Predicting atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery: a scoping review of associated factors and systematic review of existing prediction models

INTRODUCTION

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is common after cardiac surgery and associated with increased hospital length of stay, patient morbidity and mortality. We aimed to identify factors associated with POAF and evaluate the accuracy of available POAF prediction models.

METHODS

We screened articles from Ovid MEDLINE® and PubMed Central® (PMC) and included studies that evaluated risk factors associated with POAF or studies that designed or validated POAF prediction models. We only included studies in cardiac surgical patients with sample size n ⩾ 50 and a POAF outcome group ⩾20. We summarised factors that were associated with POAF and assessed prediction model performance by reviewing reported calibration and discriminative ability.

RESULTS

We reviewed 232 studies. Of these, 142 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Age was frequently found to be associated with POAF, while most other variables showed contradictory findings, or were assessed in few studies. Overall, 15 studies specifically developed and/or validated 12 prediction models. Of these, all showed poor discrimination or absent calibration in predicting POAF in externally validated cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Except for age, reporting of factors associated with POAF is inconsistent and often contradictory. Prediction models have low discrimination, missing calibration statistics, are at risk of bias and show limited clinical applicability. This suggests the need for studies that prospectively collect AF relevant data in large cohorts and then proceed to validate findings in external data sets.

GCW-UNet segmentation of cardiac magnetic resonance images for evaluation of left atrial enlargement

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Left atrial enlargement (LAE) is an anatomical variation of the left atrium and the result of the long-term increase of left atrial pressure. Most of the increase in stress or volume is due to potential cardiovascular disease. Studies have shown that LAE can independently predict the development of clinically significant cardiovascular disease and heart failure. If the left atrial volume is accurately measured, it will be an essential indicator of human health and an essential means for doctors to find patients' potential diseases. We can analyze the dynamic changes in the left atrial structure and analyze left atrial dilation. However, manual segmentation was inefficient and error-prone before the 3D reconstruction of the left atrium. In order to solve this problem, a convolution neural network (CNN) method based on cardiac magnetic resonance image (MRI) is proposed to automatically segment the left atrial region.

METHODOLOGY

In this paper, we have proposed and developed a novel U-Net with Gaussian blur and channel weight neural network (GCW-UNet) to automatically segment the left atrial region in the MRI of a patient with LAE. After Gaussian blur, different resolutions of the MRI are obtained. High-resolution MRI clearly shows the detailed features of the left atrium, while low-resolution MRI clearly shows the overall outline of the left atrium, which can solve the problem of more minor MRI features. Adaptive channel weights can enhance the atrial segmentation capability of the network.

RESULTS

Compared with the state-of-the-art left atrial segmentation methods, our CNN-based technique results in the segmentation of the left atrium being closer to the manual segmentation by an experienced radiologist. On the test datasets, the mean Dice similarity coefficient reaches 93.57%.

CONCLUSION

Firstly, MRI has a small number of imaging artifacts, which results in low segmentation accuracy. Our method successfully solves the problem. Secondly, due to the high similarity between the background (the area outside the left atrium) and the foreground (the left atrium) in MRI, traditional neural networks misclassify the background as the foreground. Our GCW-Unit can address the imbalanced number of pixels between the foreground and background. Finally, after segmenting the left atrium in the MRI by GCW-Unit, we reconstructed the left atrium to model a three-dimensional heart of a patient suffering from LAE. Based on the different time frames of one heartbeat, we could present the dynamics of the left atrial structure during a cardiac cycle. This can better assist in the evaluation of LAE in heart patients.

