Anthropometric indicators may explain the high incidence of follicular lymphoma in Europeans: Results from a bidirectional two-sample two-step Mendelian randomisation

BACKGROUND

Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma incidence rates vary between European and Asian populations. The reasons remain unclear. This two-sample two-step Mendelian randomisation (MR) study aimed to investigate the causal relationship between anthropometric indicators (AIs) and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and follicular lymphoma (FL) and the possible mediating role of basal metabolic rate (BMR) in Europe.

METHODS

We used the following AIs as exposures: body mass index (BMI), whole-body fat mass (WBFM), whole-body fat-free mass (WBFFM), waist circumference(WC), hip circumference(HC), standing height (SH), and weight(Wt). DLBCL and FL represented the outcomes, and BMR was a mediator. A two-sample MR analysis was performed to examine the association between AIs and DLBCL and FL onset. We performed reverse-MR analysis to determine whether DLBCL and FL interfered with the AIs. A two-step MR analysis was performed to determine whether BMR mediated the causality.

FINDINGS

WBFFM and SH had causal relationships with FL. A causal association between AIs and DLBCL was not observed. Reverse-MR analysis indicated the causal relationships were not bidirectional. Two-step MR suggested BMR may mediate the causal effect of WBFFM and SH on FL.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed a causal relationship between WBFFM and SH and the onset of FL in Europeans, Which may explain the high incidence of follicular lymphoma in Europeans.

The burden of acute lymphoid leukemia among adolescents and young adults in the Western Pacific Region: evidence from Global Burden Disease 2019

PURPOSE

Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is a type of blood cancer that affects white blood cells. Here, we use data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, to estimate the burden and incidence rate changes in adolescents and young adults (AYA) ALL in the Western Pacific Region and to reveal potential risk factors of incidence- and mortality rates.

METHODS

The GBD 2019 study data was stratified by sex, age, country, and territory. We calculated the Estimated annual percentage changes (estimated APC) in mortality and incidence rates for each of the 25 countries and territories of the western Pacific region from 1990 to 2019.

RESULTS

This study found global AYA ALL incidence rates had increased while the mortality rates had decreased between 1990 and 2019. Moreover, healthcare access and quality (HAQ), and government per capita health spending were identified as country-level risk factors of AYA ALL incidence rates, while HAQ, male education, and sex were identified as mortality rate predictors in 25 Western Pacific Region countries.

CONCLUSION

To address and reduce the burden of incidence and mortality among AYA, various regions around the world, particularly developing countries, could revise their AYA prevention and treatment strategies.

Impact of screening and doxycycline prevention on the syphilis epidemic among men who have sex with men in British Columbia: a mathematical modelling study

Background

Men who have sex with men (MSM) in British Columbia (BC) are disproportionately affected by infectious syphilis and HIV. In this study, we developed a co-interaction model and evaluated the impact and effectiveness of possible interventions among different MSM subgroups on the syphilis epidemic.

Methods

We designed a deterministic compartmental model, which stratified MSM by HIV status and HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (HIV-PrEP) usage into (1) HIV-negative/unaware MSM (HIV-PrEP not recommended, not on HIV-PrEP), (2) HIV-negative/unaware MSM with HIV-PrEP recommended (not on HIV-PrEP), (3) HIV-negative/unaware MSM actively on HIV-PrEP, and (4) MSM diagnosed with HIV. We estimated the effect of scaling up syphilis testing frequency from Status Quo to six-, four-, and three-months, increasing the percentage of MSM using doxycycline prevention (Doxy-P) to 25%, 50%, and 100% of the target level, and a combination of both among subgroups (2)-(4). We also assessed the impact of these interventions on the syphilis incidence rates from 2020 to 2034 in comparison to the Status Quo scenario where no intervention was introduced.

Findings

Under the Status Quo scenario, with the expansion of the HIV-PrEP program to improve syphilis testing, the syphilis incidence rate was estimated to peak at 16.1 [Credible Interval (CI):14.2-17.9] per 1,000 person-years (PYs) in 2023 and decrease to 6.7 (CI:3.8-10.9) per 1,000 PYs by 2034. The syphilis incidence rate in 2034 was estimated at 0.7 (0.3-1.3) per 1,000 PYs if MSM diagnosed with HIV could be tested every four months, and at 1.5 (0.7-3.0) per 1,000 PYs if HIV-negative/unaware MSM actively on HIV-PrEP could be tested every three months. By achieving 100% of the target coverage of Doxy-P, the syphilis incidence rate was estimated at 1.4 (0.5-3.4) if focusing on MSM diagnosed with HIV, and 2.6 (1.2-5.1) per 1,000 PYs if focusing on HIV-negative/unaware MSM actively on HIV-PrEP. Under the combined interventions, the syphilis incidence rate could be as low as 0.0 (0.0-0.1) and 0.8 (0.3-1.8) per 1,000 PYs, respectively.

Interpretation

The HIV-PrEP program in BC plays a crucial role in increasing syphilis testing frequency among high-risk MSM and reducing syphilis transmission among this group. In addition, introducing Doxy-P can be an effective complementary strategy to minimize syphilis incidence, especially among MSM diagnosed with HIV.

Funding

This work was funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Is a tiered restrictions system an effective intervention for COVID-19 control? Results from Portugal, November-December 2020

BACKGROUND

In November 2020, similar to other European countries, Portugal implemented a tiered restrictions system to control the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to compare the COVID-19 growth rate across tiers to assess the effect of a tiered restrictions system in Portugal, using models with different times between tiers assessment. Our hypothesis was that being in a higher tier brings a faster deceleration in the growth rate than being in a lower tier.

METHODS

The national database of notified COVID-19 cases and publicly available data were used to analyse the effect of the tiered restrictions system on the COVID-19 incidence growth rate. The tiers were based on the European Centre for Disease Control risk classification: moderate, high, very and extremely high. We used a generalised mixed-effects regression model to estimate the growth rate ratio (GRR) for each tier, comparing the growth rates of higher tiers using moderate tier as reference. Three models were fitted using different times between tiers assessment, separated by 14 days.

RESULTS

We included 156 034 cases. Very high tier was the most frequent combination in all the three moments assessed (21.2%), and almost 50% of the municipalities never changed tier during the study period. Immediately after the tiers implementation, a reduction was identified in the municipalities in high tier (GRR high tier: 0.90 [95%CI: 0.79; 1.02]) and very high tier (GRR very high tier: 0.68 [95%CI: 0.61; 0.77]), however with some imprecision in the 95% confidence interval for the high tier. A reduction in very high tier growth rate was identified two weeks (GRR: 0.79 [95%CI: 0.71; 0.88]) and four weeks (GRR: 0.77 [95%CI: 0.74; 0.82]) after the implementation, compared to moderate tier. In high tier, a reduction was also identified in both times, although smaller.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed a reduction in the growth rate in very high tier after the tiered restriction system was implemented, but we also observed a lag between tiered restriction system implementation and the onset of consequent effects. This could suggest the importance of early implementation of stricter measures for pandemic control. Thus, studies analysing a broader period of time are needed.

Changing trends in Japanese spotted fever epidemiology in Shimane, Japan: A two-decade retrospective study with emphasis on the COVID-19 pandemic era

INTRODUCTION

The objective of this study is to evaluate the epidemiological characteristics of Japanese Spotted Fever (JSF) cases reported through the National Epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Disease (NESID) system in Shimane Prefecture, Japan, from 2000 to 2022, encompassing the periods before and during the COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted on JSF cases reported to the NESID system in Shimane Prefecture between 2000 and 2022. Population data were obtained from the Statistical Information of Shimane. Poisson regression analysis was employed to examine the relationship between the annual prevalence rate of JSF and the COVID-19 pandemic.

RESULTS

A total of 301 JSF cases were analyzed during the study period. Even the pre-COVID-19 pandemic period, a gradual and significant increase in the prevalence rate was observed (prevalence rate = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.05; p = 0.01), and a rapid increase was noted since 2020 (prevalence rate = 1.57, 95% CI: 1.39-1.78; p < 0.01). The slope during the pre-COVID-19 pandemic period was estimated to have significantly increased (p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that while the prevalence rate of JSF had exhibited a slight increase in the years preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, it demonstrated a more significant increase following the pandemic in Shimane Prefecture. JSF has increased since 2020 and may be linked to COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial impact on global health, underscoring the importance of investigating the prevalence of specific infectious diseases and other health-related indicators to accurately assess the pandemic's impact.

Incidence trends of adult glioma in Norway and its association with occupation and education: A registry-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Gliomas constitute 75 % of all malignant primary adult brain tumors. Being the most frequent histologic subtype, glioblastomas (GBMs) cause substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide and the Nordic countries have some of the highest incidence rates in the world. Therefore, we investigated the incidence of gliomas in Norway including time trends and associations with education and occupation.

METHODS

We retrieved individual-level data from databases at Statistics Norway containing information on education and occupation and linked them to data on adult glioma patients diagnosed during 2004-21 from the Cancer Registry of Norway. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) (World Standard Population) were calculated and analyzed with regards to sex and morphology. Poisson regression was used to test for time-trends, and to analyze the associations between education, occupation and glioma incidence, adjusted for age, sex, and calendar year. Estimates were reported as incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

The overall ASIR of gliomas (per 100,000 person-years) was 7.1 (95 % CI 6.9-7.3), with no specific time trend during the study period. The incidence increased with age. Compared to the other subtypes, GBMs were diagnosed at older ages. The risks of developing glioma overall and GBM were associated with occupation but not with educational level. The relative risk of glioma and GBM were respectively 1.17 (95 % CI 1.05-1.31) and 1.17 (95 % CI 1.02-1.35) among high-skilled white-collar workers compared to blue-collar workers.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall and sex-specific ASIRs of gliomas and GBMs did not show any noticeable time trends. The higher risk of developing glioma overall and GBM in high-skilled white-collar workers compared to blue-collar workers calls for further investigations.

