Effect of GnRH agonist down-regulation combined with hormone replacement treatment on reproductive outcomes of frozen blastocyst transfer cycles in women of different ages

Objective

To investigate the effect of GnRH agonist (GnRH-a) down-regulation prior to hormone replacement treatment (HRT) to prepare the endometrium in frozen embryo transfer (FET) cycles in women of different ages.

Methods

This was a retrospective study, and after excluding patients with adenomyosis, endometriosis, severe endometrial adhesions, polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), and repeated embryo implantation failures, a total of 4,091 HRT cycles were collected. Patients were divided into group A (<35 years old) and group B (≥35 years old), and each group was further divided into HRT and GnRHa-HRT groups. The clinical outcomes were compared between groups.

Results

There was no statistically significant difference in clinical outcomes between the HRT and GnRHa-HRT groups among women aged <35 years. In women of advanced age, higher rates of clinical pregnancy and live birth were seen in the GnRHa-HRT group. Logistic regression analysis showed that female age and number of embryos transferred influenced the live birth rate in FET cycles, and in women aged ≥ 35 years, the use of GnRH-a down-regulation prior to HRT improved pregnancy outcomes.

Conclusions

In elderly woman without adenomyosis, endometriosis, PCOS, severe uterine adhesions, and RIF, hormone replacement treatment with GnRH agonist for pituitary suppression can improve the live birth rate of FET cycles.

Predictors of success after in vitro fertilization

The last few decades have witnessed a rise in the global uptake of in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment. To ensure optimal use of this technology, it is important for patients and clinicians to have access to tools that can provide accurate estimates of treatment success and understand the contribution of key clinical and laboratory parameters that influence the chance of conception after IVF treatment. The focus of this review was to identify key predictors of IVF treatment success and assess their impact in terms of live birth rates. We have identified 11 predictors that consistently feature in currently available prediction models, including age, duration of infertility, ethnicity, body mass index, antral follicle count, previous pregnancy history, cause of infertility, sperm parameters, number of oocytes collected, morphology of transferred embryos, and day of embryo transfer.

Simultaneous transfer of one good-quality and one poor-quality cleavage stage embryo does not improve pregnancy outcomes

Embryo quality and quantity are key factors that determine the success of IVF-ET. Yet it is still unclear if, for those patients with only one good-quality embryo in an IVF cycle, the inclusion of a poor-quality embryo increases the procedure's success rate. This is a common question for both clinicians and patients in determining their course of treatment. The purpose of this work was to answer this intriguing question in the context of prognosis of patients undergoing fresh cycles with only one good-quality and more than one poor-quality cleavage-stage embryos. To control for confounding effects, we only included patients at similar age, body mass index (BMI), level of basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) and endometrial thickness from January 2015 to June 2021. A propensity score-matched analysis was performed to extract the matched pairs. Then we evaluated pregnancy outcome, including the rate of clinical pregnancy, live birth, embryo implantation, early miscarriage, and ectopic pregnancy. We found that the clinical pregnancy rate (34.8 vs. 38.0%, p = 0.553), live birth rate (27.1 vs. 29.9%, p = 0.598), early miscarriage rate (18.1 vs. 9.5%, p = 0.171) and ectopic pregnancy rate (1.3 vs. 1.2%, p = 1.000) did not significantly differ between those two groups, notwithstanding significant difference of the implantation rate (34.8 vs. 21.3%, p <0.001). Our work indicates that, for prognosis patients at approximately 34 years old with only one good-quality embryo, having additional poor-quality embryos does not seem to help to improve ART success rates per intended embryo transfer. In conclusion, we found that simultaneous transfer of one good-quality and one poor-quality cleavage stage embryo does not improve pregnancy outcomes.

Twinning in ART: Single embryo transfer policy

It is more than thirty years that perinatologists and healthcare personnel aim to reduce the morbidity associated with multiple pregnancy. In many cases, these complications stem from pregnancies achieved through artificial reproductive technologies (ART). Although dramatic measures have been taken to control those risks by increasing the proportion of single embryo transfers, the multiple pregnancy rate still remains relatively high among patient conceived through ART, carrying risks to both mothers and newborns, and is coupled with the related economic burden associated with prematurity. The aim of this review is to provide the current evidence regarding single embryo transfer to assist decision-makers and to promote patient knowledge toward an elective policy to reduce the risk of twinning. Single embryo transfer may aid in the further reduction of multiple pregnancy and, in most cases, will maintain patient autonomy and right of choice.

