Patterns of progression of chronic kidney disease at later stages

Exploring the unmet needs and experiences of informal caregivers of patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) receiving haemodialysis - a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Patients with end stage kidney disease (ESKD) receiving haemodialysis experience multiple symptoms, which can present physical and emotional challenges for both patients and their informal caregivers. Caregivers can experience anxiety, depression, and social isolation negatively impacting their overall wellbeing and resulting in caregiver burden. The needs of this group of caregivers have been largely neglected, with little emphasis placed on supportive interventions that might assist and support them in their caring role.

AIM

The aim of this study Is to explore the unmet needs and experiences of caregivers of patients with ESKD receiving haemodialysis, and to determine the components of a supportive intervention.

DESIGN

A qualitative study using semi-structured interviews (n = 24) with informal caregivers. An interpretive qualitative framework was employed to generate a rich understanding of the unmet needs and experiences of caregivers. Data was analysed using thematic analysis. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and data management was assisted through NVIVO version 11.

SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

Twenty-four informal caregivers were purposively recruited from two haemodialysis settings within Northern Ireland.

RESULTS

Three themes were identified: (1) The negative impact of distress, anxiety, and isolation on caregivers due to their caregiving responsibilities (2) Inadequate information and knowledge about the complexities of renal care (3) The benefits of spiritual beliefs, stress management and peer support in relieving the caregiving burden.

CONCLUSIONS

Caregivers of patients with ESKD receiving haemodialysis are at increased risk of physical and psychological distress and burden arising from their caregiving role. The unpredictable nature of ESKD and haemodialysis treatment negatively impacts the caregiver experience and adds to the challenges of the role. The information needs of caregivers are not always adequately met and they subsequently lack appropriate knowledge, skills, and guidance to assist them in their caregiving role. Supportive interventions are essential for caregivers to enhance their capability to deliver effective care and improve their quality of life.

Trajectories of kidney function and risk of mortality

BACKGROUND

We aimed to identify patterns within the rate of kidney function decline, determinants of these patterns and their association with all-cause mortality risk in the general population.

METHODS

Participants aged ≥ 45 years with at least one assessment of creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) taken between 1997 and 2018 were selected from a population-based cohort study. Analyses were performed using several distinct latent class trajectory modelling methods. Cumulative incidences were calculated with 45 years of age as the starting point.

RESULTS

In 12 062 participants (85 922 eGFR assessments, mean age 67.0 years, 58.7% women, median follow-up 9.6 years), four trajectories of eGFR change with age were identified: slow eGFR decline [rate of change in mL/min/1.73 m2 per year (RC), -0.9; 95% CI, -0.9 to -0.9; reference group], intermediate eGFR decline (RC, -2.5; 95% CI, -2.7 to -2.5) and fast eGFR decline (RC, -4.3; 95% CI, -4.4 to -4.1), and an increase/stable eGFR (RC, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.3 to 0.4). Women were more likely to have an increase/stable eGFR [odds ratio (OR), 1.94; 95% CI, 1.53 to 2.46] whereas men were more likely to have a fast eGFR decline (OR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.33 to 2.60). Participants with diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD) or hypertension were more likely to have an intermediate or fast eGFR decline. All-cause mortality risks (cumulative incidence at age of 70 years) were 32.3% (95% CI, 21.4 to 47.9, slow eGFR decline), 6.7% (95% CI, 3.5 to 12.4, intermediate eGFR decline), 68.8% (95% CI, 44.4 to 87.8, fast eGFR decline) and 9.5% (95% CI, 5.5 to 15.7, increase/stable eGFR).

CONCLUSION

Sex, hypertension, diabetes and CVD were identified as trajectory membership determinants. Having fast eGFR decline was associated with the highest risk of all-cause mortality, highlighting the need for extensive monitoring and prevention of kidney function decline in individuals at risk of having fast eGFR decline.

Risk of chronic kidney disease in patients with acute kidney injury following a major surgery: a US claims database analysis

Background

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication after major surgery. This study assessed the risk of developing or worsening of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and other clinical outcomes in patients experiencing AKI after major surgery.

Methods

This retrospective observational study used Optum's de-identified Clinformatics Data Mart Database to investigate cardiorenal outcomes in adult patients at the first AKI event following major surgery. The primary outcome was CKD stage ≥3; secondary outcomes included myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, heart failure, all-cause hospitalization, end-stage kidney disease, need for dialysis or kidney transplant and composite measures. Follow-up was up to 3 years. Additionally, the effect of intercurrent events on the risk of clinical outcomes was assessed.

Results

Of the included patients (N = 31 252), most were male (61.9%) and White (68.9%), with a median age of 72 years (interquartile range 64-79). The event rates were 25.5 events/100 patient-years (PY) for CKD stage ≥3, 3.1 events/100 PY for end-stage kidney disease, 3.0 events/100 PY for dialysis and 0.1 events/100 PY for kidney transplants. Additionally, there were 6.9 events/100 PY for MI, 8.7 events/100 PY for stroke and 49.8 events/100 PY for all-cause hospitalization during follow-up. Patients with AKI relapses as intercurrent events were more likely to develop CKD stage ≥3 than those with just one AKI event after major surgery.

