Detecting population expansion and decline using microsatellites

Exact calculation of the expected SFS in structured populations

The Site Frequency Spectrum (SFS), summary statistic of the distribution of derived allele frequencies in a sample of DNA sequences, provides information about genetic variation and can be used to make population inferences. The exact calculation of the expected SFS in a panmictic population under the infinite-site model of mutation has been known in the Markovian coalescent theory for decades, but its generalization to the structured coalescent is hampered by the almost exponential growth of the states space. We show here how to obtain this expected SFS as the solution of a linear system. More precisely, we propose a complete algorithmic procedure, from how to build a suitable state space and sort it, to how to take advantage of the sparsity of the rate matrix and to solve numerically the linear system using an iterative method. We then build a specialization for the simplest case of the symmetrical n-island model to arrive at a ready-to-use software called SISiFS from which a demographic parameters inference framework could easily be developed.

Sequencing and characterizing human mitochondrial genomes in the biobank-based genomic research paradigm

Human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) harbors essential mutations linked to aging, neurodegenerative diseases, and complex muscle disorders. Due to its uniparental and haploid inheritance, mtDNA captures matrilineal evolutionary trajectories, playing a crucial role in population and medical genetics. However, critical questions about the genomic diversity patterns, inheritance models, and evolutionary and medical functions of mtDNA remain unresolved or underexplored, particularly in the transition from traditional genotyping to large-scale genomic analyses. This review summarizes recent advancements in data-driven genomic research and technological innovations that address these questions and clarify the biological impact of nuclear-mitochondrial segments (NUMTs) and mtDNA variants on human health, disease, and evolution. We propose a streamlined pipeline to comprehensively identify mtDNA and NUMT genomic diversity using advanced sequencing and computational technologies. Haplotype-resolved mtDNA sequencing and assembly can distinguish authentic mtDNA variants from NUMTs, reduce diagnostic inaccuracies, and provide clearer insights into heteroplasmy patterns and the authenticity of paternal inheritance. This review emphasizes the need for integrative multi-omics approaches and emerging long-read sequencing technologies to gain new insights into mutation mechanisms, the influence of heteroplasmy and paternal inheritance on mtDNA diversity and disease susceptibility, and the detailed functions of NUMTs.

Global meta-analysis shows action is needed to halt genetic diversity loss

Mitigating loss of genetic diversity is a major global biodiversity challenge1-4. To meet recent international commitments to maintain genetic diversity within species5,6, we need to understand relationships between threats, conservation management and genetic diversity change. Here we conduct a global analysis of genetic diversity change via meta-analysis of all available temporal measures of genetic diversity from more than three decades of research. We show that within-population genetic diversity is being lost over timescales likely to have been impacted by human activities, and that some conservation actions may mitigate this loss. Our dataset includes 628 species (animals, plants, fungi and chromists) across all terrestrial and most marine realms on Earth. Threats impacted two-thirds of the populations that we analysed, and less than half of the populations analysed received conservation management. Genetic diversity loss occurs globally and is a realistic prediction for many species, especially birds and mammals, in the face of threats such as land use change, disease, abiotic natural phenomena and harvesting or harassment. Conservation strategies designed to improve environmental conditions, increase population growth rates and introduce new individuals (for example, restoring connectivity or performing translocations) may maintain or even increase genetic diversity. Our findings underscore the urgent need for active, genetically informed conservation interventions to halt genetic diversity loss.

Effects of Social Structure on Effective Population Size Change Estimates

Most methods currently used to infer the "demographic history of species" interpret this expression as a history of population size changes. The detection, quantification, and dating of demographic changes often rely on the assumption that population structure can be neglected. However, most vertebrates are typically organized in populations subdivided into social groups that are usually ignored in the interpretation of genetic data. This could be problematic since an increasing number of studies have shown that population structure can generate spurious signatures of population size change. Here, we simulate microsatellite data from a species subdivided into social groups where reproduction occurs according to different mating systems (monogamy, polygynandry, and polygyny). We estimate the effective population size (N e) and quantify the effect of social structure on estimates of changes in N e. We analyze the simulated data with two widely used methods for demographic inference. The first approach, BOTTLENECK, tests whether the samples are at mutation-drift equilibrium and thus whether a single N e can be estimated. The second approach, msvar, aims at quantifying and dating changes in N e. We find that social structure may lead to signals of departure from mutation-drift equilibrium including signals of expansion and bottlenecks. We also find that expansion signals may be observed under simple stationary Wright-Fisher models with low diversity. Since small populations tend to characterize many endangered species, we stress that methods trying to infer N e should be interpreted with care and validated with simulated data incorporating information about structure. Spurious expansion signals due to social structure can mask critical population size changes. These can obscure true bottleneck events and be particularly problematic in endangered species.

Spatio-Temporal Changes in Effective Population Size in an Expanding Metapopulation of Eurasian Otters

Conservation efforts are leading to demographic growth and spatial expansion of some previously endangered species. However, past population bottlenecks or population size fluctuations can have lasting effects on effective population size (N e), even when census size (N c) appears large or recovered. The UK metapopulation of Eurasian otters (Lutra lutra) has a well-documented history of population recovery over recent decades, with indicators of presence (faeces and footprints) increasing in distribution and number over successive national surveys. To determine whether this increase in N c is reflected in increased N e, we analysed a large-scale microsatellite dataset (21 years: 1993-2014; 407 individuals) for signals of recent N e change using BOTTLENECK and LDNe, and evaluated potential biases associated with unaccounted spatial genetic structuring and inclusion of admixed genotypes. We obtained clear bottleneck signals in East England, and signals of recent population expansion in Wales and South West England in some analyses, consistent with national otter surveys and recent findings from whole-genome sequencing. Analyses that did not account for spatial genetic structuring yielded strong spurious signals of United Kingdom-wide population expansion, and N e estimates from these analyses were suppressed by a factor of 3-4. Inclusion of admixed individuals had weaker impacts on N e estimates, with overlapping 95% confidence intervals from different analyses. Notably, total N e summed across regions was small and well below the N e = 500 size deemed necessary for long-term population viability (sum of river basin district groups: 170.6, 95% C.I.: 102.1-348.3). Conclusions drawn from UK otter surveys, which had suggested a robust population close to panmixia, are therefore not supported by our genetic evidence. Our study highlights the value of including genetic monitoring of endangered or recovering species in monitoring plans, while also providing methodologically important information about N e estimation from real-world datasets.

