Terminal decline from within- and between-person perspectives, accounting for incident dementia

Terminal Decline in Physical Function in Older Adults

BACKGROUND

It is currently unclear whether (and when) physical function exhibits a terminal decline phase, that is, a substantial acceleration of decline in the very last years before death.

METHODS

702 deceased adults aged 70 years and older from the Yale PEP Study provided 4 133 measurements of physical function (Short Physical Performance Battery, SPPB) up to 20 years before death. In addition, continuous gait and chair rise subtest scores (in seconds) were assessed. Generalized mixed regression models with random change points were used to estimate the onset and the steepness of terminal decline in physical function.

RESULTS

Decline accelerated in the last years of life in all 3 measures of physical function. The onset of terminal decline occurred 1 year before death for the SPPB, and at 2.5 and 2.6 years before death for chair rise and gait speed test scores, respectively. Terminal declines in physical function were 6-8 times steeper than pre-terminal declines. Relative to those whose condition leading to death was frailty, participants who died from dementia and cancer had an up to 6 months earlier and 3 months later onset of terminal decline in SPPB, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Terminal decline in physical function among older adults is comparable to the more established terminal decline phenomenon in cognition. Our results provide additional evidence of late-life rapid decline in physical function due to impending death.

Novel Functional, Health, and Genetic Determinants of Cognitive Terminal Decline: Kuakini Honolulu Heart Program/Honolulu-Asia Aging Study

To investigate interindividual differences in cognitive terminal decline and identify determinants including functional, health, and genetic risk and protective factors, data from the Honolulu Heart Program/Honolulu-Asia Aging Study, a prospective cohort study of Japanese American men, were analyzed. The sample was recruited in 1965-1968 (ages 45-68 years). Longitudinal performance of cognitive abilities and mortality status were assessed from Exam 4 (1991-1993) through June 2014. Latent class analysis revealed 2 groups: maintainers retained relatively high levels of cognitive functioning until death and decliners demonstrated significant cognitive waning several years prior to death. Maintainers were more likely to have greater education, diagnosed coronary heart disease, and presence of the apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε2 allele and FOXO3 G allele (SNP rs2802292). Decliners were more likely to be older and have prior stroke, Parkinson's disease, dementia, and greater depressive symptoms at Exam 4, and the APOE ε4 allele. Findings support terminal decline using distance to death as the basis for modeling change. Significant differences were observed between maintainers and decliners 15 years prior to death, a finding much earlier compared to the majority of previous investigations.

Terminal decline in objective and self-reported measures of motor function before death: 10 year follow-up of Whitehall II cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To examine multiple objective and self-reported measures of motor function for their associations with mortality.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

UK based Whitehall II cohort study, which recruited participants aged 35-55 years in 1985-88; motor function component was added at the 2007-09 wave.

PARTICIPANTS

6194 participants with motor function measures in 2007-09 (mean age 65.6, SD 5.9), 2012-13, and 2015-16.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

All cause mortality between 2007 and 2019 in relation to objective measures (walking speed, grip strength, and timed chair rises) and self-reported measures (physical component summary score of the SF-36 and limitations in basic and instrumental activities of daily living (ADL)) of motor function.

RESULTS

One sex specific standard deviation poorer motor function in 2007-09 (cases/total, 610/5645) was associated with an increased mortality risk of 22% (95% confidence interval 12% to 33%) for walking speed, 15% (6% to 25%) for grip strength, 14% (7% to 23%) for timed chair rises, and 17% (8% to 26%) for physical component summary score over a mean 10.6 year follow-up. Having basic/instrumental ADL limitations was associated with a 30% (7% to 58%) increased mortality risk. These associations were progressively stronger when measures were drawn from 2012-13 (mean follow-up 6.8 years) and 2015-16 (mean follow-up 3.7 years). Analysis of trajectories showed poorer motor function in decedents (n=484) than survivors (n=6194) up to 10 years before death for timed chair rises (standardised difference 0.35, 95% confidence interval 0.12 to 0.59; equivalent to a 1.2 (men) and 1.3 (women) second difference), nine years for walking speed (0.21, 0.05 to 0.36; 5.5 (men) and 5.3 (women) cm/s difference), six years for grip strength (0.10, 0.01 to 0.20; 0.9 (men) and 0.6 (women) kg difference), seven years for physical component summary score (0.15, 0.05 to 0.25; 1.2 (men) and 1.6 (women) score difference), and four years for basic/instrumental ADL limitations (prevalence difference 2%, 0% to 4%). These differences increased in the period leading to death for timed chair rises, physical component summary score, and ADL limitations.

