Impact of HIV on Anal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Rates in the United States, 2001-2015

Commonly Drawn Immunologic and Inflammatory Markers as Risk Predictors for Anal Cancer in Veterans Living With HIV

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to determine if immune inflammatory markers (neutrophil lymphocyte ratio [NLR], platelet lymphocyte ratio [PLR], and prognostic nutritional index [PNI]) correlate with anal cancer risk in people living with HIV and to compare these markers with the CD4/CD8 ratio.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This is a regional retrospective cohort study of veterans living with HIV who were screened for or diagnosed with anal neoplasia or cancer from 2001 to 2019. The NLR, PLR, PNI, and CD4/CD8 ratio within 1 year of anal pathology results were computed. Patients with anal cancer were compared to patients without anal cancer. Regression modeling was used to estimate the odds of developing anal cancer.

RESULTS

Three hundred thirty-four patients were included (37 with anal cancer, 297 without anal cancer). In patients with anal cancer, NLR and PLR were higher (2.17 vs 1.69, p = .04; 140 vs 110, p = .02, respectively), while PNI and CD4/CD8 ratio were lower (44.65 vs 50.01, p < .001; 0.35 vs 0.80, p < .001, respectively). On multivariate logistic regression modeling, only PNI (odds ratio, 0.90; p = .001) and CD4/CD8 ratio (odds ratio, 0.05; p < .001) were associated with increased anal cancer risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Although NLR and PLR independently correlate with anal cancer risk, when controlling for other risk predictors, only PNI and CD4/CD8 ratio were statistically significant biomarkers for anal cancer. The CD4/CD8 ratio is the strongest immune inflammatory marker that predicts risk of anal cancer among veterans living with HIV.

Sex Differences in Cancer Incidence Rates by Race and Ethnicity: Results from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Registry (2000-2019)

Men have 2-3 times the rate of most non-sex-specific cancers compared to women, but whether this is due to differences in biological or environmental factors remains poorly understood. This study investigated sex differences in cancer incidence by race and ethnicity. Cancer incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) program (2000-2019) were used to calculate male-to-female incidence rate ratios (MF IRRs) for each cancer site, stratified by race and ethnicity, and age-standardized to the 2000 U.S. population for individuals ages ≥ 20 years. Among 49 cancer sites, 44 showed male predominance (MF IRR > 1), with seven inconsistencies across race and ethnicity, including cancers of the lip, tongue, hypopharynx, retroperitoneum, larynx, pleura cancers, and Kaposi sarcoma. Four cancers exhibited a female predominance (MF IRR < 1), with only gallbladder and anus cancers varying by race and ethnicity. The MF IRRs for cancer of the cranial nerves and other nervous system malignancies showed no sex differences and were consistent (MF IRR = 1) across race and ethnicity. The MF IRRs for most cancers were consistent across race and ethnicity, implying that biological etiologies are driving the observed sex difference. The lack of MF IRR variability by race and ethnicity suggests a minimal impact of environmental exposure on sex differences in cancer incidence. Further research is needed to identify biological drivers of sex differences in cancer etiology.

Autoimmune disease and the risk of anal cancer in the US population aged 66 years and over

BACKGROUND

In the United States, anal squamous cell carcinoma rates have increased rapidly, particularly among women 50 or older than 66 years of age. As immunosuppression is associated with increased risk, autoimmune conditions may be associated with greater risk of anal squamous cell carcinoma.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based, case-control study using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare data (2000-2017). Anal squamous cell carcinoma cases (n = 4505) were matched to 200 000 cancer-free controls. Using multivariable logistic regression, we calculated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between 47 autoimmune conditions diagnosed before selection, identified using Medicare claims, and anal squamous cell carcinoma. The Bonferroni threshold was used to correct for multiple comparisons. Population attributable fractions were calculated for conditions nominally associated with anal squamous cell carcinoma.

RESULTS

In total, 18% of anal squamous cell carcinoma cases and 15% of cancer-free controls had a diagnosed autoimmune condition. Any autoimmune condition was associated with an increased risk of anal squamous cell carcinoma (OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.02 to 1.21; population attributable fraction = 1.8%). Anal squamous cell carcinoma was associated with systemic lupus erythematosus (OR = 1.79, 95% CI = 1.32 to 2.42; population attributable fraction = 0.4%) and nominally associated (P < .05) with sarcoidosis (OR = 2.09, 95% CI = 1.30 to 3.37; population-attributable fraction = 0.2%) and psoriasis (OR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.06 to 1.56; population attributable fraction = 0.5%). Stratified by sex, only women showed statistically significant associations for systemic lupus erythematosus (OR = 1.97, 95% CI = 1.46 to 2.68). Statistically significant interaction was observed by sex for psoriasis (men vs women: OR = 1.68 [95% CI = 1.03 to 4.28] vs OR = 1.12 [95% CI = 0.88 to 1.43]) and polymyalgia rheumatica (OR = 0.33 [95% CI = 0.12 to 0.89] vs OR = 0.99 [95% CI = 0.75 to 1.30]).

