with social realities than individual risks. The disproportionate mortality arising specifically from institutional residence demands action to identify sources and ameliorate the harms of living in such facilities.

Factors influencing staff attitudes to COVID-19 vaccination in care homes in England: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic disproportionately affected people living and working in UK care homes causing high mortality rates. Vaccinating staff members and residents is considered the most effective intervention to reduce infection and its transmission rates. However, uptake of the first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine in care homes was variable. We sought to investigate factors influencing uptake of COVID-19 vaccination in care home staff to inform strategies to increase vaccination uptake and inform future preparedness.

METHODS

Twenty care home staff including managerial and administrative staff, nurses, healthcare practitioners and support staff from nine care homes across England participated in semi-structured telephone interviews (March-June 2021) exploring attitudes towards the COVID-19 vaccine and factors influencing uptake. We used thematic analysis to generate themes which were subsequently deductively mapped to the Capability, Opportunity, Motivation-Behaviour (COM-B) model. The Behavioural Change Wheel (BCW) was used to identify potential intervention strategies to address identified influences.

RESULTS

Enablers to vaccine uptake included the willingness to protect care home residents, staff and family/friends from infection and the belief that vaccination provided a way back to normality (reflective motivation); convenience of vaccination and access to accurate information (physical opportunity); and a supporting social environment around them favouring vaccination (social opportunity). Barriers included fears about side-effects (automatic motivation); a lack of trust due to the quick release of the vaccine (reflective motivation); and feeling pressurised to accept vaccination if mandatory (automatic motivation).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified influences on COVID-19 vaccine uptake by care home staff that can inform the implementation of future vaccination programmes. Strategies likely to support uptake include information campaigns and facilitating communication between staff and managers to openly discuss concerns regarding possible vaccination side effects. Freedom of choice played an important role in the decision to be vaccinated suggesting that the decision to mandate vaccination may have unintended behavioural consequences.

Investigation of hospital discharge cases and SARS-CoV-2 introduction into Lothian care homes

BACKGROUND

The first epidemic wave of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Scotland resulted in high case numbers and mortality in care homes. In Lothian, over one-third of care homes reported an outbreak, while there was limited testing of hospital patients discharged to care homes.

AIM

To investigate patients discharged from hospitals as a source of SARS-CoV-2 introduction into care homes during the first epidemic wave.

METHODS

A clinical review was performed for all patients discharges from hospitals to care homes from 1st March 2020 to 31st May 2020. Episodes were ruled out based on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) test history, clinical assessment at discharge, whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data and an infectious period of 14 days. Clinical samples were processed for WGS, and consensus genomes generated were used for analysis using Cluster Investigation and Virus Epidemiological Tool software. Patient timelines were obtained using electronic hospital records.

FINDINGS

In total, 787 patients discharged from hospitals to care homes were identified. Of these, 776 (99%) were ruled out for subsequent introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into care homes. However, for 10 episodes, the results were inconclusive as there was low genomic diversity in consensus genomes or no sequencing data were available. Only one discharge episode had a genomic, time and location link to positive cases during hospital admission, leading to 10 positive cases in their care home.

CONCLUSION

The majority of patients discharged from hospitals were ruled out for introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into care homes, highlighting the importance of screening all new admissions when faced with a novel emerging virus and no available vaccine.

The estimated disease burden of acute COVID-19 in the Netherlands in 2020, in disability-adjusted life-years