Comparisons of benefits and risks of single embryo transfer versus double embryo transfer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Evidence referring to the trade-offs between the benefits and risks of single embryo transfer (SET) versus double embryo transfer (DET) following assisted reproduction technology are insufficient, especially for those women with a defined embryo quality or advanced age.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted according to PRISMA guidelines. PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched based on established search strategy from inception through February 2021. Pre-specified primary outcomes were live birth rate (LBR) and multiple pregnancy rate (MPR). Odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were pooled by a random-effects model using R version 4.1.0.

RESULTS

Eighty-five studies (14 randomized controlled trials and 71 observational studies) were eligible. Compared with DET, SET decreased the probability of a live birth (OR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.71-0.85, P < 0.001, n = 62), and lowered the rate of multiple pregnancy (0.05, 0.04-0.06, P < 0.001, n = 45). In the sub-analyses of age stratification, both the differences of LBR (0.87, 0.54-1.40, P = 0.565, n = 4) and MPR (0.34, 0.06-2.03, P = 0.236, n = 3) between SET and DET groups became insignificant in patients aged ≥40 years. No significant difference in LBR for single GQE versus two embryos of mixed quality [GQE + PQE (non-good quality embryo)] (0.99, 0.77-1.27, P = 0.915, n = 8), nor any difference of MPR in single PQE versus two PQEs (0.23, 0.04-1.49, P = 0.123, n = 6). Moreover, women who conceived through SET were associated with lower risks of poor outcomes, including cesarean section (0.64, 0.43-0.94), antepartum haemorrhage (0.35, 0.15-0.82), preterm birth (0.25, 0.21-0.30), low birth weight (0.20, 0.16-0.25), Apgar1 < 7 rate (0.12, 0.02-0.93) or neonatal intensive care unit admission (0.30, 0.14-0.66) than those following DET.

CONCLUSIONS

In women aged < 40 years or if any GQE is available, SET should be incorporated into clinical practice. While in the absence of GQEs, DET may be preferable. However, for elderly women aged ≥40 years, current evidence is not enough to recommend an appropriate number of embryo transfer. The findings need to be further confirmed.

Effectiveness and Safety of Two Consecutive Cycles of Single Embryo Transfer Compared With One Cycle of Double Embryo Transfer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVE

To date, evidence regarding the effectiveness and safety of two consecutive cycles of single embryo transfer (2SETs) compared with one cycle of double embryo transfer (DET) has been inadequate, particularly considering infertile women with different prognostic factors. This study aimed to comprehensively summarize the evidence by comparing 2SETs with DET.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library databases, ClinicalTrails.gov, and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform were searched up to March 22, 2022. Peer-reviewed, English-language randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies (OS) comparing the outcomes of 2SETs with DET in infertile women with their own oocytes and embryos were included. Two authors independently conducted study selection, data extraction, and bias assessment. The Mantel-Haenszel random-effects model was used for pooling RCTs, and a Bayesian design-adjusted model was conducted to synthesize the results from both RCTs and OS.

MAIN RESULTS

Twelve studies were finally included. Compared with the DET, 2SETs were associated with a similar cumulative live birth rate (LBR; 48.24% vs. 48.91%; OR, 0.97; 95% credible interval (CrI), 0.89-1.13, τ^{2 =} 0.1796; four RCTs and six observational studies; 197,968 women) and a notable lower cumulative multiple birth rate (MBR; 0.87% vs. 17.72%; OR, 0.05; 95% CrI, 0.02-0.10, τ^{2 =} 0.1036; four RCTs and five observational studies; 197,804 women). Subgroup analyses revealed a significant increase in cumulative LBR (OR, 1.33; 95% CrI, 1.29-1.38, τ^{2 =} 0) after two consecutive cycles of single blastocyst transfer compared with one cycle of double blastocyst transfer. Moreover, a lower risk of cesarean section, antepartum hemorrhage, preterm birth, low birth weight, and neonatal intensive care unit admission but a higher gestational age at birth and birth weight were found in the 2SETs group.

CONCLUSION

Compared to the DET strategy, 2SETs result in a similar LBR while simultaneously reducing the MBR and improving maternal and neonatal adverse outcomes. The 2SETs strategy appears to be especially beneficial for women aged ≤35 years and for blastocyst transfers.

