Boost in Test-Retest Reliability in Resting State fMRI with Predictive Modeling

Effect of scanning duration and sample size on reliability in resting state fMRI dynamic causal modeling analysis

Despite its widespread use, resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rsfMRI) has been criticized for low test-retest reliability. To improve reliability, researchers have recommended using extended scanning durations, increased sample size, and advanced brain connectivity techniques. However, longer scanning runs and larger sample sizes may come with practical challenges and burdens, especially in rare populations. Here we tested if an advanced brain connectivity technique, dynamic causal modeling (DCM), can improve reliability of fMRI effective connectivity (EC) metrics to acceptable levels without extremely long run durations or extremely large samples. Specifically, we employed DCM for EC analysis on rsfMRI data from the Human Connectome Project. To avoid bias, we assessed four distinct DCMs and gradually increased sample sizes in a randomized manner across ten permutations. We employed pseudo true positive and pseudo false positive rates to assess the efficacy of shorter run durations (3.6, 7.2, 10.8, 14.4 min) in replicating the outcomes of the longest scanning duration (28.8 min) when the sample size was fixed at the largest (n = 160 subjects). Similarly, we assessed the efficacy of smaller sample sizes (n = 10, 20, …, 150 subjects) in replicating the outcomes of the largest sample (n = 160 subjects) when the scanning duration was fixed at the longest (28.8 min). Our results revealed that the pseudo false positive rate was below 0.05 for all the analyses. After the scanning duration reached 10.8 min, which yielded a pseudo true positive rate of 92%, further extensions in run time showed no improvements in pseudo true positive rate. Expanding the sample size led to enhanced pseudo true positive rate outcomes, with a plateau at n = 70 subjects for the targeted top one-half of the largest ECs in the reference sample, regardless of whether the longest run duration (28.8 min) or the viable run duration (10.8 min) was employed. Encouragingly, smaller sample sizes exhibited pseudo true positive rates of approximately 80% for n = 20, and 90% for n = 40 subjects. These data suggest that advanced DCM analysis may be a viable option to attain reliable metrics of EC when larger sample sizes or run times are not feasible.

Brain Functional Connectivity and Anatomical Features as Predictors of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy Outcome for Anxiety in Youths

Background

Because pediatric anxiety disorders precede the onset of many other problems, successful prediction of response to the first-line treatment, cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT), could have major impact. However, existing clinical models are weakly predictive. The current study evaluates whether structural and resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging can predict post-CBT anxiety symptoms.

Methods

Two datasets were studied: (A) one consisted of n=54 subjects with an anxiety diagnosis, who received 12 weeks of CBT, and (B) one consisted of n=15 subjects treated for 8 weeks. Connectome Predictive Modeling (CPM) was used to predict treatment response, as assessed with the PARS; additionally we investigated models using anatomical features, instead of functional connectivity. The main analysis included network edges positively correlated with treatment outcome, and age, sex, and baseline anxiety severity as predictors. Results from alternative models and analyses also are presented. Model assessments utilized 1000 bootstraps, resulting in a 95% CI for R2, r and mean absolute error (MAE).

Outcomes

The main model showed a mean absolute error of approximately 3.5 (95%CI: [3.1-3.8]) points a R2 of 0.08 [-0.14 - 0.26] and r of 0.38 [0.24 - 0.511]. When testing this model in the left-out sample (B) the results were similar, with a MAE of 3.4 [2.8 - 4.7], R2-0.65 [-2.29 - 0.16] and r of 0.4 [0.24 - 0.54]. The anatomical metrics showed a similar pattern, where models rendered overall low R2.

Interpretation

The analysis showed that models based on earlier promising results failed to predict clinical outcomes. Despite the small sample size, the current study does not support extensive use of CPM to predict outcome in pediatric anxiety.

Individual variability in neural representations of mind-wandering

Mind-wandering is a frequent, daily mental activity, experienced in unique ways in each person. Yet neuroimaging evidence relating mind-wandering to brain activity, for example in the default mode network (DMN), has relied on population-rather than individual-based inferences due to limited within-individual sampling. Here, three densely-sampled individuals each reported hundreds of mind-wandering episodes while undergoing multi-session functional magnetic resonance imaging. We found reliable associations between mind-wandering and DMN activation when estimating brain networks within individuals using precision functional mapping. However, the timing of spontaneous DMN activity relative to subjective reports, and the networks beyond DMN that were activated and deactivated during mind-wandering, were distinct across individuals. Connectome-based predictive modeling further revealed idiosyncratic, whole-brain functional connectivity patterns that consistently predicted mind-wandering within individuals but did not fully generalize across individuals. Predictive models of mind-wandering and attention that were derived from larger-scale neuroimaging datasets largely failed when applied to densely-sampled individuals, further highlighting the need for personalized models. Our work offers novel evidence for both conserved and variable neural representations of self-reported mind-wandering in different individuals. The previously-unrecognized inter-individual variations reported here underscore the broader scientific value and potential clinical utility of idiographic approaches to brain-experience associations.