Genetic diversity and population structure among native, naturalized, and invasive populations of the common yellow monkeyflower, Mimulus guttatus (Phrymaceae)

An ongoing controversy in invasion biology is the prevalence of colonizing plant populations that are able to establish and spread, while maintaining limited amounts of genetic variation. Invasive populations can be established through several routes including from a single source or from multiple introductions. The aim of this study was to examine genetic diversity in populations of Mimulus guttatus in the United Kingdom, where the species is considered invasive, and compare this diversity to that in native populations on the west coast of North America. Additionally, we looked at diversity in non-native populations that have not yet become invasive (naturalized populations) in eastern North America. We investigated population structure among populations in these three regions and attempted to uncover the sources for populations that have established in the naturalized and invasive regions. We found that genetic diversity was, on average, relatively high in populations from the invasive UK region and comparable to native populations. Contrastingly, two naturalized M. guttatus populations were low in both genetic and genotypic diversity, indicating a history of asexual reproduction and self-fertilization. A third naturalized population was found to be a polyploid Mimulus hybrid of unknown origin. Our results demonstrate that M. guttatus has likely achieved colonization success outside of its native western North America distribution by a variety of establishment pathways, including those with genetic and demographic benefits resulting from multiple introductions in the UK, reproductive assurance through selfing, and asexual reproduction in eastern North America, and possible polyploidization in one Canadian population.

Genotypic detection of barriers to rat dispersal: Rattus rattus behind a peninsula predator-proof fence

Clear delimitation of management units is essential for effective management of invasive species. Analysis of population genetic structure of target species can improve identification and interpretation of natural and artificial barriers to dispersal. In Aotearoa New Zealand where the introduced ship rat (Rattus rattus) is a major threat to native biodiversity, effective suppression of pest numbers requires removal and limitation of reinvasion from outside the managed population. We contrasted population genetic structure in rat populations over a wide scale without known barriers, with structure over a fine scale with potential barriers to dispersal. MtDNA D-loop sequences and microsatellite genotypes resolved little genetic structure in southern North Island population samples of ship rat 100 km apart. In contrast, samples from major islands differed significantly for both mtDNA and nuclear markers. We also compared ship rats collected within a small peninsula reserve bounded by sea, suburbs and, more recently, a predator fence with rats in the surrounding forest. Here, mtDNA did not differ but genotypes from 14 nuclear loci were sufficient to distinguish the fenced population. This suggests that natural (sea) and artificial barriers (town, fence) are effectively limiting gene flow among ship rat populations over the short distance (~ 500 m) between the peninsula reserve and surrounding forest. The effectiveness of the fence alone is not clear given it is a recent feature and no historical samples exist; resampling population genetic diversity over time will improve understanding. Nonetheless, the current genetic isolation of the fenced rat population suggests that rat eradication is a sensible management option given that reinvasion appears to be limited and could probably be managed with a biosecurity programme.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10530-023-03004-8.

The genetic diversity and structure in the European polecat were not affected by the introduction of the American mink in Poland

The introduction and expansion of an invasive non-native species could have important consequences for the genetic patterns and processes of native species, moreover if the new arrival competes strongly for resources and space. This may result in the demographic decline of the native species. Knowing the effects on the levels of genetic diversity and structure in native species is key in terms of their conservation. We analysed temporal (over 50 years) genetic variation of the population of the European polecat (Mustela putorius), a species under threat in several European countries, in the Białowieża Primeval Forest (BPF), Poland, before and after the invasion of the American mink (Neovison vison). Using 11 microsatellite loci and a fragment of the mitochondrial control region we show that levels of diversity changed in the polecat population over 53 generations (over the period 1959–2012) and after the invasion of mink. When compared with other threatened European polecat populations, high levels of diversity are observed in the population in BPF in both periods, as well as in other areas in Poland. Our data shows that genetic structure was not present either before or after the mink invasion in BPF. This would suggest that the polecat population in Poland was not affected by invasive species and other negative factors and would be a potential good source of individuals for captive breeding or genetic rescue conservation management actions in areas where such actions are needed, for example the UK.

A population genetic analysis of the Critically Endangered Madagascar big-headed turtle, Erymnochelys madagascariensis across captive and wild populations

Erymnochelys madagascariensis is a Critically Endangered turtle endemic to Madagascar. Anthropogenic activity has depleted the wild population by 70% in the last century, and effective conservation management is essential to ensuring its persistence. Captive breeding was implemented to augment depleted populations in the southern part of Ankarafantsika National Park (ANP), when no genetic data were available for E. madagascariensis. It is unknown how much of the natural population's diversity is encapsulated in captivity. We used eight microsatellite loci and fragments of two mitochondrial genes to identify the genetic structure of E. madagascariensis in the wild. Captive bred turtles were compared with wild populations in order to assess the representativeness of this ex situ conservation strategy for ANP. Six microsatellite clusters, ten cytochrome b, and nine COI haplotypes were identified across wild populations, with high genetic divergence found between populations in two groups of watersheds. Captive bred individuals represent three out of six sampled microsatellite clusters found in the wild and just one mitochondrial haplotype, possibly due to genetic drift. To improve genetic representation, the strategy of frequent interchange between captive and wild breeders within ANP should be revitalised and, as originally planned, hatchlings or juveniles should not be released beyond ANP.

Searching for genetic evidence of demographic decline in an arctic seabird: beware of overlapping generations

Genetic data are useful for detecting sudden population declines in species that are difficult to study in the field. Yet this indirect approach has its own drawbacks, including population structure, mutation patterns, and generation overlap. The ivory gull (Pagophila eburnea), a long-lived Arctic seabird, is currently suffering from rapid alteration of its primary habitat (i.e., sea ice), and dramatic climatic events affecting reproduction and recruitment. However, ivory gulls live in remote areas, and it is difficult to assess the population trend of the species across its distribution. Here we present complementary microsatellite- and SNP-based genetic analyses to test a recent bottleneck genetic signal in ivory gulls over a large portion of their distribution. With attention to the potential effects of population structure, mutation patterns, and sample size, we found no significant signatures of population decline worldwide. At a finer scale, we found a significant bottleneck signal at one location in Canada. These results were compared with predictions from simulations showing how generation time and generation overlap can delay and reduce the bottleneck microsatellite heterozygosity excess signal. The consistency of the results obtained with independent methods strongly indicates that the species shows no genetic evidence of an overall decline in population size. However, drawing conclusions related to the species' population trends will require a better understanding of the effect of age structure in long-lived species. In addition, estimates of the effective global population size of ivory gulls were surprisingly low (~1000 ind.), suggesting that the evolutionary potential of the species is not assured.