Individualized embryo selection strategy developed by stacking machine learning model for better in vitro fertilization outcomes: an application study

BACKGROUND

To minimize the rate of in vitro fertilization (IVF)- associated multiple-embryo gestation, significant efforts have been made. Previous studies related to machine learning in IVF mainly focused on selecting the top-quality embryos to improve outcomes, however, in patients with sub-optimal prognosis or with medium- or inferior-quality embryos, the selection between SET and DET could be perplexing.

METHODS

This was an application study including 9211 patients with 10,076 embryos treated during 2016 to 2018, in Tongji Hospital, Wuhan, China. A hierarchical model was established using the machine learning system XGBoost, to learn embryo implantation potential and the impact of double embryos transfer (DET) simultaneously. The performance of the model was evaluated with the AUC of the ROC curve. Multiple regression analyses were also conducted on the 19 selected features to demonstrate the differences between feature importance for prediction and statistical relationship with outcomes.

RESULTS

For a single embryo transfer (SET) pregnancy, the following variables remained significant: age, attempts at IVF, estradiol level on hCG day, and endometrial thickness. For DET pregnancy, age, attempts at IVF, endometrial thickness, and the newly added P1 + P2 remained significant. For DET twin risk, age, attempts at IVF, 2PN/ MII, and P1 × P2 remained significant. The algorithm was repeated 30 times, and averaged AUC of 0.7945, 0.8385, and 0.7229 were achieved for SET pregnancy, DET pregnancy, and DET twin risk, respectively. The trend of predictive and observed rates both in pregnancy and twin risk was basically identical. XGBoost outperformed the other two algorithms: logistic regression and classification and regression tree.

CONCLUSION

Artificial intelligence based on determinant-weighting analysis could offer an individualized embryo selection strategy for any given patient, and predict clinical pregnancy rate and twin risk, therefore optimizing clinical outcomes.

Developments in IVF warrant the adoption of new performance indicators for ART clinics, but do not justify the abandonment of patient-centred measures

Recent advances in embryo freezing technology together with growing concerns over multiple births have shifted the paradigm of appropriate IVF. This has led to the adoption of new performance indicators for ART clinics by national reporting schemes, such as those curated by the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology (SART) and the Human Fertilization and Embryology Authority (HFEA). Using these organizations as case studies, we review several outcome measures from a statistical perspective. We describe several denominators that are used to calculate live birth rates. These include cumulative birth rates calculated from all fresh and frozen transfer procedures arising from a particular egg collection or cycle initiation, and live birth rates calculated per embryo transferred. Using data from both schemes, we argue that all cycles should be included in the denominator, regardless of whether or not egg collection and fertilization were successful. Excluding cancelled cycles reduces the impact of confounding due to patient characteristics but also removes policy and performance differences which we argue represent relevant sources of variation. It may be misleading to present prospective patients with essentially hypothetical measures of performance predicated on parity of ovarian stimulation and transfer policies. Although live birth per embryo has the advantage of encouraging single embryo transfer, we argue that it is prone to misinterpretation. This is because the likelihood of live birth is not proportional to the number of embryos transferred. We conclude that it is not possible to present a single measure that encompasses both effectiveness and safety. Instead, we propose that a set of clear, relevant outcome indicators is necessary to enable subfertile patients to make informed choices regarding whether and where to be treated.

Does the transfer of a poor quality embryo together with a good quality embryo affect the In Vitro Fertilization (IVF) outcome?

Background

IVF cycles which result in only one good quality embryo, and a second poor quality embryo present a dilemma when the decision involves transferring two embryos. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether a poor quality embryo has a negative effect on a good quality embryo when transferred along with a good quality embryo.

Methods

We retrospectively evaluated in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles involving single embryo transfers (SET) and double embryo transfers (DET). Embryo quality was divided into poor “P” and good “G” quality. The main outcome measures were: live birth, implantation rate, miscarriage rate, clinical pregnancy rate and multiple pregnancy ratio.

Results

Six hundred three women were included. The study group consisted of 180 (29.9%) patients who had a double embryo transfer (DET) with one poor quality embryo and one good quality embryo (P + G). Control 1 group included 303 (50.2%) patients who had DET with two good quality embryos (G + G), and control 2 group consisted of 120 (19.9%) patients who had a single embryo transfer (SET) with one good quality embryo (G). Live birth rates were not significantly different when compared between study groups: 30.8% in the SET group (G), 27.2% in the (G + P) group and 33.7% in the (G + G) group. The SET group had the highest implantation rate (33.9%) compared to the DET groups (21.8% (G + P), 25.4% (G + G)) (P =0.022). The clinical pregnancy rate was 33.3% in the SET group (G), 33.3% in the (G + P) group, and 39.3% in the (G + G) group (P =0.39). The miscarriage rate was comparable in all groups.