Incidence rates of retinal vascular occlusive diseases from 2011 to 2020 in South Korea: a nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

Retinal vascular occlusions, including retinal vein occlusion and retinal artery occlusion, are common causes of visual impairment. In order to evaluate the national medical burden and help improve ophthalmic health care policy planning, we investigated the incidence of retinal vascular occlusive diseases from 2011 to 2020 in Korea.

METHODS

This study is a nationwide population-based retrospective study using data from the Korea national health claim database of the Health Insurance Review and Assessment (HIRA) service. We identified retinal vascular occlusive diseases registered from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2020, according to the retinal vascular occlusion code (H34) and its sub-codes from international classification of disease, tenth revision diagnosis code. We used data from the entire Korean population based on the 2015 census of the population in Korea to calculate standardized incidence rates.

RESULTS

We identified 348,775 individuals (male, 161,673 [46.4%]; female, 187,102 [53.6%]) with incident retinal vascular occlusion (H34), 10,451 individuals (males, 6,329 [60.6%]; females, 4,122 [39.4%]) with incident central retinal artery occlusion (H34.1), and 252,810 individuals (males, 114,717 [45.4%]; females, 138,093 [54.6%]) with incident retinal vein occlusion (H34.8) during the 10-year study period. The weighted mean incidence rate of retinal vascular occlusion was 70.41 (95% CI, 70.18-70.65) cases/100,000 person-years. The weighted mean incidence rate of central retinal artery occlusion was 2.10 (95% CI, 2.06-2.14) cases/100,000 person-years. The weighted mean incidence rate of retinal vein occlusion was 50.99 (95% CI, 50.79-51.19) cases/100,000 person-years.

CONCLUSION

The total retinal vascular occlusion and retinal vein occlusion showed a decreasing trend until 2020. However, the central retinal artery occlusion decreased until 2014 and remained stable without a significant further decline until 2020. The incidence of total retinal vascular occlusion and retinal vein occlusion was higher in females than in males, while the incidence of central retinal artery occlusion was higher in males. All retinal vascular occlusive diseases showed an increasing incidence with older age; the peak age incidence was 75-79 years for total retinal vascular occlusion and retinal vein occlusion, and 80-85 years for central retinal artery occlusion.

Estimating the active and lifetime prevalence and incidence of epilepsy in Asian Countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

In the current era of the World Health Organization's Intersectoral Global Action Plan on Epilepsy and Other Neurological Disorders 2022-2031 (IGAP), precise and updated estimates of epilepsy burden are vital in formulating policies to improve the care of persons with epilepsy, especially in Asian countries with significant treatment gap. Hence, we aimed to consolidate the available data and quantify epilepsy prevalence and incidence estimates in Asian countries.

METHODS

We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, Ovid, and Scopus databases from inception until March 2023 for studies reporting epilepsy prevalence and incidence in Asian countries. We applied random effects meta-analysis to generate the pooled prevalence and incidence using the Meta package in R. Additionally, we performed a subgroup meta-analysis to explore the potential sources of heterogeneity. A meta-regression analysis was conducted to examine the trend of epilepsy over time.

RESULTS

A total of 99 studies with 100,654,124 participants were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence was 5.6 per 1000 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 4.4-6.8) for active epilepsy and 6.7 per 1000 (95 % CI 5.7-7.9) for lifetime epilepsy. The pooled incidence rate of epilepsy was 52.5 per 100,000 person-years (95 % CI 42.7-79.4). The subgroup analysis revealed a higher prevalence of active epilepsy (6.7/1000) and lifetime epilepsy (8.6/1000) in West Asia than in other regions. The funnel plot and Egger's test (p-value =<0.0001) revealed publication bias for active epilepsy.

CONCLUSION

Our findings highlight a high prevalence of active and lifetime epilepsy in West Asia and emphasize the necessity of implementing and formulating specific strategies to tackle the epilepsy burden in this region. Furthermore, high-quality epidemiological studies incorporating economic burdens and comorbidities associated with epilepsy in Asia are still needed.

[Screening for Duchenne muscular dystrophy in newborns in the Ningxia region]

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the incidence rate of Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) in the male newborns in the Ningxia region and establish a critical threshold for screening DMD in newborns to distinguish between the normal population and affected individuals.

METHODS

A total of 10 000 male newborns were screened using immunofluorescence analysis of creatine kinase isoenzyme concentrations in heel spot dried blood specimens. Newborns with the concentrations higher than the critical threshold were recalled for serum creatine kinase measurements. Genetic testing was performed to confirm diagnosis in cases showing abnormalities.

RESULTS

Among the screened 10 000 male newborns, two were confirmed to have DMD through genetic testing, resulting in a preliminary estimated incidence rate of 1/5 000 for male newborns in the Ningxia region. The critical threshold for creatine kinase isoenzyme concentration in newborns in this region was determined to be 468.57 ng/mL.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening for DMD in newborns is feasible in the Ningxia region. Early screening, diagnosis, and treatment of DMD can improve the quality of life for affected individuals and help families make informed decisions regarding further pregnancies.

Incidence and determinants of diabetic ketoacidosis among people with diabetes in Woldiya comprehensive specialized hospital, Ethiopia: a retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Diabetic ketoacidosis is an acute complication of diabetes mellitus that is characterised by hyperglycemia, acidosis, and ketonuria. Diabetes is the most challenging public health problem in the twenty-first century for both developed and developing countries.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the incidence of Diabetic ketoacidosis and its determinants among adult people with diabetes at an Ethiopian Hospital.

METHOD

An institution-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 390 adult people with diabetes attending services at Wolida Comprehensive Specialized Hospital. The consecutive sampling method was used to select study participant charts. Data were collected using a checklist prepared from different literature. The data were entered into EPI data version 4.6.0.5 and exported to STATA version 14.0 for further analysis. The Wiebull model was the best fitted model that was selected using the log-likelihood ratio method and the Akakian information criterion. Hazard ratios with their 95% confidence interval and p-value were computed.

RESULT

From the total 405 charts reviewed, 390 adult charts were included for analysis. A total of 121 DKA occurred from 5471 person-months of observation. The overall incidence rate of diabetic ketoacidosis was found to be 2.2 per 100 person-months (95% CI: 1.8- 2.6). Being urban dweller (AHR: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.36-0.99), having no family history of DM (AHR: 0.55, 95%CI: 0.31-0.97), presence of infection (AHR: 2.60, 95%CI = 1.06-6.39), having of any comorbidities (AHR: 4.31, 95% CI: 1.70-10.90), and having poor glycemic control (AHR: 7.45, 95% CI: 3.84-14.47) were significant determinants.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The overall incidence of diabetic ketoacidosis in study area was relatively high. Poor glycemic control, the presence of infection, and comorbidity were determinants of diabetic ketoacidosis. There is a need to have close follow-up of people with diabetes who have comorbidity, infection, and poor glycemic control.

Incidence of nerve injury following acupuncture treatments in Taiwan

OBJECTIVE

Acupuncture, a widely employed traditional therapeutic modality known for its efficacy in pain alleviation and diverse condition management, may inadvertently result in mechanical nerve injury due to its invasive nature. This research aimed to ascertain the incidence of nerve injuries post-acupuncture, identify associated risk factors, and map the distribution of nerve injury sites.

METHODS

A case-control study nested in the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) 2000-2018 two million cohort was conducted. Patients previously diagnosed with nerve injury, surgery, or degeneration before acupuncture were excluded. Cases were defined as patients receiving acupuncture and seeking medical attention for nerve injury (ICD9-CM code 950-957) within 14 days post-procedure, while control groups comprised patients undergoing acupuncture without subsequent adverse events. Invasive treatments prior to adverse events and adverse events occurring more than 14 days post-acupuncture were excluded. To ensure case-control comparability, factors such as age, gender, socioeconomic status, and medical facility environment were controlled using propensity score matching.

RESULTS

The study encompassed 14,507,847 acupuncture treatments administered to 886,753 patients, with 8361 instances of post-acupuncture nerve injury identified, representing an incidence rate of approximately 5.76 per 10,000 procedures. Age emerged as a significant risk factor, with the adjusted odds ratios escalating with age. Several comorbidities including diabetes, hypothyroidism, liver cirrhosis, chronic kidney disease, herpes zoster, hepatitis virus, rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, dementia, and cerebrovascular accidents were associated with an elevated risk of nerve injury post-acupuncture.

CONCLUSION

This study underscores the importance of meticulous patient profiling and cautious therapeutic approach in acupuncture, considering the evident influence of various demographic, systemic, and treatment-related factors on the incidence of nerve injuries.

Epidemiology and management of ankle sprain injuries over seven seasons in an elite professional ballet company

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the epidemiology and management of ankle ligament sprains over seven seasons in a professional ballet company.

DESIGN

Descriptive epidemiology study.

METHODS

Medical attention injury, time-loss injury, and exposure data pertaining to 140 professional ballet dancers were prospectively recorded by Chartered Physiotherapists over seven seasons (2015/16-2021/22); a period including the COVID-19 global pandemic.

RESULTS

Sixty-nine ankle sprains (46 time-loss) in 45 dancers (32 %) were recorded: 51 sprains were classified as grade I, 15 were classified as grade II, and three were classified as grade III; 53 sprains affected only one ligament, whilst 16 were multi-ligament sprains. For time-loss injuries, median time-loss durations varied by grading (I - 31 days, II - 54 days, and III - 147 days) and the number of ligaments affected (one - 31 days, two - 54 days, three - 134 days, four - 137 days), with time-loss ranging from 1 to 188 days. Of the 46 time-loss ankle sprains, eight were mild, nine were moderate, and 29 were severe. The incidence rate (injuries·1000 h-1) of medical attention ankle sprains was 0.073 (95 % CI: 0.046 to 0.117) in male dancers and 0.101 (95 % CI: 0.069 to 0.148) in female dancers, and the incidence of time-loss ankle sprains was 0.044 (95 % CI: 0.024 to 0.080) in male dancers and 0.064 (95 % CI: 0.040 to 0.103) in female dancers. No significant effect of sex was observed on either medical attention (p = .304) or time-loss (p = .327) ankle sprain incidence rates. Ten percent of dancers sustained multiple sprains across the seven seasons. Fifty and 39 % of ankle sprains in female and male dancers, respectively, were preceded by a history of ankle sprains. Jumping and landing (30 sprains) and non-dance movements (16 sprains) were the most common inciting movements. Bone bruising and synovitis were the most common concurrent pathologies.