The impact of COVID-19 on population health is recognised as being substantial, yet few studies have attempted to quantify to what extent infection causes mild or moderate symptoms only, requires hospital and/or ICU admission, results in prolonged and chronic illness, or leads to premature death. We aimed to quantify the total disease burden of acute COVID-19 in the Netherlands in 2020 using the disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) measure, and to investigate how burden varies between age-groups and occupations. Using standard methods and diverse data sources (mandatory notifications, population-level seroprevalence, hospital and ICU admissions, registered COVID-19 deaths, and the literature), we estimated years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability, DALY and DALY per 100,000 population due to COVID-19, excluding post-acute sequelae, stratified by 5-year age-group and occupation category. The total disease burden due to acute COVID-19 was 286,100 (95% CI: 281,700-290,500) DALY, and the per-capita burden was 1640 (95% CI: 1620-1670) DALY/100,000, of which 99.4% consisted of YLL. The per-capita burden increased steeply with age, starting from 60 to 64 years, with relatively little burden estimated for persons under 50 years old. SARS-CoV-2 infection and associated premature mortality was responsible for a considerable direct health burden in the Netherlands, despite extensive public health measures. DALY were much higher than for other high-burden infectious diseases, but lower than estimated for coronary heart disease. These findings are valuable for informing public health decision-makers regarding the expected COVID-19 health burden among population subgroups, and the possible gains from targeted preventative interventions.

Years of life lost during the Covid-19 pandemic in Sweden considering variation in life expectancy by level of geriatric care

The Covid-19 pandemic has not affected the population evenly. This must be acknowledged when it comes to understanding the Covid-19 death toll and answering the question of how many life years have been lost. We use level of geriatric care to account for variation in remaining life expectancy among individuals that died during 2020. Based on a linkage of administrative registers, we estimate remaining life expectancy stratified by age, sex, and care status using an incidence-based multistate model and analyze the number of years of life lost (YLL) during 2020 in Sweden. Our results show that remaining life expectancy between individuals with and without care differs substantially. More than half of all Covid-19 deaths had a remaining life expectancy lower than 4 years. Yet, in a 1-year perspective, Covid-19 did not seem to replace other causes of death. Not considering the differences in remaining life expectancy in the affected populations overestimated YLL by 40% for women and 30% for men, or around 2 years per death. While the unadjusted YLL from Covid-19 amounted to an average of 7.5 years for women and 8.6 years for men, the corresponding YLL adjusted for care status were 5.4 and 6.6, respectively. The total number of YLL to Covid-19 in 2020 is comparable to YLL from ischemic heart disease in 2019 and 2020. Our results urge the use of subgroup specific mortality when counting the burden of Covid-19. YLL are considerably reduced when the varying susceptibility for death is considered, but even if most lifespans were cut in the last years of life, the YLL are still substantial.

Associations of air pollution with COVID-19 positivity, hospitalisations, and mortality: Observational evidence from UK Biobank

Individual-level studies with adjustment for important COVID-19 risk factors suggest positive associations of long-term air pollution exposure (particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide) with COVID-19 infection, hospitalisations and mortality. The evidence, however, remains limited and mechanisms unclear. We aimed to investigate these associations within UK Biobank, and to examine the role of underlying chronic disease as a potential mechanism. UK Biobank COVID-19 positive laboratory test results were ascertained via Public Health England and general practitioner record linkage, COVID-19 hospitalisations via Hospital Episode Statistics, and COVID-19 mortality via Office for National Statistics mortality records from March-December 2020. We used annual average outdoor air pollution modelled at 2010 residential addresses of UK Biobank participants who resided in England (n = 424,721). We obtained important COVID-19 risk factors from baseline UK Biobank questionnaire responses (2006-2010) and general practitioner record linkage. We used logistic regression models to assess associations of air pollution with COVID-19 outcomes, adjusted for relevant confounders, and conducted sensitivity analyses. We found positive associations of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) with COVID-19 positive test result after adjustment for confounders and COVID-19 risk factors, with odds ratios of 1.05 (95% confidence intervals (CI) = 1.02, 1.08), and 1.05 (95% CI = 1.01, 1.08), respectively. PM 2.5 and NO 2 were positively associated with COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths in minimally adjusted models, but not in fully adjusted models. No associations for PM₁₀ were found. In analyses with additional adjustment for pre-existing chronic disease, effect estimates were not substantially attenuated, indicating that underlying chronic disease may not fully explain associations. We found some evidence that long-term exposure to PM_2.5 and NO₂ was associated with a COVID-19 positive test result in UK Biobank, though not with COVID-19 hospitalisations or deaths.

