Dynamic risk assessment to improve quality of care in patients with atrial fibrillation: the 7th AFNET/EHRA Consensus Conference

Atrial fibrillation burden: a new outcome predictor and therapeutic target

Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia, is not a dichotomous disease trait. Technological innovations enable long-term rhythm monitoring in many patients and can estimate AF burden. These technologies are already used to detect and monitor AF. This review describes the relation between AF burden and outcomes and potential effects of AF burden reduction. A lower AF burden is associated with a lower risk of stroke and heart failure in patients with AF: stroke risk without anticoagulation is lower in patients with device-detected AF and a low AF burden (stroke rate 1%/year) than in patients with persistent and permanent AF (stroke rate 3%/year). Paroxysmal AF shows intermediate stroke rates (2%/year). Atrial fibrillation burden-reducing interventions can reduce cardiovascular outcomes in patients with AF: early rhythm control reduces cardiovascular events including stroke and heart failure in patients with recently diagnosed AF and cardiovascular conditions. In patients with heart failure and AF, early rhythm control and AF ablation, interventions that reduce AF burden, reduce mortality and heart failure events. Recent technological innovations allow to estimate AF burden in clinical care, creating opportunities and challenges. While evidence remains limited, the existing data already suggest that AF burden reduction could be a therapeutic goal. In addition to anticoagulation and treatment of cardiovascular conditions, AF burden reduction emerges as a therapeutic goal. Future research will define the AF burden that constitutes a relevant risk of stroke and heart failure. Technologies quantifying AF burden need careful validation to advance the field.

The Ablate-by-LAWT multicentre prospective study: Personalized paroxysmal atrial fibrillation ablation with ablation index adapted to local left atrial wall thickness

BACKGROUND

Personalized radiofrequency (RF) ablation for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF), adapting the ablation index (AI) to local left atrial wall thickness (LAWT), proved to be highly efficient maintaining high arrhythmia-free survival rates. However, multicentre data are lacking. This multicentre, prospective, non-randomized study was conducted at 5 tertiary hospitals and sought to assess the safety, efficacy, and reproducibility of the LAWT-guided ablation for PAF.

METHODS

Consecutive patients referred for first-time PAF were prospectively enrolled. The LAWT maps were obtained from preprocedural multidetector computed tomography and integrated into the navigation system. AI was titrated according to the local LAWT, and the ablation line was personalized to avoid the thickest regions while encircling the pulmonary veins (PVs).

RESULTS

A total 109 patients (60.1 ± 9.4 years, 64.2% male) were enrolled. Median procedure time was 61.7 min (48.4-83.8), fluoroscopy time was 1.0 min (0.4-3.3), and RF time was 13.9 min (12.3-16.8). Median AI tailored to the local LAWT was 393 (374-412) for the anterior wall and 340 (315-378) for the posterior wall. Right and left PVs first-pass isolation was achieved in 89% and 91.7% of the patients, respectively. At 12-month follow-up, freedom from any atrial arrhythmia was 93.4% (95% CI 88.7-98.1), without differences across centres (P = 0.169). One patient experienced femoral artery pseudoaneurysm, with no other serious procedural-related complication.

CONCLUSION

The Ablate-by-LAWT study proved that LAWT-guided PV isolation for PAF is safe, effective, and efficient in a multicentre setting. Twelve-month recurrence-free survival exceeded 90% (NCT04218604).

Causes of death in patients with atrial fibrillation anticoagulated with rivaroxaban: a pooled analysis of XANTUS

AIMS

Anticoagulation can prevent stroke and prolong lives in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, anticoagulated patients with AF remain at risk of death. The aim of this study was to investigate the causes of death and factors associated with all-cause and cardiovascular death in the XANTUS population.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Causes of death occurring within a year after rivaroxaban initiation in patients in the XANTUS programme studies were adjudicated by a central adjudication committee and classified following international guidance. Baseline characteristics associated with all-cause or cardiovascular death were identified. Of 11 040 patients, 187 (1.7%) died. Almost half of these deaths were due to cardiovascular causes other than bleeding (n = 82, 43.9%), particularly heart failure (n = 38, 20.3%) and sudden or unwitnessed death (n = 24, 12.8%). Fatal stroke (n = 8, 4.3%), which was classified as a type of cardiovascular death, and fatal bleeding (n = 17, 9.1%) were less common causes of death. Independent factors associated with all-cause or cardiovascular death included age, AF type, body mass index, left ventricular ejection fraction, hospitalization at baseline, rivaroxaban dose, and anaemia.

CONCLUSION

The overall risk of death due to stroke or bleeding was low in XANTUS. Anticoagulated patients with AF remain at risk of death due to heart failure and sudden death. Potential interventions to reduce cardiovascular deaths in anticoagulated patients with AF require further investigation, e.g. early rhythm control therapy and AF ablation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS

NCT01606995, NCT01750788, NCT01800006.

Benefits of early rhythm control of atrial fibrillation

In contrast to current guidelines and earlier trials, recent studies demonstrated superiority of rhythm- over rate-control and challenged the strategy of "rate versus rhythm" therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation. These newer studies have started to shift the use of rhythm-control therapy from the symptom-driven therapy of current guidelines to a risk-reducing strategy aimed at restoring and maintaining sinus rhythm. This review discusses recent data and presents an overview on the current discourse: The concept of early rhythm control seems attractive. Patients with rhythm control may undergo less atrial remodeling compared to those with rate control. In addition, in EAST-AFNET 4 an outcome-reducing effect of rhythm control was achieved by delivering therapy with relatively few complications early after the initial AF diagnosis. Successful rhythm control therapy and most likely reduced AF burden, estimated by the presence of sinus rhythm at 12 months after randomization, explained most of the reduction in cardiovascular outcomes achieved by rhythm control. However, it is too early to call for early rhythm control for all AF patients. Rhythm control may raise concerns regarding the generalizability of trial results in routine practice involving important questions on the definition of "early" and "successful", and the relevant issue of antiarrhythmic drugs versus catheter ablation. Further information is required to select patients who will benefit from an early ablative or non-ablative rhythm management.