CONCLUSION

Motor function in early old age has a robust association with mortality, with evidence of terminal decline emerging early in measures of overall motor function (timed chair rises and physical component summary score) and late in basic/instrumental ADL limitations.

The long arm of childhood intelligence on terminal decline: Evidence from the Lothian Birth Cohort 1921

The current study investigates the heterogeneity of cognitive trajectories at the end of life by assigning individuals into groups according to their cognitive trajectories prior to death. It also examines the role of childhood intelligence and education on these trajectories and group membership. Participants were drawn from the Lothian Birth Cohort of 1921 (LBC1921), a longitudinal study of individuals with a mean age of 79 years at study entry, and observed up to a maximum of five times to their early 90s. Growth mixture modeling was employed to identify groups of individuals with similar trajectories of global cognitive function measured with the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in relation to time to death, accounting for childhood intelligence, education, the time to death from study entry, and health conditions (hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease). Two distinct groups of individuals (classes) were identified: a smaller class (18% of the sample) of individuals whose MMSE scores dropped linearly with about 0.5 MMSE points per year closer to death and a larger group (82% of the sample) with stable MMSE across the study period. Only childhood intelligence was found to be associated with an increased probability of belonging to the stable class of cognitive functioning prior to death (odds ratio = 1.08, standard error = 0.02, p ≤ .001). These findings support a protective role of childhood intelligence, a marker of cognitive reserve, against the loss of cognitive function prior to death. Our results also suggest that terminal decline is not necessarily a normative process. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Education and cognitive reserve in old age

OBJECTIVE

To assess the contribution of education to cognitive reserve.

METHODS

Analyses are based on older participants in a longitudinal clinical-pathologic cohort study who had annual cognitive testing (n = 2,899) and subgroups that developed incident dementia (n = 696), died, and underwent a neuropathologic examination from which 10 neurodegenerative and cerebrovascular markers were derived (n = 752), or both (n = 405). Cognitive test scores were converted to a standard scale and averaged to yield composite measures of cognition.

RESULTS

Participants had a mean of 16.3 years of education (SD = 3.7, range 0-30). In all participants, education was associated with initial level of global cognition but not rate of cognitive change. In those who developed dementia, rate of global cognitive decline accelerated a mean of 1.8 years before the diagnosis, but education was not related to the onset or rate of accelerated decline. In the deceased, rate of global cognitive decline accelerated a mean of 3.4 years before death, but higher educational attainment was related to earlier (not later) onset of accelerated decline and unrelated to rate of acceleration. Higher education was associated with lower likelihood of gross and microscopic cerebral infarcts but not with other neuropathologic markers. Education was not related to global cognitive change not attributable to neuropathologic burden and did not decrease the association of higher neuropathologic burden with more rapid cognitive decline.

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the contribution of education to cognitive reserve is limited to its association with level of cognitive function before old age.

Terminal decline of episodic memory and perceptual speed in a biracial population

We compared trajectories of terminal cognitive decline in older Black (n = 3372) and White (n = 1756) persons from a defined population who completed tests of episodic memory and perceptual speed at 3-year intervals for up to 18 years. During a mean of 9.9 years of observation, 1608 Black persons and 902 White persons died. Preterminal decline of episodic memory did not differ by race. Terminal episodic memory decline began earlier in Black persons (mean of 4.3 years before death) than in White persons (mean = 3.9 years) and progressed more slowly. By contrast, terminal decline of perceptual speed began earlier in White persons (mean = 5.0 years) than in Black persons (mean = 4.5 years). Rate of perceptual speed decline was more rapid in White persons than in Black persons in both the preterminal and terminal periods. The results indicate that terminal cognitive decline occurs in Black persons but suggest that the rate of cognitive decline during the terminal period is less rapid in Black persons than in White persons.

