FireProt 2.0: web-based platform for the fully automated design of thermostable proteins

Thermostable proteins find their use in numerous biomedical and biotechnological applications. However, the computational design of stable proteins often results in single-point mutations with a limited effect on protein stability. However, the construction of stable multiple-point mutants can prove difficult due to the possibility of antagonistic effects between individual mutations. FireProt protocol enables the automated computational design of highly stable multiple-point mutants. FireProt 2.0 builds on top of the previously published FireProt web, retaining the original functionality and expanding it with several new stabilization strategies. FireProt 2.0 integrates the AlphaFold database and the homology modeling for structure prediction, enabling calculations starting from a sequence. Multiple-point designs are constructed using the Bron-Kerbosch algorithm minimizing the antagonistic effect between the individual mutations. Users can newly limit the FireProt calculation to a set of user-defined mutations, run a saturation mutagenesis of the whole protein or select rigidifying mutations based on B-factors. Evolution-based back-to-consensus strategy is complemented by ancestral sequence reconstruction. FireProt 2.0 is significantly faster and a reworked graphical user interface broadens the tool's availability even to users with older hardware. FireProt 2.0 is freely available at http://loschmidt.chemi.muni.cz/fireprotweb.

Correspondence between functional scores from deep mutational scans and predicted effects on protein stability

Many methodologically diverse computational methods have been applied to the growing challenge of predicting and interpreting the effects of protein variants. As many pathogenic mutations have a perturbing effect on protein stability or intermolecular interactions, one highly interpretable approach is to use protein structural information to model the physical impacts of variants and predict their likely effects on protein stability and interactions. Previous efforts have assessed the accuracy of stability predictors in reproducing thermodynamically accurate values and evaluated their ability to distinguish between known pathogenic and benign mutations. Here, we take an alternate approach, and explore how well stability predictor scores correlate with functional impacts derived from deep mutational scanning (DMS) experiments. In this work, we compare the predictions of 9 protein stability-based tools against mutant protein fitness values from 49 independent DMS datasets, covering 170,940 unique single amino acid variants. We find that FoldX and Rosetta show the strongest correlations with DMS-based functional scores, similar to their previous top performance in distinguishing between pathogenic and benign variants. For both methods, performance is considerably improved when considering intermolecular interactions from protein complex structures, when available. Furthermore, using these two predictors, we derive a "Foldetta" consensus score, which improves upon the performance of both, and manages to match dedicated variant effect predictors in reflecting variant functional impacts. Finally, we also highlight that predicted stability effects show consistently higher correlations with certain DMS experimental phenotypes, particularly those based upon protein abundance, and, in certain cases, can significantly outcompete sequence-based variant effect prediction methodologies for predicting functional scores from DMS experiments.

BayeStab: Predicting effects of mutations on protein stability with uncertainty quantification

Predicting protein thermostability change upon mutation is crucial for understanding diseases and designing therapeutics. However, accurately estimating Gibbs free energy change of the protein remained a challenge. Some methods struggle to generalize on examples with no homology and produce uncalibrated predictions. Here we leverage advances in graph neural networks for protein feature extraction to tackle this structure-property prediction task. Our method, BayeStab, is then tested on four test datasets, including S669, S611, S350, and Myoglobin, showing high generalization and symmetry performance. Meanwhile, we apply concrete dropout enabled Bayesian neural networks to infer plausible models and estimate uncertainty. By decomposing the uncertainty into parts induced by data noise and model, we demonstrate that the probabilistic method allows insights into the inherent noise of the training datasets, which is closely relevant to the upper bound of the task. Finally, the BayeStab web server is created and can be found at: http://www.bayestab.com. The code for this work is available at: https://github.com/HongzhouTang/BayeStab.