Conclusion

This analysis demonstrated that patients experiencing AKI following major surgery are at high risk of developing severe CKD or worsening of pre-existing CKD and other cardiorenal clinical outcomes such as MI and stroke.

23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine and the risk of renal progression in older patients with chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND

The 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV23) ensures favorable outcomes and reduces the risk of cardiac events in patients on dialysis. However, the effect of PPSV23 vaccination on renal function remains unknown, particularly in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Therefore, we investigated the association between PPSV23 efficacy and renal progression in older patients (age ≥ 75 years) with CKD.

METHODS

This multicenter, longitudinal cohort study was conducted using data (2008-2016) from the Epidemiology and Risk Factors Surveillance of CKD database. This database was associated with Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database (for period: 2008-2019). A total of 1195 older patients with CKD were recruited from 14 hospitals and communities across Taiwan. Renal progression was defined as a > 25% reduction in estimated glomerular filtration rate from the baseline value.

RESULTS

A significant reduction in the risk of renal progression was observed in patients who had received PPSV23 (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 0.57; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.35-0.91). However, when stratified by CKD stage, this significant reduction was observed in patients with early-stage CKD but not in those with late-stage CKD. Furthermore, a significant reduction in the risk of renal progression was noted in male patients and those with hypertension.

CONCLUSION

Our findings support the protective effect of PPSV23 against renal deterioration in older patients with CKD.

CKD stage-specific utility of two equations for predicting 1-year risk of ESKD

BACKGROUND

The Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) and Kaiser Permanente Northwest (KPNW) models have been proposed to predict progression to ESKD among adults with CKD within 2 and 5 years. We evaluated the utility of these equations to predict the 1-year risk of ESKD in a contemporary, ethnically diverse CKD population.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult members of Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC) with CKD Stages 3-5 from January 2008-September 2015. We ascertained the onset of ESKD through September 2016, and calculated stage-specific estimates of model discrimination and calibration for the KFRE and KPNW equations.

RESULTS

We identified 108,091 eligible adults with CKD (98,757 CKD Stage 3; 8,384 CKD Stage 4; and 950 CKD Stage 5 not yet receiving kidney replacement therapy), with mean age of 75 years, 55% women, and 37% being non-white. The overall 1-year risk of ESKD was 0.8% (95%CI: 0.8-0.9%). The KFRE displayed only moderate discrimination for CKD 3 and 5 (c = 0.76) but excellent discrimination for CKD 4 (c = 0.86), with good calibration for CKD 3-4 patients but suboptimal calibration for CKD 5. Calibration by CKD stage was similar to KFRE for the KPNW equation but displayed worse calibration across CKD stages for 1-year ESKD prediction.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large, ethnically diverse, community-based CKD 3-5 population, both the KFRE and KPNW equation were suboptimal in accurately predicting the 1-year risk of ESKD within CKD stage 3 and 5, but more accurate for stage 4. Our findings suggest these equations can be used in1-year prediction for CKD 4 patients, but also highlight the need for more personalized, stage-specific equations that predicted various short- and long-term adverse outcomes to better inform overall decision-making.

Costs Associated With Progression of Mildly Reduced Kidney Function Among Medicare Advantage Enrollees

Rationale & Objective

The prevalence of early chronic kidney disease (CKD) in older adults has increased in the past 2 decades, yet CKD disease progression, overall, is variable. It is unclear whether health care costs differ by progression trajectory. The purpose of this study was to estimate the trajectories of CKD progression and examine Medicare Advantage (MA) health care costs of each trajectory over a 3-year period in a large cohort of MA enrollees with mildly reduced kidney function.

Study Design

Cohort study.

Setting & Population

421,187 MA enrollees with stage G2 CKD in 2014-2017.

Outcomes

We identified 5 trajectories of kidney function over time.

Model Perspective & Timeframe

Mean total health care costs for each of the trajectories were described in each of the following 3 years from a payer perspective: 1 year before and 2 years after the index date establishing stage G2 CKD (study entry).

Results

The mean estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at study entry was 75.9 mL/min/1.73 m2 and the median (interquartile range) follow-up period was 2.6 (1.6, 3.7) years. The cohort had a mean age of 72.6 years and had predominantly female participants (57.2%), and White (71.2%). We identified the following 5 distinct trajectories of kidney function: a stable eGFR (22.3%); slow eGFR decline with a mean eGFR at study entry of 78.6 (30.2%); slow eGFR decline with an eGFR at study entry of 70.9 (28.4%); steep eGFR decline (16.3%); and accelerated eGFR decline (2.8%). Mean costs of enrollees with accelerated eGFR decline were double the MA enrollees' mean costs in each of the other 4 trajectories in every year ($27,738 vs $13,498 for a stable eGFR 1 year after study entry).

