GBD-2010 overestimates deaths from road injuries in OECD countries: new methods perform poorly

Assessing discrepancies in estimates of road traffic deaths in Brazil

INTRODUCTION

The First UN Decade of Action for Road Safety (2011-2020) ended with most low/middle-income countries (LMICs) failing to reduce road traffic deaths. In contrast, Brazil reported a strong decline starting in 2012. However, comparisons with global health statistical estimates suggest that official statistics from Brazil under-report traffic deaths and overestimate declines. Therefore, we sought to assess the quality of official reporting in Brazil and explain discrepancies.

METHODS

We obtained national death registration data and classified deaths to road traffic deaths and partially specified causes that could include traffic deaths. We adjusted data for completeness and reattributed partially specified causes proportionately over specified causes. We compared our estimates with reported statistics and estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD)-2019 study and other sources.

RESULTS

We estimate that road traffic deaths in 2019 exceeded the official figure by 31%, similar to traffic insurance claims (27.5%) but less than GBD-2019 estimates (46%). We estimate that traffic deaths have declined by 25% since 2012, close to the decline estimated by official statistics (27%) but much more than estimated by GBD-2019 (10%). We show that GBD-2019 underestimates the extent of recent improvements because GBD models do not track the trends evident in the underlying data.

CONCLUSION

Brazil has made remarkable progress in reducing road traffic deaths in the last decade. A high-level evaluation of what has worked in Brazil could provide important guidance to other LMICs.

Evaluation of road safety policies and their enforcement in Mexico City, 2015-2019: an interrupted time-series study

BACKGROUND

Mexico City approved new road safety policies in 2015, which included lower speed limits and higher fines for traffic offences. In 2019, economic fines were replaced by a point penalty system among other changes. This study evaluates these policies on road traffic collisions, injuries and deaths.

METHODS

Collisions data came from insurance collision claims (January 2015 to December 2019) and road traffic deaths from vital registrations (January 2013 to December 2019). We conducted an interrupted time series analysis for each outcome using negative binomial regression models with an offset of insured vehicles (collisions) or total population (deaths). Then, we classified the 16 municipalities in the city into enforcement and no-enforcement groups based on presence or absence of automated traffic enforcement devices and conducted a controlled interrupted time series analysis.

RESULTS

The 2015 road safety policies had no effect on total collisions and collisions resulting in injury but were associated with a 0.2% (95% CI -0.3 to 0.0) decline in the mortality trend. The 2019 policies had no effect on total collisions but were associated with a 1.5% increase in the trend of collisions resulting in injuries and with a 2.7% (95% CI 1.0 to 4.5) increase in the mortality trend. Postpolicy trends in enforcement versus no-enforcement municipalities were not significantly different.

CONCLUSION

Policies that included high economic penalties for speeding and dangerous behaviours were effective in decreasing traffic mortality while removing economic penalties and replacing them with a point penalty system were associated with an increase in collisions, resulting in injury and mortality.

The role of age inequalities in cause of death in the slow pace of epidemiological transition in India

In developed countries, low disparity in lifespan contributed by the reduction in the burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is the key to advances in epidemiological transition. Contrarily, India passing through a phase of the dual burden of CDs and NCDs shows a heavy burden of NCDs responsible for the high disparity in lifespan. The Gini coefficient was decomposed for examining the contribution of 22 causes of death and their repercussions for inequality in age at death for 30 years between 1990-1994 and 2015-2019, using Global Burden of Disease data. The outcomes of the study reveal that India's epidemiological transition has been just modest on account of high inequality in mortality by NCDs emplaced in the middle through old age despite a consistent mortality decline at infant through old age for communicable diseases (CDs). The structural changes in causes of death structure is shaped by CDs rather than NCDs, but overall bolstered by the adult mortality decline, especially in women. However, the process is restrained by the small contribution of the middle age group and a benign contribution of old mortality decline owing to the low threshold age. India needs to target health interventions in seeking significant mortality decline in the middle age group of 50-69 years that is warranted for epidemiological transition apace as evident in the developed nations.