Visuospatial Reasoning Trajectories and Death in a Study of the Oldest Old: A Formal Evaluation of Their Association

OBJECTIVES

To model trajectories of visuospatial reasoning measured using Kohs Block Design test under realistic missing data assumptions and evaluate their association with hazard of death.

METHODS

A joint longitudinal-survival model was used to estimate trajectories of visuospatial reasoning under a missing not at random assumption of participants from the Origins of Variance in the Old-Old: Octogenarian Twins study. Sensitivity analyses to missing data assumptions were conducted.

RESULTS

Visuospatial reasoning declined at constant rate. Baseline age, dementia status, education, and history of stroke were associated with visuospatial reasoning performance, but only dementia was associated with its rate of decline. Importantly, our results demonstrated an association between poorer visuospatial reasoning and increased hazard of death. Baseline age and sex were associated with risk of death.

DISCUSSION

We confirmed an association between visuospatial reasoning and death under plausible missing data assumptions.

Decline in Memory, Visuospatial Ability, and Crystalized Cognitive Abilities in Older Adults: Normative Aging or Terminal Decline?

The aim of this study is to explore the pattern of change in multiple measures of cognitive abilities in a sample of oldest-old adults, comparing two different time metrics (chronological age and time to death) and therefore examining both underlying conceptual assumptions (age-related change and terminal decline). Moreover, the association with individual characteristics as sex, education, and dementia diagnosis was also examined. Measures of cognitive status (Mini-Mental State Examination and the Swedish Clock Test) and tests of crystallized (knowledge and synonyms), memory (verbal memory, nonverbal long-term memory, recognition and correspondence, and short-term memory), and visuospatial ability were included. The sample consisted of 671 older Swedish adult participants of the OCTO Twin Study. Linear mixed models with random coefficients were used to analyse change patterns and BIC indexes were used to compare models. Results showed that the time to death model was the best option in analyses of change in all the cognitive measures considered (except for the Information Test). A significant cognitive decline over time was found for all variables. Individuals diagnosed with dementia had lower scores at the study entrance and a faster decline. More educated individuals performed better in all the measures of cognition at study entry than those with poorer education, but no differences were found in the rate of change. Differences were found in age, sex, or time to death at baseline across the different measures. These results support the terminal decline hypothesis when compared to models assuming that cognitive changes are driven by normative aging processes.

Association of Delirium With Cognitive Decline in Late Life: A Neuropathologic Study of 3 Population-Based Cohort Studies

IMPORTANCE

Delirium is associated with accelerated cognitive decline. The pathologic substrates of this association are not yet known, that is, whether they are the same as those associated with dementia, are independent, or are interrelated.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether the accelerated cognitive decline observed after delirium is independent of the pathologic processes of classic dementia.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Harmonized data from 987 individual brain donors from 3 observational cohort studies with population-based sampling (Vantaa 85+, Cambridge City Over-75s Cohort, Cognitive Function and Ageing Study) performed from January 1, 1985, through December 31, 2011, with a median follow-up of 5.2 years until death, were used in this study. Neuropathologic assessments were performed with investigators masked to clinical data. Data analysis was performed from January 1, 2012, through December 31, 2013. Clinical characteristics of brain donors were not different from the rest of the cohort. Outcome ascertainment was complete given that the participants were brain donors.

EXPOSURES

Delirium (never vs ever) and pathologic burden of neurofibrillary tangles, amyloid plaques, vascular lesions, and Lewy bodies. Effects modeled using random-effects linear regression and interactions between delirium and pathologic burden were assessed.