CONCLUSIONS

Ankle sprains placed a considerable burden on the ballet company studied. These time-loss durations specified by number and grade of ligament sprain, injury history, and secondary pathologies can guide return-to-dance rehabilitation pathways.

Detecting high-risk neighborhoods and socioeconomic determinants for common oral diseases in Germany

BACKGROUND

Ideally, health services and interventions to improve dental health should be tailored to local target populations. But this is not the standard. Little is known about risk clusters in dental health care and their evaluation based on small-scale, spatial data, particularly among under-represented groups in health surveys. Our study aims to investigate the incidence rates of major oral diseases among privately insured and self-paying individuals in Germany, explore the spatial clustering of these diseases, and evaluate the influence of social determinants on oral disease risk clusters using advanced data analysis techniques, i.e. machine learning.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was performed to calculate the age- and sex-standardized incidence rate of oral diseases in a study population of privately insured and self-pay patients in Germany who received dental treatment between 2016 and 2021. This was based on anonymized claims data from BFS health finance, Bertelsmann, Dortmund, Germany. The disease history of individuals was recorded and aggregated at the ZIP code 5 level (n = 8871).

RESULTS

Statistically significant, spatially compact clusters and relative risks (RR) of incidence rates were identified. By linking disease and socioeconomic databases on the ZIP-5 level, local risk models for each disease were estimated based on spatial-neighborhood variables using different machine learning models. We found that dental diseases were spatially clustered among privately insured and self-payer patients in Germany. Incidence rates within clusters were significantly elevated compared to incidence rates outside clusters. The relative risks (RR) for a new dental disease in primary risk clusters were min = 1.3 (irreversible pulpitis; 95%-CI = 1.3-1.3) and max = 2.7 (periodontitis; 95%-CI = 2.6-2.8), depending on the disease. Despite some similarity in the importance of variables from machine learning models across different clusters, each cluster is unique and must be treated as such when addressing oral public health threats.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study analyzed the incidence of major oral diseases in Germany and employed spatial methods to identify and characterize high-risk clusters for targeted interventions. We found that private claims data, combined with a network-based, data-driven approach, can effectively pinpoint areas and factors relevant to oral healthcare, including socioeconomic determinants like income and occupational status. The methodology presented here enables the identification of disease clusters of greatest demand, which would allow implementing more targeted approaches and improve access to quality care where they can have the most impact.

Changing trends in disease burden of lung cancer in China from 1990-2019 and following 15-year prediction

BACKGROUND

As lung cancer becomes a primary source of death in China, investigation on incidence rate, death rate, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) is of great significance to optimize prevention measures and allocation of healthcare resources.

METHODS

We utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database to evaluate the incidence rate, death rate, and DALYs of lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2019. Analysis of lung cancer risk factor-related death rate and DALYs was performed. Age-standardized rates (ASR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were calculated. The incidence trend of lung cancer from 2020 to 2034 was predicted by the Nordpred age-period-cohort (APC) model.

RESULTS

Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased from 30.2/100000 (95 % UI 26.2-34.3) in 1990 to 41.7/100000 (95 % UI 35.2-48.8) in 2019, and EAPC was 1.33 (95 % CI 1.16-1.49). From 1990 to 2019, men were noted for the highest incidence rate, death rate, and DALYs rate across three age groups (15-49 years, 50-69 years, and over 70). During this period, the ASIR of lung cancer in females was always lower than that in males. The predominant risk factors of lung cancer were smoking, air pollution, and diet, among which smoking was the most significant one. The analysis results showed that new cases and deaths may increase in the following 15 years since 2020 in the context of lung cancer.

CONCLUSION

Faced with the heavy burden of lung cancer, China must issue corresponding policies and roll out prevention avenues against smoking and air pollution.

High rates of myocarditis with clozapine in the Hunter region of Australia

OBJECTIVE

To study the causes of clozapine treatment discontinuation and measure clozapine-induced myocarditis (CIM) rates in an Australian region, to compare the observed rates of CMI with reports from Australia and the world, and discuss factors related to CIM incidence rates in the region.

METHODS

The study is a retrospective clinical audit of 327 patients prescribed clozapine. All patients were monitored by the mandatory CIM monitoring protocol for the first six weeks of treatment. The validity of a diagnosis of CIM was assessed using six criteria. Socio-demographic and clinical factors and clozapine prescription practices were analysed for their association with CIM. The study could not examine co-existing medical illness, co-prescribed psychotropic medication, genetics, and environmental factors.

RESULTS

CIM occurred in 9.8 % of the cohort after a mean treatment duration of 19.5 days. The diagnosis of CIM was considered valid in all cases. Gender, age at the start of treatment, ethnicity, cumulative clozapine dose, dose titration, and clozapine/norclozapine ratio were unrelated to CIM.

CONCLUSION

The CIM rate in the Hunter region was higher than in the rest of Australia and the world and increased after adopting the monitoring protocol. Over-diagnosis, patient's age and gender, ethnicity, cumulative clozapine dose, dosing titration, and clozapine metabolism rate were unrelated to the high occurrence rates. The possible role of comorbid illnesses, co-prescribed psychiatric medications, genetic, and environmental factors in the etiology of CIM requires further study. The reasons underlying the high rates of CIM in the Hunter region need further exploration.

The spectrum of idiopathic inflammatory myopathies in Western Australia: epidemiological characteristics and mortality over time

To determine long term overall and subgroup specific incidence rates and associated mortality for idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (IIM) in a population wide study. We included patients hospitalised between 1980 and 2015 with incident IIM as defined by relevant diagnostic codes for dermatomyositis (DM) polymyositis (PM), inclusion body myositis (IBM), other IIM and overlap myositis (OM) in the Western Australia Health Hospital Morbidity Data Collection (n = 846). Trends over time for annual incidence rate per million population (AIR) were analysed by least square regression and Kaplan-Meier survival and mortality rates (MR)/100 person years compared with a matched control group (n = 3681). The averaged AIR for all IIM was 19 (CI 10.4-27.5) and stable over time with point prevalence reaching 205.3 (CI 185.6-226.6) per million in 2015. Over time, the AIR for DM 5.0 (CI 0.6-9.4) and IBM 3.3 (CI 0.7-9.6) was stable, while AIR decreased for PM (p < 0.01) and increased for other IIM (p < 0.01) and OM (p < 0.01). IBM patients were eldest at diagnosis (68 years, CI 59-77) with male preponderance in IBM (53.4%) and other IIM (55.8%) groups. Crude mortality (54.5 vs 41.3%), MR ratio (6.65 vs 5.91) and 5 (65.8% vs 71.6%) and 10-year (52.5% vs 58.7%) survival were all worse for IIM patients (all p < 0.05). IBM patients had highest MR (10.1; CI 8.38-12.14) and lowest 10-year survival (39.2%). While cardiovascular disease and cancer were predominant causes of death, they were proportionally lower in IIM patients, where respiratory and rheumatic disease were more frequent causes of death. While the overall incidence of IIM in WA was stable over 35 years, the spectrum of IIM has changed significantly with increases especially in other IIM and OM. The overall prognosis with IIM remains guarded with 10-year survival just over 50%.

Age-period-cohort analysis of incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years of esophageal cancer in global, regional and national regions from 1990 to 2019

OBJECTIVE

In view of the high incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer, the latest statistical data on the disease burden of esophageal cancer can provide strategies for cancer screening, early detection and treatment, and help to rationally allocate health resources. This study provides an analysis of the global disease burden and risk factors of esophageal cancer from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Using the 2019 Global Burden of Disease, Injury and Risk Factor (GBD) data, we present the incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) of esophageal cancer in 21 regions and 204 countries and different sociodemographic index (SDI) regions from 1990 to 2019. The age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the age, period, and cohort trend of esophageal cancer in different SDI regions. The estimated proportion of DALY attributable to each risk factor from 1990 to 2019.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the number of new cases of esophageal cancer, the number of deaths and DALY increased by 67.07%, 55.97% and 42.13%, respectively, but age standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age standardized DALY rate (ASDR) decreased by 19.28%, 25.32% and 88.22%, respectively. Overall, the results of the age-period-cohort model showed that the incidence, mortality, and DALY rates in countries and regions with higher SDI levels showed a downward trend over time and with the passage of time. Conversely, there were no significant changes in incidence and mortality in countries and regions with low SDI levels. In the past 30 years, the incidence and death of esophageal cancer in the world has gradually changed to people over 80 years old, but the population aged 60-79 still accounts for the largest proportion. The global DALY in esophageal cancer is mainly attributable to smoking, followed by alcohol consumption and occupational exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

Although ASIR, ASMR and ASDR have decreased significantly, esophageal cancer is still the main factor causing the disease burden worldwide. Public health administrators in low SDI and low-middle SDI countries are high-risk areas for esophageal cancer, and preventive control measures should be implemented to raise awareness, screening, and treatment of esophageal cancer in these areas. Tobacco and alcohol control and reduction of occupational hazards are key steps in reducing the burden of esophageal cancer.

Trends in the incidence and survival of cancer in individuals aged 55 years and older in the United States, 1975-2019

BACKGROUND

In ageing societies such as the United States, evaluating the incidence and survival rates of cancer in older adults is essential. This study aimed to analyse the incidence and survival rates of cancer in individuals aged 55 years or older in the United States.

METHODS

This retrospective study (1975-2019) was conducted using combined registry data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Data from the 9, 12, and 17 Registries (Nov 2021 Sub) datasets were used.

RESULTS

In 2019, the incidence of cancer in individuals older than 55 years and the overall population was 1322.8 and 382.1 per 100,000 population, respectively. From 2000 to 2019, the incidence of cancer in individuals older than 55 years showed a decreasing trend, whereas their five-year survival rates showed an increasing trend. The incidence of cancer in the 75-79 and 80-84 year age groups was the highest among all age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of colon cancer declined significantly, whereas that of intrahepatic bile duct cancer increased considerably. These trends may be due to increased screening for cancers with high incidence rates and improved control of the risk factors for cancer. Rapid development of targeted therapy and immunotherapy combined with early tumour detection may be an important reason for the improved survival rates.

