Fracture Risk Assessment in Long-term Care (FRAiL): Development and Validation of a Prediction Model

Pharmacists Improving Osteoporosis Management in Long-Term Care Using Fracture Risk Assessments: A Feasibility Study

OBJECTIVES

The primary outcome of this study is to test the feasibility of pharmacists completing Fracture Risk Scale (FRS) assessments using resident data routinely held by long-term care (LTC) facilities. Secondary outcomes are to ascertain the proportion of residents assessed as high fracture risk who currently receive osteoporosis medicines and explore whether under- or overuse of osteoporosis medicines is occurring based on residents' fracture risk.

DESIGN

Feasibility study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Four LTC facilities from southeast Queensland, Australia, with a total of 281 residents participated in the study during April and May 2024.

METHODS

A pharmacist reviewed individual resident files for all residents of participating facilities. Necessary data were extracted from resident files to determine their fracture risk using the FRS manual calculation tool. Residents' use of osteoporosis medicines and nutritional supplements (vitamin D and calcium) was analyzed based on their calculated fracture risk.

RESULTS

FRS assessments were completed for 275 residents (97.9%). There were 149 residents (54.2%) assessed as having a high fracture risk, of which 43 (28.9%) were prescribed an osteoporosis medicine. Conversely, 28 residents (22.2%) with a low fracture risk received an osteoporosis medicine. Underuse of vitamin D and calcium supplements was found for all residents, irrespective of fracture risk.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

The feasibility of pharmacists completing FRS assessments was demonstrated. Incorporating the FRS into routine clinical practice provides a promising means to support pharmacists advising on osteoporosis prescribing decisions for LTC residents. Widespread underuse of vitamin D and calcium for all LTC residents and the underuse of osteoporosis medicines by residents with a high fracture risk were found. Future research is necessary to establish if incorporating the FRS into clinical practice can address this undertreatment and reduce fracture rates in LTC.

Risk factors and socioeconomic determinants of falls among older adults

Background

Falls are included in this category due to their high prevalence among people over 60 years of age. The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between the frequency of falls and selected socioeconomic factors.

Methods

The study was conducted among 351 patients of a rehabilitation clinic and center. The research method was a structured diagnostic survey using the Falls Risk Assessment Tool (FRAT) to collect data on fall incidence and associated risk factors.

Results

A significant relationship was found between the age of the participants, their level of education (p = 0.00015), and the type of work previously performed (p = 0.00039) and the frequency of falls. The frequency of falls increased with age, and falls were more common among less educated individuals and those who previously performed physical work. A significant relationship was also found between marital status (p = 0.00039), material status (p = 0.004), and the number of people in the household (p = 0.002) and the frequency of falls. Falls were most frequent among widowed individuals and those with poorer financial situations. People living alone and those living in households with more than two members experienced falls more often.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that educational background and financial constraints may contribute to fall risk, emphasizing the need for targeted fall prevention programs among vulnerable populations.

Hip fracture rate and osteoporosis treatment in Ontario: A population-based retrospective cohort study

This population-based study analyzes hip fracture and osteoporosis treatment rates among older adults, stratified by place of residence prior to fracture. Hip fracture rates were higher among older adults living in the community and discharged to long-term care (LTC) after fracture, compared to LTC residents and older adults living in the community. Only 23% of LTC residents at high fracture risk received osteoporosis treatment.

PURPOSE

This population-based study examines hip fracture rate and osteoporosis management among long-term care (LTC) residents > 65 years of age compared to community-dwelling older adults at the time of fracture and admitted to LTC after fracture, in Ontario, Canada.

METHODS

Healthcare utilization and administrative databases were linked using unique, encoded identifiers from the ICES Data Repository to estimate hip fractures (identified using the Public Health Agency of Canada algorithm and International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes) and osteoporosis management (pharmacotherapy) among adults > 66 years from April 1, 2014 to March 31, 2018. Sex-specific and age-standardized rates were compared by pre-fracture residency and discharge location (i.e., LTC to LTC, community to LTC, or community to community). Fracture risk was determined using the Fracture Risk Scale (FRS).

RESULTS

At baseline (2014/15), the overall age-standardized hip fracture rate among LTC residents was 223 per 10,000 person-years (173 per 10,000 females and 157 per 10,000 males), 509 per 10,000 person-years (468 per 10,000 females and 320 per 10,000 males) among the community to LTC cohort, and 31.5 per 10,000 person-years (43.1 per 10,000 females and 25.6 per 10,000 males). During the 5-year observation period, the overall annual average percent change (APC) for hip fracture increased significantly in LTC (AAPC =  + 8.6 (95% CI 5.0 to 12.3; p = 0.004) compared to the community to LTC group (AAPC =  + 2.5 (95% CI - 3.0 to 8.2; p = 0.248)) and the community-to-community cohort (AAPC - 3.8 (95% CI - 6.7 to - 0.7; p = 030)). However, hip fracture rate remained higher in the community to LTC group over the study period. There were 33,594 LTC residents identified as high risk of fracture (FRS score 4 +), of which 7777 were on treatment (23.3%).

CONCLUSION

Overall, hip fracture rates have increased in LTC and among community-dwelling adults admitted to LTC after fracture. However, hip fracture rates among community-dwelling adults have decreased over time. A non-significant increase in osteoporosis treatment rates was observed among LTC residents at high risk of fracture (FRS4 +). Residents in LTC are at very high risk for fracture and require individualized based on goals of care and life expectancy.

Predictive value of machine learning on fracture risk in osteoporosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Early identification of fracture risk in patients with osteoporosis is essential. Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a promising technique to predict the risk, whereas its predictive performance remains controversial. Therefore, we conducted this systematic review and meta-analysis to explore the predictive efficiency of ML for the risk of fracture in patients with osteoporosis.

METHODS

Relevant studies were retrieved from four databases (PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library and Web of Science) until 31 May 2023. A meta-analysis of the C-index was performed using a random-effects model, while a bivariate mixed-effects model was used for the meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity. In addition, subgroup analysis was performed according to the types of ML models and fracture sites.

RESULTS

Fifty-three studies were included in our meta-analysis, involving 15 209 268 patients, 86 prediction models specifically developed for the osteoporosis population and 41 validation sets. The most commonly used predictors in these models encompassed age, BMI, past fracture history, bone mineral density T-score, history of falls, BMD, radiomics data, weight, height, gender and other chronic diseases. Overall, the pooled C-index of ML was 0.75 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.78) and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.78) in the training set and validation set, respectively; the pooled sensitivity was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.84) and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.80, 0.81) in the training set and validation set, respectively; and the pooled specificity was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.75, 0.86) and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.90) in the training set and validation set, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

ML has a favourable predictive performance for fracture risk in patients with osteoporosis. However, most current studies lack external validation. Thus, external validation is required to verify the reliability of ML models.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022346896.