Demographic and Evolutionary History of Pallid and Shovelnose Sturgeon in the Upper Missouri River

Natural-origin pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus in the upper Missouri River are predicted to become extirpated as early as 2024.  To aid in recovery efforts for this endangered species, we used genetic data from 17 microsatellite loci to infer demographic and evolutionary history of pallid sturgeon and a sympatric shovelnose sturgeon S. platorynchus .  A recent sundering of geneflow between these species was indicated by overlapping allele size distributions at all loci and low level of genetic divergence ( F ST = 0.10).  Tests for recent bottlenecks, using heterozygosity excess or allele frequency mode-shift tests indicated demographic stability for both species while the M-Ratio identified historic bottlenecks had occurred in both species. Estimates of historical effective population size ( N e ), based on coalescent modeling of allele size distribution, suggested the geographic expansion of these species into the upper Missouri River during the late Pleistocene was associated with 10 to 19 fold reductions in N e .  In contrast estimates of contemporary estimates of N e based on linkage disequilibrium revealed that shovelnose sturgeon ( N e  = 2983) had approximately 10 times greater N e  than pallid sturgeon ( N e  = 254).  Our results are consistent with the recent collapse of pallid sturgeon being caused by dam construction which occurred between 1930 and 1965.  Fortunately, genetic diversity remaining in this long-lived species has provided an opportunity to conserve pre-dam pallid sturgeon genetic diversity via a successful captive breeding program. We provide recommendations to address key conservation needs including how to incorporate our estimate of N e / adult census size of 0.26 (95% CI: 0.16 – 0.47) into setting demographic recovery goals for pallid sturgeon.

High genetic diversity and low structure in an endemic long-lived tree, Yucca capensis (Asparagaceae)

Endemic species distributed in fragmented habitats are highly vulnerable to extinction because they may have low genetic diversity. However, some life-history traits can mitigate the effect of genetic drift on populations. We analysed the level and distribution of genetic variation and ancestral population size of Yucca capensis, a long-lived endemic plant of the Baja California Peninsula, Mexico. Its populations are scattered across a habitat that is suffering accelerated transformation. We used six nuclear microsatellites to genotype 224 individuals from 17 locations across the entire species' geographic range. We estimated polymorphisms, heterozygosity and genetic structure. We also evaluated the ancestral and recent effective size and time since the population started to change. We found high heterozygosity, high polymorphism and low differentiation among locations, suggesting a panmictic population across the range. We also detected a large ancestral effective population size, which suffered a strong reduction in the Mid-Holocene. Despite changes in environmental conditions caused by habitat modification, the high diversity and low differentiation in Y. capensis may result from its large ancestral effective size and life-history traits, such as plant longevity, clonal growth and mating system, which reduce the rate of loss of genetic variation. However, the dependence on a specialist pollinator that displays short flight range can reduce gene flow among the plant populations and could, shortly, lead them into an extinction vortex.

Genetic diversity in a long-lived mammal is explained by the past's demographic shadow and current connectivity

Within-species genetic diversity is crucial for the persistence and integrity of populations and ecosystems. Conservation actions require an understanding of factors influencing genetic diversity, especially in the context of global change. Both population size and connectivity are factors greatly influencing genetic diversity; the relative importance of these factors can, however, change through time. Hence, quantifying the degree to which population size or genetic connectivity are shaping genetic diversity, and at which ecological time scale (past or present), is challenging, yet essential for the development of efficient conservation strategies. In this study, we estimated the genetic diversity of 42 colonies of Rhinolophus hipposideros, a long-lived mammal vulnerable to global change, sampling locations spanning its continental northern range. Here, we present an integrative approach that disentangles and quantifies the contribution of different connectivity measures in addition to contemporary colony size and historic bottlenecks in shaping genetic diversity. In our study, the best model explained 64% of the variation in genetic diversity. It included historic bottlenecks, contemporary colony size, connectivity and a negative interaction between the latter two. Contemporary connectivity explained most genetic diversity when considering a 65 km radius around the focal colonies, emphasizing the large geographic scale at which the positive impact of connectivity on genetic diversity is most profound and hence, the minimum scale at which conservation should be planned. Our results highlight that the relative importance of the two main factors shaping genetic diversity varies through time, emphasizing the relevance of disentangling them to ensure appropriate conservation strategies.

Recent demographic histories of temperate deciduous trees inferred from microsatellite markers

Background

Accurate inference of demographic histories for temperate tree species can aid our understanding of current climate change as a driver of evolution. Microsatellites are more suitable for inferring recent historical events due to their high mutation rates. However, most programs analyzing microsatellite data assume a strict stepwise mutation model (SMM), which could cause false detection of population shrinkage when microsatellite mutation does not follow SMM.

Results

This study aims to reconstruct the recent demographic histories of five cool-temperate tree species in Eastern Asia, Quercus mongolica, Q. liaotungensis, Juglans cathayensis, J. mandshurica and J. ailantifolia, by using 19 microsatellite markers with two methods considering generalized stepwise mutation model (GSM) (MIGRAINE and VarEff). Both programs revealed that all the five species experienced expansions after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Within butternuts, J. cathayensis experienced a more serious bottleneck than the other species, and within oaks, Q. mongolica showed a moderate increase in population size and remained stable after the expansion. In addition, the point estimates of the multistep mutation proportion in the GSM model (p_GSM) for all five species were between 0.50 and 0.65, indicating that when inferring population demographic history of the cool-temperate forest species using microsatellite markers, it is better to assume a GSM rather than a SMM.

Conclusions

This study provides the first direct evidence that five cool-temperate tree species in East Asia have experienced expansions after the LGM with microsatellite data. Considering the mutation model of microsatellite has a vital influence on demographic inference, combining multiple programs such as MIGRAINE and VarEff can effectively reduce errors caused by inappropriate model selection and prior setting.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12862-021-01805-w.

Genetic analyses reveal population structure and recent decline in leopards (Panthera pardus fusca) across the Indian subcontinent

Background

Large carnivores maintain the stability and functioning of ecosystems. Currently, many carnivore species face declining population sizes due to natural and anthropogenic pressures. The leopard, Panthera pardus, is probably the most widely distributed and highly adaptable large felid globally, still persisting in most of its historic range. However, we lack subspecies-level data on country or regional scale on population trends, as ecological monitoring approaches are difficult to apply on such wide-ranging species. We used genetic data from leopards sampled across the Indian subcontinent to investigate population structure and patterns of demographic decline.

Methods

We collected faecal samples from the Terai-Arc landscape of northern India and identified 56 unique individuals using a panel of 13 microsatellite markers. We merged this data with already available 143 leopard individuals and assessed genetic structure at country scale. Subsequently, we investigated the demographic history of each identified subpopulations and compared genetic decline analyses with countrywide local extinction probabilities.

Results

Our genetic analyses revealed four distinct subpopulations corresponding to Western Ghats, Deccan Plateau-Semi Arid, Shivalik and Terai region of the north Indian landscape, each with high genetic variation. Coalescent simulations with microsatellite loci revealed a possibly human-induced 75–90% population decline between ∼120–200 years ago across India. Population-specific estimates of genetic decline are in concordance with ecological estimates of local extinction probabilities in these subpopulations obtained from occupancy modeling of the historic and current distribution of leopards in India.