Prevalence and trend of multiple coronary artery disease risk factors and their 5-year incidence rate among adult population of Kerman: results from KERCADR study

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery diseases (CADs) are the most important non‑communicable diseases (NCDs), which cause the highest number of deaths around the world. Hypertension (HTN), dyslipidemia (DL), diabetes mellitus (DM), obesity (OB), low physical activity (LPA), smoking, opium consumption (OC) and anxiety are the most important CAD risk factors, which are more dangerously present in combination in some patients.

METHODS

A total of 5835 people aged 15 to 75 years were enrolled in the phase 1 (2012) and followed up to the phase 2 (2017) of the population-based Kerman coronary artery diseases risk factors study (KERCADRS). The prevalence and pattern of different combinations of CAD risk factors (double to quintuple) and their 5-year incidence rates were assessed.

RESULTS

The prevalence of single CAD risk factors (RFs) in phase 2 was 50.2% (DL), 47.1% (LPA), 28.1% (abdominal obesity), 21.2% (OB), 16.5% (HTN), 9.2% (smoking), 9.1% (OC), and 8.4% (DM). The most frequent combination of risk factors was LPA plus DL (23.9%), metabolic syndrome (19.6%), and DL plus OB (17.8%). The 5-year incidence rates of multiple comorbidities (in persons per 100 person-years) was DL plus LPA (2.80%), HTN plus DL (1.53%), and abdominal obesity (AOB) plus DL (1.47%). The most participants (84.4%) suffered from at least one RF, while 54.9% had at least two and 29.9% had at least three RFs.

CONCLUSION

The results showed that a large portion of the study population suffers from multiple CAD RFs. The findings underscore the importance of identifying multiple CAD risk factors to reduce the overall burden of these NCDs.

Trends and projections of the burden of osteoarthritis disease in China and globally: A comparative study of the 2019 global burden of disease database

This study aims to characterize the burden of osteoarthritis in China and globally from 1990 to 2019 and predict the burden for the next decade. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database is designed to assess the burden of various diseases and injuries on a global scale. Age-standardized rate data for the incidence, prevalence, and Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) of osteoarthritis in both China and the global context were extracted. Furthermore, the Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) to illustrate the long-term trends in the burden of osteoarthritis disease was calculated. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were applied to forecast the trends in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized YLDs rate (ASYR) for osteoarthritis in China and globally for the next 11 years. Knee osteoarthritis showed a changing trend of ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR from 1990 to 2019 in China, initially decreasing and then increasing. In contrast, global osteoarthritis exhibited a relatively stable overall trend over three decades. Knee osteoarthritis exhibited the highest incidence, prevalence, and YLDs across various age groups and genders. The ARIMA forecast indicated a slight upward trend in osteoarthritis burden in China and globally over the next 11 years. Osteoarthritis poses a significant health issue, emphasizing the need to enhance awareness and management of osteoarthritis among the population and policymakers, particularly focusing on the elderly and female populations.

Impact of 1,7-malaria reactive community-based testing and response (1,7-mRCTR) approach on malaria prevalence in Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Progress in malaria control has stalled in recent years and innovative surveillance and response approaches are needed to accelerate malaria control and elimination efforts in endemic areas of Africa. Building on a previous China-UK-Tanzania pilot study on malaria control, this study aimed to assess the impact of the 1,7-malaria Reactive Community-Based Testing and Response (1,7-mRCTR) approach implemented over two years in three districts of Tanzania.

METHODS

The 1,7-mRCTR approach provides community-based malaria testing via rapid diagnostic tests and treatment in villages with the highest burden of malaria incidence based on surveillance data from health facilities. We used a difference-in-differences quasi-experimental design with linear probability models and two waves of cross-sectional household surveys to assess the impact of 1,7-mRCTR on malaria prevalence. We conducted sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of our results, examined how intervention effects varied in subgroups, and explored alternative explanations for the observed results.

RESULTS

Between October 2019 and September 2021, 244,771 community-based malaria rapid tests were completed in intervention areas, and each intervention village received an average of 3.85 rounds of 1-7mRCTR. Malaria prevalence declined from 27.4% at baseline to 11.7% at endline in the intervention areas and from 26.0% to 16.0% in the control areas. 1,7-mRCTR was associated with a 4.5-percentage-point decrease in malaria prevalence (95% confidence interval: - 0.067, - 0.023), equivalent to a 17% reduction from the baseline. In Rufiji, a district characterized by lower prevalence and where larviciding was additionally provided, 1,7-mRCTR was associated with a 63.9% decline in malaria prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

The 1,7-mRCTR approach reduced malaria prevalence. Despite implementation interruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic and supply chain challenges, the study provided novel evidence on the effectiveness of community-based reactive approaches in moderate- to high-endemicity areas and demonstrated the potential of South-South cooperation in tackling global health challenges.

Exploring the geospatial epidemiology of breast cancer in Iran: identifying significant risk factors and spatial patterns for evidence-based prevention strategies

BACKGROUND

Breast Cancer (BC) is a formidable global health challenge, and Iran is no exception, with BC accounting for a significant proportion of women's malignancies. To gain deeper insights into the epidemiological characteristics of BC in Iran, this study employs advanced geospatial techniques and feature selection methods to identify significant risk factors and spatial patterns associated with BC incidence.

METHODS

Using rigorous statistical methods, geospatial data from Iran, including cancer-related, sociodemographic, healthcare infrastructure, environmental, and air quality data at the provincial level, were meticulously analyzed. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) are calculated, and different regression models are used to identify significant variables associated with BC incidence. Spatial analysis techniques, including global and local Moran's index, geographically weighted regression, and Emerging hotspot analysis, were utilized to examine geospatial patterns, identify clustering and hotspots, and assess spatiotemporal distribution of BC incidence.

RESULTS

The findings reveal that BC predominantly affects women (98.03%), with higher incidence rates among those aged 50 to 79. Isfahan (ASR = 26.1) and Yazd (ASR = 25.7) exhibit the highest rates. Significant predictors of BC incidence, such as marriage, tertiary education attainment rate, physician-to-population ratio, and PM2.5 air pollution, are identified through regression models.

CONCLUSION

The study's results provide valuable information for the development of evidence-based prevention strategies to reduce the burden of BC in Iran. The findings underscore the importance of early detection, health education campaigns, and targeted interventions in high-risk clusters and adjacent regions. The geospatial insights generated by this study have implications for policy-makers, researchers, and public health practitioners, facilitating the formulation of effective BC prevention strategies tailored to the unique epidemiological patterns in Iran.

Trends and prediction in the incidence rate of hepatitis C in Shandong Province in China from 2004 to 2030

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C threatens human health and brings a heavy economic burden. Shandong Province is the second most populous province in China and has uneven regional economic development. Therefore, we analyzed the incidence rate trend and regional differences of hepatitis C in Shandong Province from 2004 to 2021.

METHODS

The monthly and annual incidence rates of hepatitis C in Shandong Province from 2022 to 2030 were predicted by fitting Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and ARIMA-LSTM combined model.

RESULTS

From 2004 to 2021, annual new cases of hepatitis C in Shandong Province increased from 635 to 5834, with a total of 61,707 cases. The incidence rate increased from 0.69/100 thousand in 2004 to 6.40/100 thousand in 2019, with a slight decrease in 2020 and 2021. The average annual incidence rate was 3.47/100 thousand. In terms of regional distribution, the hepatitis C incidence rate in Shandong Province was generally high in the west and low in the east. It is estimated that the hepatitis C incidence rate in Shandong Province will be 9.21 per 100 thousand in 2030.

CONCLUSION

The hepatitis C incidence rate in Shandong Province showed an increasing trend from 2004 to 2019 and a decreasing trend in 2020 and 2021. Significant regional variations in incidence rate existed. An upward trend in incidence rate is predicted from 2022 to 2030. It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of hepatitis C to achieve the goal of eliminating viral hepatitis by 2030.

Multidrug-resistant isolates from Ukrainian patients in a German health facility: a genomic surveillance study focusing on antimicrobial resistance and bacterial relatedness

PURPOSE

Antimicrobial resistance is a pressing issue in Ukraine, with healthcare-associated infections caused by multidrug-resistant organisms being a major concern. A recent prospective multicenter study revealed a staggering rate of 48.4% antimicrobial resistance to carbapenems among Enterobacterales causing a healthcare-associated infection. We conducted a systematic survey to investigate the incidence rate and incidence density of carbapenemase-producing Gram-negative bacteria (CPGN) among refugees and war-wounded Ukrainians in connection with the German health system.

METHODS

From the onset of the war until November 2022, seven Ukrainian patients were admitted to our hospital. Upon admission, screening samples and samples from the focus of suspected infection were taken from all seven patients. The incidence rate and the incidence density of CPGN were calculated as a result of the microbiological findings. We sequenced all CPGN using Illumina technology.

RESULTS

The incidence rate of CPGN at our hospital was 0.06 for 2021 and 0.18 for 2022. All seven Ukrainian patients were infected or colonized with at least one CPGN, including K. pneumoniae (14/25), P. aeruginosa (6/25), A. baumannii (1/25), Providencia stutartii (1/25), C. freundii (1/25), and E. coli (2/25). Genomic surveillance revealed that (i) most frequently detected carbapenemases among all sequenced isolates were blaNDM (17/25) and blaOXA-48 (6/25), (ii) most commonly observed plasmid replicons among the K. pneumoniae isolates recovered from Ukrainian patients were Col(pHAD28) (12/14), IncHI1B(pNDM-MAR) (9/14), IncFIB(pNDM-Mar) (12/14), and (iii) clonal relation between the pathogens of the Ukrainian isolates, but not for the isolates from our hospital surveillance system.

CONCLUSION

The rising prevalence of community-acquired colonization and infection with CPGN is having a direct effect on the infection prevention measures, such as higher number of isolations, reprocessing of patient rooms, additional microbiological testing and overall organization within hospitals.

