Predictors of All-Cause Mortality among People with HIV in a Prospective Cohort Study in East Africa and Nigeria

Cumulative exposure to depressive symptoms and all-cause mortality among adults with HIV in Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda

OBJECTIVE

We estimated the effects of cumulative exposure to depressive symptoms on risk of all-cause mortality among people with HIV (PWH) in four African countries.

DESIGN

An analysis of prospective cohort data.

METHODS

The African Cohort Study (AFRICOS) is a prospective cohort of people receiving care at twelve clinics in Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda. Every 6 months from January 2013 to May 2020, participants underwent laboratory monitoring, structured surveys, and assessment of depressive symptom severity using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). All-cause mortality was the outcome of interest. The predictor of interest was a time-updated measure of the percentage of days lived with depression (PDD). Marginal structural Cox proportional hazards regression models were used, adjusting for potential confounders including time-varying alcohol use, drug use, and viral load.

RESULTS

Among 2520 enrolled participants, 1479 (59%) were women and the median age was 38 (interquartile range [IQR]: 32-46). At enrollment, 1438 (57%) were virally suppressed (<200 copies/ml) and 457 (18%) had CES-D at least 16, indicating possible depression. Across 9093 observed person-years, the median PDD was 0.7% (IQR: 0-5.9%) with 0.8 deaths per 100 person-years. Leading causes of death included cancer (18% of deaths) and accidents (14%). Models suggested that each 25% absolute increase in PDD was associated with a 69% increase in the risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio: 1.69; 95% confidence interval: 1.18-2.43).

CONCLUSION

Cumulative exposure to depressive symptoms was substantially associated with the risk of mortality in this cohort of PWH in Africa.

Advanced HIV disease in East Africa and Nigeria, in The African Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Earlier antiretroviral therapy (ART) may decrease progression to advanced HIV disease (AHD) with CD4 count of <200 cells per cubic millimeter or clinical sequelae. We assessed factors associated with AHD among people living with HIV before and during the "test and treat" era.

SETTING

The African Cohort Study prospectively enrolls adults with and without HIV from 12 clinics in Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Nigeria.

METHODS

Enrollment evaluations included clinical history, physical examination, and laboratory testing. Generalized estimating equations were used to estimate adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for factors associated with CD4 count of <200 cells per cubic millimeter at study visits.

RESULTS

From 2013 to 2021, 3059 people living with HIV with available CD4 at enrollment were included; median age was 38 years [interquartile range: 30-46 years], and 41.3% were men. From 2013 to 2021, the prevalence of CD4 count of <200 cells per cubic millimeter decreased from 10.5% to 3.1%, whereas the percentage on ART increased from 76.6% to 100% ( P <0.001). Factors associated with higher odds of CD4 count of <200 cells per cubic millimeter were male sex (adjusted odds ratio 1.56 [confidence interval: 1.29 to 1.89]), being 30-39 years (1.42 [1.11-1.82]) or older (compared with <30), have World Health Organization stage 2 disease (1.91 [1.48-2.49]) or higher (compared with stage 1), and HIV diagnosis eras 2013-2015 (2.19 [1.42-3.37]) or later (compared with <2006). Compared with ART-naive, unsuppressed participants, being viral load suppressed on ART, regardless of ART duration, was associated with lower odds of CD4 count of <200 cells per cubic millimeter (<6 months on ART: 0.45 [0.34-0.58]).

CONCLUSION

With ART scale-up, AHD has declined. Efforts targeting timely initiation of suppressive ART may further reduce AHD risk.

A retrospective cohort analysis of people living with HIV/AIDS enrolled in HIV care at a reference center in Antananarivo, Madagascar

Background

The impact of the "Treat all" policy on the individual and in terms of public health is closely related to early diagnosis and retention in care. Patient-level data are scarce in Madagascar. In this study, we aimed to describe the profile of a cohort of newly diagnosed people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV), identify their outcomes, and assess factors associated with attrition from care and advanced HIV disease (AHD) at presentation.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of PLHIV aged ≥15 years newly diagnosed at the University Hospital Joseph Raseta Befelatanana Antananarivo from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2016.

Results

A total of 490 PLHIV were included in the cohort analysis. In total, 67.1% were male. The median age (interquartile range) at enrollment in care was 29 years (24-38). Overall, 36.1% of PLHIV were diagnosed with AHD at baseline. The proportion of patients with WHO stage IV at baseline increased significantly from 3.3% in 2010 to 31% in 2016 (p = 0.001 for trend). The probability of retention in care after the diagnosis at 12 months, 24 months, and 36 months was 71.8%, 65.5%, and 61.3%, respectively. Age ≥ 40 years (aHR: 1.55; 95% CI: 1.05-2.29; p = 0.026), low level of education (aHR:1.62; 95% CI: 1.11-2.36; p = 0,013), unspecified level of education (aHR:2.18; 95% CI: 1.37-3.47; p = 0.001) and unemployment (aHR:1.52; 95% CI: 1.07-2.16; p = 0.019) were independently associated with attrition from care. Factors associated with AHD at baseline were age ≥ 40 (aOR: 2.77; 95% CI: 1.38-5.57, p = 0.004), unspecified level of education (aOR: 3.80; 95% CI: 1.58-9.16, p = 0.003) and presence of clinical symptoms at baseline (aOR: 23.81; 95% CI: 10.7-52.98; p < 0.001). Sex workers were independently less likely to have an AHD at presentation (aOR: 0.23; 95% CI: 0.05-0.96, p = 0.044).

Conclusion

Sociodemographic determinants influenced retention in care more than clinical factors. The presence of clinical symptoms and sociodemographic determinants were the main factors associated with AHD at baseline.