Conclusions

Our results confirm the population decline of a widely distributed, adaptable large carnivore. We re-iterate the relevance of indirect genetic methods for such species in conjunction with occupancy assessment and recommend that detailed, landscape-level ecological studies on leopard populations are critical to future conservation efforts. Our approaches and inference are relevant to other widely distributed, seemingly unaffected carnivores such as the leopard.

Integrating population genetics to define conservation units from the core to the edge of Rhinolophus ferrumequinum western range

The greater horseshoe bat (Rhinolophus ferrumequinum) is among the most widespread bat species in Europe but it has experienced severe declines, especially in Northern Europe. This species is listed Near Threatened in the European IUCN Red List of Threatened Animals, and it is considered to be highly sensitive to human activities and particularly to habitat fragmentation. Therefore, understanding the population boundaries and demographic history of populations of this species is of primary importance to assess relevant conservation strategies. In this study, we used 17 microsatellite markers to assess the genetic diversity, the genetic structure, and the demographic history of R. ferrumequinum colonies in the western part of its distribution. We identified one large population showing high levels of genetic diversity and large population size. Lower estimates were found in England and northern France. Analyses of clustering and isolation by distance suggested that the Channel and the Mediterranean seas could impede R. ferrumequinum gene flow. These results provide important information to improve the delineation of R. ferrumequinum management units. We suggest that a large management unit corresponding to the population ranging from Spanish Basque Country to northern France must be considered. Particular attention should be given to mating territories as they seem to play a key role in maintaining high levels of genetic mixing between colonies. Smaller management units corresponding to English and northern France colonies must also be implemented. These insular or peripheral colonies could be at higher risk of extinction in the near future.

Genetic diversity and structure of two endangered mole salamander species of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt

The most important factor leading to amphibian population declines and extinctions is habitat degradation and destruction. To help prevent further extinctions, studies are needed to make appropriate conservation decisions in small and fragmented populations. The goal of this study was to provide data from the population genetics of two micro-endemic mole salamanders from the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. Nine microsatellite markers were used to study the population genetics of 152 individuals from twoAmbystomaspecies. We sampled 38 individuals in two localities forA. altamiraniandA. rivualre. We found medium to high levels of genetic diversity expressed as heterozygosity in the populations. However, all the populations presented few alleles per locus and genotypes. We found strong genetic structure between populations for each species. Effective population size was small but similar to that of the studies from other mole salamanders with restricted distributions or with recently fragmented habitats. Despite the medium to high levels of genetic diversity expressed as heterozygosity, we found few alleles, evidence of a genetic bottleneck and that the effective population size is small in all populations. Therefore, this study is important to propose better management plans and conservation efforts for these species.

Conservation Genetic Assessment of Savannah Elephants (Loxodonta africana) in the Greater Kruger Biosphere, South Africa

Savannah elephant populations have been severely reduced and fragmented throughout its remaining range. In general, however, there is limited information regarding their genetic status, which is essential knowledge for conservation. We investigated patterns of genetic variation in savannah elephants from the Greater Kruger Biosphere, with a focus on those in previously unstudied nature reserves adjacent to Kruger National Park, using dung samples from 294 individuals and 18 microsatellites. The results of genetic structure analyses using several different methods of ordination and Bayesian clustering strongly suggest that elephants throughout the Greater Kruger National Park (GKNP) constitute a single population. No evidence of a recent genetic bottleneck was detected using three moment-based approaches and two coalescent likelihood methods. The apparent absence of a recent genetic bottleneck associated with the known early 1900s demographic bottleneck may result from a combination of rapid post-bottleneck population growth, immigration and long generation time. Point estimates of contemporary effective population size (Ne) for the GKNP were ~ 500-700, that is, at the low end of the range of Ne values that have been proposed for maintaining evolutionary potential and the current ratio of Ne to census population size (Nc) may be quite low (<0.1). This study illustrates the difficulties in assessing the impacts on Ne in populations that have suffered demographic crashes but have recovered rapidly and received gene flow, particularly in species with long generation times in which genetic time lags are longer. This work provides a starting point and baseline information for genetic monitoring of the GKNP elephants.

Long-term isolation at a low effective population size greatly reduced genetic diversity in Gulf of California fin whales

The Gulf of California, Mexico is home to many cetacean species, including a presumed resident population of fin whales, Balaenoptera physalus. Past studies reported very low levels of genetic diversity among Gulf of California fin whales and a significant level of genetic differentiation from con-specifics in the eastern North Pacific. The aim of the present study was to assess the degree and timing of the isolation of Gulf of California fin whales in a population genetic analysis of 18 nuclear microsatellite genotypes from 402 samples and 565 mitochondrial control region DNA sequences (including mitochondrial sequences retrieved from NCBI). The analyses revealed that the Gulf of California fin whale population was founded ~2.3 thousand years ago and has since remained at a low effective population size (~360) and isolated from the eastern North Pacific (Nem between 0.89-1.4). The low effective population size and high degree of isolation implied that Gulf of California fin whales are vulnerable to the negative effects of genetic drift, human-caused mortality and habitat change.

The largest fish in the world's biggest river: Genetic connectivity and conservation of Arapaima gigas in the Amazon and Araguaia-Tocantins drainages

Arapaima, pirarucu or paiche (Arapaima gigas) is one of the largest freshwater fish in the world, and has a long history of commercial exploitation in the Amazon region. To estimate levels of genetic variability and historical and recent connectivity in Arapaima, we examined variation in eleven microsatellite DNA markers in individuals from 22 localities in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru. The results of analysis of molecular variance, Bayesian clustering and discriminant analysis of principal components showed that Arapaima in our samples represents two major populations, one in the Amazonas and one in the Araguaia-Tocantins River basins. The Amazonas population is further structured by isolation-by-distance with the hydrologically largely unconnected Amapá locality representing the eastern-most extreme of this continuum; gene flow predominates at distances of less than 1500 km with localities separated by over 2000 km dominated by genetic drift and effectively forming different populations. We saw no evidence of multiple species of Arapaima in the Amazonas basin, and analysis of pairwise genetic divergence (F_ST) with Mantel tests and correlograms indicated that this largest population exhibits a large-scale pattern of isolation-by-distance, with which results from MIGRATE-N agreed. The degree and significance of genetic divergence indicates that most sampled localities represent demographically independent sub-populations, although we did identify several recent migration events between both proximal and more distant localities. The levels of genetic diversity were heterogeneous across sites, including low genetic diversity, effective population sizes, and evidence of genetic bottlenecks in several places. On average the levels of gene diversity and rarefied allelic richness were higher for localities along the Amazonas mainstem than in the tributaries, despite these being the areas of highest fishing pressure, while the lowest values were found in tributary headwaters, where landscape modification is a significant threat. We recommend that managers consider the regional and local threats to these populations and tailor strategies accordingly, strategies which should ensure the ability of young A. gigas to disperse through floodplain corridors to maintain genetic diversity among otherwise sedentary adult sub-populations.