Comparison of primary liver cancer mortality estimates from World Health Organization, global burden disease and global cancer observatory

AIMS

This study aims to compare estimates of primary liver cancer mortality from World Health Organization (WHO), Global Burden Disease (GBD) and Global Cancer Observatory (GCO).

METHODS

Liver cancer mortality was extracted from WHO, GBD and GCO for 92 countries for the most recent year. Age-standardized rate (ASR) was computed and used for current comparisons across the three data sources. Temporal trend for 75 countries was analysed and compared between WHO and GBD from 1990 to 2019 using joinpoint regression. Average annual percentage change for the most recent 10 years was used as indicator for change.

RESULTS

The estimates of ASR were quite consistent across the three data sources, but most similar estimates were found between WHO and GCO in both region and country levels. The differences in ASR were negatively correlated with completeness of cause-of-death registration, human development index and proportion of liver cancer because of alcohol consumption. Consistent trends of ASR were found from 35 countries between WHO and GBD in the most recent 10 years. However, opposite trends were found from 10 countries with five from Southern America, four from Europe and one from Asia. Of the 18 countries for projection, opposite trends between WHO and GBD were found from seven countries.

CONCLUSION

While the ASR of primary liver cancer mortality was comparable across the three data sources, most similar estimates were found between WHO and GCO. The opposite trends found from 10 countries between WHO and GBD raised concerns of true patterns in these countries.

The gap in life expectancy and lifespan inequality between Iran and neighbour countries: the contributions of avoidable causes of death

Background

Healthcare system and intersectoral public health policies play a crucial role in improving population health and reducing health inequalities. This study aimed to quantify their impact, operationalized as avoidable deaths, on the gap in life expectancy (LE) and lifespan inequality (LI) between Iran and three neighbour countries viz., Turkey, Qatar, and Kuwait in 2015–2016.

Methods

Annual data on population and causes of deaths by age and sex for Iran and three neighbour countries were obtained from the World Health Organization mortality database for the period 2015–2016. A recently developed list by the OECD/Eurostat was used to identify avoidable causes of death (with an upper age limit of 75). The cross-country gaps in LE and LI (measured by standard deviation) were decomposed by age and cause of death using a continuous-change model.

Results

Iranian males and females had the second lowest and lowest LE, respectively, compared with their counterparts in the neighbour countries. On the other hand, the highest LIs in both sexes (by 2.3 to 4.5 years in males and 1.1 to 3.3 years in females) were observed in Iran. Avoidable causes contributed substantially to the LE and LI gap in both sexes with injuries and maternal/infant mortality represented the greatest contributions to the disadvantages in Iranian males and females, respectively.

Conclusions

Higher mortality rates in young Iranians led to a double burden of inequality –shorter LE and greater uncertainty at timing of death. Strengthening intersectoral public health policies and healthcare quality targeted at averting premature deaths, especially from injuries among younger people, can mitigate this double burden.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12939-022-01683-8.

Urban landscape and street-design factors associated with road-traffic mortality in Latin America between 2010 and 2016 (SALURBAL): an ecological study

BACKGROUND

Road-traffic injuries are a key cause of death and disability in low-income and middle-income countries, but the effect of city characteristics on road-traffic mortality is unknown in these countries. The aim of this study was to determine associations between city-level built environment factors and road-traffic mortality in large Latin American cities.

METHODS

We selected cities from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Panama, and Peru; cities included in the analysis had a population of at least 100 000 people. We extracted data for road-traffic deaths that occurred between 2010 and 2016 from country vital registries. Deaths were grouped by 5-year age groups and sex. Road-traffic deaths were identified using ICD-10 codes, with adjustments for ill-defined codes and incomplete registration. City-level measures included population, urban development, street design, public transportation, and social environment. Associations were estimated using multilevel negative binomial models with robust variances.

