Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Monitoring in the Lazio Region (Central Italy)

Modelling the seasonal dynamics of Aedes albopictus populations using a spatio-temporal stacked machine learning model

Various modelling techniques are available to understand the temporal and spatial variations of the phenology of species. Scientists often rely on correlative models, which establish a statistical relationship between a response variable (such as species abundance or presence-absence) and a set of predominantly abiotic covariates. The choice of the modeling approach, i.e., the algorithm, is itself a significant source of variability, as different algorithms applied to the same dataset can yield disparate outcomes. This inter-model variability has led to the adoption of ensemble modelling techniques, among which stacked generalisation, which has recently demonstrated its capacity to produce robust results. Stacked ensemble modelling incorporates predictions from multiple base learners or models as inputs for a meta-learner. The meta-learner, in turn, assimilates these predictions and generates a final prediction by combining the information from all the base learners. In our study, we utilized a recently published dataset documenting egg abundance observations of Aedes albopictus collected using ovitraps. and a set of environmental predictors to forecast the weekly median number of mosquito eggs using a stacked machine learning model. This approach enabled us to (i) unearth the seasonal egg-laying dynamics of Ae. albopictus for 12 years; (ii) generate spatio-temporal explicit forecasts of mosquito egg abundance in regions not covered by conventional monitoring initiatives. Our work establishes a robust methodological foundation for forecasting the spatio-temporal abundance of Ae. albopictus, offering a flexible framework that can be tailored to meet specific public health needs related to this species.

Demographic-environmental effect on dengue outbreaks in 11 countries

BACKGROUND

Dengue outbreaks are common in tropical or temperate countries, and climate change can exacerbate the problem by creating conditions conducive to the spread of mosquitoes and prolonging the transmission season. Warmer temperatures can allow mosquitoes to mature faster and increase their ability to spread disease. Additionally, changes in rainfall patterns can create more standing water, providing a breeding ground for mosquitoes.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to investigate the correlation between environmental and demographic factors and the dissemination of dengue fever. The study will use yearly data from 2000 to 2021 from 11 countries highly affected by dengue, considering multiple factors such as dengue cases, temperatures, precipitation, and population to better understand the impact of these variables on dengue transmission.

METHODS

In this research, Poisson regression (PR) and negative binomial regression (NBR) models are used to model count data and estimate the effect of different predictor variables on the outcome. Also, histogram plots and pairwise correlation plots are used to provide an initial overview of the distribution and relationship between the variables. Moreover, Goodness-of-fit tests, t-test analysis, diagnostic plots, influence plots, and residual vs. leverage plots are used to check the assumptions and validity of the models and identify any outliers or influential observations that may be affecting the results.

RESULTS

The findings indicate that mean temperature and log(Urban) had a positive impact on dengue infection rates, while maximum temperature, log(Precipitation), and population density had a negative impact. However, minimum temperature, log(Rural), and log(Total population) did not demonstrate any significant effects on the incidence of dengue.

CONCLUSION

The impact of demographic-environmental factors on dengue outbreaks in 11 Asian countries is illuminated by this study. The results highlight the significance of mean temperature (Tmean), maximum temperature (Tmax), log(Urban), log(Precipitation), and population density in influencing dengue incidence rates. However, further research is needed to gain a better understanding of the role of additional variables, such as immunity levels, awareness, and vector control measures, in the spread of dengue.

VectAbundance: a spatio-temporal database of Aedes mosquitoes observations

Modelling approaches play a crucial role in supporting local public health agencies by estimating and forecasting vector abundance and seasonality. However, the reliability of these models is contingent on the availability of standardized, high-quality data. Addressing this need, our study focuses on collecting and harmonizing egg count observations of the mosquito Aedes albopictus, obtained through ovitraps in monitoring and surveillance efforts across Albania, France, Italy, and Switzerland from 2010 to 2022. We processed the raw observations to obtain a continuous time series of ovitraps observations allowing for an extensive geographical and temporal coverage of Ae. albopictus population dynamics. The resulting post-processed observations are stored in the open-access database VectAbundance.This initiative addresses the critical need for accessible, high-quality data, enhancing the reliability of modelling efforts and bolstering public health preparedness.

The potential habitat and environmental fitness change of Aedes albopictus in Western Eurasia for 2081-2100

BACKGROUND OBJECTIVES

The range of Aedes albopictus, the most important vector mosquito in Western Eurasia is growing due to climate change. However, it is not known how it will influence the habitats occupied by the species and its environmental fitness within its future range.

METHODS

To study this question, the habitat characteristic of the mosquito was investigated for 2081-2100.