Trait repetitive negative thinking in depression is associated with functional connectivity in negative thinking state rather than resting state

Resting-state functional connectivity (RSFC) has been proposed as a potential indicator of repetitive negative thinking (RNT) in depression. However, identifying the specific functional process associated with RSFC alterations is challenging, and it remains unclear whether alterations in RSFC for depressed individuals are directly related to the RNT process or to individual characteristics distinct from the negative thinking process per se. To investigate the relationship between RSFC alterations and the RNT process in individuals with major depressive disorder (MDD), we compared RSFC with functional connectivity during an induced negative-thinking state (NTFC) in terms of their predictability of RNT traits and associated whole-brain connectivity patterns using connectome-based predictive modeling (CPM) and connectome-wide association (CWA) analyses. Thirty-six MDD participants and twenty-six healthy control participants underwent both resting state and induced negative thinking state fMRI scans. Both RSFC and NTFC distinguished between healthy and depressed individuals with CPM. However, trait RNT in depressed individuals, as measured by the Ruminative Responses Scale-Brooding subscale, was only predictable from NTFC, not from RSFC. CWA analysis revealed that negative thinking in depression was associated with higher functional connectivity between the default mode and executive control regions, which was not observed in RSFC. These findings suggest that RNT in depression involves an active mental process encompassing multiple brain regions across functional networks, which is not represented in the resting state. Although RSFC indicates brain functional alterations in MDD, they may not directly reflect the negative thinking process.

A dorsomedial prefrontal cortex-based dynamic functional connectivity model of rumination

Rumination is a cognitive style characterized by repetitive thoughts about one's negative internal states and is a common symptom of depression. Previous studies have linked trait rumination to alterations in the default mode network, but predictive brain markers of rumination are lacking. Here, we adopt a predictive modeling approach to develop a neuroimaging marker of rumination based on the variance of dynamic resting-state functional connectivity and test it across 5 diverse subclinical and clinical samples (total n = 288). A whole-brain marker based on dynamic connectivity with the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) emerges as generalizable across the subclinical datasets. A refined marker consisting of the most important features from a virtual lesion analysis further predicts depression scores of adults with major depressive disorder (n = 35). This study highlights the role of the dmPFC in trait rumination and provides a dynamic functional connectivity marker for rumination.

Trait repetitive negative thinking in depression is associated with functional connectivity in negative thinking state rather than resting state

Resting-state functional connectivity (RSFC) has been proposed as a potential indicator of repetitive negative thinking (RNT) in depression. However, identifying the specific functional process associated with RSFC alterations is challenging, and it remains unclear whether alterations in RSFC for depressed individuals are directly related to the RNT process or to individual characteristics distinct from the negative thinking process per se. To investigate the relationship between RSFC alterations and the RNT process in individuals with major depressive disorder (MDD), we compared RSFC with functional connectivity during an induced negative-thinking state (NTFC) in terms of their predictability of RNT traits and associated whole-brain connectivity patterns using connectome-based predictive modeling (CPM) and connectome-wide association (CWA) analyses. Thirty-six MDD participants and twenty-six healthy control participants underwent both resting state and induced negative thinking state fMRI scans. Both RSFC and NTFC distinguished between healthy and depressed individuals with CPM. However, trait RNT in depressed individuals, as measured by the Ruminative Responses Scale-Brooding subscale, was only predictable from NTFC, not from RSFC. CWA analysis revealed that negative thinking in depression was associated with higher functional connectivity between the default mode and executive control regions, which was not observed in RSFC. These findings suggest that RNT in depression involves an active mental process encompassing multiple brain regions across functional networks, which is not represented in the resting state. Although RSFC indicates brain functional alterations in MDD, they may not directly reflect the negative thinking process.