Person-centred, integrated non-communicable disease and HIV decentralized drug distribution in Eswatini and South Africa: outcomes and challenges

INTRODUCTION

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are highly prevalent in people living with HIV above 50 years of age and account for increasing mortality. There is little published evidence supporting person-centred, integrated models of HIV care, hypertension and diabetes treatment in southern Africa, and no data demonstrating mortality reduction. Where clinical visits for NCDs and HIV cannot be combined, integrated medication delivery presents an opportunity to streamline care and reduce patient costs. We present experiences of integrated HIV and NCD medication delivery in Eswatini and South Africa, focusing on programme successes and implementation challenges. Programmatic data from Eswatini's Community Health Commodities Distribution (CHCD) from April 2020 to December 2021 and South Africa's Central Chronic Medicines Dispensing and Distribution (CCMDD) from January 2016 to December 2021 were provided by programme managers and are summarized here.

DISCUSSION

Launched in 2020, Eswatini's CHCD provides over 28,000 people with and without HIV with integrated services, including HIV testing, CD4 cell count testing, antiretroviral therapy refills, viral load monitoring and pre-exposure prophylaxis alongside NCD services, including blood pressure and glucose monitoring and hypertension and diabetes medication refills.  Communities designate neighbourhood care points and central gathering places for person-centred medication dispensing.  This programme reported fewer missed medication refill appointments among clients in community settings compared to facility-based settings. South Africa's CCMDD utilizes decentralized drug distribution to provide medications for over 2.9 million people, including those living with HIV, hypertension and diabetes.  CCMDD incorporates community-based pickup points, facility "fast lanes" and adherence clubs with public sector health facilities and private sector medication collection units.  There are no out-of-pocket payments for medications or testing commodities.  Wait-times for medication refills are lower at CCMDD sites than facility-based sites.  Innovations to reduce stigma include uniformly labelled medication packages for NCD and HIV medications.

CONCLUSIONS

Eswatini and South Africa demonstrate person-centred models for HIV and NCD integration through decentralized drug distribution. This approach adapts medication delivery to serve individual needs and decongest centralized health facilities while efficiently delivering NCD care.  To bolster programme uptake, additional reporting of integrated decentralized drug distribution models should include HIV and NCD outcomes and mortality trends.

High-risk human papillomavirus genotype distribution among women living with and at risk for HIV in Africa

OBJECTIVE

Cervical cancer is a common preventable cancer among African women living with HIV (WLWH). Molecular diagnostics for high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) genotypes are standard components of cervical cancer screening in resource-rich countries but not in resource-limited settings. We evaluated HR-HPV genotypes among women with and without HIV in four African countries to inform cervical cancer preventive strategies.

METHODS

The African Cohort Study (AFRICOS) enrolled participants with and without HIV at 12 clinics in Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, and Nigeria. Cervical cytobrush specimens from women were genotyped for 14 HR-HPV types using the multiplex Seegene Anyplex real-time PCR assay. Robust Poisson regression was used to estimate relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for factors associated with HR-HPV in WLWH.

RESULTS

From January 2015 to March 2020, 868 WLWH and 134 women living without HIV (WLWoH) were tested for HR-HPV with prevalence of 50.9 and 38.1%, respectively ( P  = 0.007). Among WLWH, 844 (97.4%) were antiretroviral therapy (ART)-experienced and 772 (89.7%) virally suppressed 1000 copies/ml or less. The most frequent HR-HPV types among WLWH were HPV-16 (13.5%), HPV-52 (9.5%), and HPV-35 (9.3%). HR-HPV infection was more common among Tanzanian WLWH (adjusted RR: 1.23, 95% CI 1.05-1.44, P  = 0.012). Also, WLWH with CD4 + T cells of less than 200 cell/μl had 1.51-fold increased risk of having HR-HPV (95% CI 1.23-1.86, P  < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

HR-HPV was common in WLWH in four African countries, particularly among women with low CD4 + cell count. Scale up of HPV vaccines and development of vaccines with broader activity against less common HR-HPV types may improve cervical cancer prevention in Africa.

Disengagement From HIV Care and Failure of Second-Line Therapy in Nigeria: A Retrospective Cohort Study, 2005-2017

BACKGROUND

Understanding the correlates of disengagement from HIV care and treatment failure during second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) could inform interventions to improve clinical outcomes among people living with HIV (PLHIV).

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of PLHIV aged >15 years who started second-line ART at a tertiary center in Nigeria between 2005 and 2017. Participants were considered to have disengaged from care if they had not returned within a year after each clinic visit. Cox proportional hazard models were used to investigate factors associated with: (1) viral failure (HIV-1 RNA >1000 copies/mL), (2) immunologic failure (CD4 count decrease or <100 cells/mm3), and (3) severe weight loss (>10% of bodyweight), after >6 months of second-line ART.

RESULTS

Among 1031 participants, 33% (341) disengaged from care during a median follow-up of 6.9 years (interquartile range 3.7-8.5). Of these, 26% (89/341) subsequently reentered care. Disengagement was associated with male gender, age <30 years, lower education level, and low CD4 count at second-line ART initiation. Among participants with endpoint assessments available, 20% (112/565) experienced viral failure, 32% (257/809) experienced immunologic failure, and 23% (190/831) experienced weight loss. A lower risk of viral failure was associated with professional occupations compared with elementary: adjusted hazard ratio 0.17 (95% confidence interval 0.04 to 0.70).

CONCLUSION

Adverse outcomes were common during second-line ART. However, reengagement is possible and resources should be allocated to focus on retaining PLHIV in care and providing services to trace and reengage those who have disengaged from care.