Stability and expression of SARS-CoV-2 spike-protein mutations

Protein fold stability likely plays a role in SARS-CoV-2 S-protein evolution, together with ACE2 binding and antibody evasion. While few thermodynamic stability data are available for S-protein mutants, many systematic experimental data exist for their expression. In this paper, we explore whether such expression levels relate to the thermodynamic stability of the mutants. We studied mutation-induced SARS-CoV-2 S-protein fold stability, as computed by three very distinct methods and eight different protein structures to account for method- and structure-dependencies. For all methods and structures used (24 comparisons), computed stability changes correlate significantly (99% confidence level) with experimental yeast expression from the literature, such that higher expression is associated with relatively higher fold stability. Also significant, albeit weaker, correlations were seen between stability and ACE2 binding effects. The effect of thermodynamic fold stability may be direct or a correlate of amino acid or site properties, notably the solvent exposure of the site. Correlation between computed stability and experimental expression and ACE2 binding suggests that functional properties of the SARS-CoV-2 S-protein mutant space are largely determined by a few simple features, due to underlying correlations. Our study lends promise to the development of computational tools that may ideally aid in understanding and predicting SARS-CoV-2 S-protein evolution.

Turning Failures into Applications: The Problem of Protein ΔΔG Prediction

After nearly two decades of research in the field of computational methods based on machine learning and knowledge-based potentials for ΔG and ΔΔG prediction upon variations, we now realize that all the approaches are poorly performing when tested on specific cases and that there is large space for improvement. Why this is so? Is it wrong the underlying assumption that experimental protein thermodynamics in solution reflects the thermodynamics of a single protein? Both machine learning and knowledge-based computational methods are rigorous and we know the solid theory behind. We are now in a critical situation, which suggests that predictions of protein instability upon variation should be considered with care. In the following, we will show how to cope with the problem of understanding which protein positions may be of interest for biotechnological and biomedical purposes. By applying a consensus procedure, we indicate possible strategies for the result interpretation.

DDGun: an untrained predictor of protein stability changes upon amino acid variants

Estimating the functional effect of single amino acid variants in proteins is fundamental for predicting the change in the thermodynamic stability, measured as the difference in the Gibbs free energy of unfolding, between the wild-type and the variant protein (ΔΔG). Here, we present the web-server of the DDGun method, which was previously developed for the ΔΔG prediction upon amino acid variants. DDGun is an untrained method based on basic features derived from evolutionary information. It is antisymmetric, as it predicts opposite ΔΔG values for direct (A → B) and reverse (B → A) single and multiple site variants. DDGun is available in two versions, one based on only sequence information and the other one based on sequence and structure information. Despite being untrained, DDGun reaches prediction performances comparable to those of trained methods. Here we make DDGun available as a web server. For the web server version, we updated the protein sequence database used for the computation of the evolutionary features, and we compiled two new data sets of protein variants to do a blind test of its performances. On these blind data sets of single and multiple site variants, DDGun confirms its prediction performance, reaching an average correlation coefficient between experimental and predicted ΔΔG of 0.45 and 0.49 for the sequence-based and structure-based versions, respectively. Besides being used for the prediction of ΔΔG, we suggest that DDGun should be adopted as a benchmark method to assess the predictive capabilities of newly developed methods. Releasing DDGun as a web-server, stand-alone program and docker image will facilitate the necessary process of method comparison to improve ΔΔG prediction.

Toward Compilation of Balanced Protein Stability Data Sets: Flattening the ΔΔG Curve through Systematic Enrichment

Often studies analyzing stability data sets and/or predictors ignore neutral mutations and use a binary classification scheme labeling only destabilizing and stabilizing mutations. Recognizing that highly concentrated neutral mutations interfere with data set quality, we have explored three protein stability data sets: S2648, PON-tstab, and the symmetric S^sym that differ in size and quality. A characteristic leptokurtic shape in the ΔΔG distributions of all three data sets including the curated and symmetric ones was reported due to concentrated neutral mutations. To further investigate the impact of neutral mutations on ΔΔG predictions, we have comprehensively assessed the performance of 11 predictors on the PON-tstab data set. Correlation and error analyses showed that all of the predictors performed the best on the neutral mutations, while their performance became gradually worse as the ΔΔG of the mutations departed further from the neutral zone regardless of the direction, implying a bias toward dense mutations. To this end, after unraveling the role of concentrated neutral mutations in biases of stability data sets, we described a systematic enrichment approach to balance the ΔΔG distributions. Before enrichment, mutations were clustered based on their biochemical and/or structural features, and then three mutations were selected from every 2 kcal/mol of each cluster. Upon implementation of this approach by distinct clustering schemes, we generated five subsets varying in size and ΔΔG distributions. All subsets showed improved ΔΔG and frequency distributions. We ultimately reported that the errors toward enriched subsets were higher than those toward the parent data sets, confirming the enrichment of difficult-to-predict mutations in the subsets. In summary, we elaborated the prediction bias toward a concentrated neutral zone and also implemented a rational strategy to tackle this and other forms of biases. Ultimately, this study equipping us with an extended view of shortcomings of stability data sets is a step taken toward development of an unbiased predictor.