A machine learning-based scoring system and ten factors associated with hip fracture occurrence in the elderly

Hip fractures are fragility fractures frequently seen in persons over 80-years-old. Although various factors, including decreased bone mineral density and a history of falls, are reported as hip fracture risks, few large-scale studies have confirmed their relevance to individuals older than 80, and tools to assess contributions of various risks to fracture development and the degree of risk are lacking. We recruited 1395 fresh hip fracture patients and 1075 controls without hip fractures and comprehensively evaluated various reported risk factors and their association with hip fracture development. We initially constructed a predictive model using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), a machine learning algorithm, incorporating all 40 variables and evaluated the model's performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), yielding a value of 0.87. We also employed SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values to evaluate each feature importance and ranked the top 20. We then used a stepwise selection method to determine key factors sequentially until the AUC reached a plateau nearly equal to that of all variables and identified the top 10 sufficient to evaluate hip fracture risk. For each, we determined the cutoff value for hip fracture occurrence and calculated scores of each variable based on the respective feature importance. Individual scores were: serum 25(OH)D levels (<10 ng/ml, score 7), femoral neck T-score (<-3, score 5), Barthel index score (<100, score 3), maximal handgrip strength (<18 kg, score 3), GLFS-25 score (≥24, score 2), number of falls in previous 12 months (≥3, score 2), serum IGF-1 levels (<50 ng/ml, score 2), cups of tea/day (≥5, score -2), use of anti-osteoporosis drugs (yes, score -2), and BMI (<18.5 kg/m2, score 1). Using these scores, we performed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and the resultant optimal cutoff value was 7, with a specificity of 0.78, sensitivity of 0.75, and AUC of 0.85. These ten factors and the scoring system may represent tools useful to predict hip fracture.

Prescriber Perspectives and Experiences with Deprescribing Versus Continuing Bisphosphonates in Older Nursing Home Residents with Dementia

BACKGROUND

Few guidelines address fracture prevention medication use in nursing home (NH) residents with dementia.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to identify factors that influence prescriber decision-making for deprescribing of bisphosphonates for older NH residents with dementia.

METHODS

We conducted 12 semi-structured interviews with prescribers who care for older adults with dementia in NHs.

MAIN MEASURES

Interview prompts addressed experiences treating fractures, benefits, and harms of bisphosphonates, and experiences with deprescribing. Coding was guided by the social-ecological framework including patient-level (intrapersonal) and external (interpersonal, system, community, and policy) influences.

RESULTS

Most prescribers were physicians (83%); 75% were female and 75% were White. Most (75%) spent less than half of their clinical effort in NHs and half were in the first decade of practice. Among patient-level influences, prescribers uniformly agreed that a prior bisphosphonate treatment course of several years, emergence of adverse effects, and changing goals of care or limited life expectancy were compelling reasons to deprescribe. External influences were frequently discussed as barriers to deprescribing. At the interpersonal level, prescribers noted that family/informal caregivers are diverse in their involvement in decision-making, and frequently concerned about the adverse effects of bisphosphonates, but perceive deprescribing as "withdrawing care." At the health system level, prescribers felt that frequent transitions make it difficult to determine duration of prior treatment and to implement deprescribing. At the policy level, prescribers highlighted the lack of guidelines addressing residents with limited mobility and dementia or criteria for deprescribing, including uncertainty in the setting of prior fractures and lack of bone densitometry in NHs.

CONCLUSION

Systems-level barriers to evaluating bone densitometry and treatment history in NHs may impede person-centered decision-making for fracture prevention. Further research is needed to evaluate the residual benefits of bisphosphonates in medically complex residents with limited mobility and dementia to inform recommendations for deprescribing versus continued use.

Nursing Home PRevention of Injury in DEmentia (NH PRIDE): A pilot study of a remote injury prevention service for NH residents

BACKGROUND

Medication optimization, including prescription of osteoporosis medications and deprescribing medications associated with falls, may reduce injurious falls. Our objective was to describe a remote, injury prevention service (NH PRIDE) designed to optimize medication use in nursing homes (NHs), and to describe its implementation outcomes in a pilot study.

METHODS

This was a non-randomized trial (pilot study) including NH staff and residents from five facilities. Long-stay residents at high-risk for injurious falls were identified using a validated risk calculator and staff referral. A remote team reviewed the electronic health record (EHR) and provided recommendations as Injury Prevention Plans (IPP). A research nurse served as a care coordinator focused on resident engagement and shared decision-making. Outcomes included implementation measures, as identified in the EHR, and surveys and interviews with staff.

RESULTS

Across five facilities, 274 residents were screened for eligibility, and 46 residents (16.8%) were enrolled. Most residents were female (73.9%) and had dementia (63.0%). An IPP was completed for 45 residents (97.8%). The nurse made a total of 93 deprescribing recommendations in 36 residents (80% of residents had one or more deprescribing recommendation; mean 2.2 recommendations/resident). Twenty of 45 residents (44.4%) had a recommendation for osteoporosis treatment. Among residents with recommendations, 21/36 (58.3%) had one or more deprescribing orders written and 6/20 (30.0%) had an osteoporosis medication prescribed. At 4 months, most medication changes persisted. Adverse side effects were rare. Staff members identified several areas for program refinement, including aligning recommendations with provider workflow and engaging consultant psychiatrists.

CONCLUSIONS

A remote injury prevention service is safe and feasible to enhance deprescribing and osteoporosis treatment in long-stay NH residents at risk for injury. Additional investigation is needed to determine if this model could reduce injurious falls when deployed across NH chains.

Perceptions and practices of aged care pharmacists regarding osteoporosis management: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Osteoporosis is a common but sub-optimally managed disease among aged care residents. Although pharmacists are one of the key healthcare providers responsible for osteoporosis medication management there is limited research on their involvement.

AIM

This study explored the perceptions and practices of Australian pharmacists regarding osteoporosis management for aged care residents.

METHOD

Semi-structured interviews were conducted with aged care pharmacists. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and analysed using a constructivist grounded theory approach.

RESULTS

Twenty-one aged care pharmacists were interviewed. Three main themes were identified: osteoporosis is highly prevalent but given low priority, factors affecting pharmacists' management of osteoporosis, and optimism for the future role of pharmacists in osteoporosis management. The complexity of aged care residents' healthcare needs and the silent, insidious nature of osteoporosis contribute to the low priority it is afforded. Barriers identified by pharmacists included their current practice model, limited access to residents' medical histories and difficulties accessing bone mineral density (BMD) testing. Interdisciplinary collaboration and education regarding osteoporosis management were seen as facilitators. Pharmacists were optimistic that an embedded practice model would improve their capacity to influence osteoporosis management.

CONCLUSION

The high prevalence and low priority of osteoporosis in the aged care setting presents pharmacists with an opportunity to improve medication management and reduce fracture risk. Barriers to osteoporosis management identified by pharmacists can be addressed by interdisciplinary collaboration and education. Pharmacists being embedded in aged care could enable more opportunities to contribute to the interdisciplinary team and become champions of osteoporosis management.

The balance of prescriptive and dynamic regulatory policies in nursing homes: Lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic

See related Brief report by Festa et al. in this issue.

