Risk Factors for Hospital Admission After a Fall: A Prospective Cohort Study of Community-Dwelling Older People

Systemic inflammation and subsequent risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: Prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

While systemic inflammation has been implicated in the etiology of selected neurodegenerative disorders, its role in the development of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), a condition with high case-fatality, is untested. Accordingly, we quantified the relationship of C-reactive protein (CRP), an acute-phase reactant and marker of systemic inflammation, with subsequent ALS occurrence.

METHODS

We used data from UK Biobank, a prospective cohort study of 502,649 participants who were aged 37 to 73 years when examined at research centers between 2006 and 2010. Venous blood was collected at baseline in the full cohort and assayed for CRP, and repeat measurement was made 3-7 years later in a representative subgroup (N = 14,514) enabling correction for regression dilution. ALS was ascertained via national hospitalization and mortality registries until 2021. We computed multivariable hazard ratios with accompanying 95% confidence intervals for log-transformed CRP expressed as standard deviation and tertiles.

RESULTS

In an analytical sample of 400,884 initially ALS-free individuals (218,203 women), a mean follow-up of 12 years gave rise to 231 hospitalizations and 223 deaths ascribed to ALS. After adjustment for covariates which included health behaviors, comorbidity, and socio-economic status, a one standard deviation higher log-CRP was associated with elevated rates of both ALS mortality (hazard ratios; 95% confidence intervals: 1.32; 1.13, 1.53) and hospitalizations (1.20; 1.00, 1.39). There was evidence of dose-response effects across tertiles of CRP for both outcomes (p for trend ≤ 0.05). Correction for regression dilution led to a strengthening of the relationship with CRP for both mortality (1.62; 1.27, 2.08) and hospitalizations (1.37; 1.05, 1.76).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher levels of CRP, a blood-based biomarker widely captured in clinical practice, is associated with moderately increased future risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

The role of geriatric syndromes in predicting unplanned hospitalizations: a population-based study using Minimum Data Set for Home Care

BACKGROUND

The predictive accuracies of screening instruments for identifying home-dwelling old people at risk of hospitalization have ranged from poor to moderate, particularly among the oldest persons. This study aimed to identify variables that could improve the accuracy of a Minimum Data Set for Home Care (MDS-HC) based algorithm, the Detection of Indicators and Vulnerabilities for Emergency Room Trips (DIVERT) Scale, in classifying home care clients' risk for unplanned hospitalization.

METHODS

In this register-based retrospective study, factors associated with hospitalization among home care clients aged ≥ 80 years in the City of Tampere, Finland, were analyzed by linking MDS-HC assessments with hospital discharge records. MDS-HC determinants associated with hospitalization within 180 days after the assessment were analyzed for clients at low (DIVERT 1), moderate (DIVERT 2-3) and high (DIVERT 4-6) risk of hospitalization. Then, two new variables were selected to supplement the DIVERT algorithm. Finally, area under curve (AUC) values of the original and modified DIVERT scales were determined using the data of MDS-HC assessments of all home care clients in the City of Tampere to examine if addition of the variables related to the oldest age groups improved the accuracy of DIVERT.

RESULTS

Of home care clients aged ≥ 80 years, 1,291 (65.4%) were hospitalized at least once during the two-year study period. Unplanned hospitalization occurred following 15.9%, 22.8%, and 33.9% MDS-HC assessments with DIVERT group 1, 2-3 and 4-6, respectively. Infectious diseases were the most common diagnosis within each DIVERT groups. Many MDS-HC variables not included in the DIVERT algorithm were associated with hospitalization, including e.g. poor self-rated health and old fracture (other than hip fracture) (p 0.001) in DIVERT 1; impaired cognition and decision-making, urinary incontinence, unstable walking and fear of falling (p < 0.001) in DIVERT 2-3; and urinary incontinence, poor self-rated health (p < 0.001), and decreased social interaction (p 0.001) in DIVERT 4-6. Adding impaired cognition and urinary incontinence to the DIVERT algorithm improved sensitivity but not accuracy (AUC 0.64 (95% CI 0.62-0.65) vs. 0.62 (0.60-0.64) of the original DIVERT). More admissions occurred among the clients with higher scores in the modified than in the original DIVERT scale.

CONCLUSIONS

Certain geriatric syndromes and diagnosis groups were associated with unplanned hospitalization among home care clients at low or moderate risk level of hospitalization. However, the predictive accuracy of the DIVERT could not be improved. In a complex clinical context of home care clients, more important than existence of a set of risk factors related to an algorithm may be the various individual combinations of risk factors.