Limitations

Results may not generalized beyond MA and a lack of albumin values.

Conclusions

The small fraction of MA enrollees with accelerated eGFR decline has disproportionately higher costs than other enrollees with mildly reduced kidney function.

Clinical Profiles and Patterns of Kidney Disease Progression in C3 Glomerulopathy

Key Points

Kidney survival in C3 glomerulopathy is significantly higher in patients with a disease chronicity score <4 and proteinuria <3.5 g/d, regardless of baseline eGFR. A faster eGFR decline in C3 glomerulopathy is associated with higher probability of kidney failure. Patients with glomerulopathy with a progressive reduction in proteinuria over time did not reach kidney failure.

Background

C3 glomerulopathy is a rare kidney disease, which makes it difficult to collect large cohorts of patients to better understand its variability. The aims of this study were to describe the clinical profiles and patterns of progression of kidney disease.

Methods

This was a retrospective, observational cohort study. Patients diagnosed with C3 glomerulopathy between 1995 and 2020 were enrolled. Study population was divided into clinical profiles by combining the following predictors: eGFR under/above 30 ml/min per 1.73 m2, proteinuria under/above 3.5 g/d, and histologic chronicity score under/above 4. The change in eGFR and proteinuria over time was evaluated in a subgroup with consecutive measurements of eGFR and proteinuria.

Results

One hundred and fifteen patients with a median age of 30 years (interquartile range 19–50) were included. Patients were divided into eight clinical profiles. Kidney survival was significantly higher in patients with a chronicity score <4 and proteinuria <3.5 g/d, both in those presenting with an eGFR under/above 30 ml/min per 1.73 m2. The median eGFR slope of patients who reached kidney failure was −6.5 ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year (interquartile range −1.6 to −17). Patients who showed a reduction in proteinuria over time did not reach kidney failure. On the basis of the rate of eGFR decline, patients were classified as faster eGFR decline (≥5 ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year), slower (<5 ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year), and those without decline. A faster eGFR decline was associated with higher probability of kidney failure.

Conclusions

Kidney survival is significantly higher in patients with a chronicity score <4 and proteinuria <3.5 g/d regardless of baseline eGFR, and a faster rate of decline in eGFR is associated with higher probability of kidney failure.

Using CUSUM in real time to signal clinically relevant decreases in estimated glomerular filtration rate

Background

The electronic health record (EHR), utilized to apply statistical methodology, assists provider decision-making, including during the care of chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. When estimated glomerular filtration (eGFR) decreases, the rate of that change adds meaning to a patient’s single eGFR and may represent severity of renal injury. Since the cumulative sum chart technique (CUSUM), often used in quality control and surveillance, continuously checks for change in a series of measurements, we selected this statistical tool to detect clinically relevant eGFR decreases and developed CUSUM_GFR.

Methods

In a retrospective analysis we applied an age adjusted CUSUM_GFR, to signal identification of eventual ESKD patients prior to diagnosis date. When the patient signaled by reaching a specified threshold value, days from CUSUM signal date to ESKD diagnosis date (earliness days) were measured, along with the corresponding eGFR measurement at the signal.

Results

Signaling occurred by CUSUM_GFR on average 791 days (se = 12 days) prior to ESKD diagnosis date with sensitivity = 0.897, specificity = 0.877, and accuracy = .878. Mean days prior to ESKD diagnosis were significantly greater in Black patients (905 days) and patients with hypertension (852 days), diabetes (940 days), cardiovascular disease (1027 days), and hypercholesterolemia (971 days). Sensitivity and specificity did not vary by sociodemographic and clinical risk factors.

Conclusions

CUSUM_GFR correctly identified 30.6% of CKD patients destined for ESKD when eGFR was > 60 ml/min/1.73 m² and signaled 12.3% of patients that did not go on to ESKD (though almost all went on to later-stage CKD). If utilized in an EHR, signaling patients could focus providers’ efforts to slow or prevent progression to later stage CKD and ESKD.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12882-022-02910-8.

A systematic review of statistical methodology used to evaluate progression of chronic kidney disease using electronic healthcare records

Background

Electronic healthcare records (EHRs) are a useful resource to study chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression prior to starting dialysis, but pose methodological challenges as kidney function tests are not done on everybody, nor are tests evenly spaced. We sought to review previous research of CKD progression using renal function tests in EHRs, investigating methodology used and investigators’ recognition of data quality issues.

Methods and findings

We searched for studies investigating CKD progression using EHRs in 4 databases (Medline, Embase, Global Health and Web of Science) available as of August 2021. Of 80 articles eligible for review, 59 (74%) were published in the last 5.5 years, mostly using EHRs from the UK, USA and East Asian countries. 33 articles (41%) studied rates of change in eGFR, 23 (29%) studied changes in eGFR from baseline and 15 (19%) studied progression to binary eGFR thresholds. Sample completeness data was available in 44 studies (55%) with analysis populations including less than 75% of the target population in 26 studies (33%). Losses to follow-up went unreported in 62 studies (78%) and 11 studies (14%) defined their cohort based on complete data during follow up. Methods capable of handling data quality issues and other methodological challenges were used in a minority of studies.

