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Yu EA, Stone M, Bravo MD, Grebe E, Bruhn RL, Lanteri MC, Townsend M, Kamel H, Jones JM, Busch MP, Custer B. Associations of Temporal Cardiometabolic Patterns and Incident SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among U.S. Blood Donors With Serologic Evidence of Vaccination. AJPM FOCUS 2024; 3:100186. [PMID: 38304025 PMCID: PMC10832374 DOI: 10.1016/j.focus.2024.100186] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/03/2024]
Abstract
Introduction Cardiometabolic diseases are associated with greater COVID-19 severity; however, the influences of cardiometabolic health on SARS-CoV-2 infections after vaccination remain unclear. Our objective was to investigate the associations between temporal blood pressure and total cholesterol patterns and incident SARS-CoV-2 infections among those with serologic evidence of vaccination. Methods In this prospective cohort of blood donors, blood samples were collected in 2020-2021 and assayed for binding antibodies of SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein antibody seropositivity. We categorized participants into intraindividual pattern subgroups of blood pressure and total cholesterol (persistently, intermittently, or not elevated [systolic blood pressure <130 mmHg, diastolic blood pressure <80 mmHg, total cholesterol <200 mg/dL]) across the study time points. Results Among 13,930 donors with 39,736 donations representing 1,127,071 person-days, there were 221 incident SARS-CoV-2 infections among those with serologic evidence of vaccination (1.6%). Intermittent hypertension was associated with greater SARS-CoV-2 infections among those with serologic evidence of vaccination risk (adjusted incidence rate ratio=2.07; 95% CI=1.44, 2.96; p<0.01) than among participants with consistent normotension on the basis of a multivariable Poisson regression. Among men, intermittently elevated total cholesterol (adjusted incidence rate ratio=1.90; 95% CI=1.32, 2.74; p<0.01) and higher BMI at baseline (adjusted hazard ratio=1.44; 95% CI=1.07, 1.93; p=0.01; per 10 units) were associated with greater SARS-CoV-2 infections among those with serologic evidence of vaccination probability; these associations were null among women (both p>0.05). Conclusions Our findings underscore that the benefits of cardiometabolic health, particularly blood pressure, include a lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection after vaccination.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elaine A. Yu
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, California
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California
| | - Mars Stone
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, California
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California
| | | | - Eduard Grebe
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, California
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California
| | - Roberta L. Bruhn
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, California
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California
| | - Marion C. Lanteri
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California
- Creative Testing Solutions, Tempe, Arizona
| | | | | | | | - Michael P. Busch
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, California
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California
- Vitalant, Scottsdale, Arizona
| | - Brian Custer
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, California
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California
- Vitalant, Scottsdale, Arizona
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Roubinian NH, Greene J, Liu VX, Lee C, Mark DG, Vinson DR, Spencer BR, Bruhn R, Bravo M, Stone M, Custer B, Kleinman S, Busch MP, Norris PJ. Clinical outcomes in hospitalized plasma and platelet transfusion recipients prior to and following widespread blood donor SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination. Transfusion 2024; 64:53-67. [PMID: 38054619 PMCID: PMC10842807 DOI: 10.1111/trf.17616] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2023] [Revised: 11/06/2023] [Accepted: 11/09/2023] [Indexed: 12/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The safety of transfusion of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in high plasma volume blood components to recipients without COVID-19 is not established. We assessed whether transfusion of plasma or platelet products during periods of increasing prevalence of blood donor SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination was associated with changes in outcomes in hospitalized patients without COVID-19. METHODS We conducted a retrospective cohort study of hospitalized adults who received plasma or platelet transfusions at 21 hospitals during pre-COVID-19 (3/1/2018-2/29/2020), COVID-19 pre-vaccine (3/1/2020-2/28/2021), and COVID-19 post-vaccine (3/1/2021-8/31/2022) study periods. We used multivariable logistic regression with generalized estimating equations to adjust for demographics and comorbidities to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS Among 21,750 hospitalizations of 18,584 transfusion recipients without COVID-19, there were 697 post-transfusion thrombotic events, and oxygen requirements were increased in 1751 hospitalizations. Intensive care unit length of stay (n = 11,683) was 3 days (interquartile range 1-5), hospital mortality occurred in 3223 (14.8%), and 30-day rehospitalization in 4144 (23.7%). Comparing the pre-COVID, pre-vaccine and post-vaccine study periods, there were no trends in thromboses (OR 0.9 [95% CI 0.8, 1.1]; p = .22) or oxygen requirements (OR 1.0 [95% CI 0.9, 1.1]; p = .41). In parallel, there were no trends across study periods for ICU length of stay (p = .83), adjusted hospital mortality (OR 1.0 [95% CI 0.9-1.0]; p = .36), or 30-day rehospitalization (p = .29). DISCUSSION Transfusion of plasma and platelet blood components collected during the pre-vaccine and post-vaccine periods of the COVID-19 pandemic was not associated with increased adverse outcomes in transfusion recipients without COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nareg H Roubinian
- Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Oakland, California, USA
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, California, USA
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, UCSF, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - John Greene
- Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Oakland, California, USA
| | - Vincent X Liu
- Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Oakland, California, USA
| | - Catherine Lee
- Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Oakland, California, USA
| | - Dustin G Mark
- Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Oakland, California, USA
| | - David R Vinson
- Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Oakland, California, USA
| | - Bryan R Spencer
- American Red Cross, Scientific Affairs, Dedham, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Roberta Bruhn
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, California, USA
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, UCSF, San Francisco, California, USA
| | | | - Mars Stone
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, California, USA
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, UCSF, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Brian Custer
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, California, USA
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, UCSF, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Steve Kleinman
- University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Michael P Busch
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, California, USA
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, UCSF, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Philip J Norris
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, California, USA
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, UCSF, San Francisco, California, USA
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3
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Vo M, Feng Z, Glasser JW, Clarke KEN, Jones JN. Analysis of metapopulation models of the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States. J Math Biol 2023; 87:24. [PMID: 37421486 DOI: 10.1007/s00285-023-01948-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2022] [Revised: 04/18/2023] [Accepted: 06/08/2023] [Indexed: 07/10/2023]
Abstract
During the COVID-19 pandemic, renewal equation estimates of time-varying effective reproduction numbers were useful to policymakers in evaluating the need for and impact of mitigation measures. Our objective here is to illustrate the utility of mechanistic expressions for the basic and effective (or intrinsic and realized) reproduction numbers, [Formula: see text] and related quantities derived from a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model including features of COVID-19 that might affect transmission of SARS-CoV-2, including asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, and symptomatic infections, with which people may be hospitalized. Expressions from homogeneous host population models can be analyzed to determine the effort needed to reduce [Formula: see text] from [Formula: see text] to 1 and contributions of modeled mitigation measures. Our model is stratified by age, 0-4, 5-9, …, 75+ years, and location, the 50 states plus District of Columbia. Expressions from such heterogeneous host population models include subpopulation reproduction numbers, contributions from the above-mentioned infectious states, metapopulation numbers, subpopulation contributions, and equilibrium prevalence. While the population-immunity at which [Formula: see text] has captured the popular imagination, the metapopulation [Formula: see text] could be attained in an infinite number of ways even if only one intervention (e.g., vaccination) were capable of reducing [Formula: see text] However, gradients of expressions derived from heterogeneous host population models,[Formula: see text] can be evaluated to identify optimal allocations of limited resources among subpopulations. We illustrate the utility of such analytical results by simulating two hypothetical vaccination strategies, one uniform and other indicated by [Formula: see text] as well as the actual program estimated from one of the CDC's nationwide seroprevalence surveys conducted from mid-summer 2020 through the end of 2021.
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Affiliation(s)
- MyVan Vo
- Department of Mathematics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, USA
| | - Zhilan Feng
- Department of Mathematics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, USA
- Division of Mathematical Sciences, NSF, Alexandria, USA
| | - John W Glasser
- Coronavirus and Other Respiratory Viruses Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, CDC, 1600 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, GA, 30333, USA.