Development and validation of the fall-related injury risk in nursing homes (INJURE-NH) prediction tool

BACKGROUND

Existing models to predict fall-related injuries (FRI) in nursing homes (NH) focus on hip fractures, yet hip fractures comprise less than half of all FRIs. We developed and validated a series of models to predict the absolute risk of FRIs in NH residents.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of long-stay US NH residents (≥100 days in the same facility) between January 1, 2016 and December 31, 2017 (n = 733,427) using Medicare claims and Minimum Data Set v3.0 clinical assessments. Predictors of FRIs were selected through LASSO logistic regression in a 2/3 random derivation sample and tested in a 1/3 validation sample. Sub-distribution hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated for 6-month and 2-year follow-up. Discrimination was evaluated via C-statistic, and calibration compared the predicted rate of FRI to the observed rate. To develop a parsimonious clinical tool, we calculated a score using the five strongest predictors in the Fine-Gray model. Model performance was repeated in the validation sample.

RESULTS

Mean (Q1, Q3) age was 85.0 (77.5, 90.6) years and 69.6% were women. Within 2 years of follow-up, 43,976 (6.0%) residents experienced ≥1 FRI. Seventy predictors were included in the model. The discrimination of the 2-year prediction model was good (C-index = 0.70), and the calibration was excellent. Calibration and discrimination of the 6-month model were similar (C-index = 0.71). In the clinical tool to predict 2-year risk, the five characteristics included independence in activities of daily living (ADLs) (HR 2.27; 95% CI 2.14-2.41) and a history of non-hip fracture (HR 2.02; 95% CI 1.94-2.12). Performance results were similar in the validation sample.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated a series of risk prediction models that can identify NH residents at greatest risk for FRI. In NH, these models should help target preventive strategies.

Screening of Fracture Risk and Osteoporosis Among Older Long-term Care Residents: A Prospective Study

This prospective study assessed the effectiveness of screening older long-term care residents (LTCRs) for fracture risk and osteoporosis in Taiwan. Fracture risk screening was done using the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX), and those with high or moderate risk were offered osteoporosis workup and treatment at the hospital. Among 785 LTCRs screened, 338 men (mean age 75.6) and 447 women (mean age 81.2) were included. Only 5.2% of women and no men were using anti-osteoporosis medication. Based on the Bone Health and Osteoporosis Foundation (BHOF) recommendations, 69.2% of men and 92.6% of women were classified as high fracture risk. In 110 participants willing to receive bone mineral density examination, osteoporosis was diagnosed in 86.2% of women and half of men. FRAX could effectively differentiate fracture risk in 648 LTCRs who completed 2-year follow-ups; no fracture occurred in the low-risk group. The study emphasizes the importance of fracture risk screening to enhance osteoporosis diagnosis and treatment among LTCRs.

Application of intelligent X-ray image analysis in risk assessment of osteoporotic fracture of femoral neck in the elderly

The paper focuses on establishing a risk assessment model of femoral neck osteoporotic fracture (FNOF) in the elderly population and improving the screening efficiency and accuracy of such diseases in specific populations. In literature research, the main risk factors of femoral neck osteoporosis (FNOP) in the elderly were studied and analyzed; the femur region of interest (ROI) and the hard bone edge segmentation model were selected from the X-ray digital image by using the image depth learning method. On this basis, the femoral trabecular score and femoral neck strength (FNS) in the set region were selected as the main evaluation elements, and the quantitative analysis method was established; an X-ray image processing method was applied to the feasibility study of FNOP and compared with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry measurements of bone mineral density; Finally, the main risk factors of FNOP were selected and the prediction model of FNOP in the elderly population was established based on medical image processing, machine learning model construction and other methods. Some FNOP health records were selected as test samples for comparative analysis with traditional manual evaluation methods. The paper shows the risk assessment model of FNOF in the elderly population, which is feasible in testing. Among them, the artificial neural network model had a better accuracy (95.83%) and recall rate (100.00%), and the support vector machine prediction model had high specificity (62.50%). With the help of a machine learning method to establish the risk assessment model of FNOF for the elderly, one can provide decision support for the fracture risk assessment of the elderly and remind the clinic to give targeted interventions for the above high-risk groups in order to reduce the fracture risk.

Controversies in Osteoporosis Treatment of Nursing Home Residents

Osteoporotic fractures are a common and serious health problem for older adults living in nursing homes (NHs). Risk of fracture increases with age and dementia status, yet gaps in evidence result in controversies around when to start and stop treatment for osteoporosis in NH residents, particularly those who have high fracture risk but have limited life expectancy. In this article, we discuss these areas of controversy. We provide an overview of current guidelines that explicitly address osteoporosis treatment strategies for NH residents, review the evidence for osteoporosis medications in NH residents, and use these sources to suggest practical recommendations for clinical practice and for research. Three published guidelines (from the United States, Canada, and Australia) and several studies provide the current basis for clinical decisions about osteoporosis treatment for NH residents. Practical approaches may include broad use of vitamin D and selective use of osteoporosis medication based on risks, benefits, and goals of care. Clinicians still lack strong evidence to guide treatment of NH residents with advanced dementia, multimorbidity, or severe mobility impairment. Future priorities for research include identifying optimal approaches to risk stratification and prevention strategies for NH residents and evaluating the risk-benefit profile of pharmacologic treatments for osteoporosis NH residents across key clinical strata. In the absence of such evidence, decisions for initiating and continuing treatment should reflect a patient-centered approach that incorporates life expectancy, goals of care, and the potential burden of treatment.

Use of antiretroviral therapy in nursing home residents with HIV

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapies (ARTs) are essential HIV care. As people living with HIV age and their presence in nursing homes (NHs) increases, it is critical to evaluate the quality of HIV care. We determine the rate of ART use and examine individual- and facility-level characteristics associated with no ART use in a nationally representative long-stay NH residents with HIV.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included all long-stay Medicare fee-for-service NH residents (2013-2016) with HIV who had a valid Minimum Data Set assessment. Residents were followed from long-stay qualification until death, Part D disenrollment, transfer from long-term care to another healthcare setting, or December 31, 2016. We identified individual and facility characteristics that were associated with non-use of ART using generalized estimating equation logistic regression.

RESULTS

Exactly 4171 eligible HIV+ residents from 2459 NHs were included in our study. Only 36% (1507 of 4171) received any ART regimen during an average of 11.6 months of observation. Older age, females, white race, receipt of Medicare skilled nursing benefits, and some major cardiometabolic comorbidities and mental health conditions were associated with non-ART use. Rates of non-ART use did not vary significantly by residents' end-of-life status (p = 0.21). Residents in facilities with a higher HIV concentration [adjusted odds ratio (adjOR) 3.42; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.13-5.48] and an AIDS unit (adjOR 2.51; 95% CI 1.92-3.30) had higher odds of using an ART.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

The rate of ART use by HIV+ long-stay NH residents was low. Facilities' experience with HIV played an important role in ART receipt. Interventions to improve rates of ART use in NHs are urgently needed to ensure optimal health outcomes.