Conclusions

Studies based on renal function tests in EHRs may have overstated reliability of findings in the presence of informative missingness. Future renal research requires more explicit statements of data completeness and consideration of i) selection bias and representativeness of sample to the intended target population, ii) ascertainment bias where follow-up depends on risk, and iii) the impact of competing mortality. We recommend that renal progression studies should use statistical methods that take into account variability in renal function, informative censoring and population heterogeneity as appropriate to the study question.

Design and Development of a Digital Counseling Program for Chronic Kidney Disease

Background:

Self-management has shown to improve the quality of life in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Readily accessible self-management tools are essential in promoting adherence to self-care behaviors. In recognizing that digital health facilitates efficient access to self-management programs, we developed a digital counseling program, ODYSSEE Kidney Health, to promote self-care behaviors while supporting health-related quality of life.

Objective:

To present the design and development of ODYSSEE Kidney Health for digital counseling for patients with CKD.

Design:

The study involved an iterative design process based on user-centered design principles to develop the digital counseling program, ODYSSEE Kidney Health.

Setting:

A sample of 10 to 15 participants were purposively sampled from nephrology clinics at the University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.

Methods:

Participants underwent 2 phases in the development process. In each phase, participants were presented with a component of the program, asked to perform goal-oriented tasks, and participate in the “think-aloud” process. Semi-structured interviews followed the first phase to identify feedback about the overall program. Thematic analysis of the interviews identified themes from the usability testing. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize patient demographic data.

Results:

We enrolled 11 participants (n = 7 males, n = 4 females, ages 30-82). The main themes generated anchored on (1) impact on nephrology care, (2) technical features, and (3) CKD content. Overall, participants reported positive satisfaction toward the navigation, layout, and content of the program. They cited the value of the program in their daily CKD care.

Limitations:

Study limitations included using a single center to recruit participants, most of the participants having prior technology use, and using one module as a representative of the entire digital platform.

Conclusion:

The acceptability of a digital counseling program for patients with CKD relies on taking the patients’ perspective using a user-centered design process. It is vital in ensuring adoption and adherence to self-management interventions aimed at sustaining behavioral change.

Revisiting risk prediction tools for death and end-stage renal disease in older patients with advanced chronic kidney disease: a prospective study

BACKGROUND

Risk assessment tools for predicting mortality and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the elderly with CKD have received growing attention. However, integrating risk equations into a multidimensional approach of elderly with CKD stage 3b-4 is lacking.

METHODS

In this prospective observational study, we enrolled CKD stage 3b-4 patients aged ≥ 65 years. Bansal score for predicting mortality risk and Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) for estimating progression to ESRD were applied. Predicted outcome was compared with actual clinical end-points. All patients underwent comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA), which is an interdisciplinary multidimensional process for geriatric evaluation and management.

RESULTS

Participants (N = 184) were divided into two groups, according to Bansal score: Group 1 (low-risk of death, Bansal score < 7, N = 69) and Group 2 (high-risk of death, Bansal score ≥ 7, N = 115). Group 2 displayed a substantially higher cardiovascular disease burden than Group 1 and was significantly more likely to be depressed and at risk of malnutrition, according to CGA. Thirty-seven patients died, and 16 started dialysis. Group 2 displayed significantly higher all-cause mortality. In the univariable Cox regression, Group 2 had a fourfold increase in the risk of all-cause mortality, as compared with Group 1 (HR = 4.29, 95% CI 1.88-10.26, P < 0.001). Multivariable stepwise Cox analysis showed that Bansal score above 7 remained significantly associated with all-cause mortality (HR = 3.96, 95% CI 1.68-9.29, P < 0.001). Group 2 also displayed higher event rates for dialysis initiation. In Group 1, only four patients started dialysis, and three out of them had a high-risk of progression at baseline, according to KFRE.

CONCLUSIONS

Using risk stratification tools and CGA in a population of elderly with advanced CKD, we found that two-thirds of the patients were at high risk of death, malnutrition and depression, with multimorbidity and four times worse probability of survival than those at lower risk of death.

