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Modeling the Cost-Effectiveness of Interventions to Prevent Plague in Madagascar. Trop Med Infect Dis 2021; 6:tropicalmed6020101. [PMID: 34208006 PMCID: PMC8293333 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed6020101] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2021] [Revised: 06/08/2021] [Accepted: 06/09/2021] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Plague (Yersinia pestis) remains endemic in certain parts of the world. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of plague control interventions recommended by the World Health Organization with particular consideration to intervention coverage and timing. We developed a dynamic model of the spread of plague between interacting populations of humans, rats, and fleas and performed a cost-effectiveness analysis calibrated to a 2017 Madagascar outbreak. We assessed three interventions alone and in combination: expanded access to antibiotic treatment with doxycycline, mass distribution of doxycycline prophylaxis, and mass distribution of malathion. We varied intervention timing and coverage levels. We calculated costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from a healthcare perspective. The preferred intervention, using a cost-effectiveness threshold of $1350/QALY (GDP per capita in Madagascar), was expanded access to antibiotic treatment with doxycycline with 100% coverage starting immediately after the first reported case, gaining 543 QALYs at an incremental cost of $1023/QALY gained. Sensitivity analyses support expanded access to antibiotic treatment and leave open the possibility that mass distribution of doxycycline prophylaxis or mass distribution of malathion could be cost-effective. Our analysis highlights the potential for rapid expansion of access to doxycycline upon recognition of plague outbreaks to cost-effectively prevent future large-scale plague outbreaks and highlights the importance of intervention timing.
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Poché DM, Wang HH, Grant WE. Visceral leishmaniasis on the Indian Subcontinent: Efficacy of fipronil-based cattle treatment in controlling sand fly populations is dependent on specific aspects of sand fly ecology. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2020; 14:e0008011. [PMID: 32069283 PMCID: PMC7048295 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/02/2019] [Revised: 02/28/2020] [Accepted: 12/22/2019] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a deadly disease transmitted by the sand fly Phlebotomus argentipes on the Indian subcontinent, with a promising means of vector control being orally treating cattle with fipronil-based drugs. While prior research investigating the dynamic relationship between timing of fipronil-based control schemes and the seasonality of sand flies provides insights into potential of treatment on a large scale, ecological uncertainties remain. We investigated how uncertainties associated with sand fly ecology might affect our ability to assess efficacy of fipronil-based control schemes. To do this, we used a previously-described, individual-based, stochastic sand fly model to quantify how uncertainties associated with 1) the percentage of female sand flies taking blood meals from cattle, and 2) the percentage of female sand flies ovipositing in organic matter containing feces from treated cattle might impact the efficacy of fipronil-based sand fly control schemes. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Assuming no prior knowledge of sand fly blood meal and oviposition sites, the probabilities of achieving effective sand fly population reduction with treatments performed 3, 6 and 12 times per year were ≈5-22%, ≈27-36%, and ≈46-54%, respectively. Assuming ≥50% of sand flies feed on cattle, probabilities of achieving efficacious control increased to ≈8-31%, ≈15-42%, and ≈52-65%. Assuming also that ≥50% of sand flies oviposit in cattle feces, the above probabilities increased further to ≈14-53%, ≈31-81%, and ≈89-97%. CONCLUSIONS Our assessments of the efficacy of fipronil-based cattle treatments in controlling sand fly populations depend on our assumptions regarding key aspects of sand fly ecology. Assessments are most sensitive to assumptions concerning the percentage of sand flies ovipositing in feces of treated cattle, thus emphasizing the importance of identifying sand fly oviposition sites. Our results place the evaluation of fipronil-based cattle treatment within a broader ecological context, which could aid in the planning and execution of a largescale field trial.