Data set and fitting dependencies when estimating protein mutant stability: Toward simple, balanced, and interpretable models

Accurate prediction of protein stability changes upon mutation (ΔΔG) is increasingly important to evolution studies, protein engineering, and screening of disease-causing gene variants but is challenged by biases in training data. We investigated 45 linear regression models trained on data sets that account systematically for destabilization bias and mutation-type bias B_M . The models were externally validated on three test data sets probing different pathologies and for internal consistency (symmetry and neutrality). Model structure and performance substantially depended on training data and even fitting method. We developed two final models: SimBa-IB for typical natural mutations and SimBa-SYM for situations where stabilizing and destabilizing mutations occur to a similar extent. SimBa-SYM, despite is simplicity, is essentially non-biased (vs. the S^sym data set) while still performing well for all data sets (R ~ 0.46-0.54, MAE = 1.16-1.24 kcal/mol). The simple models provide advantage in terms of interpretability, use and future improvement, and are freely available on GitHub.

Structure and Mutations of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein: A Focused Overview

The spike protein (S-protein) of SARS-CoV-2, the protein that enables the virus to infect human cells, is the basis for many vaccines and a hotspot of concerning virus evolution. Here, we discuss the outstanding progress in structural characterization of the S-protein and how these structures facilitate analysis of virus function and evolution. We emphasize the differences in reported structures and that analysis of structure-function relationships is sensitive to the structure used. We show that the average residue solvent exposure in nearly complete structures is a good descriptor of open vs closed conformation states. Because of structural heterogeneity of functionally important surface-exposed residues, we recommend using averages of a group of high-quality protein structures rather than a single structure before reaching conclusions on specific structure-function relationships. To illustrate these points, we analyze some significant chemical tendencies of prominent S-protein mutations in the context of the available structures. In the discussion of new variants, we emphasize the selectivity of binding to ACE2 vs prominent antibodies rather than simply the antibody escape or ACE2 affinity separately. We note that larger chemical changes, in particular increased electrostatic charge or side-chain volume of exposed surface residues, are recurring in mutations of concern, plausibly related to adaptation to the negative surface potential of human ACE2. We also find indications that the fixated mutations of the S-protein in the main variants are less destabilizing than would be expected on average, possibly pointing toward a selection pressure on the S-protein. The richness of available structures for all of these situations provides an enormously valuable basis for future research into these structure-function relationships.

Predicting protein stability changes upon single-point mutation: a thorough comparison of the available tools on a new dataset

Predicting the difference in thermodynamic stability between protein variants is crucial for protein design and understanding the genotype-phenotype relationships. So far, several computational tools have been created to address this task. Nevertheless, most of them have been trained or optimized on the same and ‘all’ available data, making a fair comparison unfeasible. Here, we introduce a novel dataset, collected and manually cleaned from the latest version of the ThermoMutDB database, consisting of 669 variants not included in the most widely used training datasets. The prediction performance and the ability to satisfy the antisymmetry property by considering both direct and reverse variants were evaluated across 21 different tools. The Pearson correlations of the tested tools were in the ranges of 0.21–0.5 and 0–0.45 for the direct and reverse variants, respectively. When both direct and reverse variants are considered, the antisymmetric methods perform better achieving a Pearson correlation in the range of 0.51–0.62. The tested methods seem relatively insensitive to the physiological conditions, performing well also on the variants measured with more extreme pH and temperature values. A common issue with all the tested methods is the compression of the \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{upgreek} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} }{}$\Delta \Delta G$\end{document} predictions toward zero. Furthermore, the thermodynamic stability of the most significantly stabilizing variants was found to be more challenging to predict. This study is the most extensive comparisons of prediction methods using an entirely novel set of variants never tested before.