Knowledge Requirements and Unmet Needs of Informal Caregivers of Patients with End-Stage Kidney Disease (ESKD) Receiving Haemodialysis: A Narrative Review

Background: Patients with end-stage kidney disease receiving haemodialysis rely heavily on informal caregivers to support them living at home. Informal caregiving may exact a toll on caregivers’ physical, emotional, and social well-being, impacting negatively on their overall quality of life. The aim of this narrative review is to report knowledge requirements and needs of informal caregivers of patients with end stage kidney disease (ESKD) receiving haemodialysis. Methods: The review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Reporting Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA). Five electronic databases were searched: Web of Science, PsycINFO, Embase, Medline, and CINAHL to identify the experiences and unmet needs of informal caregivers of patients with end stage kidney disease (ESKD) receiving haemodialysis. Results: Eighteen papers were included in the review and incorporated a range of methodological approaches. There are several gaps in the current literature around knowledge and informational needs and skills required by informal caregivers, such as signs and symptoms of potential complications, dietary requirements, and medication management. Although most research studies in this review illustrate the difficulties and challenges faced by informal caregivers, there is a paucity of information as to which support mechanisms would benefit caregivers. Conclusion: Informal caregivers provide invaluable assistance in supporting people with ESKD undergoing haemodialysis. These informal caregivers however experience multiple unmet needs which has a detrimental effect on their health and negatively influences the extent to which they can adequately care for patients. The development of supportive interventions is essential to ensure that informal caregivers have the requisite knowledge and skills to allow them to carry out their vital role.

CKD Progression From the Time of Estimated GFR-Based Waitlist Eligibility and Racial Disparities in Transplant Access

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

eGFR equations that incorporate a term for race assign a higher value to Black individuals compared to non-Black individuals not attributable to sex, age, or serum creatinine. This difference may contribute to racial disparities in kidney transplant access. We sought to 1) compare time from meeting a transplant eligibility threshold of eGFR ≤20 ml/min/1.73M² to kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT) among Black, Hispanic, and White patients, and 2) assess the impact of incorporation of race into eGFR expressions on establishment of waitlist eligibility and time from eligibility to KFRT.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

Using the OptumLabs® Data Warehouse, we assembled a cohort of 40,042 White, 8,519 Black, and 3,569 Hispanic patients having at least one eGFR value between 20 and 60 mL/min/1.73m² within the preceding two years and an incident outpatient eGFR of ≤20 ml/min/1.73m² between 2008-2018, using the CKD-EPI equation that includes a term for race coded as Black or non-Black. We then re-assembled a Black patient cohort based on incident eGFR ≤20 ml/min/1.73m² (n=11,269) estimated using the same CKD-EPI equation for Black patients but coding patients as non-Black.

EXPOSURE

Race/ethnicity.

OUTCOME

Time to KFRT.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Unadjusted and adjusted Fine-Gray models; linear regression to compute eGFR slopes.

RESULTS

By 3 years, the cumulative incidence of KFRT was 20.5% among White patients, 40.9% among Hispanic patients, and 36% among Black patients whose eGFR was estimated using a race term coded as Black and 28.7% among Black patients whose eGFR was estimated using a race term coded as non-Black. In fully adjusted analyses including 11,269 Black patients with an eGFR <20 ml/min/1.73m² based on coding them as non-Black, KFRT risk remained greater among Black (HR 1.28; 95% CI, 1.15-1.43) and Hispanic (HR 1.66; 95% CI 1.18-2.31) than among White patients. Based on slopes of eGFR decline, coding Black patients as non-Black would allow earlier waitlist activation by an estimated median of 0.5 years [IQR 0.27-1.23].

LIMITATIONS

Inability to exclude individuals who would not be kidney transplant candidates if comprehensively evaluated.

CONCLUSIONS

A uniform eGFR threshold provides less opportunity for being placed on the transplant waitlist among Black and Hispanic patients. For many Black patients, estimation of GFR as if their race category were non-Black would allow substantially earlier waitlisting but would not eliminate their shorter time to KFRT and reduced opportunity for preemptive transplantation compared to White patients.

Different kidney function trajectory patterns before dialysis in elderly patients: clinical implications and outcomes

Background. Identifying trajectories of kidney disease progression in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients may help to deliver better care. We aimed to identify and characterize trajectories of renal function decline in CKD patients and to investigate their association with mortality after dialysis.

Methods. This retrospective cohort study included 378 CKD patients who initiated dialysis (aged 65 years and over) between 2009 and 2016. Were considered mixed models using linear quadratic and cubic models to define the trajectories, and we used probabilistic clustering procedures. Patient characteristics and care practices at and before dialysis were examined by multivariable multinomial logistic regression. The association of these trajectories with mortality after dialysis was examined using Cox models.

Results. Four distinct groups of eGFR trajectories decline before dialysis were identified: slower decline (18.3%), gradual decline (18.3%), early rapid decline (41.2%), and rapid decline (22.2%). Patients with rapid eGFR decline were more likely to have diabetes, more cognitive impairment, to have been hospitalized before dialysis, and were less likely to have received pre-dialysis care compared to the patients with a slower decline. They had a higher risk of death within the first and fourth year after dialysis initiation, and after being more than 4 years in dialysis.

Conclusions. There are different patterns of eGFR trajectories before dialysis initiation in the elderly, that may help to identify those who are more likely to experience an accelerated decline in kidney function, with impact on pre ESKD care and in the mortality risk after dialysis.