Reducing default mode network connectivity with mindfulness-based fMRI neurofeedback: a pilot study among adolescents with affective disorder history

Adolescents experience alarmingly high rates of major depressive disorder (MDD), however, gold-standard treatments are only effective for ~50% of youth. Accordingly, there is a critical need to develop novel interventions, particularly ones that target neural mechanisms believed to potentiate depressive symptoms. Directly addressing this gap, we developed mindfulness-based fMRI neurofeedback (mbNF) for adolescents that aims to reduce default mode network (DMN) hyperconnectivity, which has been implicated in the onset and maintenance of MDD. In this proof-of-concept study, adolescents (n = 9) with a lifetime history of depression and/or anxiety were administered clinical interviews and self-report questionnaires, and each participant's DMN and central executive network (CEN) were personalized using a resting state fMRI localizer. After the localizer scan, adolescents completed a brief mindfulness training followed by a mbNF session in the scanner wherein they were instructed to volitionally reduce DMN relative to CEN activation by practicing mindfulness meditation. Several promising findings emerged. First, mbNF successfully engaged the target brain state during neurofeedback; participants spent more time in the target state with DMN activation lower than CEN activation. Second, in each of the nine adolescents, mbNF led to significantly reduced within-DMN connectivity, which correlated with post-mbNF increases in state mindfulness. Last, a reduction of within-DMN connectivity mediated the association between better mbNF performance and increased state mindfulness. These findings demonstrate that personalized mbNF can effectively and non-invasively modulate the intrinsic networks associated with the emergence and persistence of depressive symptoms during adolescence.

Adolescent functional network connectivity prospectively predicts adult anxiety symptoms related to perceived COVID-19 economic adversity

BACKGROUND

Stressful events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, are major contributors to anxiety and depression, but only a subset of individuals develop psychopathology. In a population-based sample (N = 174) with a high representation of marginalized individuals, this study examined adolescent functional network connectivity as a marker of susceptibility to anxiety and depression in the context of adverse experiences.

METHODS

Data-driven network-based subgroups were identified using an unsupervised community detection algorithm within functional neural connectivity. Neuroimaging data collected during emotion processing (age 15) were extracted from a priori regions of interest linked to anxiety and depression. Symptoms were self-reported at ages 15, 17, and 21 (during COVID-19). During COVID-19, participants reported on pandemic-related economic adversity. Differences across subgroup networks were first examined, then subgroup membership and subgroup-adversity interaction were tested to predict change in symptoms over time.

RESULTS

Two subgroups were identified: Subgroup A, characterized by relatively greater neural network variation (i.e., heterogeneity) and density with more connections involving the amygdala, subgenual cingulate, and ventral striatum; and the more homogenous Subgroup B, with more connections involving the insula and dorsal anterior cingulate. Accounting for initial symptoms, subgroup A individuals had greater increases in symptoms across time (β = .138, p = .042), and this result remained after adjusting for additional covariates (β = .194, p = .023). Furthermore, there was a subgroup-adversity interaction: compared with Subgroup B, Subgroup A reported greater anxiety during the pandemic in response to reported economic adversity (β = .307, p = .006), and this remained after accounting for initial symptoms and many covariates (β = .237, p = .021).

CONCLUSIONS

A subgrouping algorithm identified young adults who were susceptible to adversity using their personalized functional network profiles derived from a priori brain regions. These results highlight potential prospective neural signatures involving heterogeneous emotion networks that predict individuals at the greatest risk for anxiety when experiencing adverse events.

Predicting executive functioning from functional brain connectivity: network specificity and age effects

Healthy aging is associated with altered executive functioning (EF). Earlier studies found age-related differences in EF performance to be partially accounted for by changes in resting-state functional connectivity (RSFC) within brain networks associated with EF. However, it remains unclear which role RSFC in EF-associated networks plays as a marker for individual differences in EF performance. Here, we investigated to what degree individual abilities across 3 different EF tasks can be predicted from RSFC within EF-related, perceptuo-motor, whole-brain, and random networks separately in young and old adults. Specifically, we were interested if (i) young and old adults differ in predictability depending on network or EF demand level (high vs. low), (ii) an EF-related network outperforms EF-unspecific networks when predicting EF abilities, and (iii) this pattern changes with demand level. Both our uni- and multivariate analysis frameworks analyzing interactions between age × demand level × networks revealed overall low prediction accuracies and a general lack of specificity regarding neurobiological networks for predicting EF abilities. This questions the idea of finding markers for individual EF performance in RSFC patterns and calls for future research replicating the current approach in different task states, brain modalities, different, larger samples, and with more comprehensive behavioral measures.

