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Conforti F, Pala L, Sala I, Oriecuia C, De Pas T, Specchia C, Graffeo R, Pagan E, Queirolo P, Pennacchioli E, Colleoni M, Viale G, Bagnardi V, Gelber RD. Evaluation of pathological complete response as surrogate endpoint in neoadjuvant randomised clinical trials of early stage breast cancer: systematic review and meta-analysis. BMJ 2021; 375:e066381. [PMID: 34933868 PMCID: PMC8689398 DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2021-066381] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/16/2021] [Indexed: 01/12/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To evaluate pathological complete response as a surrogate endpoint for disease-free survival and overall survival in regulatory neoadjuvant trials of early stage breast cancer. DESIGN Systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES Medline, Embase, and Scopus to 1 December 2020. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR STUDY SELECTION Randomised clinical trials that tested neoadjuvant chemotherapy given alone or combined with other treatments, including anti-human epidermal growth factor 2 (anti-HER2) drugs, targeted treatments, antivascular agents, bisphosphonates, and immune checkpoint inhibitors. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS Trial level associations between the surrogate endpoint pathological complete response and disease-free survival and overall survival. METHODS A weighted regression analysis was performed on log transformed treatment effect estimates (hazard ratio for disease-free survival and overall survival and relative risk for pathological complete response), and the coefficient of determination (R2) was used to quantify the association. The secondary objective was to explore heterogeneity of results in preplanned subgroups analysis, stratifying trials according treatment type in the experimental arm, definition used for pathological complete response (breast and lymph nodes v breast only), and biological features of the disease (HER2 positive or triple negative breast cancer). The surrogate threshold effect was also evaluated, indicating the minimum value of the relative risk for pathological complete response necessary to confidently predict a non-null effect on hazard ratio for disease-free survival or overall survival. RESULTS 54 randomised clinical trials comprising a total of 32 611 patients were included in the analysis. A weak association was observed between the log(relative risk) for pathological complete response and log(hazard ratio) for both disease-free survival (R2=0.14, 95% confidence interval 0.00 to 0.29) and overall survival (R2 =0.08, 0.00 to 0.22). Similar results were found across all subgroups evaluated, independently of the definition used for pathological complete response, treatment type in the experimental arm, and biological features of the disease. The surrogate threshold effect was 5.19 for disease-free survival but was not estimable for overall survival. Consistent results were confirmed in three sensitivity analyses: excluding small trials (<200 patients enrolled), excluding trials with short median follow-up (<24 months), and replacing the relative risk for pathological complete response with the absolute difference of pathological complete response rates between treatment arms. CONCLUSION A lack of surrogacy of pathological complete response was identified at trial level for both disease-free survival and overall survival. The findings suggest that pathological complete response should not be used as primary endpoint in regulatory neoadjuvant trials of early stage breast cancer.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fabio Conforti
- Division of Melanoma, Sarcomas and Rare Tumors, IEO, European Institute of Oncology, IRCCS, Milan, Italy
| | - Laura Pala
- Division of Melanoma, Sarcomas and Rare Tumors, IEO, European Institute of Oncology, IRCCS, Milan, Italy
| | - Isabella Sala
- Department of Statistics and Quantitative Methods, University of Milan-Bicocca, Milan, Italy
| | - Chiara Oriecuia
- Department of Clinical and Experimental Sciences, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy
| | - Tommaso De Pas
- Division of Melanoma, Sarcomas and Rare Tumors, IEO, European Institute of Oncology, IRCCS, Milan, Italy
| | - Claudia Specchia
- Department of Molecular and Translational Medicine, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy
| | - Rossella Graffeo
- Breast Unit of Southern Switzerland, Oncology Institute of Southern Switzerland, Bellinzona, Switzerland
| | - Eleonora Pagan