Conclusion

A poor quality embryo does not negatively affect a good quality embryo, when transferred together in a double embryo transfer.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13048-016-0297-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Risks of spontaneously and IVF-conceived singleton and twin pregnancies differ, requiring reassessment of statistical premises favoring elective single embryo transfer (eSET)

A published review of the literature by Dutch investigators in 2004 suggested significant outcome differences between spontaneously - and in vitro fertilization (IVF) - conceived singleton and twin pregnancies. Here we review whether later studies between 2004-2015 confirmed these findings. Though methodologies of here reviewed studies varied, and all were retrospective, they overall confirmed results of the 2004 review, and supported significant outcome variances between spontaneously- and IVF-conceived pregnancies: IVF singletons demonstrate significantly poorer and IVF twins significantly better perinatal outcomes than spontaneously conceived singletons and twins, with differences stable over time, and with overall obstetrical outcomes significantly improved. Exaggerations of severe IVF twin risks are likely in the 50 % range, while exaggerations of milder perinatal risks are approximately in 25 % range. Though elective single embryo transfers (eSET) have been confirmed to reduce pregnancy chances, they are, nevertheless, increasingly utilized. eSET, equally unquestionably, however, reduces twin pregnancies. Because twin pregnancies have been alleged to increase outcome risks in comparison to singleton pregnancies, here reported findings should affect the ongoing discussion whether increased twin risks are factual. With no risk excess, eSET significantly reduces IVF pregnancy chances without compensatory benefits and, therefore, is not advisable in IVF, unless patients do not wish to conceive twins or have medical contraindications to conceiving twins.

Factors affecting occurrence of twin pregnancy after double embryo transfer on day 3

AIM

The aim of this study was to identify the risk factors of twin gestation in fresh double day-3 embryo transfer cycles.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Out of a total of 386 cycles of fresh double embryo transfers on day 3 between 2006 and 2013 at a single center, 72 women with single intrauterine gestational sac (GS) (single-GS group) and 32 women with double GS (double-GS group) were identified. The patients' clinical characteristics and laboratory results were extracted from electronic medical records and were compared.

RESULTS

The double-GS group had a significantly younger age (P = 0.012), and higher bodyweight (P = 0.033) compared with the single-GS group. The total number of blastomeres (P = 0.013) and cumulative embryo score (P = 0.012) were higher in the double-GS group. By receiver-operator curve analysis, maternal age ≤ 35 years, maternal bodyweight > 60 kg, total number of blastomeres > 14, and cumulative embryo score > 49 were the cut-off values to predict twin pregnancy. Among eight women with all four risk factors, the twin pregnancy rate was 87.5%. There was no twin pregnancy among seven women with no risk factors.

CONCLUSION

Younger age, higher bodyweight, and better embryo quality are all associated with a higher incidence of twin pregnancy after double embryo transfer on day 3. Single embryo transfer might be advisable for couples with risk factors for twin pregnancy.

The effect of single embryo transfer on perinatal outcomes in Japan

OBJECTIVE

In 2007 and 2008, the Japan Society for Reproductive Medicine and the Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology issued a recommendation for single embryo transfer (SET). Thereafter, SET was implemented in 73% of in vitro fertilization (IVF) cases in Japan. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of compliance with the SET recommendation on perinatal outcomes.

METHODS

An electronic audit of the perinatal database of the Japanese Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology was conducted from 2001 through 2010. The database comprised data of 610,726 women. Totally, 20,923 women conceived through IVF. To compare perinatal outcomes, these women were categorized into two study groups depending on whether they conceived before (2004-2005, n=3,865) or after (2009-2010, n=6,842) the SET recommendation statement was issued.

RESULTS

The proportion of women who conceived through IVF increased from 1.3% in 2001 to 4.8% in 2010. Compliance with the SET recommendation led to a decrease in the incidence of twin pregnancies (33.9% versus 13%, p<0.01), incidence of preterm delivery (odds ratio [OR]: 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.50-0.59), low birth weight (OR: 0.42, 95% CI: 0.39-0.45), and neonatal intensive care unit admission (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.65-0.76), but an increase in the incidence of monochorionic twins (1.6% versus 2.5%, p<0.01).

