Spatiotemporal Environmental Drivers of Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus in Central Florida: Towards a Predictive Model for a Lethal Disease

Powassan and other emerging neuroinvasive arboviruses in North America

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) represent a group of pathogens with increasing global relevance, some of which cause neuroinvasive disease. Transmitted by arthropod vectors and maintained by a variety of primary and amplifying hosts, epidemics are dependent on numerous environmental and anthropogenic factors. This review serves to highlight several important neuroinvasive arboviruses relevant to North America and discuss the neurologic presentations, diagnosis, outcomes, and future trends.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recent shifts in the epidemiology and ecology of arboviruses in North America include the divergence of arboviruses such as dengue and chikungunya from dependence on enzootic cycles, the geographical expansion of Oropouche virus, and the increasing incidence of some established North American arboviruses such as Powassan virus. Accurate identification of the factors contributing to arboviral outbreaks is critical to improve preventive public health measures. Similarly, further elucidating the relevant pathogen and host factors that determine neuroinvasiveness, neurotropism, and neurovirulence will be key to the development of successful vaccines and targeted therapeutics.

SUMMARY

Arboviruses are an important pathogen relevant to human disease. Familiarity with the presentations, diagnostic workup, treatment and preventive strategies, and expected course is critical for clinicians caring for these patients.

Virology, ecology, epidemiology, pathology, and treatment of eastern equine encephalitis

Eastern equine encephalitis (EEE) was one of the first-recognized neuroinvasive arboviral diseases in North America, and it remains the most lethal. Although EEE is known to have periodic spikes in infection rates, there is increasing evidence that it may be undergoing a change in its prevalence and its public health burden. Numerous factors shape the scope of EEE in humans, and there are important similarities with other emergent viral diseases that have surfaced or strengthened in recent years. Because environmental and ecological conditions that broadly influence the epidemiology of arboviral diseases also are changing, and the frequency, severity, and scope of outbreaks are expected to worsen, an expanded understanding of EEE will have untold importance in coming years. Here we review the factors shaping EEE transmission cycles and the conditions leading to outbreaks in humans from an updated, multidomain perspective. We also provide special consideration of factors shaping the virology, host-vector-environment relationships, and mechanisms of pathology and treatment as a reference for broadening audiences.

Dynamics of eastern equine encephalitis virus during the 2019 outbreak in the Northeast United States

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) causes a rare but severe disease in horses and humans and is maintained in an enzootic transmission cycle between songbirds and Culiseta melanura mosquitoes. In 2019, the largest EEEV outbreak in the United States for more than 50 years occurred, centered in the Northeast. To explore the dynamics of the outbreak, we sequenced 80 isolates of EEEV and combined them with existing genomic data. We found that, similar to previous years, cases were driven by multiple independent but short-lived virus introductions into the Northeast from Florida. Once in the Northeast, we found that Massachusetts was important for regional spread. We found no evidence of any changes in viral, human, or bird factors which would explain the increase in cases in 2019, although the ecology of EEEV is complex and further data is required to explore these in more detail. By using detailed mosquito surveillance data collected by Massachusetts and Connecticut, however, we found that the abundance of Cs. melanura was exceptionally high in 2019, as was the EEEV infection rate. We employed these mosquito data to build a negative binomial regression model and applied it to estimate early season risks of human or horse cases. We found that the month of first detection of EEEV in mosquito surveillance data and vector index (abundance multiplied by infection rate) were predictive of cases later in the season. We therefore highlight the importance of mosquito surveillance programs as an integral part of public health and disease control.

Dynamics of Eastern equine encephalitis virus during the 2019 outbreak in the Northeast United States

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) causes a rare but severe disease in horses and humans, and is maintained in an enzootic transmission cycle between songbirds and Culiseta melanura mosquitoes. In 2019, the largest EEEV outbreak in the United States for more than 50 years occurred, centered in the Northeast. To explore the dynamics of the outbreak, we sequenced 80 isolates of EEEV and combined them with existing genomic data. We found that, like previous years, cases were driven by frequent short-lived virus introductions into the Northeast from Florida. Once in the Northeast, we found that Massachusetts was important for regional spread. We found no evidence of any changes in viral, human, or bird factors which would explain the increase in cases in 2019. By using detailed mosquito surveillance data collected by Massachusetts and Connecticut, however, we found that the abundance of Cs. melanura was exceptionally high in 2019, as was the EEEV infection rate. We employed these mosquito data to build a negative binomial regression model and applied it to estimate early season risks of human or horse cases. We found that the month of first detection of EEEV in mosquito surveillance data and vector index (abundance multiplied by infection rate) were predictive of cases later in the season. We therefore highlight the importance of mosquito surveillance programs as an integral part of public health and disease control.