Skeletal Aging

Aging represents the single greatest risk factor for chronic diseases, including osteoporosis, a skeletal fragility syndrome that increases fracture risk. Optimizing bone strength throughout life reduces fracture risk. Factors critical for bone strength include nutrition, physical activity, and vitamin D status, whereas unhealthy lifestyles, illnesses, and certain medications (eg, glucocorticoids) are detrimental. Hormonal status is another important determinant of skeletal health, with sex steroid concentrations, particularly estrogen, having major effects on bone remodeling. Aging exacerbates bone loss in both sexes and results in imbalanced bone resorption relative to formation; it is associated with increased marrow adiposity, osteoblast/osteocyte apoptosis, and accumulation of senescent cells. The mechanisms underlying skeletal aging are as diverse as the factors that determine the strength (and thus fragility) of bone. This review updates our current understanding of the epidemiology, pathophysiology, and treatment of osteoporosis and provides an overview of the underlying hallmark mechanisms that drive skeletal aging.

External validation of a new predictive model for falls among inpatients using the official Japanese ADL scale, Bedriddenness ranks: a double-centered prospective cohort study

Background

Several reliable predictive models for falls have been reported, but are too complicated and time-consuming to evaluate. We recently developed a new predictive model using just eight easily-available parameters including the official Japanese activities of daily living scale, Bedriddenness ranks, from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. This model has not yet been prospectively validated. This study aims to prospectively validate our new predictive model for falls among inpatients admitted to two different hospitals.

Methods

A double-centered prospective cohort study was performed from October 1, 2018, to September 30, 2019 in an acute care hospital and a chronic care hospital. We analyzed data from all adult inpatients, for whom all data required by the predictive model were evaluated and recorded. The eight items required by the predictive model were age, gender, emergency admission, department of admission, use of hypnotic medications, previous falls, independence of eating, and Bedriddenness ranks. The main outcome is in-hospital falls among adult inpatients, and the model was assessed by area under the curve.

Results

A total of 3,551 adult participants were available, who experienced 125 falls (3.5%). The median age (interquartile range) was 78 (66–87) years, 1,701 (47.9%) were men, and the incidence of falls was 2.25 per 1,000 patient-days and 2.06 per 1,000 occupied bed days. The area under the curve of the model was 0.793 (95% confidence interval: 0.761–0.825). The cutoff value was set as − 2.18, making the specificity 90% with the positive predictive value and negative predictive value at 11.4% and 97%.

Conclusions

This double-centered prospective cohort external validation study showed that the new predictive model had excellent validity for falls among inpatients. This reliable and easy-to-use model is therefore recommended for prediction of falls among inpatients, to improve preventive interventions.

Trial registration

UMIN000040103 (2020/04/08)

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-022-02871-5.

Pharmacologic Interventions for Fracture Risk Reduction in the Oldest Old: What Is the Evidence?

With an increasingly older population, the proportion of patients 85 years or older seeking interventions to protect their musculoskeletal health is growing. Osteoporosis in the geriatric population presents unique diagnostic and therapeutic challenges. Multimorbidity, frailty, falls, polypharmacy, and other neurobehavioral factors influence our approach to fracture prevention in this population. The vast majority of the evidence from clinical trials establish pharmacologic fracture efficacy in postmenopausal women. The evidence is scarce for the oldest old men and women, a population also at risk for adverse events and mortality. Most studies show continued efficacy of pharmacologic interventions in this age group, although they are largely limited by small sample sizes. We herein review the available evidence of pharmacologic interventions for fracture risk reduction in this population and explore the emerging senotherapeutic interventions in the pipeline. © 2021 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Number of teeth is associated with hip fracture and femoral neck bone mineral density in the NHANES

PURPOSE/INTRODUCTION

Tooth loss has been found to be associated with fractures and osteoporosis. However, the associations between number of teeth with bone mineral density as well as with hip fractures have not been explored in the same study setting.

METHODS

Data from the cross-sectional National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2005-2010, 2013-2014, and 2017-2018) with completed femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) measurements, osteoporosis questionnaires, and dentition examinations were analyzed. A total of 15,198 participants, with a mean age of 53.9 and diverse ethnicity, males (52%), and females (48%), were analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression analyses for self-reported hip fractures, self-reported osteoporosis, and measured low femoral BMD accounting for traditional risk factors were tested for the total number of natural teeth (NoT) present, or by NoT in the anterior or posterior segments.

RESULTS

Subjects with fewer natural teeth present were more likely to report a hip fracture, osteoporosis, or having lower levels of femoral neck BMD. With one additional tooth present in the mouth, there was a decreased association with self-reported hip fracture [OR(95%CI) = 0.98(0.96-0.99); P = 0.005] or with less likelihood of having low femoral neck BMD [OR(95%CI) = 0.99(0.97-1.00); P = 0.007].

CONCLUSIONS

With the limitation of the cross-sectional study design, results should be interpreted cautiously, yet our analyses point to an association between a decreased number of natural teeth present and self-reported hip fractures or low femoral neck BMD. The number of teeth present could be potentially utilized for assessing risks of hip fracture and osteoporosis. Future research is needed to validate our findings.

Comparative effectiveness of denosumab, teriparatide, and zoledronic acid among frail older adults: a retrospective cohort study

The comparative effects of zoledronic acid, denosumab, and teriparatide for preventing hip fractures in frail older adults, especially those in nursing homes, were unknown. We found that denosumab and zoledronic acid may be as effective as teriparatide for hip fracture prevention in nursing home residents.

INTRODUCTION

Several non-oral drugs exist for osteoporosis treatment, including zoledronic acid (ZA), denosumab, and teriparatide. Little data exist on the comparative effectiveness of these drugs for hip fracture prevention in frail older adults. We examined their comparative effectiveness in one of the frailest segments of the US population-nursing home (NH) residents.

METHODS

We conducted a national retrospective cohort study of NH residents aged ≥ 65 years using 2012 to 2016 national US Minimum Data Set clinical assessment data and linked Medicare claims. New parenteral ZA, denosumab, and teriparatide use was assessed via Medicare Parts B and D; hip fracture outcomes via Part A; and 125 covariates for confounding adjustment via several datasets. We used inverse probability weighted (IPW) competing risk regression models to compare hip fracture risk between groups with teriparatide as the reference.

RESULTS

The study cohort (N = 2019) included 1046 denosumab, 578 teriparatide, and 395 ZA initiators. Mean age was 85 years, 90% were female, and 68% had at least moderate functional impairment. Seventy-two residents (3.6%) had a hip fracture and 1100 (54.5%) died over a mean follow-up of 1.5 years. Compared to teriparatide use, denosumab use was associated with a 46% lower risk of hip fracture (HR 0.54, 95% CI 0.29-1.00) and no difference was observed for ZA (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.26-1.85).

CONCLUSIONS

Denosumab and ZA may be as effective as teriparatide for hip fracture prevention in frail older adults. Given their lower cost and easier administration, denosumab and ZA are likely preferable non-oral treatments for most frail, older adults.

Development and Validation of a Risk Score to Predict the First Hip Fracture in the Oldest Old: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

To evaluate whether the common risk factors and risk scores (FRAX, QFracture, and Garvan) can predict hip fracture in the oldest old (defined as people aged 80 and older) and to develop an oldest-old-specific 10-year hip fracture prediction risk algorithm.

METHODS

Subjects aged 80 years and older without history of hip fracture were studied. For the derivation cohort (N = 251, mean age = 83), participants were enrolled with a median follow-up time of 8.9 years. For the validation cohort (N = 599, mean age = 85), outpatients were enrolled with a median follow-up of 2.6 years. A five-factor risk score (the Hong Kong Osteoporosis Study [HKOS] score) for incident hip fracture was derived and validated, and its predictive accuracy was evaluated and compared with other risk scores.