Incidence rate drive the multiple wave in the COVID-19 pandemic

The last three years have been the most challenging for humanity due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The novel viral infection has eventually been able to infect most of the human population. It is now considered to be in the endemic stage, meaning it will remain in our world throughout our lifetime. There will be an intermittent outbreak of the COVID infection from time to time. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate a robust Mathematical model to study the dynamics of disease to have a control mechanism in place. In this article, we suggest a modified MSEIR model to explain the dynamics of COVID-19 infection. We assume that a susceptible person contracting the coronavirus develops a transient immunity to the illness. Further, infectives comprise asymptomatic, symptomatic, hospitalized and quarantined individuals. We assume that the incidence rate is of standard type, and susceptible can only become infective if they come in contact with either asymptomatic or symptomatic individuals. This basic and simple model effectively models the various waves every country has seen during the Pandemic. The simple analysis shows that the model could suggest various waves in future if we carefully select the incidence rate for the infection. In summary, we have discussed the following major points in this article. •We have analysed for local behavior infection-free equilibrium solution. Further, a thorough numerical exploration with various parameter settings has been performed to obtain the different cases of infection dynamics of the coronavirus epidemic.•We have found some interesting scenarios which explain the emergence of multiple waves observed in many countries.

Trends in incidence, health care consumption, and medical and productivity costs of femoral shaft fractures in the Netherlands between 2005 and 2019

INTRODUCTION

Population-based knowledge on the occurrence of femoral shaft fractures is necessary for allocation of health care services, optimization of preventive measures, and research purposes. This nationwide study aimed to provide an overview on the incidence of femoral shaft fractures over a 15-year period and to gain insight into health care consumption and work absence with associated costs in the Dutch population.

METHODS

Data of patients who sustained an acute femoral shaft fracture in the years 2005-2019 were extracted from the National Medical Registration of the Dutch Hospital Database. The incidence rate, hospital length of stay (HLOS), direct medical costs, productivity costs, and years lived with disability were calculated for age- and gender specific groups.

RESULTS

A total of 15,847 patients with a femoral shaft fracture were included. The incidence rate increased with 13 % over this 15-year period (5.71/100,000 persons per year in 2005 and 6.47/100,000 in 2019). The mean HLOS per patient was 13.8 days in 2005-2009 versus 8.4 days in 2015-2019 for the entire group. Mean HLOS per patient increased with age (10.0 days for age group 0-9 and 12.7 days for age group >80), but declined over time from 13.6 days in 2005-2009 to 8.8 days in 2015-2019 in males, and from 13.7 days and to 8.2 days, respectively, in females. The costs due to work absence was higher in males. Cumulative health care costs were highest in females >80 years (8.4 million euros versus 1.6 million in males).

CONCLUSION

The incidence rate of femoral shaft fractures increased over the past 15 years in the Netherlands. Mean HLOS per patient has decreased in all age groups and in both sexes. Health care costs were highest for female octogenarians.

Incidence and Risk Factors of Second Eye Involvement in Myopic Macular Neovascularization

PURPOSE

To report the cumulative incidence and risk factors of second eye involvement after diagnosis of myopic macular neovascularization (MNV) in the first eye.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of longitudinal data from a tertiary hospital in the Netherlands.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with high myopia (spherical equivalent [SE] ≤ - 6 diopters [D]), of European ethnicity, who were diagnosed with active MNV lesion in 1 eye between 2005 and 2018. Fellow eyes were free of MNV or macular atrophy at baseline, and data were collected on the SE, axial length, and presence of diffuse or patchy chorioretinal atrophy and lacquer cracks.

METHODS

Incidence rate and 2-, 5-, and 10-year cumulative incidences were calculated; hazard ratios (HRs) of second eye involvement were analyzed for potential risk factors using Cox proportional hazard models.

MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES

Incidence of second eye involvement after onset of myopic MNV in the first eye.

RESULTS

We included 88 patients over a period of 13 years with a mean age of 58 ± 15 years, mean axial length of 30 ± 1.7 mm and SE -14 ± 4 D at baseline. Twenty-four fellow eyes (27%) developed a myopic MNV during follow-up. This resulted in an incidence rate of 4.6 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.9-6.7) per 100 person-years and a cumulative incidence of 8%, 21%, and 38% at 2, 5, and 10 years, respectively. Mean time until MNV development in the fellow eye was 48 ± 37 months. Patients aged < 40 years at the initial presentation had a 3.8 times higher risk of bilateral myopic MNV (HR, 3.8; 95% CI, 1.65-8.69; P = 0.002). The presence of lacquer cracks in the second eye seemed to increase risk, but this did not reach statistical significance (HR, 2.25; 95% CI, 0.94-5.39; P = 0.07).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study of high myopes of European descent shows very similar incidence rates for second eye myopic MNV compared with Asian studies. Our findings substantiate the importance for clinicians to monitor closely and create awareness, especially in younger patients.

FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S)

The authors have no proprietary or commercial interest in any materials discussed in this article.

Incidence of asymptomatic catheter-related thrombosis in intensive care unit patients: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Catheter-related thrombosis (CRT) incidence, rate, and risk factors vary in literature due to differences in populations, catheters, diagnostic methods, and statistical approaches. The aim of this single-center, prospective, observational study was to assess incidence, incidence rate (IR), cumulative incidence, and risk factors by means of IR ratio (IRR) of asymptomatic CRT in a non-oncologic Intensive Care Unit (ICU) population. CRT development was assessed daily by means of ultrasound screening. The proportions of patients and catheters developing CRT and CRT incidence rates, expressed as the number of events per catheter-days (cd), were calculated. Kalbfleisch and Prentice's method was used to estimate the cumulative incidence of CRTs. Univariate and multivariable Poisson regression models were fitted to calculate IRR in risk factors analysis.

RESULTS

Fifty (25%, 95% CI 19-31) out of 203 included patients, and 52 (14%, 95% CI 11-18) out of 375 catheters inserted developed CRT [IR 17.7 (13.5-23.2) CRTs/1000*cd], after 5 [3-10] days from insertion. Forty-six CRTs (88%) were partial thrombosis. All CRTs remained asymptomatic. Obesity and ECMO support were patient-related protective factors [IRR 0.24 (0.10-0.60), p = 0.002 and 0.05 (0.01-0.50), p = 0.011, respectively]. The internal jugular vein had higher CRT IR than other sites [20.1 vs. 5.9 CRTs/1000*cd, IRR 4.22 (1.22-14.63), p = 0.023]. Pulmonary artery catheter and left-side cannulation were catheter-related risk factors [IRR 4.24 (2.00-9.00), p < 0.001 vs. central venous catheters; IRR 2.69 (1.45-4.98), p = 0.002 vs. right cannulation, respectively]. No statistically significant effect of the number of simultaneously inserted catheters [IRR 1.11 (0.64-1.94), p = 0.708] and of the catheterization length [IRR 1.09 (0.97-1.22), p = 0.155] was detected. The ICU length of stay was longer in CRT patients (20 [15-31] vs. 6 [4-14] days, p < 0.001), while no difference in mortality was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

CRTs are frequent but rarely symptomatic. This study suggests that obesity and ECMO are protective factors, while pulmonary artery catheter, internal jugular vein and left-side positioning are risk factors for CRT.

Physical activity and survival in chronic comorbidity among adult HIV patients in Ethiopia: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy enables people living with HIV to live long lives, and these advances have transformed HIV infection from an acute to a chronic disease. Many non-communicable diseases, including type 2 diabetes, heart disease, and stroke, are influenced by physical inactivity. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess the level of physical activity and survival in chronic co-morbidity among adult people living with HIV in Ethiopia.

METHODS

An institution-based prospective cohort study of adult people living with HIV was conducted between 2019 and 2021. We included 422 people living with HIV at baseline. After the baseline visit, 364 patients without hypertension or diabetes, were followed up for two years. Nine trained nurses used a pre-tested, structured questionnaire to collect data during routine care consultations in three hospitals in southern Ethiopia. STATA version 15 was used to analyze the data. To estimate the survival probability of developing chronic comorbidities, a Kaplan-Meier survival curve was used. A Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to identify the predictors of the development of chronic comorbidities.

RESULT

In the current study, 39% of the participants were found to have a low level of physical activity. Those who had self-management skills to maintain physical activity (p = 0.023), considered physical activity an important aspect of their HIV management (p = 0.003), and regularly attended social support groups (p = 0.002) had significantly higher levels of physical activity. The risk of chronic comorbidity increased over time, with a rate of 10.83 chronic comorbidities per 1000 persons per month. Lack of regular exercise [AHR: 2.04; 95% CI: (1.03, 5.13)], low physical activity [AHR: 2.01; 95% CI: (1.03, 7.89)], BMI greater than 25 kg/m2 [AHR: 2.74; 95% CI: (1.31, 5.12)] and low fruit and vegetable intake [AHR = 2.57; 95% CI: (1.28, 6.49)] were all associated with the development of chronic comorbidity.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of physical inactivity is high in the study population. A physical activity program for people living with HIV should be considered, and the promotion of self-management skills should be integrated into HIV care programs.

Incidence, risk factors and outcomes of checkpoint inhibitor-induced liver injury: A 10-year real-world retrospective cohort study

Background & Aims

Checkpoint inhibitors (CPI) account for increasing numbers of drug-induced liver injury (DILI) cases. We aimed to determine the incidence rate and risk factors associated with checkpoint inhibitor-induced liver injury (ChILI).

Methods

Prescription event monitoring was performed on all melanoma and renal cancer patients who received CPI at a tertiary centre between 2011 and 2021. ChILI cases were identified using the definitions, grading, and causality assessment methods validated for DILI. We assessed risk factors associated with ChILI in CPI-naive patients using multivariable logistic regression model. Consecutive patients with suspected ChILI from two other tertiary centres were adjudicated and combined for case characterisation and outcomes of ChILI.