RESULTS

The models suggest a notable future spread of the mosquito in the direction of Northern Europe and the parallel northward and westward shift of the southern and eastern potential occurrences of the mosquito. The models suggest a notable increase in generation numbers in the warmest quarter, which can reach 4-5 generations in the peri-Mediterranean region. However, both the joint survival rate of larvae and pupae and the number of survival days of adults in the warmest quarter exhibit decreasing values, as does the potential disappearance of the mosquito in the southern regions of Europe and Asia Minor, along with the growing atmospheric CO2 concentration-based scenarios.

INTERPRETATION CONCLUSION

While in 1970-2000 Aedes albopictus mainly occupied the hot and warm summer temperate regions of Europe, the species will inhabit dominantly the cool summer temperate (oceanic) and the humid continental climate territories of North and North-Eastern Europe in 2081-2100.

Aedes albopictus distribution in Ibagué, Colombia: Potential risk of arboviral outbreaks

Introduction

Aedes albopictus is a vector for arboviruses, such as dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever. The first A. albopictus reports on the American continent date back to 1985. It has spread rapidly throughout Colombia since its first report in 1998 due to its ecological and physiological adaptation capability.

Objective

To determine A. albopictus distribution in the 13 communes of Ibagué, Colombia.

Materials and methods

Samples were collected between May and November 2022 in the 13 communes of Ibagué. Vacuum sampling and sweep-netting entomological nets were used in areas with abundant vegetation. The mosquitoes were transported to the Laboratorio de Investigaciones en Parasitología Tropical at the Universidad del Tolima for taxonomic determination.

Results

We identified 708 A. albopictus specimens distributed throughout Ibague’s 13 communes. The highest vector abundance occurred in communes 10, 11, 7, 8, 2, and 9; communes 3, 4, 5, 6, 12, and 13 had a relative abundance of around 3%, while commune 1 had 2% of relative abundance.

Conclusions

Aedes albopictus is distributed throughout all the communes of Ibague. Its dispersion has probably been favored by this region’s environmental and social conditions. We recommend annual monitoring of these vectors populations and molecular characterization of the found arboviruses. Ascertaining this mosquito’s distribution throughout the city will enable focusing entomological control strategies and preventing future arbovirus outbreaks.

Spatial and temporal analyses of the influences of meteorological and environmental factors on Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) population dynamics during the peak abundance period at a city scale

Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) is a major vector of multiple diseases. While vaccines have been developed, preventing these Aedes-borne diseases continues to primarily depend on monitoring and controlling the vector population. Despite increasing research on the impacts of various factors on Ae. albopictus population dynamics, there is still no consensus on how meteorological or environmental factors affect vector distribution. In this study, the relationships between mosquito abundance and meteorological and environmental indicators were examined at the town level based on data collected from July to September, the peak abundance period of 2019 in Shanghai. In addition to performing Poisson regression, we employed the geographically weighted Poisson regression model to account for spatial dependency and heterogeneity. The result showed that the environmental factors (notably human population density, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), socioeconomic deprivation, and road density) had more significant impacts than the meteorological variables in accounting for the spatial variation of mosquito abundance at a city scale. The dominant environmental variable differed in urban and rural places. Furthermore, our findings indicated that deprived townships are more susceptible to higher vector densities compared to non-deprived townships. Therefore, it is crucial not only to allocate more resources but also to increase attention towards controlling the vectors responsible for their transmission in these townships.

A systematic review of published literature on mosquito control action thresholds across the world

BACKGROUND

Despite the use of numerous methods of control measures, mosquito populations and mosquito-borne diseases are still increasing globally. Evidence-based action thresholds to initiate or intensify control activities have been identified as essential in reducing mosquito populations to required levels at the correct/optimal time. This systematic review was conducted to identify different mosquito control action thresholds existing across the world and associated surveillance and implementation characteristics.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Searches for literature published from 2010 up to 2021 were performed using two search engines, Google Scholar and PubMed Central, according to PRISMA guidelines. A set of inclusion/exclusion criteria were identified and of the 1,485 initial selections, only 87 were included in the final review. Thirty inclusions reported originally generated thresholds. Thirteen inclusions were with statistical models that seemed intended to be continuously utilized to test the exceedance of thresholds in a specific region. There was another set of 44 inclusions that solely mentioned previously generated thresholds. The inclusions with "epidemiological thresholds" outnumbered those with "entomological thresholds". Most of the inclusions came from Asia and those thresholds were targeted toward Aedes and dengue control. Overall, mosquito counts (adult and larval) and climatic variables (temperature and rainfall) were the most used parameters in thresholds. The associated surveillance and implementation characteristics of the identified thresholds are discussed here.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The review identified 87 publications with different mosquito control thresholds developed across the world and published during the last decade. Associated surveillance and implementation characteristics will help organize surveillance systems targeting the development and implementation of action thresholds, as well as direct awareness towards already existing thresholds for those with programs lacking available resources for comprehensive surveillance systems. The findings of the review highlight data gaps and areas of focus to fill in the action threshold compartment of the IVM toolbox.

