A risk score to predict disease-free survival in patients not achieving a pathological complete remission after preoperative chemotherapy for breast cancer

Development, verification, and comparison of a risk stratification model integrating residual cancer burden to predict individual prognosis in early-stage breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant therapy

Background

A favorable model for predicting disease-free survival (DFS) and stratifying prognostic risk in breast cancer (BC) treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) is lacking. The aim of the current study was to formulate an excellent model specially for predicting prognosis in these patients.

Patients and methods

Between January 2012 and December 2015, 749 early-stage BC patients who received NAC in Xijing hospital were included. Patients were randomly assigned to a training cohort (n = 563) and an independent cohort (n = 186). A prognostic model was created and subsequently validated. Predictive performance and discrimination were further measured and compared with other models.

Results

Clinical American Joint Committee on Cancer stage, grade, estrogen receptor expression, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status and treatment, Ki-67 expression, lymphovascular invasion, and residual cancer burden were identified as independent prognostic variables for BC treated with NAC. The C-index of the model consistently outperformed other available models as well as single independent factors with 0.78, 0.80, 0.75, 0.82, and 0.77 in the training cohort, independent cohort, luminal BC, HER2-positive BC, and triple-negative BC, respectively. With the optimal cut-off values (280 and 360) selected by X-tile, patients were categorized as low-risk (total points ≤280), moderate-risk (280 < total points ≤ 360), and high-risk (total points >360) groups presenting significantly different 5-year DFS of 89.9%, 56.9%, and 27.7%, respectively.

Conclusions

In patients with BC, the first model including residual cancer burden index was demonstrated to predict the survival of individuals with favorable performance and discrimination. Furthermore, the risk stratification generated by it could determine the risk level of recurrence in whole early-stage BC cohort and subtype-specific cohorts, help tailor personalized intensive treatment, and select comparable study cohort in clinical trials.

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Establishing the first risk stratification nomogram for BC treated with NAC and validate its performance in BC cohorts.

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Incorporating residual cancer burden index into predictive nomogram for the first time.

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Predictive model can be utilized to predict DFS for all early-stage BC treated with NAC.

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Performing a continuous rather than categorized model to predict individual survival.

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The risk stratification can be used to select comparable population in trial design.

Development and validation of a risk stratification nomogram for predicting prognosis in bone metastatic breast cancer: A population-based study

ABSTRACT

Bone metastasis seriously affects the survival of breast cancer. Therefore, the study aimed to explore the independent prognostic factors in bone metastatic breast cancer (BMBC) and to construct a prognostic nomogram that can accurately predict the survival of BMBC and strictly divide the patients into different risk stratification.Four thousand three hundred seventy six patients with BMBC from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database in 2010 to 2015 were collected and randomly divided into training and validation cohort. Multivariate Cox regression identified the independent prognostic factors of BMBC. A nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) in BMBC was created using R software. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated by plotting receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves.Marital status, race, age, T stage, tumor grade, estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, lung metastasis, chemotherapy, and breast surgery were identified as independent prognostic factors for CSS of BMBC. The area under the ROC curve at 1-, 3-, and 5-year of the nomogram were 0.775, 0.756, and 0.717 in the internal validation and 0.785, 0.737, and 0.735 in the external validation, respectively. Calibration curves further confirmed the unbiased prediction of the model. Kaplan-Meier analysis verified the excellent risk stratification of our model.The first prognostic nomogram for BMBC constructed in our study can accurately predict the survival of BMBC, which may provide a practical tool to help clinicians evaluate prognosis and stratify the prognostic risk for BMBC, thereby determining which patients should be given intensive treatment and optimizing individual treatment strategies for BMBC.

Validation of a Novel Nomogram for Prediction of Local Relapse after Surgery for Invasive Breast Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Around 7% of women who undergo breast-conserving surgery (BCS) or mastectomy are at risk of developing ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR). When assessing risks that, like that of IBTR, depend on multiple clinicopathological variables, nomograms are the predictive tools of choice. In this study, two independent nomograms were constructed to estimate the individualized risk of IBTR after breast surgery.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In this retrospective study, 18,717 consecutive patients with primary invasive breast cancer were enrolled. The training set used for building the nomograms comprised 15,124 patients (11,627 treated with BCS and 3497 with mastectomy), while the validation set included 3593 women (2565 BCS and 1028 mastectomy). Median follow-up time was 8 years in the training set and 6 years in the validation set. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify independent factors for IBTR. Two separated nomograms were constructed on multivariate models for BCS and mastectomy.

RESULTS

The factors that associated with IBTR after either BCS or mastectomy were identified. The two multivariable models were used to build nomograms for the prediction of IBTR 1 year, 5 years, and 10 years after BCS or after mastectomy. Five-year and 10-year IBTR rates in the BCS training set were equal to 3.50% and 7.00%, respectively, and to 5.39% and 7.94% in the mastectomy training set. The nomograms were subsequently validated with c-index values of 0.77 and 0.69 in the BCS and mastectomy validation sets, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomograms presented in this study provide clinicians and patients with a valuable decision-making tool for choosing between different treatment options for invasive breast cancer.

Development and validation of a nomogram incorporating axillary lymph node ratio to predict survival in node-positive breast cancer patients after neoadjuvant chemotherapy

Objective

Over the past decade, several studies have highlighted that axillary lymph node ratio (ratio of involved over excised axillary lymph nodes) was a superior predictor for survival outcomes compared with ypN staging. Thus, this study aimed to integrate the prognostic value of axillary lymph node ratio to improve individualized prediction of survival in node-positive breast cancer patients after neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

Methods

A clinical data of 339 node-positive breast cancer patients after neoadjuvant chemotherapy from two independent centers were retrospectively reviewed. A nomogram incorporating axillary lymph node ratio was constructed to predict disease-free survival based on Cox proportional hazards model. The discrimination, calibration ability, and clinical usefulness of the axillary lymph node ratio-based model were evaluated using C-index, calibration curve, risk group stratification and decision curve analysis and were compared with the TNM staging system.

