Advancing admixture graph estimation via maximum likelihood network orientation

A likelihood-based framework for demographic inference from genealogical trees

The demographic history of a population underlies patterns of genetic variation and is encoded in the gene-genealogical trees of the sampled haplotypes. Here we propose a demographic inference framework called the genealogical likelihood (gLike). Our method uses a graph-based structure to summarize the relationships among all lineages in a gene-genealogical tree with all possible trajectories of population memberships through time and derives the full likelihood across trees under a parameterized demographic model. We show through simulations and empirical applications that for populations that have experienced multiple admixtures, gLike can accurately estimate dozens of demographic parameters, including ancestral population sizes, admixture timing and admixture proportions, and it outperforms conventional demographic inference methods using the site frequency spectrum. Taken together, our proposed gLike framework harnesses underused genealogical information to offer high sensitivity and accuracy in inferring complex demographies for humans and other species.

Leveraging graphical model techniques to study evolution on phylogenetic networks

The evolution of molecular and phenotypic traits is commonly modelled using Markov processes along a phylogeny. This phylogeny can be a tree, or a network if it includes reticulations, representing events such as hybridization or admixture. Computing the likelihood of data observed at the leaves is costly as the size and complexity of the phylogeny grows. Efficient algorithms exist for trees, but cannot be applied to networks. We show that a vast array of models for trait evolution along phylogenetic networks can be reformulated as graphical models, for which efficient belief propagation algorithms exist. We provide a brief review of belief propagation on general graphical models, then focus on linear Gaussian models for continuous traits. We show how belief propagation techniques can be applied for exact or approximate (but more scalable) likelihood and gradient calculations, and prove novel results for efficient parameter inference of some models. We highlight the possible fruitful interactions between graphical models and phylogenetic methods. For example, approximate likelihood approaches have the potential to greatly reduce computational costs for phylogenies with reticulations.This article is part of the theme issue '"A mathematical theory of evolution": phylogenetic models dating back 100 years'.

Assessment of breeding nuclei contributions to the genetic diversity and population structure of the Cyprus Chios sheep

Cyprus, facing climate change and desertification, has Europe's second highest population growth. Halloumi cheese's Protected Designation of Origin status boosted goat and sheep milk demand. Optimizing primary sector production is key to balancing food production and environmental sustainability. The present study aims to explore the genetic diversity and population structure of Cyprus Chios sheep, as well as the impact of existing breeding nuclei on the breed's gene pool. Two breeding nuclei aiming to preserve genetic diversity and boost local milk production and four private farms were sampled. Genome-wide data using Illumina 50 K arrays were generated, analyzing over 1000 animals from six farms. At least three distinct genetic groups were identified, two of which are represented by the nuclei's distinct genetic profiles and a third was found in private farms. Calculated metrics indicate a negative correlation of gene flow with geographic distance in case of the Eastern nucleus. Presented results support recent, though limited inbreeding (mean FROH=0.046), compared to other commercial breeds. Estimated effective population size reveals a stabilizing trend to a relatively high number (Ne ~ 200) which indicates relatively high diversity that allows further genetic improvement. Revealed genomic diversity highlights the necessity of such exploration before effectively implementing genomic evaluation programs.

Ancient Sheep Genomes Reveal Four Millennia of North European Short-Tailed Sheep in the Baltic Sea Region

Sheep are among the earliest domesticated livestock species, with a wide variety of breeds present today. However, it remains unclear how far back this diversity goes, with formal documentation only dating back a few centuries. North European short-tailed (NEST) breeds are often assumed to be among the oldest domestic sheep populations, even thought to represent relicts of the earliest sheep expansions during the Neolithic period reaching Scandinavia <6,000 years ago. This study sequenced the genomes (up to 11.6X) of five sheep remains from the Baltic islands of Gotland and Åland, dating from the Late Neolithic (∼4,100 cal BP) to historical times (∼1,600 CE). Our findings indicate that these ancient sheep largely possessed the genetic characteristics of modern NEST breeds, suggesting a substantial degree of long-term continuity of this sheep type in the Baltic Sea region. Despite the wide temporal spread, population genetic analyses show high levels of affinity between the ancient genomes and they also exhibit relatively high genetic diversity when compared to modern NEST breeds, implying a loss of diversity in most breeds during the last centuries associated with breed formation and recent bottlenecks. Our results shed light on the development of breeds in Northern Europe specifically as well as the development of genetic diversity in sheep breeds, and their expansion from the domestication center in general.