FINDINGS

366 cities were included in the analysis. There were 328 408 road-traffic deaths in nearly 3·5 billion person-years across all countries, with an average crude rate of 17·1 deaths per 100 000 person-years. Nearly half of the people who died were younger than 35 years. In multivariable models, road-traffic mortality was higher in cities where urban development was more isolated (rate ratio [RR] 1·05 per 1 SD increase, 95% CI 1·02-1·09), but lower in cities with higher population density (0·94, 0·90-0·98), higher gross domestic product per capita (0·96, 0·94-0·98), and higher intersection density (0·92, 0·89-0·95). Cities with mass transit had lower road mortality rates than did those without (0·92, 0·86-0·99).

INTERPRETATION

Urban development policies that reduce isolated and disconnected urban development and that promote walkable street networks and public transport could be important strategies to reduce road-traffic deaths in Latin America and elsewhere.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

The level and trend of road traffic injuries attributable mortality rate in Iran, 1990-2015: a story of successful regulations and a roadmap to design future policies

BACKGROUND

Road-Traffic-Injuries (RTIs) are predicted to rise up to the fifth leading cause of worldwide death by 2030 and Iran has the third highest RTIs mortality among higher-middle income countries. Although the high mortality of RTI in Iran is a warning, it provides the opportunity to indirectly assess the implemented RTI-related regulations' effectiveness via high-resolution relevant statistics and, hence, Iran could serve as a guide for countries with similar context. In order to do so, we utilized this study to report the time and spatial trends of RTIs-related mortality in different age and sex groups and road user classes in Iran.

METHODS

Based on the national death-registration-system (DRS), cemeteries data, and the demographic characteristics, and after addressing incompleteness, we estimated mortality rates using spatiotemporal and Gaussian process regression models. We assessed Pearson seatbelt and helmet use and RTIs-attributable Age-Standardized-Morality-Rate (ASMR) associations. We also predicted RTIs-death-numbers, 2012-2020, by fitting a Generalized Additive Model to assess the status of achieving relevant sustainable development goal (SDG), namely reducing the number of RTIs-related deaths by half.

RESULTS

Overall RTIs-attributable death and ASMR at the national level increased from 12.64 [95% UI, 9.52-16.86] to 29.1 [22.76-37.14] per 100,000 people in the time period of 1990-2015. The trend consisted of an increasing segment in 1990-2003 followed by a decreasing part till 2015. The highest percentage of death belonged to the three-or-more-wheels motorized vehicles. Pedestrian injuries percentage increased significantly and the highest mortality rate occurred in 85 years and older individuals. Low prevalence of seatbelt and helmet use were observed in provinces with higher than the median ASMR due to the relevant cause of each. RTIs-attributable death number is expected to reduce by 15.99% till 2020 which is lower than the established SDG goal.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the observed substantial moderation in the RTI-ASMR, Iran is till among the leading countries in terms of the highest mortality rates in the world. The enforced regulations including speed limitations (particularly for elder pedestrians) and mandatory use of seatbelt and helmet (for young adult and male drivers) had a considerable effect on ASMR, nevertheless, the RTI burden reduction needs to be sustained and enhanced.

Disability-adjusted life years associated with population ageing in China, 1990-2017

BACKGROUND

The Chinese population has aged significantly in the last few decades. Comprehensive health losses including both fatal and non-fatal health outcomes associated with ageing in China have not been detailed.

METHODS

Based on freely accessible disability adjusted life years (DALYs) estimated by the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2017, we adopted a robust decomposition method that ascribes changes in DALYs in any given country across two time points to changes resulting from three sources: population size, age structure, and age-specific DALYs rate per 100,000 population. Using the method, we calculated DALYs associated with population ageing in China from 1990 to 2017 and examined the counteraction between the effects of DALYs rate change and population ageing. This method extends previous work through attributing the change in DALYs to the three sources.

