Effectiveness of Messenger RNA Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccines Against Symptomatic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infections During the Delta Variant Epidemic in Japan: Vaccine Effectiveness Real-time Surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 (VERSUS)

Impact of COVID-19 vaccination status on hospitalization and disease severity: A descriptive study in Nagasaki Prefecture, Japan

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was extraordinarily harmful, with high rates of infection and hospitalization. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 vaccination status and other factors on hospitalization and disease severity, using data from Nagasaki Prefecture, Japan. Confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection with vaccination status were included and the differences in characteristics between different vaccination statuses, hospitalization or not, and patients with varying levels of disease severity were analyzed. Furthermore, logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratio (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to evaluate the association of various factors with hospitalization and disease severity. From March 14, 2020 to August 31, 2022, 23,139 patients were unvaccinated 13,668 vaccinated the primary program with one or two doses, and 4,575 completed the booster. Vaccination reduced the risk of hospitalization with an odd ratio of 0.759 (95% CI: 0.654-0.881) and the protective effect of completed booster vaccination was more pronounced (OR: 0.261, 95% CI: 0.207-0.328). Similarly, vaccination significantly reduced the risk of disease severity (vaccinated primary program: OR: 0.191, 95% CI: 0.160-0.228; completed booster vaccination: OR: 0.129, 95% CI: 0.099-0.169). Overall, unvaccinated, male, elderly, immunocompromised, obese, and patients with other severe illness factors were all risk factors for COVID-19-related hospitalization and disease severity. Vaccination was associated with a decreased risk of hospitalization and disease severity, and highlighted the benefits of completing booster.

Projections of the incidence of COVID-19 in Japan and the potential impact of a Fall 2023 COVID-19 vaccine

BACKGROUND

The study objective was to estimate the incidence of COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and deaths in Japan from September 2023 to August 2024 and potential impact of a monovalent XBB.1.5 variant-adapted Fall 2023 COVID-19 vaccine (modified version: XBB monovalent) for adults aged ≥18 years on these outcomes.

METHODS

A previously developed Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model for the United States (US) was adapted to Japan. The numbers of symptomatic infections, COVID-19-related hospitalizations, and deaths were calculated. Given differences in vaccination coverage, masking practices and social mixing patterns between the US and Japan, all inputs were updated to reflect the Japanese context. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) values are hypothetical, but predicted based on existing VE values of bivalent BA.4/BA.5 boosters against BA.4/BA.5 in Japan, from the VERSUS test-negative case-control study. Sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

The base case model predicts overall that there will be approximately 35.2 million symptomatic COVID-19 infections, 690,000 hospitalizations, and 62,000 deaths in Japan between September 2023 and August 2024. If an updated COVID-19 vaccine is offered to all adults aged 18 years and older in Fall 2023, the model predicts that 7.3 million infections, 275,000 hospitalizations and 26,000 deaths will be prevented. If vaccines are only given to those aged 65 years and older, only 2.9 million infections, 180,000 hospitalizations and 19,000 deaths will be prevented. Sensitivity analysis results suggest that hospitalizations and deaths prevented are most sensitive to initial VE against infection and hospitalizations, and the waning rate associated with VE against infection. Symptomatic infections prevented was most sensitive to initial VE against infection and VE waning.

CONCLUSIONS

Results suggest that a Fall 2023 COVID-19 vaccine would reduce total numbers of COVID-19-related infections, hospitalizations, and deaths.

Real-world effectiveness of full and booster mRNA vaccination for coronavirus disease 2019 against disease severity during the delta- and omicron-dominant phases: A propensity score-matched cohort study using the nationwide registry data in Japan

BACKGROUND

To date, few studies from the Asian region have reported the effectiveness of messenger ribonucleic acid coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines against disease progression and death after hospitalization.

METHODS

We evaluated the data from the COVID-19 registry in Japan during the delta- and omicron-dominant phases. A propensity score-matched cohort study was conducted between the incompletely (0-1 dose) and fully (2 doses) vaccinated groups during the delta-dominant phase and among the incompletely, fully, and booster (3 doses) vaccinated groups during the omicron-dominant phase.

RESULTS

In the delta-dominant phase, 411 pairs were matched. The fully vaccinated group showed a significantly lower oxygen supplementation rate (24.1 % vs. 41.1 %, p < 0.001) but little difference in the mortality rate (2.2 % vs. 2.9 %, p = 0.66). In the omicron-dominant phase, 1494 pairs from the incompletely and fully vaccinated groups, and 425 pairs from the fully and booster vaccinated groups were matched. Full vaccination reduced both the oxygen supplementation rate (18.6 % vs 25.7 %, p < 0.001) and mortality rate (0.7 % vs 2.3 %, p < 0.001). Booster vaccination showed little difference in either the rate of oxygen supplementation (21.2 % vs. 24.7 %, p = 0.25) or mortality (1.2 % vs. 2.6 %, p = 0.21) compared with full vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

Full vaccination reduced disease severity during the delta- and omicron-dominant phases; booster vaccination did not further enhance the protective effects against disease progression during the omicron-dominant phase compared to full vaccination. Future vaccine strategies and policy decisions should consider preventing infection or disease progression in the target population, as well as the characteristics of the dominant variant in that phase.