CONCLUSION

Compliance with the SET recommendation improved perinatal outcomes by reducing the incidence of twin pregnancies.

Is there a difference in cognitive development between preschool singletons and twins born after intracytoplasmic sperm injection or in vitro fertilization?

OBJECTIVE

To explore whether there exist differences in cognitive development between singletons and twins born after in vitro fertilization (IVF) or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI).

METHODS

A total of 566 children were recruited for the study, including 388 children (singletons, n=175; twins, n=213) born after IVF and 178 children (singletons, n=87; twins, n=91) born after ICSI. The cognitive development was assessed using the Chinese-Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children (C-WISC).

RESULTS

For all pre-term offspring, all the intelligence quotient (IQ) items between singletons and twins showed no significant differences no matter if they were born after IVF or ICSI. There was a significant difference in the cognitive development of IVF-conceived full-term singletons and twins. The twins born after IVF obtained significantly lower scores than the singletons in verbal IQ (containing information, picture & vocabulary, arithmetic, picture completion, comprehension, and language), performance IQ (containing maze, visual analysis, object assembly, and performance), and full scale IQ (P<0.05). The cognitive development of full-term singletons and twins born after ICSI did not show any significant differences. There was no significant difference between the parents of the singletons and twins in their characteristics where data were collected, including the age of the mothers, the current employment status, the educational backgrounds, and areas of residence. There were also no consistent differences in the duration of pregnancy, sex composition of the children, age, and height between singletons and twins at the time of our study although there existed significant differences between the two groups in the sex composition of the full-term children born after ICSI (P<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to the full-term singletons born after IVF, the full-term twins have lower cognitive development. The cognitive development of full-term singletons and twins born after ICSI did not show any significant differences. For all pre-term offspring, singletons and twins born after IVF or ICSI, the results of the cognitive development showed no significant differences.

Economic evaluation of highly purified human menopausal gonadotropin versus recombinant human follicle-stimulating hormone in fresh and frozen in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm-injection cycles in Sweden

Gonadotropin-releasing hormone-analog type, fertilization method, and number of embryos available for cryopreservation should be incorporated into economic evaluations of highly purified human menopausal gonadotropin (HP-hMG) and recombinant human follicle-stimulating hormone (r-hFSH), as they may affect treatment costs. We searched for randomized trials and meta-analyses comparing HP-hMG and r-hFSH. Meta-analysis showed no significant difference in live births (odds ratio 0.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.66–1.01), but a greater number of oocytes with r-hFSH (mean difference [MD] 1.96, 95% CI 1.02–2.90). Using a cost-minimization model for Sweden, accounting for embryo availability, survival following thawing, and patient dropout, we simulated patients individually for up to three cycles. R-hFSH was found to be cost-saving, at 2,767 kr (95% CI 1,580–4,057) per patient (€315 or $411); baseline savings were 6.43% of the total HP-hMG cost. In fresh cycles only, the savings for r-hFSH were 1,752 kr (95% CI 48–3,658) per patient (€200 or $260). In univariate sensitivity analyses, savings were obtained until the price of r-hFSH increased by 30% or the dosage of HP-hMG decreased by 38%–62% of baseline value. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, r-hFSH was cost-saving in 100% of the simulated cohort per patient and in 85% per live birth; the respective percentages for fresh cycles only were 97.3% and 73.1%. In conclusion, a greater number of oocytes with r-hFSH allows for more frozen embryo transfers, thereby reducing overall treatment cost.

Predictors of twin live birth following cryopreserved double embryo transfer on day 3

PURPOSE

To determine embryo and cycle-specific parameters associated with twin live birth in day 3 cryopreserved double embryo transfer (DET) cycles, and to propose a new prediction model for external validation.

METHODS

All cycles with autologous or donor cryopreserved DET of day 3 embryos from 2002 to 2011 at a single academic institution with a singleton or twin live birth were included (n = 207). Patient characteristics, post-thaw embryo morphology and freeze-thaw parameters were compared between patients with a single and twin live birth.