RESULTS

Population ageing was associated with 92.8 million DALYs between 1990 and 2017 in China, of which 65.8% (61.1 million) were years of life lost (YLLs). Males had comparatively more DALYs associated with population ageing than females in the study period. The five leading causes of DALYs associated with population ageing between 1990 and 2017 were stroke (23.6 million), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (18.3 million), ischemic heart disease (13.0 million), tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (6.1 million) and liver cancer (5.0 million). Between 1990 and 2017, changes in DALYs associated with age-specific DALY rate reductions far exceeded those related to population ageing (- 196.2 million versus 92.8 million); 57.5% (- 112.8 million) of DALYs were caused by decreases in rates attributed to 84 modifiable risk factors.

CONCLUSION

Population ageing was associated with growing health loss in China from 1990 to 2017. Despite the recent progress in alleviating health loss associated with population ageing, the government should encourage scientific research on effective and affordable prevention and control strategies and should consider investment in resources to implement strategies nationwide to address the future challenge of population ageing.

Estimating patterns in the under-reporting of suicide deaths in India: comparison of administrative data and Global Burden of Disease Study estimates, 2005-2015

BACKGROUND

It has been proposed that the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), which reports suicides in India, differentially underenumerates suicides by geographic and demographic factors. We assessed the extent of potential underenumeration by comparing suicides recorded in NCRB data with recent estimates of Indian suicides developed by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) initiative.

METHODS

Age-standardised suicide rates were calculated for both data sources by sex, age and state, and rate ratios of NCRB to GBD estimates by corresponding strata were compared to ascertain the relative under-reporting in the NCRB report.

RESULTS

The GBD Study reported an additional 802 684 deaths by suicide (333 558 male and 469 126 female suicide deaths) compared with the NCRB report between 2005 and 2015. Among males, the average under-reporting was 27% (range 21%-31%) per year, and among females, the average under-reporting was 50% (range 47%-54%) per year. Under-reporting was more evident among younger (15-29 years) and older age groups (≥60 years) compared with middle age groups. Indian states belonging to low Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) generally had greater underenumeration compared with middle and high-SDI states.

CONCLUSION

NCRB data under-report suicides in India, and differentially by sex, age and geographic area, possibly because of lack of community-level reporting of suicides due to social stigma and legal consequences. While the recent decriminalisation of suicide is expected to improve community-level reporting of suicides, suicide prevention policies should be developed, with a priority to address social stigma attached with suicide and suicidal behaviour, especially among females.

What can we learn from the historic road safety performance of high-income countries?

Road traffic deaths in high-income countries (HICs) have been steadily declining for five decades, but are rising or stable in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We use time-series cross-sectional methods to assess how age- and sex- specific death rates evolved in 20 HICs during 1955-2015, controlling for income, population density and urbanization. Past work has attributed improvements in safety in HICs to income growth, suggesting that countries intervene when they become richer (Kuznets hypothesis). In contrast, we show that HICs had statistically significant declines in road traffic injuries starting in the late 1960s that persist after controlling for income effects, and inclusion of a lagged dependent variable. These findings are consistent for all age-sex groups but the effects are strongest for the elderly and young children. We argue that the reversal in the traffic injury trend did not occur because HICs reached an income threshold. Instead, the 1960s were a period of paradigmatic change in thinking about road safety. Subsequent, safety improvements occurred because countries at different income levels established regulatory institutions that had a legislative mandate and financial resources to conduct large-scale safety interventions.

Injury death certificates without specification of the circumstances leading to the fatal injury - the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry 2005-2014

Background

For injury deaths, the underlying cause of death is defined as the circumstances leading to the injury. When this information is missing, the ICD-10 code X59 (Exposure to unspecified factor) is used. Lack of knowledge of factors causing injuries reduces the value of the cause of death statistics. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of X59-coded deaths in Norway, and to assess methods to identify the true underlying cause of injury deaths.

