Sex-Based Differences in the Epidemiology, Clinical Characteristics, and Outcomes Associated with Worsening Heart Failure Events in a Learning Health System

BACKGROUND

Differences in demographics, risk factors, and clinical characteristics may contribute to variation in men and women in terms of prevalence, clinical setting, and outcomes associated with worsening heart failure (WHF) events.

OBJECTIVES

To describe sex-based differences in the epidemiology, clinical characteristics, and outcomes associated with WHF events across clinical settings.

METHODS

We examined adults diagnosed with HF from 2010-2019 within a large, integrated healthcare delivery system. Electronic health record data were accessed for hospitalizations, emergency department (ED) visits/observation stays, and outpatient encounters. WHF was identified using validated natural language processing algorithms and defined as ≥1 symptom, ≥2 objective findings (including ≥1 sign), and ≥1 change in HF-related therapy. Incidence rates and associated outcomes for WHF were compared across care setting by sex.

RESULTS

We identified 1,122,368 unique clinical encounters with a diagnosis code for HF, with 124,479 meeting WHF criteria. These WHF encounters existed among 102,116 patients, of which 48,543 (47.5%) were women and 53,573 (52.5%) were men. Women experiencing WHF were older and more likely to have HF with preserved ejection fraction compared to men. The clinical settings of WHF were similar among women and men: hospitalizations (36.8% vs. 37.7%), ED visits or observation stays (11.8% vs. 13.4%), and outpatient encounters (4.4% vs. 4.9%). Women had lower odds of 30-day mortality following an index hospitalization (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.88, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83-0.93) or ED visit/observation stay (aOR 0.86, 95% 0.75-0.98) for WHF.

CONCLUSION

Women and men contribute similarly to WHF events across diverse clinical settings despite marked differences in age and left ventricular ejection fraction.

Predicting stroke risk after sepsis hospitalization with new-onset atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

New-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) during sepsis is common, but models designed to stratify stroke risk excluded patients with secondary AF. We assessed the predictive validity of CHA2DS2VASc scores among patients with new-onset AF during sepsis and developed a novel stroke prediction model incorporating presepsis and intrasepsis characteristics.

METHODS

We included patients ≥40 years old who survived hospitalizations with sepsis and new-onset AF across 21 Kaiser Permanente Northern California hospitals from January 1, 2011 to September 30, 2017. We calculated the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) for CHA2DS2VASc scores to predict stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) within 1 year after a hospitalization with new-onset AF during sepsis using Fine-Gray models with death as competing risk. We similarly derived and validated a novel model using presepsis and intrasepsis characteristics associated with 1-year stroke/TIA risk.

RESULTS

Among 82,748 adults hospitalized with sepsis, 3992 with new-onset AF (median age: 80 years, median CHA2DS2VASc of 4) survived to discharge, among whom 70 (2.1%) experienced stroke or TIA outcome and 1393 (41.0%) died within 1 year of sepsis. The CHA2DS2VASc score was not predictive of stroke risk after sepsis (AUC: 0.50, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.48-0.52). A newly derived model among 2555 (64%) patients in the derivation set and 1437 (36%) in the validation set included 13 variables and produced an AUC of 0.61 (0.49-0.73) in derivation and 0.54 (0.43-0.65) in validation.

CONCLUSION

Current models do not accurately stratify risk of stroke following new-onset AF secondary to sepsis. New tools are required to guide anticoagulation decisions following new-onset AF in sepsis.

Initial antiretroviral therapy regimen and risk of heart failure

OBJECTIVES

Heart failure risk is elevated in people with HIV (PWH). We investigated whether initial antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens influenced heart failure risk.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

METHODS

PWH who initiated an ART regimen between 2000 and 2016 were identified from three integrated healthcare systems. We evaluated heart failure risk by protease inhibitor, nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI), and integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-based ART, and comparing two common nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors: tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (tenofovir) and abacavir. Follow-up for each pairwise comparison varied (i.e. 7 years for protease inhibitor vs. NNRTI; 5 years for tenofovir vs. abacavir; 2 years for INSTIs vs. PIs or NNRTIs). Hazard ratios were from working logistic marginal structural models, fitted with inverse probability weighting to adjust for demographics, and traditional cardiovascular risk factors.

RESULTS

Thirteen thousand six hundred and thirty-four PWH were included (88% men, median 40 years of age; 34% non-Hispanic white, 24% non-Hispanic black, and 24% Hispanic). The hazard ratio (95% CI) were: 2.5 (1.5-4.3) for protease inhibitor vs. NNRTI-based ART (reference); 0.5 (0.2-1.8) for protease inhibitor vs. INSTI-based ART (reference); 0.1 (0.1-0.8) for NNRTI vs. INSTI-based ART (reference); and 1.7 (0.5-5.7) for tenofovir vs. abacavir (reference). In more complex models of cumulative incidence that accounted for possible nonproportional hazards over time, the only remaining finding was evidence of a higher risk of heart failure for protease inhibitor compared with NNRTI-based regimens (1.8 vs. 0.8%; P  = 0.002).

CONCLUSION

PWH initiating protease inhibitors may be at higher risk of heart failure compared with those initiating NNRTIs. Future studies with longer follow-up with INSTI-based and other specific ART are warranted.

Development and Validation of the American Heart Association's PREVENT Equations

BACKGROUND

Multivariable equations are recommended by primary prevention guidelines to assess absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, current equations have several limitations. Therefore, we developed and validated the American Heart Association Predicting Risk of CVD EVENTs (PREVENT) equations among US adults 30 to 79 years of age without known CVD.

METHODS

The derivation sample included individual-level participant data from 25 data sets (N=3 281 919) between 1992 and 2017. The primary outcome was CVD (atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure). Predictors included traditional risk factors (smoking status, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, antihypertensive or statin use, and diabetes) and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Models were sex-specific, race-free, developed on the age scale, and adjusted for competing risk of non-CVD death. Analyses were conducted in each data set and meta-analyzed. Discrimination was assessed using the Harrell C-statistic. Calibration was calculated as the slope of the observed versus predicted risk by decile. Additional equations to predict each CVD subtype (atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure) and include optional predictors (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio and hemoglobin A1c), and social deprivation index were also developed. External validation was performed in 3 330 085 participants from 21 additional data sets.

RESULTS

Among 6 612 004 adults included, mean±SD age was 53±12 years, and 56% were women. Over a mean±SD follow-up of 4.8±3.1 years, there were 211 515 incident total CVD events. The median C-statistics in external validation for CVD were 0.794 (interquartile interval, 0.763-0.809) in female and 0.757 (0.727-0.778) in male participants. The calibration slopes were 1.03 (interquartile interval, 0.81-1.16) and 0.94 (0.81-1.13) among female and male participants, respectively. Similar estimates for discrimination and calibration were observed for atherosclerotic CVD- and heart failure-specific models. The improvement in discrimination was small but statistically significant when urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, hemoglobin A1c, and social deprivation index were added together to the base model to total CVD (ΔC-statistic [interquartile interval] 0.004 [0.004-0.005] and 0.005 [0.004-0.007] among female and male participants, respectively). Calibration improved significantly when the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio was added to the base model among those with marked albuminuria (>300 mg/g; 1.05 [0.84-1.20] versus 1.39 [1.14-1.65]; P=0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

PREVENT equations accurately and precisely predicted risk for incident CVD and CVD subtypes in a large, diverse, and contemporary sample of US adults by using routinely available clinical variables.

Identification of recurrent atrial fibrillation using natural language processing applied to electronic health records

AIMS

This study aimed to develop and apply natural language processing (NLP) algorithms to identify recurrent atrial fibrillation (AF) episodes following rhythm control therapy initiation using electronic health records (EHRs).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We included adults with new-onset AF who initiated rhythm control therapies (ablation, cardioversion, or antiarrhythmic medication) within two US integrated healthcare delivery systems. A code-based algorithm identified potential AF recurrence using diagnosis and procedure codes. An automated NLP algorithm was developed and validated to capture AF recurrence from electrocardiograms, cardiac monitor reports, and clinical notes. Compared with the reference standard cases confirmed by physicians' adjudication, the F-scores, sensitivity, and specificity were all above 0.90 for the NLP algorithms at both sites. We applied the NLP and code-based algorithms to patients with incident AF (n = 22 970) during the 12 months after initiating rhythm control therapy. Applying the NLP algorithms, the percentages of patients with AF recurrence for sites 1 and 2 were 60.7% and 69.9% (ablation), 64.5% and 73.7% (cardioversion), and 49.6% and 55.5% (antiarrhythmic medication), respectively. In comparison, the percentages of patients with code-identified AF recurrence for sites 1 and 2 were 20.2% and 23.7% for ablation, 25.6% and 28.4% for cardioversion, and 20.0% and 27.5% for antiarrhythmic medication, respectively.

CONCLUSION

When compared with a code-based approach alone, this study's high-performing automated NLP method identified significantly more patients with recurrent AF. The NLP algorithms could enable efficient evaluation of treatment effectiveness of AF therapies in large populations and help develop tailored interventions.

Physician assessment of aortic stenosis severity, quantitative parameters, and long-term outcomes: Results from the KP-VALVE project

BACKGROUND

Contemporary outcomes for aortic stenosis (AS) and the association between physician-assessed AS severity and quantitative parameters is poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate AS natural history, compare outcomes for physicians' AS assessment vs. quantitative parameters, and identify AS parameters with the most explanatory power.

METHODS

We ascertained physician-assessed AS severity, echocardiographic parameters, and clinical data for 546,769 patients from 2008-2018, examined multivariable associations of physician-assessed AS severity and number of quantitative severe AS parameters with death, cardiovascular hospitalization, and aortic valve replacement, and estimated the relative contribution of different quantitative AS parameters on outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 49,604 AS patients (mean [SD] age 77 [11] years), 17.6% had moderate, 3.6% moderate-severe, and 9.4% severe AS. During median 3.7 [IQR 1.7-6.8] years, physician-assessed AS severity strongly correlated with outcomes, with moderate AS patients tracking closest to mild AS, and moderate-to-severe AS patients more comparable to severe AS. Although the number of quantitative severe AS parameters strongly predicted outcomes (adjusted HR [95% CI] for death 1.40 [1.34-1.46], 1.70 [1.56-1.85], and 1.78 [1.63-1.94] for 1, 2, and 3 parameters, respectively), aortic valve area <1.0 cm2 was the most frequent severe AS parameter, explained the largest relative contribution (67%), and was common in patients classified as moderate (21%) or moderate-severe (56%) AS.