Spinach genomes reveal migration history and candidate genes for important crop traits

Spinach (Spinacia oleracea) is an important leafy crop possessing notable economic value and health benefits. Current genomic resources include reference genomes and genome-wide association studies. However, the worldwide genetic relationships and the migration history of the crop remained uncertain, and genome-wide association studies have produced extensive gene lists related to agronomic traits. Here, we re-analysed the sequenced genomes of 305 cultivated and wild spinach accessions to unveil the phylogeny and history of cultivated spinach and to explore genetic variation in relation to phenotypes. In contrast to previous studies, we employed machine learning methods (based on Extreme Gradient Boosting, XGBoost) to detect variants that are collectively associated with agronomic traits. Variant-based cluster analyses revealed three primary spinach groups in the Middle East, Asia and Europe/US. Combining admixture analysis and allele-sharing statistics, migration routes of spinach from the Middle East to Europe and Asia are presented. Using XGBoost machine learning models we predict genomic variants influencing bolting time, flowering time, petiole color, and leaf surface texture and propose candidate genes for each trait. This study enhances our understanding of the history and phylogeny of domesticated spinach and provides valuable information on candidate genes for future genetic improvement of the crop.

The genome and population genomics of allopolyploid Coffea arabica reveal the diversification history of modern coffee cultivars

Coffea arabica, an allotetraploid hybrid of Coffea eugenioides and Coffea canephora, is the source of approximately 60% of coffee products worldwide, and its cultivated accessions have undergone several population bottlenecks. We present chromosome-level assemblies of a di-haploid C. arabica accession and modern representatives of its diploid progenitors, C. eugenioides and C. canephora. The three species exhibit largely conserved genome structures between diploid parents and descendant subgenomes, with no obvious global subgenome dominance. We find evidence for a founding polyploidy event 350,000-610,000 years ago, followed by several pre-domestication bottlenecks, resulting in narrow genetic variation. A split between wild accessions and cultivar progenitors occurred ~30.5 thousand years ago, followed by a period of migration between the two populations. Analysis of modern varieties, including lines historically introgressed with C. canephora, highlights their breeding histories and loci that may contribute to pathogen resistance, laying the groundwork for future genomics-based breeding of C. arabica.

The demographic history and adaptation of Canarian goat breeds to environmental conditions through the use of genome-wide SNP data

BACKGROUND

The presence of goats in the Canary Islands dates back to the late 1st millennium BC, which coincides with the colonization by the Amazigh settlers. However, the exact geographic origin of Canarian goats is uncertain since the Amazigh peoples were distributed over a wide spatial range. Nowadays, three Canarian breeds (Palmera, Majorera and Tinerfeña) are officially recognized, along with two distinct South and North Tinerfeña ecotypes, with the South Tinerfeña and Majorera goats thriving in arid and dry semi-desertic environments and the Palmera and North Tinerfeña goats are adapted to humid and temperate areas that are influenced by trade winds. Genotypes for 224 Canarian goats were generated using the Illumina Goat single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)50 BeadChip. By merging these data with the genotypes from 1007 individuals of African and Southern European ancestry, our aim was to ascertain the geographic origin of the Canarian goats and identify genes associated with adaptation to diverse environmental conditions.

RESULTS

The diversity indices of the Canarian breeds align with most of those of the analyzed local breeds from Africa and Europe, except for the Palmera goats that showed lower levels of genetic variation. The Canarian breeds demonstrate a significant genetic differentiation compared to other populations, which indicates a history of prolonged geographic isolation. Moreover, the phylogenetic reconstruction indicated that the ancestry of the Canarian goats is fundamentally North African rather than West African. The ADMIXTURE and the TreeMix analyses showed no evidence of gene flow between Canarian goats and other continental breeds. The analysis of runs of homozygosity (ROH) identified 13 ROH islands while the window-based FST method detected 25 genomic regions under selection. Major signals of selection were found on Capra hircus (CHI) chromosomes 6, 7, and 10 using various comparisons and methods.