RESULTS

In the derivation cohort, the C-statistics were .65, .61, .65, .76, and .78 for FRAX with bone mineral density (BMD), FRAX without BMD, QFracture, Garvan, and the HKOS score, respectively. The category-less net reclassification index and integrated discrimination improvement of the HKOS score showed a better reclassification of hip fracture than FRAX and QFracture (all p < .001) but not Garvan, while Garvan, but not HKOS score, showed a significant over-estimation in fracture risk (Hosmer-Lemeshow test p < .001). In the validation cohort, the HKOS score had a C-statistic of .81 and a considerable agreement between expected and observed fracture risk in calibration.

CONCLUSION

The HKOS score can predict 10-year incident hip fracture among the oldest old in Hong Kong. The score may be useful in identifying the oldest old patients at risk of hip fracture in both community-dwelling and hospital settings.

Are Nursing Home Residents With Dementia Appropriately Treated for Fracture Prevention?

Clinicians struggle with whether to prescribe osteoporosis medications for fracture prevention for older nursing home (NH) residents with dementia, given the lack of evidence in this population. To better understand real-world clinical practice, we conducted a retrospective cohort study examining patterns of fracture prevention medication use for older NH residents with dementia and high fracture risk. Data sources included 2015-16 Medicare claims, Part D prescriptions, and Minimum Data Set (MDS) assessments. Among NH residents aged 65+ with dementia and prior fracture or high fracture risk based on the MDS FRAiL (Fracture Risk Assessment in Long-term care), we assessed medications for fracture prevention using prescription data from 1 year prior through 90 days after the first MDS assessment. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate factors associated with receiving treatment. Most of the sample (n = 72,639) was >80 years (78%), female (82%), and white (88%); 63% had moderate/severe dementia and 60% had an osteoporosis diagnosis. Only 11.6% received fracture prevention medications. In adjusted analyses, treated residents were more likely to be female, Hispanic or other non-black minority, <90 years old, and newly admitted to the NH. Other associated factors included osteoporosis diagnosis, walker or wheelchair use, bone disorders (eg, Paget disease), >5 medications, steroid or proton pump inhibitor use, and regions outside of the Northeast. Resident characteristics suggestive of comorbidity burden and worsening dementia were associated with reduced likelihood of treatment. Low use of fracture prevention medications for NH residents with dementia may reflect an attempt by prescribers reconcile medication use with changing goals of care, or inappropriate underuse in patients who still have high fracture risk. Additional research is needed to help clinicians better evaluate when to use these medications in this heterogeneous and vulnerable population.

Secular Trends in the Incidence of Hip Fracture Among Nursing Home Residents

A recent study suggested a decline in the incidence of hip fracture among US women between 2002 and 2012, followed by a leveling in the incidence rate from 2013 to 2015. Newly admitted nursing home residents are particularly vulnerable to hip fracture, and it is unclear whether that trend is observed in this high risk group. The purpose of our study was to describe trends in hip fracture rates and postfracture mortality among 2.6 million newly admitted US nursing home residents from 2007 to 2015, and to examine whether these trends could be explained by differences in resident characteristics. Medicare claims data were linked with the Minimum Data Set (MDS), a clinical assessment performed quarterly on all nursing home residents. In each year (2007-2015), we identified newly admitted long-stay (ie, 100 days in the same facility) nursing home residents. Hip fracture was defined using Medicare Part A diagnostic codes. Follow-up time was calculated from the index date until the first event of hospitalized hip fracture, Medicare disenrollment, death, or until 1 year. Poisson regression was used to adjust rates of hip fracture for age and sex. The number of newly admitted nursing home residents ranged from 324,508 in 2007 to 257,350 in 2015. Although mean age remained similar (83 years), residents were more functionally dependent over time. There was a small absolute decrease in the incidence rate of hip fracture between 2007 (3.32/100 person-years) and 2013 (2.82/100 person-years), with an increase again in 2015 (3.03/100 person-years). Adjusting for patient characteristics somewhat attenuated these trends. One-year mortality was high following fracture in all years (42.6% in 2007, 42.1% in 2014). In summary, we observed a recent slight rise in the incidence rates of hip fracture among nursing home residents that was at least partially explained by differences in resident characteristics over time. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

The risk of hip and non-vertebral fractures in type 1 and type 2 diabetes: A systematic review and meta-analysis update

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is associated with increased fracture risk but we do not know what affects this risk. We investigated the risk of hip and non-vertebral fractures in diabetes and whether this risk was affected by age, gender, body mass index, diabetes type and duration, insulin use and diabetic complications.

METHODS

We selected a previously published review to be updated. MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane databases were searched up to March 2020. We included observational studies with age and gender-adjusted risk of fractures in adults with diabetes compared to adults without diabetes. We extracted data from published reports that we summarised using random effects model.

FINDINGS

From the 3140 records identified, 49 were included, 42 in the hip fracture analysis, reporting data from 17,571,738 participants with 319,652 fractures and 17 in the non-vertebral fracture review, reporting data from 2,978,487 participants with 181,228 fractures. We found an increase in the risk of fracture in diabetes both for hip (RR 4.93, 3.06-7.95, in type 1 diabetes and RR1.33, 1.19-1.49, in type 2 diabetes) and for non-vertebral fractures (RR 1.92, 0.92-3.99, in type 1 and RR 1.19, 1,11-1.28 in type 2). At the hip, the risk was higher in the younger population in both type 1 and type 2 diabetes. In those with type 2 diabetes, longer diabetes duration and insulin use was associated with an increased risk. We did not investigate the effect of bone density, falls, anti-diabetic drugs and hypoglycemia.

CONCLUSION

Diabetes is associated with an increase in both hip and non-vertebral fracture risk.

Association Between Bisphosphonates and Hospitalized Clostridioides difficile Infection Among Frail Older Adults

OBJECTIVES

Clostridioides difficile infection is a major source of morbidity and mortality among frail older adults, especially those in nursing homes (NHs). Safety reports have signaled that bisphosphonate use may be a contributing cause. We therefore evaluated the risk of C difficile hospitalization associated with oral bisphosphonate use in the NH.

DESIGN

Observational, retrospective new-user cohort study.

SETTING

The cohort included US NH residents aged ≥65 years who became a long-stay resident (>100 days in the NH) between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2009.

METHODS

We conducted a study of NH residents using linked Medicare claims and Minimum Data Set records. Residents were new users of an oral bisphosphonate 1:1 matched to new calcitonin users ("active" comparator) on propensity scores controlling for more than 100 covariates. The outcome was risk of hospitalization for C difficile infection in a Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for previous antibiotic and proton pump inhibitor use.

RESULTS

Our final analytical cohort included 17,753 bisphosphonate and 5348 calcitonin users. In the matched cohort, 84/5209 (1.6%) vs 71/5209 (1.4%) C difficile-related hospitalizations occurred in bisphosphonate and calcitonin users, respectively. We observed no significant difference in the risk of hospitalization among bisphosphonate users (hazard ratio: 1.11, 95% confidence interval: 0.80-1.51). Antibiotic and proton pump inhibitor exposure before and after osteoporosis treatment was also similar between bisphosphonate and calcitonin users.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

C difficile infection should not be a consideration when prescribing bisphosphonates to frail older adults given the lack of a significant association.