- Department of Statistics and Quantitative Methods, University of Milan-Bicocca, Milan, Italy
| | - Paola Queirolo
- Division of Melanoma, Sarcomas and Rare Tumors, IEO, European Institute of Oncology, IRCCS, Milan, Italy
| | - Elisabetta Pennacchioli
- Division of Melanoma, Sarcomas and Rare Tumors, IEO, European Institute of Oncology, IRCCS, Milan, Italy
| | - Marco Colleoni
- Division of Medical Senology, IEO, European Institute of Oncology IRCCS, Milan, Italy
| | - Giuseppe Viale
- Department of Pathology, IEO, European Institute of Oncology, IRCCS, Milan, Italy
- University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Vincenzo Bagnardi
- Department of Statistics and Quantitative Methods, University of Milan-Bicocca, Milan, Italy
| | - Richard D Gelber
- Medical School, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, and Frontier Science and Technology Research Foundation, Boston, MA, USA
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Affiliation(s)
- Brent S Rose
- Brent S. Rose, Harvard Radiation Oncology Program, Boston, MA; Eric P. Winer, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA; and Harvey J. Mamon, Brigham and Women's Hospital and Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA
| | - Eric P Winer
- Brent S. Rose, Harvard Radiation Oncology Program, Boston, MA; Eric P. Winer, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA; and Harvey J. Mamon, Brigham and Women's Hospital and Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA
| | - Harvey J Mamon
- Brent S. Rose, Harvard Radiation Oncology Program, Boston, MA; Eric P. Winer, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA; and Harvey J. Mamon, Brigham and Women's Hospital and Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA
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Berruti A, Amoroso V, Gallo F, Bertaglia V, Simoncini E, Pedersini R, Ferrari L, Bottini A, Bruzzi P, Sormani MP. Pathologic complete response as a potential surrogate for the clinical outcome in patients with breast cancer after neoadjuvant therapy: a meta-regression of 29 randomized prospective studies. J Clin Oncol 2014; 32:3883-91. [PMID: 25349292 DOI: 10.1200/jco.2014.55.2836] [Citation(s) in RCA: 163] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/06/2023] Open
Abstract
PURPOSE To assess the role of pathologic complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant therapy as surrogate end point of disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with breast cancer, we performed a trial-based meta-regression of randomized studies comparing different neoadjuvant systemic treatments. METHODS The systematic literature search included electronic databases and proceedings of oncologic meetings. Endocrine therapy trials were excluded. Treatment effects on DFS and OS were expressed as hazard ratios (HRs), and treatment effects on pCR were expressed as odds ratios (ORs). A weighted regression analysis was performed on log-transformed treatment effect estimates to test the association between treatment effects on the surrogate outcome and treatment effects on the clinical outcome. RESULTS Twenty-nine trials, 59 arms, and 30 comparisons, for a total of 14,641 patients, were included in the analysis. Using the complete set of data, the regression of either the log(HR) for DFS or the log(HR) for OS on the log(OR) for pCR demonstrated only weak associations (R(2) = 0.08; 95% CI, 0 to 0.47; and R(2) = 0.09; 95% CI, 0.01 to 0.41, respectively). Better associations were found in an exploratory analysis assessing a subset of trials comparing intensified/dose-dense chemotherapy versus standard-dose regimens (DFS: R(2) = 0.79; 95% CI, 0.26 to 0.95; P = .003; and OS: R(2) = 0.57; 95% CI, 0.19 to 0.93; P = .03). CONCLUSION This meta-regression analysis of 29 heterogeneous neoadjuvant trials does not support the use of pCR as a surrogate end point for DFS and OS in patients with breast cancer. However, pCR may potentially meet the criteria of surrogacy with specific systemic therapies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alfredo Berruti
- Alfredo Berruti, Vito Amoroso, and Laura Ferrari, University of Brescia at Spedali Civili Hospital; Edda Simoncini and Rebecca Pedersini, Spedali Civili Hospital, Brescia; Fabio Gallo and Maria Pia Sormani, University of Genoa; Paolo Bruzzi, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico San Martino, Istituto Nazionale per la Ricerca sul Cancro, Genoa; Valentina Bertaglia, University of Turin, at San Luigi Gonzaga Hospital, Orbassano; and Alberto Bottini, Istituti Ospitalieri Hospital, Cremona, Italy.