A generalizable connectome-based marker of in-scan sustained attention in neurodiverse youth

Difficulty with attention is an important symptom in many conditions in psychiatry, including neurodiverse conditions such as autism. There is a need to better understand the neurobiological correlates of attention and leverage these findings in healthcare settings. Nevertheless, it remains unclear if it is possible to build dimensional predictive models of attentional state in a sample that includes participants with neurodiverse conditions. Here, we use 5 datasets to identify and validate functional connectome-based markers of attention. In dataset 1, we use connectome-based predictive modeling and observe successful prediction of performance on an in-scan sustained attention task in a sample of youth, including participants with a neurodiverse condition. The predictions are not driven by confounds, such as head motion. In dataset 2, we find that the attention network model defined in dataset 1 generalizes to predict in-scan attention in a separate sample of neurotypical participants performing the same attention task. In datasets 3-5, we use connectome-based identification and longitudinal scans to probe the stability of the attention network across months to years in individual participants. Our results help elucidate the brain correlates of attentional state in youth and support the further development of predictive dimensional models of other clinically relevant phenotypes.

Relationship Between Prediction Accuracy and Feature Importance Reliability: an Empirical and Theoretical Study

There is significant interest in using neuroimaging data to predict behavior. The predictive models are often interpreted by the computation of feature importance, which quantifies the predictive relevance of an imaging feature. Tian and Zalesky (2021) suggest that feature importance estimates exhibit low split-half reliability, as well as a trade-off between prediction accuracy and feature importance reliability across parcellation resolutions. However, it is unclear whether the trade-off between prediction accuracy and feature importance reliability is universal. Here, we demonstrate that, with a sufficient sample size, feature importance (operationalized as Haufe-transformed weights) can achieve fair to excellent split-half reliability. With a sample size of 2600 participants, Haufe-transformed weights achieve average intra-class correlation coefficients of 0.75, 0.57 and 0.53 for cognitive, personality and mental health measures respectively. Haufe-transformed weights are much more reliable than original regression weights and univariate FC-behavior correlations. Original regression weights are not reliable even with 2600 participants. Intriguingly, feature importance reliability is strongly positively correlated with prediction accuracy across phenotypes. Within a particular behavioral domain, there is no clear relationship between prediction performance and feature importance reliability across regression models. Furthermore, we show mathematically that feature importance reliability is necessary, but not sufficient, for low feature importance error. In the case of linear models, lower feature importance error is mathematically related to lower prediction error. Therefore, higher feature importance reliability might yield lower feature importance error and higher prediction accuracy. Finally, we discuss how our theoretical results relate with the reliability of imaging features and behavioral measures. Overall, the current study provides empirical and theoretical insights into the relationship between prediction accuracy and feature importance reliability.

Predicting sex, age, general cognition and mental health with machine learning on brain structural connectomes

There is an increasing expectation that advanced, computationally expensive machine learning (ML) techniques, when applied to large population-wide neuroimaging datasets, will help to uncover key differences in the human brain in health and disease. We take a comprehensive approach to explore how multiple aspects of brain structural connectivity can predict sex, age, general cognitive function and general psychopathology, testing different ML algorithms from deep learning (DL) model (BrainNetCNN) to classical ML methods. We modelled N = 8183 structural connectomes from UK Biobank using six different structural network weightings obtained from diffusion MRI. Streamline count generally provided the highest prediction accuracies in all prediction tasks. DL did not improve on prediction accuracies from simpler linear models. Further, high correlations between gradient attribution coefficients from DL and model coefficients from linear models suggested the models ranked the importance of features in similar ways, which indirectly suggested the similarity in models' strategies for making predictive decision to some extent. This highlights that model complexity is unlikely to improve detection of associations between structural connectomes and complex phenotypes with the current sample size.

Statistical power in network neuroscience

Network neuroscience has emerged as a leading method to study brain connectivity. The success of these investigations is dependent not only on approaches to accurately map connectivity but also on the ability to detect real effects in the data - that is, statistical power. We review the state of statistical power in the field and discuss sample size, effect size, measurement error, and network topology as key factors that influence the power of brain connectivity investigations. We use the term 'differential power' to describe how power can vary between nodes, edges, and graph metrics, leaving traces in both positive and negative connectome findings. We conclude with strategies for working with, rather than around, power in connectivity studies.