CONCLUSIONS

Physician-assessed AS severity predicts outcomes, with cumulative effects for each severe AS parameter. Moderate AS includes a wide spectrum of patients, with discordant AVA <1.0 cm2 being both common and predictive. Better identification of non-classical severe AS phenotypes may improve outcomes.

The ASSESS-AKI Study found urinary epidermal growth factor is associated with reduced risk of major adverse kidney events

Biomarkers of tubular function such as epidermal growth factor (EGF) may improve prognostication of participants at highest risk for chronic kidney disease (CKD) after hospitalization. To examine this, we measured urinary EGF (uEGF) from samples collected in the Assessment, Serial Evaluation, and Subsequent Sequelae of Acute Kidney Injury (ASSESS-AKI) Study, a multi-center, prospective, observational cohort of hospitalized participants with and without AKI. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to investigate the association of uEGF/Cr at hospitalization, three months post-discharge, and the change between these time points with major adverse kidney events (MAKE): CKD incidence, progression, or development of kidney failure. Clinical findings were paired with mechanistic studies comparing relative Egf expression in mouse models of kidney atrophy or repair after ischemia-reperfusion injury. MAKE was observed in 20% of 1,509 participants over 4.3 years of follow-up. Each 2-fold higher level of uEGF/Cr at three months was associated with decreased risk of MAKE (adjusted hazards ratio 0.46, 95% confidence interval: 0.39-0.55). Participants with the highest increase in uEGF/Cr from hospitalization to three-month follow-up had a lower risk of MAKE (adjusted hazards ratio 0.52; 95% confidence interval: 0.36-0.74) compared to those with the least change in uEGF/Cr. A model using uEGF/Cr at three months combined with clinical variables yielded moderate discrimination for MAKE (area under the curve 0.73; 95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.77) and strong discrimination for kidney failure at four years (area under the curve 0.96; 95% confidence interval: 0.92-1.00). Accelerated restoration of Egf expression in mice was seen in the model of adaptive repair after injury, compared to a model of progressive atrophy. Thus, urinary EGF/Cr may be a biomarker of distal tubular health, with higher concentrations and increased uEGF/Cr post-discharge independently associated with reduced risk of MAKE in hospitalized patients.

Association Between Participation in a Heart Failure Telemonitoring Program and Health Care Utilization and Death Within an Integrated Health Care Delivery System

BACKGROUND

The clinical usefulness of remote telemonitoring to reduce postdischarge health care use and death in adults with heart failure (HF) remains controversial.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Within a large integrated health care delivery system, we matched patients enrolled in a postdischarge telemonitoring intervention from 2015 to 2019 to patients not receiving telemonitoring at up to a 1:4 ratio on age, sex, and calipers of a propensity score. Primary outcomes were readmissions for worsening HF and all-cause death within 30, 90, and 365 days of the index discharge; secondary outcomes were all-cause readmissions and any outpatient diuretic dose adjustments. We matched 726 patients receiving telemonitoring to 1985 controls not receiving telemonitoring, with a mean age of 75 ± 11 years and 45% female. Patients receiving telemonitoring did not have a significant reduction in worsening HF hospitalizations (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] 0.95, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.68-1.33), all-cause death (adjusted hazard ratio 0.60, 95% CI 0.33-1.08), or all-cause hospitalization (aRR 0.82, 95% CI 0.65-1.05) at 30 days, but did have an increase in outpatient diuretic dose adjustments (aRR 1.84, 95% CI 1.44-2.36). All associations were similar at 90 and 365 days postdischarge.

CONCLUSIONS

A postdischarge HF telemonitoring intervention was associated with more diuretic dose adjustments but was not significantly associated with HF-related morbidity and mortality.

Gaps in guideline-recommended anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation and elevated thromboembolic risk within an integrated healthcare delivery system

BACKGROUND

Atrial Fibrillation (AF) is the leading cause of stroke, which can be reduced by 70% with appropriate oral anticoagulation (OAC) therapy. Nationally, appropriate anticoagulation rates for patients with AF with elevated thromboembolic risk are as low as 50% even across the highest stroke risk cohorts. This study aims to evaluate the variability of appropriate anticoagulation rates among patients by sex, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status within the Kaiser Permanente Mid-Atlantic States (KPMAS).

METHODS

This retrospective study investigated 9513 patients in KPMAS's AF registry with CHADS2 score ≥ 2 over a 6-month period in 2021.

RESULTS

Appropriately anticoagulated patients had higher rates of diabetes, prior stroke, and congestive heart failure than patients who were not appropriately anticoagulated. There were no significant differences in anticoagulation rates between males and females (71.8% vs. 71.6%%, [OR] 1.01; 95% CI, 0.93-1.11; P = .76) nor by SES-SVI quartiles. There was a statistically significant difference between Black and White patients (70.8% vs. 73.1%, P = .03) and Asian and White patients (68.3% vs. 71.6%, P = .005). After adjusting for CHADS2, this difference persisted for Black and White participants with CHADS2 scores of ≤3 (62.6% vs. 70.6%, P < .001) and for Asian and White participants with CHADS2 scores > 5 (68.0% vs. 79.3%, P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Black and Asian patients may have differing rates of appropriate anticoagulation when compared with White patients. Characterizing such disparities is the first step towards addressing treatment gaps in AF.

CKD stage-specific utility of two equations for predicting 1-year risk of ESKD

BACKGROUND

The Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) and Kaiser Permanente Northwest (KPNW) models have been proposed to predict progression to ESKD among adults with CKD within 2 and 5 years. We evaluated the utility of these equations to predict the 1-year risk of ESKD in a contemporary, ethnically diverse CKD population.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult members of Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC) with CKD Stages 3-5 from January 2008-September 2015. We ascertained the onset of ESKD through September 2016, and calculated stage-specific estimates of model discrimination and calibration for the KFRE and KPNW equations.

RESULTS

We identified 108,091 eligible adults with CKD (98,757 CKD Stage 3; 8,384 CKD Stage 4; and 950 CKD Stage 5 not yet receiving kidney replacement therapy), with mean age of 75 years, 55% women, and 37% being non-white. The overall 1-year risk of ESKD was 0.8% (95%CI: 0.8-0.9%). The KFRE displayed only moderate discrimination for CKD 3 and 5 (c = 0.76) but excellent discrimination for CKD 4 (c = 0.86), with good calibration for CKD 3-4 patients but suboptimal calibration for CKD 5. Calibration by CKD stage was similar to KFRE for the KPNW equation but displayed worse calibration across CKD stages for 1-year ESKD prediction.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large, ethnically diverse, community-based CKD 3-5 population, both the KFRE and KPNW equation were suboptimal in accurately predicting the 1-year risk of ESKD within CKD stage 3 and 5, but more accurate for stage 4. Our findings suggest these equations can be used in1-year prediction for CKD 4 patients, but also highlight the need for more personalized, stage-specific equations that predicted various short- and long-term adverse outcomes to better inform overall decision-making.

Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 and Risk of Heart Failure Subtype: The CRIC (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort) Study

Rationale & Objective

Heart failure (HF) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality among individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD). A large body of evidence from preclinical and clinical studies implicates excess levels of fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) in HF pathogenesis in CKD. It remains unclear whether the relationship between elevated FGF23 levels and HF risk among individuals with CKD varies by HF subtype.

Study Design

Prospective cohort study.

Settings & Participants

A total of 3,502 participants were selected in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort study.

Exposure

Baseline plasma FGF23.

Outcomes

Incident HF by subtype and total rate of HF hospitalization. HF was categorized as HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF, ejection fraction [EF] ≥ 50%), HF with reduced EF (HFrEF, EF < 50%) and HF with unknown EF (HFuEF).

Analytical Approach

Multivariable-adjusted cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate associations between FGF23 and incident hospitalizations for HF by subtype. The Lunn-McNeil method was used to compare hazard ratios across HF subtypes. Poisson regression models were used to evaluate the total rate of HF.

Results

During a median follow-up time of 10.8 years, 295 HFpEF, 242 HFrEF, and 156 HFuEF hospitalizations occurred. In multivariable-adjusted cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models, FGF23 was significantly associated with the incidence of HFpEF (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.21-1.64), HFrEF (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.05-1.53), and HFuEF (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.13-1.73) per 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in the natural log of FGF23. The Lunn-McNeil method determined that the risk association was consistent across all subtypes. The rate ratio of total HF events increased with FGF23 quartile. In multivariable-adjusted models, compared with quartile 1, FGF23 quartile 4 had a rate ratio of 1.81 (95% CI, 1.28-2.57) for total HF events.

Limitations

Self-report of HF hospitalizations and possible lack of an echocardiogram at time of hospitalization.

Conclusions

In this large multicenter prospective cohort study, elevated FGF23 levels were associated with increased risks for all HF subtypes.

Plain-Language Summary

Heart failure (HF) is a prominent cause of morbidity and mortality in individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Identifying potential pathways in the development of HF is essential in developing therapies to prevent and treat HF. In a large cohort of individuals with CKD, the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (N = 3,502), baseline fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF23), a hormone that regulates phosphorous, was evaluated in relation to the development of incident and recurrent HF with reduced, preserved, and unknown ejection fraction. In this large multicenter prospective cohort study, elevated FGF23 levels were associated with increased risk of all HF subtypes. These findings demonstrate the need for further research into FGF23 as a target in preventing the development of HF in individuals with CKD.

Proteomics of CKD progression in the chronic renal insufficiency cohort

Progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) portends myriad complications, including kidney failure. In this study, we analyze associations of 4638 plasma proteins among 3235 participants of the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study with the primary outcome of 50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate or kidney failure over 10 years. We validate key findings in the Atherosclerosis Risk in the Communities study. We identify 100 circulating proteins that are associated with the primary outcome after multivariable adjustment, using a Bonferroni statistical threshold of significance. Individual protein associations and biological pathway analyses highlight the roles of bone morphogenetic proteins, ephrin signaling, and prothrombin activation. A 65-protein risk model for the primary outcome has excellent discrimination (C-statistic[95%CI] 0.862 [0.835, 0.889]), and 14/65 proteins are druggable targets. Potentially causal associations for five proteins, to our knowledge not previously reported, are supported by Mendelian randomization: EGFL9, LRP-11, MXRA7, IL-1 sRII and ILT-2. Modifiable protein risk markers can guide therapeutic drug development aimed at slowing CKD progression.