Chinese guidelines for the diagnosis and management of atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia, significantly impacting patients' quality of life and increasing the risk of death, stroke, heart failure, and dementia. Over the past two decades, there have been significant breakthroughs in AF risk prediction and screening, stroke prevention, rhythm control, catheter ablation, and integrated management. During this period, the scale, quality, and experience of AF management in China have greatly improved, providing a solid foundation for the development of the guidelines for the diagnosis and management of AF. To further promote standardized AF management, and apply new technologies and concepts to clinical practice timely and fully, the Chinese Society of Cardiology of Chinese Medical Association and the Heart Rhythm Committee of Chinese Society of Biomedical Engineering jointly developed the Chinese Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation. The guidelines comprehensively elaborated on various aspects of AF management and proposed the CHA2DS2‑VASc‑60 stroke risk score based on the characteristics of the Asian AF population. The guidelines also reevaluated the clinical application of AF screening, emphasized the significance of early rhythm control, and highlighted the central role of catheter ablation in rhythm control.

Association of atrial mechanical dispersion with atrial fibrillation recurrence following catheter ablation: results of the ASTRA-AF pilot study

AIMS

For patients with symptomatic drug-refractory atrial fibrillation (AF), catheter ablation to achieve rhythm control is an important therapeutic option. The atrial mechanical dispersion measured as standard deviation of the time to peak strain (SD-TPS) is associated with the risk of AF recurrence following catheter ablation.

METHODS

The study cohort prospectively enrolled n = 132 consecutive patients with paroxysmal (n = 88) or persistent AF (n = 44) presenting for de novo pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) and followed for 1 year. We related left atrial (LA) volume, LA ejection fraction, SD-TPS, and global longitudinal strain of the left ventricle and clinical variables (sex, age, and type of AF) to AF recurrence.

RESULTS

Kaplan-Meier curves showed higher AF recurrence rate with an increase of SD-TPS with the calculated cut-off of 38.6 ms. Uni- and multivariable Cox regression analysis could show that SD-TPS had the highest relevance regarding AF recurrence with a HR of 1.05 (95% CI, 1.01; 1.09, p = 0.01) and HR of 1.05 (95% CI, 1.01; 1.09, p = 0.02) per 10 ms increase. In the additional analyses for the model including the clinical variables age, sex, and type of AF with paroxysmal or persisting AF, SD-TPS did only show a trend and after adjusting for covariates, SD-TPS showed a HR of 1.04 (95% CI, 0.99; 1.09, p = 0.09) per 10 ms increase.

CONCLUSION

Atrial mechanical dispersion was associated with recurrent AF.

Quality indicators in atrial fibrillation ablation (RIQAFA). A national registry from the Portuguese Association of Arrhythmology, Pacing and Electrophysiology (APAPE)

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained arrhythmia, with significant burden for patients. Catheter ablation is safe and superior for symptom improvement. The purpose of this work was to assess how clinical practice compares with current scientific evidence and quality indicators for AF ablation.

METHODS

The Portuguese Association of Arrhythmology, Pacing and Electrophysiology conducted a prospective registry among Portuguese centers to assess clinical practice regarding management of patients referred for ablation and the methodology used in the procedures and related outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 337 patients were referred for ablation, 102 (37.91%) female, age 65 (56-70.8) years. The median CHADS2-VaSC2 thromboembolic risk score was 2 (1-3), and 308 (92.49%) were on anticoagulants. AF was mainly paroxysmal (224, 66.97%) and symptomatic (mEHRA score 3; 2-3). Before ablation most patients (273, 81.49%) underwent cardiac computed tomography and only 24 (7.36%) procedures were performed with uninterrupted anticoagulation. For ablation, Carto® (194; 59.15%) and Ensite® (55; 16.77%) were mainly used, and the preferential strategy was pulmonary vein isolation (316; 94.61%). Acute complications occurred in five (1.49%) patients, while most had symptom improvement at one month (200; 86.21%), sustained at one year. There were 40 (12.6%) relapses within 30 days and 19 (26.39%) at one year.

CONCLUSIONS

In a population of patients with AF referred for ablation in Portuguese centers, patient management is provided according to the best scientific evidence and there is a high standard of practice with respect to the quality of AF ablation practice.

Longer and better lives for patients with atrial fibrillation: the 9th AFNET/EHRA consensus conference

AIMS

Recent trial data demonstrate beneficial effects of active rhythm management in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and support the concept that a low arrhythmia burden is associated with a low risk of AF-related complications. The aim of this document is to summarize the key outcomes of the 9th AFNET/EHRA Consensus Conference of the Atrial Fibrillation NETwork (AFNET) and the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Eighty-three international experts met in Münster for 2 days in September 2023. Key findings are as follows: (i) Active rhythm management should be part of the default initial treatment for all suitable patients with AF. (ii) Patients with device-detected AF have a low burden of AF and a low risk of stroke. Anticoagulation prevents some strokes and also increases major but non-lethal bleeding. (iii) More research is needed to improve stroke risk prediction in patients with AF, especially in those with a low AF burden. Biomolecules, genetics, and imaging can support this. (iv) The presence of AF should trigger systematic workup and comprehensive treatment of concomitant cardiovascular conditions. (v) Machine learning algorithms have been used to improve detection or likely development of AF. Cooperation between clinicians and data scientists is needed to leverage the potential of data science applications for patients with AF.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with AF and a low arrhythmia burden have a lower risk of stroke and other cardiovascular events than those with a high arrhythmia burden. Combining active rhythm control, anticoagulation, rate control, and therapy of concomitant cardiovascular conditions can improve the lives of patients with AF.

Chinese Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia, significantly impacting patients' quality of life and increasing the risk of death, stroke, heart failure, and dementia. Over the past two decades, there have been significant breakthroughs in AF risk prediction and screening, stroke prevention, rhythm control, catheter ablation, and integrated management. During this period, the scale, quality, and experience of AF management in China have greatly improved, providing a solid foundation for the development of guidelines for the diagnosis and management of AF. To further promote standardized AF management, and apply new technologies and concepts to clinical practice in a timely and comprehensive manner, the Chinese Society of Cardiology of the Chinese Medical Association and the Heart Rhythm Committee of the Chinese Society of Biomedical Engineering have jointly developed the Chinese Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation. The guidelines have comprehensively elaborated on various aspects of AF management and proposed the CHA2DS2-VASc-60 stroke risk score based on the characteristics of AF in the Asian population. The guidelines have also reevaluated the clinical application of AF screening, emphasized the significance of early rhythm control, and highlighted the central role of catheter ablation in rhythm control.