OUTCOMES

Change in Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores during the 6 years before death.

RESULTS

There were 987 participants (290 from Vantaa 85+, 241 from the Cambridge City Over-75s Cohort, and 456 from the Cognitive Function and Ageing Study) with neuropathologic data; mean (SD) age at death was 90 (6.4) years, including 682 women (69%). The mean MMSE score 6 years before death was 24.7 points. The 279 individuals with delirium (75% women) had worse initial scores (-2.8 points; 95% CI, -4.5 to -1.0; P < .001). Cognitive decline attributable to delirium was -0.37 MMSE points per year (95% CI, -0.60 to -0.13; P < .001). Decline attributable to the pathologic processes of dementia was -0.39 MMSE points per year (95% CI, -0.57 to -0.22; P < .001). However, the combination of delirium and the pathologic processes of dementia resulted in the greatest decline, in which the interaction contributed an additional -0.16 MMSE points per year (95% CI, -0.29 to -0.03; P = .01). The multiplicative nature of these variables resulted in individuals with delirium and the pathologic processes of dementia declining 0.72 MMSE points per year faster than age-, sex-, and educational level-matched controls.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Delirium in the presence of the pathologic processes of dementia is associated with accelerated cognitive decline beyond that expected for delirium or the pathologic process itself. These findings suggest that additional unmeasured pathologic processes specifically relate to delirium. Age-related cognitive decline has many contributors, and these findings at the population level support a role for delirium acting independently and multiplicatively to the pathologic processes of classic dementia.

An Evaluation of the Longitudinal, Bidirectional Associations Between Gait Speed and Cognition in Older Women and Men

BACKGROUND

Few cohort studies have examined longitudinal associations between age-related changes in cognition and physical performance. Further, whether these associations differ for men versus women or can be attributed to differences in physical activity (PA) is unknown.

METHODS

Participants were 2,876 initially well-functioning community-dwelling older adults (aged 70-79 years at baseline; 52% female; 39% black) studied over a 9-year period. Usual gait speed, self-reported PA, and two cognitive measures-Digit Symbol Substitution Test (DSST) and Mini-Modified Mental State examination (3MS)-were assessed years 0 (ie, baseline), 4, and 9.

RESULTS

Early decline between years 0 and 4 in gait speed predicted later decline between years 4 and 9 in performance on the 3MS (β = 0.10, p = .004) and on the DSST (β = 0.16, p < .001). In contrast, the associations between early decline in cognition and later decline in gait speed were weaker and were non-significant after correcting for multiple comparisons (β = 0.08, p = .019 for 3MS and β = .06, p = .051 for DSST). All associations were similar for women and men and were unaltered when accounting for PA levels.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate declining gait speed as a precursor to declining cognitive functioning, and suggest a weaker reciprocal process among older women and men.

The role of cognitive reserve on terminal decline: a cross-cohort analysis from two European studies: OCTO-Twin, Sweden, and Newcastle 85+, UK

OBJECTIVE

Cognitive performance shows a marked deterioration in close proximity to death, as postulated by the terminal decline hypothesis. The effect of education on the rate of terminal decline in the oldest people (i.e. persons 85+ years) has been controversial and not entirely understood. In the current study, we investigated the rate of decline prior to death with a special focus on the role of education and socioeconomic position, in two European longitudinal studies of ageing: the Origins of Variance in the Old-Old: Octogenarian Twins (OCTO-Twin) and the Newcastle 85+ study.

METHODS

A process-based approach was used in which individuals' cognitive scores were aligned according to distance to death. In a coordinated analysis, multilevel models were employed to examine associations between different markers of cognitive reserve (education and socioeconomic position) and terminal decline using the mini-mental state examination (MMSE), controlling for age at baseline, sex, dementia incidence and time to death from the study entry to the time of death within each cohort.

RESULTS

The current findings suggest that education was positively associated with higher MMSE scores prior to death in the OCTO-Twin, but not in the Newcastle 85+ study, independent of socioeconomic position and other factors such as baseline age, sex and time to death from the study entry. However, education was not associated with the rate of terminal decline in both of these studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results offer only partial support to the cognitive reserve hypothesis and cognitive performance prior to death.