Developing Clinical Risk Prediction Models for Worsening Heart Failure Events and Death by Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction

Background There is a need to develop electronic health record-based predictive models for worsening heart failure (WHF) events across clinical settings and across the spectrum of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Methods and Results We studied adults with heart failure (HF) from 2011 to 2019 within an integrated health care delivery system. WHF encounters were ascertained using natural language processing and structured data. We conducted boosted decision tree ensemble models to predict 1-year hospitalizations, emergency department visits/observation stays, and outpatient encounters for WHF and all-cause death within each LVEF category: HF with reduced ejection fraction (EF) (LVEF <40%), HF with mildly reduced EF (LVEF 40%-49%), and HF with preserved EF (LVEF ≥50%). Model discrimination was evaluated using area under the curve and calibration using mean squared error. We identified 338 426 adults with HF: 61 045 (18.0%) had HF with reduced EF, 49 618 (14.7%) had HF with mildly reduced EF, and 227 763 (67.3%) had HF with preserved EF. The 1-year risks of any WHF event and death were, respectively, 22.3% and 13.0% for HF with reduced EF, 17.0% and 10.1% for HF with mildly reduced EF, and 16.3% and 10.3% for HF with preserved EF. The WHF model displayed an area under the curve of 0.76 and mean squared error of 0.13, whereas the model for death displayed an area under the curve of 0.83 and mean squared error of 0.076. Performance and predictors were similar across WHF encounter types and LVEF categories. Conclusions We developed risk prediction models for 1-year WHF events and death across the LVEF spectrum using structured and unstructured electronic health record data and observed no substantial differences in model performance or predictors except for death, despite differences in underlying HF cause.

Integrated Analysis of Blood and Urine Biomarkers to Identify Acute Kidney Injury Subphenotypes and Associations With Long-term Outcomes

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a heterogeneous clinical syndrome with varying causes, pathophysiology, and outcomes. We incorporated plasma and urine biomarker measurements to identify AKI subgroups (subphenotypes) more tightly linked to underlying pathophysiology and long-term clinical outcomes.

STUDY DESIGN

Multicenter cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

769 hospitalized adults with AKI matched with 769 without AKI, enrolled from December 2009 to February 2015 in the ASSESS-AKI Study.

PREDICTORS

29 clinical, plasma, and urinary biomarker parameters used to identify AKI subphenotypes.

OUTCOME

Composite of major adverse kidney events (MAKE) with a median follow-up period of 4.7 years.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Latent class analysis (LCA) and k-means clustering were applied to 29 clinical, plasma, and urinary biomarker parameters. Associations between AKI subphenotypes and MAKE were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

Among 769 AKI patients both LCA and k-means identified 2 distinct AKI subphenotypes (classes 1 and 2). The long-term risk for MAKE was higher with class 2 (adjusted HR, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.08-1.84]; P=0.01) compared with class 1, adjusting for demographics, hospital level factors, and KDIGO stage of AKI. The higher risk of MAKE among class 2 was explained by a higher risk of long-term chronic kidney disease progression and dialysis. The top variables that were different between classes 1 and 2 included plasma and urinary biomarkers of inflammation and epithelial cell injury; serum creatinine ranked 20th out of the 29 variables for differentiating classes.

LIMITATIONS

A replication cohort with simultaneously collected blood and urine sampling in hospitalized adults with AKI and long-term outcomes was unavailable.

CONCLUSIONS

We identify 2 molecularly distinct AKI subphenotypes with differing risk of long-term outcomes, independent of the current criteria to risk stratify AKI. Future identification of AKI subphenotypes may facilitate linking therapies to underlying pathophysiology to prevent long-term sequalae after AKI.

PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY

Acute kidney injury (AKI) occurs commonly in hospitalized patients and is associated with high morbidity and mortality. The AKI definition lumps many different types of AKI together, but subgroups of AKI may be more tightly linked to the underlying biology and clinical outcomes. We used 29 different clinical, blood, and urinary biomarkers and applied 2 different statistical algorithms to identify AKI subtypes and their association with long-term outcomes. Both clustering algorithms identified 2 AKI subtypes with different risk of chronic kidney disease, independent of the serum creatinine concentrations (the current gold standard to determine severity of AKI). Identification of AKI subtypes may facilitate linking therapies to underlying biology to prevent long-term consequences after AKI.

Temporal trends in the prevalence and severity of aortic stenosis within a contemporary and diverse community-based cohort

BACKGROUND

Data on the epidemiology of aortic stenosis (AS) are primarily derived from single center experiences and administrative claims data that do not delineate by degree of disease severity.

METHODS

An observational cohort study of adults with echocardiographic AS was conducted January 1st, 2013-December 31st, 2019 at an integrated health system. The presence/grade of AS was based on physician interpretation of echocardiograms.

RESULTS

A total of 66,992 echocardiogram reports for 37,228 individuals were identified. The mean ± standard deviation (SD) age was 77.5 ± 10.5, 50.5% (N = 18,816) were women, and 67.2% (N = 25,016) were non-Hispanic whites. The age-standardized AS prevalence increased from 589 (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 580-598) to 754 (95% CI 744-764) cases per 100,000 during the study period. The age-standardized AS prevalences were similar in magnitude among non-Hispanic whites (820, 95% CI 806-834), non-Hispanic blacks (728, 95% CI 687-769), and Hispanics (789, 95% CI 759-819) and substantially lower for Asian/Pacific Islanders (511, 95% CI 489-533). Finally, the distribution of AS by degree of severity remained relatively unchanged over time.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The population prevalence of AS has grown considerably over a short timeframe although the distribution of AS severity has remained stable.

Early Pregnancy Systolic Blood Pressure Patterns Predict Early- and Later-Onset Preeclampsia and Gestational Hypertension Among Ostensibly Low-to-Moderate Risk Groups

Background Clinical risk factors, a single blood pressure (BP) measurement, current biomarkers, and biophysical parameters can effectively identify risk of early-onset preeclampsia but have limited ability to predict later-onset preeclampsia and gestational hypertension. Clinical BP patterns hold promise to improve early risk stratification for hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. Methods and Results After excluding preexisting hypertension, heart, kidney, or liver disease, or prior preeclampsia, the retrospective cohort (n=249 892) all had systolic BP <140 mm Hg and diastolic BP <90 mm Hg or a single BP elevation ≤20 weeks' gestation, prenatal care at <14 weeks' gestation, and a still or live birth delivery at Kaiser Permanente Northern California hospitals (2009-2019). The sample was randomly split into development (N=174 925; 70%) and validation (n=74 967; 30%) data sets. Predictive performance of multinomial logistic regression models for early-onset (<34 weeks) preeclampsia, later-onset (≥34 weeks) preeclampsia, and gestational hypertension was evaluated in the validation data set. There were 1008 (0.4%), 10 766 (4.3%), and 11 514 (4.6%) patients with early-onset preeclampsia, later-onset preeclampsia, and gestation hypertension, respectively. Models with 6 systolic BP trajectory groups (0-20 weeks' gestation) plus standard clinical risk factors performed substantially better than risk factors alone to predict early- and later-onset preeclampsia and gestational hypertension, with C-statistics (95% CIs) of 0.747 (0.720-0.775), 0.730 (0.722-0.739), and 0.768 (0.761-0.776) versus 0.688 (0.659-0.717), 0.695 (0.686-0.704) and 0.692 (0.683-0.701), respectively, with excellent calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P=0.99, 0.99, and 0.74, respectively). Conclusions Early pregnancy BP patterns up to 20 weeks' gestation plus clinical, social, and behavioral factors more accurately discriminate hypertensive disorders of pregnancy risk among low-to-moderate risk pregnancies. Early pregnancy BP trajectories improve risk stratification to reveal higher-risk individuals hidden within ostensibly low-to-moderate risk groups and lower-risk individuals considered at higher risk by US Preventive Services Task Force criteria.

Clinical Outcomes of Direct Oral Anticoagulants vs Warfarin for Extended Treatment of Venous Thromboembolism

Importance

Extending the duration of oral anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE) beyond the initial 3 to 6 months of treatment is often recommended, but it is not clear whether clinical outcomes differ when using direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) or warfarin.

Objective

To compare rates of recurrent VTE, hospitalizations for hemorrhage, and all-cause death among adults prescribed DOACs or warfarin whose anticoagulant treatment was extended beyond 6 months after acute VTE.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study was conducted in 2 integrated health care delivery systems in California with adults aged 18 years or older who received a diagnosis of incident VTE between 2010 and 2018 and completed at least 6 months of oral anticoagulant treatment with DOACs or warfarin. Patients were followed from the end of the initial 6-month treatment period until discontinuation of anticoagulation, occurrence of an outcome event, health plan disenrollment, or end of the study follow-up period (December 31, 2019). Data were obtained from the Kaiser Permanente Virtual Data Warehouse and electronic health records. Data analysis was conducted from March 2022 to January 2023.

Exposure

Dispensed prescriptions of DOACs or warfarin after a 6-month initial treatment for VTE.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcomes were rates per 100 person-years of recurrent VTE, hospitalizations for hemorrhage, and all-cause death. Comparison of DOAC and warfarin outcomes were performed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression.

Results

A total of 18 495 patients (5477 [29.6%] aged ≥75 years; 8973 women [48.5%]) with VTE who were treated with at least 6 months of anticoagulation were identified, of whom 2134 (11.5%) were receiving DOAC therapy and 16 361 (88.5%) were receiving warfarin therapy. Unadjusted event rates were lower for patients receiving DOAC therapy than warfarin therapy for recurrent VTE (event rate per 100 person-years, 2.92 [95% CI, 2.29-3.54] vs 4.14 [95% CI, 3.90-4.38]), hospitalizations for hemorrhage (event rate per 100 person-years, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.66-1.39] vs 1.81 [95% CI, 1.66-1.97]), and all-cause death (event rate per 100 person-years, 3.79 [95% CI, 3.09-4.49] vs 5.40 [95% CI, 5.13-5.66]). After multivariable adjustment, DOAC treatment was associated with a lower risk of recurrent VTE (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.66; 95% CI, 0.52-0.82). For patients prescribed DOAC treatment, the risks of hospitalization for hemorrhage (aHR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.54-1.17) and all-cause death (aHR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.78-1.19) were not significantly different than those for patients prescribed warfarin treatment.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of patients with VTE who continued warfarin or DOAC anticoagulation beyond 6 months, DOAC treatment was associated with a lower risk of recurrent VTE, supporting the use of DOACs for the extended treatment of VTE in terms of clinical outcomes.