Methods for Estimating Demography and Detecting Between-Locus Differences in the Effective Population Size and Mutation Rate

It is known that the effective population size (N_e) and the mutation rate (u) vary across the genome. Here, we show that ignoring this heterogeneity may lead to biased estimates of past demography. To solve the problem, we develop new methods for jointly inferring past changes in population size and detecting variation in N_e and u between loci. These methods rely on either polymorphism data alone or both polymorphism and divergence data. In addition to inferring demography, we can use the methods to study a variety of questions: 1) comparing sex chromosomes with autosomes (for finding evidence for male-driven evolution, an unequal sex ratio, or sex-biased demographic changes) and 2) analyzing multilocus data from within autosomes or sex chromosomes (for studying determinants of variability in N_e and u). Simulations suggest that the methods can provide accurate parameter estimates and have substantial statistical power for detecting difference in N_e and u. As an example, we use the methods to analyze a polymorphism data set from Drosophila simulans. We find clear evidence for rapid population expansion. The results also indicate that the autosomes have a higher mutation rate than the X chromosome and that the sex ratio is probably female-biased. The new methods have been implemented in a user-friendly package.

Mathematical modelling reveals unexpected inheritance and variability patterns of cell cycle parameters in mammalian cells

The cell cycle is the fundamental process of cell populations, it is regulated by environmental cues and by intracellular checkpoints. Cell cycle variability in clonal cell population is caused by stochastic processes such as random partitioning of cellular components to progeny cells at division and random interactions among biomolecules in cells. One of the important biological questions is how the dynamics at the cell cycle scale, which is related to family dependencies between the cell and its descendants, affects cell population behavior in the long-run. We address this question using a “mechanistic” model, built based on observations of single cells over several cell generations, and then extrapolated in time. We used cell pedigree observations of NIH 3T3 cells including FUCCI markers, to determine patterns of inheritance of cell-cycle phase durations and single-cell protein dynamics. Based on that information we developed a hybrid mathematical model, involving bifurcating autoregression to describe stochasticity of partitioning and inheritance of cell-cycle-phase times, and an ordinary differential equation system to capture single-cell protein dynamics. Long-term simulations, concordant with in vitro experiments, demonstrated the model reproduced the main features of our data and had homeostatic properties. Moreover, heterogeneity of cell cycle may have important consequences during population development. We discovered an effect similar to genetic drift, amplified by family relationships among cells. In consequence, the progeny of a single cell with a short cell cycle time had a high probability of eventually dominating the population, due to the heritability of cell-cycle phases. Patterns of epigenetic heritability in proliferating cells are important for understanding long-term trends of cell populations which are either required to provide the influx of maturing cells (such as hematopoietic stem cells) or which started proliferating uncontrollably (such as cancer cells).

All cells in multicellular organisms obey orchestrated sequences of signals to ensure developmental and homeostatic fitness under a variety of external stimuli. However, there also exist self-perpetuating stem-cell populations, the function of which is to provide a steady supply of differentiated progenitors that in turn ensure persistence of organism functions. This “cell production engine” is an important element of biological homeostasis. A similar process, albeit distorted in many respects, plays a major role in cancer development; here the robustness of homeostasis contributes to difficulty in eradication of malignancy. An important role in homeostasis seems to be played by generation of heterogeneity among cell phenotypes, which then can be shaped by selection and other genetic forces. In the present paper, we present a model of a cultured cell population, which factors in relationships among related cells and the dynamics of cell growth and important proteins regulating cell division. We find that the model not only maintains homeostasis, but that it also responds to perturbations in a manner that is similar to that exhibited by the Wright-Fisher model of population genetics. The model-cell population can become dominated by the progeny of the fittest individuals, without invoking advantageous mutations. If confirmed, this may provide an alternative mode of evolution of cell populations.

Mitochondrial Introgression, Color Pattern Variation, and Severe Demographic Bottlenecks in Three Species of Malagasy Poison Frogs, Genus Mantella

Madagascar is a biodiversity hotspot particularly rich in amphibian diversity and only a few charismatic Malagasy amphibians have been investigated for their population-level differentiation. The Mantellamadagascariensis group is composed of two rainforest and three swamp forest species of poison frogs. We first confirm the monophyly of this clade using DNA sequences of three nuclear and four mitochondrial genes, and subsequently investigate the population genetic differentiation and demography of the swamp forest species using one mitochondrial, two nuclear and a set of nine microsatellite markers. Our results confirm the occurrence of two main mitochondrial lineages, one dominated by Mantellaaurantiaca (a grouping supported also by our microsatellite-based tree) and the other by Mantellacrocea + Mantellamilotympanum. These two main lineages probably reflect an older divergence in swamp Mantella. Widespread mitochondrial introgression suggests a fairly common occurrence of inter-lineage gene flow. However, nuclear admixture seems to play only a limited role in this group, and the analyses of the RAG-1 marker points to a predominant incomplete lineage sorting scenario between all five species of the group, which probably diverged relatively recently. Our demographic analyses show a common, severe and recent demographic contraction, inferred to be in temporal coincidence with the massive deforestation events that took place in the past 1000 years. Current data do not allow to conclusively delimit independent evolutionary units in these frogs, and we therefore refrain to suggest any taxonomic changes.

Genetic diversity and structure of Crotalus triseriatus, a rattlesnake of central Mexico

The isolated and fragmented populations are highly susceptible to stochastic events, increasing the extinction risk because of the decline in putative adaptive potential and individual fitness. The population has high heterozygosity values and a moderate allelic diversity, the heterozygosity values are higher than in most other Crotalus species and snake studies. Possibly these high levels of genetic diversity can be related to a large founder size, high effective population size, multiple paternity and overlapping generations. We did not find the genetic structuring but the effective number of alleles (N_e) was 138.1. We found evidence of bottlenecks and the majority of rattlesnakeswere unrelated, despite the small sample size, endemic status, the isolated and fragmented habitat. The genetic information provided in this study can be useful as a first approach to try to make informed conservation efforts for this species and also, important to preserve the habitat of this species; the endangered Abies-Pinus forest of the Nevado the Toluca Volcano.