Assessing left atrial intramyocardial fat infiltration from computerized tomography angiography in patients with atrial fibrillation

AIMS

Epicardial adipose tissue might promote atrial fibrillation (AF) in several ways, including infiltrating the underlying atrial myocardium. However, the role of this potential mechanism has been poorly investigated. The aim of this study is to evaluate the presence of left atrial (LA) infiltrated adipose tissue (inFAT) by analysing multi-detector computer tomography (MDCT)-derived three-dimensional (3D) fat infiltration maps and to compare the extent of LA inFAT between patients without AF history, with paroxysmal, and with persistent AF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Sixty consecutive patients with AF diagnosis (30 persistent and 30 paroxysmal) were enrolled and compared with 20 age-matched control; MDCT-derived images were post-processed to obtain 3D LA inFAT maps for all patients. Volume (mL) and mean signal intensities [(Hounsfield Units (HU)] of inFAT (HU -194; -5), dense inFAT (HU -194; -50), and fat-myocardial admixture (HU -50; -5) were automatically computed by the software. inFAT volume was significantly different across the three groups (P = 0.009), with post-hoc pairwise comparisons showing a significant increase in inFAT volume in persistent AF compared to controls (P = 0.006). Dense inFAT retained a significant difference also after correcting for body mass index (P = 0.028). In addition, more negative inFAT radiodensity values were found in AF patients. Regional distribution analysis showed a significantly higher regional distribution of LA inFAT at left and right superior pulmonary vein antra in AF patients.

CONCLUSION

Persistent forms of AF are associated with greater degree of LA intramyocardial adipose infiltration, independently of body mass index. Compared to controls, AF patients present higher LA inFAT volume at left and right superior pulmonary vein antra.

Heart Failure, Female Sex, and Atrial Fibrillation Are the Main Drivers of Human Atrial Cardiomyopathy: Results From the CATCH ME Consortium

BACKGROUND

Atrial cardiomyopathy (atCM) is an emerging prognostic factor in cardiovascular disease. Fibrotic remodeling, cardiomyocyte hypertrophy, and capillary density are hallmarks of atCM. The contribution of etiological factors and atrial fibrillation (AF) to the development of differential atCM phenotypes has not been quantified. This study aimed to evaluate the association between histological features of atCM and the clinical phenotype.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We examined left atrial (LA, n=95) and right atrial (RA, n=76) appendages from a European cohort of patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Quantification of histological atCM features was performed following wheat germ agglutinin/CD31/vimentin staining. The contributions of AF, heart failure, sex, and age to histological characteristics were determined with multiple linear regression models. Persistent AF was associated with increased endomysial fibrosis (LA: +1.13±0.47 μm, P=0.038; RA: +0.94±0.38 μm, P=0.041), whereas total extracellular matrix content was not. Men had larger cardiomyocytes (LA: +1.92±0.72 μm, P<0.001), while women had more endomysial fibrosis (LA: +0.99±0.56 μm, P=0.003). Patients with heart failure showed more endomysial fibrosis (LA: +1.85±0.48 μm, P<0.001) and extracellular matrix content (LA: +3.07±1.29%, P=0.016), and a higher capillary density (LA: +0.13±0.06, P=0.007) and size (LA: +0.46±0.22 μm, P=0.044). Fuzzy k-means clustering of histological features identified 2 subtypes of atCM: 1 characterized by enhanced endomysial fibrosis (LA: +3.17 μm, P<0.001; RA: +2.86 μm, P<0.001), extracellular matrix content (LA: +3.53%, P<0.001; RA: +6.40%, P<0.001) and fibroblast density (LA: +4.38%, P<0.001), and 1 characterized by cardiomyocyte hypertrophy (LA: +1.16 μm, P=0.008; RA: +2.58 μm, P<0.001). Patients with fibrotic atCM were more frequently female (LA: odds ratio [OR], 1.33, P=0.002; RA: OR, 1.54, P=0.004), with persistent AF (LA: OR, 1.22, P=0.036) or heart failure (LA: OR, 1.62, P<0.001). Hypertrophic features were more common in men (LA: OR=1.33, P=0.002; RA: OR, 1.54, P=0.004).

CONCLUSIONS

Fibrotic atCM is associated with female sex, persistent AF, and heart failure, while hypertrophic features are more common in men.

Mortality and ventricular arrhythmias in patients on d,l-sotalol for rhythm control of atrial fibrillation: A nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

Use of d,l-sotalol for rhythm control in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) has raised safety concerns. Previous randomized studies are few and not designed for mortality outcome.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to compare the incidences of mortality and ventricular arrhythmias in AF patients treated with d,l-sotalol for rhythm control vs matched control patients treated with cardioselective beta-blockers.

METHODS

This population-based cohort study included AF patients from the Swedish National Patient Registry (2006-2017) who underwent rhythm control after a second cardioversion. Incidence rates (IRs) and adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for mortality and a composite endpoint of cardiac arrest/death and ventricular arrhythmias were calculated for the overall cohort and a 1:1 propensity score matched cohort of d,l-sotalol vs beta-blocker treatment.

RESULTS

Among patient treated with d,l-sotalol (n = 4987) and beta-blocker (n = 27,078) (mean follow-up 458 days), all-cause mortality was lower in patients treated with d,l-sotalol: IR 1.21; 95% confidence interval 0.95-1.52 vs 2.42 (2.26-2.60) deaths per 100 patient-years; aHR 0.66 (0.52-0.83). The difference in mortality persisted in the propensity score matched comparison (n = 4953 in each group): aHR 0.63 (0.48-0.86). No differences were observed in the composite outcome: IR in propensity cohorts 2.13 (1.78-2.52) vs 2.07 (1.73-2.53) events per 100 years; aHR 1.01 (0.78-1.29).

CONCLUSION

There was no excess mortality with d,l-sotalol compared with cardioselective beta-blockers in patients undergoing rhythm control treatment for AF after a second cardioversion. Our results indicate that the risk associated with d,l-sotalol treatment for AF can be mitigated by careful patient selection and strict adherence to follow-up protocols.