Cardiac Structure and Function and Subsequent Kidney Disease Progression in Adults With CKD: The Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Heart-kidney crosstalk is recognized as the cardiorenal syndrome. We examined the association of cardiac function and structure with the risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT) in a chronic kidney disease (CKD) population.

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective observational cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

3,027 participants from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study.

EXPOSURE

Five preselected variables that assess different aspects of cardiac structure and function: left ventricular mass index (LVMI), LV volume, left atrial (LA) area, peak tricuspid regurgitation (TR) velocity, and left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) as assessed by echocardiography.

OUTCOME

Incident KFRT (primary outcome), and annual estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) slope (secondary outcome).

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Multivariable Cox models and mixed-effects models.

RESULTS

The mean age of the participants was 59±11 SD years, 54% were men, and mean eGFR was 43±17mL/min/1.73m2. Between 2003 and 2018 (median follow-up, 9.9 years), 883 participants developed KFRT. Higher LVMI, LV volume, LA area, peak TR velocity, and lower EF were each statistically significantly associated with an increased risk of KFRT, with corresponding HRs for the highest versus lowest quartiles (lowest vs highest for EF) of 1.70 (95% CI, 1.27-2.26), 1.50 (95% CI, 1.19-1.90), 1.43 (95% CI, 1.11-1.84), 1.45 (95% CI, 1.06-1.96), and 1.26 (95% CI, 1.03-1.56), respectively. For the secondary outcome, participants in the highest versus lowest quartiles (lowest vs highest for EF) had a statistically significantly faster eGFR decline, except for LA area (ΔeGFR slope per year, -0.57 [95% CI, -0.68 to-0.46] mL/min/1.73m2 for LVMI, -0.25 [95% CI, -0.35 to-0.15] mL/min/1.73m2 for LV volume, -0.01 [95% CI, -0.12 to-0.01] mL/min/1.73m2 for LA area, -0.42 [95% CI, -0.56 to-0.28] mL/min/1.73m2 for peak TR velocity, and -0.11 [95% CI, -0.20 to-0.01] mL/min/1.73m2 for EF, respectively).

LIMITATIONS

The possibility of residual confounding.

CONCLUSIONS

Multiple aspects of cardiac structure and function were statistically significantly associated with the risk of KFRT. These findings suggest that cardiac abnormalities and incidence of KFRT are potentially on the same causal pathway related to the interaction between hypertension, heart failure, and coronary artery diseases.

PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY

Heart disease and kidney disease are known to interact with each other. In this study, we examined whether cardiac abnormalities, as assessed by echocardiography, were linked to the subsequent progression of kidney disease among people living with chronic kidney disease (CKD). We found that people with abnormalities in heart structure and function had a greater risk of progression to advanced CKD that required kidney replacement therapy and had a faster rate of decline in kidney function. Our study indicates the potential role of abnormal heart structure and function in the progression of kidney disease among people living with CKD.

Genome-wide Association Study for AKI

Key Points

Two genetic variants in the DISP1-TLR5 gene locus were associated with risk of AKI. DISP1 and TLR5 were differentially regulated in kidney biopsy tissue from patients with AKI compared with no AKI.

Background

Although common genetic risks for CKD are well established, genetic factors influencing risk for AKI in hospitalized patients are poorly understood.

Methods

We conducted a genome-wide association study in 1369 participants in the Assessment, Serial Evaluation, and Subsequent Sequelae of AKI Study; a multiethnic population of hospitalized participants with and without AKI matched on demographics, comorbidities, and kidney function before hospitalization. We then completed functional annotation of top-performing variants for AKI using single-cell RNA sequencing data from kidney biopsies in 12 patients with AKI and 18 healthy living donors from the Kidney Precision Medicine Project.

Results

No genome-wide significant associations with AKI risk were found in Assessment, Serial Evaluation, and Subsequent Sequelae of AKI (P < 5×10 −8 ). The top two variants with the strongest association with AKI mapped to the dispatched resistance-nodulation-division (RND) transporter family member 1 (DISP1) gene and toll-like receptor 5 (TLR5) gene locus, rs17538288 (odds ratio, 1.55; 95% confidence interval, 1.32 to 182; P = 9.47×10 −8 ) and rs7546189 (odds ratio, 1.53; 95% confidence interval, 1.30 to 1.81; P = 4.60×10 −7 ). In comparison with kidney tissue from healthy living donors, kidney biopsies in patients with AKI showed differential DISP1 expression in proximal tubular epithelial cells (adjusted P = 3.9× 10−2) and thick ascending limb of the loop of Henle (adjusted P = 8.7× 10−3) and differential TLR5 gene expression in thick ascending limb of the loop of Henle (adjusted P = 4.9× 10−30).

Conclusions

AKI is a heterogeneous clinical syndrome with various underlying risk factors, etiologies, and pathophysiology that may limit the identification of genetic variants. Although no variants reached genome-wide significance, we report two variants in the intergenic region between DISP1 and TLR5 , suggesting this region as a novel risk for AKI susceptibility.

Risk for Chronic Kidney Disease Progression After Acute Kidney Injury: Findings From the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Prior studies associating acute kidney injury (AKI) with more rapid subsequent loss of kidney function had methodological limitations, including inadequate control for differences between patients who had AKI and those who did not.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether AKI is independently associated with subsequent kidney function trajectory among patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD).

DESIGN

Multicenter prospective cohort study.

SETTING

United States.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with CKD (n = 3150).

MEASUREMENTS

Hospitalized AKI was defined by a 50% or greater increase in inpatient serum creatinine (SCr) level from nadir to peak. Kidney function trajectory was assessed using estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) based on SCr level (eGFRcr) or cystatin C level (eGFRcys) measured at annual study visits.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 3.9 years, 433 participants had at least 1 AKI episode. Most episodes (92%) had stage 1 or 2 severity. There were decreases in eGFRcr (-2.30 [95% CI, -3.70 to -0.86] mL/min/1.73 m2) and eGFRcys (-3.61 [CI, -6.39 to -0.82] mL/min/1.73 m2) after AKI. However, in fully adjusted models, the decreases were attenuated to -0.38 (CI, -1.35 to 0.59) mL/min/1.73 m2 for eGFRcr and -0.15 (CI, -2.16 to 1.86) mL/min/1.73 m2 for eGFRcys, and the CI bounds included the possibility of no effect. Estimates of changes in eGFR slope after AKI determined by either SCr level (0.04 [CI, -0.30 to 0.38] mL/min/1.73 m2 per year) or cystatin C level (-0.56 [CI, -1.28 to 0.17] mL/min/1.73 m2 per year) also had CI bounds that included the possibility of no effect.

LIMITATIONS

Few cases of severe AKI, no adjudication of AKI cause, and lack of information about nephrotoxic exposures after hospital discharge.

CONCLUSION

After pre-AKI eGFR, proteinuria, and other covariables were accounted for, the association between mild to moderate AKI and worsening subsequent kidney function in patients with CKD was small.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, National Institutes of Health.

Proteomic cardiovascular risk assessment in chronic kidney disease

AIMS

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is widely prevalent and independently increases cardiovascular risk. Cardiovascular risk prediction tools derived in the general population perform poorly in CKD. Through large-scale proteomics discovery, this study aimed to create more accurate cardiovascular risk models.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Elastic net regression was used to derive a proteomic risk model for incident cardiovascular risk in 2182 participants from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort. The model was then validated in 485 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort. All participants had CKD and no history of cardiovascular disease at study baseline when ∼5000 proteins were measured. The proteomic risk model, which consisted of 32 proteins, was superior to both the 2013 ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equation and a modified Pooled Cohort Equation that included estimated glomerular filtrate rate. The Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort internal validation set demonstrated annualized receiver operating characteristic area under the curve values from 1 to 10 years ranging between 0.84 and 0.89 for the protein and 0.70 and 0.73 for the clinical models. Similar findings were observed in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities validation cohort. For nearly half of the individual proteins independently associated with cardiovascular risk, Mendelian randomization suggested a causal link to cardiovascular events or risk factors. Pathway analyses revealed enrichment of proteins involved in immunologic function, vascular and neuronal development, and hepatic fibrosis.

CONCLUSION

In two sizeable populations with CKD, a proteomic risk model for incident cardiovascular disease surpassed clinical risk models recommended in clinical practice, even after including estimated glomerular filtration rate. New biological insights may prioritize the development of therapeutic strategies for cardiovascular risk reduction in the CKD population.

Joint Modeling of Clinical and Biomarker Data in Acute Kidney Injury Defines Unique Subphenotypes with Differing Outcomes

BACKGROUND

AKI is a heterogeneous syndrome. Current subphenotyping approaches have only used limited laboratory data to understand a much more complex condition.

METHODS

We focused on patients with AKI from the Assessment, Serial Evaluation, and Subsequent Sequelae in AKI (ASSESS-AKI). We used hierarchical clustering with Ward linkage on biomarkers of inflammation, injury, and repair/health. We then evaluated clinical differences between subphenotypes and examined their associations with cardiorenal events and death using Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

We included 748 patients with AKI: 543 (73%) of them had AKI stage 1, 112 (15%) had AKI stage 2, and 93 (12%) had AKI stage 3. The mean age (±SD) was 64 (13) years; 508 (68%) were men; and the median follow-up was 4.7 (Q1: 2.9, Q3: 5.7) years. Patients with AKI subphenotype 1 ( N =181) had the highest kidney injury molecule (KIM-1) and troponin T levels. Subphenotype 2 ( N =250) had the highest levels of uromodulin. AKI subphenotype 3 ( N =159) comprised patients with markedly high pro-brain natriuretic peptide and plasma tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 and -2 and low concentrations of KIM-1 and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin. Finally, patients with subphenotype 4 ( N =158) predominantly had sepsis-AKI and the highest levels of vascular/kidney inflammation (YKL-40, MCP-1) and injury (neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, KIM-1). AKI subphenotypes 3 and 4 were independently associated with a higher risk of death compared with subphenotype 2 and had adjusted hazard ratios of 2.9 (95% confidence interval, 1.8 to 4.6) and 1.6 (95% confidence interval, 1.01 to 2.6, P = 0.04), respectively. Subphenotype 3 was also independently associated with a three-fold risk of CKD and cardiovascular events.

CONCLUSIONS

We discovered four AKI subphenotypes with differing clinical features and biomarker profiles that are associated with longitudinal clinical outcomes.