Demographic histories of three predatory lady beetles reveal complex patterns of diversity and population size change in the United States

Predatory lady beetles (Coccinellidae) contribute to biological control of agricultural pests, however, multiple species frequently compete for similar resources in the same environment. Numerous studies have examined ecological interactions among the native North American convergent lady beetle (Hippodamia convergens) and two introduced species, the seven-spotted lady beetle (Coccinella septempunctata) and the Asian lady beetle (Harmonia axyridis), in agricultural fields and described multiyear population dynamics. However, the evolutionary dynamics of these interacting species of predatory beetles are uncharacterized. We utilize publicly available multilocus genotype data from geographically disjunct populations of these three species to estimate demography across North American populations. Coalescent analyses reveal (1) a recent (∼4-5 years) decline (>12 fold) in microsatellite effective population size of H. convergens, while expanding (mutation scaled growth rate in 1/u generations = 2910, SD = 362) over evolutionary time scales, (2) a massive (>150 fold), and very recent, effective population size decline in Ha. axyridis, and (3) population size growth (mutation scaled growth rate = 997, SD = 60) over recent and evolutionary time scales in C. septempunctata. Although these estimates are based on genetic data with different mutation rates and patterns of inheritance (mitochondrial versus nuclear), these dynamic and differing population size histories are striking. Further studies of the interactions of these predatory lady beetles in the field are thus warranted to explore the consequences of population size change and biological control activities for evolutionary trajectories in North America.

Contrasting evolutionary history, anthropogenic declines and genetic contact in the northern and southern white rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum)

The white rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum) has a discontinuous African distribution, which is limited by the extent of sub-Saharan grasslands. The southern population (SWR) declined to its lowest number around the turn of the nineteenth century, but recovered to become the world's most numerous rhinoceros. In contrast, the northern population (NWR) was common during much of the twentieth century, declining rapidly since the 1970s, and now only two post-reproductive individuals remain. Despite this species's conservation status, it lacks a genetic assessment of its demographic history. We therefore sampled 232 individuals from extant and museum sources and analysed ten microsatellite loci and the mtDNA control region. Both marker types reliably partitioned the species into SWR and NWR, with moderate nuclear genetic diversity and only three mtDNA haplotypes for the species, including historical samples. We detected ancient interglacial demographic declines in both populations. Both populations may also have been affected by recent declines associated with the colonial expansion for the SWR, and with the much earlier Bantu migrations for the NWR. Finally, we detected post-divergence secondary contact between NWR and SWR, possibly occurring as recently as the last glacial maximum. These results suggest the species was subjected to regular periods of fragmentation and low genetic diversity, which may have been replenished upon secondary contact during glacial periods. The species's current situation thus reflects prehistoric declines that were exacerbated by anthropogenic pressure associated with the rise of late Holocene technological advancement in Africa. Importantly, secondary contact suggests a potentially positive outcome for a hybrid rescue conservation strategy, although further genome-wide data are desirable to corroborate these results.

The IICR and the non-stationary structured coalescent: towards demographic inference with arbitrary changes in population structure

In the last years, a wide range of methods allowing to reconstruct past population size changes from genome-wide data have been developed. At the same time, there has been an increasing recognition that population structure can generate genetic data similar to those produced under models of population size change. Recently, Mazet et al. (Heredity 116:362-371, 2016) showed that, for any model of population structure, it is always possible to find a panmictic model with a particular function of population size changes, having exactly the same distribution of T₂ (the coalescence time for a sample of size two) as that of the structured model. They called this function IICR (Inverse Instantaneous Coalescence Rate) and showed that it does not necessarily correspond to population size changes under non-panmictic models. Besides, most of the methods used to analyse data under models of population structure tend to arbitrarily fix that structure and to minimise or neglect population size changes. Here, we extend the seminal work of Herbots (PhD thesis, University of London, 1994) on the structured coalescent and propose a new framework, the Non-Stationary Structured Coalescent (NSSC) that incorporates demographic events (changes in gene flow and/or deme sizes) to models of nearly any complexity. We show how to compute the IICR under a wide family of stationary and non-stationary models. As an example we address the question of human and Neanderthal evolution and discuss how the NSSC framework allows to interpret genomic data under this new perspective.

A Multilocus Approach to Understanding Historical and Contemporary Demography of the Keystone Floodplain Species Colossoma macropomum (Teleostei: Characiformes)

We studied the natural populations of a flagship fish species of the Amazon, Colossoma macropomum which in recent years has been suffering from severe exploitation. Our aim was to investigate the existence or not of genetic differentiation across the wide area of its distribution and to investigate changes in its effective population size throughout its evolutionary history. We sampled individuals from 21 locations distributed throughout the Amazon basin. We analyzed 539 individuals for mitochondrial genes (control region and ATPase gene 6/8), generating 1,561 base pairs, and genotyped 604 individuals for 13 microsatellite loci obtaining, on average, 21.4 alleles per locus. Mean H_E was 0.78 suggesting moderate levels of genetic variability. AMOVA and other tests used to detect the population structure based on both markers indicate that C. macropomum comprises a single and large panmitic population in the main channel of the Solimões-Amazonas River basin, on the other hand localities in the headwaters of the tributaries Juruá, Purus, Madeira, Tapajós, and localities of black water, showed genetic structure. The greatest genetic differentiation was observed between the Brazilian Amazon basin and the Bolivian sub-basin with restricted genetic flow between the two basins. Demographic analyzes of mitochondrial genes indicated population expansion in the Brazilian and Bolivian Amazon basins during the Pleistocene, and microsatellite data indicated a population reduction during the Holocene. This shows that the historical demography of C. macropomum is highly dynamic. Conservation and management strategies should be designed to respect the existing population structure and minimize the effects of overfishing by limiting fisheries C. macropomum populations.

Molecular phylogeography of East Asian Boea clarkeana (Gesneriaceae) in relation to habitat restriction

Subfamily Cyrtandroideae (Gesneriaceae) comprises a broadly distributed group of rocky-slope herbs, with China being the center of its distributional range. The normal growth of many species within the family is particularly dependent on special habitats. Due to the paucity of molecular studies, very little is known regarding East Asian herb phylogeographic pattern. Here, we investigate the molecular phylogeography of Boea clarkeana Hemsl., a unique resurrection herb endemic to China, focusing on geographically restrictive effects of habitat distribution on evolutionary history. Variation in three chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) intergenic spacers (psbA-trnH, rps12-rpl20, and trnL-trnF), the ribosomal internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and simple sequence repeats in expressed sequence tags (EST-SSRs) was investigated across 18 populations to assess genetic diversity, genetic structure and historical dynamics. Genetic diversity was low within populations (cpDNA, hS = 0.03, πS×10(3) = 0.17; ITS, hS = 0.16, πS×10(3) = 0.43) but high for species (cpDNA, hT = 0.82, πT×10(3) = 3.12; ITS, hT = 0.88, πT×10(3) = 6.39); 76 alleles were detected in this highly inbred species (FIS = 0.22), with a significantly low average of 1.34 alleles per locus. No cpDNA or ITS haplotypes were shared between regions. Based on cpDNA results, the Mt. Huangshan-Tianmu and Mt. Qinling-Daba haplotypes are ancestral; these two regions represent potential refugia. Although no evidence of significant retreat-migration phenomena during glacial cycles was detected, interglacial range expansion from northern Mt. Qinling-Daba was identified (121,457 yr BP). Rapid agricultural growth caused bottlenecks in many populations, especially on Mt. Huang-Tianmu. Habitat restriction and fragmentation, weak seed and pollen dispersal abilities, and long-term isolation caused by human-induced or environmental changes are considered the main causes of extinction of several populations and low genetic diversity within populations and regions. These analyses clarify the effects of habitat restriction on B. clarkeana, representing an evolutionary reference for similar gesneriads, and enrich our understanding of the molecular phylogeography of East Asian rocky-slope herbs.