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Affiliation(s)
- David M. Poché
- Genesis Laboratories, Inc., Wellington, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Hsiao-Hsuan Wang
- Ecological Systems Laboratory, Department of Wildlife and Fisheries Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, United States of America
| | - William E. Grant
- Ecological Systems Laboratory, Department of Wildlife and Fisheries Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, United States of America
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Field assessment of insecticide dusting and bait station treatment impact against rodent flea and house flea species in the Madagascar plague context. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2019; 13:e0007604. [PMID: 31386661 PMCID: PMC6697362 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007604] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2019] [Revised: 08/16/2019] [Accepted: 07/04/2019] [Indexed: 01/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Bubonic is the most prevalent plague form in Madagascar. Indoor ground application of insecticide dust is the conventional method used to control potentially infected rodent fleas that transmit the plague bacterium from rodents to humans. The use of bait stations is an alternative approach for vector control during plague epidemics, as well as a preventive control method during non-epidemic seasons. Bait stations have many advantages, principally by reducing the amount of insecticide used, lowering the cost of the treatment and minimizing insecticide exposure in the environment. A previous study reported promising results on controlling simultaneously the reservoir and vectors, when slow-acting rodenticide was incorporated in bait stations called “Boîtes de Kartman”. However, little evidence of an effective control of the fleas prior to the elimination of rodents was found. In this study, we evaluated bait stations containing insecticide powder and non-toxic attractive rodent bait for their potential to control rat fleas. Its efficacy was compared to the standard method. The impact of both methods on indoor and outdoor rodent fleas, as well as the human household flea Pulex irritans were analyzed at different time points after treatments. Bait stations did not cause any significant immediate or delayed reduction of rat fleas and increasing the number of operational bait stations per household did not significantly improve their efficacy. Insecticide ground dusting appeared to be the most efficient method to control indoor rat fleas. Both methods appeared to have little impact on the density of outdoor rat fleas and human fleas. These results demonstrate limited effectiveness for bait stations and encourage the maintenance of insecticide dusting as a first-line control strategy in case of epidemic emergence of plague, when immediate effect on rodent fleas is needed. Recommendations are given to improve the efficacy of the bait station method. Insecticide ground dusting inside houses is the recommended measure to control rat fleas responsible for bubonic plague transmission. The main inconvenience of this method is the direct contact of houseowners to the toxic insecticide dust and spillage in environment. A bait station approach, where the insecticide is confined in a box or tunnel containing rodent attractant, seems to be a valuable complementary or alternative vector control tool. However currently, little is known about its real efficacy on reducing or eliminating fleas harbored by rats. Guidelines regarding its implementation (density and duration of use) as vector control tool are lacking. Those questions were addressed during a field trial study, where bait stations were deployed at different densities per household and followed up at different time points. The efficacy of bait station was compared to the standard method. The present study allowed to demonstrate that bait station approach requires more improvements to be efficient. Meanwhile, insecticide ground dusting is still recommended for to control rat fleas during epidemics.
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Jones SD, Atshabar B, Schmid BV, Zuk M, Amramina A, Stenseth NC. Living with plague: Lessons from the Soviet Union's antiplague system. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2019; 116:9155-9163. [PMID: 31061115 PMCID: PMC6511024 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1817339116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Zoonoses, such as plague, are primarily animal diseases that spill over into human populations. While the goal of eradicating such diseases is enticing, historical experience validates abandoning eradication in favor of ecologically based control strategies (which reduce morbidity and mortality to a locally accepted risk level). During the 20th century, one of the most extensive plague-eradication efforts in recorded history was undertaken to enable large-scale changes in land use in the former Soviet Union (including vast areas of central Asia). Despite expending tremendous resources in its attempt to eradicate plague, the Soviet antiplague response gradually abandoned the goal of eradication in favor of plague control linked with developing basic knowledge of plague ecology. Drawing from this experience, we combine new gray-literature sources, historical and recent research, and fieldwork to outline best practices for the control of spillover from zoonoses while minimally disrupting wildlife ecosystems, and we briefly compare the Soviet case with that of endemic plague in the western United States. We argue for the allocation of sufficient resources to maintain ongoing local surveillance, education, and targeted control measures; to incorporate novel technologies selectively; and to use ecological research to inform developing landscape-based models for transmission interruption. We conclude that living with emergent and reemergent zoonotic diseases-switching to control-opens wider possibilities for interrupting spillover while preserving natural ecosystems, encouraging adaptation to local conditions, and using technological tools judiciously and in a cost-effective way.
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Affiliation(s)
- Susan D Jones
- Department of Ecology, Evolution & Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108;
- Program in History of Science & Technology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108
| | - Bakyt Atshabar
- M. Aikimbayev's Kazakh Scientific Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, Ministry of Public Health, Almaty 480074, Republic of Kazakhstan
| | - Boris V Schmid
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, N-01316 Oslo, Norway
| | - Marlene Zuk
- Department of Ecology, Evolution & Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108
| | - Anna Amramina
- Program in History of Science & Technology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108
| | - Nils Chr Stenseth
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, N-01316 Oslo, Norway;
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
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Poché DM, Torres-Poché Z, Yeszhanov A, Poché RM, Belyaev A, Dvořák V, Sayakova Z, Polyakova L, Aimakhanov B. Field evaluation of a 0.005% fipronil bait, orally administered to Rhombomys opimus, for control of fleas (Siphonaptera: Pulicidae) and phlebotomine sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in the Central Asian Republic of Kazakhstan. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018; 12:e0006630. [PMID: 30044788 PMCID: PMC6059381 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006630] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2018] [Accepted: 06/22/2018] [Indexed: 01/14/2023] Open
Abstract
Plague (Yersinia pestis) and zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (Leishmania major) are two rodent-associated diseases which are vectored by fleas and phlebotomine sand flies, respectively. In Central Asia, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) serves as the primary reservoir for both diseases in most natural foci. The systemic insecticide fipronil has been previously shown to be highly effective in controlling fleas and sand flies. However, the impact of a fipronil-based rodent bait, on flea and sand fly abundance, has never been reported in Central Asia. A field trial was conducted in southeastern Kazakhstan to evaluate the efficacy of a 0.005% fipronil bait, applied to gerbil burrows for oral uptake, in reducing Xenopsylla spp. flea and Phlebotomus spp. sand fly abundance. All active gerbil burrows within the treated area were presented with ~120 g of 0.005% fipronil grain bait twice during late spring/early summer (June 16, June 21). In total, 120 occupied and 14 visited gerbil colonies were surveyed and treated, and the resulting application rate was minimal (~0.006 mg fipronil/m2). The bait resulted in 100% reduction in Xenopsylla spp. flea abundance at 80-days post-treatment. Gravid sand flies were reduced ~72% and 100% during treatment and at week-3 post-treatment, respectively. However, noticeable sand fly reduction did not occur after week-3 and results suggest environmental factors also influenced abundance significantly. In conclusion, fipronil bait, applied in southeastern Kazakhstan, has the potential to reduce or potentially eliminate Xenopsylla spp. fleas if applied at least every 80-days, but may need to be applied at higher frequency to significantly reduce the oviposition rate of Phlebotomus spp. sand flies. Fipronil-based bait may provide a means of controlling blood-feeding vectors, subsequently reducing disease risk, in Central Asia and other affected regions globally.