Results

Independent prognostic factors for disease-free survival were age, pathological T stage, axillary lymph node ratio, histological grade, estrogen receptor status, Ki67 and lymphovascular invasion, which were entered into the nomogram. The C-index of the axillary lymph node ratio-based nomogram was higher than that of the TNM staging system (0.773 vs 0.610). The calibration plot indicated close agreement between model predictions and actual observations. Based on the risk group stratification of the nomogram, Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated significant differences between the low-risk and high-risk groups (P < 0.0001).

Conclusions

The axillary lymph node ratio-based nomogram provided more accurate individualized risk prediction of disease-free survival in node-positive breast cancer patients after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. This practical tool may assist oncologists in selecting the high-risk patients who are in need of a specific treatment strategy.

Predictive and prognostic value of Matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) - 9 in neoadjuvant chemotherapy for triple-negative breast cancer patients

Background

This study aimed to investigate the clinical utility of serum and histological MMP-9 detection during neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) for triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC).

Methods

A total of 303 TNBC patients who underwent weekly paclitaxel plus carboplatin treatments followed by surgical resection were included in this study. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was used to detect the serum level of Matrix metalloproteinase-9 (sMMP-9) at baseline and prior to surgery. Immunohistochemistry was used to detect histological MMP-9 (hMMP-9) expression in patients with residual tumors after NAC. The value of MMP-9 to predict the response to NAC and patient survival was studied.

Results

Of the 303 patients, 103 (34.0%) patients experienced pathological complete response (pCR) after completion of NAC. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that the relative change in sMMP-9, rather than sMMP-9 at baseline or surgery, had a remarkable predictive value for pCR. Each 1 ng/ml decrease in sMMP-9 after NAC was shown to result in a 0.3% increase in pCR rate. Additionally, in survival analyses, hMMP-9 expression in residual tumors was independently correlated with disease-free survival for non-pCR responders (P < 0.001).

Conclusions

Our findings indicate that monitoring serum MMP-9 and detection of histological MMP-9 could help identify TNBC patients who will respond to NAC and will display varying risks of disease relapse. MMP-9 may serve as a predictive and prognostic biomarker for tailoring and modifying the NAC strategy for TNBC.

Establishment and external validation of a prognostic model for predicting disease-free survival and risk stratification in breast cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy

Background

The eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system for survival prediction and risk stratification in breast cancer (BC) patients after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT) is of limited efficacy. This study aimed to establish a novel prognostic nomogram for predicting disease-free survival (DFS) in BC patients after NCT.

Patients and methods

A total of 567 BC patients treated with NCT, from two independent centers, were included in this study. Cox proportional-hazards regression (CPHR) analysis was conducted to identify the independent prognostic factors for DFS, in order to develop a model. Subsequently, the discrimination and calibration ability of the prognostic model were assessed in terms of its concordance index (C-index), risk group stratification, and calibration curve. The performance of the nomogram was compared with that of the eighth edition of the AJCC TNM staging system via C-index.

Results

Based on the CPHR model, eight prognostic predictors were screened and entered into the nomogram. The prognostic model showed better performance (p<0.01) in terms of DFS prediction (C-index: 0.738; 95% CI: 0.698-0.779) than the eighth edition of the AJCC TNM staging system (C-index: 0.644; 95% CI: 0.604-0.684). Stratification into three risk groups highlighted significant differences between the survival curves in the training cohort and those in the validation cohort. The calibration curves for likelihood of 3- and 5-year DFS indicated optimal agreement between nomogram predictions and actual observations.

Conclusion

We constructed and externally validated a novel nomogram scoring system for individualized DFS estimation in BC patients treated with NCT. This user-friendly predictive tool may help oncologists to make optimal clinical decisions.

Clinicopathological predictors of long-term benefit in breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy

AIM

To investigate the survival impact of clinicopathological factors, including pathological complete response (pCR) and tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (sTIL) levels according to subtypes, in breast cancer (BC) patients who received neo-adjuvant chemotherapy (NAC).

METHODS

We evaluated 435 BC patients who presented and received NAC at the Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Neoplasicas from 2003 to 2014. sTIL was analyzed as the proportion of tumor stroma occupied by lymphocytes, and was prospectively evaluated on hematoxylin and eosin-stained sections of the preNAC core biopsy. pCR was considered in the absence of infiltrating cancer cells in primary tumor and axillary lymph nodes. Analysis of statistical association between clinical pathological features, sTIL, pCR and survival were carried out using SPSSvs19.