What factors shape genetic diversity in cetaceans?

Understanding what factors drive patterns of genetic diversity is a central aspect of many biological questions, ranging from the inference of historical demography to assessing the evolutionary potential of a species. However, as a larger number of datasets have become available, it is becoming clear that the relationship between the characteristics of a species and its genetic diversity is more complex than previously assumed. This may be particularly true for cetaceans, due to their relatively long lifespans, long generation times, complex social structures, and extensive ranges. In this study, we used microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA data from a systematic literature review to produce estimates of diversity for both markers across 42 cetacean species. Factors relating to demography, distribution, classification, biology, and behavior were then tested using phylogenetic methods and linear models to assess their relative influence on the genetic diversity of both marker types. The results show that while relative nuclear diversity is correlated with population size, mitochondrial diversity is not. This is particularly relevant given the widespread use of mitochondrial DNA to infer historical demography. Instead, mitochondrial diversity was mostly influenced by the range and social structure of the species. In addition to population size, habitat type (neritic vs. oceanic) had a significant correlation with relative nuclear diversity. Combined, these results show that many often-unconsidered factors are likely influencing patterns of genetic diversity in cetaceans, with implications regarding how to interpret, and what can be inferred from, existing patterns of diversity.

Genetic analyses favour an ancient and natural origin of elephants on Borneo

The origin of the elephant on the island of Borneo remains elusive. Research has suggested two alternative hypotheses: the Bornean elephant stems either from a recent introduction in the 17th century or from an ancient colonization several hundreds of thousands years ago. Lack of elephant fossils has been interpreted as evidence for a very recent introduction, whereas mtDNA divergence from other Asian elephants has been argued to favor an ancient colonization. We investigated the demographic history of Bornean elephants using full-likelihood and approximate Bayesian computation analyses. Our results are at odds with both the recent and ancient colonization hypotheses, and favour a third intermediate scenario. We find that genetic data favour a scenario in which Bornean elephants experienced a bottleneck during the last glacial period, possibly as a consequence of the colonization of Borneo, and from which it has slowly recovered since. Altogether the data support a natural colonization of Bornean elephants at a time when large terrestrial mammals could colonise from the Sunda shelf when sea levels were much lower. Our results are important not only in understanding the unique history of the colonization of Borneo by elephants, but also for their long-term conservation.

Demographic collapse and low genetic diversity of the Irrawaddy dolphin population inhabiting the Mekong River

In threatened wildlife populations, it is important to determine whether observed low genetic diversity may be due to recent anthropogenic pressure or the consequence of historic events. Historical size of the Irrawaddy dolphin (Orcaella brevirostris) population inhabiting the Mekong River is unknown and there is significant concern for long-term survival of the remaining population as a result of low abundance, slow reproduction rate, high neonatal mortality, and continuing anthropogenic threats. We investigated population structure and reconstructed the demographic history based on 60 Irrawaddy dolphins samples collected between 2001 and 2009. The phylogenetic analysis indicated reciprocal monophyly of Mekong River Orcaella haplotypes with respect to haplotypes from other populations, suggesting long-standing isolation of the Mekong dolphin population from other Orcaella populations. We found that at least 85% of all individuals in the two main study areas: Kratie and Stung Treng, bore the same mitochondrial haplotype. Out of the 21 microsatellite loci tested, only ten were polymorphic and exhibited very low levels of genetic diversity. Both individual and frequency-based approaches suggest very low and non-significant genetic differentiation of the Mekong dolphin population. Evidence for recent bottlenecks was equivocal. Some results suggested a recent exponential decline in the Mekong dolphin population, with the current size being only 5.2% of the ancestral population. In order for the Mekong dolphin population to have any potential for long-term survival, it is imperative that management priorities focus on preventing any further population fragmentation or genetic loss, reducing or eliminating anthropogenic threats, and promoting connectivity between all subpopulations.

Influence of historical land use and modern agricultural expansion on the spatial and ecological divergence of sugarcane borer, Diatraea saccharalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) in Brazil

Human-mediated changes in landscapes can facilitate niche expansion and accelerate the adaptation of insect species. The interaction between the evolutionary history of the sugarcane borer, Diatraea saccharalis Fabricius, and historical and modern agricultural activity in Brazil shaped its spatial genetic structure, facilitating ecological divergence and incipient host shifting. Based on microsatellite data, STRUCTURE analyses identified two (K = 2) and three (K = 3) significant genetic clusters that corresponded to: (a) a strong signal of spatial genetic structure and, (b) a cryptic signal of host differentiation. We inferred that K = 2 reflects the footprint of agricultural activity, such as expansion of crop production (sugarcane and maize), unintentional dispersion of pests, and management practices. In contrast, K = 3 indicated incipient host differentiation between larvae collected from sugarcane or maize. Our estimates of population size changes indicated that a historical bottleneck was associated with a reduction of sugarcane production ≈200 years ago. However, a more recent population expansion was detected (>1950s), associated with agricultural expansion of large crop production into previously unfarmed land. Partial Mantel tests supported our hypothesis of incipient host adaptation, and identified isolation-by-environment (e.g., host plant) in São Paulo and Minas Gerais states, where sugarcane has been traditionally produced in Brazil. The impact of agricultural production on D. saccharalis may continue, as the current population structure may hinder the efficacy of refuge plants in delaying insect resistance evolution to Bt toxin.

Reduced population size does not affect the mating strategy of a vulnerable and endemic seabird

Bottleneck episodes may occur in small and isolated animal populations, which may result in decreased genetic diversity and increased inbreeding, but also in mating strategy adjustment. This was evaluated in the vulnerable and socially monogamous Monteiro's Storm-petrel Hydrobates monteiroi, a seabird endemic to the Azores archipelago which has suffered a dramatic population decline since the XVth century. To do this, we conducted a genetic study (18 microsatellite markers) in the population from Praia islet, which has been monitored over 16 years. We found no evidence that a genetic bottleneck was associated with this demographic decline. Monteiro's Storm-petrels paired randomly with respect to genetic relatedness and body measurements. Pair fecundity was unrelated to genetic relatedness between partners. We detected only two cases of extra-pair parentage associated with an extra-pair copulation (out of 71 offspring). Unsuccessful pairs were most likely to divorce the next year, but genetic relatedness between pair mates and pair breeding experience did not influence divorce. Divorce enabled individuals to improve their reproductive performances after re-mating only when the new partner was experienced. Re-pairing with an experienced partner occurred more frequently when divorcees changed nest than when they retained their nest. This study shows that even in strongly reduced populations, genetic diversity can be maintained, inbreeding does not necessarily occur, and random pairing is not risky in terms of pair lifetime reproductive success. Given, however, that we found no clear phenotypic mate choice criteria, the part played by non-morphological traits should be assessed more accurately in order to better understand seabird mating strategies.