Accurate Prediction of Protein Thermodynamic Stability Changes upon Residue Mutation using Free Energy Perturbation

This work describes the application of a physics-based computational approach to predict the relative thermodynamic stability of protein variants, and evaluates the quantitative accuracy of those predictions compared to experimental data obtained from a diverse set of protein systems assayed at variable pH conditions. Physical stability is a key determinant of the clinical and commercial success of biological therapeutics, vaccines, diagnostics, enzymes and other protein-based products. Although experimental techniques for measuring the impact of amino acid residue mutation on the stability of proteins exist, they tend to be time consuming and costly, hence the need for accurate prediction methods. In contrast to many of the commonly available computational methods for stability prediction, the Free Energy Perturbation approach applied in this paper explicitly accounts for solvent effects and samples conformational dynamics using a rigorous molecular dynamics simulation process. On the entire validation dataset, consisting of 328 single point mutations spread across 14 distinct protein structures, our results show good overall correlation with experiment with an R² of 0.65 and a low mean unsigned error of 0.95 kcal/mol. Application of the FEP approach in conjunction with experimental assessment techniques offers opportunities to lower the time and expense of product development and reduce the risk of costly late-stage failures.

A Deep-Learning Sequence-Based Method to Predict Protein Stability Changes Upon Genetic Variations

Several studies have linked disruptions of protein stability and its normal functions to disease. Therefore, during the last few decades, many tools have been developed to predict the free energy changes upon protein residue variations. Most of these methods require both sequence and structure information to obtain reliable predictions. However, the lower number of protein structures available with respect to their sequences, due to experimental issues, drastically limits the application of these tools. In addition, current methodologies ignore the antisymmetric property characterizing the thermodynamics of the protein stability: a variation from wild-type to a mutated form of the protein structure (XW→XM) and its reverse process (XM→XW) must have opposite values of the free energy difference (ΔΔGWM=−ΔΔGMW). Here we propose ACDC-NN-Seq, a deep neural network system that exploits the sequence information and is able to incorporate into its architecture the antisymmetry property. To our knowledge, this is the first convolutional neural network to predict protein stability changes relying solely on the protein sequence. We show that ACDC-NN-Seq compares favorably with the existing sequence-based methods.

Reviewing Challenges of Predicting Protein Melting Temperature Change Upon Mutation Through the Full Analysis of a Highly Detailed Dataset with High-Resolution Structures

Predicting the effects of mutations on protein stability is a key problem in fundamental and applied biology, still unsolved even for the relatively simple case of small, soluble, globular, monomeric, two-state-folder proteins. Many articles discuss the limitations of prediction methods and of the datasets used to train them, which result in low reliability for actual applications despite globally capturing trends. Here, we review these and other issues by analyzing one of the most detailed, carefully curated datasets of melting temperature change (ΔTm) upon mutation for proteins with high-resolution structures. After examining the composition of this dataset to discuss imbalances and biases, we inspect several of its entries assisted by an online app for data navigation and structure display and aided by a neural network that predicts ΔTm with accuracy close to that of programs available to this end. We pose that the ΔTm predictions of our network, and also likely those of other programs, account only for a baseline-like general effect of each type of amino acid substitution which then requires substantial corrections to reproduce the actual stability changes. The corrections are very different for each specific case and arise from fine structural details which are not well represented in the dataset and which, despite appearing reasonable upon visual inspection of the structures, are hard to encode and parametrize. Based on these observations, additional analyses, and a review of recent literature, we propose recommendations for developers of stability prediction methods and for efforts aimed at improving the datasets used for training. We leave our interactive interface for analysis available online at http://lucianoabriata.altervista.org/papersdata/proteinstability2021/s1626navigation.html so that users can further explore the dataset and baseline predictions, possibly serving as a tool useful in the context of structural biology and protein biotechnology research and as material for education in protein biophysics.