Application of machine learning approaches in predicting clinical outcomes in older adults - a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Machine learning-based prediction models have the potential to have a considerable positive impact on geriatric care.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analyses.

PARTICIPANTS

Older adults (≥ 65 years) in any setting.

INTERVENTION

Machine learning models for predicting clinical outcomes in older adults were evaluated. A random-effects meta-analysis was conducted in two grouped cohorts, where the predictive models were compared based on their performance in predicting mortality i) under and including 6 months ii) over 6 months.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Studies were grouped into two groups by the clinical outcome, and the models were compared based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve metric.

RESULTS

Thirty-seven studies that satisfied the systematic review criteria were appraised, and eight studies predicting a mortality outcome were included in the meta-analyses. We could only pool studies by mortality as there were inconsistent definitions and sparse data to pool studies for other clinical outcomes. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve from the meta-analysis yielded a summary estimate of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.76 - 0.84) for mortality within 6 months and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.76 - 0.86) for mortality over 6 months, signifying good discriminatory power.

CONCLUSION

The meta-analysis indicates that machine learning models display good discriminatory power in predicting mortality. However, more large-scale validation studies are necessary. As electronic healthcare databases grow larger and more comprehensive, the available computational power increases and machine learning models become more sophisticated; there should be an effort to integrate these models into a larger research setting to predict various clinical outcomes.

Association between toileting and falls in older adults admitted to the emergency department and hospitalised: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to explore the potential risk factors associated with toileting-related falls in community-dwelling older adults who presented to the emergency department and were subsequently hospitalised.

DESIGN

This was a cross-sectional study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

This study was conducted in two teaching hospitals in Shanghai, China between October 2019 and December 2021 among community-dwelling adults aged ≥60 years.

METHODS

In-person interviews, physical assessment and medical record review were performed to collect data on the characteristics and risk factors of falls. Associations of toileting-related falls with demographic characteristics and geriatric syndromes were examined using logistic regression models.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Potential risk factors for toileting-related falls.

RESULTS

This study included 419 older patients with a mean age of 73.8±9.7 years. Among 60 (14.3%) patients with toileting-related falls (mean age: 78.8±9.2 years), 63.3% of toileting-related falls, mainly occurred between 00:00 and 05:59 hours, compared with 17.3% of non-toileting-related falls, which primarily occurred during the daytime. The rate of recurrent falls (35%) was significantly higher in the toileting-related falls group than in the non-toileting-related falls group (21.2%) (p=0.02). Logistic regression showed that visual impairment (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.1 to 7.1), cognitive impairment (OR 3.3, 95% CI 1.3 to 8.4), gait instability (OR 3.1, 95% CI 1.1 to 8.8) and urinary incontinence (OR 3.4, 95% CI 1.2 to 9.9) were strongly associated with toileting-related falls. Twenty-three (38.3%) patients in the toileting-related falls group had moderate and severe injuries, compared with 71.7% in the non-toileting-related falls group (p<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed that patients who reported toileting-related falls were more likely to have cognitive impairment, urinary incontinence, gait instability, visual impairment than patients who fell during other activities. Social and healthcare professionals should prioritise the management of toileting activities in older patients and provide targeted interventions to those in the high-risk group.

Prevalence and Predictors of Ambulatory Care Physicians' Documentation of Mobility Limitations in Older Adults

OBJECTIVE

To determine how often physicians document mobility limitations in visits with older adults, and which patient, physician, and practice characteristics associate with documented mobility limitations.

DESIGN

We completed a cross-sectional analysis of National Ambulatory Medical Care Surveys, years 2012-2016. Multivariate analyses were conducted to identify patient, physician, and practice-level factors associated with mobility limitation documentation.

SETTING

Ambulatory care visits.

PARTICIPANTS

We analyzed visits with adults 65 years and older. Final sample size represented 1.3 billion weighted visits.