CONCLUSION

Systemic lupus erythematosus, sarcoidosis, and psoriasis were associated with a moderately increased risk of anal squamous cell carcinoma. Given these conditions' rarity and moderate associations with anal squamous cell carcinoma, autoimmune diseases cannot explain the rising trend in this disease.

Human papillomavirus-associated anal squamous cell carcinoma: sociodemographic, geographic, and county-level economic trends in incidence rates-United States, 2001-2019

BACKGROUND

Incidence of anal squamous cell carcinoma is increasing, but vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) and removal of precancerous anal lesions could prevent new cases. The overall HPV-associated cancer incidence is reported to be higher in rural populations and in counties with lower economic status. We assessed these differences specifically for HPV-associated anal squamous cell carcinoma and described the geographic, county-level economic, and sociodemographic variations in incidence rates and trends.

METHODS

We analyzed data from the US Cancer Statistics to assess age-standardized incidence rates of HPV-associated squamous cell carcinomas among adults aged 18 years and older from 2001 to 2019. We calculated rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals to examine differences in incidence rates. We also quantified changes in incidence rates over time using joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

From 2001 to 2019, 72 421 new cases of HPV-associated anal squamous cell carcinoma were diagnosed among women (2.8 per 100 000) and 37 147 among men (1.7 per 100 000). Age-standardized incidence rates were higher in the South compared with other census regions and in counties ranked in the bottom 25% and 25%-75% economically than in the top 25%. The overall incidence rate increased in women but remained stable in men during 2009-2019. Incidence rates increased in adults aged 50 years and older but decreased among those aged 40-44 years from 2001 to 2019 in women and from 2007 to 2019 in men.

CONCLUSIONS

There were inequities in HPV-associated anal squamous cell carcinoma incidence by geographic and county-level economic characteristics. Failure to improve vaccine and treatment equity may widen existing disparities.

Severe anal intraepithelial neoplasia trends and subsequent invasive anal cancer in the United States

BACKGROUND

Anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III is a precursor to squamous cell carcinoma of the anus for which rates are nearly 20-fold higher in people with HIV than in the general population in the United States. We describe trends in anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III diagnosis and risk of squamous cell carcinoma of the anus following anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III by HIV status and sex.

METHODS

We used data from a population-based linkage between cancer and HIV registries in 11 US states; Puerto Rico; and Washington, DC, during 1996-2019. We identified all individuals with a diagnosis of anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III and determined their HIV status. We estimated the average annual percentage change of anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III using Poisson regression stratified by HIV status and sex. We estimated the 5-year cumulative incidence of squamous cell carcinoma of the anus following an anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III diagnosis stratified by sex, HIV status, and prior AIDS diagnosis.

RESULTS

Among people with HIV, average annual percentage changes for anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III were 15% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 12% to 17%) per year among females and 12% (95% CI = 11% to 14%) among males. Average annual percentage changes for those without HIV were 8% (95% CI = 7% to 8%) for females and 8% (95% CI = 6% to 9%) for males. Among people with HIV, a prior AIDS diagnosis was associated with a 2.7-fold (95% CI = 2.23 to 3.40) and 1.9-fold (95% CI = 1.72 to 2.02) increased risk of anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III diagnosis for females and males, respectively. Five-year cumulative incidence of squamous cell carcinoma of the anus following anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III for people with HIV with a prior AIDS diagnosis were 3.4% and 3.7% for females and males, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Rates of anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III diagnoses have increased since 1996, particularly for people with HIV, likely influenced by increased screening. A prior AIDS diagnosis was strongly associated with risk of anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III diagnosis.