The association between changes in echocardiography and risk of heart failure hospitalizations and death in adults with chronic kidney disease

Adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at increased risk for developing heart failure (HF). However, longitudinal cardiac remodeling in CKD has not been well-characterized and its association with HF outcomes remains unknown. We evaluated the association between change in echocardiographic parameters between baseline and year 4 with the subsequent risk of HF hospitalization and death using Cox proportional hazard models in a landmark analysis of a prospective multicenter CKD cohort. Among 2673 participants, mean ± SD age was 61 ± 11 years, with 45% women, and 56% non-white. A total of 472 hospitalizations for HF and 776 deaths occurred during a median (interquartile range) follow-up duration of 8.0 (6.3-9.1) years. Patients hospitalized for HF experienced larger preceding absolute increases in left ventricular (LV) volumes and decreases in LV ejection fraction. Adverse changes in LV ejection fraction, LV cavity volume, LV mass index, and LV geometry were independently associated with an increased risk of HF hospitalization and death. Among adults with CKD, deleterious cardiac remodeling occurs over a relatively short timeframe and adverse remodeling is associated with increased risk of HF-related morbidity and mortality.

Rivaroxaban for Prevention of Thrombotic Events, Hospitalization, and Death in Outpatients With COVID-19: A Randomized Clinical Trial

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) is associated with heightened risks of venous and arterial thrombosis and hospitalization due to respiratory failure. To assess whether prophylactic anticoagulation can safely reduce the frequency of venous and arterial thrombosis, hospitalization, and death in nonhospitalized patients with symptomatic COVID-19 and at least one thrombosis risk factor, we conducted the PREVENT-HD double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized trial (A Study of Rivaroxaban to Reduce the Risk of Major Venous and Arterial Thrombotic Events, Hospitalization and Death in Medically Ill Outpatients With Acute, Symptomatic COVID-19] Infection).

METHODS

PREVENT-HD was conducted between August 2020 and April 2022 at 14 US integrated health care delivery networks. A virtual trial design used remote informed consent and clinical monitoring and facilitated data collection through electronic health record integration with a cloud-based research platform. Nonhospitalized patients with symptomatic COVID-19 and at least one thrombosis risk factor were enrolled and randomly assigned to either 10 mg of oral rivaroxaban or placebo daily for 35 days. The primary efficacy outcome was time to first occurrence of a composite of symptomatic venous thromboembolism, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, acute limb ischemia, non-central nervous system systemic arterial embolism, hospitalization, or death through day 35. The principal safety end point was International Society on Thrombosis and Hemostasis critical-site or fatal bleeding. The last study visit was on day 49.

RESULTS

The study was terminated prematurely because of enrollment challenges and a lower-than-expected blinded pooled event rate. A total of 1284 patients underwent randomization with complete accrual of primary events through May 2022. No patients were lost to follow-up. The primary efficacy outcome occurred in 22 of 641 in the rivaroxaban group and 19 of 643 in the placebo group (3.4% versus 3.0%; hazard ratio, 1.16 [95% CI, 0.63-2.15]; P=0.63). No patient in either group experienced critical-site or fatal bleeding. One patient receiving rivaroxaban had a major bleed.

CONCLUSIONS

The study was terminated prematurely after enrollment of 32% of planned accrual because of recruitment challenges and lower-than-expected event rate. Rivaroxaban prescribed for 35 days in nonhospitalized patients with symptomatic COVID-19 at risk for thrombosis did not appear to reduce a composite end point of venous and arterial thrombotic events, hospitalization, and death.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov; Unique identifier: NCT04508023.

Longitudinal biomarkers and kidney disease progression after acute kidney injury

BACKGROUNDLongitudinal investigations of murine acute kidney injury (AKI) suggest that injury and inflammation may persist long after the initial insult. However, the evolution of these processes and their prognostic values are unknown in patients with AKI.METHODSIn a prospective cohort of 656 participants hospitalized with AKI, we measured 7 urine and 2 plasma biomarkers of kidney injury, inflammation, and tubular health at multiple time points from the diagnosis to 12 months after AKI. We used linear mixed-effect models to estimate biomarker changes over time, and we used Cox proportional hazard regressions to determine their associations with a composite outcome of chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence and progression. We compared the gene expression kinetics of biomarkers in murine models of repair and atrophy after ischemic reperfusion injury (IRI).RESULTSAfter 4.3 years, 106 and 52 participants developed incident CKD and CKD progression, respectively. Each SD increase in the change of urine KIM-1, MCP-1, and plasma TNFR1 from baseline to 12 months was associated with 2- to 3-fold increased risk for CKD, while the increase in urine uromodulin was associated with 40% reduced risk for CKD. The trajectories of these biological processes were associated with progression to kidney atrophy in mice after IRI.CONCLUSIONSustained tissue injury and inflammation, and slower restoration of tubular health, are associated with higher risk of kidney disease progression. Further investigation into these ongoing biological processes may help researchers understand and prevent the AKI-to-CKD transition.FUNDINGNIH and NIDDK (grants U01DK082223, U01DK082185, U01DK082192, U01DK082183, R01DK098233, R01DK101507, R01DK114014, K23DK100468, R03DK111881, K01DK120783, and R01DK093771).

Analytical and Biological Variability of a Commercial Modified Aptamer Assay in Plasma Samples of Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease

BACKGROUND

We carried out a study of the aptamer proteomic assay, SomaScan V4, to evaluate the analytical and biological variability of the assay in plasma samples of patients with moderate to severe chronic kidney disease (CKD).

METHODS

Plasma samples were selected from 2 sources: (a) 24 participants from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) and (b) 49 patients from the Brigham and Women's Hospital-Kidney/Renal Clinic. We calculated intra-assay variability from both sources and examined short-term biological variability in samples from the Brigham clinic. We also measured correlations of aptamer measurements with traditional biomarker assays.

RESULTS

A total of 4656 unique proteins (4849 total aptamer measures) were analyzed in all samples. Median (interquartile range [IQR] intra-assay CV) was 3.7% (2.8-5.3) in CRIC and 5.0% (3.8-7.0) in Brigham samples. Median (IQR) biological CV among Brigham samples drawn from one individual on 2 occasions separated by median (IQR) 7 (4-14) days was 8.7% (6.2-14). CVs were independent of CKD stage, diabetes, or albuminuria but were higher in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus. Rho correlations between aptamer and traditional assays for biomarkers of interest were cystatin C = 0.942, kidney injury model-1 = 0.905, fibroblast growth factor-23 = 0.541, tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 = 0.781 and 2 = 0.843, P < 10-100 for all.

CONCLUSIONS

Intra-assay and within-subject variability for SomaScan in the CKD setting was low and similar to assay variability reported from individuals without CKD. Intra-assay precision was excellent whether samples were collected in an optimal research protocol, as were CRIC samples, or in the clinical setting, as were the Brigham samples.

Approach to Multimorbidity Burden Classification and Outcomes in Older Adults With Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

The optimal approach to classifying multimorbidity burden in assessing treatment-associated outcomes using real-world data remains uncertain. We assessed whether 2 measurement approaches to characterize multimorbidity influenced observed associations of β-blocker use with outcomes in adults with heart failure (HF).

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study on adults with HF from 4 integrated health care delivery systems. Multimorbidity burden was characterized by either (1) simple counts of chronic conditions or (2) a weighted multiple chronic conditions score using data from electronic health records. We assessed the impact of these 2 approaches to characterizing multimorbidity on associations between exposure to β-blockers and subsequent all-cause death, hospitalization for HF, and hospitalization for any cause.

RESULTS

The study population characterized by a count of chronic conditions included 9988 adults with HF who had a mean (SD) age of 76.4 (12.5) years, with 48.7% women and 24.7% racial/ethnic minorities. The cohort characterized by weighted multiple chronic conditions included 10,082 adults with HF who had a mean (SD) age of 76.4 (12.4) years, 48.9% women, and 25.5% racial/ethnic minorities. The multivariable associations of risks of death or hospitalizations for HF or for any cause associated with incident β-blocker use were similar regardless of how multimorbidity burden was characterized.

CONCLUSIONS

Simple counts of chronic conditions performed similarly to a weighted multimorbidity score in predicting outcomes using real-world data to examine clinical outcomes associated with β-blocker therapy in HF. Our findings challenge conventional wisdom that more complex measures of multimorbidity are always necessary to characterize patients in observational studies examining therapy-associated outcomes.

Health Literacy and Treatment Satisfaction Among Patients with Venous Thromboembolism

BACKGROUND

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) treatment requires complex management, and patients with limited health literacy (HL) may perceive higher burden and lower benefits associated with their treatment.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association of HL with treatment satisfaction among patients with VTE.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study PARTICIPANTS: Kaiser Permanente Southern and Northern California members who were taking oral anticoagulants (OAC) for incident VTE between 2015 and 2018 were surveyed. Main Measures HL was assessed using a 3-item HL assessment and dichotomized as having adequate or limited HL. High treatment burden and low treatment benefit were defined as Anti-Clot Treatment Scale (ACTS) scores below the 25th percentile of the distributions for ACTS Burdens and Benefits survey components, respectively. Using Poisson regression, multivariable adjusted risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for the association of HL with high treatment burden and low treatment benefits.

RESULTS

Among 2154 respondents, 397 (18.4%) had limited HL. Patients with limited vs adequate HL were older (47.9% vs 27.5% aged ≥ 75 years, p<0.001), more likely to use a non-English language when discussing their health (10.8% vs 1.7%, p<0.001), to have less than high school education (10.1% vs 1.7%, p<0.001), and to self-rate their health as fair or poor (47.6% vs 25.5%, p<0.001). After multivariable adjustment, patients with limited HL were more likely to have higher perceived treatment burden (RR 1.24, 95% CI 1.07, 1.45) and lower perceived treatment benefits (RR 1.21, 95% CI 1.08, 1.37).

CONCLUSIONS

Limited HL was associated with lower OAC treatment satisfaction, though absolute differences in satisfaction scores were small. Further examination of the intersection of HL with VTE treatment satisfaction and compliance among older and non-English speaking patients is warranted.

Probing the Association between Acute Kidney Injury and Cardiovascular Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Patients hospitalized with AKI have higher subsequent risks of heart failure, atherosclerotic cardiovascular events, and mortality than their counterparts without AKI, but these higher risks may be due to differences in prehospitalization patient characteristics, including the baseline level of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), the rate of prior eGFR decline, and the proteinuria level, rather than AKI itself.

METHODS

Among 2177 adult participants in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort study who were hospitalized in 2013-2019, we compared subsequent risks of heart failure, atherosclerotic cardiovascular events, and mortality between those with serum creatinine-based AKI (495 patients) and those without AKI (1682 patients). We report both crude associations and associations sequentially adjusted for prehospitalization characteristics including eGFR, eGFR slope, and urine protein-creatinine ratio (UPCR).