CONCLUSIONS

This genome-wide analysis sheds new light on the evolutionary history of the four breeds that inhabit the Canary Islands. Our findings suggest a North African origin of the Canarian goats. In addition, within the genomic regions highlighted by the ROH and FST approaches, several genes related to body size and heat tolerance were identified.

Demographic reconstruction of the Western sheep expansion from whole-genome sequences

As one of the earliest livestock, sheep (Ovis aries) were domesticated in the Fertile Crescent about 12,000-10,000 years ago and have a nearly worldwide distribution today. Most of our knowledge about the timing of their expansions stems from archaeological data but it is unclear how the genetic diversity of modern sheep fits with these dates. We used whole-genome sequencing data of 63 domestic breeds and their wild relatives, the Asiatic mouflon (O. gmelini, previously known as O. orientalis), to explore the demographic history of sheep. On the global scale, our analysis revealed geographic structuring among breeds with unidirectional recent gene flow from domestics into Asiatic mouflons. We then selected 4 representative breeds from Spain, Morocco, the United Kingdom, and Iran to build a comprehensive demographic model of the Western sheep expansion. We inferred a single domestication event around 11,000 years ago. The subsequent westward expansion is dated to approximately 7,000 years ago, later than the original Neolithic expansion of sheep and slightly predating the Secondary Product Revolution associated with wooly sheep. We see some signals of recent gene flow from an ancestral population into Southern European breeds which could reflect admixture with feral European mouflon. Furthermore, our results indicate that many breeds experienced a reduction of their effective population size during the last centuries, probably associated with modern breed development. Our study provides insights into the complex demographic history of Western Eurasian sheep, highlighting interactions between breeds and their wild counterparts.

Genomic analysis reveals limited hybridization among three giraffe species in Kenya

BACKGROUND

In the speciation continuum, the strength of reproductive isolation varies, and species boundaries are blurred by gene flow. Interbreeding among giraffe (Giraffa spp.) in captivity is known, and anecdotal reports of natural hybrids exist. In Kenya, Nubian (G. camelopardalis camelopardalis), reticulated (G. reticulata), and Masai giraffe sensu stricto (G. tippelskirchi tippelskirchi) are parapatric, and thus, the country might be a melting pot for these taxa. We analyzed 128 genomes of wild giraffe, 113 newly sequenced, representing these three taxa.

RESULTS

We found varying levels of Nubian ancestry in 13 reticulated giraffe sampled across the Laikipia Plateau most likely reflecting historical gene flow between these two lineages. Although comparatively weaker signs of ancestral gene flow and potential mitochondrial introgression from reticulated into Masai giraffe were also detected, estimated admixture levels between these two lineages are minimal. Importantly, contemporary gene flow between East African giraffe lineages was not statistically significant. Effective population sizes have declined since the Late Pleistocene, more severely for Nubian and reticulated giraffe.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite historically hybridizing, these three giraffe lineages have maintained their overall genomic integrity suggesting effective reproductive isolation, consistent with the previous classification of giraffe into four species.

Modeling of African population history using f-statistics is biased when applying all previously proposed SNP ascertainment schemes