I forgot when I lost my grip-strong associations between cognition and grip strength in level of performance and change across time in relation to impending death

An association between level of cognitive function and grip strength is well established, whereas evidence for longitudinal associations of change in the 2 functions is still unclear. We examined associations between cognition and grip strength in levels of performance and in longitudinal change in late life in a population-based sample, aged ≥80 years at baseline, followed until death. The sample consisted of 449 nondemented individuals drawn from the OCTO-Twin Study. A test battery assessing 6 cognitive domains and grip strength was administered at 5 occasions with measurements intervals of 2 years. We fitted time to death bivariate growth curve models, adjusted for age, education, and sex which resulted in associations between grip strength and cognition in both levels of performance (across all cognitive domains) and rates of change (in 4 of 6 domains). These results show that cognition and grip strength change conjointly in later life and that the association between cognition and grip strength is stronger before death than earlier in life.

Educational inequalities in aging-related declines in fluid cognition and the onset of cognitive pathology

BACKGROUND

Education has been robustly associated with cognitive reserve and dementia, but not with the rate of cognitive aging, resulting in some confusion about the mechanisms of cognitive aging. This study uses longitudinal data to differentiate between trajectories indicative of healthy versus pathological cognitive aging.

METHODS

Participants included 9,401 Health and Retirement Study respondents aged 55 and older who completed cognitive testing regularly over 17.3 years until most recently in 2012. Individual-specific random change-point modeling was used to identify age of incident pathological decline; acceleration is interpreted as indicating likely onset of pathological decline when it is significant and negative.

RESULTS

These methods detect incident dementia diagnoses with specificity/sensitivity of 89.3%/44.3%, 5.6 years prior to diagnosis. Each year of education was associated with 0.09 (95% CI, 0.087-0.096; P<0.001) standard deviation higher baseline cognition and delayed onset of cognitive pathology (HR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.96-0.99; P=0.006).

CONCLUSION

Longitudinal random change-point modeling was able to reliably identify incident dementia. Accounting for incident cognitive pathology, we find that education predicts cognitive capability and delayed onset pathological declines.

The utility of estimating population-level trajectories of terminal wellbeing decline within a growth mixture modelling framework

PURPOSE

Mortality-related decline has been identified across multiple domains of human functioning, including mental health and wellbeing. The current study utilised a growth mixture modelling framework to establish whether a single population-level trajectory best describes mortality-related changes in both wellbeing and mental health, or whether subpopulations report quite different mortality-related changes.

METHODS

Participants were older-aged (M = 69.59 years; SD = 8.08 years) deceased females (N = 1,862) from the dynamic analyses to optimise ageing (DYNOPTA) project. Growth mixture models analysed participants' responses on measures of mental health and wellbeing for up to 16 years from death.

RESULTS

Multi-level models confirmed overall terminal decline and terminal drop in both mental health and wellbeing. However, modelling data from the same participants within a latent class growth mixture framework indicated that most participants reported stability in mental health (90.3 %) and wellbeing (89.0 %) in the years preceding death.

CONCLUSIONS

Whilst confirming other population-level analyses which support terminal decline and drop hypotheses in both mental health and wellbeing, we subsequently identified that most of this effect is driven by a small, but significant minority of the population. Instead, most individuals report stable levels of mental health and wellbeing in the years preceding death.

Gender Differences in Cognitive Performance in Old Age

Objective: To examine gender differences in level and change of cognitive performance in the oldest old while accounting for gender differences in longevity. Method: 574 individuals, aged 80 years and older, from the OCTO Twin Study. Five cognitive domains were administered at five occasions at 2-year intervals. Results: There were no cognitive differences between men and women, with the exception that men showed a steeper rate of decline in semantic memory. This effect was driven by men who had developed dementia and declined at a faster rate than women. Conclusion: Our results support previous findings showing minor to nonexisting gender differences in cognition among nondemented individuals in very old age when taking gender differences in longevity into account.

