Future Alcohol-Attributable Mortality in France Using a Novel Generalizable Age-Period-Cohort Projection Methodology

Global Burden of Disease Due to High Body Mass Index and Projections to 2040: A Study Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of high body mass index (BMI) contributes to an increased risk of various diseases. This study aimed to identify global disease burden trends associated with high BMI from 1990 to 2019 and forecasts up to 2040.

METHODS

Using data from the global burden of disease (GBD) 2019 study, we analysed the number and ratio of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) related to high BMI. The data were analysed by sex, ages, socio-demographic index (SDI), world health organization (WHO) region, and disease level. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to predict high BMI-related disease burden up to 2040.

RESULTS

In 2019, the global burden of disease due to high BMI was 1932.54 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1276.61, 2639.74), representing an increase of 0.18 (95% UI: 0.02, 0.42). Disease burden was consistently higher in males, middle-aged and older populations, particularly noting a narrowing gap between those aged 50-69 years and≥ 70 years in the forecast results until 2040. Additionally, regions with a middle SDI and the North Africa and Middle East WHO super-regions exhibited the highest disease burdens. Also, Cardiovascular disease ranked highest among diseases.

CONCLUSION

The rising disease burden associated with high BMI highlights the need for targeted health policies focussing on older populations, low and middle-income countries, and major conditions like cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Addressing these trends requires an integrated, equity-focused approach to health planning and management to mitigate global impacts.

Screening for alcohol use in primary care: assessing French general practitioner practices

Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for premature death and disability. To tackle this issue, more systematic and accurate screening for at-risk consumption is needed in healthcare systems, especially by general practitioners (GPs). We assessed the frequency of at-risk consumption screening by GPs in France. We also identified characteristics associated with more frequent screening and greater use of validated screening tools by these healthcare providers. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among a representative sample of French GPs. Multinomial logistic regressions were used to identify factors associated with more frequent screening and greater use of validated screening tools. Response rate was of 73%. Of the 2412 participants, 42.8% screened all their patients systematically and repeatedly, while 48.0% never used standardized tools to screen potentially at-risk patients. Among other characteristics, being aware of and using the "early identification and brief intervention" screening strategy, and feeling absolutely comfortable talking with patients about reducing or stopping their alcohol use, were both associated with more frequent screening and use of standardized tools. Our results on at-risk alcohol use screening highlight an improvement over data from previous studies. Nevertheless, better training of French GPs in good alcohol screening practices-specifically, increased screening frequency and greater use of standardized tools-may improve identification of at-risk patients.

A novel community-based therapeutic education program for reducing alcohol-related harms and stigma in people with alcohol use disorders: A quasi-experimental study (ETHER study)

INTRODUCTION

Alcohol use disorder (AUD) is associated with a significant disease burden in France, where alcohol use is deeply rooted in culture. However, the treatment gap is large because of several barriers, including stigmatisation and drinkers' apprehension about total abstinence. However, standardised and evidence-based interventions based on controlled-drinking for people with AUD are lacking. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of a novel community-based French therapeutic patient education (TPE) program for people with AUD named Choizitaconso.

METHODS

A before-after non-randomised quasi-experimental study, named ETHER, was designed and implemented with people living with AUD, over a period of 6 months. The primary outcome was percentage change in the number of alcohol-related harms experienced. Secondary outcomes were percentage changes in psycho-social patient-reported and community-validated outcomes. Participants in the intervention group (n = 34) benefited from the 10-week TPE program Choizitaconso, while the comparison group (n = 58) received standard care. The Kruskall-Wallis and chi-squared or Fisher's exact tests were used to compare before-after changes in variables in both groups. Linear regression models were used to test for the effect of study group on each outcome and to test for the effect of alcohol consumption as a confounder.

RESULTS

At 6 months, all outcomes but one either remained stable or numerically improved in both groups. Internalised stigma significantly improved in the intervention group (p = 0.026) but not in the comparison group (p = 0.207), with a significant group effect (p = 0.014).

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the effectiveness of the Choizitaconso TPE program on community-validated outcomes, especially internalised stigma.

Past and Future Alcohol-Attributable Mortality in Europe

Although alcohol consumption is an important public health issue in Europe, estimates of future alcohol-attributable mortality for European countries are rare, and only apply to the short-term future. We project (age-specific) alcohol-attributable mortality up to 2060 in 26 European countries, after a careful assessment of past trends. For this purpose we used population-level country-, sex-, age- (20-84) and year-specific (1990-2016) alcohol-attributable mortality fractions (AAMF) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, which we adjusted at older ages. To these data we apply an advanced age-period-cohort projection methodology, that avoids unrealistic future differences and crossovers between sexes and countries. We project that in the future, AAMF levels will decline in all countries, and will converge across countries and sexes. For 2060, projected AAMF are, on average, 5.1% among men and 1.4% among women, whereas in 2016 these levels were 10.1% and 3.3%, respectively. For men, AAMF is projected to be higher in Eastern and South-western Europe than in North-western Europe. All in all, the share of mortality due to alcohol is projected to eventually decline in all 26 European countries. Achieving these projected declines will, however, require strong ongoing public health action, particularly for selected Eastern and North-western European countries.