Prediction models and nomograms for 10-year risk of end-stage renal disease in Chinese type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in primary care

AIMS

To develop and validate 10-year risk prediction models, nomograms and charts for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in primary care, in order to guide individualized treatment.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This was a 10-year population-based observational cohort study. A total of 141 516 Chinese T2DM patients without history of cardiovascular disease or ESRD who were managed in public primary care clinics in 2008 were included and followed up until December 2017. Two-thirds of these patients were randomly selected to develop sex-specific ESRD risk prediction models using Cox regressions. The validity and accuracy of the models were tested on the remaining third of patients using Harrell's C-index. We selected variables based on their clinical and statistical importance to construct the nomograms and charts.

RESULTS

The median follow-up period was 9.75 years. The cumulative incidence of ESRD was 6.0% (men: 6.1%, women: 5.9%). Age, diabetes duration, systolic blood pressure (SBP), SBP variability, diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), HbA1c variability, urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR), and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were significant predictors for both sexes. Smoking and total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol ratio were additional significant predictors for men and women, respectively. The models showed Harrell's C-statistics of 0.889/0.889 (women/men). Age, eGFR, UACR, SBP and HbA1c were selected for both sexes to develop nomograms and charts.

CONCLUSIONS

Using routinely available variables, the 10-year ESRD risk of Chinese T2DM patients in primary care can be predicted with approximately 90% accuracy. We have developed different tools to facilitate routine ESRD risk prediction in primary care, so that individualized care can be provided to prevent or delay ESRD in T2DM patients.

Chronic Kidney Disease Progression and Transition Probabilities in a Large Preventive Cohort in Colombia

BACKGROUND

Variability in chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression is a well-known phenomenon that underlines the importance of characterizing the said outcome in specific populations. Our objectives were to evaluate changes in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over time and determine the frequency of dialysis admission and factors associated with this outcome, to estimate the rate of program's loss-to-follow-up and the probability of transition between CKD stages over time.

METHODS

The study type was an observational analytic retrospective cohort in patients treated in a CKD prevention program in Bogota, Colombia, between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2013, with follow-up until December 31, 2018. Adult participants of 18 years of age or older with diagnosed CKD stages G3 or G4 were enrolled into a prevention program. For each patient, the rate of progression of CKD in ml/min/1.73 m2/year was estimated using the ordinary least-squares method. Dialysis initiation and program's loss-to-follow-up rates were calculated. Heat maps were used to present probabilities of transitioning between various CKD stages over time. Survival model with competing risks was used to evaluate factors associated with dialysis initiation.

RESULTS

A total of 2752 patients met inclusion criteria and contributed with 14133 patient-years of follow-up and 200 dialysis initiation events, which represents a rate of 1.4 events per 100 patient-years (95% CI 1.2 to 1.6). The median change of the eGFR for the entire cohort was -0.47 ml/min/1.73 m2 per year, and in the diabetic population, it was -1.55 ml/min/1.73 m2 per year. The program's loss-to-follow-up rate was 2.6 events per 100 patient-years (95% CI 2.3 to 2.9). Probabilities of CKD stage transitions are presented in heat maps. Female sex, older age, baseline eGFR, and serum albumin were associated with lower risk of dialysis initiation while CKD etiology diabetes, cardiovascular disease history, systolic blood pressure, blood urea nitrogen, and LDL cholesterol were associated with a higher likelihood of dialysis initiation.

CONCLUSIONS

A CKD secondary prevention program's key indicator is reported here, such as dialysis initiation, progression rate, and program drop-out; CKD progression appears to be correlated with diabetic status and timing of referral into the preventive program.

Effects of CYP3A5 Polymorphism on Rapid Progression of Chronic Kidney Disease: A Prospective, Multicentre Study

Personalised medicine is potentially useful to delay the progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD). The aim of this study was to determine the effects of CYP3A5 polymorphism in rapid CKD progression. This multicentre, observational, prospective cohort study was performed among adult CKD patients (≥18 years) with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥30 mL/min/1.73 m2, who had ≥4 outpatient, non-emergency eGFR values during the three-year study period. The blood samples collected were analysed for CYP3A5*3 polymorphism. Rapid CKD progression was defined as eGFR decline of >5 mL/min/1.73 m2/year. Multiple logistic regression was then performed to identify the factors associated with rapid CKD progression. A total of 124 subjects consented to participate. The distribution of the genotypes adhered to the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (X2 = 0.237, p = 0.626). After adjusting for potential confounding factors via multiple logistic regression, the factors associated with rapid CKD progression were CYP3A5*3/*3 polymorphism (adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR] 4.190, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.268, 13.852), adjustments to antihypertensives, young age, dyslipidaemia, smoking and use of traditional/complementary medicine. CKD patients should be monitored closely for possible factors associated with rapid CKD progression to optimise clinical outcomes. The CYP3A5*3/*3 genotype could potentially be screened among CKD patients to offer more individualised management among these patients.