RESULTS

Median age was 49 years (range 24-84 years) and the most frequent clinical stage was IIIB (58.3%). Luminal A, Luminal B, HER2-enriched and (triple-negative) TN phenotype was found in 24.6%, 37.9%, 17.7% and 19.8%, respectively. pCR was observed in 11% and median percentage of sTIL was 40% (2%-95%) in the whole population. pCR was associated to Ct1-2 (P = 0.045) and to high sTIL (P = 0.029) in the whole population. There was a slight trend towards significance for sTIL (P = 0.054) in Luminal A. sTIL was associated with grade III (P < 0.001), no-Luminal A subtype (P < 0.001), RE-negative (P < 0.001), PgR-negative (P < 0.001), HER2-positive (P = 0.002) and pCR (P = 0.029) in the whole population. Longer disease-free survival was associated with grade I-II (P = 0.006), cN0 (P < 0.001), clinical stage II (P = 0.004), ER-positive (P < 0.001), PgR-positive (P < 0.001), luminal A (P < 0.001) and pCR (P = 0.002). Longer disease-free survival was associated with grade I-II in Luminal A (P < 0.001), N0-1 in Luminal A (P = 0.045) and TNBC (P = 0.01), clinical stage II in Luminal A (P = 0.003) and TNBC (P = 0.038), and pCR in TNBC (P < 0.001). Longer overall survival was associated with grade I-II (P < 0.001), ER-positive (P < 0.001), PgR-positive (P < 0.001), Luminal A (P < 0.001), cN0 (P = 0.002) and pCR (P = 0.002) in the whole population. Overall survival was associated with clinical stage II (P = 0.017) in Luminal A, older age (P = 0.042) in Luminal B, and pCR in TNBC (P = 0.005).

CONCLUSION

Predictive and prognostic values of clinicopathological features, like pCR and sTIL, differ depending on the evaluated molecular subtype

Igf-Ii Mrna Expression in Breast Cancer: Predictive Value and Relationship to Other Prognostic Factors

Purpose

Insulin-like growth factor-II (IGF-II) is an important regulator of tumor growth in breast cancer. In this study we have examined the prognostic value of IGF-II mRNA expression in breast cancer and its relationship to other predictive parameters.

Patients

Sixty-eight women with infiltrating ductal carcinoma were given the same treatments including mastectomy and antitumoral therapies and followed up for 5 years.

Results

The overall 5-year survival rate was 73.5% (55/68). IGF-II mRNA was expressed in 33/64 patients (51.6%) and had no significant impact on survival. The expression of estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PgR) did not significantly affect the 5-year survival, but in the presence of an IGF-II mRNA signal, the survival of ER- and PgR-negative patients (n=9) was lower than that of ER- and PgR-positive patients (n=15), although the difference was not significant. The 5-year survival was not significantly different between Ki-67-positive and negative patients, but in the IGF-II positive group Ki-67-positive patients (n=7) had a significantly poorer prognosis than Ki-67-negative patients (n=26). The expression of p53 protein was associated with a poorer prognosis: 6/11 (54.5%) p53-positive patients died in the first 26 months of follow-up and 5 of these 6 patients (83.3%) also had positive IGF-II mRNA expression.

Conclusions

IGF-II mRNA expression per se is not an independent predictive factor in breast cancer but may be a marker of poor prognosis when associated with other prognostic factors such as Ki-67 index and p53 expression.

Aberrant Ki-67 expression through 3'UTR alternative polyadenylation in breast cancers

Ki‐67 (MKI67) is a marker of cellular proliferation of cancer. Here, we show that Ki‐67 is post‐transcriptionally regulated through alternative polyadenylation (APA) and microRNAs in breast cancer. We show that shortening of the Ki‐67 3′UTR results in the loss of the binding sites for the suppressive miRNAs and thus renders the transcript with a shortened 3′UTR insusceptible to miRNA‐mediated suppression. This APA‐mediated shortening of the Ki‐67 3′UTR contributes to increased mRNA stability and enhanced translational efficiency. In summary, our results not only highlight the post‐transcriptional regulation of Ki‐67 involving APA and microRNAs but also suggest that Ki‐67 3′UTR disruption could serve as a molecular marker in breast cancer.

Prognostic values of Ki-67 in neoadjuvant setting for breast cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

AIM

To assess the prognostic values of Ki-67 in neoadjuvant setting for breast cancer patients.

METHODS

PubMed and EMBASE were searched. Revman software was used to conduct random-effect model meta-analysis.

RESULTS

49 studies (14,076 patients) were included. High Ki-67 before and after neoadjuvant chemotherapy were associated with worse overall survival (OS; before: hazard ratio [HR]: 2.29; 95% CI: 1.42-3.69; after: HR: 2.24; 95% CI: 1.82-2.75) and disease-free survival (DFS; before: HR: 1.54; 95% CI: 1.23-1.95; after: HR: 2.08; 95% CI: 1.83-2.37). Low/no reduction or increase might be associated with worse DFS (HR: 2.13; 95% CI: 1.51-3.02) and OS.

CONCLUSION

Ki-67 before and after neoadjuvant chemotherapy, as well as the change could predict the prognosis for breast cancer patients.

Weekly paclitaxel plus carboplatin with or without trastuzumab as neoadjuvant chemotherapy for HER2-positive breast cancer: loss of HER2 amplification and its impact on response and prognosis

PURPOSE

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT) plus anti-HER2 agents are the standard of care for locally advanced HER2-positive breast cancer. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence and prognostic impact of HER2 loss in patients with HER2-positive disease treated with neoadjuvant therapy with or without trastuzumab.

METHODS

549 consecutive HER2-positive patients were included in this study. 379 patients were treated with paclitaxel, carboplatin, and trastuzumab (PCH cohort) and 170 were treated with paclitaxel and carboplatin only (PC cohort). Conversion of biomarkers before and after NCT was evaluated via immunohistochemistry (IHC) test. Cox regression model was used to investigate prognostic markers to relapse-free survival (RFS).