| | - Vito Amoroso
- Alfredo Berruti, Vito Amoroso, and Laura Ferrari, University of Brescia at Spedali Civili Hospital; Edda Simoncini and Rebecca Pedersini, Spedali Civili Hospital, Brescia; Fabio Gallo and Maria Pia Sormani, University of Genoa; Paolo Bruzzi, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico San Martino, Istituto Nazionale per la Ricerca sul Cancro, Genoa; Valentina Bertaglia, University of Turin, at San Luigi Gonzaga Hospital, Orbassano; and Alberto Bottini, Istituti Ospitalieri Hospital, Cremona, Italy
| | - Fabio Gallo
- Alfredo Berruti, Vito Amoroso, and Laura Ferrari, University of Brescia at Spedali Civili Hospital; Edda Simoncini and Rebecca Pedersini, Spedali Civili Hospital, Brescia; Fabio Gallo and Maria Pia Sormani, University of Genoa; Paolo Bruzzi, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico San Martino, Istituto Nazionale per la Ricerca sul Cancro, Genoa; Valentina Bertaglia, University of Turin, at San Luigi Gonzaga Hospital, Orbassano; and Alberto Bottini, Istituti Ospitalieri Hospital, Cremona, Italy
| | - Valentina Bertaglia
- Alfredo Berruti, Vito Amoroso, and Laura Ferrari, University of Brescia at Spedali Civili Hospital; Edda Simoncini and Rebecca Pedersini, Spedali Civili Hospital, Brescia; Fabio Gallo and Maria Pia Sormani, University of Genoa; Paolo Bruzzi, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico San Martino, Istituto Nazionale per la Ricerca sul Cancro, Genoa; Valentina Bertaglia, University of Turin, at San Luigi Gonzaga Hospital, Orbassano; and Alberto Bottini, Istituti Ospitalieri Hospital, Cremona, Italy
| | - Edda Simoncini
- Alfredo Berruti, Vito Amoroso, and Laura Ferrari, University of Brescia at Spedali Civili Hospital; Edda Simoncini and Rebecca Pedersini, Spedali Civili Hospital, Brescia; Fabio Gallo and Maria Pia Sormani, University of Genoa; Paolo Bruzzi, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico San Martino, Istituto Nazionale per la Ricerca sul Cancro, Genoa; Valentina Bertaglia, University of Turin, at San Luigi Gonzaga Hospital, Orbassano; and Alberto Bottini, Istituti Ospitalieri Hospital, Cremona, Italy
| | - Rebecca Pedersini
- Alfredo Berruti, Vito Amoroso, and Laura Ferrari, University of Brescia at Spedali Civili Hospital; Edda Simoncini and Rebecca Pedersini, Spedali Civili Hospital, Brescia; Fabio Gallo and Maria Pia Sormani, University of Genoa; Paolo Bruzzi, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico San Martino, Istituto Nazionale per la Ricerca sul Cancro, Genoa; Valentina Bertaglia, University of Turin, at San Luigi Gonzaga Hospital, Orbassano; and Alberto Bottini, Istituti Ospitalieri Hospital, Cremona, Italy
| | - Laura Ferrari
- Alfredo Berruti, Vito Amoroso, and Laura Ferrari, University of Brescia at Spedali Civili Hospital; Edda Simoncini and Rebecca Pedersini, Spedali Civili Hospital, Brescia; Fabio Gallo and Maria Pia Sormani, University of Genoa; Paolo Bruzzi, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico San Martino, Istituto Nazionale per la Ricerca sul Cancro, Genoa; Valentina Bertaglia, University of Turin, at San Luigi Gonzaga Hospital, Orbassano; and Alberto Bottini, Istituti Ospitalieri Hospital, Cremona, Italy
| | - Alberto Bottini
- Alfredo Berruti, Vito Amoroso, and Laura Ferrari, University of Brescia at Spedali Civili Hospital; Edda Simoncini and Rebecca Pedersini, Spedali Civili Hospital, Brescia; Fabio Gallo and Maria Pia Sormani, University of Genoa; Paolo Bruzzi, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico San Martino, Istituto Nazionale per la Ricerca sul Cancro, Genoa; Valentina Bertaglia, University of Turin, at San Luigi Gonzaga Hospital, Orbassano; and Alberto Bottini, Istituti Ospitalieri Hospital, Cremona, Italy
| | - Paolo Bruzzi