Effectiveness of primary series, first, and second booster vaccination of monovalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccines against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections and severe diseases during the SARS-CoV-2 omicron BA.5 epidemic in Japan: vaccine effectiveness real-time surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 (VERSUS)

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to evaluate VE of primary, first, and second booster ancestral-strain monovalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccination against symptomatic infections and severe diseases in Japan.

METHODS

We conducted a test-negative case-control study. We included medically attended episodes and hospitalizations involving individuals aged ≥ 16 with signs and symptoms from July to November 2022, when Omicron BA.5 was dominant nationwide. To evaluate VE, we calculated adjusted ORs of vaccination among test-positive versus test-negative individuals using a mixed-effects logistic regression.

RESULTS

For VE against symptomatic infections among individuals aged 16 to 59, VE of primary vaccination at > 180 days was 26.1% (95% CI: 10.6-38.8%); VE of the first booster was 58.5% (48.4-66.7%) at ≤ 90 days, decreasing to 41.1% (29.5-50.8%) at 91 to 180 days. For individuals aged ≥ 60, VE of the first booster was 42.8% (1.7-66.7%) at ≤ 90 days, dropping to 15.4% (-25.9-43.2%) at 91 to 180 days, and then increasing to 44.0% (16.4-62.5%) after the second booster. For VE against severe diseases, VE of the first and second booster was 77.3% (61.2-86.7%) at ≤ 90 days and 55.9% (23.4-74.6%) afterward.

CONCLUSION

mRNA booster vaccination provided moderate protection against symptomatic infections and high-level protection against severe diseases during the BA.5 epidemic in Japan.

Negative impact of immunoparesis in response to anti-SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination of patients with multiple myeloma

Multiple myeloma reduces cellular and humoral immunity. Optimal prediction of antibody response to anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine in patients with MM and related disorders is essential to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. This study analyzed the humoral response to the anti-SARS-CoV-2 messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) vaccine and its associated factor in 83 patients from June to November 2021 at seven member institutions of the Kyoto Clinical Hematology Study Group. SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody (nAb) was measured from 12 to 210 days. The result revealed that 40 (48.2%) patients with MM and 59 (100%) healthy controls became seropositive after vaccination. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis identified serum immunoglobulin (Ig) M of > 18 mg/dL at vaccination as the optimal threshold level associated with seropositivity in the whole cohort. Moreover, the multivariate analysis identified serum IgM of > 18 mg/dL as the independent predictor for a favorable response. Serum IgA level was positively associated with vaccine response in a sub-cohort. Our findings indicate a significant association between immunoparesis and impaired humoral response against mRNA vaccination, including that against SARS-CoV-2, and that serum non-M-protein Ig levels can serve as surrogate biomarkers of nAb production ability.

Vaccine efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 for Pfizer BioNTech, Moderna, and AstraZeneca vaccines: a systematic review

The purpose of this systematic review was to report on the vaccine efficacy (VE) of three SARS-CoV-2 vaccines approved by Health Canada: Pfizer BioNTech, Moderna, and AstraZeneca. Four databases were searched for primary publications on population-level VE. Ninety-two publications matched the inclusion criteria, and the extracted data were separated by vaccine type: mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) and the AstraZeneca vaccine. The median VE for PCR-positive patients and various levels of clinical disease was determined for the first and second doses of both vaccine types against multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants. The median VE for PCR-positive infections against unidentified variants from an mRNA vaccine was 64.5 and 89%, respectively, after one or two doses. The median VE for PCR-positive infections against unidentified variants from the AstraZeneca vaccine was 53.4 and 69.6%, respectively, after one or two doses. The median VE for two doses of mRNA for asymptomatic, symptomatic, and severe infection against unidentified variants was 85.5, 93.2, and 92.2%, respectively. The median VE for two doses of AstraZeneca for asymptomatic, symptomatic, and severe infection against unidentified variants was 69.7, 71, and 90.2%, respectively. Vaccine efficacy numerically increased from the first to the second dose, increased from the first 2 weeks to the second 2 weeks post-vaccination for both doses, but decreased after 4 months from the second dose. Vaccine efficacy did not differ by person's age.

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 against infection, symptomatic infection, and hospitalization among older adults aged ≥65 years during the Delta variant predominance in Japan: The VENUS Study

BACKGROUND

We evaluated the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 vaccine against infection, symptomatic infection, and hospitalization in older people during the Delta-predominant period (July 1 to September 30, 2021).