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Affiliation(s)
- David M. Poché
- Genesis Laboratories, Inc. Wellington, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Zaria Torres-Poché
- Genesis Laboratories, Inc. Wellington, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Aidyn Yeszhanov
- M. Aikimbaev’s Kazakh Science Centre for Quarantine of Zoonotic Diseases. Almaty, Kazakhstan
| | - Richard M. Poché
- Genesis Laboratories, Inc. Wellington, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Alexander Belyaev
- M. Aikimbaev’s Kazakh Science Centre for Quarantine of Zoonotic Diseases. Almaty, Kazakhstan
| | - Vit Dvořák
- Department of Parasitology, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Zaure Sayakova
- M. Aikimbaev’s Kazakh Science Centre for Quarantine of Zoonotic Diseases. Almaty, Kazakhstan
| | - Larisa Polyakova
- Genesis Laboratories, Inc. Wellington, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Batirbek Aimakhanov
- M. Aikimbaev’s Kazakh Science Centre for Quarantine of Zoonotic Diseases. Almaty, Kazakhstan
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Miarinjara A, Vergain J, Kavaruganda JM, Rajerison M, Boyer S. Plague risk in vulnerable community: assessment of Xenopsylla cheopis susceptibility to insecticides in Malagasy prisons. Infect Dis Poverty 2017; 6:141. [PMID: 29110719 PMCID: PMC5674827 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-017-0356-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2017] [Accepted: 08/29/2017] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Prisons in Madagascar are at high risk of plague outbreak. Occurrence of plague epidemic in prisons can cause significant episode of urban plague through the movement of potentially infected humans, rodents and fleas. Rodent and flea controls are essential in plague prevention, by reducing human contact with plague reservoirs and vectors. Insecticide treatment is the key step available for the control of rat fleas which transmit the disease from infected rodents to human. The implementation of an adapted flea control strategy should rely on the insecticide susceptibility status of the targeted population. For the purpose of plague prevention campaign in prisons, we conducted insecticide resistance survey on Xenopsylla cheopis, the rat flea. METHODS Fleas were collected on rats caught in six prisons of Madagascar. They were exposed to insecticide treated filter papers and mortality was recorded following World Health Organization protocol. RESULTS The fleas collected in the prisons had different resistance patterns, while a high level of resistance to insecticides tested was described in the Antanimora prison, located in the heart of Antananarivo, the capital of Madagascar. CONCLUSIONS This finding is alarming in the context of public health, knowing that the effectiveness of flea control could be jeopardized by insecticide resistance. In order to establish more accurate rat fleas control in prisons, the main recommendations are based on continuous monitoring insecticide susceptibility of flea, insecticide rotation, and the development of a new method for flea control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adélaïde Miarinjara
- Unité d'Entomologie Médicale, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Ambatofotsikely, 101, Antananarivo, PO box 1274, Madagascar. .,Ecole Doctorale Sciences de la Vie et de l'Environnement, Université d'Antananarivo, Antananarivo, Madagascar.
| | - Jean Vergain
- Délégation Régionale pour l'Océan Indien, Comité International de la Croix-Rouge (CICR), 112, Rue Rainandriamampandry, Lot II B 16 - Faravohitra, 101, Antananarivo, Madagascar
| | - Jean Marcel Kavaruganda
- Délégation Régionale pour l'Océan Indien, Comité International de la Croix-Rouge (CICR), 112, Rue Rainandriamampandry, Lot II B 16 - Faravohitra, 101, Antananarivo, Madagascar
| | - Minoarisoa Rajerison
- Unité Peste, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Ambatofotsikely, 101, Antananarivo, PO box 1274, Madagascar
| | - Sébastien Boyer
- Unité d'Entomologie Médicale, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Ambatofotsikely, 101, Antananarivo, PO box 1274, Madagascar
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