| | - Kristie E N Clarke
- Center for Surveillance, Epidemiology, and Laboratory Services, CDC, Atlanta, USA
| | - Jefferson N Jones
- Coronavirus and Other Respiratory Viruses Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, CDC, 1600 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, GA, 30333, USA
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García-Carreras B, Hitchings MDT, Johansson MA, Biggerstaff M, Slayton RB, Healy JM, Lessler J, Quandelacy T, Salje H, Huang AT, Cummings DAT. Accounting for assay performance when estimating the temporal dynamics in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in the U.S. Nat Commun 2023; 14:2235. [PMID: 37076502 PMCID: PMC10115837 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37944-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2022] [Accepted: 04/06/2023] [Indexed: 04/21/2023] Open
Abstract
Reconstructing the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection is central to understanding the state of the pandemic. Seroprevalence studies are often used to assess cumulative infections as they can identify asymptomatic infection. Since July 2020, commercial laboratories have conducted nationwide serosurveys for the U.S. CDC. They employed three assays, with different sensitivities and specificities, potentially introducing biases in seroprevalence estimates. Using models, we show that accounting for assays explains some of the observed state-to-state variation in seroprevalence, and when integrating case and death surveillance data, we show that when using the Abbott assay, estimates of proportions infected can differ substantially from seroprevalence estimates. We also found that states with higher proportions infected (before or after vaccination) had lower vaccination coverages, a pattern corroborated using a separate dataset. Finally, to understand vaccination rates relative to the increase in cases, we estimated the proportions of the population that received a vaccine prior to infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bernardo García-Carreras
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
| | - Matt D T Hitchings
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Michael A Johansson
- COVID-19 Response, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Matthew Biggerstaff
- COVID-19 Response, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Rachel B Slayton
- COVID-19 Response, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Jessica M Healy
- COVID-19 Response, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Justin Lessler
- Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
- UNC Carolina Population Center, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | | | - Henrik Salje
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Angkana T Huang
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Derek A T Cummings
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
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Núñez-Franz L, Ramírez-Santana M, Rubilar P, Vial C, Apablaza M, González C, Said M, Olivares K, Cortés LJ, Hormazábal J, Canales L, Vial P, Icaza G, Quezada-Gaete R, Aguilera X. Seroprevalence of Natural and Acquired Immunity against the SARS-CoV-2 Virus in a Population Cohort from Two Chilean Cities, 2020-2022. Viruses 2023; 15:201. [PMID: 36680241 PMCID: PMC9861850 DOI: 10.3390/v15010201] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2022] [Revised: 01/04/2023] [Accepted: 01/06/2023] [Indexed: 01/13/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Chile has achieved the highest coverage for vaccines against the SARS-CoV-2 virus worldwide. OBJECTIVE To assess the progression of immunity (natural and acquired by vaccine) in a cohort from two Chilean cities. METHODS Individuals (n = 386) who participated in three phases of population-based serial prevalence studies were included (2020-2021 and 2022). Presence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was measured in serum. Data including time of vaccination and type of vaccine received were analysed with descriptive statistics. RESULTS Seroprevalence was 3.6% in the first round and increased to 96.9% in the second and 98.7% in the third. In the third round, 75% of individuals who had received the basal full scheme were seropositive at 180 days or more since their last dose; 98% of individuals who received one booster dose were seropositive at 180 days or more, and 100% participants who received two boosters were seropositive, regardless of time since their last dose. Participants receiving mRNA vaccines had higher seroprevalence rates over time. CONCLUSIONS The high vaccination coverage in Chile enabled the population to maintain high levels of antibodies. Vaccination boosters are essential to maintain immunity over time, which also depends on the type of vaccine administered.
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Affiliation(s)
- Loreto Núñez-Franz
- Departamento de Salud Pública, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad de Talca, Talca 3460000, Chile
| | - Muriel Ramírez-Santana
- Public Health Department, Faculty of Medicine, Universidad Católica del Norte, Coquimbo 1780000, Chile
| | - Paola Rubilar
- Centro de Epidemiología y Políticas de Salud, Facultad de Medicina Clínica Alemana Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago 7550000, Chile
| | - Cecilia Vial
- Instituto de Ciencias e Innovación en Medicina, Facultad de Medicina Clínica Alemana Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago 8320000, Chile
| | - Mauricio Apablaza
- Facultad de Gobierno, Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago 7550000, Chile
| | - Claudia González
- Centro de Epidemiología y Políticas de Salud, Facultad de Medicina Clínica Alemana Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago 7550000, Chile
| | - Macarena Said
- Departamento de Salud Pública, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad de Talca, Talca 3460000, Chile
| | - Kathya Olivares
- Public Health Department, Faculty of Medicine, Universidad Católica del Norte, Coquimbo 1780000, Chile
| | - Lina Jimena Cortés