Three Simple Properties Explain Protein Stability Change upon Mutation

Accurate prediction of protein stability upon mutation enables rational engineering of new proteins and insights into protein evolution and monogenetic diseases caused by single-point amino acid substitutions. Many tools have been developed to this aim, ranging from energy-based models to machine-learning methods that use large amounts of experimental data. However, as the methods become more complex, the interpretation of the chemistry underlying the protein stability effects becomes obscure. It is thus of interest to identify the simplest prediction model that retains complete amino acid specific interpretation; for a given number of input descriptors, we expect such a model to be almost universal. In this study, we identify such a limiting model, SimBa, a simple multilinear regression model trained on a substitution-type-balanced experimental data set. The model accounts only for the solvent accessibility of the site, volume difference, and polarity difference caused by mutation. Our results show that this very simple and directly applicable model performs comparably to other much more complex, widely used protein stability prediction methods. This suggests that a hard limit of ∼1 kcal/mol numerical accuracy and an R ∼ 0.5 trend accuracy exists and that new features, such as account of unfolded states, water colocalization, and amino acid correlations, are required to improve accuracy to, e.g., 1/2 kcal/mol.

A base measure of precision for protein stability predictors: structural sensitivity

BACKGROUND

Prediction of the change in fold stability (ΔΔG) of a protein upon mutation is of major importance to protein engineering and screening of disease-causing variants. Many prediction methods can use 3D structural information to predict ΔΔG. While the performance of these methods has been extensively studied, a new problem has arisen due to the abundance of crystal structures: How precise are these methods in terms of structure input used, which structure should be used, and how much does it matter? Thus, there is a need to quantify the structural sensitivity of protein stability prediction methods.

RESULTS

We computed the structural sensitivity of six widely-used prediction methods by use of saturated computational mutagenesis on a diverse set of 87 structures of 25 proteins. Our results show that structural sensitivity varies massively and surprisingly falls into two very distinct groups, with methods that take detailed account of the local environment showing a sensitivity of ~ 0.6 to 0.8 kcal/mol, whereas machine-learning methods display much lower sensitivity (~ 0.1 kcal/mol). We also observe that the precision correlates with the accuracy for mutation-type-balanced data sets but not generally reported accuracy of the methods, indicating the importance of mutation-type balance in both contexts.

CONCLUSIONS

The structural sensitivity of stability prediction methods varies greatly and is caused mainly by the models and less by the actual protein structural differences. As a new recommended standard, we therefore suggest that ΔΔG values are evaluated on three protein structures when available and the associated standard deviation reported, to emphasize not just the accuracy but also the precision of the method in a specific study. Our observation that machine-learning methods deemphasize structure may indicate that folded wild-type structures alone, without the folded mutant and unfolded structures, only add modest value for assessing protein stability effects, and that side-chain-sensitive methods overstate the significance of the folded wild-type structure.

SAAFEC-SEQ: A Sequence-Based Method for Predicting the Effect of Single Point Mutations on Protein Thermodynamic Stability

Modeling the effect of mutations on protein thermodynamics stability is useful for protein engineering and understanding molecular mechanisms of disease-causing variants. Here, we report a new development of the SAAFEC method, the SAAFEC-SEQ, which is a gradient boosting decision tree machine learning method to predict the change of the folding free energy caused by amino acid substitutions. The method does not require the 3D structure of the corresponding protein, but only its sequence and, thus, can be applied on genome-scale investigations where structural information is very sparse. SAAFEC-SEQ uses physicochemical properties, sequence features, and evolutionary information features to make the predictions. It is shown to consistently outperform all existing state-of-the-art sequence-based methods in both the Pearson correlation coefficient and root-mean-squared-error parameters as benchmarked on several independent datasets. The SAAFEC-SEQ has been implemented into a web server and is available as stand-alone code that can be downloaded and embedded into other researchers’ code.