- Alfredo Berruti, Vito Amoroso, and Laura Ferrari, University of Brescia at Spedali Civili Hospital; Edda Simoncini and Rebecca Pedersini, Spedali Civili Hospital, Brescia; Fabio Gallo and Maria Pia Sormani, University of Genoa; Paolo Bruzzi, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico San Martino, Istituto Nazionale per la Ricerca sul Cancro, Genoa; Valentina Bertaglia, University of Turin, at San Luigi Gonzaga Hospital, Orbassano; and Alberto Bottini, Istituti Ospitalieri Hospital, Cremona, Italy
| | - Maria Pia Sormani
- Alfredo Berruti, Vito Amoroso, and Laura Ferrari, University of Brescia at Spedali Civili Hospital; Edda Simoncini and Rebecca Pedersini, Spedali Civili Hospital, Brescia; Fabio Gallo and Maria Pia Sormani, University of Genoa; Paolo Bruzzi, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico San Martino, Istituto Nazionale per la Ricerca sul Cancro, Genoa; Valentina Bertaglia, University of Turin, at San Luigi Gonzaga Hospital, Orbassano; and Alberto Bottini, Istituti Ospitalieri Hospital, Cremona, Italy
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Saquib N, Flatt SW, Natarajan L, Thomson CA, Bardwell WA, Caan B, Rock CL, Pierce JP. Weight gain and recovery of pre-cancer weight after breast cancer treatments: evidence from the women's healthy eating and living (WHEL) study. Breast Cancer Res Treat 2006; 105:177-86. [PMID: 17123151 DOI: 10.1007/s10549-006-9442-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 142] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/19/2006] [Accepted: 10/24/2006] [Indexed: 01/27/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE To examine predictors of weight gain following breast cancer diagnosis and subsequent return to pre-cancer weight. OBJECTIVES To determine (1) the associations of anti-neoplastic chemotherapy and/or, Tamoxifen((R)) therapy on weight change following breast cancer diagnosis, (2) whether chemotherapy modified the effect of specific demographic and tumor characteristics on weight gain, (3) the proportion and characteristics of women who gained significant weight on chemotherapy and returned to their pre-cancer weight during follow-up. SUBJECTS AND METHODS Participants were 3088 breast cancer survivors, aged 27-74 years. Weight was measured at baseline and years 1 through 6; pre-cancer weight was self-reported. Cancer stage and treatment modalities were obtained by medical record review; demographic and physical activity data were obtained from questionnaires. Weight gain of >/=5% body weight following cancer diagnosis was considered significant. RESULTS Chemotherapy was significantly associated with weight gain (OR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.12, 2.43) and Tamoxifen((R)) was not (OR = 1.03, 95% CI = 0.71, 1.51). Tamoxifen((R)) did not modify the effect of either chemotherapy or its different regimens on weight gain. Both types (anthracycline: OR = 1.63, p-value = 0.01, non-anthracycline: OR = 1.79, p = 0.003) and all regimens of chemotherapy (AC: OR = 1.55, p-value = 0.01, CAF: OR = 1.83, p = 0.003, CMF: OR = 1.76, p = 0.004) were associated with weight gain but the associations were not different from one another. Only 10% of participants returned to their pre-cancer diagnosis weight at the follow-up visits; the degree of initial gain (p for trend <0.0001) predicted that return. CONCLUSION Chemotherapy was associated with clinically meaningful weight gain, and a return to initial weight following weight gain was unlikely.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nazmus Saquib
- Cancer Prevention and Control Program, Moores UCSD Cancer Center, University of California, 9500 Gilman Drive, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0901, USA
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