Results

Out of 432 patients who received CPI over 10 years, ChILI occurred in 38 (8.8%) with an overall incidence rate of 11.5 per 1,000 person-months (95% CI 8.2-15.8). Probability of ChILI was highest in combination therapy (32%) and no new events occurred beyond 135 days of treatment. Risk factor analysis showed that combination therapy, female sex, higher baseline alanine transferase level and lower baseline alkaline phosphatase level were independently associated with higher risk of ChILI. In total, 99 patients were adjudicated to have ChILI from three centres. Although Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events classified 20 patients (20.2%) to have 'life-threatening' grade 4 hepatitis, ChILI severity was graded as mild in 45 (45.5%) and moderate in the remaining 54 (54.5%) cases.

Conclusions

The real-world risk of ChILI is higher than previously reported. Among patients receiving dual CPI, this risk falls markedly after 4.5 months. As Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events overestimates its clinical severity, case-definition, evaluation and management of ChILI should be revised to harmonise care.

Impact and implications

Using prescription event monitoring over a 10-year period, the incidence rate of checkpoint inhibitor induced liver injury (ChILI) based on established case definitions for drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is 11.5 per 1,000 person-months. Formal causality assessment identified an alternative cause in 19% of patients with suspected ChILI highlighting the importance of systematic evaluation by clinicians to minimise unnecessary immunosuppression. Intensity of monitoring in patients receiving combination therapy regime after 4.5 months of therapy can be reduced as the risk of new onset ChILI beyond this point is minimal. Current Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) grading overestimates clinical severity of ChILI and hence contributes to avoidable hospitalisation.

A nationwide study of temporal trends of cause-specific hospital readmissions in patients with heart failure

AIMS

The impact of hospital readmissions on the outcomes of heart failure (HF) patients is well known. However, data on temporal trends of cause-specific hospital readmissions in these patients are limited.

METHODS AND RESULTS

From 1987 to 2014, we identified and followed up for 1 year 608 135 patients ≥18 years hospitalized with HF according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 9 and 10 from the National Inpatient Register. Readmissions for cardiovascular (CVD) and non-CVD causes and co-morbidities were defined according to ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes. We analysed trends in the incidence rate of readmissions, the median time to the first rehospitalization, and the time to readmission, stratified by sex, age groups and cause of rehospitalization using linear regression. During our study, 1 year all-cause mortality decreased (β = -4.93, P < 0.0001), but the incidence rate of readmissions per 1000 person-years remained unchanged. The readmission rate for CVD causes decreased; in contrast, the readmission rate increased across all age and sex groups for non-CVD causes. Analysing the patients by study periods (1987-1997, 1998-2007 and 2008-2014), CVD and non-CVD co-morbidities had a statistically significant increasing trend (P < 0.001). The median time in hospital decreased and the median time to the first readmission were almost unchanged.

CONCLUSIONS

Contrary to a declining mortality rate, the incidence rate of readmissions saw no change, possibly because of divergent trends in cause-specific readmissions. An increasing rate of readmissions for non-CVD causes underscores the importance of optimising multimorbidity management to reduce the risk of readmissions in patients with HF.

The incidence of type 1 diabetes in children under 15 years of age is rising again-a nationwide study

International incidence rates (IRs) and trends of childhood type 1 diabetes (T1D) vary. Recent data from Ireland and other high incidence countries suggested a stabilisation in IRs of T1D in children aged under 15 years. Our primary objective was to report the IR of T1D in children in Ireland from 2019 to 2021 and evaluate if age, sex and season of diagnosis had changed. Incident cases of T1D in those aged under 15 years were identified prospectively by clinicians nationally and reported to the Irish Childhood Diabetes National Register (ICDNR). Following case verification, capture-recapture methodology was applied, and IRs calculated. Numbers of children including age, sex and season of diagnosis per year were evaluated. There were 1027 cases, 542 males (53%). The direct standardised incidence rates (SIRs) increased by 21% overall and were 31.1, 32.2 and 37.6/100,000/year, respectively, with no significant sex difference. The highest IRs were in the 10-14-year category until 2021, then changed to the 5-9-year category (40% of cases). Whilst autumn and winter remain dominant diagnostic seasons, seasonality differed in 2021 with a greater number presenting in spring.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of childhood T1D in Ireland is increasing, observed prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, and shifting to an earlier age at diagnosis for the first time. The pattern of seasonality also appears to have changed. This may reflect an increased severity of diabetes with important implications for healthcare providers.

WHAT IS KNOWN

• Ireland has a very high incidence of T1D in childhood, which had stabilised following a rapid rise, similar to other high incidence countries. • The incidence rate is consistently highest in older children (10-14 years).

WHAT IS NEW

• Irish IR is no longer stable and has increased again, with the highest incidence occurring in the younger 5-9 age category for the first time. • The seasonality of diagnosis has changed during the COVID-19 pandemic years of 2020-2021.

Incidence and prevalence of neurofibromatosis type 1 and 2: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To obtain updated estimates of the incidence and prevalence of neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) and type 2 (NF2).

STUDY DESIGN

We conducted a systematic search of NF1 and NF2 incidence or prevalence studies, in OVID Medline, OVID Embase, Web of Science, and Cinahl. Studies were appraised with the Joanna Briggs Institute Prevalence Critical Appraisal tool. Pooled incidence and prevalence rates were estimated through random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

From 1,939 abstracts, 20 studies were fully appraised and 12 were included in the final review. Pooled NF1 prevalence was 1 in 3,164 (95%CI: 1 in 2,132-1 in 4,712). This was higher in studies that screened for NF1, compared to identification of NF1 through medical records (1 in 2,020 and 1 in 4,329, respectively). NF1 pooled birth incidence was 1 in 2,662 (95%CI: 1 in 1,968-1 in 3,601). There were only 2 studies on NF2 prevalence, so data were not pooled. Pooled NF2 birth incidence was 1.08 per 50,000 births (95%CI: 1 in 32,829-1 in 65,019).

CONCLUSION

We present updated estimates of the incidence and prevalence of NF1 and NF2, to help plan for healthcare access and allocation. The prevalence of NF1 from screening studies is higher than from medical record studies, suggesting that the disease may be under recognized. More studies are needed regarding the prevalence of NF2.

Sinonasal mucormycosis during 2 years of COVID-19 pandemic in central Iran: incidence rate and clinical features

INTRODUCTION

As a novel infectious disease, COVID-19 is caused by SARS-COV-2, spreading rapidly worldwide. ENT specialists have faced this challenging disease in various ways since the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic. We are currently facing an increase in cases referred due to sinonasal mucormycosis which is a rare but invasive, rapidly progressive, and life-threatening infection. We provide an overview of this disease's incidence rate and clinical features.

METHODS

This descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted on 46 sinonasal mucormycosis patients who were histopathologically confirmed after sinonasal endoscopic surgery in our educational therapeutic hospital during 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic from March 20, 2020, to March 20, 2022.

RESULTS

There was an increase in the incidence of mucormycosis more than twice as much as before. All patients had a history of COVID-19 and 69.6% were diabetic. The median time to symptom onset from COVID-19 detection was 3.3 weeks. A total of 60.9% received steroids while 85.7% were prescribed during COVID-19 treatment. The most common manifestation was orbital involvement (80.4%). Of the 46 study cases, unfortunately, 17 (37%) died. An exciting point in our study was the incidence of peripheral facial palsy which is associated involvement of multiple other cranial nerves (II, III, IV, V, VI) considered to be the likely occurrence of a rare phenomenon called Garcin's syndrome.

CONCLUSION

Based on the results of this study, during 2 years of the COVID -19 pandemic, there was an increase in the incidence of sinonasal mucormycosis more than twice as much as before.

Epidemiology of Acute Aortic Dissection in a General Population of 1.4 Million People in Japan - Shiga Stroke and Heart Attack Registry

BACKGROUND

Acute aortic dissection (AAD) is a life-threatening cardiovascular disease, with a reported incidence rate ranging from 2.5 to 7.2 per 100,000 person-years in several population-based registries in Western countries, but epidemiological data are lacking in Japan.Methods and Results: The Shiga Stroke and Heart Attack Registry is an ongoing multicenter population-based registry of cerebro-cardiovascular diseases. We enrolled patients who developed AAD, defined by any imaging examination method from 2014 to 2015 in Shiga Prefecture. Death certificates were used to identify cases that were not registered at acute care hospitals. The incidence rates of AAD were calculated by age categories and adjusted using standard populations for comparison. We evaluated differences in patient characteristics between Stanford type A-AAD and type B-AAD subtypes. A total of 402 incident cases with AAD were analyzed. The age-adjusted incidence rates using the 2015 Japanese population and the 2013 European Standard Population were 15.8 and 12.2 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. Compared with cases of type B-AAD, those with type A-AAD were older (75.0 vs. 69.9 years, P=0.001) and more likely to be women (62.3% vs. 28.6%, P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Population-based incidence rates of AAD in Japan appear to be higher than in previous reports from Western countries. Incident cases with type A-AAD were older and female predominance.

Predictive potential of SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater to assess the dynamics of COVID-19 clinical outcomes and infections

Coronavirus disease 2019 - caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) -, has triggered a worldwide pandemic resulting in 665 million infections and over 6.5 million deaths as of December 15, 2022. The development of different epidemiological tools have helped predict new outbreaks and assess the behavior of clinical variables in different health contexts. In this study, we aimed to monitor concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater as a tool to predict the progression of clinical variables during Waves 3, 5, and 6 of the pandemic in the Spanish city of Xátiva from September 2020 to March 2022. We estimated SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in 195 wastewater samples using the RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel validated by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We also compared the trends of several clinical variables (14-day cumulative incidence, positive cases, hospital cases and stays, critical cases and stays, primary care visits, and deaths) for each study wave against wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations using Pearson's product-moment correlations, a two-sided Mann-Whitney U test, and a cross-correlation analysis. We found strong correlations between SARS-CoV-2 concentrations with 14-day cumulative incidence and positive cases over time. Wastewater RNA concentrations showed strong correlations with these variables one and two weeks in advance. There were significant correlations with hospitalizations and critical care during Wave 3 and Wave 6; cross-correlations were stronger for hospitalization stays one week before during Wave 6. No association between vaccination percentages and wastewater viral concentrations was observed. Our findings support wastewater SARS-CoV-2 concentrations as a potential surveillance tool to anticipate infection and epidemiological data such as 14-day cumulative incidence, hospitalizations, and critical care stays. Public health authorities could use this epidemiological tool on a similar population as an aid for health care decision-making during an epidemic outbreak.