Methods

We used data from the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry from 2005 to 2014. We used logistic regression to identify determinants of X59-coded deaths. For redistribution of the X59 deaths, we used a multinomial logistic regression model based on the cases where injury circumstances were known. The data were divided into training and test sets. The model was developed on the training set and assessed on the test set before it was applied to the X59 deaths. The models used death certificate information on the nature of injury and demographic characteristics as predictor variables. Furthermore, we mailed a query to the certifying physicians of X59 deaths reported in the year 2015, where we asked for additional information on the circumstances leading to the fatal injury.

Results

There were 24,963 injury deaths reported to the Cause of Death Registry of Norway 2005–2014. Of these, 6440 (25.8%) lacked information on the circumstances leading to the death. The strongest predictor for a X59 death was the nature of injury (hip fracture), followed by lack of information on the scene of injury. Applying our redistribution algorithm, we estimated that 97% of the X59-coded deaths were accidental falls. The strongest covariate was the nature of injury, followed by place of death and age at death. In 2015, there were 591 X59-coded deaths. Queries were sent to the certifying doctors in 559 cases. Among the informative replies to the query, 88% of the deaths were reclassified to accidental falls.

Conclusions

A large proportion of injury deaths in Norway lack information on the circumstances leading to the fatal injury. Typically, these deaths represent accidental falls causing hip fracture in elderly individuals.

Disability Weights for Pediatric Surgical Procedures: A Systematic Review and Analysis

BACKGROUND

Metrics to measure the burden of surgical conditions, such as disability weights (DWs), are poorly defined, particularly for pediatric conditions. To summarize the literature on DWs of children's surgical conditions, we performed a systematic review of disability weights of pediatric surgical conditions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

METHOD

For this systematic review, we searched MEDLINE for pediatric surgery cost-effectiveness studies in LMICs, published between January 1, 1996, and April 1, 2017. We also included DWs found in the Global Burden of Disease studies, bibliographies of studies identified in PubMed, or through expert opinion of authors (ES and HR).

RESULTS

Out of 1427 publications, 199 were selected for full-text analysis, and 30 met all eligibility criteria. We identified 194 discrete DWs published for 66 different pediatric surgical conditions. The DWs were primarily derived from the Global Burden of Disease studies (72%). Of the 194 conditions with reported DWs, only 12 reflected pre-surgical severity, and 12 included postsurgical severity. The methodological quality of included studies and DWs for specific conditions varied greatly.

INTERPRETATION

It is essential to accurately measure the burden, cost-effectiveness, and impact of pediatric surgical disease in order to make informed policy decisions. Our results indicate that the existing DWs are inadequate to accurately quantify the burden of pediatric surgical conditions. A wider set of DWs for pediatric surgical conditions needs to be developed, taking into account factors specific to the range and severity of surgical conditions.

Ecological study of road traffic injuries in the eastern Mediterranean region: country economic level, road user category and gender perspectives

BACKGROUND

The Eastern Mediterranean region has the second highest number of road traffic injury mortality rates after the African region based on 2013 data, with road traffic injuries accounting for 27% of the total injury mortality in the region. Globally the number of road traffic deaths has plateaued despite an increase in motorization, but it is uncertain whether this applies to the Region. This study investigated the regional trends in both road traffic injury mortality and morbidity and examined country-based differences considering on income level, categories of road users, and gender distribution.

METHODS

Register-based ecological study linking data from Global Burden of Disease Study with the United Nations Statistics Division for population and World Bank definition for country income level. Road traffic injury mortality rates and disability-adjusted life years were compiled for all ages at country level in 1995, 2005, 2015 and combined for a regional average (n = 22) and a global average (n = 122). The data were stratified by country economic level, road user category and gender.

RESULTS

Road traffic injury mortality rates in the Region were higher than the global average for all three reference years but suggest a downward trend. In 2015 mortality rates were more than twice as high in low and high income countries compared to global income averages and motor vehicle occupants had a 3-fold greater mortality than the global average. Severe injuries decreased by more than half for high/middle income countries but remained high for low income countries; three times higher for males than females.