An angiopoietin 2, FGF23, and BMP10 biomarker signature differentiates atrial fibrillation from other concomitant cardiovascular conditions

Early detection of atrial fibrillation (AF) enables initiation of anticoagulation and early rhythm control therapy to reduce stroke, cardiovascular death, and heart failure. In a cross-sectional, observational study, we aimed to identify a combination of circulating biomolecules reflecting different biological processes to detect prevalent AF in patients with cardiovascular conditions presenting to hospital. Twelve biomarkers identified by reviewing literature and patents were quantified on a high-precision, high-throughput platform in 1485 consecutive patients with cardiovascular conditions (median age 69 years [Q1, Q3 60, 78]; 60% male). Patients had either known AF (45%) or AF ruled out by 7-day ECG-monitoring. Logistic regression with backward elimination and a neural network approach considering 7 key clinical characteristics and 12 biomarker concentrations were applied to a randomly sampled discovery cohort (n = 933) and validated in the remaining patients (n = 552). In addition to age, sex, and body mass index (BMI), BMP10, ANGPT2, and FGF23 identified patients with prevalent AF (AUC 0.743 [95% CI 0.712, 0.775]). These circulating biomolecules represent distinct pathways associated with atrial cardiomyopathy and AF. Neural networks identified the same variables as the regression-based approach. The validation using regression yielded an AUC of 0.719 (95% CI 0.677, 0.762), corroborated using deep neural networks (AUC 0.784 [95% CI 0.745, 0.822]). Age, sex, BMI and three circulating biomolecules (BMP10, ANGPT2, FGF23) are associated with prevalent AF in unselected patients presenting to hospital. Findings should be externally validated. Results suggest that age and different disease processes approximated by these three biomolecules contribute to AF in patients. Our findings have the potential to improve screening programs for AF after external validation.

The influence of atrial high-rate episodes on stroke and cardiovascular death: an update

Atrial high-rate episodes (AHRE) are atrial tachyarrhythmias detected by continuous rhythm monitoring by pacemakers, defibrillators, or implantable cardiac monitors. Atrial high-rate episodes occur in 10-30% of elderly patients without atrial fibrillation. However, it remains unclear whether the presence of these arrhythmias has therapeutic consequences. The presence of AHRE increases the risk of stroke compared with patients without AHRE. Oral anticoagulation would have the potential to reduce the risk of stroke in patients with AHRE but is also associated with a rate of major bleeding of ∼2%/year. The stroke rate in patients with AHRE appears to be lower than the stroke rate in patients with atrial fibrillation. Wearables like smart-watches will increase the absolute number of patients in whom atrial arrhythmias are detected. It remains unclear whether anticoagulation is effective and, equally important, safe in patients with AHRE. Two randomized clinical trials, NOAH-AFNET6 and ARTESiA, are expected to report soon. They will provide much-needed information on the efficacy and safety of oral anticoagulation in patients with AHRE.

Personalized pulmonary vein antrum isolation guided by left atrial wall thickness for persistent atrial fibrillation

AIMS

Pulmonary vein (PV) antrum isolation proved to be effective for treating persistent atrial fibrillation (PeAF). We sought to investigate the results of a personalized approach aimed at adapting the ablation index (AI) to the local left atrial wall thickness (LAWT) in a cohort of consecutive patients with PeAF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Consecutive patients referred for PeAF first ablation were prospectively enrolled. The LAWT three-dimensional maps were obtained from pre-procedure multidetector computed tomography and integrated into the navigation system. Ablation index was titrated according to the local LAWT, and the ablation line was personalized to avoid the thickest regions while encircling the PV antrum. A total of 121 patients (69.4% male, age 64.5 ± 9.5 years) were included. Procedure time was 57 min (IQR 50-67), fluoroscopy time was 43 s (IQR 20-71), and radiofrequency (RF) time was 16.5 min (IQR 14.3-18.4). The median AI tailored to the local LAWT was 387 (IQR 360-410) for the anterior wall and 335 (IQR 300-375) for the posterior wall. First-pass PV antrum isolation was obtained in 103 (85%) of the right PVs and 103 (85%) of the left PVs. Median LAWT values were higher for PVs without first-pass isolation as compared to the whole cohort (P = 0.02 for left PVs and P = 0.03 for right PVs). Recurrence-free survival was 79% at 12 month follow-up.

CONCLUSION

In this prospective study, LAWT-guided PV antrum isolation for PeAF was effective and efficient, requiring low procedure, fluoroscopy, and RF time. A randomized trial comparing the LAWT-guided ablation with the standard of practice is in progress (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05396534).

Edoxaban for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation and age-adjusted predictors of clinical outcomes in routine clinical care

AIMS

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) treated with oral anticoagulation still suffer from cardiovascular complications including cardiovascular death, stroke, and major bleeding. To identify risk factors for predicting stroke and bleeding outcomes in anticoagulated patients, we assessed 2-year outcomes in patients with AF treated with edoxaban in routine care. We also report the age-adjusted risk predictors of clinical outcomes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The Edoxaban Treatment in Routine Clinical Practice for Patients With Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (ETNA-AF) Europe (NCT02944019) is a prospective, multi-centre, post-authorisation, observational study with an overall 4-year follow-up conducted in 825 centres enrolling edoxaban-treated patients in 10 European countries. Of the 13 133 patients with AF (mean age: 73.6 ± 9.5 years), 5682 (43.3%) were female. At the 2-year follow-up, 9017/13 133 patients were still on edoxaban; 1830 discontinued treatment including 937 who died (annualised event rate of all-cause death was 3.87%). 518 (2.14%) patients died of cardiovascular causes; 234 (0.97%) experienced major bleeding and 168 (0.70%) experienced stroke or systemic embolic events (SEE). Intracranial haemorrhage was noted in 49 patients (0.20%). History of transient ischaemic attack (TIA) at baseline was the strongest predictor of ischaemic stroke or SEE (Wald χ2: 73.63; P < 0.0001). Low kidney function at baseline was the strongest predictor of major bleeding (Wald χ2: 30.68; P < 0.0001). History of heart failure (HF) was the strongest predictor of all-cause (Wald χ2: 146.99; P < 0.0001) and cardiovascular death (Wald χ2: 100.38; P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

Patients treated with edoxaban in ETNA-AF-Europe reported low 2-year event rates in unselected AF patients. Prior stroke, reduced kidney function, and HF identify patients at high risk of stroke, bleeding and all-cause/cardiovascular death, respectively.