RESULTS

Compared with patients hospitalized without AKI, those with hospitalized AKI had lower eGFR prehospitalization (42 versus 49 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ), faster chronic loss of eGFR prehospitalization (-0.84 versus -0.51 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 per year), and more proteinuria prehospitalization (UPCR 0.28 versus 0.16 g/g); they also had higher prehospitalization systolic BP (130 versus 127 mm Hg; P < 0.01 for all comparisons). Adjustment for prehospitalization patient characteristics attenuated associations between AKI and all three outcomes, but AKI remained an independent risk factor. Attenuation of risk was similar after adjustment for absolute eGFR, eGFR slope, or proteinuria, individually or in combination.

CONCLUSIONS

Prehospitalization variables including eGFR, eGFR slope, and proteinuria confounded associations between AKI and adverse cardiovascular outcomes, but these associations remained significant after adjusting for prehospitalization variables.

Clinical decision support to Optimize Care of patients with Atrial Fibrillation or flutter in the Emergency department: protocol of a stepped-wedge cluster randomized pragmatic trial (O'CAFÉ trial)

BACKGROUND

Management of adults with atrial fibrillation (AF) or atrial flutter in the emergency department (ED) includes rate reduction, cardioversion, and stroke prevention. Different approaches to these components of care may lead to variation in frequency of hospitalization and stroke prevention actions, with significant implications for patient experience, cost of care, and risk of complications. Standardization using evidence-based recommendations could reduce variation in management, preventable hospitalizations, and stroke risk.

METHODS

We describe the rationale for our ED-based AF treatment recommendations. We also describe the development of an electronic clinical decision support system (CDSS) to deliver these recommendations to emergency physicians at the point of care. We implemented the CDSS at three pilot sites to assess feasibility and solicit user feedback. We will evaluate the impact of the CDSS on hospitalization and stroke prevention actions using a stepped-wedge cluster randomized pragmatic clinical trial across 13 community EDs in Northern California.

DISCUSSION

We hypothesize that the CDSS intervention will reduce hospitalization of adults with isolated AF or atrial flutter presenting to the ED and increase anticoagulation prescription in eligible patients at the time of ED discharge and within 30 days. If our hypotheses are confirmed, the treatment protocol and CDSS could be recommended to other EDs to improve management of adults with AF or atrial flutter.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05009225 .  Registered on 17 August 2021.

Incident Atrial Fibrillation and Risk of Dementia in a Diverse, Community-Based Population

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common, clinically relevant arrhythmia in adults and associated with ischemic stroke and premature death. However, data are conflicting on whether AF is independently associated with risk of dementia, particularly in diverse populations. Methods and Results We identified all adults from 2 large integrated health care delivery systems between 2010 and 2017 and performed a 1:1 match of incident AF: no AF by age at index date, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate category, and study site. Subsequent dementia was identified through previously validated diagnosis codes. Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard models were used to examine the association of incident AF (versus no AF) with risk of incident dementia, adjusting for sociodemographics and comorbidity and accounting for competing risk of death. Subgroup analyses by age, sex, race, ethnicity, and chronic kidney disease status were also performed. Among 196 968 matched adults, mean (SD) age was 73.6 (11.3) years, with 44.8% women, and 72.3% White. Incidence rates (per 100 person-years) for dementia over a median follow-up of 3.3 (interquartile range, 1.7-5.4) years were 2.79 (95% CI, 2.72-2.85) and 2.04 (95% CI, 1.99-2.08) per 100 person-years in persons with versus without incident AF, respectively. In adjusted models, incident AF was associated with a significantly greater risk of diagnosed dementia (subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR], 1.13 [95% CI, 1.09-1.16]). With additional adjustment for interim stroke events, the association of incident AF with dementia remained statistically significant (sHR, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.07-1.15]). Associations were stronger for age <65 (sHR, 1.65 [95% CI, 1.29-2.12]) versus ≥65 (sHR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.03-1.10]) years (interaction P<0.001); and those without (sHR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.14-1.26]) versus with chronic kidney disease (sHR, 1.06 [95% CI, 1.01-1.11]; interaction P<0.001). No meaningful differences were seen by sex, race, or ethnicity. Conclusions In a large, diverse community-based cohort, incident AF was associated with a modestly increased risk of dementia that was more prominent in younger patients and those without chronic kidney disease but did not substantially vary across sex, race, or ethnicity. Further studies should delineate mechanisms underpinning these findings, which may inform use of AF therapies.

Assessment of the Risk of Venous Thromboembolism in Nonhospitalized Patients With COVID-19

IMPORTANCE

Patients hospitalized with COVID-19 have higher rates of venous thromboembolism (VTE), but the risk and predictors of VTE among individuals with less severe COVID-19 managed in outpatient settings are less well understood.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the risk of VTE among outpatients with COVID-19 and identify independent predictors of VTE.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted at 2 integrated health care delivery systems in Northern and Southern California. Data for this study were obtained from the Kaiser Permanente Virtual Data Warehouse and electronic health records. Participants included nonhospitalized adults aged 18 years or older with COVID-19 diagnosed between January 1, 2020, and January 31, 2021, with follow-up through February 28, 2021.

EXPOSURES

Patient demographic and clinical characteristics identified from integrated electronic health records.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was the rate per 100 person-years of diagnosed VTE, which was identified using an algorithm based on encounter diagnosis codes and natural language processing. Multivariable regression using a Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model was used to identify variables independently associated with VTE risk. Multiple imputation was used to address missing data.

RESULTS

A total of 398 530 outpatients with COVID-19 were identified. The mean (SD) age was 43.8 (15.8) years, 53.7% were women, and 54.3% were of self-reported Hispanic ethnicity. There were 292 (0.1%) VTE events identified over the follow-up period, for an overall rate of 0.26 (95% CI, 0.24-0.30) per 100 person-years. The sharpest increase in VTE risk was observed during the first 30 days after COVID-19 diagnosis (unadjusted rate, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.51-0.67 per 100 person-years vs 0.09; 95% CI, 0.08-0.11 per 100 person-years after 30 days). In multivariable models, the following variables were associated with a higher risk for VTE in the setting of nonhospitalized COVID-19: age 55 to 64 years (HR 1.85 [95% CI, 1.26-2.72]), 65 to 74 years (3.43 [95% CI, 2.18-5.39]), 75 to 84 years (5.46 [95% CI, 3.20-9.34]), greater than or equal to 85 years (6.51 [95% CI, 3.05-13.86]), male gender (1.49 [95% CI, 1.15-1.96]), prior VTE (7.49 [95% CI, 4.29-13.07]), thrombophilia (2.52 [95% CI, 1.04-6.14]), inflammatory bowel disease (2.43 [95% CI, 1.02-5.80]), body mass index 30.0-39.9 (1.57 [95% CI, 1.06-2.34]), and body mass index greater than or equal to 40.0 (3.07 [1.95-4.83]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study of outpatients with COVID-19, the absolute risk of VTE was low. Several patient-level factors were associated with higher VTE risk; these findings may help identify subsets of patients with COVID-19 who may benefit from more intensive surveillance or VTE preventive strategies.

Association of Kidney Function With Risk of Adverse Effects of Therapies for Atrial Fibrillation

Introduction

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and is treated with rate control medications, antiarrhythmic medications, as well as anticoagulation and procedures, each of which have associated risks. We aimed to evaluate the association of CKD status with the risks of adverse effects after initiation of AF therapies.

Methods

This was a cohort study of community-based adults who newly initiated rate control medications, antiarrhythmic medications, warfarin, direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) or received AF procedures in the 1 year after diagnosis of AF. Baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated using outpatient serum creatinine measures. Adverse effects within 1 year related to each AF therapy or within 1 month of an AF procedure were ascertained from vital sign databases, electrocardiograms (ECGs), and administrative codes. Fine-Gray hazard models were used to study the association of eGFR categories with risk of adverse effects for each AF therapy.

Results

Among 115,564 patients with incident AF, lower eGFR (vs. eGFR ≥60 ml/min per 1.73 m²) was significantly associated with higher adjusted risk of adverse effects after initiation of rate control therapies (most commonly hypotension and bradycardia) as follows: eGFR 45-59 (hazard ratio [HR] 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-1.22), 30-44 (HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.06-1.25), and 15-29 (HR 1.29, 95% CI: 1.12-1.47) ml/min per 1.73 m². Lower eGFR was associated with higher adjusted risk of adverse effects (most commonly prolonged QRS and QTc intervals) after initiation of an antiarrhythmic medication (vs. eGFR >60 ml/min per 1.73 m²) as follows: eGFR 45-59 (HR 1.12, 95% CI 1.01-1.23) and eGFR<15 (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.01-2.01) ml/min per 1.73 m².

Conclusion

There was a graded association between lower eGFR and risk of major bleeding with warfarin use, with the greatest risk among those with eGFR <15 ml/min per 1.73 m² (HR of 2.93, 95% CI 1.99-4.30). There was no association of eGFR with major bleeding in patients receiving DOACs. Rates of adverse effects within 1 month of an AF procedure were low among patients with (n = 18) and without (n = 41) CKD and was underpowered for further analyses. In conclusion, lower eGFR was associated with significantly higher risks of adverse effects after initiation of commonly used therapies to treat AF. These data may help inform the complex therapeutic decisions in patients with CKD and AF.

Research Opportunities in Stroke Prevention for Atrial Fibrillation: A Report From a National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Virtual Workshop

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of the strongest risk factors for ischemic stroke, which is a leading cause of disability and death. Given the aging population, increasing prevalence of AF risk factors, and improved survival in those with cardiovascular disease, the number of individuals affected by AF will continue increasing over time. While multiple proven stroke prevention therapies exist, important questions remain about the optimal approach to stroke prevention at the population and individual patient levels. Our report summarizes the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute virtual workshop focused on identifying key research opportunities related to stroke prevention in AF. The workshop reviewed major knowledge gaps and identified targeted research opportunities to advance stroke prevention in AF in the following areas: (1) improving risk stratification tools for stroke and intracranial hemorrhage; (2) addressing challenges with oral anticoagulants; and (3) delineating the optimal roles of percutaneous left atrial appendage occlusion and surgical left atrial appendage closure/excision. This report aims to promote innovative, impactful research that will lead to more personalized, effective use of stroke prevention strategies in people with AF.