Brain networks for temporal adaptation, anticipation, and sensory-motor integration in rhythmic human behavior

Human interaction often requires the precise yet flexible interpersonal coordination of rhythmic behavior, as in group music making. The present fMRI study investigates the functional brain networks that may facilitate such behavior by enabling temporal adaptation (error correction), prediction, and the monitoring and integration of information about 'self' and the external environment. Participants were required to synchronize finger taps with computer-controlled auditory sequences that were presented either at a globally steady tempo with local adaptations to the participants' tap timing (Virtual Partner task) or with gradual tempo accelerations and decelerations but without adaptation (Tempo Change task). Connectome-based predictive modelling was used to examine patterns of brain functional connectivity related to individual differences in behavioral performance and parameter estimates from the adaptation and anticipation model (ADAM) of sensorimotor synchronization for these two tasks under conditions of varying cognitive load. Results revealed distinct but overlapping brain networks associated with ADAM-derived estimates of temporal adaptation, anticipation, and the integration of self-controlled and externally controlled processes across task conditions. The partial overlap between ADAM networks suggests common hub regions that modulate functional connectivity within and between the brain's resting-state networks and additional sensory-motor regions and subcortical structures in a manner reflecting coordination skill. Such network reconfiguration might facilitate sensorimotor synchronization by enabling shifts in focus on internal and external information, and, in social contexts requiring interpersonal coordination, variations in the degree of simultaneous integration and segregation of these information sources in internal models that support self, other, and joint action planning and prediction.

Considering dynamic nature of the brain: the clinical importance of connectivity variability in machine learning classification and prediction

The brain connectivity of resting-state fMRI (rs-fMRI) represents an intrinsic state of brain architecture, and it has been used as a useful neural marker for detecting psychiatric conditions as well as for predicting psychosocial characteristics. However, most studies using brain connectivity have focused more on the strength of functional connectivity over time (static-FC) but less attention to temporal characteristics of connectivity changes (FC-variability). The primary goal of the current study was to investigate the effectiveness of using the FC-variability in classifying an individual's pathological characteristics from others and predicting psychosocial characteristics. In addition, the current study aimed to prove that benefits of the FC-variability are reliable across various analysis procedures. To this end, three open public large resting-state fMRI datasets including individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ABIDE; N = 1249), Schizophrenia disorder (COBRE; N = 145), and typical development (NKI; N = 672) were utilized for the machine learning (ML) classification and prediction based on their static-FC and the FC-variability metrics. To confirm the robustness of FC-variability utility, we benchmarked the ML classification and prediction with various brain parcellations and sliding window parameters. As a result, we found that the ML performances were significantly improved when the ML included FC-variability features in classifying pathological populations from controls (e.g., individuals with autism spectrum disorder vs. typical development) and predicting psychiatric severity (e.g., score of autism diagnostic observation schedule), regardless of parcellation selection and sliding window size. Additionally, the ML performance deterioration was significantly prevented with FC-variability features when excessive features were inputted into the ML models, yielding more reliable results. In conclusion, the current finding proved the usefulness of the FC-variability and its reliability.

Capturing Brain-Cognition Relationship: Integrating Task-Based fMRI Across Tasks Markedly Boosts Prediction and Test-Retest Reliability

Capturing individual differences in cognition is central to human neuroscience. Yet our ability to estimate cognitive abilities via brain MRI is still poor in both prediction and reliability. Our study tested if this inability can be improved by integrating MRI signals across the whole brain and across modalities, including task-based functional MRI (tfMRI) of different tasks along with other non-task MRI modalities, such as structural MRI, resting-state functional connectivity. Using the Human Connectome Project (n=873, 473 females, after quality control), we directly compared predictive models comprising different sets of MRI modalities (e.g., seven tasks vs. non-task modalities). We applied two approaches to integrate multimodal MRI, stacked vs. flat models, and implemented 16 combinations of machine-learning algorithms. The stacked model integrating all modalities via stacking Elastic Net provided the best prediction (r=.57), relatively to other models tested, as well as excellent test-retest reliability (ICC=∼.85) in capturing general cognitive abilities. Importantly, compared to the stacked model integrating across non-task modalities (r=.27), the stacked model integrating tfMRI across tasks led to significantly higher prediction (r=.56) while still providing excellent test-retest reliability (ICC=∼.83). The stacked model integrating tfMRI across tasks was driven by frontal and parietal areas and by tasks that are cognition-related (working-memory, relational processing, and language). This result is consistent with the parieto-frontal integration theory of intelligence. Accordingly, our results contradict the recently popular notion that tfMRI is not reliable enough to capture individual differences in cognition. Instead, our study suggests that tfMRI, when used appropriately (i.e., by drawing information across the whole brain and across tasks and by integrating with other modalities), provides predictive and reliable sources of information for individual differences in cognitive abilities, more so than non-task modalities.