RESULTS

Demographic characteristics were similar, except that patients delivering twins were younger at age of cryopreserved embryo transfer (CET), fewer were parous and more were anovulatory. Duration of embryo storage, time in culture post-thaw, endometrial thickness and use of assisted hatching were comparable. Six predictors of twin delivery were identified: patient age <35 year at CET, intact survival of the lead embryo, resumption of mitosis, 7-8 viable cells in the non-lead embryo, transfer of a lead embryo with ≥7 cells and a sum of ≥14 viable cells in the two transferred embryos. Regression modeling predicted a step-wise increase in the probability of twins with addition of each predictor; with all six present, the risk of twins was predicted to be 53 % and with none present, the risk decreased to 6 %.

CONCLUSIONS

The six identified variables associated with twin live birth following day 3 cryopreserved DET have been applied to derive a prediction model for estimating the risk of twin delivery. External validation of the model is required prior to clinical application.

Using Bonferroni, BIC and AIC to assess evidence for alternative biological pathways: covariate selection for the multilevel Embryo-Uterus model

Background

IVF treatments for infertility involve the transfer of multiple embryos in any one treatment cycle. When data is available on individual embryos the outcomes of each embryo are only partially observed, as treatment outcome (live birth) is assessed at the patient level. Two-level Embryo-Uterus (EU) models have been developed which assume a biologically plausible mechanism and assume that effects are mediated directly through the embryo (E) and also through the uterine environment (U), represented by two sub-models. This approach potentially allows inference as to the association of patient variables with outcome. However, when the variable is measured at the patient level either additional decisions have to be made in the modelling process as to in which sub-model the variable should be included or some model selection algorithm has to be invoked. These uncertainties have limited the practical application of these models.

Methods

We have conducted simulation studies based around realistic parameter values of situations where a putative patient-level variable is being considered for inclusion in an EU model and/or the mechanistic interpretation from the sub-model assignment is of interest. Firstly we explore various strategies for inference for a variable of interest where the sub-model is either pre-specified or considered unknown. Secondly we explore the use of information criteria to select the appropriate sub-model and the strength of evidence for that assignment. These are demonstrated in a reanalysis of a previously published dataset.

Results

In the absence of prior evidence for potential prognostic factors measured at the patient level, two single degree-of-freedom likelihood ratio tests with a Bonferroni correction including the variable of interest in first the E then the U sub-model performs well as a statistical test for association with outcome. For model building the information criteria can be used, but large differences are required (⪆6) to provide reasonable evidence of sub-model assignment. Previous interpretations have been over-optimistic.

Conclusions

These results suggest simple strategies and should enable these models to be used more confidently in practical applications.

Prediction of embryo implantation potential by mass spectrometry fingerprinting of the culture medium

This study has evaluated the performance of a multivariate statistical model to predict embryo implantation potential by processing data from the chemical fingerprinting of culture medium samples used for human embryo culture. The culture medium for 113 embryos from 55 patients undergoing ICSI was collected after embryo transfer. The samples were split into positive (n=29) and negative (n=84) implantation groups according their implantation outcomes (100% or 0% implantation). The samples were individually diluted and analyzed by electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-MS). The m/z ratios and relative abundances of the major ions in each spectrum were considered for partial least square discriminant analysis. Data were divided into two subsets (calibration and validation), and the models were evaluated and applied to the validation set. A total of 5987 ions were observed in the groups. The multivariate statistical model described more than 82% of the data variability. Samples of the positive group were correctly identified with 100% probability and negative samples with 70%. The culture media used for embryos that were positive or negative for successful implantation showed specific biochemical signatures that could be detected in a fast, simple, and noninvasive way by ESI-MS. To our knowledge, this is the first report that uses MS fingerprinting to predict human embryo implantation potential. This biochemical profile could help the selection of the most viable embryo, improving single-embryo transfer and thus eliminating the risk and undesirable outcomes of multiple pregnancies.

Predicting personalized multiple birth risks after in vitro fertilization-double embryo transfer

OBJECTIVE

To report and evaluate the performance and utility of an approach to predicting IVF-double embryo transfer (DET) multiple birth risks that is evidence-based, clinic-specific, and considers each patient's clinical profile.

DESIGN

Retrospective prediction modeling.

SETTING

An outpatient university-affiliated IVF clinic.

PATIENT(S)

We used boosted tree methods to analyze 2,413 independent IVF-DET treatment cycles that resulted in live births. The IVF cycles were retrieved from a database that comprised more than 33,000 IVF cycles.

