National, Regional and Global Certification Bodies for Polio Eradication: A Framework for Verifying Measles Elimination

Optimal vaccination ages for emerging infectious diseases under limited vaccine supply

Rational allocation of limited vaccine resources is one of the key issues in the prevention and control of emerging infectious diseases. An age-structured infectious disease model with limited vaccine resources is proposed to explore the optimal vaccination ages. The effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] of the epidemic disease is computed. It is shown that the reproduction number is the threshold value for eradicating disease in the sense that the disease-free steady state is globally stable if [Formula: see text] and there exists a unique endemic equilibrium if [Formula: see text]. The effective reproduction number is used as an objective to minimize the disease spread risk. Using the epidemic data from the early spread of Wuhan, China and demographic data of Wuhan, we figure out the strategies to distribute the vaccine to the age groups to achieve the optimal vaccination effects. These analyses are helpful to the design of vaccination schedules for emerging infectious diseases.

Persistence of immunity following a single dose of inactivated poliovirus vaccine: a phase 4, open label, non-randomised clinical trial

BACKGROUND

The polio eradication endgame required the withdrawal of Sabin type 2 from the oral poliovirus vaccine and introduction of one or more dose of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) into routine immunisation schedules. However, the duration of single-dose IPV immunity is unknown. We aimed to address this deficiency.

METHODS

In this phase 4, open-label, non-randomised clinical trial, we assessed single-dose IPV immunity. Two groups of infants or children were screened: the first group had previously received IPV at 14 weeks of age or older (previous IPV group; age >2 years); the second had not previously received IPV (no previous IPV group; age 7-12 months). At enrolment, all participants received an IPV dose. Children in the no previous IPV group received a second IPV dose at day 30. Blood was collected three times in each group: on days 0, 7, and 30 in the previous IPV group and on days 0, 30, and 37 in the no previous IPV group. Poliovirus antibody was measured by microneutralisation assay. Immunity was defined as the presence of a detectable antibody or a rapid anamnestic response (ie, priming). We used the χ2 to compare proportions and the Mann-Whitney U test to assess continuous variables. To assess safety, vaccinees were observed for 30 min, caregivers for each participating child reported adverse events after each follow-up visit and were questioned during each follow-up visit regarding any adverse events during the intervening period. Adverse events were recorded and graded according to the severity of clinical symptoms. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03723837.

FINDINGS

From Nov 18, 2018, to July 31, 2019, 502 participants enrolled in the study, 458 (255 [65%] boys and 203 [44%] girls) were included in the per protocol analysis: 234 (93%) in the previous IPV group and 224 (90%) in the no previous IPV group. In the previous IPV group, 28 months after one IPV dose 233 (>99%) of 234 children had persistence of poliovirus type 2 immunity (100 [43%] of 234 children were seropositive; 133 [99%] of 134 were seronegative and primed). In the no previous IPV group, 30 days after one IPV dose all 224 (100%) children who were type 2 poliovirus naive had seroconverted (223 [>99%] children) or were primed (one [<1%]). No adverse events were deemed attributable to study interventions.

INTERPRETATION

A single IPV dose administered at 14 weeks of age or older is highly immunogenic and induces nearly universal type 2 immunity (seroconversion and priming), with immunity persisting for at least 28 months. The polio eradication initiative should prioritise first IPV dose administration to mitigate the paralytic burden caused by poliovirus type 2.

FUNDING

WHO and Rotary International.

Vaccination games in prevention of infectious diseases with application to COVID-19

Vaccination coverage is crucial for disease prevention and control. An appropriate combination of compulsory vaccination with voluntary vaccination is necessary to achieve the goal of herd immunity for some epidemic diseases such as measles and COVID-19. A mathematical model is proposed that incorporates both compulsory vaccination and voluntary vaccination, where a decision of voluntary vaccination is made on the basis of game evaluation by comparing the expected returns of different strategies. It is shown that the threshold of disease invasion is determined by the reproduction numbers, and an over-response in magnitude or information interval in the dynamic games could induce periodic oscillations from the Hopf bifurcation. The theoretical results are applied to COVID-19 to find out the strategies for protective immune barrier against virus variants.