Evidence for lateralized functional connectivity patterns at rest related to the tendency of externalizing or internalizing anger

Previous electroencephalographic and brain stimulation studies have shown that anger responses may be differently lateralized in the prefrontal cortex, with outward-oriented responses (externalized anger) linked to left prefrontal activity, and inward-oriented responses (internalized anger) linked to right prefrontal activity. However, the specific neural structures involved in this asymmetry, and how they interact to produce individual differences, remain unexplored. Furthermore, it is unclear whether such asymmetry may be explained by general behavioral tendencies, known as Behavioral Activation and Behavioral Inhibition Systems (BIS/BAS). Therefore, we analyzed the tendency of externalizing and internalizing anger, respectively measured by the Anger-Out and Anger-In subscales of the State-Trait Anger Expression Inventory, with the patterns of functional connectivity at rest of 71 participants. A left, prefrontal, resting-state, functional connectivity pattern was found for externalizing anger (Anger-Out), including the left inferior frontal gyrus and the left frontal eye fields. By contrast, a right, prefrontal, resting-state, functional connectivity pattern was found for internalizing anger (Anger-In), including the rostral and lateral prefrontal cortex, the orbitofrontal cortex, the frontal pole, the superior, middle and inferior frontal gyri, and the anterior cingulate. Notably, these patterns were not associated with the BIS/BAS scores. In this study, for the first time, we provide evidence using fMRI functional connectivity for two specific lateralized circuits contributing to individual differences in externalizing and internalizing anger. These results confirm and extend the asymmetry hypothesis for anger and have notable implications in the treatment of anger-related problems.

COVID-19 vicarious traumatization links functional connectome to general distress

As characterized by repeated exposure of others' trauma, vicarious traumatization is a common negative psychological reaction during the COVID-19 pandemic and plays a crucial role in the development of general mental distress. This study aims to identify functional connectome that encodes individual variations of pandemic-related vicarious traumatization and reveal the underlying brain-vicarious traumatization mechanism in predicting general distress. The eligible subjects were 105 general university students (60 females, aged from 19 to 27 years) undergoing brain MRI scanning and baseline behavioral tests (October 2019 to January 2020), whom were re-contacted for COVID-related vicarious traumatization measurement (February to April 2020) and follow-up general distress evaluation (March to April 2021). We applied a connectome-based predictive modeling (CPM) approach to identify the functional connectome supporting vicarious traumatization based on a 268-region-parcellation assigned to network memberships. The CPM analyses showed that only the negative network model stably predicted individuals' vicarious traumatization scores (q² = -0.18, MSE = 617, r _{[predicted, actual]} = 0.18, p = 0.024), with the contributing functional connectivity primarily distributed in the fronto-parietal, default mode, medial frontal, salience, and motor network. Furthermore, mediation analysis revealed that vicarious traumatization mediated the influence of brain functional connectome on general distress. Importantly, our results were independent of baseline family socioeconomic status, other stressful life events and general mental health as well as age, sex and head motion. Our study is the first to provide evidence for the functional neural markers of vicarious traumatization and reveal an underlying neuropsychological pathway to predict distress symptoms in which brain functional connectome affects general distress via vicarious traumatization.

The normative modeling framework for computational psychiatry

Normative modeling is an emerging and innovative framework for mapping individual differences at the level of a single subject or observation in relation to a reference model. It involves charting centiles of variation across a population in terms of mappings between biology and behavior, which can then be used to make statistical inferences at the level of the individual. The fields of computational psychiatry and clinical neuroscience have been slow to transition away from patient versus 'healthy' control analytic approaches, probably owing to a lack of tools designed to properly model biological heterogeneity of mental disorders. Normative modeling provides a solution to address this issue and moves analysis away from case-control comparisons that rely on potentially noisy clinical labels. Here we define a standardized protocol to guide users through, from start to finish, normative modeling analysis using the Predictive Clinical Neuroscience toolkit (PCNtoolkit). We describe the input data selection process, provide intuition behind the various modeling choices and conclude by demonstrating several examples of downstream analyses that the normative model may facilitate, such as stratification of high-risk individuals, subtyping and behavioral predictive modeling. The protocol takes ~1-3 h to complete.