Potentially burdensome end-of-life transitions among nursing home residents with poor-prognosis cancer

BACKGROUND

This study examined factors associated with potentially burdensome end-of-life (EOL) transitions between care settings among older adults with advanced cancer in nursing homes (NHs).

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of deceased older NH residents with poor-prognosis solid tumors was conducted with Medicare claims and the Minimum Data Set. A potentially burdensome transition was defined as 2 or more hospitalizations or an intensive care unit admission in the last 90 days of life.

RESULTS

Among 34,670 subjects, many had moderate to severe cognitive impairment (53.8%), full dependence in activities of daily living (ADLs; 66.5%), and comorbidities such as congestive heart failure (CHF; 29.3%) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (34.1%). Only 56.3% of the patients used hospice at any time in the 90 days before death; 36.0% of the patients experienced a potentially burdensome EOL transition, and this was higher among patients who did not receive hospice (45.4% vs 28.7%; P < .01). In multivariable analyses, full dependence in ADLs (odds ratio [OR], 1.70; P < .01), CHF (OR, 1.48; P < .01), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR, 1.28; P < .01) were associated with a higher risk of burdensome EOL transitions. Those with do-not-resuscitate directives (OR, 0.60; P < .01) and impaired cognition (OR, 0.89; P < .01) had lower odds of burdensome EOL transitions.

CONCLUSIONS

NH residents with advanced cancer have substantial comorbidities and functional impairment, yet more than a third experience potentially burdensome EOL transitions. These findings help to identify a population at risk for poor EOL outcomes in order to target interventions, and they point to the importance of advanced care planning in this population.

Population-Based Osteoporosis Primary Prevention and Screening for Quality of Care in Osteoporosis, Current Osteoporosis Reports

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Despite the high prevalence and impact of osteoporosis, screening and treatment rates remain low, with few women age 65 years and older utilizing osteoporosis screening for primary prevention.

RECENT FINDINGS

This review examines opportunities and challenges related to primary prevention and screening for osteoporosis at the population level. Strategies on how to identify individuals at high fracture risk and target them for treatment have lagged far behind other developments in the osteoporosis field. Most osteoporosis quality improvement strategies have focused on patients with recent or prior fracture (secondary prevention), with limited attention to individuals without prior fracture. For populations without prior fracture, the only quality improvement strategy for which meta-analysis demonstrated significant improvement in osteoporosis care was patient self-scheduling of DXA plus education Much more work is needed to develop and validate effective primary screening and prevention strategies and translate these into high-quality guidelines.

Validation of the FRAiL model to predict non-vertebral and hip fractures in nursing home residents

OBJECTIVE

Tools were unavailable to assess fracture risk in nursing homes (NH); therefore, we developed the Fracture Risk Assessment in Long term care (FRAiL) model. The objective of this validation study was to assess the performance of the FRAiL model to predict 2-year risk of non-vertebral and hip fractures in a separate large cohort of NH residents.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included most long-stay NH residents in the United States (N = 896,840). Hip and non-vertebral fractures were identified using Medicare claims. The Minimum Data Set (MDS) was used to identify characteristics from the original FRAiL model. Multivariable competing risk regression was used to model risk of fracture.

RESULTS

Mean age was 83.8 years (±8.2 years) and 70.7% were women. Over a mean follow-up of 1.52 years (SD 0.65), 41,531 residents (4.6%) were hospitalized with non-vertebral fracture (n = 30,356 hip fractures). In the fully adjusted model, 14/15 model characteristics remained significant predictors of non-vertebral fracture. Female sex (HR = 1.55, 95% CI 1.52, 1.59), wandering (HR = 1.30, 95% CI 1.26, 1.34), and falls (HR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.26, 1.31) were strongly associated with non-vertebral fracture rate. Total dependence in ADLs (versus independence) was associated with a decrease in non-vertebral fracture rate (HR = 0.57, 95% CI 0.52, 0.64). Discrimination was moderate in men (C-index = 0.68 for hip, 0.66 for non-vertebral) and women (C-index = 0.68 for hip, 0.65 for non-vertebral), and calibration was excellent.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model comprised entirely from routinely collected data was able to identify NH residents at greatest risk for non-vertebral fracture.

Predictors of Hip Fracture Despite Treatment with Bisphosphonates among Frail Older Adults

OBJECTIVES

Bisphosphonates are effective at preventing hip fractures among older adults, yet many patients still fracture while on treatment and may benefit from additional preventive interventions. Little data are specifically available to target such efforts among bisphosphonate users. We aimed to identify predictors of hip fracture unique to frail older adults initiating pharmacologic treatment for osteoporosis.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort using 2008-2013 linked national Minimum Data Set assessments, Medicare claims, and nursing home (NH) facility data.

SETTING

NHs in the United States.

PARTICIPANTS

Long-stay NH residents 65 years or older who initiated treatment with a bisphosphonate (N = 17 753). Estimates for bisphosphonate initiators were contrasted with those for calcitonin initiators (control group; N = 5348).

MEASUREMENTS

Hospitalized hip fracture outcomes were measured using Part A claims. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for 36 a priori selected potential predictors.

RESULTS

The mean (SD) age of the study population was 84 (8) years, 85% were women, and 51% had moderate to severe cognitive impairment. Predictors associated with a higher risk of hip fracture despite bisphosphonate use included age 75 years or older to 85 years (vs ≥65 to <75 y; HR = 1.25; 95% CI = 1.02-1.55), female sex (HR = 1.33; 95% CI = 1.06-1.67), white race (vs black race (HR = 1.87; 95% CI = 1.36-2.58), and body mass index = 18.5-24.9 (vs ≥30; HR = 1.93; 95% CI = 1.53-2.42). Independent ability to transfer (vs total dependence; HR = 3.11; 95% CI = 1.83-5.30) and occasional urinary incontinence (vs frequent; HR = 1.45; 95% CI = 1.18-1.78) were also important predictors. Dementia, diabetes, psychoactive drug use, and other characteristics were not associated with post-prescribing hip fracture. Predictors did not differ between bisphosphonate and calcitonin users.

CONCLUSION

Predictors of hip fracture among frail older adults did not differ between those who were new users of bisphosphonates vs calcitonin. Given the absence of risk factors unique to bisphosphonate users, targeting of fracture prevention efforts should extend beyond pharmacologic therapy to include existing nonpharmacologic therapies, particularly fall prevention strategies. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:256-260, 2020.

Incidence of hip fracture in Native American residents of U.S. nursing homes

OBJECTIVES

To compare the standardized incidence rates (IRs) of hip fracture for Native Americans versus other racial groups in U.S. nursing homes (NHs).