The bidirectional relationship of thyroid disease and atrial fibrillation: Established knowledge and future considerations

Atrial fibrillation (AF) tends to occur frequently in patients with thyroid disease, primarily hyperthyroidism. In hyperthyroidism, increased levels of thyroid hormones, via intra- and extranuclear mechanisms, have profound effects on cardiac electrophysiology. Hypothyroidism carries a lower risk for AF and is mainly associated with the overtreatment of hypothyroid patients. New-onset AF is frequently the only manifestation of thyroid disease, which renders screening for thyroid dysfunction in that scenario clinically useful. Managing thyroid disease and comorbid AF is essential. This includes thyroid hormones control along with conventional AF therapy. However, there are several open issues with this comorbid duo. The optimal management of thyroid disease and its impact on AF burden remains obscure. There is scanty information on clear-cut benefits for therapy of subclinical thyroid disease and screening of asymptomatic patients. Furthermore, the immunogenetic overlap between the autoantibodies in Graves' disease and AF genesis may lead to novel therapeutic implications. The objective of this review is to summarize the up-to-date epidemiology, pathogenesis, pathophysiology and management of interacting thyroid disease and AF.

Inflammatory Cytokines During Cardiac Rehabilitation After Heart Surgery and Their Association to Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation

Inflammation is associated with atrial fibrillation (AF), but little is known about the association of AF with the inflammatory serum cytokines after the acute postoperative phase. Thus, we aimed to explore how plasma cytokines concentrations modify during a 3-week cardiac rehabilitation after heart surgery, comparing patients who developed postoperative AF (POAF) and those with permanent AF with patients free from AF (NoAF group). We enrolled 100 consecutive patients and 40 healthy volunteers as a control group. At the beginning of cardiac rehabilitation, 11 days after surgery, serum levels of MPO, PTX3, ADAM17, sST2, IL-25, and IL-33 were dramatically higher, whereas TNFα and IL-37 levels were much lower in NoAF, POAF, and permanent AF patients than in the healthy volunteers. After rehabilitation, most of the cytokines changed tending towards normalization. POAF patients (35% of the total) had higher body mass index and abdominal adiposity than NoAF patients, but similar general characteristics and risk factors for POAF. However, ADAM-17 and IL-25 were always lower in POAF than in NoAF patients, suggesting a protective role of IL-25 and ADAM 17 against POAF occurrence. This finding could impact on therapeutic strategies focusing on the postoperative prophylactic antiarrhythmic interventions.

Genome-wide profiling reveals atrial fibrillation-related circular RNAs in atrial appendages

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an abnormal heart rhythm characterized by rapid and irregular beating of the atria. The non-coding RNAs (ncRNAs) have attracted much attention of AF researchers, as they play a critical role in the transcriptional and post-transcriptional regulation, which could greatly benefit the interpretation of the pathogenesis of AF. However, circRNAs, as a special member of the ncRNAs, and their role in the pathogenesis of AF is less understood. In the present study, we detected a total of 14,215 circRNAs in AF patients and healthy controls. Differential expression analysis of these circRNAs revealed 20 upregulated and 3 downregulated circRNAs, which were differentially expressed in both left and right atrial appendages. The association analysis of the AF-related circRNAs and their parental genes revealed that hsa_circ_0003965 had significantly negative correlation with its parental gene TMEM245 (PCC = -0.51), suggesting that the dysregulation of hsa_circ_0003965 was not regulated by the transcription of its parental gene, but could be associated with glucagon signaling pathway. The competing endogenous RNA (ceRNA) network analysis revealed two upregulated genes, IFNG and GDF7, and one downregulated gene, BMP7, all of which were involved in TGF-beta signaling pathway, which further suggested that these circRNAs, namely hsa_circ_0000075 and hsa_circ_0082096, participated in the AF pathogenesis via TGF-beta signaling pathway. Consistently, TGF-beta signaling pathway was a well-recognized player for its association with atrial fibrosis in AF. In summary, we aimed to discover and provide key circRNAs involved in AF for AF-related researchers, which had the potential to greatly improve our understanding of the underlying mechanism behind circRNAs and AF.