Test-retest reliability of fMRI during an emotion processing task: Investigating the impact of analytical approaches on ICC values

Test-retest reliability of fMRI is often assessed using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), a numerical representation of reliability. Reports of low reliability at the individual level may be attributed to analytical approaches and inherent bias/error in the measures used to calculate ICC. It is unclear whether low reliability at the individual level is related to methodological decisions or if fMRI is inherently unreliable. The purpose of this study was to investigate methodological considerations when calculating ICC to improve understanding of fMRI reliability. fMRI data were collected from adolescent females (N=23) at pre- and post-cognitive behavioral therapy. Participants completed an emotion processing task during fMRI. We calculated ICC values using contrasts and β coefficients separately from voxelwise and network (ICA) analyses of the task-based fMRI data. For both voxelwise analysis and ICA, ICC values were higher when calculated using β coefficients. This work provides support for the use of β coefficients over contrasts when assessing reliability of fMRI, and the use of contrasts may underlie low reliability estimates reported in the existing literature. Continued research in this area is warranted to establish fMRI as a reliable measure to draw conclusions and utilize fMRI in clinical settings.

Predicting individual traits from unperformed tasks

Relating individual differences in cognitive traits to brain functional organization is a long-lasting challenge for the neuroscience community. Individual intelligence scores were previously predicted from whole-brain connectivity patterns, extracted from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data acquired at rest. Recently, it was shown that task-induced brain activation maps outperform these resting-state connectivity patterns in predicting individual intelligence, suggesting that a cognitively demanding environment improves prediction of cognitive abilities. Here, we use data from the Human Connectome Project to predict task-induced brain activation maps from resting-state fMRI, and proceed to use these predicted activity maps to further predict individual differences in a variety of traits. While models based on original task activation maps remain the most accurate, models based on predicted maps significantly outperformed those based on the resting-state connectome. Thus, we provide a promising approach for the evaluation of measures of human behavior from brain activation maps, that could be used without having participants actually perform the tasks.

Neuroimaging brain growth charts: A road to mental health

Mental disorders are common health concerns and contribute to a heavy global burden on our modern society. It is challenging to identify and treat them timely. Neuroimaging evidence suggests the incidence of various psychiatric and behavioral disorders is closely related to the atypical development of brain structure and function. The identification and understanding of atypical brain development provide chances for clinicians to detect mental disorders earlier, perhaps even prior to onset, and treat them more precisely. An invaluable and necessary method in identifying and monitoring atypical brain development are growth charts of typically developing individuals in the population. The brain growth charts can offer a series of standard references on typical neurodevelopment, representing an important resource for the scientific and medical communities. In the present paper, we review the relationship between mental disorders and atypical brain development from a perspective of normative brain development by surveying the recent progress in the development of brain growth charts, including four aspects on growth chart utility: 1) cohorts, 2) measures, 3) mechanisms, and 4) clinical translations. In doing so, we seek to clarify the challenges and opportunities in charting brain growth, and to promote the application of brain growth charts in clinical practice.

Brain-wide functional connectivity patterns support general cognitive ability and mediate effects of socioeconomic status in youth

General cognitive ability (GCA) is an individual difference dimension linked to important academic, occupational, and health-related outcomes and its development is strongly linked to differences in socioeconomic status (SES). Complex abilities of the human brain are realized through interconnections among distributed brain regions, but brain-wide connectivity patterns associated with GCA in youth, and the influence of SES on these connectivity patterns, are poorly understood. The present study examined functional connectomes from 5937 9- and 10-year-olds in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) multi-site study. Using multivariate predictive modeling methods, we identified whole-brain functional connectivity patterns linked to GCA. In leave-one-site-out cross-validation, we found these connectivity patterns exhibited strong and statistically reliable generalization at 19 out of 19 held-out sites accounting for 18.0% of the variance in GCA scores (cross-validated partial η²). GCA-related connections were remarkably dispersed across brain networks: across 120 sets of connections linking pairs of large-scale networks, significantly elevated GCA-related connectivity was found in 110 of them, and differences in levels of GCA-related connectivity across brain networks were notably modest. Consistent with prior work, socioeconomic status was a strong predictor of GCA in this sample, and we found that distributed GCA-related brain connectivity patterns significantly statistically mediated this relationship (mean proportion mediated: 15.6%, p < 2 × 10^-16). These results demonstrate that socioeconomic status and GCA are related to broad and diffuse differences in functional connectivity architecture during early adolescence, potentially suggesting a mechanism through which socioeconomic status influences cognitive development.

Machine learning prediction of cognition from functional connectivity: Are feature weights reliable?