Familial atrial fibrillation mutation M1875T-SCN5A increases early sodium current and dampens the effect of flecainide

AIMS

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia. Pathogenic variants in genes encoding ion channels are associated with familial AF. The point mutation M1875T in the SCN5A gene, which encodes the α-subunit of the cardiac sodium channel Nav1.5, has been associated with increased atrial excitability and familial AF in patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We designed a new murine model carrying the Scn5a-M1875T mutation enabling us to study the effects of the Nav1.5 mutation in detail in vivo and in vitro using patch clamp and microelectrode recording of atrial cardiomyocytes, optical mapping, electrocardiogram, echocardiography, gravimetry, histology, and biochemistry. Atrial cardiomyocytes from newly generated adult Scn5a-M1875T+/- mice showed a selective increase in the early (peak) cardiac sodium current, larger action potential amplitude, and a faster peak upstroke velocity. Conduction slowing caused by the sodium channel blocker flecainide was less pronounced in Scn5a-M1875T+/- compared to wildtype atria. Overt hypertrophy or heart failure in Scn5a-M1875T+/- mice could be excluded.

CONCLUSION

The Scn5a-M1875T point mutation causes gain-of-function of the cardiac sodium channel. Our results suggest increased atrial peak sodium current as a potential trigger for increased atrial excitability.

Animal models and animal-free innovations for cardiovascular research: current status and routes to be explored. Consensus document of the ESC Working Group on Myocardial Function and the ESC Working Group on Cellular Biology of the Heart

Cardiovascular diseases represent a major cause of morbidity and mortality, necessitating research to improve diagnostics, and to discover and test novel preventive and curative therapies, all of which warrant experimental models that recapitulate human disease. The translation of basic science results to clinical practice is a challenging task, in particular for complex conditions such as cardiovascular diseases, which often result from multiple risk factors and comorbidities. This difficulty might lead some individuals to question the value of animal research, citing the translational 'valley of death', which largely reflects the fact that studies in rodents are difficult to translate to humans. This is also influenced by the fact that new, human-derived in vitro models can recapitulate aspects of disease processes. However, it would be a mistake to think that animal models do not represent a vital step in the translational pathway as they do provide important pathophysiological insights into disease mechanisms particularly on an organ and systemic level. While stem cell-derived human models have the potential to become key in testing toxicity and effectiveness of new drugs, we need to be realistic, and carefully validate all new human-like disease models. In this position paper, we highlight recent advances in trying to reduce the number of animals for cardiovascular research ranging from stem cell-derived models to in situ modelling of heart properties, bioinformatic models based on large datasets, and state-of-the-art animal models, which show clinically relevant characteristics observed in patients with a cardiovascular disease. We aim to provide a guide to help researchers in their experimental design to translate bench findings to clinical routine taking the replacement, reduction, and refinement (3R) as a guiding concept.

Guidelines for assessment of cardiac electrophysiology and arrhythmias in small animals

Cardiac arrhythmias are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Although recent advances in cell-based models, including human-induced pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes (iPSC-CM), are contributing to our understanding of electrophysiology and arrhythmia mechanisms, preclinical animal studies of cardiovascular disease remain a mainstay. Over the past several decades, animal models of cardiovascular disease have advanced our understanding of pathological remodeling, arrhythmia mechanisms, and drug effects and have led to major improvements in pacing and defibrillation therapies. There exist a variety of methodological approaches for the assessment of cardiac electrophysiology and a plethora of parameters may be assessed with each approach. This guidelines article will provide an overview of the strengths and limitations of several common techniques used to assess electrophysiology and arrhythmia mechanisms at the whole animal, whole heart, and tissue level with a focus on small animal models. We also define key electrophysiological parameters that should be assessed, along with their physiological underpinnings, and the best methods with which to assess these parameters.

Attaining sinus rhythm mediates improved outcome with early rhythm control therapy of atrial fibrillation: the EAST - AFNET 4 trial

Aims

A strategy of systematic, early rhythm control (ERC) improves cardiovascular outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). It is not known how this outcome-reducing effect is mediated.

Methods and results

Using the Early treatment of Atrial Fibrillation for Stroke prevention Trial (EAST—AFNET 4) data set, potential mediators of the effect of ERC were identified in the total study population at 12-month follow up and further interrogated by use of a four-way decomposition of the treatment effect in an exponential model predicting future primary outcome events. Fourteen potential mediators of ERC were identified at the 12-month visit. Of these, sinus rhythm at 12 months explained 81% of the treatment effect of ERC compared with usual care during the remainder of follow up (4.1 years). In patients not in sinus rhythm at 12 months, ERC did not reduce future cardiovascular outcomes (hazard ratio 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.65–1.67). Inclusion of AF recurrence in the model only explained 31% of the treatment effect, and inclusion of systolic blood pressure at 12 months only 10%. There was no difference in outcomes in patients who underwent AF ablation compared with those who did not undergo AF ablation.

Conclusion

The effectiveness of early rhythm control is mediated by the presence of sinus rhythm at 12 months in the EAST-AFNET 4 trial. Clinicians implementing ERC should aim for rapid and sustained restoration of sinus rhythm in patients with recently diagnosed AF and cardiovascular comorbidities.

Early diagnosis and better rhythm management to improve outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation: the 8th AFNET/EHRA consensus conference

Despite marked progress in the management of atrial fibrillation (AF), detecting AF remains difficult and AF-related complications cause unacceptable morbidity and mortality even on optimal current therapy. This document summarizes the key outcomes of the 8th AFNET/EHRA Consensus Conference of the Atrial Fibrillation NETwork (AFNET) and the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA). Eighty-three international experts met in Hamburg for 2 days in October 2021. Results of the interdisciplinary, hybrid discussions in breakout groups and the plenary based on recently published and unpublished observations are summarized in this consensus paper to support improved care for patients with AF by guiding prevention, individualized management, and research strategies. The main outcomes are (i) new evidence supports a simple, scalable, and pragmatic population-based AF screening pathway; (ii) rhythm management is evolving from therapy aimed at improving symptoms to an integrated domain in the prevention of AF-related outcomes, especially in patients with recently diagnosed AF; (iii) improved characterization of atrial cardiomyopathy may help to identify patients in need for therapy; (iv) standardized assessment of cognitive function in patients with AF could lead to improvement in patient outcomes; and (v) artificial intelligence (AI) can support all of the above aims, but requires advanced interdisciplinary knowledge and collaboration as well as a better medico-legal framework. Implementation of new evidence-based approaches to AF screening and rhythm management can improve outcomes in patients with AF. Additional benefits are possible with further efforts to identify and target atrial cardiomyopathy and cognitive impairment, which can be facilitated by AI.