Estimating US Earnings Loss Associated with COVID-19 Based on Human Capital Calculation

Infection with COVID-19 could result in lockdown, quarantine of contacts, absenteeism from work, and temporary productivity loss. This research aims to calculate (1) how the pandemic affects on-the-job probability and earnings for the working population, and (2) how much productivity loss is associated with self or a family member sick with COVID-19. Based on data collected from the U.S Research and Development Survey (RANDS), this research projects the relationship between on-the-job possibility and age of the index group and calculates the employment possibilities of the index group relative to the healthy group, namely the employment ratio. The weekly loss of productivity, presented by earnings, associated with COVID-19 for groups aged 18-44 years and 45-64 years was calculated, since the 18- to 64-year-old population is an economy's active workforce. Analytical results indicate that the older the age group, the lower the on-the-job possibility, and the higher the weekly productivity loss due to self or a family member being sick from COVID-19. For the group aged 45-64 years, the employment ratio of the index group relative to the healthy group dropped from 0.863 to 0.39, corresponding to a weekly productivity loss of 136-590 US dollars. The overall impact would be about a 9% loss in GDP. Infected or quarantined people would be confined to working in relatively isolated offices or places to allow for social distancing. Proactive health promotion in the workplace plus reactive work through telecommunication systems would reduce such losses. Such preparedness needs to be implemented early for more vulnerable workers who are of middle or old age and/or those comorbid with diabetes.

Making progress: but a way to go-the age and ageing care-home collection

Care homes enable people with advanced physical and cognitive impairment to live well with 24-h support from staff. They are a feature of care systems in most countries. They have proved pivotal to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) response. We searched Age and Ageing for care-home articles published since 2015. From these we collated 42 into the Age and Ageing care-home collection. This collection draws together important papers that show how Age and Ageing is helping to shape and grow care-home research. The  collection outlines the technical issues that researchers face by grouping together important feasibility trials conducted in the sector. It looks at the challenges of measuring quality of life and working with routine data in care homes. It brings together observational studies considering loneliness, functional dependency, stroke outcomes, prescribing and acute deterioration. Health services research in care homes is represented by two studies that demonstrate realist evaluation as a way to make sense of service innovations. Papers are included that consider: non-pharmacological strategies for residents with dementia, end-of-life care, sexuality and intimacy and the care-home workforce. Given the importance of the COVID-19 pandemic in care homes, all of the care home COVID-19 papers published in Age and Ageing to date are included. Finally, a group of papers that present innovative approaches to research in care homes, each of which give voice to residents and/or staff, are collated and presented as a way of moving towards a more resident and care home centred research agenda.

Are we allowed to visit now? Concerns and issues surrounding vaccination and infection risks in UK care homes during COVID-19

BACKGROUND

vaccination uptake in the UK and increased care home testing are likely affecting care home visitation. With scant scientific evidence to date, the aim of this longitudinal qualitative study was to explore the impact of both (vaccination and testing) on the conduct and experiences of care home visits.

METHODS

family carers of care home residents with dementia and care home staff from across the UK took part in baseline (October/November 2020) and follow-up interviews (March 2021). Public advisers were involved in all elements of the research. Data were analysed using thematic analysis.

RESULTS

across 62 baseline and follow-up interviews with family carers (n = 26; 11) and care home staff (n = 16; 9), five core themes were developed: delayed and inconsistent offers of face-to-face visits; procedures and facilitation of visits; variable uptake of the COVID-19 vaccine; misinformation, education and free choice; frustration and anger among family carers. The variable uptake in staff, compared to family carers, was a key factor seemingly influencing visitation, with a lack of clear guidance leading care homes to implement infection control measures and visitation rights differently.

CONCLUSIONS

we make five recommendations in this paper to enable improved care home visitation in the ongoing, and in future, pandemics. Visits need to be enabled and any changes to visiting rights must be used as a last resort, reviewed regularly in consultation with residents and carers and restored as soon as possible as a top priority, whilst more education needs to be provided surrounding vaccination for care home staff.