Adverse outcomes associated with rapid linear and non-linear patterns of chronic kidney disease progression

Background

Patients with rapidly declining renal function face the dual threat of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and mortality prior to ESRD. What is less well characterised is whether the pattern of the renal trajectory, linear or non-linear, unmasks subgroups of rapidly progressing patients that face adverse outcomes in a differential manner.

Methods

An individual eGFR slope was applied to all outpatient estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values for each patient in the Salford Kidney Study from 2002 to 2018 who had at least 2 years follow-up, ≥4 eGFR values and baseline eGFR 15 to < 60 ml/min/1.73m². Rapid progression was defined as an annual eGFR slope of ≤ − 3 ml/min/1.73m²/yr and patients were categorised as linear or non-linear progressors based on the nature of their eGFR-time graphs. A Fine-Gray competing risk hazard model was used to determine factors associated with progression to ESRD and with mortality prior to ESRD. Cumulative incidence function curves highlighted differences in outcomes between linear and non-linear patients.

Results

There were 211 rapidly deteriorating patients with linear eGFR trajectories and 61 rapid non-linear patients in the study cohort. Factors associated with ESRD included younger age, male gender, lower baseline eGFR and higher serum phosphate, whilst older age, history of myocardial infarction and anaemia predicted mortality prior to ESRD. Over a median follow-up of 3.7 years, linear progressors reached ESRD sooner whilst those with non-linear progression faced significantly higher rates of mortality prior to ESRD.

Conclusions

Patients with rapid eGFR decline have high rates of adverse outcomes that are differentially expressed in those progressing linearly and non-linearly as a result of differing phenotypic profiles. Consequently, addressing individual risk factor profiles is important to deliver optimal personalised patient care.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12882-021-02282-5.

A Paradigm to Discover Biomarkers Associated With Chronic Kidney Disease Progression

Biomarker discovery in the field of risk prediction in chronic kidney disease (CKD) embraces the prospect of improving our ability to risk stratify future adverse outcomes and thereby guide patient care in a new era of personalised medicine. However, many studies that report biomarkers predictive of CKD progression share a key methodological limitation: failure to characterise patients' renal progression precisely. This weakens any observable association between a biomarker and an outcome poorly defined by a patient's change in renal function over time. In this commentary, we discuss the need for a better approach in this research arena and describe a compelling strategy that has the advantage of offering robust and meaningful biomarker exploration relevant to CKD progression.

Ckj consolidation among Q1 Urology and Nephrology journals

The Clinical Kidney Journal (ckj) impact factor from Clarivate’s Web of Science for 2019 was 3.388. This consolidates ckj among journals in the top 25% (first quartile, Q1) in the Urology and Nephrology field according to the journal impact factor. The manuscripts contributing the most to the impact factor focused on chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology and evaluation, CKD complications and their management, cost-efficiency of renal replacement therapy, pathogenesis of CKD, familial kidney disease and the environment–genetics interface, onconephrology, technology, SGLT2 inhibitors and outcome prediction. We provide here an overview of the hottest and most impactful topics for 2017–19.

Development of a psychosocial intervention to support informal caregivers of people with end-stage kidney disease receiving haemodialysis

Background

Patients with end-stage kidney disease, receiving haemodialysis rely increasingly on informal carers to help manage their debilitating chronic disease. Informal carers may experience a negative impact on their quality of life exacting a toll on their physical, social and emotional well-being. Informal carers of patients with end-stage kidney disease receiving haemodialysis have significant unmet needs which may include physical and psychological issues, financial disadvantage and social isolation. Poor experiences of informal carers may also impact the experience of the patients for whom they care. The needs of this group of informal caregivers have been largely neglected, with little emphasis placed on supportive interventions that might assist and support them in their caring role. The aim of this study is therefore to explore the experiences and unmet needs of informal carers of people with end-stage kidney disease receiving haemodialysis and develop a psychosocial intervention to support them in their caring role.

Methods

This qualitative study will include a systematic review, semi-structured interviews with 30 informal carers and focus groups with renal health care professionals. Perceptions of care provision, caregiving experiences as well as contextual factors impacting the design and delivery of a psychosocial intervention for informal carers of patients with end-stage kidney disease, will be explored and will inform the development of a supportive intervention.

Discussion

The needs of informal carers of patients with end-stage kidney disease have been neglected with little emphasis placed on supportive interventions that might assist and support this group in their care giving role. This is in contrast to other chronic disease groups such as stroke, cancer and dementia. In these conditions well developed supportive interventions have significantly improved outcomes in regard to informal caregivers’ preparedness, competence, positive emotions and psychological well-being in terms of informal care provision. Support interventions could potentially improve the quality of life of those informal carers who provide care to patients with end-stage kidney disease receiving haemodialysis.