RESULTS

50.9% patients were considered as pCR responder in PCH cohort, whereas only 25.9% of patients experienced pCR in PC cohort (P < 0.001). HER2 loss were more frequently shown in PCH cohort with a proportion of 19.8%, compared to 9.4% in PC cohort (P = 0.009). In PCH cohort, patients with a loss of HER2 expression tended to have a higher risk of relapse compared to patients with maintained HER2 expression (HR = 2.639, 95% CI 1.103-6.311, P = 0.029). However, it did not correlate to patient outcome in the PC cohort (P = 0.296). Loss of HER2 was also correlated to ER conversion in PCH cohort.

CONCLUSION

Our study has provided new evidence that anti-HER2 treatment has a significant impact on HER2 loss. Far more importantly, the loss of HER2 amplification could identify non-pCR patients with high risk of disease relapse, which might help in tailoring following systemic treatment.

Value of Ki-67 expression in triple-negative breast cancer before and after neoadjuvant chemotherapy with weekly paclitaxel plus carboplatin

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT) is one of the main treatment strategies for patients with locally advanced breast cancer. In this study, we focused on the predictive and prognostic value of Ki-67 in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) patients who received NCT. Data from 280 patients with stage II–III TNBC were collected. All patients were treated according to the same protocol with weekly paclitaxel and carboplatin. The overall pCR rate was 33.9%. Both the categorical and linear Ki-67 were independently correlated with pCR (P < 0.001). There were also statistically significant differences among Ki-67 categories with respect to clinical response (P < 0.001), Miller-Payne (MP) grades (P < 0.001), and node status (P < 0.001). A significant reduction of Ki-67 after NCT was most likely observed in patients with a relatively better response. In the multivariate model for non-pCR patients, Ki-67 reduction presented an independent prognostic value for relapse of disease (HR = 0.986, 95% CI: 0.978–0.994; P = 0.001). This study had indicated that the primary Ki-67 might help in further classifying TNBCs into subtypes with different responses to chemotherapy and a significant reduction of Ki-67 after treatment could indicate a favorable prognosis in non-pCR patients.

Progesterone receptor loss identifies luminal-type local advanced breast cancer with poor survival in patients who fail to achieve a pathological complete response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy

The aim of this study was to investigate the potential of progesterone receptor (PgR) as a biomarker for differentiating estrogen receptor (ER)-positive patients who fail to achieve a pathological complete response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT) with different prognoses. A total of 327 consecutive, locally advanced breast cancer patients with ER-positive disease were included in this study. According to their HER-2 and Ki-67 status, the patients were classified into the Luminal-A or Luminal-B subtype. We evaluated the clinical and pathological response to NCT and relapse or death occurring during follow-up according to PgR status in the different luminal subtypes. In the Luminal-B subtype, patients with PgR- tumors had a relatively higher pathological complete response (pCR) rate (29.5% vs. 4.7% pCR, P < 0.001) and Miller-Payne grades (45.5% vs. 23.5% of grade 4-5, P = 0033) compared to PgR+ tumors. In Luminal-B patients with residual tumor after NCT, PgR loss was also independently correlated with poor relapse-free survival (P = 0.017; HR = 0.430; PgR- as a reference) and overall survival (P = 0.013; HR = 0.355; PgR- as a reference). However, in the Luminal-A subtype, there were no statistically significant differences between PgR+ and PgR- disease in response to NCT or survival. Our findings have demonstrated the prognostic value of PgR loss in the neoadjuvant setting, indicating that ER+/PgR- Luminal-B tumors warrant further attention due to their high risk of relapse after primary treatment.

Prognostic Value of Axillary Nodal Ratio after Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy of Doxorubicin/Cyclophosphamide Followed by Docetaxel in Breast Cancer: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to investigate the prognostic value of lymph node (LN) ratio (LNR) in patients with breast cancer after neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

Materials and Methods

This retrospective analysis is based on the data of 814 patientswith stage II/III breast cancer treated with four cycles of doxorubicin/cyclophosphamide followed by four cycles of docetaxel before surgery. We evaluated the clinical significance of LNR (3 categories: low 0-0.20 vs. intermediate 0.21-0.65 vs. high 0.66-1.00) using a Cox proportional regression model.

Results

A total of 799 patients underwent breast surgery. Pathologic complete response (pCR, ypT0/isN0) was achieved in 129 patients (16.1%) (hormone receptor [HR] +/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 [HER2] –, 34/373 [9.1%]; HER2+, 45/210 [21.4%]; triple negative breast cancer, 50/216 [23.1%]). The mean numbers of involved LN and retrieved LN were 2.70 (range, 0 to 42) and 13.98 (range, 1 to 64), respectively. The mean LNR was 0.17 (low, 574 [71.8%]; intermediate, 170 [21.3%]; high, 55 [6.9%]). In univariate analysis, LNR showed significant association with a worse relapse-free survival (3-year relapse-free survival rate 84.8% in low vs. 66.2% in intermediate vs. 54.3% in high; p < 0.001, log-rank test). In multivariate analysis, LNR did not show significant association with recurrence after adjusting for other clinical factors (age, histologic grade, subtype, ypT stage, ypN stage, lymphatic or vascular invasion, and pCR). In subgroup analysis, the LNR system had good prognostic value in HR+/HER2–subtype.

Conclusion

LNR is not superior to ypN stage in predicting clinical outcome of breast cancer after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. However, the prognostic value of the LNR system in HR+/HER2–patients is notable and worthy of further investigation.

Pathologic response prediction to neoadjuvant chemotherapy utilizing pretreatment near-infrared imaging parameters and tumor pathologic criteria

Introduction

The purpose of this study is to develop a prediction model utilizing tumor hemoglobin parameters measured by ultrasound-guided near-infrared optical tomography (US-NIR) in conjunction with standard pathologic tumor characteristics to predict pathologic response before neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) is given.