Strengthening National Immunization Technical Advisory Groups in resource-limited settings: current and potential linkages with polio national certification committees

Background

Countries are transitioning assets and functions from polio eradication to integrated immunization and surveillance activities. We assessed the extent of linkages between and perceptions of National Immunization Technical Advisory Groups (NITAGs) and National Certification Committees (NCCs) for polio eradication to understand how linkages can be leveraged to improve efficiencies of these expert bodies.

Methods

During May 2017 to May 2018, we administered a 15-question survey to a NITAG chair or member and an NCC counterpart in all countries of the WHO Regions for Africa (AFR) and for the Eastern Mediterranean (EMR) that had both a NITAG and an NCC. Data were analysed using frequency distributions.

Results

Of countries with both a NITAG and an NCC (n = 44), the response rate was 92% (22/24) in AFR and 75% (15/20) in EMR. Some respondents reported being very familiar with the functions of the other technical bodies, 36% (8/22) for NITAG members and 38% (14/37) for NCC members. Over 85% (51/59) of respondents felt it was somewhat useful or very useful to strengthen ties between bodies. Nearly all respondents (98%, 58/59) felt that NCC expertise could inform measles and rubella elimination programmes.

Conclusions

We observed a broad consensus that human resource assets of NCCs may serve an important technical role to support national immunization policy-making. At this stage of the polio eradication initiative, countries should consider how to integrate the technical expertise of NCC members to reinforce NITAGs and maintain the polio essential functions, beginning in countries that have been polio-free for several years.

The African Region early experience with structures for the verification of measles elimination – a review

Substantial progress has been achieved in the last two decades with the implementation of measles control strategies in the African Region. Elimination of measles is defined as the absence of endemic transmission in a defined geographical region or country for at least 12 months, as documented by a well-performing surveillance system. The framework for documenting elimination outlines five lines of evidence that should be utilized in documenting and assessing progress towards measles elimination. In March 2017, the WHO regional office for Africa developed and disseminated regional guidelines for the verification of measles elimination. As of May 2019, fourteen countries in the African Region have established national verification committees and 8 of these have begun to document progress toward measles elimination. Inadequate awareness, concerns about multiple technical committees for immunization work, inadequate funding and human resources, as well as gaps in data quality and in the implementation of measles elimination strategies have been challenges that hindered the establishment and documentation of progress by national verification committees. We recommend continuous capacity building and advocacy, technical assistance and networking to improve the work around the documentation of country progress towards measles elimination in the African Region.

Transition Planning For After Polio Eradication

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) has been in operation since 1988, now spends $1 billion annually, and operates through thousands of staff and millions of volunteers in dozens of countries. It has brought polio to the brink of eradication. After eradication is achieved, what should happen to the substantial assets, capabilities, and lessons of the GPEI? To answer this question, an extensive process of transition planning is underway. There is an absolute need to maintain and mainstream some of the functions, to keep the world polio-free. There is also considerable risk-and, if seized, substantial opportunity-for other health programs and priorities. And critical lessons have been learned that can be used to address other health priorities. Planning has started in the 16 countries where GPEI's footprint is the greatest and in the program's 5 core agencies. Even though poliovirus transmission has not yet been stopped globally, this planning process is gaining momentum, and some plans are taking early shape. This is a complex area of work-with difficult technical, financial, and political elements. There is no significant precedent. There is forward motion and a willingness on many sides to understand and address the risks and to explore the opportunities. Very substantial investments have been made, over 30 years, to eradicate a human pathogen from the world for the second time ever. Transition planning represents a serious intent to responsibly bring the world's largest global health effort to a close and to protect and build upon the investment in this effort, where appropriate, to benefit other national and global priorities. Further detailed technical work is now needed, supported by broad and engaged debate, for this undertaking to achieve its full potential.