METHODS

We performed a population-based cohort study in an older adult population aged ≥65 years using data from the Vaccine Effectiveness, Networking, and Universal Safety Study conducted from January 1, 2019, to September 30, 2021, in Japan. We matched BNT162b2 vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in a 1:1 ratio on the date of vaccination of the vaccinated individual. We evaluated the effectiveness of the vaccine against infection, symptomatic infection, and COVID-19-related hospitalization by comparing the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. We estimated the risk ratio and risk difference using the Kaplan-Meier method with inverse probability weighting. The vaccine effectiveness was calculated as (1 - risk ratio) × 100%.

RESULTS

The study included 203,574 matched pairs aged ≥65 years. At 7 days after the second dose, the vaccine effectiveness (95% confidence interval) of BNT162b2 against infection, symptomatic infection, and hospitalization was 78.1% (65.2 to 87.8%), 79.1% (64.6 to 88.9%), and 93.5% (83.7 to 100%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

BNT162b2 was highly effective against infection, symptomatic infection, and hospitalization in Japan's older adult population aged ≥65 years during the Delta-predominant period.

Effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections during the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 epidemic in Japan: vaccine effectiveness real-time surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 (VERSUS)

BACKGROUND

Evaluating COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) domestically is crucial for assessing and determining national vaccination policy. This study aimed to evaluate VE of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in Japan.

METHODS

We conducted a multicenter test-negative case-control study. The study comprised individuals aged ≥16 visiting medical facilities with COVID-19-related signs or symptoms from 1 January to 26 June 2022, when Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 were dominant nationwide. We evaluated VE of primary and booster vaccination against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections and relative VE of booster compared with primary.

RESULTS

We enrolled 7,931 episodes, including 3,055 test positive. The median age was 39, 48.0% were male, and 20.5% had underlying medical conditions. In individuals aged 16 to 64, VE of primary vaccination within 90 days was 35.6% (95% CI, 19.0-48.8%). After booster, VE increased to 68.7% (60.6-75.1%). In individuals aged ≥65, VE of primary and booster was 31.2% (-44.0-67.1%) and 76.5% (46.7-89.7%), respectively. Relative VE of booster compared with primary vaccination was 52.9% (41.0-62.5%) in individuals aged 16 to 64 and 65.9% (35.7-81.9%) in individuals aged ≥65.

CONCLUSIONS

During BA.1 and BA.2 epidemic in Japan, mRNA COVID-19 primary vaccination provided modest protection. Booster vaccination was necessary to protect against symptomatic infections.

Effectiveness of messenger RNA vaccines against infection with SARS-CoV-2 during the periods of Delta and Omicron variant predominance in Japan: the Vaccine Effectiveness, Networking, and Universal Safety (VENUS) study

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to evaluate COVID-19 messenger RNA vaccine effectiveness during the Delta- and Omicron-predominant periods in Japan.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based cohort study among individuals aged 16-64 years during two periods: the Delta-predominant period (July 1-December 31, 2021) and the Omicron-predominant period (January 1-March 29, 2022).

RESULTS

When comparing individuals who were vaccinated with those who were unvaccinated, the effectiveness of a second dose against symptomatic infection was 89.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 80.5-94.7%) during the Delta-predominant period and 21.2% (95% CI: 11.0-30.3%) during the Omicron-predominant period. The effectiveness of a third dose against symptomatic infection was 71.8% (95% CI: 60.1-80.1%) during the Omicron-predominant period.

CONCLUSION

Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection decreased during the Omicron-predominant period but was maintained by a third dose.

Effectiveness of a Third Dose of COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine During the Omicron BA.1- and BA.2-Predominant Periods in Japan: The VENUS Study

Background

Vaccine effectiveness against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Omicron BA.2 sublineage in Japan is unknown. We assessed the effectiveness of a third dose of COVID-19 mRNA vaccine compared with that of 2 doses.

Methods

We performed a population-based cohort study using a municipality database located in the Chubu region of Japan during the Omicron BA.1- and BA.2-predominant periods (January 1-March 31, 2022 and April 1-27, 2022, respectively). We included residents aged ≥16 years who received a second vaccine dose at ≥14 days before the start of each period, regardless of the third dose. We compared the data at 14 days after the second and third dose and at 2-week intervals from 14 days to 10 weeks after the third dose using a Cox regression model. Vaccine effectiveness was defined as (1 - hazard ratio) × 100 (%).

Results

In total, 295 705 and 288 184 individuals were included in the BA.1- and BA.2-predominant periods, respectively. The effectiveness of a third dose against infection was 62.4% and 48.1% in the BA.1- and BA.2-predominant periods, respectively. Vaccine effectiveness at 2-3 weeks and ≥10 weeks after the third dose decreased from 63.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 56.4-69.5%) to 52.9% (95% CI, 41.1-62.3%) and from 54.5% (95% CI, 3.0-78.7%) to 40.1% (95% CI, 15.1-57.7%) in the BA.1- and BA.2-predominant periods, respectively.

Conclusions

A third dose was moderately effective against BA.1 and BA.2 sublineages, but its effectiveness decreased by approximately 10% age points from 2-3 weeks to ≥10 weeks after the third vaccination.