Prevalence and determinants of atrial fibrillation progression in paroxysmal atrial fibrillation

OBJECTIVE

Atrial fibrillation (AF) often progresses from paroxysmal AF (PAF) to more permanent forms. To improve personalised medicine, we aim to develop a new AF progression risk prediction model in patients with PAF.

METHODS

In this interim-analysis of the Reappraisal of AF: Interaction Between HyperCoagulability, Electrical Remodelling, and Vascular Destabilisation in the Progression of AF study, patients with PAF undergoing extensive phenotyping at baseline and continuous rhythm monitoring during follow-up of ≥1 year were analysed. AF progression was defined as (1) progression to persistent or permanent AF or (2) progression of PAF with >3% burden increase. Multivariable analysis was done to identify predictors of AF progression.

RESULTS

Mean age was 65 (58-71) years, 179 (43%) were female. Follow-up was 2.2 (1.6-2.8) years, 51 of 417 patients (5.5%/year) showed AF progression. Multivariable analysis identified, PR interval, impaired left atrial function, mitral valve regurgitation and waist circumference to be associated with AF progression. Adding blood biomarkers improved the model (C-statistic from 0.709 to 0.830) and showed male sex, lower levels of factor XIIa:C1-esterase inhibitor and tissue factor pathway inhibitor, and higher levels of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 and peptidoglycan recognition protein 1 were associated with AF progression.

CONCLUSION

In patients with PAF, AF progression occurred in 5.5%/year. Predictors for progression included markers for atrial remodelling, sex, mitral valve regurgitation, waist circumference and biomarkers associated with coagulation, inflammation, cardiomyocyte stretch and atherosclerosis. These prediction models may help to determine risk of AF progression and treatment targets, but validation is needed.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02726698.

Use and Prescription of Direct Oral Anticoagulants in Older and Frail Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: A Multidisciplinary Consensus Document

In the last twelve years the clinical management of patients with atrial fibrillation has been revolutionised by the introduction of direct oral anticoagulants. Despite the large amount of evidence produced, some populations remain relatively poorly explored regarding the effectiveness and safety of direct oral anticoagulants, such as the oldest and/or frailest individuals. Frailty is clinical syndrome characterized by a reduction of functions and physiological reserves which results in individuals having higher vulnerability. While current evidence underlines a relationship between atrial fibrillation and frailty, particularly in determining a higher risk of adverse outcomes, data regarding effectiveness and safety of direct oral anticoagulants in frailty atrial fibrillation patients are still lacking, leaving uncertainty about how to guide prescription in this specific subgroup. On these premises, this multidisciplinary consensus document explains why it would be useful to integrate the clinical evaluation performed through comprehensive geriatric assessment to gather further elements to guide prescription of direct oral anticoagulants in such a high-risk group of patients.

Self-Reported Mobile Health-Based Risk Factor and CHA2DS2-VASc-Score Assessment in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: TeleCheck-AF Results

INTRODUCTION

The TeleCheck-AF approach is an on-demand mobile health (mHealth) infrastructure incorporating mobile app-based heart rate and rhythm monitoring through teleconsultation. We evaluated feasibility and accuracy of self-reported mHealth-based AF risk factors and CHA2DS2-VASc-score in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients managed within this approach.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Consecutive patients from eight international TeleCheck-AF centers were asked to complete an app-based 10-item questionnaire related to risk factors, associated conditions and CHA2DS2-VASc-score components. Patient's medical history was retrieved from electronic health records (EHR).

RESULTS

Among 994 patients, 954 (96%) patients (38% female, median age 65 years) completed the questionnaire and were included in this analysis. The accuracy of self-reported assessment was highest for pacemaker and anticoagulation treatment and lowest for heart failure and arrhythmias. Patients who knew that AF increases the stroke risk, more often had a 100% or ≥80% correlation between EHR- and app-based results compared to those who did not know (27 vs. 14% or 84 vs. 77%, P = 0.001). Thromboembolic events were more often reported in app (vs. EHR) in all countries, whereas higher self-reported hypertension and anticoagulant treatment were observed in Germany and heart failure in the Netherlands. If the app-based questionnaire alone was used for clinical decision-making on anticoagulation initiation, 26% of patients would have been undertreated and 6.1%-overtreated.

CONCLUSION

Self-reported mHealth-based assessment of AF risk factors is feasible. It shows high accuracy of pacemaker and anticoagulation treatment, nevertheless, displays limited accuracy for some of the CHA2DS2-VASc-score components. Direct health care professional assessment of risk factors remains indispensable to ensure high quality clinical-decision making.

Device-detected atrial high rate episodes and the risk of stroke/thrombo-embolism and atrial fibrillation incidence: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Atrial High Rate Episodes (AHRE) are asymptomatic atrial tachy-arrhythmias detected through continuous monitoring with a cardiac implantable electronic device. The risks of stroke/Thromboembolic (TE) events and incident clinical Atrial Fibrillation (AF) associated with AHRE varies markedly.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the relationship between AHRE and TE events, and between AHRE and incident clinical AF.

METHODS

This systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted following the PRISMA recommendations. PubMed, Scopus, and Google Scholar were searched from inception to 18/02/2021 for studies reporting TE events and incident clinical AF in patients with AHRE, as compared with patients without.

RESULTS

Ten out of 8081 records fulfilled the inclusion criteria, for a total of 37 266 patients. Seven out of ten studies excluded patients with prior history of clinical AF (4961 patients), embracing the most recent definition of AHRE. The risk ratio (RR) for TE events in AHRE patients was 2.13 (95% CI: 1.53-2.95, I²: 0%). The incidence of clinical AF was reported in four studies excluding patients with a history of clinical AF (3574 patients). The RR for incident clinical AF was 3.34 (95%CI: 1.89-5.90, I²: 73%).

CONCLUSIONS

AHRE are significantly associated with systemic thromboembolism and incident clinical AF. Further studies are needed to improve patients' risk stratification and management.

Atrial Cardiomyopathy: Pathophysiology and Clinical Consequences

Around the world there are 33.5 million patients suffering from atrial fibrillation (AF) with an annual increase of 5 million cases. Most AF patients have an established form of an atrial cardiomyopathy. The concept of atrial cardiomyopathy was introduced in 2016. Thus, therapy of underlying diseases and atrial tissue changes appear as a cornerstone of AF therapy. Furthermore, therapy or prevention of atrial endocardial changes has the potential to reduce atrial thrombogenesis and thereby cerebral stroke. The present manuscript will summarize the underlying pathophysiology and remodeling processes observed in the development of an atrial cardiomyopathy, thrombogenesis, and atrial fibrillation. In particular, the impact of oxidative stress, inflammation, diabetes, and obesity will be addressed.