Is Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) going to become homodynamic in Southern Europe in the next decades due to climate change?

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, competent vector of several arboviruses, poses significant impact on human health worldwide. Although global warming is a driver of A . albopictus range expansion, few studies focused on its effects on homodynamicity (i.e. the ability to breed all-year-round), a key factor of vectorial capacity and a primary condition for an Aedes-borne disease to become endemic in temperate areas. Data from a 4-year monitoring network set in Central Italy and records from weather stations were used to assess winter adult activity and weekly minimum temperatures. Winter oviposition occurred in 38 localities with a seasonal mean photoperiod of 9.7 : 14.3 (L : D) h. Positive collections (87) occurred with an average minimum temperature of the two and three weeks before sampling of approximately 4°C. According to these evidences and considering the climate projections of three global climate models and three shared socio-economic pathways for the next three 20-year periods (from 2021 to 2080), the minimum temperature of January will increase enough to allow an all-year-round oviposition of A . albopictus in several areas of the Mediterranean Basin. Due to vector homodynamicity, Aedes-borne diseases could become endemic in Southern Europe by the end of the twenty-first century, worsening the burden on human health.

The association between dengue case and climate: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Although previous research frequently indicates that climate factors impact dengue transmission, the results are inconsistent. Therefore, this systematic review and meta-analysis highlights and address the complex global health problems towards the human-environment interface and the inter-relationship between these variables. For this purpose, four online electronic databases were searched to conduct a systematic assessment of published studies reporting the association between dengue cases and climate between 2010 and 2022. The meta-analysis was conducted using random effects to assess correlation, publication bias and heterogeneity. The final assessment included eight studies for both systematic review and meta-analysis. A total of four meta-analyses were conducted to evaluate the correlation of dengue cases with climate variables, namely precipitation, temperature, minimum temperature and relative humidity. The highest correlation is observed for precipitation between 83 mm and 15 mm (r = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.31, 0.45), relative humidity between 60.5% and 88.7% (r = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.23, 0.37), minimum temperature between 6.5 °C and 21.4 °C (r = 0.28, 95% CI = 0.05, 0.48) and mean temperature between 21.0 °C and 29.8 °C (r = 0.07, 95% CI = -0.1, 0.24). Thus, the influence of climate variables on the magnitude of dengue cases in terms of their distribution, frequency, and prevailing variables was established and conceptualised. The results of this meta-analysis enable multidisciplinary collaboration to improve dengue surveillance, epidemiology, and prevention programmes.

Aedes albopictus abundance and phenology along an altitudinal gradient in Lazio region (central Italy)

Background

The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus (Skuse 1894), which is native to Southeast Asia, is among the top 100 invasive species worldwide and one of the most troubling vector species. It has become established in more than 20 European countries. Since its arrival in Italy in the 1990s, the species has colonized all the regions of the country, up to an altitude of 600 m. Nevertheless, no thorough investigation has ever been performed to confirm or extend its elevation limit (EL) in Italy.

Methods

To define the EL of Ae. albopictus and analyse its phenology along an altitudinal gradient, we carried out an investigation by means of ovitraps placed in Lazio region, central Italy. Sampling was performed on a weekly basis in 13 villages within five 200-m altitudinal ranges [0–1000 m above sea level (asl)], with the addition of higher localities to the species range whenever the species was recorded in the highest range.

Results

Aedes albopictus has colonized sites well beyond its known EL, with established populations at 900 m asl and positive ovitraps recorded at 1193 m asl. The relationship between egg abundance and elevation was described by an exponential decay regression, which predicted an EL for oviposition at 1015 m asl. In the active season, egg-laying started earlier at low altitude and ended earlier within the highest altitudinal range. Aedes albopictus abundance and activity period (number of days active) decreased, respectively, by 95% and 34% from the lowest to the highest altitudinal range.

Conclusions

Using data from the present study, the altitudinal limit of Ae. albopictus in central Italy was updated from 600 to 900 m asl. In addition, established populations were predicted to exist up to 1015 m asl. Considering that up to 99.5% of Lazio region’s inhabitants could potentially be affected by Aedes-borne virus outbreaks, the surveillance area for Ae. albopictus should be expanded accordingly. However, our results also indicate that Ae. albopictus surveillance programs need to be revised in order to harmonize the resources earmarked for these with the altitudinal changes in the phenology of this species.

Graphical abstract