The Expression of BNP, ET-1, and TGF-β1 in Myocardium of Rats with Ventricular Arrhythmias

Ventricular arrhythmia (VA) is a major component of sudden cardiac death (SCD). To investigate the expression of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), endothelin-1 (ET-1), and transforming growth factor-beta 1 (TGF-β1) during VA, we established a rat model of VA induced by BaCl₂ solution through a microinjector pump. PD142893 (ET-1 receptor blocker) and SB431542 (TGF-β1 receptor type I blocker) were used to explore the effect of ET-1 and TGF-β1 on BNP expression in the myocardium after VA. BNP, ET-1, and TGF-β1 in rat myocardium were assayed by western blot and immunohistochemical staining for proteins, and real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction for mRNAs. We found increased expression of BNP and ET-1 in rat myocardium that was associated with the duration of VA. However, TGF-β1 protein expression remained unchanged. Such early increases in BNP and ET-1 may be attributed to fatal arrhythmias associated with SCD, suggesting these may be novel biomarkers of this disease. After intraperitoneal injection of PD142893 and SB431542, respectively, BNP was downregulated in the myocardium of the left ventricle; however, this was abrogated by co-application of the two inhibitors. These results suggested that both ET-1 and TGF-β1, by specifically binding to their receptors, might be involved in the myocardial synthesis of BNP during VA in vivo.

Plasma big endothelin-1 predicts new-onset atrial fibrillation after surgical septal myectomy in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy

Background

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a common complication in patients with obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HOCM) who undergo surgical myectomy. POAF is associated with poor outcome. The role of plasma big endothelin-1 level in predicting atrial fibrillation after surgical septal myectomy in HOCM patients has not well been studied.

Methods

A total of 118 patients with HOCM who underwent surgical septal myectomy were recruited in this study. Plasma big endothelin-1 level was measured. The heart rhythm was continuously monitored during hospital stay. Preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables were collected.

Results

POAF developed among 26 of the 118 patients (22%) in this study. Compared with those without POAF, patients with POAF were significantly older (53.5 ± 10.6 vs. 47.3 ± 13.6 years, P = 0.033), more likely to undergo mitral valve surgery (38.5% vs. 18.5%, P = 0.032), and had higher plasma big endothelin-1 levels (0.41 ± 0.19 vs. 0.27 ± 0.14 pmol/l, P = 0.001), longer hospital stay (9.1 ± 3.7 vs. 7.5 ± 2.8 days, P = 0.022), larger preoperative left atria (48.0 ± 5.2 vs. 44.1 ± 5.9 mm; P = 0.003). In the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the area under the curve for big endothelin-1 was 0.734 (95% CI, 0.634 to 0.834, P<0.001). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, preoperative big endothelin-1 level (OR 100.7, 95%CI: 5.0–2020.0, P = 0.003) and left atrial diameter (OR 1.106, 95%CI: 1.015–1.205, P = 0.022) were independent predictors of POAF.

Conclusion

Elevated preoperative plasma big endothelin-1 level is an independent predictor of POAF in HOCM patients undergoing surgical septal myectomy.

Plasma endothelin-1 levels are increased in atrial fibrillation patients with hyperthyroidism

BACKGROUND

Endothelin-1 (ET-1) is a potent vasoconstrictor, mitogen and inflammatory factor that may contribute to development of atrial fibrillation (AF). Plasma ET-1 levels are increased in hyperthyroid patients, but studies evaluating its relation to AF development in hyperthyroid patients are lacking.

OBJECTIVE

The present study seeks to evaluate the relation of plasma ET-1 to AF development as a function of thyroid status.

METHODS

Blood samples from euthyroid patients (n = 41), hypothyroid (n = 61), hyperthyroid (n = 41), AF with hyperthyroidism (n = 9), and euthyroid AF (n = 10) patients were collected. Plasma ET-1, CRP, and thyroid hormone levels were measured and compared between groups.

RESULTS

Plasma ET-1 levels were higher in hyperthyroid and euthyroid AF patients> hyperthyroid-non-AF > hypo and euthyroid non-AF patients. Plasma ET-1 levels positively correlated with free T3 and T4 levels, and negatively with TSH levels. By multivariate analysis, plasma ET-1 was positively associated with AF, hyperthyroidism, and age. Plasma CRP did not vary by study group in either univariate or multivariate analyses.

CONCLUSION

Plasma ET-1 is associated with AF, elevated in hyperthyroid patients and positively correlated with thyroid hormone levels, suggesting that hyperthyroidism may increase ET-1 expression and release. This study may guide development of novel predictors of AF associated with hyperthyroidism, and may help to personalize therapy in hyperthyroid patients.