METHODS

We studied Medicare fee-for-service NH residents aged ≥65 years who became long-stay (index date) between 1/1/2008 and 12/31/2009 (n = 1,136,544). Residents were followed from the index date until occurrence of hip fracture, death, Medicare disenrollment, or study end (12/31/2013). We calculated hip fracture IRs by race and used inverse probability weighting to standardize the rates for baseline demographic and clinical characteristics collected from the Minimum Data Set and Medicare claims data. We compared characteristics of NHs used by residents of different races using Online Survey, Certification and Reporting (OSCAR) data.

RESULTS

Among long-stay U.S. NH residents, the standardized IR of hip fracture per 100 person-years was highest in Native Americans [2.16; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.91-2.44] and white residents (2.05; 2.03-2.06), and lowest in black residents (0.82; 0.79-0.85). NHs caring for Native American residents were more likely to be rurally located as compared to other racial group.

CONCLUSIONS

In U.S. NHs, Native Americans and whites have the highest standardized IR of hip fracture and should receive particular attention in fracture prevention efforts.

Risk factors for hip fracture in New Zealand older adults seeking home care services: a national population cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Hip fractures are a common injury in older people. Many studies worldwide have identified various risk factors for hip fracture. However, risk factors for hip fracture have not been studied extensively in New Zealand. The interRAI home care assessment consists of 236 health questions and some of these may be related to hip fracture risk.

METHODS

The cohort consisted of 45,046 home care clients aged 65 years and older, in New Zealand. Assessments ranged from September 2012 to October 2015. Hip fracture diagnosis was identified by linking ICD (International Classification of Diseases) codes from hospital admissions data (September 2012 to December 2015) to the interRAI home care data. Unadjusted and adjusted competing risk regressions, using the Fine and Gray method were used to identify risk factors for hip fracture. Mortality was the competing event.

RESULTS

The cohort consisted of 61% female with a mean age of 82.7 years. A total of 3010 (6.7%) of the cohort sustained a hip fracture after assessment. After adjusting for sociodemographic and potentially confounding variables falls (SHR (Subhazard Ratio) = 1.17, 95% CI (Confidence interval): 1.05-1.31), previous hip fracture (SHR = 4.16, 95% CI: 2.93-5.89), female gender (SHR = 1.38, 95% CI: 1.22-1.55), underweight (SHR = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.39-2.02), tobacco use (SHR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.25-1.96), Parkinson's disease (SHR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.14-1.84), and Wandering (SHR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.07-1.72) were identified as risk factors for hip fracture. Shortness of breath (SHR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.71-0.90), was identified as being protective against hip fracture risk. Males and females had different significant risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk factors for hip fracture similar to international work on risk factors for hip fracture, can be identified using the New Zealand version of the interRAI home care assessment.

Incidence of Lower-Extremity Fractures in US Nursing Homes

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Limited studies suggest lower-extremity (LE) fractures are morbid events for nursing home (NH) residents. Our objective was to conduct a nationwide study comparing the incidence and resident characteristics associated with hip (proximal femur) vs nonhip LE (femoral shaft and tibia-fibula) fractures in the NH.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

US NHs.

PARTICIPANTS

We included all long-stay residents, aged 65 years or older, enrolled in Medicare from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2009 (N = 1 257 279). Residents were followed from long-stay qualification until the first event of LE fracture, death, or end of follow-up (2 years).

MEASUREMENTS

Fractures were classified using Medicare diagnostic and procedural codes. Function, cognition, and medical status were obtained from the Minimum Data Set prior to long-stay qualification. Incidence rates (IRs) were calculated as the total number of fractures divided by person-years.

RESULTS

During 42 800 person-years of follow-up, 52 177 residents had an LE fracture (43 695 hip, 6001 femoral shaft, 2481 tibia-fibula). The unadjusted IRs of LE fractures were 1.32/1000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.27-1.38) for tibia-fibula, 3.20/1000 person-years (95% CI = 3.12-3.29) for femoral shaft, and 23.32/1000 person-years (95% CI = 23.11-23.54) for hip. As compared with hip fracture residents, non-hip LE fracture residents were more likely to be immobile (58.1% vs 18.4%), to be dependent in all activities of daily living (31.6% vs 10.8%), to be transferred mechanically (20.5% vs 4.4%), to be overweight (mean body mass index = 26.6 vs 24.0 kg/m² ), and to have diabetes (34.8% vs 25.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings that non-hip LE fractures often occur in severely functionally impaired residents suggest these fractures may have a different mechanism of injury than hip fractures. The resident differences in our study highlight the need for distinct prevention strategies for hip and non-hip LE fractures.

Effect of Bisphosphonates on Fracture Outcomes Among Frail Older Adults

BACKGROUND

Bisphosphonates are seldom used in frail, older adults, in part due to lack of direct evidence of efficacy in this population and increasing concerns about safety.

OBJECTIVE

We estimated the effects of bisphosphonates on hip fractures, nonvertebral fractures, and severe esophagitis among frail, older adults.

DESIGN

Population-based retrospective cohort using 2008 to 2013 linked national Minimum Data Set assessments; Online Survey Certification and Reporting System records; and Medicare claims.

SETTING

US nursing homes (NHs).

PARTICIPANTS

Long-stay NH residents 65 years and older without recent osteoporosis medication use (N = 24,571). Bisphosphonate initiators were 1:1 propensity score matched to calcitonin initiators (active comparator).

MEASUREMENTS

Hospitalized hip fracture, nonvertebral fracture, and esophagitis outcomes were measured using part A claims. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated, controlling for over 100 baseline characteristics.

RESULTS

The matched cohort included 5209 new bisphosphonate users and an equal number of calcitonin users (mean age [SD] = 85 [8] years; 87% female; 52% moderate-severe cognitive impairment). Over a mean follow-up of 2.5 (SD = 1.7) years, 568 residents (5.5%) had a hip fracture, 874 (8.4%) had a nonvertebral fracture, and 199 (1.9%) had a hospitalized esophagitis event. Users of bisphosphonates were less likely than calcitonin users to experience hip fracture (HR = 0.83; 95% CI = 0.71-0.98), with an average gain in time without fracture of 28.4 days (95% CI = 6.0-50.8 days). Bisphosphonate and calcitonin users had similar rates of nonvertebral fracture (HR = 0.91; 95% CI = 0.80-1.03) and esophagitis events (HR = 1.11; 95% CI = 0.84-1.47). The effects of bisphosphonates on fractures and esophagitis were generally homogeneous across subgroups, including those defined by age, sex, history of prior fracture, and baseline fracture risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Use of bisphosphonates is associated with a meaningful reduction in hip fracture among frail, older adults, but little difference in nonvertebral fracture or severe esophagitis. J Am Geriatr Soc 67:768-776, 2019.

Commonly Initiated Opioids and Risk of Fracture Hospitalizations in United States Nursing Homes

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to estimate the comparative safety of initiating commonly used opioids among older, long-stay United States nursing home residents with fracture hospitalizations.