Impaired Functional T-Cell Response to SARS-CoV-2 After Two Doses of BNT162b2 mRNA Vaccine in Older People

Long-term care facility (LTCF) older residents display physiological alterations of cellular and humoral immunity that affect vaccine responses. Preliminary reports suggested a low early postvaccination antibody response against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The aim of this study was to focus on the specific T-cell response. We quantified S1-specific IgG, neutralizing antibody titers, total specific IFNγ-secreting T cells by ELISpot, and functionality of CD4⁺- and CD8⁺-specific T cells by flow cytometry, after two doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine in younger and older people, with and without previous COVID-19 infection (hereafter referred to as COVID-19-recovered and COVID-19-naive subjects, respectively). Frailty, nutritional, and immunosenescence parameters were collected at baseline in COVID-19-naive older people. We analyzed the immune response in 129 young adults (median age 44.0 years) and 105 older residents living in a LCTF (median age 86.5 years), 3 months after the first injection. Humoral and cellular memory responses were dramatically impaired in the COVID-19-naive older (n = 54) compared with the COVID-19-naive younger adults (n = 121). Notably, older participants’ neutralizing antibodies were 10 times lower than the younger’s antibody titers (p < 0.0001) and LCTF residents also had an impaired functional T-cell response: the frequencies of IFNγ⁺ and IFNγ⁺IL-2⁺TNFα⁺ cells among specific CD4⁺ T cells, and the frequency of specific CD8⁺ T cells were lower in COVID-19-naive older participants than in COVID-19-naive young adults (p < 0.0001 and p = 0.0018, respectively). However, COVID-19-recovered older participants (n = 51) had greater antibody and T-cell responses, including IFNγ⁺ and IFNγ⁺IL-2⁺TNFα⁺-specific CD4⁺ T cells (p < 0.0001), as well as TNFα⁺-specific CD8⁺ T cells (p < 0.001), than COVID-19-naive older adults. We also observed that “inflammageing” and particularly high plasma levels of TNFα was associated to poor antibody response in the older participants. In conclusion, our results show that the COVID-19-naive older people had low counts and impaired specific CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ T cells, in addition to impaired antibody response, and that specific studies are warranted to assess the efficiency of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA-based vaccines, as in other immunocompromised subjects. Our study also shows that, despite their physiological alterations of immunity, vaccination is highly efficient in boosting the prior natural memory response in COVID-19-recovered older people.

Care-home outbreaks of COVID-19 in Scotland March to May 2020: National linked data cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

understanding care-home outbreaks of COVID-19 is a key public health priority in the ongoing pandemic to help protect vulnerable residents.

OBJECTIVE

to describe all outbreaks of COVID-19 infection in Scottish care-homes for older people between 01/03/2020 and 31/03/2020, with follow-up to 30/06/2020.

DESIGN AND SETTING

National linked data cohort analysis of Scottish care-homes for older people.

METHODS

data linkage was used to identify outbreaks of COVID-19 in care-homes. Care-home characteristics associated with the presence of an outbreak were examined using logistic regression. Size of outbreaks was modelled using negative binomial regression.

RESULTS

334 (41%) Scottish care-homes for older people experienced an outbreak, with heterogeneity in outbreak size (1-63 cases; median = 6) and duration (1-94 days, median = 31.5 days). Four distinct patterns of outbreak were identified: 'typical' (38% of outbreaks, mean 11.2 cases and 48 days duration), severe (11%, mean 29.7 cases and 60 days), contained (37%, mean 3.5 cases and 13 days) and late-onset (14%, mean 5.4 cases and 17 days). Risk of a COVID-19 outbreak increased with increasing care-home size (for ≥90 beds vs <20, adjusted OR = 55.4, 95% CI 15.0-251.7) and rising community prevalence (OR = 1.2 [1.0-1.4] per 100 cases/100,000 population increase). No routinely available care-home characteristic was associated with outbreak size.

CONCLUSIONS

reducing community prevalence of COVID-19 infection is essential to protect those living in care-homes. More systematic national data collection to understand care-home residents and the homes in which they live is a priority in ensuring we can respond more effectively in future.