PremPS: Predicting the impact of missense mutations on protein stability

Computational methods that predict protein stability changes induced by missense mutations have made a lot of progress over the past decades. Most of the available methods however have very limited accuracy in predicting stabilizing mutations because existing experimental sets are dominated by mutations reducing protein stability. Moreover, few approaches could consistently perform well across different test cases. To address these issues, we developed a new computational method PremPS to more accurately evaluate the effects of missense mutations on protein stability. The PremPS method is composed of only ten evolutionary- and structure-based features and parameterized on a balanced dataset with an equal number of stabilizing and destabilizing mutations. A comprehensive comparison of the predictive performance of PremPS with other available methods on nine benchmark datasets confirms that our approach consistently outperforms other methods and shows considerable improvement in estimating the impacts of stabilizing mutations. A protein could have multiple structures available, and if another structure of the same protein is used, the predicted change in stability for structure-based methods might be different. Thus, we further estimated the impact of using different structures on prediction accuracy, and demonstrate that our method performs well across different types of structures except for low-resolution structures and models built based on templates with low sequence identity. PremPS can be used for finding functionally important variants, revealing the molecular mechanisms of functional influences and protein design. PremPS is freely available at https://lilab.jysw.suda.edu.cn/research/PremPS/, which allows to do large-scale mutational scanning and takes about four minutes to perform calculations for a single mutation per protein with ~ 300 residues and requires ~ 0.4 seconds for each additional mutation.

Predicting changes in protein thermodynamic stability upon point mutation with deep 3D convolutional neural networks

Predicting mutation-induced changes in protein thermodynamic stability (ΔΔG) is of great interest in protein engineering, variant interpretation, and protein biophysics. We introduce ThermoNet, a deep, 3D-convolutional neural network (3D-CNN) designed for structure-based prediction of ΔΔGs upon point mutation. To leverage the image-processing power inherent in CNNs, we treat protein structures as if they were multi-channel 3D images. In particular, the inputs to ThermoNet are uniformly constructed as multi-channel voxel grids based on biophysical properties derived from raw atom coordinates. We train and evaluate ThermoNet with a curated data set that accounts for protein homology and is balanced with direct and reverse mutations; this provides a framework for addressing biases that have likely influenced many previous ΔΔG prediction methods. ThermoNet demonstrates performance comparable to the best available methods on the widely used Ssym test set. In addition, ThermoNet accurately predicts the effects of both stabilizing and destabilizing mutations, while most other methods exhibit a strong bias towards predicting destabilization. We further show that homology between Ssym and widely used training sets like S2648 and VariBench has likely led to overestimated performance in previous studies. Finally, we demonstrate the practical utility of ThermoNet in predicting the ΔΔGs for two clinically relevant proteins, p53 and myoglobin, and for pathogenic and benign missense variants from ClinVar. Overall, our results suggest that 3D-CNNs can model the complex, non-linear interactions perturbed by mutations, directly from biophysical properties of atoms.

Identification of pathogenic missense mutations using protein stability predictors

Attempts at using protein structures to identify disease-causing mutations have been dominated by the idea that most pathogenic mutations are disruptive at a structural level. Therefore, computational stability predictors, which assess whether a mutation is likely to be stabilising or destabilising to protein structure, have been commonly used when evaluating new candidate disease variants, despite not having been developed specifically for this purpose. We therefore tested 13 different stability predictors for their ability to discriminate between pathogenic and putatively benign missense variants. We find that one method, FoldX, significantly outperforms all other predictors in the identification of disease variants. Moreover, we demonstrate that employing predicted absolute energy change scores improves performance of nearly all predictors in distinguishing pathogenic from benign variants. Importantly, however, we observe that the utility of computational stability predictors is highly heterogeneous across different proteins, and that they are all inferior to the best performing variant effect predictors for identifying pathogenic mutations. We suggest that this is largely due to alternate molecular mechanisms other than protein destabilisation underlying many pathogenic mutations. Thus, better ways of incorporating protein structural information and molecular mechanisms into computational variant effect predictors will be required for improved disease variant prioritisation.

Limitations and challenges in protein stability prediction upon genome variations: towards future applications in precision medicine

Protein stability predictions are becoming essential in medicine to develop novel immunotherapeutic agents and for drug discovery. Despite the large number of computational approaches for predicting the protein stability upon mutation, there are still critical unsolved problems: 1) the limited number of thermodynamic measurements for proteins provided by current databases; 2) the large intrinsic variability of ΔΔG values due to different experimental conditions; 3) biases in the development of predictive methods caused by ignoring the anti-symmetry of ΔΔG values between mutant and native protein forms; 4) over-optimistic prediction performance, due to sequence similarity between proteins used in training and test datasets. Here, we review these issues, highlighting new challenges required to improve current tools and to achieve more reliable predictions. In addition, we provide a perspective of how these methods will be beneficial for designing novel precision medicine approaches for several genetic disorders caused by mutations, such as cancer and neurodegenerative diseases.