Methods

Thirty-four patients’ data were retrospectively analyzed using a multiple logistic regression model to predict response. These patients were split into 30 groups of training (24 tumors) and testing (12 tumors) for cross validation. Tumor vascularity was assessed using US-NIR measurements of total hemoglobin (tHb), oxygenated (oxyHb) and deoxygenated hemoglobin (deoxyHb) concentrations acquired before treatment. Tumor pathologic variables of tumor type, Nottingham score, mitotic index, the estrogen and progesterone receptors and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 acquired before NAC in biopsy specimens were also used in the prediction model. The patients’ pathologic response was graded based on the Miller-Payne system. The overall performance of the prediction models was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The quantitative measures were sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) and the area under the ROC curve (AUC).

Results

Utilizing tumor pathologic variables alone, average sensitivity of 56.8%, average specificity of 88.9%, average PPV of 84.8%, average NPV of 70.9% and average AUC of 84.0% were obtained from the testing data. Among the hemoglobin predictors with and without tumor pathological variables, the best predictor was tHb combined with tumor pathological variables, followed by oxyHb with pathological variables. When tHb was included with tumor pathological variables as an additional predictor, the corresponding measures improved to 79%, 94%, 90%, 86% and 92.4%, respectively. When oxyHb was included with tumor variables as an additional predictor, these measures improved to 77%, 85%, 83%, 83% and 90.6%, respectively. The addition of tHb or oxyHb significantly improved the prediction sensitivity, NPV and AUC compared with using tumor pathological variables alone.

Conclusions

These initial findings indicate that combining widely used tumor pathologic variables with hemoglobin parameters determined by US-NIR may provide a powerful tool for predicting patient pathologic response to NAC before the start of treatment.

Trial registration

ClincalTrials.gov ID: NCT00908609 (registered 22 May 2009)

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13058-014-0456-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Clinical and pathological response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy based on primary tumor reduction is correlated to survival in hormone receptor-positive but not hormone receptor-negative locally advanced breast cancer

PURPOSE

This study was designed to examine the relationship between different methodologies for response evaluation and long-term survival estimation in patients underwent neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT) for breast cancer.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 569 patients who were diagnosed with LABC and received NCT followed by breast and axilla surgery. The RECIST 1.1 criteria and Miller-Payne (MP) grading scale were used to evaluate patient responses to NCT. Univariate and multivariate survival analyses were performed to investigate the correlation between treatment response and long-term patient survival.

RESULTS

Clinical response (RFS [P < 0.001]; OS [P = 0.003]), pathological response evaluated by pCR (RFS [P < 0.001]; OS [P < 0.001]), and MP grade (RFS [P < 0.001]; OS [P < 0.001]) were significant predictors of risks of relapse and survival. However, in hormone receptor-positive (ER and/or PR+) subtypes, the clinical response (P = 0.004 for Luminal-A and P = 0.038 for Luminal-B) and MP grade (P = 0.002 for Luminal-A and P < 0.001 for Luminal-B) significantly predicted RFS independently according to multivariate Cox regression model. MP grade (P = 0.015 for Luminal-A and P = 0.009 for Luminal-B) also was an independent predictor of patients' OS. However, these two methods failed to predict patient survival in hormone receptor-negative (ER and PR-) subtypes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that the value of response evaluation methods varies for different breast cancer subtypes. Conceiving of further prospective approaches for new individualized response-evaluation models are needed in the neoadjuvant setting.

The residual tumor autophagy marker LC3B serves as a prognostic marker in local advanced breast cancer after neoadjuvant chemotherapy

PURPOSE

This study sought to investigate the prognostic value of the autophagy marker microtubule-associated protein chain 3B (LC3B) in patients with residual tumors after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT) for locally advanced breast cancer (LABC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The expression of LC3B in residual breast cancer cells was assessed by immunohistochemistry in surgical specimens from 229 patients diagnosed with histologically proven invasive breast cancer. All patients underwent NCT followed by mastectomy and were considered nonpathologic complete responders (non-pCR) after a pathologic evaluation. The prognostic value of various clinicopathologic factors was evaluated.

RESULTS

The LC3B density was similar between the peripheral and central area of the tumors (P = 0.328) but was significantly lower in the extratumoral area (P < 0.001 and P < 0.001, respectively). Furthermore, LC3B density, which correlated with Beclin-1 expression, Ki-67 index, and breast cancer subtype, served as an independent prognostic factor for both relapse-free survival (RFS; P = 0.012) and overall survival (OS; P = 0.008); the prognostic value of LC3B was most significant in triple-negative patients. Using a combination of LC3B expression and the status of residual involved lymph nodes, the patients were classified into four groups with different risks of relapse and death (P < 0.001 for RFS and P = 0.003 for OS).

CONCLUSION

LC3B can be used as a prognostic marker in patients with non-pCR after NCT for breast cancer, which highlights the importance of autophagy in the biologic behavior of chemoresistant cancer cells. Furthermore, evaluating and targeting autophagy in the neoadjuvant setting may help prevent disease relapse in patients with non-pCR.

Tumor histological subtyping determined by hormone receptors and HER2 status defines different pathological complete response and outcome to dose-dense neoadjuvant chemotherapy in breast cancer patients

PURPOSE

To assess the impact in pathological complete response (pCR) and outcome of two dose-dense neoadjuvant chemotherapy (DDNC) regimens among different histological subtypes determined by hormonal receptor (HR) and HER2 status in breast cancer patients.