f-statistics have emerged as a first line of analysis for making inferences about demographic history from genome-wide data. Not only are they guaranteed to allow robust tests of the fits of proposed models of population history to data when analyzing full genome sequencing data-that is, all single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the individuals being analyzed-but they are also guaranteed to allow robust tests of models for SNPs ascertained as polymorphic in a population that is an outgroup in a phylogenetic sense to all groups being analyzed. True "outgroup ascertainment" is in practice impossible in humans because our species has arisen from a substructured ancestral population that does not descend from a homogeneous ancestral population going back many hundreds of thousands of years into the past. However, initial studies suggested that non-outgroup-ascertainment schemes might produce robust enough results using f-statistics, and that motivated widespread fitting of models to data using non-outgroup-ascertained SNP panels such as the "Affymetrix Human Origins array" which has been genotyped on thousands of modern individuals from hundreds of populations, or the "1240k" in-solution enrichment reagent which has been the source of about 70% of published genome-wide data for ancient humans. In this study, we show that while analyses of population history using such panels work well for studies of relationships among non-African populations and one African outgroup, when co-modeling more than one sub-Saharan African and/or archaic human groups (Neanderthals and Denisovans), fitting of f-statistics to such SNP sets is expected to frequently lead to false rejection of true demographic histories, and failure to reject incorrect models. Analyzing panels of SNPs polymorphic in archaic humans, which has been suggested as a solution for the ascertainment problem, has limited statistical power and retains important biases. However, by carrying out simulations of diverse demographic histories, we show that bias in inferences based on f-statistics can be minimized by ascertaining on variants common in a union of diverse African groups; such ascertainment retains high statistical power while allowing co-analysis of archaic and modern groups.

A fast and scalable method for inferring phylogenetic networks from trees by aligning lineage taxon strings

The reconstruction of phylogenetic networks is an important but challenging problem in phylogenetics and genome evolution, as the space of phylogenetic networks is vast and cannot be sampled well. One approach to the problem is to solve the minimum phylogenetic network problem, in which phylogenetic trees are first inferred, and then the smallest phylogenetic network that displays all the trees is computed. The approach takes advantage of the fact that the theory of phylogenetic trees is mature, and there are excellent tools available for inferring phylogenetic trees from a large number of biomolecular sequences. A tree-child network is a phylogenetic network satisfying the condition that every nonleaf node has at least one child that is of indegree one. Here, we develop a new method that infers the minimum tree-child network by aligning lineage taxon strings in the phylogenetic trees. This algorithmic innovation enables us to get around the limitations of the existing programs for phylogenetic network inference. Our new program, named ALTS, is fast enough to infer a tree-child network with a large number of reticulations for a set of up to 50 phylogenetic trees with 50 taxa that have only trivial common clusters in about a quarter of an hour on average.

The multifaceted genomic history of Ashaninka from Amazonian Peru

Despite its crucial location, the western side of Amazonia between the Andes and the source(s) of the Amazon River is still understudied from a genomic and archaeogenomic point of view, albeit possibly harboring essential information to clarify the complex genetic history of local Indigenous groups and their interactions with nearby regions,^{1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8} including central America and the Caribbean.^9,10,11,12 Focusing on this key region, we analyzed the genome-wide profiles of 51 Ashaninka individuals from Amazonian Peru, observing an unexpected extent of genomic variation. We identified at least two Ashaninka subgroups with distinctive genomic makeups, which were differentially shaped by the degree and timing of external admixtures, especially with the Indigenous groups from the Andes and the Pacific coast. On a continental scale, Ashaninka ancestors probably derived from a south-north migration of Indigenous groups moving into the Amazonian rainforest from a southeastern area with contributions from the Southern Cone and the Atlantic coast. These ancestral populations diversified in the variegated geographic regions of interior South America, on the eastern side of the Andes, differentially interacting with surrounding coastal groups. In this complex scenario, we also revealed strict connections between the ancestors of present-day Ashaninka, who belong to the Arawakan language family,¹³ and those Indigenous groups that moved further north into the Caribbean, contributing to the early Ceramic (Saladoid) tradition in the islands.^14,15.

Bayesian inference of admixture graphs on Native American and Arctic populations

Admixture graphs are mathematical structures that describe the ancestry of populations in terms of divergence and merging (admixing) of ancestral populations as a graph. An admixture graph consists of a graph topology, branch lengths, and admixture proportions. The branch lengths and admixture proportions can be estimated using numerous numerical optimization methods, but inferring the topology involves a combinatorial search for which no polynomial algorithm is known. In this paper, we present a reversible jump MCMC algorithm for sampling high-probability admixture graphs and show that this approach works well both as a heuristic search for a single best-fitting graph and for summarizing shared features extracted from posterior samples of graphs. We apply the method to 11 Native American and Siberian populations and exploit the shared structure of high-probability graphs to characterize the relationship between Saqqaq, Inuit, Koryaks, and Athabascans. Our analyses show that the Saqqaq is not a good proxy for the previously identified gene flow from Arctic people into the Na-Dene speaking Athabascans.