CONCLUSION

Despite a potential downward trend, inequalities in road traffic injury mortality and morbidity burden remain high in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Action needs to be intensified and targeted to implement and enforce safety measures that prevent and mitigate severe motor vehicle crashes in high income countries especially and invest in efforts to promote public, active transport for vulnerable road users in the resource poor countries of the Region.

Global road fatality trends' estimations based on country-wise micro level data

The global road crash deaths during the past 35 years are estimated and analysed considering micro-level data for 215 countries. The data were gathered from Governmental records, international databases, and personal contacts. The data are adjusted for underreporting, death definition differences and missing data. The study models both reported and adjusted death to forecast future crash trends for each continent. The developed models employed curve fitting regression technique. It took over five years to build-up the database. The global sum of crash deaths showed firm increasing trends between 1980 and 2008. Subsequently, the global deaths tend to slow down. The adjusted death during 2014 ranged between 792,000 and 905,000. The high range showed 40% lesser death than World Health Organization (WHO) estimate. The developed models presented a plateauing transition stage of global road deaths before descending. This is contradicting WHO and The World Bank (TWB) forecasts. The global adjusted death for 2020 and 2030, differed substantially from WHO and TWB forecasts. The results showed inconsistencies in road deaths between various WHO sectors. The trend of crash fatalities in Asia followed closely with that for global trend, and that in Africa it showed fluctuated trend with steep increasing tendency after 1999. In South America, it showed continuous ascending trends, and that in Europe and Oceanic countries showed clear descending patterns. The trend in North and Central America did not change much during the period between 1980 and 2007. While the developed models indicated drops of 33% in North and Central America, 18% in Oceania and 13% in Asia by 2025 compared with 2014, they increase by over 44% in Africa and 32% in South America. The poor safety records in several continents, require careful reading, proper interpretation of the results and extensive research.

Impact of improving vehicle front design on the burden of pedestrian injuries in Germany, the United States, and India

OBJECTIVE

European car design regulations and New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) ratings have led to reductions in pedestrian injuries. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of improving vehicle front design on mortality and morbidity due to pedestrian injuries in a European country (Germany) and 2 countries (the United States and India) that do not have pedestrian-focused NCAP testing or design regulations.

METHODS

We used data from the International Road Traffic and Accident Database and the Global Burden of Disease project to estimate baseline pedestrian deaths and nonfatal injuries in each country in 2013. The effect of improved passenger car star ratings on probability of pedestrian injury was based on recent evaluations of pedestrian crash data from Germany. The effect of improved heavy motor vehicle (HMV) front end design on pedestrian injuries was based on estimates reported by simulation studies. We used burden of disease methods to estimate population health loss by combining the burden of morbidity and mortality in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost.

RESULTS

Extrapolating from evaluations in Germany suggests that improving front end design of cars can potentially reduce the burden of pedestrian injuries due to cars by up to 24% in the United States and 41% in India. In Germany, where cars comply with the United Nations regulation on pedestrian safety, additional improvements would have led to a 1% reduction. Similarly, improved HMV design would reduce DALYs lost by pedestrian victims hit by HMVs by 20% in each country. Overall, improved vehicle design would reduce DALYs lost to road traffic injuries (RTIs) by 0.8% in Germany, 4.1% in the United States, and 6.7% in India.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent evaluations show a strong correlation between Euro NCAP pedestrian scores and real-life pedestrian injuries, suggesting that improved car front end design in Europe has led to substantial reductions in pedestrian injuries. Although the United States has fewer pedestrian crashes, it would nevertheless benefit substantially by adopting similar regulations and instituting pedestrian NCAP testing. The maximum benefit would be realized in low- and middle-income countries like India that have a high proportion of pedestrian crashes. Though crash avoidance technologies are being developed to protect pedestrians, supplemental protection through design regulations may significantly improve injury countermeasures for vulnerable road users.