Did Late Pleistocene climate change result in parallel genetic structure and demographic bottlenecks in sympatric Central African crocodiles, Mecistops and Osteolaemus?

The mid-Holocene has had profound demographic impacts on wildlife on the African continent, although there is little known about the impacts on species from Central Africa. Understanding the impacts of climate change on codistributed species can enhance our understanding of ecosystem dynamics and for formulating restoration objectives. We took a multigenome comparative approach to examine the phylogeographic structure of two poorly known Central African crocodile species-Mecistops sp. aff. cataphractus and Osteolaemus tetraspis. In addition, we conducted coalescent-based demographic reconstructions to test the hypothesis that population decline was driven by climate change since the Last Glacial Maximum, vs. more recent anthropogenic pressures. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model to reconstruct demographic history, we show that both species had dramatic declines (>97%) in effective population size in the 'period following the Last Glacial Maximum 1,500-18,000 YBP. Identification of genetic structuring showed both species have similar regional structure corresponding to major geological features (i.e., hydrologic basin) and that small observed differences between them are best explained by the differences in their ecology and the likely impact that climate change had on their habitat needs. Our results support our hypothesis that climatic effects, presumably on forest and wetland habitat, had a congruent negative impact on both species.

Microsatellite Mutation Rate in Atlantic Sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrinchus)

Understanding mutation rates can greatly extend the utility of population and conservation genetic analyses. Herein, we present an estimate of genome-wide microsatellite mutation rate in Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrinchus) based on parent-offspring transmission patterns. We screened 307 individuals for parentage and mutation-rate analysis applying 43 variable markers. Out of 13228 allele transfers, 11 mutations were detected, producing a mutation rate of 8.3 × 10-4 per locus per generation (95% confidence interval: 1.48 × 10-3, 4.15 × 10-4). Single-step mutations predominated and there were trends toward mutations in loci with greater polymorphism and allele length. Two of the detected mutations were most probably cluster mutations, being identified in 12 and 28 sibs, respectively. Finally, we observed evidences of polyploidy based on the sporadic presence of 3 or 4 alleles per locus in the genotyped individuals, supporting previous reports of incomplete diploidization in Atlantic sturgeon.

Demographic inference through approximate-Bayesian-computation skyline plots

The skyline plot is a graphical representation of historical effective population sizes as a function of time. Past population sizes for these plots are estimated from genetic data, without a priori assumptions on the mathematical function defining the shape of the demographic trajectory. Because of this flexibility in shape, skyline plots can, in principle, provide realistic descriptions of the complex demographic scenarios that occur in natural populations. Currently, demographic estimates needed for skyline plots are estimated using coalescent samplers or a composite likelihood approach. Here, we provide a way to estimate historical effective population sizes using an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework. We assess its performance using simulated and actual microsatellite datasets. Our method correctly retrieves the signal of contracting, constant and expanding populations, although the graphical shape of the plot is not always an accurate representation of the true demographic trajectory, particularly for recent changes in size and contracting populations. Because of the flexibility of ABC, similar approaches can be extended to other types of data, to multiple populations, or to other parameters that can change through time, such as the migration rate.

Testing models of refugial isolation, colonization and population connectivity in two species of montane salamanders

Pleistocene glaciations have profoundly affected patterns of genetic diversity within many species. Temperate alpine organisms likely experienced dramatic range shifts, given that much of their habitat was glaciated during this time. While the effects of glaciations are relatively well understood, the spatial locations of refugia and processes that gave rise to current patterns of diversity are less well known. We use a microsatellite data set to test hypotheses of population connectivity and refugial isolation in the web-toed salamanders (Hydromantes) of the Sierra Nevada. We reject models of refugia with subsequent expansion into either the high southern Sierra or low-elevation Owens Valley, in favor of a simple isolation model with no migration between current populations. We find no evidence of migration at even moderate spatial scales using a variety of analyses in the southern Sierra, and limited migration in the northern Sierra. These results suggest that divergence in isolation following fragmentation is the dominant process structuring genetic variation in these salamander species. In the context of anthropogenic climate change and habitat degradation, these results imply that salamanders and other low-vagility alpine organisms are at risk of decline as they are unlikely to migrate across large distances.

A Model of Compound Heterozygous, Loss-of-Function Alleles Is Broadly Consistent with Observations from Complex-Disease GWAS Datasets

The genetic component of complex disease risk in humans remains largely unexplained. A corollary is that the allelic spectrum of genetic variants contributing to complex disease risk is unknown. Theoretical models that relate population genetic processes to the maintenance of genetic variation for quantitative traits may suggest profitable avenues for future experimental design. Here we use forward simulation to model a genomic region evolving under a balance between recurrent deleterious mutation and Gaussian stabilizing selection. We consider multiple genetic and demographic models, and several different methods for identifying genomic regions harboring variants associated with complex disease risk. We demonstrate that the model of gene action, relating genotype to phenotype, has a qualitative effect on several relevant aspects of the population genetic architecture of a complex trait. In particular, the genetic model impacts genetic variance component partitioning across the allele frequency spectrum and the power of statistical tests. Models with partial recessivity closely match the minor allele frequency distribution of significant hits from empirical genome-wide association studies without requiring homozygous effect sizes to be small. We highlight a particular gene-based model of incomplete recessivity that is appealing from first principles. Under that model, deleterious mutations in a genomic region partially fail to complement one another. This model of gene-based recessivity predicts the empirically observed inconsistency between twin and SNP based estimated of dominance heritability. Furthermore, this model predicts considerable levels of unexplained variance associated with intralocus epistasis. Our results suggest a need for improved statistical tools for region based genetic association and heritability estimation.

Gene action determines how mutations affect phenotype. When placed in an evolutionary context, the details of the genotype-to-phenotype model can impact the maintenance of genetic variation for complex traits. Likewise, non-equilibrium demographic history may affect patterns of genetic variation. Here, we explore the impact of genetic model and population growth on distribution of genetic variance across the allele frequency spectrum underlying risk for a complex disease. Using forward-in-time population genetic simulations, we show that the genetic model has important impacts on the composition of variation for complex disease risk in a population. We explicitly simulate genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and perform heritability estimation on population samples. A particular model of gene-based partial recessivity, based on allelic non-complementation, aligns well with empirical results. This model is congruent with the dominance variance estimates from both SNPs and twins, and the minor allele frequency distribution of GWAS hits.