- Instituto de Ciencias e Innovación en Medicina, Facultad de Medicina Clínica Alemana Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago 8320000, Chile
| | - Juan Hormazábal
- Instituto de Ciencias e Innovación en Medicina, Facultad de Medicina Clínica Alemana Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago 8320000, Chile
| | - Luis Canales
- Facultad de Economía y Negocios, Universidad de Talca, Talca 3460000, Chile
| | - Pablo Vial
- Instituto de Ciencias e Innovación en Medicina, Facultad de Medicina Clínica Alemana Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago 8320000, Chile
| | - Gloria Icaza
- Facultad de Economía y Negocios, Universidad de Talca, Talca 3460000, Chile
| | - Rubén Quezada-Gaete
- Public Health Department, Faculty of Medicine, Universidad Católica del Norte, Coquimbo 1780000, Chile
| | - Ximena Aguilera
- Centro de Epidemiología y Políticas de Salud, Facultad de Medicina Clínica Alemana Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago 7550000, Chile
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Analysis of serological surveys of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in the United States to estimate parameters needed for transmission modeling and to evaluate and improve the accuracy of predictions. J Theor Biol 2023; 556:111296. [PMID: 36208669 PMCID: PMC9532270 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111296] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2022] [Revised: 09/02/2022] [Accepted: 09/28/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
Seroprevalence studies can estimate proportions of the population that have been infected or vaccinated, including infections that were not reported because of the lack of symptoms or testing. Based on information from studies in the United States from mid-summer 2020 through the end of 2021, we describe proportions of the population with antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 as functions of age and time. Slices through these surfaces at arbitrary times provide initial and target conditions for simulation modeling. They also provide the information needed to calculate age-specific forces of infection, attack rates, and - together with contact rates - age-specific probabilities of infection on contact between susceptible and infectious people. We modified the familiar Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model to include features of the biology of COVID-19 that might affect transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and stratified by age and location. We consulted the primary literature or subject matter experts for contact rates and other parameter values. Using time-varying Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker assessments of US state and DC efforts to mitigate the pandemic and compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) from a YouGov survey fielded in the US during 2020, we estimate that the efficacy of social-distancing when possible and mask-wearing otherwise at reducing susceptibility or infectiousness was 31% during the fall of 2020. Initialized from seroprevalence among people having commercial laboratory tests for purposes other than SARS-CoV-2 infection assessments on 7 September 2020, our age- and location-stratified SEIR population model reproduces seroprevalence among members of the same population on 25 December 2020 quite well. Introducing vaccination mid-December 2020, first of healthcare and other essential workers, followed by older adults, people who were otherwise immunocompromised, and then progressively younger people, our metapopulation model reproduces seroprevalence among blood donors on 4 April 2021 less well, but we believe that the discrepancy is due to vaccinations being under-reported or blood donors being disproportionately vaccinated, if not both. As experimenting with reliable transmission models is the best way to assess the indirect effects of mitigation measures, we determined the impact of vaccination, conditional on NPIs. Results indicate that, during this period, vaccination substantially reduced infections, hospitalizations and deaths. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics."
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Immunogenicity and Safety of the BNT162b2 COVID-19 Vaccine in Patients with Cystic Fibrosis with or without Lung Transplantation. Int J Mol Sci 2023; 24:ijms24020908. [PMID: 36674422 PMCID: PMC9863932 DOI: 10.3390/ijms24020908] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2022] [Revised: 12/28/2022] [Accepted: 12/30/2022] [Indexed: 01/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Cystic fibrosis (CF) is characterized by a progressive decline in lung function, which may be further impaired by viral infections. CF is therefore considered a comorbidity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and SARS-CoV-2 vaccine prioritization has been proposed for patients with (pw)CF. Poor outcomes have been reported in lung transplant recipients (LTR) after SARS-CoV-2 infections. LTR have also displayed poor immunization against SARS-CoV-2 after mRNA-based BNT162b2 vaccination, especially in those undergoing immunosuppressive treatment, mostly those receiving mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) therapy. We aimed to determine here the immunogenicity and safety of the BNT162b2 vaccine in our cohort of 260 pwCF, including 18 LTR. Serum levels of neutralizing anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgA antibodies were quantified after the administration of two doses. PwCF displayed a vaccine-induced IgG and IgA antiviral response comparable with that seen in the general population. We also observed that the immunogenicity of the BNT162b2 vaccine was significantly impaired in the LTR subcohort, especially in patients undergoing MMF therapy. The BNT162b2 vaccine also caused minor adverse events as in the general population, mostly after administration of the second dose. Overall, our results justify the use of the BNT162b2 vaccine in pwCF and highlight the importance of a longitudinal assessment of the anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgA neutralizing antibody response to COVID-19 vaccination.