Predicting the stability of mutant proteins by computational approaches: an overview

A very large number of computational methods to predict the change in thermodynamic stability of proteins due to mutations have been developed during the last 30 years, and many different web servers are currently available. Nevertheless, most of them suffer from severe drawbacks that decrease their general reliability and, consequently, their applicability to different goals such as protein engineering or the predictions of the effects of mutations in genetic diseases. In this review, we have summarized all the main approaches used to develop these tools, with a survey of the web servers currently available. Moreover, we have also reviewed the different assessments made during the years, in order to allow the reader to check directly the different performances of these tools, to select the one that best fits his/her needs, and to help naïve users in finding the best option for their needs.

MutaBind2: Predicting the Impacts of Single and Multiple Mutations on Protein-Protein Interactions

Missense mutations may affect proteostasis by destabilizing or over-stabilizing protein complexes and changing the pathway flux. Predicting the effects of stabilizing mutations on protein-protein interactions is notoriously difficult because existing experimental sets are skewed toward mutations reducing protein-protein binding affinity and many computational methods fail to correctly evaluate their effects. To address this issue, we developed a method MutaBind2, which estimates the impacts of single as well as multiple mutations on protein-protein interactions. MutaBind2 employs only seven features, and the most important of them describe interactions of proteins with the solvent, evolutionary conservation of the site, and thermodynamic stability of the complex and each monomer. This approach shows a distinct improvement especially in evaluating the effects of mutations increasing binding affinity. MutaBind2 can be used for finding disease driver mutations, designing stable protein complexes, and discovering new protein-protein interaction inhibitors.

On the critical review of five machine learning-based algorithms for predicting protein stability changes upon mutation

A review, recently published in this journal by Fang (2019), showed that methods trained for the prediction of protein stability changes upon mutation have a very critical bias: they neglect that a protein variation (A- > B) and its reverse (B- > A) must have the opposite value of the free energy difference (ΔΔGAB = - ΔΔGBA). In this letter, we complement the Fang's paper presenting a more general view of the problem. In particular, a machine learning-based method, published in 2015 (INPS), addressed the bias issue directly. We include the analysis of the missing method, showing that INPS is nearly insensitive to the addressed problem.

DDGun: an untrained method for the prediction of protein stability changes upon single and multiple point variations

Background

Predicting the effect of single point variations on protein stability constitutes a crucial step toward understanding the relationship between protein structure and function. To this end, several methods have been developed to predict changes in the Gibbs free energy of unfolding (∆∆G) between wild type and variant proteins, using sequence and structure information. Most of the available methods however do not exhibit the anti-symmetric prediction property, which guarantees that the predicted ∆∆G value for a variation is the exact opposite of that predicted for the reverse variation, i.e., ∆∆G(A → B) = −∆∆G(B → A), where A and B are amino acids.

Results

Here we introduce simple anti-symmetric features, based on evolutionary information, which are combined to define an untrained method, DDGun (DDG untrained). DDGun is a simple approach based on evolutionary information that predicts the ∆∆G for single and multiple variations from sequence and structure information (DDGun3D). Our method achieves remarkable performance without any training on the experimental datasets, reaching Pearson correlation coefficients between predicted and measured ∆∆G values of ~ 0.5 and ~ 0.4 for single and multiple site variations, respectively. Surprisingly, DDGun performances are comparable with those of state of the art methods. DDGun also naturally predicts multiple site variations, thereby defining a benchmark method for both single site and multiple site predictors. DDGun is anti-symmetric by construction predicting the value of the ∆∆G of a reciprocal variation as almost equal (depending on the sequence profile) to -∆∆G of the direct variation. This is a valuable property that is missing in the majority of the methods.

Conclusions

Evolutionary information alone combined in an untrained method can achieve remarkably high performances in the prediction of ∆∆G upon protein mutation. Non-trained approaches like DDGun represent a valid benchmark both for scoring the predictive power of the individual features and for assessing the learning capability of supervised methods.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12859-019-2923-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.