Comparison of HAS-BLED and ORBIT Bleeding Risk Scores in AF Patients treated with NOACs: A Report from the ESC-EHRA EORP-AF General Long-Term Registry

INTRODUCTION

Bleeding risk assessment is recommended in guidelines for the management of atrial fibrillation (AF). HAS-BLED score was proposed prior to non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) and has been suggested that the ORBIT score may be superior in predicting bleeds in NOAC users. We aimed to compare the HAS-BLED and ORBIT scores in contemporary AF patients treated with NOACs.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We analyzed patients enrolled in the ESC-EHRA EORP-AF General Long-Term Registry. HAS-BLED and ORBIT scores were computed based on original schemes. The primary outcome was the occurrence of Major Bleeding (MB). A total of 3018 patients (median age 70; 39.6% females) were included: median [IQR] HAS-BLED and ORBIT scores were 1 [1-2] and 1 [0-2], respectively; 356 (11.8%) patients were at high risk for MB using HAS-BLED (≥3) and 123 (4.1%) using ORBIT (≥4). Overall, 60 (2.0%) MB events were recorded, with an incidence of 1.1 per 100 patient-years.Both HAS-BLED and ORBIT were associated with outcome, modestly predicting MB (AUC 0.653, 95% CI 0.593-0.714 and AUC 0.601, 95% CI 0.526-0.677, respectively). Calibration plots showed that both scores were poorly calibrated, particularly the ORBIT score, which showed consistent poorer calibration. Time-dependent reclassification analysis showed a trend towards incorrect lower risk reclassification using ORBIT compared to HAS-BLED.

CONCLUSION

In this real-life contemporary cohort of AF patients treated with NOACs, the ORBIT score did not provide reclassification improvement, showing even poorer calibration compared to HAS-BLED. Our findings do not support the preferential use of ORBIT in NOAC-treated AF patients.

Effects of genetic background, sex, and age on murine atrial electrophysiology

AIMS

Genetically altered mice are powerful models to investigate mechanisms of atrial arrhythmias, but normal ranges for murine atrial electrophysiology have not been robustly characterized.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We analyzed results from 221 electrophysiological (EP) studies in isolated, Langendorff-perfused hearts of wildtype mice (114 female, 107 male) from 2.5 to 17.7 months (mean 7 months) with different genetic backgrounds (C57BL/6, FVB/N, MF1, 129/Sv, Swiss agouti). Left atrial monophasic action potential duration (LA-APD), interatrial activation time (IA-AT), and atrial effective refractory period (ERP) were summarized at different pacing cycle lengths (PCLs). Factors influencing atrial electrophysiology including genetic background, sex, and age were determined. LA-APD70 was 18 ± 0.5 ms, atrial ERP was 27 ± 0.8 ms, and IA-AT was 17 ± 0.5 ms at 100 ms PCL. LA-APD was longer with longer PCL (+17% from 80 to 120 ms PCL for APD70), while IA-AT decreased (-7% from 80 to 120 ms PCL). Female sex was associated with longer ERP (+14% vs. males). Genetic background influenced atrial electrophysiology: LA-APD70 (-20% vs. average) and atrial ERP (-25% vs. average) were shorter in Swiss agouti background compared to others. LA-APD70 (+25% vs. average) and IA-AT (+44% vs. average) were longer in 129/Sv mice. Atrial ERP was longer in FVB/N (+34% vs. average) and in younger experimental groups below 6 months of age.

CONCLUSION

This work defines normal ranges for murine atrial EP parameters. Genetic background has a profound effect on these parameters, at least of the magnitude as those of sex and age. These results can inform the experimental design and interpretation of murine atrial electrophysiology.

Early Rhythm Control Therapy in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation and Heart Failure

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Even on optimal therapy, many patients with heart failure and atrial fibrillation experience cardiovascular complications. Additional treatments are needed to reduce these events, especially in patients with heart failure and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction.

[Atrial fibrillation]

Atrial fibrillation is frequent and has severe sequelae, such as stroke, cardiovascular death and cardiac insufficiency. These sequelae can be effectively reduced by anticoagulants, a meticulous recognition and treatment of cardiovascular comorbidities and an early rhythm-preserving treatment. Catheter ablation leads to a better preservation of the sinus rhythm and in symptomatic patients to a better quality of life in comparison to treatment with antiarrhythmic agents. This should be included in the planning of early rhythm-maintaining treatment.

Cardiac autonomic function and cognitive performance in patients with atrial fibrillation

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with loss of cognition and dementia. Cardiac autonomic dysfunction has been linked to cognitive decline. We aimed to investigate if reduced cardiac autonomic function (CAF) is associated with cognitive impairment in AF patients.

Methods

Patients with paroxysmal, persistent and permanent AF were enrolled from a multicenter cohort study if they had AF (“AF group”) or sinus rhythm (“SR group”) on a baseline 5 min ECG recording. Parameters quantifying CAF (heart rate variability triangular index (HRVI), mean heart rate (MHR), RMSSD, SDNN, total power and power in the VLF, LF, HF ranges) were calculated. We used the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) to assess global cognitive function.

Results

1685 AF patients with a mean age of 73 ± 8 years, 29% females, were included. MoCA score was 24.5 ± 3.2 in the AF group (N = 710 patients) and 25.4 ± 3.2 in the SR group (N = 975 patients). After adjusting for multiple confounders, lower HRVI was associated with lower MoCA scores, both in the SR group [β = 0.049; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.016–0.081; p = 0.003] and in the AF group (β = 0.068; 95% CI 0.020–0.116; p = 0.006). In the AF group, higher MHR was associated with a poorer performance in the MoCA (β =  − 0.008; 95% CI − 0.014 to − 0.002; p = 0.014). We found no convincing evidence of association for other CAF parameters with cognition.

Conclusion

Our data suggest that impaired CAF is associated with worse cognitive performance in patients with AF. Among standard HRV parameters, HRVI might be the most promising ECG index.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02105844.

Graphic abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00392-021-01900-4.