Cognitive performance can be predicted from an individual's functional brain connectivity with modest accuracy using machine learning approaches. As yet, however, predictive models have arguably yielded limited insight into the neurobiological processes supporting cognition. To do so, feature selection and feature weight estimation need to be reliable to ensure that important connections and circuits with high predictive utility can be reliably identified. We comprehensively investigate feature weight test-retest reliability for various predictive models of cognitive performance built from resting-state functional connectivity networks in healthy young adults (n=400). Despite achieving modest prediction accuracies (r=0.2-0.4), we find that feature weight reliability is generally poor for all predictive models (ICC< 0.3), and significantly poorer than predictive models for overt biological attributes such as sex (ICC≈0.5). Larger sample sizes (n=800), the Haufe transformation, non-sparse feature selection/regularization and smaller feature spaces marginally improve reliability (ICC< 0.4). We elucidate a tradeoff between feature weight reliability and prediction accuracy and find that univariate statistics are marginally more reliable than feature weights from predictive models. Finally, we show that measuring agreement in feature weights between cross-validation folds provides inflated estimates of feature weight reliability. We thus recommend for reliability to be estimated out-of-sample, if possible. We argue that rebalancing focus from prediction accuracy to model reliability may facilitate mechanistic understanding of cognition with machine learning approaches.

The instability of functional connectomes across the first year of life

The uniqueness and stability of the adolescent and adult functional connectome has been demonstrated to be high (80-95 % identification) using connectome-based identification (ID) or "fingerprinting". However, it is unclear to what extent individuals exhibit similar distinctiveness and stability in infancy, a developmental period of rapid and unparalleled brain development. In this study, we examined connectome-based ID rates within and across the first year of life using a longitudinal infant dataset at 1.5 month and 9 months of age. We also calculated the test-retest reliability of individual connections across the first year of life using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Overall, we found substantially lower infant ID rates than have been reported in adult and adolescent populations. Within-session ID rates were moderate and significant (ID = 48.94-70.83 %). Between-session ID rates were very low and not significant, with task-to-task connectomes resulting in the highest between-session ID rate (ID = 26.6 %). Similarly, average edge-level test-retest reliability was higher within-session than between-session (mean within-session ICC = 0.17, mean between-session ICC = 0.10). These findings suggest a lack of uniqueness and stability in functional connectomes across the first year of life consistent with the unparalleled changes in brain functional organization during this critical period.

What have we really learned from functional connectivity in clinical populations?

Functional connectivity (FC), or the statistical interdependence of blood-oxygen dependent level (BOLD) signals between brain regions using fMRI, has emerged as a widely used tool for probing functional abnormalities in clinical populations due to the promise of the approach across conceptual, technical, and practical levels. With an already vast and steadily accumulating neuroimaging literature on neurodevelopmental, psychiatric, and neurological diseases and disorders in which FC is a primary measure, we aim here to provide a high-level synthesis of major concepts that have arisen from FC findings in a manner that cuts across different clinical conditions and sheds light on overarching principles. We highlight that FC has allowed us to discover the ubiquity of intrinsic functional networks across virtually all brains and clarify typical patterns of neurodevelopment over the lifespan. This understanding of typical FC maturation with age has provided important benchmarks against which to evaluate divergent maturation in early life and degeneration in late life. This in turn has led to the important insight that many clinical conditions are associated with complex, distributed, network-level changes in the brain, as opposed to solely focal abnormalities. We further emphasize the important role that FC studies have played in supporting a dimensional approach to studying transdiagnostic clinical symptoms and in enhancing the multimodal characterization and prediction of the trajectory of symptom progression across conditions. We highlight the unprecedented opportunity offered by FC to probe functional abnormalities in clinical conditions where brain function could not be easily studied otherwise, such as in disorders of consciousness. Lastly, we suggest high priority areas for future research and acknowledge critical barriers associated with the use of FC methods, particularly those related to artifact removal, data denoising and feasibility in clinical contexts.

Beyond fingerprinting: Choosing predictive connectomes over reliable connectomes

Recent years have seen a surge of research on variability in functional brain connectivity within and between individuals, with encouraging progress toward understanding the consequences of this variability for cognition and behavior. At the same time, well-founded concerns over rigor and reproducibility in psychology and neuroscience have led many to question whether functional connectivity is sufficiently reliable, and call for methods to improve its reliability. The thesis of this opinion piece is that when studying variability in functional connectivity-both across individuals and within individuals over time-we should use behavior prediction as our benchmark rather than optimize reliability for its own sake. We discuss theoretical and empirical evidence to compel this perspective, both when the goal is to study stable, trait-level differences between people, as well as when the goal is to study state-related changes within individuals. We hope that this piece will be useful to the neuroimaging community as we continue efforts to characterize inter- and intra-subject variability in brain function and build predictive models with an eye toward eventual real-world applications.