Education associated with a delayed onset of terminal decline

Background: the terminal decline hypothesis suggests an acceleration in the rate of loss of cognitive function before death. Evidence about the association of educational attainment and the onset of terminal decline is scarce.

Objective: to investigate the association of education with the onset of terminal decline in global cognitive function measured by Mini Mental State Exam (MMSE) scores.

Subjects: deceased participants of the Cambridge City over 75 Cohort Study who were interviewed at about 2, 7, 9, 13, 17 and 21 years after baseline.

Methods: regular and Tobit random change point growth models were fitted to MMSE scores to identify the onset of terminal decline and assess the effect of education on this onset.

Results: people who left school at an older age had a delayed onset of terminal decline. Thus better educated individuals experience a slightly shorter period of faster decline before death.

Conclusion: an important finding emerging from our work is that education does appear to delay the onset of terminal decline, although only by a limited amount.

Investigating terminal decline: results from a UK population-based study of aging

The terminal decline hypothesis states that in the proximity of death, an individual's decline in cognitive abilities accelerates. We aimed at estimating the onset of faster rate of decline in global cognition using Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores from participants of the Cambridge City over 75 Cohort Study (CC75C), a U.K. population-based longitudinal study of aging where almost all participants have died. The random change point model fitted to MMSE scores structured as a function of distance to death allowed us to identify a potentially different onset of change in rate of decline before death for each individual in the sample. Differences in rate of change before and after the onset of change in rate of decline by sociodemographic variables were investigated. On average, the onset of a faster rate of change occurred about 7.7 years before death and varied across individuals. Our results show that most individuals experience a period of slight decline followed by a much sharper decline. Education, age at death, and cognitive impairment at study entry were identified as modifiers of rate of change before and after change in rate of decline. Gender differences were found in rate of decline in the final stages of life. Our study suggests that terminal decline is a heterogeneous process, with its onset varying between individuals.

The dynamic relationship between physical function and cognition in longitudinal aging cohorts

On average, older people remember less and walk more slowly than do younger persons. Some researchers argue that this is due in part to a common biologic process underlying age-related declines in both physical and cognitive functioning. Only recently have longitudinal data become available for analyzing this claim. We conducted a systematic review of English-language research published between 2000 and 2011 to evaluate the relations between rates of change in physical and cognitive functioning in older cohorts. Physical functioning was assessed using objective measures: walking speed, grip strength, chair rise time, flamingo stand time, and summary measures of physical functioning. Cognition was measured using mental state examinations, fluid cognition, and diagnosis of impairment. Results depended on measurement type: Change in grip strength was more strongly correlated with mental state, while change in walking speed was more strongly correlated with change in fluid cognition. Examining physical and cognitive functioning can help clinicians and researchers to better identify individuals and groups that are aging differently and at different rates. In future research, investigators should consider the importance of identifying different patterns and rates of decline, examine relations between more diverse types of measures, and analyze the order in which age-related declines occur.

An evaluation of analytical approaches for understanding change in cognition in the context of aging and health

OBJECTIVES

In this article, we discuss the importance of studying the relationship between health and cognitive function, and some of the methods with which this relationship has been studied.

METHODS

We consider the challenges involved, in particular operationalization of the health construct and causal inference in the context of observational data. We contrast the approaches taken, and review the questions addressed: whether health and cognition are associated, whether changes in health are associated with changes in cognition, and the degree of interdependency among their respective trajectories.

RESULTS

A variety of approaches for understanding the association between cognition and health in aging individuals have been used. Much of the literature on cognitive change and health has relied on methods that are based at least in part on the reorganization of between-person differences (e.g., cross-lag analysis) rather than relying more fully on analysis of within-person change and joint analysis of individual differences in within-person change in cognition and health.

DISCUSSION

We make the case for focusing on the interdependency between within-person changes in health and cognition and suggest methods that would support this.