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SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence among Canadian Blood Donors: The Advance of Omicron. Viruses 2022; 14:v14112336. [PMID: 36366432 PMCID: PMC9695729 DOI: 10.3390/v14112336] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2022] [Revised: 10/13/2022] [Accepted: 10/17/2022] [Indexed: 02/01/2023] Open
Abstract
With the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in late 2021, Canadian public health case/contact testing was scaled back due to high infection rates with milder symptoms in a highly vaccinated population. We monitored the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid (anti-N) and spike protein (anti-S) antibodies in blood donors across Canada from September 2021 to June 2022 in 202,123 randomly selected samples. Multivariable logistic regression of anti-N positivity with month, age, sex, racialization, region, material and social deprivation (based on postal code) identified as independent predictors. Piece-wise logistic regression analysed the association between anti-S concentration and month, and anti-N/anti-S positivity. Infection-related seroprevalence (anti-N positive) was 4.38% (95% CI: 3.96, 4.81) in September reaching 50.70% (50.15, 52.16) in June; nearly 100% were anti-S positive throughout. Anti-N positivity was associated with younger age, male sex, the Alberta and Prairies regions, greater material deprivation and less social deprivation (p < 0.001). Anti-S concentration was high initially (3306 U/mL, IQR 4280 U/mL), increased to (13,659 U/mL, IQR 28,224 U/mL) by June (p < 0.001), following the pattern of deployment of the third and fourth vaccine doses and was higher in those that were anti-N positive (p < 0.001). Despite already high vaccination-related seroprevalence, infection-related seroprevalence increased dramatically with the emergence of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant.
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Beerman JT, Beaumont GG, Giabbanelli PJ. A Scoping Review of Three Dimensions for Long-Term COVID-19 Vaccination Models: Hybrid Immunity, Individual Drivers of Vaccinal Choice, and Human Errors. Vaccines (Basel) 2022; 10:vaccines10101716. [PMID: 36298581 PMCID: PMC9607873 DOI: 10.3390/vaccines10101716] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2022] [Revised: 09/27/2022] [Accepted: 10/11/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
The virus that causes COVID-19 changes over time, occasionally leading to Variants of Interest (VOIs) and Variants of Concern (VOCs) that can behave differently with respect to detection kits, treatments, or vaccines. For instance, two vaccination doses were 61% effective against the BA.1 predominant variant, but only 24% effective when BA.2 became predominant. While doses still confer protection against severe disease outcomes, the BA.5 variant demonstrates the possibility that individuals who have received a few doses built for previous variants can still be infected with newer variants. As previous vaccines become less effective, new ones will be released to target specific variants and the whole process of vaccinating the population will restart. While previous models have detailed logistical aspects and disease progression, there are three additional key elements to model COVID-19 vaccination coverage in the long term. First, the willingness of the population to participate in regular vaccination campaigns is essential for long-term effective COVID-19 vaccination coverage. Previous research has shown that several categories of variables drive vaccination status: sociodemographic, health-related, psychological, and information-related constructs. However, the inclusion of these categories in future models raises questions about the identification of specific factors (e.g., which sociodemographic aspects?) and their operationalization (e.g., how to initialize agents with a plausible combination of factors?). While previous models separately accounted for natural- and vaccine-induced immunity, the reality is that a significant fraction of individuals will be both vaccinated and infected over the coming years. Modeling the decay in immunity with respect to new VOCs will thus need to account for hybrid immunity. Finally, models rarely assume that individuals make mistakes, even though this over-reliance on perfectly rational individuals can miss essential dynamics. Using the U.S. as a guiding example, our scoping review summarizes these aspects (vaccinal choice, immunity, and errors) through ten recommendations to support the modeling community in developing long-term COVID-19 vaccination models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jack T. Beerman
- Department of Computer Science & Software Engineering, Miami University, Oxford, OH 45056, USA
| | - Gwendal G. Beaumont
- Department of Computer Science & Software Engineering, Miami University, Oxford, OH 45056, USA
- IMT Mines Ales, 6 Av. de Clavieres, 30100 Ales, France
| | - Philippe J. Giabbanelli
- Department of Computer Science & Software Engineering, Miami University, Oxford, OH 45056, USA
- Correspondence:
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10
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Kutty PK, Stuckey MJ, Koumans EH. Vaccines, Variants, and Vigilance: Strengthening the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Public Health Response Through Partnerships and Collaborations. Clin Infect Dis 2022; 75:S141-S146. [PMID: 35748638 PMCID: PMC9278239 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciac522] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2022] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC); state, tribal, local, and territorial health departments; other US government departments and agencies; the private sector; and international partners have engaged in a real-time public health response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Vaccination, variants, and vigilance were themes that arose in the second year of pandemic response in the United States. The findings included in this supplement emerged from these themes and represent some of the many collaborative efforts to improve public health knowledge and action to reduce transmission, infection, and disease severity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Preeta K Kutty
- U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Matthew J Stuckey
- U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Emilia H Koumans
- Corresponding author: Emilia H. Koumans, MD, MPH Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Division Of Reproductive Health 1600 Clifton Rd, MS E-02 Atlanta, GA USA 30333
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