METHODS

We conducted a new-user retrospective cohort study of nursing home residents initiating short-acting oxycodone, hydrocodone, or tramadol by merging the 2011-2013 Minimum Data Set 3.0 to Medicare hospitalization and pharmacy claims. Residents (≥ 65 years, no cancer or hospice use) contributed treatment episodes (> 120 days with no prior opioid claims) and were followed for 180 days until incident fracture hospitalization (hip, femur, humerus, pelvis, radius/ulna), death (competing risk), treatment changes (e.g., discontinuation), or administrative censoring. Competing risks models with inverse probability of treatment weighting were used to estimate subdistribution hazard ratios (HR_SD) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

Overall, 110,862 residents contributed 134,432 treatment episodes: 14,373 oxycodone; 69,182 hydrocodone; and 50,877 tramadol initiators. The incidences of fracture hospitalizations per 100 person-years were 9.4 (95% CI 7.5-11.7) for oxycodone, 7.9 (95% CI 7.1-8.8) for hydrocodone, and 5.0 (95% CI 4.3-5.7) for tramadol initiators. In weighted models, oxycodone initiators had a similar rate of fractures to hydrocodone initiators (HR_SD 1.08, 95% CI 0.79-1.48). Tramadol initiators had lower fracture rates than hydrocodone initiators (HR_SD 0.67, 95% CI 0.56-0.80).

CONCLUSIONS

The lower rate of fractures that we documented among tramadol initiators compared with hydrocodone initiators is consistent, albeit attenuated compared with prior studies among community-dwelling older adults. However, overall fracture rates were lower than in community settings, potentially due to the limited risk of falling in this population with limited mobility.

A New Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FREM) Based on Public Health Registries

Some conditions are already known to be associated with an increased risk of osteoporotic fractures. Other conditions may also be significant indicators of increased risk. The aim of the current study was to identify conditions for inclusion in a fracture prediction model (fracture risk evaluation model [FREM]) for automated case finding of high-risk individuals of hip or major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs). We included the total population of Denmark aged 45+ years (N = 2,495,339). All hospital diagnoses from 1998 to 2012 were used as possible conditions; the primary outcome was MOFs during 2013. Our cohort was split randomly 50/50 into a development and a validation dataset for deriving and validating the predictive model. We applied backward selection on ICD-10 codes (International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision) by logistic regression to develop an age-adjusted and sex-stratified model. The FREM for MOFs included 38 and 43 risk factors for women and men, respectively. Testing FREM for MOFs in the validation cohort showed good accuracy; it produced receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.750 (95% CI, 0.741 to 0.795) and 0.752 (95% CI, 0.743 to 0.761) for women and men, respectively. The FREM for hip fractures included 32 risk factors for both genders and showed an even higher accuracy in the validation cohort as AUCs of 0.874 (95% CI, 0.869 to 0.879) and 0.851 (95% CI, 0.841 to 0.861) for women and men were found, respectively. We have developed and tested a prediction model (FREM) for identifying men and women at high risk of MOFs or hip fractures by using solely existing administrative data. The FREM could be employed either at the point of care integrated into electronic patient record systems to alert physicians or deployed centrally in a national case-finding strategy where patients at high fracture risk could be invited to a focused DXA program. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Epidemiology of hip fracture in nursing home residents with multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Hip fracture risk is high in young people with multiple sclerosis (MS), but has not been examined in an institutionalized aging population with MS.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to compare the hip fracture risk in nursing home (NH) residents with and without MS; and (2) examine risk factors for hip fracture in those with MS.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using national NH clinical assessment and Medicare claims data. Participants included age-, sex- and race-matched NH residents with/without MS (2007-2008). Multivariable competing risk regression was used to compare 2-year hip fracture risk, and to examine risk factors.

RESULTS

A total of 5692 NH residents with MS were matched to 28,460 without MS. Approximately 80% of residents with MS vs. 50% of those without MS required extensive assistance in walking at NH admission. The adjusted incidence rate of hip fracture was 7.1 and 18.6 per 1000 person-years in those with or without MS, respectively. Wandering and anxiolytic exposure were the main hip fracture risk factors in transfer independent residents with MS; while pneumonia and antidepressant use were the main factors in dependent residents with MS.

CONCLUSIONS

In contrast to prior comparisons from non-NH populations, the incidence of hip fracture was lower in NH residents with MS as compared with matched controls. Residents with MS were much more functionally dependent, which likely explains these findings. Fracture prevention strategies should focus on fall prevention in independent residents; and possibly improvement of health status and facility quality of care in dependent residents.

Facility and State Variation in Hip Fracture in U.S. Nursing Home Residents

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the variation in hip fracture incidence across U.S. nursing home (NH) facilities and states and examine how hip fracture incidence varies according to facility- and state-level characteristics.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort using linked national Minimum Data Set assessments; Online Survey, Certification and Reporting records; and Medicare claims.

SETTING

U.S. NHs with 100 or more beds.

PARTICIPANTS

Long-stay NH residents between May 1, 2007, and April 30, 2008, from 1,481 facilities and 46 U.S. states (N = 201,892).

MEASUREMENTS

Incident hip fractures were ascertained using Medicare Part A diagnostic codes. Each resident was followed for up to 2 years.

RESULTS

The mean adjusted incidence rate of hip fractures for all facilities was 3.13 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.01-3.26) per 100 person-years (range 1.20, 95% CI = 1.15-1.26 to 6.40, 95% CI = 6.07-6.77). Facilities with the highest rates of hip fracture had greater percentages of residents taking psychoactive medications (top tertile 27.2%, bottom tertile 24.8%), and fewer nursing (top tertile 3.43, bottom tertile 3.53) and direct care (top tertile 3.22, bottom tertile 3.29) hours per day per resident. The combination of state and facility characteristics explained 6.7% of the variation in hip fracture, and resident characteristics explained 7.6%.

CONCLUSION

Much of the variation in hip fracture incidence remained unexplained, although these findings indicate that potentially modifiable state and facility characteristics such as psychoactive drug prescribing and minimum staffing requirements could be addressed to help reduce the rate of hip fracture in U.S. NHs.

Pain Treatments After Hip Fracture Among Older Nursing Home Residents

OBJECTIVES

To examine the association between use of opioids versus other analgesics with death and functioning after hip fracture in older nursing home (NH) residents.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort using national Medicare fee-for-service claims linked to the Minimum Data Set.

SETTING

US NHs.

PARTICIPANTS

NH residents aged ≥65 years who became a long-stay resident (>100 days in the NH) between January 2008 and December 2009, had a hospitalized hip fracture, and returned to the NH.

EXPOSURE

New use of opioid versus nonopioid analgesics (acetaminophen or nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) within 14 days post hip fracture.

MEASUREMENTS

Follow-up began on the index date and continued until the first occurrence of death, significant functional decline (3-point increase on MDS Activities of Daily Living scale), or 120 days of follow-up. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for outcomes were estimated using inverse probability of treatment-weighted multinomial logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Among the 2755 NH residents with a hip fracture included in our study, 1155 (41.9%) were opioid users, and 1600 (58.1%) were nonopioid analgesic users. The mean age was 86.3 years, 73.8% were female, and 86.0% were white. Opioid use was associated with a significantly lower likelihood of death (OR = 0.47, 95% CI 0.39-0.56) and a nonsignificant decrease in functional decline (OR = 0.77, 95% CI 0.58-1.03).

CONCLUSION

A rigorous study that addresses the limitations of this study is critical to validate our preliminary findings and provide evidence about the effect of using opioid versus nonopioid analgesics to optimize acute pain in NH residents with a hip fracture.