INTERVENTION(S)

None.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

The performance of this prediction model, MBP-BIVF, was validated by an independent data set, to evaluate predictive power, discrimination, dynamic range, and reclassification.

RESULT(S)

Multiple birth probabilities ranging from 11.8% to 54.8% were predicted by the model and were significantly different from control predictions in more than half of the patients. The prediction model showed an improvement of 146% in predictive power and 16.0% in discrimination over control. The population standard error was 1.8%.

CONCLUSION(S)

We showed that IVF patients have inherently different risks of multiple birth, even when DET is specified, and this risk can be predicted before ET. The use of clinic-specific prediction models provides an evidence-based and personalized method to counsel patients.

Selection of single blastocysts for fresh transfer via standard morphology assessment alone and with array CGH for good prognosis IVF patients: results from a randomized pilot study

BACKGROUND

Single embryo transfer (SET) remains underutilized as a strategy to reduce multiple gestation risk in IVF, and its overall lower pregnancy rate underscores the need for improved techniques to select one embryo for fresh transfer. This study explored use of comprehensive chromosomal screening by array CGH (aCGH) to provide this advantage and improve pregnancy rate from SET.

METHODS

First-time IVF patients with a good prognosis (age <35, no prior miscarriage) and normal karyotype seeking elective SET were prospectively randomized into two groups: In Group A, embryos were selected on the basis of morphology and comprehensive chromosomal screening via aCGH (from d5 trophectoderm biopsy) while Group B embryos were assessed by morphology only. All patients had a single fresh blastocyst transferred on d6. Laboratory parameters and clinical pregnancy rates were compared between the two groups.

RESULTS

For patients in Group A (n = 55), 425 blastocysts were biopsied and analyzed via aCGH (7.7 blastocysts/patient). Aneuploidy was detected in 191/425 (44.9%) of blastocysts in this group. For patients in Group B (n = 48), 389 blastocysts were microscopically examined (8.1 blastocysts/patient). Clinical pregnancy rate was significantly higher in the morphology + aCGH group compared to the morphology-only group (70.9 and 45.8%, respectively; p = 0.017); ongoing pregnancy rate for Groups A and B were 69.1 vs. 41.7%, respectively (p = 0.009). There were no twin pregnancies.

CONCLUSION

Although aCGH followed by frozen embryo transfer has been used to screen at risk embryos (e.g., known parental chromosomal translocation or history of recurrent pregnancy loss), this is the first description of aCGH fully integrated with a clinical IVF program to select single blastocysts for fresh SET in good prognosis patients. The observed aneuploidy rate (44.9%) among biopsied blastocysts highlights the inherent imprecision of SET when conventional morphology is used alone. Embryos randomized to the aCGH group implanted with greater efficiency, resulted in clinical pregnancy more often, and yielded a lower miscarriage rate than those selected without aCGH. Additional studies are needed to verify our pilot data and confirm a role for on-site, rapid aCGH for IVF patients contemplating fresh SET.

The non-independence of treatment outcomes from repeat IVF cycles: estimates and consequences

BACKGROUND

It is generally acknowledged that the outcomes of IVF treatments are correlated between repeat cycles in the same couple and that these effects need to be allowed for in the analysis of such treatments. However, there are few studies that have attempted to estimate the magnitude of these effects or their clinical consequences.

METHODS

We use the embryo-uterus model, extended to include inter-cycle correlations in both the embryo and uterine components to estimate these effects in a large data set of 12 480 embryo transfer cycles from 8768 UK IVF patients, including embryo grading parameters. Empirical Bayes estimates are used to predict the consequences of previous cycle failures on the prognosis of future cycles.

RESULTS

Statistically and clinically significant correlations can be detected which amount to a median odds ratio of 2.3 (95% CI: 1.8-2.9) in the chances of an embryo being viable between any two randomly selected patients. These act predominantly through the embryo component of the model. Inclusion of these effects in the embryo model does alter the estimates and predictions, but not dramatically. Around 10 cycle failures are required to reduce the probability of success in future cycles to half that of the initial cycle.

CONCLUSIONS

There are important inter-cycle correlations between embryos transferred across different cycles from the same patients, implying substantial unmeasured prognostic embryo characteristics. The implications for extended culture and cryopreserved embryos need further investigation as well as similar consideration of the other components of treatment, particularly response to stimulation. Although these effects should not be ignored they have limited impact in the development of predictive models for individual cycles, but do need to be accounted for when considering multiple cycle treatment programmes. For individual patients the failure of one or several embryo transfers does not have a big impact on the chances of success in future cycles. The magnitude of the correlations suggests that for any individual couple, previous cycle implantation failures do not imply a greatly reduced prognosis for future cycles.

