Fast stochastic algorithm for simulating evolutionary population dynamics

Using mixture density networks to emulate a stochastic within-host model of Francisella tularensis infection

For stochastic models with large numbers of states, analytical techniques are often impractical, and simulations time-consuming and computationally demanding. This limitation can hinder the practical implementation of such models. In this study, we demonstrate how neural networks can be used to develop emulators for two outputs of a stochastic within-host model of Francisella tularensis infection: the dose-dependent probability of illness and the incubation period. Once the emulators are constructed, we employ Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling methods to parameterize the within-host model using records of human infection. This inference is only possible through the use of a mixture density network to emulate the incubation period, providing accurate approximations of the corresponding probability distribution. Notably, these estimates improve upon previous approaches that relied on bacterial counts from the lungs of macaques. Our findings reveal a 50% infectious dose of approximately 10 colony-forming units and we estimate that the incubation period can last for up to 11 days following low dose exposure.

Implications of Noise on Neural Correlates of Consciousness: A Computational Analysis of Stochastic Systems of Mutually Connected Processes

Random fluctuations in neuronal processes may contribute to variability in perception and increase the information capacity of neuronal networks. Various sources of random processes have been characterized in the nervous system on different levels. However, in the context of neural correlates of consciousness, the robustness of mechanisms of conscious perception against inherent noise in neural dynamical systems is poorly understood. In this paper, a stochastic model is developed to study the implications of noise on dynamical systems that mimic neural correlates of consciousness. We computed power spectral densities and spectral entropy values for dynamical systems that contain a number of mutually connected processes. Interestingly, we found that spectral entropy decreases linearly as the number of processes within the system doubles. Further, power spectral density frequencies shift to higher values as system size increases, revealing an increasing impact of negative feedback loops and regulations on the dynamics of larger systems. Overall, our stochastic modeling and analysis results reveal that large dynamical systems of mutually connected and negatively regulated processes are more robust against inherent noise than small systems.

Acquired resistance to combined BET and CDK4/6 inhibition in triple-negative breast cancer

BET inhibitors are promising therapeutic agents for the treatment of triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), but the rapid emergence of resistance necessitates investigation of combination therapies and their effects on tumor evolution. Here, we show that palbociclib, a CDK4/6 inhibitor, and paclitaxel, a microtubule inhibitor, synergize with the BET inhibitor JQ1 in TNBC lines. High-complexity DNA barcoding and mathematical modeling indicate a high rate of de novo acquired resistance to these drugs relative to pre-existing resistance. We demonstrate that the combination of JQ1 and palbociclib induces cell division errors, which can increase the chance of developing aneuploidy. Characterizing acquired resistance to combination treatment at a single cell level shows heterogeneous mechanisms including activation of G1-S and senescence pathways. Our results establish a rationale for further investigation of combined BET and CDK4/6 inhibition in TNBC and suggest novel mechanisms of action for these drugs and new vulnerabilities in cells after emergence of resistance.

Modeling cell population dynamics

 Quantitative modeling is quickly becoming an integral part of biology, due to the ability of mathematical models and computer simulations to generate insights and predict the behavior of living systems. Single-cell models can be incapable or misleading for inferring population dynamics, as they do not consider the interactions between cells via metabolites or physical contact, nor do they consider competition for limited resources such as nutrients or space. Here we examine methods that are commonly used to model and simulate cell populations. First, we cover simple models where analytic solutions are available, and then move on to more complex scenarios where computational methods are required. Overall, we present a summary of mathematical models used to describe cell population dynamics, which may aid future model development and highlights the importance of population modeling in biology.

Modeling cell population dynamics

 Quantitative modeling is quickly becoming an integral part of biology, due to the ability of mathematical models and computer simulations to generate insights and predict the behavior of living systems. Single-cell models can be incapable or misleading for inferring population dynamics, as they do not consider the interactions between cells via metabolites or physical contact, nor do they consider competition for limited resources such as nutrients or space. Here we examine methods that are commonly used to model and simulate cell populations. First, we cover simple models where analytic solutions are available, and then move on to more complex scenarios where computational methods are required. Overall, we present a summary of mathematical models used to describe cell population dynamics, which may aid future model development and highlights the importance of population modeling in biology.