Outcomes of Adults with Severe Aortic Stenosis Undergoing Urgent or Emergent vs. Elective Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement Within an Integrated Health Care Delivery System

Background

Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) may be used to urgently or emergently treat severe aortic stenosis, but outcomes for this high-risk population have not been well-characterized. We sought to describe the incidence, clinical characteristics, and outcomes of patients undergoing urgent or emergent vs. elective TAVR.

Methods

We identified all adults who received TAVR for primary aortic stenosis between 2013 and 2019 within an integrated health care delivery system in Northern California. Elective or urgent/emergent procedure status was based on standard Society of Thoracic Surgeons definitions. Data were obtained from electronic health records, the Society of Thoracic Surgeons-American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry, and state/national reporting databases. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models were performed.

Results

Among 1564 eligible adults that underwent TAVR, 81 (5.2%) were classified as urgent/emergent. These patients were more likely to have heart failure (63.0% vs. 47.4%), reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (21.0% vs. 11.8%), or a prior aortic valve balloon valvuloplasty (13.6% vs. 5.0%) and experienced higher unadjusted rates of 30-day and 1-year morbidity and mortality. Urgent/emergent TAVR status was independently associated with non-improved quality of life at 30-days (hazard ratio, 4.87; p < 0.01) and acute kidney injury within 1-year post-TAVR (hazard ratio, 2.11; p = 0.01). There was not a significant difference in adjusted 1-year mortality with urgent/emergent TAVR.

Conclusions

Urgent/emergent TAVR status was uncommon and associated with high-risk clinical features and higher unadjusted rates of short- and long-term morbidity and mortality. Procedure status may be useful to identify patients less likely to experience significant short term improvement in health-related quality of life post-TAVR.

Practice Patterns and Outcomes Associated With Anticoagulation Use Following Sepsis Hospitalizations With New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Practice patterns and outcomes associated with the use of oral anticoagulation for arterial thromboembolism prevention following a hospitalization with new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) during sepsis are unclear.

METHODS

Retrospective, observational cohort study of patients ≥40 years of age discharged alive following hospitalization with new-onset AF during sepsis across 21 hospitals in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California health care delivery system, years 2011 to 2018. Primary outcomes were ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA), with a safety outcome of major bleeding events, both within 1 year of discharge alive from sepsis hospitalization. Adjusted risk differences for outcomes between patients who did and did not receive oral anticoagulation within 30 days of discharge were estimated using marginal structural models fitted by inverse probability weighting using Super Learning within a target trial emulation framework.

RESULTS

Among 82 748 patients hospitalized with sepsis, 3992 (4.8%) had new-onset AF and survived to hospital discharge; mean age was 78±11 years, 53% were men, and 70% were White. Patients with new-onset AF during sepsis averaged 45±33% of telemetry monitoring entries with AF, and 27% had AF present on the day of hospital discharge. Within 1 year of hospital discharge, 89 (2.2%) patients experienced stroke/TIA, 225 (5.6%) had major bleeding, and 1011 (25%) died. Within 30 days of discharge, 807 (20%) patients filled oral anticoagulation prescriptions, which were associated with higher 1-year adjusted risks of ischemic stroke/TIA (5.69% versus 2.32%; risk difference, 3.37% [95% CI, 0.36-6.38]) and no significant difference in 1-year adjusted risks of major bleeding (6.51% versus 7.10%; risk difference, -0.59% [95% CI, -3.09 to 1.91]). Sensitivity analysis of ischemic stroke-only outcomes showed a risk difference of 0.15% (95% CI, -1.72 to 2.03).

CONCLUSIONS

After hospitalization with new-onset AF during sepsis, oral anticoagulation use was uncommon and associated with potentially higher stroke/TIA risk. Further research to inform mechanisms of stroke and TIA and management of new-onset AF after sepsis is needed.

Breast Arterial Calcification is Associated with Incident Atrial Fibrillation among Older but not Younger Postmenopausal Women

Aims

The goal of this study was to examine the association of breast arterial calcification (BAC) presence and quantity with incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in a large cohort of postmenopausal women.

Methods

We conducted a longitudinal cohort study among women free of clinically overt cardiovascular disease (CVD) and AF at baseline (between 10/2012 and 2/2015) when they attended mammography screening. AF incidence was ascertained using diagnostic codes and Natural Language Processing (NLP).

Results

Among 4,908 women, 354 incident cases of AF (7%) were ascertained after a mean (SD) of 7 (2) years of follow-up. In Cox regression adjusting for a propensity score for BAC, BAC presence versus absence was not significantly associated with AF (HR=1.12; 95% CI, 0.89–1.42; p=0.34). However, a significant (a priori hypothesized) age by BAC interaction was found (p=0.02) such that BAC presence was not associated with incident AF in women aged 60-69 years (HR=0.83; 95% CI, 0.63–1.15; p=0.26) but was significantly associated with incident AF in women aged 70 to 79 years (HR=1.75; 95% CI, 1.21–2.53; p=0.003). No evidence of dose-response relationship between BAC gradation and AF was noted in the entire cohort or in age groups separately.

Conclusion

Our results demonstrate, for the first time, an independent association between BAC and AF in women over age 70 years.

Abstract WMP72: Acute Ischemic Stroke In Asians In A Large Integrated Health Care Delivery System

Background: Stroke is a major problem in Asia where more than half of the world population resides. Asian Americans are among the fastest growing racial-ethnic groups in the US, yet the incidence of stroke subtypes, stroke risk factors and outcomes have been largely unstudied in Asian Americans. We assessed acute stroke alert presentations in Asians compared to whites in a large integrated health care delivery system.

Methods: In 2016, Kaiser Permanente Northern California launched a standardized telestroke program for 21 certified stroke centers to include immediate video evaluation by a teleneurologist. Non-cancelled stroke alerts included those patients who were potential candidates for further workup for acute ischemic stroke treatment. We evaluated all non-cancelled stroke alerts evaluated by Telestroke in 2019. Assessment included demographics, mode of arrival, initial NIHSS, neuroimaging results, IV thrombolytic, door-to-needle (DTN) time, large vessel occlusion (LVO), thrombectomy referral, and discharge disposition.

Results: We identified 427 Asian and 1262 White patients with potential acute ischemic stroke. Compared with whites, Asians were younger, just as likely to arrive via EMS and arrived quicker from their last known well time, but presented with more severe NIHSS, were more likely to have bleeding on the initial head CT, and less likely to receive IV thrombolytic within 30 minutes from ED arrival (Table). Asians had less detected LVO, but those with LVO were transferred out for thrombectomy faster compared with whites. There were less stroke mimics in Asians presenting with stroke alerts, and no difference in inpatient mortality compared with whites.

Conclusions: Several differences existed between Asian and white patients evaluated by Telestroke as non-cancelled stroke alerts. Further research is needed to understand these differences and assess outcomes for Asians as well as major Asian subgroups presenting with acute ischemic stroke.

Predicting short-term outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis

BACKGROUND

The approved use of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) for aortic stenosis has expanded substantially over time. However, gaps remain with respect to accurately delineating risk for poor clinical and patient-centered outcomes. Our objective was to develop prediction models for 30-day clinical and patient-centered outcomes after TAVR within a large, diverse community-based population.

METHODS

We identified all adults who underwent TAVR between 2013-2019 at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, an integrated healthcare delivery system, and were monitored for the following 30-day outcomes: all-cause death, improvement in quality of life, all-cause hospitalizations, all-cause emergency department (ED) visits, heart failure (HF)-related hospitalizations, and HF-related ED visits. We developed prediction models using gradient boosting machines using linked demographic, clinical and other data from the Society for Thoracic Surgeons (STS)/American College of Cardiology (ACC) TVT Registry and electronic health records. We evaluated model performance using area under the curve (AUC) for model discrimination and associated calibration plots. We also evaluated the association of individual predictors with outcomes using logistic regression for quality of life and Cox proportional hazards regression for all other outcomes.

RESULTS

We identified 1,565 eligible patients who received TAVR. The risks of adverse 30-day post-TAVR outcomes ranged from 1.3% (HF hospitalizations) to 15.3% (all-cause ED visits). In models with the highest discrimination, discrimination was only moderate for death (AUC 0.60) and quality of life (AUC 0.62), but better for HF-related ED visits (AUC 0.76). Calibration also varied for different outcomes. Importantly, STS risk score only independently predicted death and all-cause hospitalization but no other outcomes. Older age also only independently predicted HF-related ED visits, and race/ethnicity was not significantly associated with any outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite using a combination of detailed STS/ACC TVT Registry and electronic health record data, predicting short-term clinical and patient-centered outcomes after TAVR remains challenging. More work is needed to identify more accurate predictors for post-TAVR outcomes to support personalized clinical decision making and monitoring strategies.

Plasma Soluble Tumor Necrosis Factor Receptor Concentrations and Clinical Events After Hospitalization: Findings From the ASSESS-AKI and ARID Studies

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

The role of plasma soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (sTNFR1) and sTNFR2 in the prognosis of clinical events after hospitalization with or without acute kidney injury (AKI) is unknown.

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective cohort.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

Hospital survivors from the ASSESS-AKI (Assessment, Serial Evaluation, and Subsequent Sequelae of Acute Kidney Injury) and ARID (AKI Risk in Derby) studies with and without AKI during the index hospitalization who had baseline serum samples for biomarker measurements.

PREDICTORS

We measured sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 from plasma samples obtained 3 months after discharge.

OUTCOMES

The associations of biomarkers with longitudinal kidney disease incidence and progression, heart failure, and death were evaluated.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

Among 1,474 participants with plasma biomarker measurements, 19% had kidney disease progression, 14% had later heart failure, and 21% died during a median follow-up of 4.4 years. For the kidney outcome, the adjusted HRs (AHRs) per doubling in concentration were 2.9 (95% CI, 2.2-3.9) for sTNFR1 and 1.9 (95% CI, 1.5-2.5) for sTNFR2. AKI during the index hospitalization did not modify the association between biomarkers and kidney events. For heart failure, the AHRs per doubling in concentration were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.4-2.5) for sTNFR1 and 1.5 (95% CI, 1.2-2.0) for sTNFR2. For mortality, the AHRs were 3.3 (95% CI, 2.5-4.3) for sTNFR1 and 2.5 (95% CI, 2.0-3.1) for sTNFR2. The findings in ARID were qualitatively similar in terms of the magnitude of association between biomarkers and outcomes.

LIMITATIONS

Different biomarker platforms and AKI definitions; limited generalizability to other ethnic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Plasma sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 measured 3 months after hospital discharge were independently associated with clinical events regardless of AKI status during the index admission. sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 may assist with the risk stratification of patients during follow-up.