Narrative Review of Incremental Hemodialysis

The prescription of hemodialysis (HD) in patients with incident end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) is fundamentally empirical. The abrupt transition from nondialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD) to thrice-weekly in-center HD of much the same dialysis intensity as in those with prevalent ESKD underappreciates the progressive nature of kidney disease whereby the decline in renal function has been gradual and ongoing-including at the time of HD initiation. Adjuvant pharmacologic treatment (i.e., diuretics, acid buffers, potassium binders), coupled with residual kidney function (RKF), can complement an initial HD regimen of lower intensity. Barriers to less intensive HD in incident ESKD include risk of inadequate clearance of uremic toxins due to variable and unexpected loss of RKF, lack of patient adherence to assessments of RKF or adjustment of HD intensity, increased burden for all stakeholders in the dialysis units, and negative financial repercussions. A stepped dialysis regimen with scheduled transition from time-delineated twice-weekly HD to thrice-weekly HD could represent an effective and safe strategy to standardize incremental HD in patients with CKD transitioning to early-stage ESKD. Patients' adherence and survival as well as other clinical outcomes should be rigorously evaluated in clinical trials before large-scale implementation of different incremental schedules of HD. This review discusses potential benefits of and barriers to alternative dialysis regimens in patients with incident ESKD, with emphasis on twice-weekly HD with pharmacologic therapy, and summarizes in-progress clinical trials of incremental HD schedules.

Chronic kidney disease and kidney health care status: the healthy life in Suriname (HeliSur) study

The high cardiovascular risk burden in low- and middle-income countries is expected to lead to an explosive increase in chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, population data on CKD from these countries are scarce. Therefore, we assessed kidney health in Suriname. In the Healthy Life in Suriname (HeliSur) study, a random sample of the adult population, we collected data with standardized questionnaires, physical examination, and blood and urine samples analysed in a central laboratory. Prevalent CKD was graded with KDIGO guidelines. In addition, we assessed national data on prevalent renal replacement therapy (RRT), estimated the future need for RRT, and evaluated national kidney health work force and policies. We include 1117 participants (2.0‰ of the population), 63% women, 40% of African ancestry and 43% of Asian ancestry, with a mean age of 42.2 (SE 0.4) years. Blood pressure is elevated in 72% of the participants, 26% have diabetes or prediabetes, and 78% are obese or overweight. The prevalence of CKD is 5.4%, and around 0.3% have kidney failure, translating to approximately 1500 patients nationally (2690 per million population, pmp), with currently 516 patients (920 pmp) on dialysis. Based on the participants from the random population sample in CKD stage G3 or G4, we estimate that 6750-10,750 pmp may develop kidney failure within the next 10 years. However, specialized kidney health workforce is currently very limited, and specific national or local policies for CKD management are lacking. Since the large majority of the general population has one or more risk factors for CKD including elevated blood pressure, urgent action is needed to strengthen kidney health care and prevent a catastrophic rise in need for RRT in the coming years.

The new Clinical Kidney Journal, 4 years later

The February 2015 issue of ckj started a new era with renewed efforts to be useful to the training and practicing nephrologists and a new focus on Clinical and Translational Nephrology. Four years later, it has become a truly global journal with contributors and readers from all over the world. The increase in quality of the published material has resulted in a nearly exponential growth of citations. Since 2016, ckj is listed in the new Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI) database from Clarivate Analytics and from January 2019 it will be listed in the full Science Citation Index. ckj will therefore receive its first official impact factor based upon 2018 citation to 2016 and 2017 articles. While no official impact factor was awarded for 2017, the estimated impact factors calculated from data available in Clarivate's Web of Science database rose to 2.987 in 2017, which would correspond to an estimated journal impact factor percentile of 72.4% in the Urology and Nephrology field.

Association of Renal Function and Direct-Acting Antiviral Agents for HCV: A Network Meta-Analysis

The effectiveness and safety of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) in hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients with renal insufficiency remain controversial. Therefore, this network meta-analysis aims to assess effectiveness and safety of DAAs in populations with different renal function. The pooled data were obtained from Cochrane Library, EMBASE, PubMed, and Web of Science. Thirteen studies recruited 6884 patients with hepatitis C infection and reported their outcomes in relation to different levels of renal function after treatment with DAAs. The results showed no difference in the virologic responses among patients with different renal function. Regarding safety, whereas in patients without chronic kidney disease (CKD) or with early CKD DAAs were associated with a risk ratio (RR) of 0.14 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.04 to 0.43) for renal disorder, increased risk of renal function deterioration was found in advanced-CKD patients, though this effect may be related to the natural course of advanced CKD. Similarly, patients without CKD or with early CKD showed a lower risk of anemia (RR, 0.34; 95% CI, 0.20 to 0.57) and discontinuation (RR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.56) than patients with advanced CKD. The efficacy of DAAs for HCV treatment was comparable in patients with advanced CKD and in those with early CKD or without CKD. However, the safety of DAAs should be verified in future studies.