OncoSimulR: genetic simulation with arbitrary epistasis and mutator genes in asexual populations

Summary

OncoSimulR implements forward-time genetic simulations of biallelic loci in asexual populations with special focus on cancer progression. Fitness can be defined as an arbitrary function of genetic interactions between multiple genes or modules of genes, including epistasis, restrictions in the order of accumulation of mutations, and order effects. Mutation rates can differ among genes, and can be affected by (anti)mutator genes. Also available are sampling from simulations (including single-cell sampling), plotting the genealogical relationships of clones and generating and plotting fitness landscapes.

Availability and Implementation

Implemented in R and C ++, freely available from BioConductor for Linux, Mac and Windows under the GNU GPL license. Version 2.5.9 or higher available from: http://www.bioconductor.org/packages/devel/bioc/html/OncoSimulR.html. GitHub repository at: https://github.com/rdiaz02/OncoSimul

Supplementary information

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Suppression of Beneficial Mutations in Dynamic Microbial Populations

Quantitative predictions for the spread of mutations in bacterial populations are essential to interpret evolution experiments and to improve the stability of synthetic gene circuits. We derive analytical expressions for the suppression factor for beneficial mutations in populations that undergo periodic dilutions, covering arbitrary population sizes, dilution factors, and growth advantages in a single stochastic model. We find that the suppression factor grows with the dilution factor and depends nontrivially on the growth advantage, resulting in the preferential elimination of mutations with certain growth advantages. We confirm our results by extensive numerical simulations.

Identifying restrictions in the order of accumulation of mutations during tumor progression: effects of passengers, evolutionary models, and sampling

BACKGROUND

Cancer progression is caused by the sequential accumulation of mutations, but not all orders of accumulation are equally likely. When the fixation of some mutations depends on the presence of previous ones, identifying restrictions in the order of accumulation of mutations can lead to the discovery of therapeutic targets and diagnostic markers. The purpose of this study is to conduct a comprehensive comparison of the performance of all available methods to identify these restrictions from cross-sectional data. I used simulated data sets (where the true restrictions are known) but, in contrast to previous work, I embedded restrictions within evolutionary models of tumor progression that included passengers (mutations not responsible for the development of cancer, known to be very common). This allowed me to assess, for the first time, the effects of having to filter out passengers, of sampling schemes (when, how, and how many samples), and of deviations from order restrictions.

RESULTS

Poor choices of method, filtering, and sampling lead to large errors in all performance measures. Having to filter passengers lead to decreased performance, especially because true restrictions were missed. Overall, the best method for identifying order restrictions were Oncogenetic Trees, a fast and easy to use method that, although unable to recover dependencies of mutations on more than one mutation, showed good performance in most scenarios, superior to Conjunctive Bayesian Networks and Progression Networks. Single cell sampling provided no advantage, but sampling in the final stages of the disease vs. sampling at different stages had severe effects. Evolutionary model and deviations from order restrictions had major, and sometimes counterintuitive, interactions with other factors that affected performance.

CONCLUSIONS

This paper provides practical recommendations for using these methods with experimental data. It also identifies key areas of future methodological work and, in particular, it shows that it is both possible and necessary to embed assumptions about order restrictions and the nature of driver status within evolutionary models of cancer progression to evaluate the performance of inferential approaches.

A queueing approach to multi-site enzyme kinetics

Multi-site enzymes, defined as where multiple substrate molecules can bind simultaneously to the same enzyme molecule, play a key role in a number of biological networks, with the Escherichia coli protease ClpXP a well-studied example. These enzymes can form a low latency 'waiting line' of substrate to the enzyme's catalytic core, such that the enzyme molecule can continue to collect substrate even when the catalytic core is occupied. To understand multi-site enzyme kinetics, we study a discrete stochastic model that includes a single catalytic core fed by a fixed number of substrate binding sites. A natural queueing systems analogy is found to provide substantial insight into the dynamics of the model. From this, we derive exact results for the probability distribution of the enzyme configuration and for the distribution of substrate departure times in the case of identical but distinguishable classes of substrate molecules. Comments are also provided for the case when different classes of substrate molecules are not processed identically.