Contribution of cryopreservation in a mandatory SET policy: analysis of 5 years of application of law in an academic IVF center

OBJECTIVE

To analyse treatment outcomes after SET law enforcement and to evaluate the contribution of cryopreservation in a SET policy.

MATERIAL

Embryo transfer cycles performed after the law enforcement (SET period) was retrospectively compared to the cycles performed before the law enforcement (DET period).

RESULTS

Pregnancy and delivery rates after fresh transfer of SET and DET periods were comparable (31.7% versus 33.3% and 24.5% versus 26.2%, respectively, NS). Overall twin delivery rate is significantly decreased after the law enforcement (11.3% versus 22.4%, p < 0.001) but not in patients aged 36 to 39 years (20.3% versus 24%, NS). Frozen-thawed embryo cycles allowed similar cumulative pregnancy rate (30.6%, NS). Taking into account all frozen embryos still to be transferred, SET period offers a better overall pregnancy rate than the DET period (36.1% versus 32.3%, p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The Belgian law allowed a dramatic reduction of twin deliveries especially for patients under 39 years. Cryopreservation maintains a similar cumulative pregnancy rate.

The use of single embryo transfer to reduce the incidence of twins: Implications and questions for practice from the 'towardSET?' project

In vitro fertilisation treatments where multiple embryos are transferred are associated with high multiple birth rates leading to a corresponding high infant morbidity. Here we review the results from a multidisciplinary project which aimed to combine state of the art statistical modelling of routine clinical data with consideration of patient perspectives to explore options for reducing multiple birth incidence by increased use of single embryo transfer (SET). Modelling was based on a large multicentre cohort, supplemented by analysis of HFEA register data. Patient perspectives were explored in qualitative interviews and focus groups. The data confirm the reduction of around one-third in the chance of a live birth for any couple in moving from double embryo transfer (DET) to SET in a fresh cycle. This can be somewhat offset by appropriate patient and cycle selection for SET, with many suggested schemes performing similarly, although many patients perceive such selection as unfair. If we take a complete cycle perspective, and consider the transfer of all good-quality embryos with cryopreservation then it is possible for SET to match or even outperform DET. However, the additional treatment cycles are seen by patients as physically and emotionally burdensome. Such treatments will require optimisation of embryo freezing policies and a number of options are explored.

Factors predicting the cumulative outcome of IVF/ICSI treatment: a multivariable analysis of 2450 patients

BACKGROUND

Knowing predictors of pregnancy in IVF is helpful for clinicians to individualize the treatment plans and improve patient counseling and for patients to decide whether to undergo infertility treatment. The aim of the study was to identify independent predictors of the chance of clinical pregnancy after a completed IVF/ICSI cycle (fresh plus cryopreserved embryos transferred from one stimulated cycle) and to compare the predictive value of important predictors identified.

METHODS

This was a single center, retrospective study of 2450 infertile women undergoing their first IVF treatment between 2002 and 2007. A bootstrapping stepwise variable selection algorithm was performed to identify independent predictors of clinical pregnancy chance from a list of 27 candidate variables. Multivariable logistic regression was used for assessing the effects of predictors. Proportion of explained variation analysis and concordance index were adopted to compare the predictive value of factors.

RESULTS

The following nine independent predictors were included in the final multivariable model: total number of good-quality embryos, total number of embryos, age, antral follicle count, fertilization rate, duration of infertility, endometrial thickness, number of 10-14-mm follicles and progesterone level on the day of hCG injection. The model was cross-validated internally in the training data and validated externally in an independent data with robust performance. The stratified analysis demonstrated that the total number of good-quality embryos was a better predictor of clinical pregnancy chance after a completed IVF/ICSI cycle than age for women <40 years, whereas age was a better predictor for women ≥ 40 years. The restricted cubic spline analysis revealed the relationship between the total number of good-quality embryos and log-odds of achieving a clinical pregnancy was nonlinear.

CONCLUSIONS

Quality and quantity of the whole embryos are the two most important predictors of the cumulative outcome in IVF/ICSI among independent predictors indentified. The importance of embryo quality on cumulative outcome in IVF/ICSI increases with increasing age.