Transforming Atrial Fibrillation Research to Integrate Social Determinants of Health: A National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Workshop Report

Importance

Only modest attention has been paid to the contributions of social determinants of health to atrial fibrillation (AF) risk factors, diagnosis, symptoms, management, and outcomes. The diagnosis of AF provides unique challenges exacerbated by the arrhythmia's often paroxysmal nature and individuals' disparate access to health care and technologies that facilitate detection. Social determinants of health affect access to care and management decisions for AF, increasing the likelihood of adverse outcomes among individuals who experience systemic disadvantages. Developing effective approaches to address modifiable social determinants of health requires research to eliminate the substantive inequities in health care delivery and outcomes in AF.

Observations

The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute convened an expert panel to identify major knowledge gaps and research opportunities in the field of social determinants of AF. The workshop addressed the following social determinants: (1) socioeconomic status and access to care; (2) health literacy; (3) race, ethnicity, and racism; (4) sex and gender; (5) shared decision-making in systemically disadvantaged populations; and (6) place, including rurality, neighborhood, and community. Many individuals with AF have multiple adverse social determinants, which may cluster in the individual and in systemically disadvantaged places (eg, rural locations, urban neighborhoods). Cumulative disadvantages may accumulate over the life course and contribute to inequities in the diagnosis, management, and outcomes in AF.

Conclusions and Relevance

Workshop participants identified multiple critical research questions and approaches to catalyze social determinants of health research that address the distinctive aspects of AF. The long-term aspiration of this work is to eradicate the substantive inequities in AF diagnosis, management, and outcomes across populations.

Performance of the pooled cohort equation in South Asians: insights from a large integrated healthcare delivery system

South Asian ethnicity is associated with increased atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk and has been identified as a "risk enhancer" in the 2018 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Guidelines. Risk estimation and statin eligibility in South Asians is not well understood; we studied the accuracy of 10-years ASCVD risk prediction by the pooled cohort equation (PCE), based on statin use, in a South Asian cohort. This is a retrospective cohort study of Kaiser Permanente Northern California South Asian members without existing ASCVD, age range 30-70, and 10-years follow up. ASCVD events were defined as myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, and cardiovascular death. The cohort was stratified by statin use during the study period: never; at baseline and during follow-up; and only during follow-up. Predicted probability of ASCVD, using the PCE was calculated and compared to observed ASCVD events for low < 5.0%, borderline 5.0 to < 7.5%, intermediate 7.5 to < 20.0%, and high ≥ 20.0% risk groups. A total of 1835 South Asian members were included: 773 never on statin, 374 on statins at baseline and follow-up, and 688 on statins during follow-up only. ASCVD risk was underestimated by the PCE in low-risk groups: entire cohort: 1.8 versus 4.9%, p < 0.0001; on statin at baseline and follow-up: 2.58 versus 8.43%, p < 0.0001; on statin during follow-up only: 2.18 versus 7.77%, p < 0.0001; and never on statin: 1.37 versus 2.09%, p = 0.12. In this South Asian cohort, the PCE underestimated risk in South Asians, regardless of statin use, in the low risk ASCVD risk category.

The anticoagulation length of therapy and risk of new adverse events in venous thromboembolism (ALTERNATIVE) study: Design and survey results

The Anticoagulation Length of Therapy and Risk of New Adverse Events In Venous Thromboembolism (ALTERNATIVE) study was designed to compare the benefits and harms of different treatment options for extended treatment of venous thromboembolism (VTE). In this paper, we describe the study cohort, survey data collection, and preliminary results. We identified 39,605 adult patients (age ≥ 18 years) from two large integrated health care delivery systems who were diagnosed with incident VTE and received initial anticoagulation therapy of 3 months or longer. A subset of the cohort (12,737) was invited to participate in a survey. Surveys were completed in English, Spanish or Mandarin via a mailed questionnaire, an online secure web link, or telephone. The survey domains included demographics, personal medical history, anticoagulant treatment history, anticoagulant treatment satisfaction, health-related quality of life and health literacy. A total of 5,017 patients participated in the survey for an overall response rate of 39.4%. The mean (SD) age of the survey respondents was 63.0 (14.5) years and self-reported race was 76.0% White/European, 11.1% Black/African American, and 3.8% Asian/Pacific Islander and 14.0% reported Hispanic ethnicity. Sixty percent of respondents completed the web survey, while 29.0% completed the mail-in paper survey, and 11.0% completed the survey via telephone. The ALTERNATIVE Study will address knowledge gaps by comparing several treatment alternatives for the extended management of VTE so that this information could be used by patients and clinicians to make more informed, patient-centered treatment choices.

The race coefficient in glomerular filtration rate-estimating equations and its removal

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To review new publications about the use of the race coefficient in glomerular filtration rate (GFR)-estimating equations since this topic was last reviewed a year ago in Current Opinion in Nephrology and Hypertension .

RECENT FINDINGS

Accounting for race (or genetic ancestry) does improve the performance of GFR-estimating equations when serum creatinine (SCr) is used as the filtration marker but not when cystatin C is used. The National Kidney Foundation (NKF)-American Society of Nephrology (ASN) Task Force on Reassessing the Inclusion of Race in Diagnosing Kidney Disease recommended immediate adoption of a new refitted SCr-based equation without race and increased use of cystatin C. This report has created consensus but the endorsed new SCr equation without race underestimates GFR in Black Americans and overestimates GFR in non-Black Americans, which may result in diminished ability to detect racial disparities.

SUMMARY

The approach recommended by the NKF-ASN Task Force represents a compromise attempting to balance a number of competing values, including racial justice, benefit of classifying more Black Americans as having (more severe) chronic kidney disease, accuracy compared with measured GFR, and financial cost. The full implications of adopting the race-free refitted CKD-EPI SCr equation are yet to be known.

Black and White Adults With CKD Hospitalized With Acute Kidney Injury: Findings From the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Few studies have investigated racial disparities in acute kidney injury (AKI), in contrast to the extensive literature on racial differences in the risk of kidney failure. We sought to study potential differences in risk in the setting of chronic kidney disease (CKD).

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

We studied 2,720 self-identified Black or White participants with CKD enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study from July 1, 2013, to December 31, 2017.

EXPOSURE

Self-reported race (Black vs White).

OUTCOME

Hospitalized AKI (≥50% increase from nadir to peak serum creatinine).

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Cox regression models adjusting for demographics (age and sex), prehospitalization clinical risk factors (diabetes, blood pressure, cardiovascular disease, estimated glomerular filtration rate, proteinuria, receipt of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin-receptor blockers), and socioeconomic status (insurance status and education level). In a subset of participants with genotype data, we adjusted for apolipoprotein L1 gene (APOL1) high-risk status and sickle cell trait.

RESULTS

Black participants (n = 1,266) were younger but had a higher burden of prehospitalization clinical risk factors. The incidence rate of first AKI hospitalization among Black participants was 6.3 (95% CI, 5.5-7.2) per 100 person-years versus 5.3 (95% CI, 4.6-6.1) per 100 person-years among White participants. In an unadjusted Cox regression model, Black participants were at a modestly increased risk of incident AKI (HR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.01-1.48]) compared with White participants. However, this risk was attenuated and no longer significant after adjusting for prehospitalization clinical risk factors (adjusted HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.83-1.25]). There were only 11 AKI hospitalizations among individuals with high-risk APOL1 risk status and 14 AKI hospitalizations among individuals with sickle cell trait.

LIMITATIONS

Participants were limited to research volunteers and potentially not fully representative of all CKD patients.

CONCLUSIONS

In this multicenter prospective cohort of CKD patients, racial disparities in AKI incidence were modest and were explained by differences in prehospitalization clinical risk factors.

Association of Thoracic Aortic Aneurysm Size With Long-term Patient Outcomes: The KP-TAA Study

Importance

The risk of adverse events from ascending thoracic aorta aneurysm (TAA) is poorly understood but drives clinical decision-making.

Objective

To evaluate the association of TAA size with outcomes in nonsyndromic patients in a large non-referral-based health care delivery system.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The Kaiser Permanente Thoracic Aortic Aneurysm (KP-TAA) cohort study was a retrospective cohort study at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, a fully integrated health care delivery system insuring and providing care for more than 4.5 million persons. Nonsyndromic patients from a regional TAA safety net tracking system were included. Imaging data including maximum TAA size were merged with electronic health record (EHR) and comprehensive death data to obtain demographic characteristics, comorbidities, medications, laboratory values, vital signs, and subsequent outcomes. Unadjusted rates were calculated and the association of TAA size with outcomes was evaluated in multivariable competing risk models that categorized TAA size as a baseline and time-updated variable and accounted for potential confounders. Data were analyzed from January 2018 to August 2021.

Exposures

TAA size.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Aortic dissection (AD), all-cause death, and elective aortic surgery.

Results

Of 6372 patients with TAA identified between 2000 and 2016 (mean [SD] age, 68.6 [13.0] years; 2050 female individuals [32.2%] and 4322 male individuals [67.8%]), mean (SD) initial TAA size was 4.4 (0.5) cm (828 individuals [13.0% of cohort] had initial TAA size 5.0 cm or larger and 280 [4.4%] 5.5 cm or larger). Rates of AD were low across a mean (SD) 3.7 (2.5) years of follow-up (44 individuals [0.7% of cohort]; incidence 0.22 events per 100 person-years). Larger initial aortic size was associated with higher risk of AD and all-cause death in multivariable models, with an inflection point in risk at 6.0 cm. Estimated adjusted risks of AD within 5 years were 0.3% (95% CI, 0.3-0.7), 0.6% (95% CI, 0.4-1.3), 1.5% (95% CI, 1.2-3.9), 3.6% (95% CI, 1.8-12.8), and 10.5% (95% CI, 2.7-44.3) in patients with TAA size of 4.0 to 4.4 cm, 4.5 to 4.9 cm, 5.0 to 5.4 cm, 5.5 to 5.9 cm, and 6.0 cm or larger, respectively, in time-updated models. Rates of the composite outcome of AD and all-cause death were higher than for AD alone, but a similar inflection point for increased risk was observed at 6.0 cm.

Conclusions and Relevance

In a large sociodemographically diverse cohort of patients with TAA, absolute risk of aortic dissection was low but increased with larger aortic sizes after adjustment for potential confounders and competing risks. Our data support current consensus guidelines recommending prophylactic surgery in nonsyndromic individuals with TAA at a 5.5-cm threshold.