METHODS

A total of 127 breast cancer patients were treated with DDNC in two prospective studies. A: adriamycin 40 mg/m(2) on day (d) 1 plus paclitaxel 150 mg/m(2) and gemcitabine 2,000 mg/m(2) on d2 for six cycles (n = 54). B: epirubicin 90 mg/m(2), cyclophosphamide 600 mg/m(2) on d1 for three cycles, followed by paclitaxel 150 mg/m(2) and gemcitabine 2,500 mg/m(2) on d1 ± trastuzumab according to HER2 status (n = 73). Histological subtypes of breast cancer were 49 % HR+/HER2-, 17.5 % HR+/HER2+, 13.5 % HR-/HER2+ and 20 % HR-/HER2-.

RESULTS

pCR (absence of invasive cells in breast and lymph node) was achieved in 35 patients (28 %). The pCR rate was significantly different between histological subtypes: HR+/HER2- (9 %), HR+/HER2+ (23 %), HR-/HER2+ (50 %), HR-/HER2- (56 %) (p < 0.001). The median follow-up was 81 months (r: 15-150 months). HR-/HER2- tumor subtype had a significantly worse DFS compared to HR+/HER2- (p = 0.02), RH+/HER2+ (p = 0.04) and HR-/HER2+ tumor subtypes (p = 0.02). HR-/HER2- tumor subtype had a significantly shorter OS compared to HR+/HER2- (p = 0.007), RH+/HER2+ (p = 0.05), and HR-/HER2+ (p = 0.03) tumor subtypes. However, no significant difference was observed in DFS and OS among HR-/HER2- tumors that achieved a pCR.

CONCLUSIONS

HR-/HER2- and HR-/HER2+ subtypes had a high pCR rate to DDNC. HR-/HER2- tumors had a worse outcome compared to other tumor subtypes but no significant difference was observed among HR-/HER2- tumors that achieved a pCR.

A prognostic model based on combining estrogen receptor expression and Ki-67 value after neoadjuvant chemotherapy predicts clinical outcome in locally advanced breast cancer: extension and analysis of a previously reported cohort of patients

BACKGROUND

Ki-67 expression has gained attention as a breast cancer prognostic factor, however its significance in the remaining malignant cells after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) has been rarely examined. This investigation, extension and analysis of a previously reported cohort of patients, evaluates the significance of Ki-67 and estrogen receptor (ER) expression after NAC in LABC (locally advanced breast cancer).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

clinical stage, tumor size, clinical and pathological lymph node involvement, Ki-67, ER, progesterone receptor (PgR), HER2 expression, grading and clinical response were evaluated before and after NAC in 110 patients with LABC. Ki-67 expression was assessed both in pre and post-therapy histological samples, using >15% positive cells as cut-off value to distinguish high from low Ki-67 expressing tumors.

RESULTS

six patients (5.45%) attained pCR after NAC. A significant relationship between elevated post-CT Ki-67 and ER expression was showed at Cox multivariate analysis of disease free survival (DFS). On univariate analysis high post-chemotherapy Ki-67 and ER status were associated with worse survival; at multivariate model included these results were confirmed. Based on these two parameters, a prognostic model identified two different groups: low risk (low postchemotherapy Ki-67 and ER positive, or either high post-chemotherapy Ki-67 or ER negative), and high risk (high post-chemotherapy Ki-67 and ER negative). The low risk group showed a good prognosis (median OS still not reached), while the high risk group had a worse OS (median 41 months).

CONCLUSIONS

Ki-67 value after NAC and ER status could predict a worse prognosis among LABC patients treated with NAC.

The predictive and prognostic significance of pre- and post-treatment topoisomerase IIα in anthracycline-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy for local advanced breast cancer

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the predictive and prognostic value of topoisomerase IIα (Topo IIα, Topo II) expression in the primary tumors and residual tumors of local advanced breast cancer (LABC) patients being treated with anthracycline-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT).

METHODS

The data from 283 LABC patients who had been treated with anthracycline-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy were collected. The expression of Topo IIα, HER-2 and other biomarkers was determined via immunohistochemical analysis in pre- and post-chemotherapy specimens. The status of pre-treatment biomarkers was correlated with the clinical response determined by the RECIST 1.1 criteria, whereas the post-treatment biomarkers were studied for prognostic value using the Cox model.

RESULTS

By analyzing the complete data from 99 patients, the co-expression of HER-2/Topo IIα was found to be significantly correlated with the clinical response to chemotherapy (Logistic regression P = 0.042). Notably, a 20% alteration in the Topo IIα status during neoadjuvant chemotherapy was found, which could also influence the sensitivity to treatment. With a survival analysis performed in 245 patients with residual tumors after NCT, node metastasis, HER-2 and Ki-67 were independent predictors of patient outcome. However, post-treatment Topo IIα expression demonstrated significant prognostic value in HER-2+ patients (P = 0.002). A relatively lower disease-free survival and overall survival was observed in HER-2+/Topo- patients (log rank P = 0.010 for DFS and P < 0.001 for OS).

CONCLUSION

Topo IIα, together with HER-2, might help to select for patients who could benefit from anthracycline-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy and identify non-complete responders at a higher risk of disease recurrence or death.