[Update atrial fibrillation: the 2020 ESC guidelines and recent data on early rhythm control]

Atrial fibrillation (AF) can be a significant burden for patients as well as the health care system. Every third 55-year-old will develop AF. Despite improvements of disease management, a significant risk for cardiovascular events remains. The current AF guidelines of the European Society of Cardiology focus on an integrative therapy approach. The new algorithm "CC to ABC" comprises recommendations for diagnosis ("confirm" and "characterise") and treatment ("avoid stroke", "better symptom control", "comorbidities") of AF. Direct oral anticoagulants administered according to the CHA2DS2-VASc score remain the corner stones of stroke prevention. Besides the concept of heart rate control, rhythm control therapy like antiarrhythmic drugs or catheter ablation is recommended to relieve symptoms and in certain patient groups for the improvement of prognosis. Therapy of comorbidities and reduction of risk factors like hypertension, diabetes mellitus, obesity and obstructive sleep apnoea should be part of any comprehensive treatment approach. The results of the randomized, prospective EAST-AFNET 4 trial were published in August 2020. The trial shows that an early rhythm control therapy can lead to a reduction of cardiovascular mortality and incidence of stroke additionally to guideline-based AF management. Given the safety profile and potential positive effects of antiarrhythmic drugs and catheter ablation, early initiation of rhythm control therapy should be considered in every patient during the first months after diagnosis of AF.

ESC-Leitlinie 2020 zum Vorhofflimmern: Was ist neu, was ist wichtig, was ist zu tun?

Die aktuelle, 2020 erschienene Leitlinie der Europäischen Gesellschaft für Kardiologie zum Management von Vorhofflimmern gibt eine sehr gute Übersicht und aktuelle Empfehlungen zur Diagnostik und Therapie von Vorhofflimmern. Als Neuerung wurde das 4S-AF-Schema zur Charakterisierung von Vorhofflimmern eingeführt. Es berücksichtigt das Schlaganfallrisiko, den Schweregrad der Symptome, das Ausmaß der Vorhofflimmerlast und das elektrophysiologische Substrat. Außerdem wurde mit dem ABC-Modell ein einprägsamer Therapieleitfaden eingeführt. Er soll die strukturierte Behandlung von Patienten mit Vorhofflimmern erleichtern und umfasst die Themen Antikoagulation/Schlaganfallprävention, bessere Symptomkontrolle und das Management kardiovaskulärer Risikofaktoren sowie vorhandener Begleiterkrankungen. Die Empfehlungen zur Antikoagulation und medikamentösen antiarrhythmischen Therapie haben sich in den aktuellen Leitlinien nicht wesentlich geändert, wohingegen die Indikation zur Katheterablation heraufgestuft wurde.

Genetics of atrial fibrillation-practical applications for clinical management: if not now, when and how?

The prevalence and economic burden of atrial fibrillation (AF) are predicted to more than double over the next few decades. In addition to anticoagulation and treatment of concomitant cardiovascular conditions, early and standardized rhythm control therapy reduces cardiovascular outcomes as compared with a rate control approach, favouring the restoration, and maintenance of sinus rhythm safely. Current therapies for rhythm control of AF include antiarrhythmic drugs (AADs) and catheter ablation (CA). However, response in an individual patient is highly variable with some remaining free of AF for long periods on antiarrhythmic therapy, while others require repeat AF ablation within weeks. The limited success of rhythm control therapy for AF is in part related to incomplete understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms and our inability to predict responses in individual patients. Thus, a major knowledge gap is predicting which patients with AF are likely to respond to rhythm control approach. Over the last decade, tremendous progress has been made in defining the genetic architecture of AF with the identification of rare mutations in cardiac ion channels, signalling molecules, and myocardial structural proteins associated with familial (early-onset) AF. Conversely, genome-wide association studies have identified common variants at over 100 genetic loci and the development of polygenic risk scores has identified high-risk individuals. Although retrospective studies suggest that response to AADs and CA is modulated in part by common genetic variation, the development of a comprehensive clinical and genetic risk score may enable the translation of genetic data to the bedside care of AF patients. Given the economic impact of the AF epidemic, even small changes in therapeutic efficacy may lead to substantial improvements for patients and health care systems.

Quantification of fibroblast growth factor 23 and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide to identify patients with atrial fibrillation using a high-throughput platform: A validation study

BACKGROUND

Large-scale screening for atrial fibrillation (AF) requires reliable methods to identify at-risk populations. Using an experimental semi-quantitative biomarker assay, B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) were recently identified as the most suitable biomarkers for detecting AF in combination with simple morphometric parameters (age, sex, and body mass index [BMI]). In this study, we validated the AF model using standardised, high-throughput, high-sensitivity biomarker assays.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

For this study, 1,625 consecutive patients with either (1) diagnosed AF or (2) sinus rhythm with CHA2DS2-VASc score of 2 or more were recruited from a large teaching hospital in Birmingham, West Midlands, UK, between September 2014 and February 2018. Seven-day ambulatory ECG monitoring excluded silent AF. Patients with tachyarrhythmias apart from AF and incomplete cases were excluded. AF was diagnosed according to current clinical guidelines and confirmed by ECG. We developed a high-throughput, high-sensitivity assay for FGF23, quantified plasma N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and FGF23, and compared results to the previously used multibiomarker research assay. Data were fitted to the previously derived model, adjusting for differences in measurement platforms and known confounders (heart failure and chronic kidney disease). In 1,084 patients (46% with AF; median [Q1, Q3] age 70 [60, 78] years, median [Q1, Q3] BMI 28.8 [25.1, 32.8] kg/m2, 59% males), patients with AF had higher concentrations of NT-proBNP (median [Q1, Q3] per 100 pg/ml: with AF 12.00 [4.19, 30.15], without AF 4.25 [1.17, 15.70]; p < 0.001) and FGF23 (median [Q1, Q3] per 100 pg/ml: with AF 1.93 [1.30, 4.16], without AF 1.55 [1.04, 2.62]; p < 0.001). Univariate associations remained after adjusting for heart failure and estimated glomerular filtration rate, known confounders of NT-proBNP and FGF23. The fitted model yielded a C-statistic of 0.688 (95% CI 0.656, 0.719), almost identical to that of the derived model (C-statistic 0.691; 95% CI 0.638, 0.744). The key limitation is that this validation was performed in a cohort that is very similar demographically to the one used in model development, calling for further external validation.

CONCLUSIONS

Age, sex, and BMI combined with elevated NT-proBNP and elevated FGF23, quantified on a high-throughput platform, reliably identify patients with AF.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Registry IRAS ID 97753 Health Research Authority (HRA), United Kingdom.