Interrupted time series analysis using the ARIMA model of the impact of COVID-19 on the incidence rate of notifiable communicable diseases in China

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in China is ongoing. Some studies have shown that the incidence of respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases in 2020 decreased significantly compared with previous years. Interrupted time series (ITS) is a time series analysis method that evaluates the impact of intervention measures on outcomes and can control the original regression trend of outcomes before and after the intervention. This study aimed to analyse the impact of COVID-19 on the incidence rate of notifiable communicable diseases using ITS in China.

METHODS

National data on the incidence rate of communicable diseases in 2009-2021 were obtained from the National Health Commission website. Interrupted time series analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models was used to analyse the changes in the incidence rate of infectious diseases before and after the COVID-19 epidemic.

RESULTS

There was a significant short-term decline in the incidence rates of respiratory infectious diseases and enteric infectious diseases (step values of -29.828 and - 8.237, respectively), which remained at a low level for a long time after the decline. There was a short-term decline in the incidence rates of blood-borne and sexually transmitted infectious diseases (step = -3.638), which tended to recover to previous levels in the long term (ramp = 0.172). There was no significant change in the incidence rate of natural focus diseases or arboviral diseases before and after the epidemic.

CONCLUSION

The COVID-19 epidemic had strong short-term and long-term effects on respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases and short-term control effects on blood-borne and sexually transmitted infectious diseases. Our methods for the prevention and control of COVID-19 can be used for the prevention and control of other notifiable communicable diseases, especially respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases.

Trends in incidence, health care consumption, and costs for proximal femoral fractures in the Netherlands between 2000 and 2019: a nationwide study

This study evaluated the incidence rates and societal burden of hip fractures in The Netherlands. Although incidence in the elderly population is decreasing and hospital stay is at an all-time low, the burden of medical costs and crude numbers of proximal femoral fractures are still rising in our aging population.

PURPOSE

The aim of this nationwide study was to provide an overview of the incidence rate and economic burden of acute femoral neck and trochanteric fractures in The Netherlands.

METHODS

Data of patients who sustained acute proximal femoral fractures in the period January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2019, were extracted from the National Medical Registration of the Dutch Hospital Database. The incidence rate, hospital length of stay (HLOS), health care and lost productivity costs, and years lived with disability (YLD) were calculated for age- and sex-specific groups.

RESULTS

A total of 357,073 patients were included. The overall incidence rate increased by 22% over the 20-year study period from 16.4 to 27.1/100,000 person-years (py). The age-specific incidence rate in elderly > 65 years decreased by 16% (from 649.1 to 547.6/100,000 py). The incidence rate in men aged > 90 has surpassed the incidence rate in women. HLOS decreased in all age groups, hip fracture subtypes, and sexes from a mean of 18.5 to 7.2 days. The mean health care costs, over the 2015-2019 period, were lower for men (€17,723) than for women (€23,351) and increased with age to €26,639 in women aged > 80. Annual cumulative costs reached €425M, of which 73% was spent on women.

CONCLUSION

The total incidence of hip fractures in The Netherlands has increased by 22%. Although incidence in the elderly population is decreasing and HLOS is at an all-time low, the burden of medical costs and crude numbers of proximal femoral fractures are still rising in our aging population.

Construction and evaluation of risk prediction model for kidney injury in patients treated with PD-1 inhibitors

OBJECTIVE

Construction of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of kidney injury associated with programmed cell death protein-1 (PD-1) inhibitors.

METHODS

Patients using PD-1 inhibitors from January 2018 to January 2021 in our center were retrospectively analyzed and followed up until January 2022. Kidney injury was defined as acute kidney disease and disorders (AKD). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify independent risk factors for PD-1 inhibitor associated kidney injury, and nomogram prediction models were further established.

RESULTS

A total of 447 patients were included, of whom 71 patients developed AKD. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified comorbid extrarenal immune related adverse events (irAEs), lower baseline hemoglobin (Hb) level, higher baseline serum creatinine (SCr) and direct bilirubin (DBIL) level as independent risk factors for the development of PD-1 inhibitor associated kidney injury (P < 0.05). A nomogram prediction model was established based on the above independent risk factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of the training set and validation set of the model was 0.703 (95% CI 0.628~0.777), 0.791 (95% CI 0.671~0.911), respectively, which suggested that the predictive ability of the model was acceptable. The calibration curves for both the training and validation sets hovered around the ideal line of 45 degrees, suggesting good calibration of the model. Clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that the constructed nomogram curve was far from the two polar end lines, suggesting better clinical benefit of the model.

CONCLUSION

There are many independent risk factors of PD-1 inhibitor related kidney injury. The predictive ability and calibration of the nomogram model established in this study were acceptable and had clinical utility.

Changes in incidence and mortality trend due to COVID-19 in southern Iran, from 2020 to 2021: based on Cochran-Armitage trend test

Background

In 2020, COVID-19 spread rapidly in Iran and other parts of the world. Some of the epidemiological aspects of this disease remain unknown; therefore, the present study was designed with the aim of determining the trend of incidence and mortality of COVID-19 from February 2020 to July 2021 in southern Iran.

Methods

The present study was a cross-sectional analytical study that included all people who had COVID-19 in the period from February 2020 to July 2021 and whose information had been registered in the Infectious Diseases Center of Larestan city and MCMC unit. The study area included the cities of Larestan, Evaz, and Khonj, located in the south of Fars province in southern Iran.

Results

Since the emergence of COVID-19 until July 2021, a total of 23,246 new cases of infection were reported in the southern region of Fars province. The average age of patients was 39.90±18.30 years and the range of ages varied from 1 to 103 years. The results of the Cochran-Armitage trend test showed that the trend of the disease in 2020 was completely upward. The first positive case of COVID-19 was recorded on February 27, 2020. The incidence curve in 2021 is sinusoidal, but in general, the results of the Cochran-Armitage trend test showed that the incidence of the disease increased significantly (P-trend < 0.001). Most cases were reported in July, April, and the end of March.

Conclusion

In general, the incidence rate of COVID-19 has varied sinusoidally from 2020 to mid-2021. Although the incidence of the disease increased, the number of deaths has fallen. It seems that the increase in the number of diagnostic tests and the implementation of the national COVID-19 immunization program have been effective in changing the trend of the disease.

Incidence, accuracy, and barriers of diagnosing healthcare-associated infections: a case study in southeast Iran

BACKGROUND

Healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) are a threat to patients. Accurate surveillance is required to identify and prevent HAIs. To estimate the incidence rate, report the accuracy and identify the barriers of reporting HAIs using a mixed-method study.

METHODS

In this quantitative study, we externally evaluated the incidence rate and accuracy of the routine surveillance system in one of the main hospitals by an active follow-up of patients from September to December 2021. We used in-depth interviews with 18 experts to identify the barriers of the routine surveillance system.

RESULTS

Among 404 hospitalized patients, 88 HAIs were detected. The estimated rate of HAIs was 17.1 (95% Confidence Intervals 95: 14.1, 21.1) per 1000 patient-days follow-up. However, in the same period, 116 HAIs were reported by the routine surveillance system, but the agreement between the two approaches was low (sensitivity = 61.4%, specificity = 82.6%, negative predictive value = 89.7%, and positive predictive validity = 46.5%). The minimum and maximum positive predictive values were observed in urinary tract infection (32.3%) and surgical site infection (60.9%). The main barrier of reporting HAIs was lack of cooperation in reporting HAIs by infection control link nurses and laboratory supervisors.

CONCLUSIONS

The discrepancy between the longitudinal study findings and the routine surveillance might be related to the inaccessibility of the surveillance system to clinical information of patients. In this regard, decreasing the barriers, increasing the knowledge of infection control nurses and other nurses, as well as the development of hospital information systems are necessary.

Sex differences in incidence and fatality of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome: a comparative study based on national surveillance data of China

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is a tick-borne emerging infectious disease with an increasingly global concern. Sex difference in infectious diseases is an important public health problem. A comparative study on sex differences in SFTS incidence and fatality was conducted using all laboratory-confirmed cases in mainland China during 2010-2018. Females had significantly higher average annual incidence rate (AAIR) with a RR of 1.17 (95% CI 1.11-1.22; p˂0.0001), but significantly lower-case fatality rate (CFR) with an OR of 0.73 (95% CI 0.61-0.87; p=0.001). The significant differences in AAIR and CFR were observed in age groups of 40-69 and 60-69 years, respectively (both p<0.05). There was a rising incidence and declining CFR along with epidemic years. After adjusting for age, temporal and spatial distribution, agricultural setting and onset-to-diagnosis interval, the female-to-male difference in either AAIR or CFR remained significant. The underlying biological mechanisms of the sex-based differences that the females are more prone to get the disease, but less likely for a fatal outcome deserve further investigations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Risk of acute myocardial infarction, stroke, and venous thromboembolism among patients with anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis in South Korea: A nationwide population-based study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the incidence and risk of cerebro-cardiovascular comorbidities (stroke, acute myocardial infarction, venous thromboembolism, and pulmonary embolism) in anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis using nationwide Korean population-based medical claims data.

METHODS

We identified 1905 patients with newly diagnosed anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis during 2009-2019. Incidence rates and hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated to estimate the risk of cerebro-cardiovascular comorbidities in these patients and compared to age- and sex-matched controls (1:10) using the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Most patients had microscopic polyangiitis (42.5%), followed by granulomatosis with polyangiitis (29.1%) and eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis (28.4%). The annual incidence rate of anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis in 2019 was 0.55 per 100,000 person-years. Cerebro-cardiovascular comorbidities occurred in 12.6%. Stroke was most common (64.6%), followed by venous thromboembolism (34.6%), pulmonary embolism (18.3%), and acute myocardial infarction (5.4%). Korean patients with anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis were at a significantly (2.3 times) higher overall risk for cerebro-cardiovascular comorbidities than the general population (adjusted hazard ratios, 4.5, 3.1, and 2.0 times higher for pulmonary embolism, venous thromboembolism, and stroke, respectively). These findings were similar for patients with each subtype of anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first nationwide population-based study to demonstrate a significant risk of cerebro-cardiovascular comorbidities as complications of anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis in Korean patients. Knowing these risks may enable personalized patient care and improve overall survival.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease can significantly increase the risk of chronic kidney disease in adults with type 2 diabetes

AIMS

This study is to explore the relationship between metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) among populations with type 2 diabetes through longitudinal cohort study.