Child and Adolescent Mortality Across Malaysia's Epidemiological Transition: A Systematic Analysis of Global Burden of Disease Data

PURPOSE

A rapid epidemiological transition in developing countries in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by major shifts in the health status of children and adolescents. In this article, mortality estimates in Malaysian children and adolescents from 1990 to 2013 are used to illustrate these changes.

METHODS

All-cause and cause-specific mortality estimates were obtained from the 2013 Global Burden of Disease Study. Data were extracted from 1990 to 2013 for the developmental age range from 1 to 24 years, for both sexes. Trends in all-cause and cause-specific mortality for the major epidemiological causes were estimated.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2013, all-cause mortality decreased in all age groups. Reduction of all-cause mortality was greatest in 1- to 4-year-olds (2.4% per year reduction) and least in 20- to 24-year-olds (.9% per year reduction). Accordingly, in 2013, all-cause mortality was highest in 20- to 24-year-old males (129 per 100,000 per year). In 1990, the principal cause of death for 1- to 9-year boys and girls was vaccine preventable diseases. By 2013, neoplasms had become the major cause of death in 1-9 year olds of both sexes. The major cause of death in 10- to 24-year-old females was typhoid in 1990 and neoplasms in 2013, whereas the major cause of death in 10- to 24-year-old males remained road traffic injuries.

CONCLUSIONS

The reduction in mortality across the epidemiological transition in Malaysia has been much less pronounced for adolescents than younger children. The contribution of injuries and noncommunicable diseases to adolescent mortality suggests where public health strategies should focus.

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.

METHODS

We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.

INTERPRETATION

At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national levels of maternal mortality, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

In transitioning from the Millennium Development Goal to the Sustainable Development Goal era, it is imperative to comprehensively assess progress toward reducing maternal mortality to identify areas of success, remaining challenges, and frame policy discussions. We aimed to quantify maternal mortality throughout the world by underlying cause and age from 1990 to 2015.

METHODS

We estimated maternal mortality at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2015 for ages 10-54 years by systematically compiling and processing all available data sources from 186 of 195 countries and territories, 11 of which were analysed at the subnational level. We quantified eight underlying causes of maternal death and four timing categories, improving estimation methods since GBD 2013 for adult all-cause mortality, HIV-related maternal mortality, and late maternal death. Secondary analyses then allowed systematic examination of drivers of trends, including the relation between maternal mortality and coverage of specific reproductive health-care services as well as assessment of observed versus expected maternal mortality as a function of Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility.

FINDINGS

Only ten countries achieved MDG 5, but 122 of 195 countries have already met SDG 3.1. Geographical disparities widened between 1990 and 2015 and, in 2015, 24 countries still had a maternal mortality ratio greater than 400. The proportion of all maternal deaths occurring in the bottom two SDI quintiles, where haemorrhage is the dominant cause of maternal death, increased from roughly 68% in 1990 to more than 80% in 2015. The middle SDI quintile improved the most from 1990 to 2015, but also has the most complicated causal profile. Maternal mortality in the highest SDI quintile is mostly due to other direct maternal disorders, indirect maternal disorders, and abortion, ectopic pregnancy, and/or miscarriage. Historical patterns suggest achievement of SDG 3.1 will require 91% coverage of one antenatal care visit, 78% of four antenatal care visits, 81% of in-facility delivery, and 87% of skilled birth attendance.

INTERPRETATION

Several challenges to improving reproductive health lie ahead in the SDG era. Countries should establish or renew systems for collection and timely dissemination of health data; expand coverage and improve quality of family planning services, including access to contraception and safe abortion to address high adolescent fertility; invest in improving health system capacity, including coverage of routine reproductive health care and of more advanced obstetric care-including EmOC; adapt health systems and data collection systems to monitor and reverse the increase in indirect, other direct, and late maternal deaths, especially in high SDI locations; and examine their own performance with respect to their SDI level, using that information to formulate strategies to improve performance and ensure optimum reproductive health of their population.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.