A novel lineage of the Capra genus discovered in the Taurus Mountains of Turkey using ancient genomics

Direkli Cave, located in the Taurus Mountains of southern Turkey, was occupied by Late Epipaleolithic hunters-gatherers for the seasonal hunting and processing of game including large numbers of wild goats. We report genomic data from new and published Capra specimens from Direkli Cave and, supplemented with historic genomes from multiple Capra species, find a novel lineage best represented by a ~14,000 year old 2.59 X genome sequenced from specimen Direkli4. This newly discovered Capra lineage is a sister clade to the Caucasian tur species (Capra cylindricornis and Capra caucasica), both now limited to the Caucasus region. We identify genomic regions introgressed in domestic goats with high affinity to Direkli4, and find that West Eurasian domestic goats in the past, but not those today, appear enriched for Direkli4-specific alleles at a genome-wide level. This forgotten 'Taurasian tur' likely survived Late Pleistocene climatic change in a Taurus Mountain refuge and its genomic fate is unknown.

Genetics and Material Culture Support Repeated Expansions into Paleolithic Eurasia from a Population Hub Out of Africa

The population dynamics that followed the Out of Africa (OoA) expansion and the whereabouts of the early migrants before the differentiation that ultimately led to the formation of Oceanian, West and East Eurasian macropopulations have long been debated. Shedding light on these events may, in turn, provide clues to better understand the cultural evolution in Eurasia between 50 and 35 ka. Here, we analyze Eurasian Paleolithic DNA evidence to provide a comprehensive population model and validate it in light of available material culture. Leveraging on our integrated approach we propose the existence of a Eurasian population Hub, where Homo sapiens lived between the OoA and the broader colonization of Eurasia, which was characterized by multiple events of expansion and local extinction. A major population wave out of Hub, of which Ust'Ishim, Bacho Kiro, and Tianyuan are unadmixed representatives, is broadly associated with Initial Upper Paleolithic lithics and populated West and East Eurasia before or around 45 ka, before getting largely extinct in Europe. In this light, we suggest a parsimonious placement of Oase1 as an individual related to Bacho Kiro who experienced additional Neanderthal introgression. Another expansion, started before 38 ka, is broadly associated with Upper Paleolithic industries and repopulated Europe with sporadic admixtures with the previous wave (GoyetQ116-1) and more systematic ones, whereas moving through Siberia (Yana, Mal'ta). Before these events, we also confirm Zlatý Kůň as the most basal human lineage sequenced to date OoA, potentially representing an earlier wave of expansion out of the Hub.

The origins and spread of domestic horses from the Western Eurasian steppes

Domestication of horses fundamentally transformed long-range mobility and warfare¹. However, modern domesticated breeds do not descend from the earliest domestic horse lineage associated with archaeological evidence of bridling, milking and corralling^2-4 at Botai, Central Asia around 3500 BC³. Other longstanding candidate regions for horse domestication, such as Iberia⁵ and Anatolia⁶, have also recently been challenged. Thus, the genetic, geographic and temporal origins of modern domestic horses have remained unknown. Here we pinpoint the Western Eurasian steppes, especially the lower Volga-Don region, as the homeland of modern domestic horses. Furthermore, we map the population changes accompanying domestication from 273 ancient horse genomes. This reveals that modern domestic horses ultimately replaced almost all other local populations as they expanded rapidly across Eurasia from about 2000 BC, synchronously with equestrian material culture, including Sintashta spoke-wheeled chariots. We find that equestrianism involved strong selection for critical locomotor and behavioural adaptations at the GSDMC and ZFPM1 genes. Our results reject the commonly held association⁷ between horseback riding and the massive expansion of Yamnaya steppe pastoralists into Europe around 3000 BC^8,9 driving the spread of Indo-European languages¹⁰. This contrasts with the scenario in Asia where Indo-Iranian languages, chariots and horses spread together, following the early second millennium BC Sintashta culture^11,12.