METHODS

3,627 subjects who had received at least three health examinations between 2008 and 2015 were included. CKD was stated as subjects with an eGFR < 60 mL/min per 1·73 m2 or the occurrence of 2 or more proteinuria during their follow-up.

RESULTS

After median of 10·0 years follow up, 837 (23·1%) developed CKD (244·7 per 10,000 person-years; 95 % CI, 228.4 - 261·8). MAFLD ([HR] 1·46; 95 % CI 1·26-1·70, P < 0.001) acts as an important risk factor of developing CKD. After adjusting for confounding factors, this association was consistent (HR 1·30; 95 % CI 1·11-1·53, P < 0.001). In stratified analysis, subjects aged < 60 years were likely to have greater risk of MAFLD-related CKD (HR 1·58 and 1·03; 95 % CI 1·28-1·95 and 0·79-1·33, P < 0.001 in both cases, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of developing CKD in type 2 diabetes adults with MAFLD was higher, especially if they are below 60 years old. This study underscores the importance of early prevention strategies for MAFLD to reduce the occurrence of CKD in type 2 diabetes adults.

Comparing the risk of serious infections in patients with and without MS: A German claims data analysis

BACKGROUND

Research suggests that serious infections (SIs), comorbidities, and advanced disability represent key drivers of early death in people with Multiple Sclerosis (pwMS). Nevertheless, further research is warranted to better characterize and quantify the risk of SI among pwMS compared to the general population.

METHODS

Our study consisted of a retrospective analysis of claims data provided by a German statutory health insurance fund, AOK PLUS, covering 3.4 million individuals in Saxony and Thuringia from 01/01/2015-31/12/2019. A propensity score (PS) matching method was used to compare the incidence of SIs among people with and without MS. PwMS were required to have ≥1 inpatient or ≥2 confirmed outpatient diagnoses of MS (ICD-10 G35) from a neurologist from 01/01/2016-31/12/2018, while people from the general population could not have any inpatient/outpatient codes for MS during the entire study period. The index date was defined as the first observed MS diagnosis or, in the case of the non-MS cohort, a randomly assigned date within the inclusion period. For both cohorts a PS was assigned, corresponding with their probabilistic likelihood of having MS based on observable factors including patient characteristics, comorbidities, medication use and other variables. People with and without MS were matched using a 1:1 nearest neighbor strategy. An exhaustive list of ICD-10 codes was created in association with 11 main SI categories. SIs were those recorded as the main diagnosis during an inpatient stay. ICD-10 codes from the 11 main categories were sorted into smaller classification units, used to distinguish between infections. A 60-day threshold for measuring new cases was defined to account for the potential risk of re-infection. Patients were observed until the end of the study period (31/12/2019) or death. Cumulative incidence, incidence rates (IRs) and IR ratios (IRRs) were reported during follow-up and at 1-, 2- and 3-years post-index.

RESULTS

A total of 4250 and 2,098,626 patients were included in the unmatched cohorts of people with and without MS. Ultimately, one match was identified for all 4,250 pwMS, corresponding with a final population of 8,500 patients. On average, patients were 52.0/52.2 years in the matched MS/non-MS cohorts; the gender breakdown was 72% female. Overall, IRs of SIs per 100 patient years (PY) were higher in pwMS than in those without MS (1 year: 7.6 vs. 4.3; 2 years: 7.1 vs. 3.8; 3 years: 6.9 vs. 3.9). During follow-up, the most common infection types in pwMS were of a bacterial/parasitic origin (2.3 per 100 PY), followed by respiratory (2.0) and genitourinary (1.9) infections. Respiratory infections were most common in patients without MS (1.5 per 100 PY). Differences in the IRs of SIs were statistically significant (p<0.01) at each measurement window, with IRRs ranging from 1.7-1.9. PwMS had a higher risk of hospitalized genitourinary infections (IRR: 3.3-3.8) and bacterial/parasitic infections (2.0-2.3).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of SIs is much higher in pwMS, than comparators from the general population in Germany. Differences in hospitalized infection rates were largely driven by higher levels of bacterial/parasitic and genitourinary infections in the MS population.

Incidence of second primary malignancies in relapsed/refractory B-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma patients in England

BACKGROUND

Treatments for relapsed/refractory (r/r) B-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) may be associated with an increased risk of second primary malignancies (SPMs). Currently available SPM incidence benchmarks are unreliable due to small sample sizes.

METHODS

The Cancer Analysis System (CAS), a population-level cancer database in England, was used to identify patients with incident B-cell NHL diagnosed during 2013-2018 with evidence of r/r disease. Incidence rates (IRs) of SPMs after r/r disease diagnosis were calculated per 1000 person-years (PYs) and stratified by age, sex, and SPM type.

RESULTS

We identified 9444 patients with r/r B-cell NHL disease. Of those who were eligible for SPM analysis, nearly 6.0% (470/7807) developed at least one SPM after r/r disease diagnosis (IR: 44.7; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 40.9-48.9). Of note, 205 (2.6%) had a non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) SPM. IR of SPMs was the highest for patients with r/r chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic leukemia (80.0) and lowest for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) (30.9). Patients with DLBCL had the shortest overall survival after r/r disease diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

This real-world data study suggests that the IR of SPM among patients with r/r B-cell NHL is 44.7 per 1000 PY and that most SPMs diagnosed after r/r disease diagnosis are NMSCs, establishing a basis for the comparison of safety outcomes for new treatments being developed for r/r B-cell NHL.

Indirect impact of COVID-19 on the incidence rates of vector-borne diseases in Mexico

INTRODUCTION

SARS-CoV-2 infection spatial and temporal distribution overlaps with endemic areas of vector-borne diseases (VBD), whose surveillance in Mexico has substantially changed since the first COVID-19 confirmed case.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate and compare the incidence rates of VBDs before and after the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico.

METHODS

Retrospective study of VBD cases from 2014 to 2021. The incidence rates of each VBD in the period before (2014-2019) and after (2020-2021) the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico were calculated and compared.

RESULTS

Before the introduction of SARS-CoV-2, the incidence rates of VBDs were high and after the introduction of coronavirus there was a decrease in epidemiological indices; however, there was only statistically significant difference in the incidence rate of malaria (p ≤ 0.05) and other rickettsiae (p ≤ 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Some measures to reduce COVID-19 cases, such as social distancing, home confinement, reductions in public transport and working at home (home office), probably temporarily decreased the number of VBD cases; however, there may be a resurgence of VBDs in the near future.

Effectiveness of patient and staff cohorting to reduce the risk of vancomycin-resistant enterococcus (VRE) acquisition: a retrospective cohort study during a VRE outbreak in Japan

BACKGROUND

Patient and staff cohorting is part of a bundle approach in the response to multi-drug-resistant organisms, but its effectiveness is not fully clarified. This study compared the risks of acquiring vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (VREfm) at a hospital during a VREfm outbreak based on contact characteristics in order to better understand the effectiveness of cohorting.

METHODS

Exposure came from contact with patients with VREfm (infectors), including existing patients with VREfm and patients who acquired VREfm during the study period. Contact was defined as length of contact time, degree of sharing space, and care by the same nurses as those caring for infectors between January and March 2018. The outcome was VREfm acquisition as determined through monthly stool or rectal screening cultures. Incidence rates were calculated based on contact patterns, and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were compared.

FINDINGS

Among 272 inpatients (4038 patient-days), 43 patients acquired VREfm with the same or similar pulsotype. Incidence rates were 8.45 per 1000 patient-days when susceptible inpatients were on the same ward as an infector but cared for by different nurses (reference), 16.96 when susceptible inpatients were on the same ward as an infector and cared for by the same nurses [IRR 2.01, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62-10.28], and 52.91 when susceptible inpatients shared a room with an infector (IRR 6.26, 95% CI 1.61-35.40).

CONCLUSION

Compared with susceptible inpatients in a different room from infectors and not being cared for by the same nurses, the risk of VREfm acquisition could be six times higher for susceptible inpatients who are in the same room as infectors, and could be double for susceptible inpatients cared for by the same nurses as infectors.

Global estimates of diabetes-related amputations incidence in 2010-2020: A systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

This study sought to provide up-to-date pooled global estimates of diabetes-related amputation incidence from 2010 to 2020.

METHODS

Embase and Medline databases were searched for studies reporting the incidence rate (IR) of diabetes-related amputations from 2010 to 2020. IR estimates of diabetes-related amputations with associated 95% confidence interval (CI) per 100,000 individuals with diabetes were calculated.

RESULTS

23 studies were included, reporting 505,390 diabetes-related lower extremity amputations. IR of minor amputations was 139.97 (95% CI 88.18-222.16) per 100,000 individuals with diabetes, among patients with type 1 diabetes was 148.59 (95% CI 65.00-339.68) and in type 2 diabetes was 75.53 (95% CI 29.94-190.54). IR of major amputations was 94.82 (95% CI 56.62-158.80) per 100,000 individuals with diabetes, among patients with type 1 diabetes was 100.76 (95% CI 53.71-189.01) and among type 2 diabetes was 40.58 (95% CI 11.03-149.28). There were 83.84 annual amputations (95% CI 41.67-168.65) per 100,000 women with diabetes and 178.04 (95% CI 81.16-390.55) per 100,000 men.

CONCLUSIONS

Globally, annual incidence of diabetes-related amputations from 2010 to 2020 has shown to disproportionately affect men and individuals with type 1 diabetes mellitus, although its incidence is not uniform across countries.