INTERVENTION

Not applicable.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

We defined the presence/absence of a mobility limitation by whether any International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 or ICD-10 code related to mobility limitations, injury codes, or the patient's "reasons for visit" were documented in the visits.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of mobility limitation documentation was 2.4%. The most common codes were falls-related. Patient-level factors more likely to be associated with mobility limitation documentation were visits by individuals over 85 years of age, relative to 65-69 years, (odds ratio 2.32, 95% confidence interval 1.76-3.07]; with a comorbid diagnosis of arthritis (odds ratio 1.35, 1.18-2.01); and with a comorbid diagnosis of cerebrovascular disease (odds ratio 1.60, 1.13-2.26). Patient-level factors less likely to be associated with mobility limitation documentation were visits by men (odds ratio 0.80, 0.64-0.99); individuals with a cancer diagnosis (odds ratio 0.76, 0.58-0.99); and by individuals seeking care for a chronic problem (relative to a new problem [odds ratio 0.36, 0.29-0.44]). Physician-level factors associated with an increased likelihood of mobility limitation documentation were visits to neurologists (odds ratios 4.48, 2.41-8.32) and orthopedists (odds ratio 2.67, 1.49-4.79) compared with primary care physicians. At the practice-level, mobility documentation varied based on the percentage of practice revenue from Medicare.

CONCLUSIONS

Mobility limitations are under-documented and may be primarily captured when changes in function are overt.

Systemic inflammation and subsequent risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: prospective cohort study

Importance

While systemic inflammation has been implicated in the aetiology of selected neurodegenerative disorders, its role in the development of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is untested.

Objective

To quantify the relationship of C-reactive protein (CRP), an acute-phase reactant and marker of systemic inflammation, with ALS occurrence.

Design Setting Participants

UK Biobank, a prospective cohort study of 502,649 participants who were aged 37 to 73 years when examined at research centres between 2006 and 2010.

Exposure

Venous blood was collected at baseline in the full cohort and assayed for CRP. Repeat measurement was made 3-7 years later in a representative subgroup (N=14,514) enabling correction for regression dilution.

Main Outcomes and Measures

ALS as ascertained via national hospitalisation and mortality registries. We computed multi-variable hazard ratios with accompanying 95% confidence intervals for log-transformed CRP expressed as standard deviation and tertiles.

Results

In an analytical sample of 400,884 individuals (218,203 women), a mean follow-up of 12 years gave rise to 231 hospitalisations and 223 deaths ascribed to ALS. After adjustment for covariates which included health behaviours, comorbidity, and socio-economic status, a one standard deviation higher log-CRP was associated with elevated rates of both ALS mortality (hazard ratios; 95% confidence intervals: 1.32; 1.13, 1.53) and hospitalisations (1.20; 1.00, 1.39). There was evidence of dose-response effects across tertiles of CRP for both outcomes (p for trend≤0.05). Correction for regression dilution led to a strengthening of the relationship with CRP for both mortality (1.62; 1.27, 2.08) and hospitalisations (1.37; 1.05, 1.76) ascribed to ALS.

Conclusions and Relevance

Higher levels of CRP, a blood-based biomarker widely captured in clinical practice, were associated with a higher subsequent risk of ALS.

Key Points

Question: Is C-reactive protein (CRP), a marker of systemic inflammation widely used in clinical practice, associated with later risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS)?Findings: Following 11 years disease surveillance in 400,884 individuals (218,203 women), after adjustment for covariates and correction for regression dilution, a one standard deviation higher CRP levels were associations with both mortality (hazard ratio; 95% confidence interval: 1.62; 1.27, 2.08) and hospitalisations (1.37; 1.05, 1.76) ascribed to ALS.Meaning: In the present study, CRP has a dose-response relationship with the risk of later ALS.

Injury-related emergency department use among assisted living residents with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias

BACKGROUND

Injuries are a leading cause of emergency department (ED) visits among older adults, and individuals with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) may be at particular risk. We compared injury-related ED use among assisted living (AL) residents with and without ADRD and assessed differences in the risk of injury-related ED visits among individuals with ADRD residing in ALs with memory care designation versus general AL.

METHODS

Using Medicare claims, we identified a cohort of fee-for-service beneficiaries who lived in AL in 2018 and resided in one of 20 states with site-specific information on memory care designation (n = 116,754). Outcomes included all injury-related ED visits and injury-related ED visits resulting in hospitalization in the calendar year 2018. We fit multilevel models of the association between ADRD and outcomes, adjusting for resident demographic characteristics and chronic conditions, license type characteristics, and AL characteristics, with random intercepts at the AL and license type levels. Among residents with ADRD, we examined whether memory care licensure was associated with injury-related ED visits.