The role of immunohistochemistry in breast cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy: an old tool with an enduring prognostic value

BACKGROUND

To assess the molecular subtypes determined by hormonal receptors (HR) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status and the role of proliferation measured by the Ki-67 marker as predictive and prognostic factors in breast cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

METHODS

A total of 127 breast cancer patients were treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy every 2 weeks as part of 2 studies. Study A consisted of the administration of Adriamycin (40 mg/m(2)) on day 1 plus paclitaxel (150 mg/m(2)) and gemcitabine 2000 mg/m(2)) on day 2 for 6 cycles (n = 54). Study B consisted of the administration of epirubicin (90 mg/m(2)), cyclophosphamide (600 mg/m(2)) on day 1 for 3 cycles, followed by the administration of paclitaxel (150 mg/m(2)) and gemcitabine 2500 (mg/m(2)) on day 1 with or without trastuzumab according to HER2 status (n = 73). In study A, patients did not receive trastuzumab regardless of HER2 status. The molecular subtypes of the patients with breast cancer were classified as 49% HR(+)/HER2(-), 17.5% HR(+)/HER2(+), 13.5% HR(-)/HER2(+), and 20% HR(-)/HER2(-).

RESULTS

Pathologic complete response (pCR), defined as the absence of invasive cells in the breast and the lymph nodes, was achieved in 35 (28%) patients. The pCR rate was significantly different between the molecular subtypes of breast cancer, with 9% in HR(+)/HER2(-), 23% in HR(+)/HER2(+), 50% in HR(-)/HER2(+), and 56% in HR(-)/HER2(-) tumors (P < .001). The pCR rate was significantly higher in tumors that had high Ki-67 (≥20%) expression and were HR(-). HER2(+) was associated with a higher trend of pCR but did not reach statistical significance. The median follow-up was 81 months (r = 15-150 months). Patients who achieved a pCR had a significantly lower recurrence (P = .01) and higher overall survival (P = .02) compared with those who did not achieve pCR. A multivariate analysis revealed that pCR (hazard ratio 0.24 [95% CI, 0.07-0.7]; P = .019), the molecular subtype (hazard ratio 0.3 [95% CI, 0.1-0.8]; P = .02), and the Ki-67 index (hazard ratio 3.2 [95% CI, 1.4-7.1]; P = .004) were significant independent predictors of disease-free survival. Similar results were obtained for overall survival, in which the pCR rate (hazard ratio 0.119 [95% CI, 0.028-0.5]; P = .004), the molecular subtype (hazard ratio 0.17 [95% CI, 0.03-0.86]; P = .02), and the Ki-67 index (hazard ratio 3.6 [95% CI, 1.3-9.7]; P = .01) also displayed a significant influence on survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Molecular subtypes and Ki-67 index were independent prognostic factors for disease-free survival and overall survival in breast cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy. A high rate of Ki-67 and HR(-) expression were predictors of pCR.

Heterogeneity of triple-negative breast cancer: histologic subtyping to inform the outcome

BACKGROUND

This study assesses outcome in terms of disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) of special types of triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We identified 8801 women with first primary nonmetastatic breast cancer operated on at the European Institute of Oncology between 1997 and 2005. Of these patients, 781 consecutive patients with immunohistochemically defined TNBC were selected for the analyses. We explored patterns of recurrence by histologic type. Median follow-up was 5.7 years (range 0-13 years).

RESULTS

The 5-year DFS was 77% for TNBC, 68% for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive breast cancer, and 84% and 95% for luminal B and luminal A breast cancer, respectively. From 781 TNBC subtypes, 693 cases (89%) were classified as ductal not otherwise specified (NOS) (invasive ductal carcinoma [IDC]), 29 were classified as apocrine (3.7%), 18 (2.3%) were classified as lobular, 10 (1.2%) were classified as adenoid cystic, and 10 (1.2%) were classified as metaplastic. Five-year DFS and OS were 77% and 84% for patients with ductal carcinoma, 56% and 89% for patients with metaplastic carcinoma, and both 5-year DFS and OS were 100% for patients with adenoid cystic and medullary carcinomas, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Distinct prognostic implications may derive from the specific histotype of TNBC. The identification of these special types has a significant clinical utility and should be considered in therapeutic algorithms.

A risk score based on histopathological features predicts higher risk of distant recurrence in premenopausal patients with lymph node-negative endocrine-responsive breast cancer

PURPOSE

To develop a Risk Score (RS) to predict distant recurrence among premenopausal women with node-negative endocrine-responsive early breast cancer.

METHODS

The Cox model was used to develop the RS using clinical and histopathological features from 378 women participating in the IBCSG Trial VIII who received endocrine therapy alone or following chemotherapy. The performance of the resulting model was validated on a cohort of 1005 patients from a single institution who received endocrine therapy alone.

RESULTS

In a multivariable analysis, the risk of distant recurrence was associated with tumor size, ER, Ki-67 and peritumoral vascular invasion. In the validation cohort, patients with high RS were at greater risk of distant recurrence compared to patients with low RS (HR, 17.41; 95% CI, 5.72-52.95).

CONCLUSION

In premenopausal women with node-negative endocrine-responsive early breast cancer, the RS identifies patients at higher risk of distant recurrence.

A nomogram predicting the probability of primary breast cancer survival at 2- and 5-years using pathological and biological tumor parameters

PURPOSE

Our objective was to develop a nomogram to predict individual overall survival (OS) for primary breast cancer, based on pathological and biological tumor parameters.

METHODS

A retrospective study in a cohort of 180 patients with primary breast cancer was used to build the nomogram. Pathological factors and tumor proteases measured prospectively in primary tumors were used. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to explore the relationship with OS, and regression coefficients were used to build the nomogram. The nomogram was internally validated with 200 bootstrap re-samples.

RESULTS

The final variables included in the nomogram comprised tumor size (P = 0.04), nodal pathological status (P = 0.01), estrogen receptor status (P = 0.04), urokinase plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1; P = 0.02), thymidine kinase (P = 0.03), and cathepsin D (P = 0.004). The predictive accuracy of the nomogram at estimating the probability of OS, at both 2 and 5 years, was respectively 0.874 and 0.832 before and after calibration.