RESULTS

The adjusted risk of injury-related ED use during the year was 20.1% (95% CI: 19.6%, 20.6%) for residents with ADRD compared to 16.1% for residents without ADRD (95% CI: 15.7%, 16.5%; p < 0.001). The adjusted risk of injury-related ED use ending in hospitalization was 4.9% (95% CI: 4.6%, 5.1%) for AL residents with ADRD and 3.9% for residents without ADRD (95% CI: 3.8%, 4.1%; p < 0.001). There were no significant differences in injury-related ED visits between residents with ADRD in ALs with memory care designation and residents in general AL.

CONCLUSIONS

Injury-related ED visits are common among AL residents with ADRD and residents in memory care, but residents in memory care AL experienced similar risks of injury as those in general AL. Further research should identify modifiable factors that can prevent injury among AL residents with ADRD.

The understanding and experience of falls among community-dwelling adults aged 50 and over living with mental illness: A qualitative study

OBJECTIVES

Compared to the general older population, older adults living with mental illness are at greater risk of falling and these risks can be present from middle age. This study aimed to explore the understanding of falls and the experiences community-dwelling adults aged 50 years and over living with mental illness who have had a fall, and to identify any falls prevention strategies valued by them.

METHODS

A qualitative descriptive approach was adopted. Ten adults with past experience of falls were recruited at a community mental health service in Sydney, Australia. Semi-structured interviews were conducted between July and September 2018. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and data were thematically analysed.

RESULTS

Three major themes emerged: (1) making sense of falls, (2) being self-reliant and enduring the consequences of falls, and (3) preventing future falls - perceptions and strategies. Most participants in this study were uncertain about the cause of their falls and seemed to have limited understanding of falls risk factors. They were also less likely to seek help after a fall, despite an injury. Consequences of falls included physical injuries and negative emotional impacts experienced following a fall. Most participants expressed a certain degree of concern regarding future falls, however, their strategy to prevent falls was to simply "be careful."

CONCLUSION

Adults aged over 50 years and living with mental illness in the community need support to identify and manage their falls risk. Fall prevention interventions tailored to the needs of this population are needed.

Pre-Morbid Risk Factors for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: Prospective Cohort Study

AIM

In the absence of effective treatments for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), a neurodegenerative disorder with high case fatality, there is a clear need to identify its primary risk factors.

METHODS

UK Biobank is a prospective cohort study in which baseline data were captured between 2006 and 2010 in 502,649 participants aged 37 to 73 years. Follow-up for ALS hospitalisations and death was made via national registries.

RESULTS

Eleven years of event surveillance gave rise to 301 hospitalisations and 279 deaths due to ALS. After adjustment for selected confounding factors, being older (hazard ratio per 10 year increase; 95% confidence interval: 1.92; 1.58, 2.33) and male (1.37; 1.00, 1.87) were associated with elevated rates of hospitalisation for ALS. Similar effects were apparent when death ascribed to the disorder was the outcome of interest. Of the remaining 23 social, biological, and behavioural risk indices, however, there was only a suggestion that taller people experienced an increased risk of hospitalisation (per SD increase: 1.31; 1.09, 1.59).

CONCLUSION

In the present, large-scale study, other than well known associations, we did not find convincing evidence of links with ALS for other risk indices.

The impact of urinary incontinence on falls: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

Previous studies on the association between urinary incontinence (UI) and falls have reported conflicting results. We, therefore, aimed to evaluate and clarify this association through a systematic review and meta-analysis of relevant studies.

METHODS

We performed a literature search for relevant studies in databases including PubMed and EMBASE from inception up to December 13, 2020, using several search terms related to UI and falls. Based on the data reported in these studies, we calculated the pooled odds ratios (ORs) for falls and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using the Mantel-Haenszel method.

RESULTS

This meta-analysis included 38 articles and a total of 230,129 participants. UI was significantly associated with falls (OR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.45-1.83). Subgroup analyses based on the age and sex of the participants revealed a significant association between UI and falls in older (≥65 years) participants (OR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.31-1.93), and in both men (OR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.57-2.25) and women (OR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.29-1.54). Subgroup analysis based on the definition of falls revealed a significant association between UI and falls (≥1 fall event) (OR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.42-1.82) and recurrent falls (≥2 fall events) (OR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.49-1.78). According to the UI type, a significant association between UI and falls was observed in patients with urgency UI (OR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.15-1.70) and those with stress UI (OR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.39-2.15).

CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis, which was based on evidence from a review of the published literature, clearly demonstrated that UI is an important risk factor for falls in both general and older populations.