CONCLUSION

A nomogram to predict 2- and 5-year OS in BC, using histological and biological parameters was successfully developed. This prognostic tool should prove useful in decision-making and therapeutic research.

Identifying gaps in the locoregional management of early breast cancer: highlights from the Kyoto Consensus Conference

A consensus conference was held to investigate issues related to the local management of early breast cancer. Here, we highlight the major topics discussed at the conference and propose ideas for future studies. Regarding axillary management, we examined three major issues. First, we discussed whether the use of axillary reverse mapping could clarify the lymphatic system of breast and whether the ipsilateral arm might help avoid lymphedema. Second, the use of an indocyanine green fluorescent navigation system was discussed for intraoperative lymphatic mapping. These new issues should be examined further in practice. Finally, some agreement was reached on the importance of "four-node diagnosis" to aid in the diagnostic accuracy of sentinel nodes. Regarding breast treatment, there was general agreement that the clinical value of surgical margins in predicting local failure was dependent on the tumor's intrinsic biology and subtypes. For patients treated with preoperative chemotherapy, less extensive excision may be feasible in those who respond to systemic therapy in an acceptable manner. Most trials of preoperative chemotherapy lack outcome data on local recurrence. Therefore, there is a need for such data for overview analysis. We also agreed that radiation after mastectomy may be beneficial in node-positive cases where more than four nodes are involved. Throughout the discussions for both invasive and noninvasive disease, the investigation of nomograms was justified for major issues in the decision-making process, such as the presence or absence of microinvasion and the involvement of nonsentinel nodes in sentinel node-positive patients.

Letrozole plus GnRH analogue as preoperative and adjuvant therapy in premenopausal women with ER positive locally advanced breast cancer

Patients with large ER positive tumors candidate to preoperative chemotherapy may also benefit from a concurrent endocrine intervention, but this issue has been scarcely investigated due to concerns arising from unfavorable results emerged from an adjuvant trial of concurrent tamoxifen and chemotherapy. We retrospectively investigated the activity of letrozole plus GnRH analogue (GnRH-a) administered concurrently with preoperative chemotherapy and as adjuvant treatment in premenopausal women with locally advanced ER positive breast cancer consecutively admitted at the European Institute of Oncology. Results were compared with those of a non-randomized unmatched control group of premenopausal women with locally advanced ER positive breast cancer receiving preoperative chemotherapy, followed by tamoxifen and GnRH-a after surgery. Primary endpoints were pathological complete response (pCR) rate, decrease of Ki67 and disease free survival (DFS). One-hundred and nineteen women constituted the study group, while 95 patients served as controls. The pCR rate was 5.0 vs 1.1% in the study and control group, respectively. A statistically significant greater suppression of Ki67 was observed in patients receiving chemoendocrine therapy as compared with controls (P = 0.003). At a median follow up of 59 months, 26 events occurred in the chemoendocrine group and 48 in the control group. Five-year DFS was 78 vs 41% in the study and in the control group, respectively [adjusted HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.27-0.79, P = 0.0047]. The concurrent administration of letrozole and GnRH-a with preoperative chemotherapy was highly effective in premenopausal women with large ER positive breast cancer in terms of decreased proliferation and of improved DFS. Randomized studies are warranted to establish the role of the addition of endocrine therapy to chemotherapy as standard preoperative approach for ER positive locally advanced breast cancer as well as of letrozole in combination with GnRH-a for the treatment of premenopauasal women with early breast cancer.

Long-term outcomes in stage IIIB breast cancer patients who achieved less than a pathological complete response (<pCR) after primary chemotherapy

PURPOSE

Pathological complete response (pCR) to primary chemotherapy is the main determinant for improved disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). The primary endpoints of our study were the long-term DFS and OS rates in homogeneously treated stage IIIB breast cancer patients who failed to achieve a pCR (<pCR), in relation to residual tumor burden. The secondary endpoint was the prognostic relevance of hormone receptor (HR) and human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER)-2 status.

METHODS

We analyzed 58 of 74 consecutive stage IIIB patients treated between 1996 and 2001 who achieved <pCR following a primary cisplatin, epirubicin, and vinorelbine regimen for up to six cycles. At the time of patient accrual, trastuzumab was not available. After definitive surgery, pathological residual disease remained in 40 (69%) patients in both the breast and axilla, in 14 (24%) patients in only the breast, and in four (7%) patients in only the axilla.

RESULTS

Fifty-eight (78%) of 74 patients achieved <pCR and 16 (22%) had pCR both in the breast and axilla. After a median follow-up of 99 months (range, 72-134 months), in patients with <pCR the estimated 10-year DFS and OS rates were 37.6% and 50.3%, respectively, significantly worse than in the pCR group (p = .003 and p = .008, respectively). Patients with four or more axillary nodes involved had a significantly worse 10-year DFS rate (28.9% versus 62.7%; p = .036). Patients with HR(-) tumors had significantly lower 10-year DFS (17.3% versus 46.4%; p = .018) and OS (17.3% versus 70.2%; p = .002) rates. Overall, the triple-negative (TN) group showed only a marginally significantly worse OS rate (p = .048). HER-2 status alone, in the absence of trastuzumab, did not appear to significantly affect outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that, in stage IIIB patients who achieve <pCR, the number of residual nodes and HR(-) status are strong predictors of poor outcomes. After a long follow-up time, HER-2 expression does not appear to significantly affect DFS and OS. TN patients showed a trend toward early recurrence and death.