Survival by sex and HIV status in patients with anal cancer in the USA between 2001 and 2019: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The risk of anal cancer is increased among people with HIV, particularly men who have sex with men. Estimating survival by HIV status and sex and identifying groups at high risk is crucial for documenting prognostic differences between populations. We aimed to compare all-cause and anal cancer-specific survival in patients with anal cancer with and without HIV, stratified by sex, and to identify predictors of survival, stratified by HIV status.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, we used data from the HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study of 13 population-based HIV and cancer registries throughout the USA. We included individuals aged 20-79 years diagnosed with invasive anal cancer between 2001 and 2019. To estimate associations between HIV status and both all-cause and anal cancer-specific mortality overall, we used Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for year of and age at diagnosis, sex, race and ethnicity, histology, cancer stage, region, and treatment. We also calculated sex-specific adjusted hazard ratios (HRs). By HIV status, we identified characteristics associated with mortality. Models among people with HIV were further adjusted for AIDS status and HIV transmission risk group.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 31, 2019, 1161 (43·6%) of 2662 patients with anal cancer and HIV and 7722 (35·4%) of 21 824 patients without HIV died. HIV was associated with a 1·35 times (95% CI 1·24-1·47) increase in all-cause mortality among male patients and a 2·47 times (2·10-2·90) increase among female patients. Among patients with HIV, all-cause mortality was increased among non-Hispanic Black individuals (adjusted HR 1·19, 95% CI 1·04-1·38), people with AIDS (1·36, 1·10-1·68), people who inject drugs (PWID; 1·49, 1·17-1·90), patients with adenocarcinoma (2·74, 1·82-4·13), and those with no or unknown surgery treatment (1·34, 1·18-1·53). HIV was associated with anal cancer-specific mortality among female patients only (1·52, 1·18-1·97). Among patients with HIV, anal cancer-specific mortality was increased among patients with adenocarcinoma (3·29, 1·89-5·72), those with no or unknown treatment (1·59, 1·17-2·17), and PWID (1·60, 1·05-2·44).

INTERPRETATION

HIV was associated with all-cause mortality among patients with anal cancer, especially women. Anal cancer-specific mortality was elevated among female patients with HIV. As screening for anal cancer becomes more widespread, examining the effects of screening on survival by HIV status and sex is crucial.

FUNDING

US National Cancer Institute Intramural Research Program.

RNA-seq analysis identifies transcriptomic profiles associated with anal cancer recurrence among people living with HIV

BACKGROUND

Chemoradiation therapy (CRT) is the standard of care for squamous cell carcinoma of the anus (SCCA), the most common type of anal cancer. However, approximately one fourth of patients still relapse after CRT.

METHODS

We used RNA-sequencing technology to characterize coding and non-coding transcripts in tumor tissues from CRT-treated SCCA patients and compare them between 9 non-recurrent and 3 recurrent cases. RNA was extracted from FFPE tissues. Library preparations for RNA-sequencing were created using SMARTer Stranded Total RNA-Seq Kit. All libraries were pooled and sequenced on a NovaSeq 6000. Function and pathway enrichment analysis was performed with Metascape and enrichment of gene ontology (GO) was performed with Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA).

RESULTS

There were 449 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) observed (390 mRNA, 12 miRNA, 17 lincRNA and 18 snRNA) between the two groups. We identified a core of upregulated genes (IL4, CD40LG, ICAM2, HLA-I (HLA-A, HLA-C) and HLA-II (HLA-DQA1, HLA-DRB5) in the non-recurrent SCCA tissue enriching to the gene ontology term 'allograft rejection', which suggests a CD4+ T cell driven immune response. Conversely, in the recurrent tissues, keratin (KRT1, 10, 12, 20) and hedgehog signaling pathway (PTCH2) genes involved in 'Epidermis Development,', were significantly upregulated. We identified miR-4316, that inhibit tumor proliferation and migration by repressing vascular endothelial growth factors, as being upregulated in non-recurrent SCCA. On the contrary, lncRNA-SOX21-AS1, implicated in the progression of many other cancers, was also found to be more common in our recurrent compared to non-recurrent SCCA.

Our study identified key host factors which may drive the recurrence of SCCA and warrants further studies to understand the mechanism and evaluate their potential use in personalized treatment.Key MessageOur study used RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) to identify pivotal factors in coding and non-coding transcripts which differentiate between patients at risk for recurrent anal cancer after treatment. There were 449 differentially expressed genes (390 mRNA, 12 miRNA, 17 lincRNA and 18 snRNA) between 9 non-recurrent and 3 recurrent squamous cell carcinoma of anus (SCCA) tissues. The enrichment of genes related to allograft rejection was observed in the non-recurrent SCCA tissues, while the enrichment of genes related to epidermis development was positively linked with recurrent SCCA tissues.

Cumulative incidence of anal cancer since HIV or AIDS diagnosis in the United States

Treatment of screen-detected anal high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions has been shown to effectively reduce the incidence of invasive anal cancer in people with HIV. We provide population-based estimates of cumulative incidence of anal cancer by risk group and age at HIV or AIDS diagnosis. The 0- to 10-year cumulative incidence of anal cancer for men who have sex with men and are younger than 30 years of age at HIV diagnosis was 0.17% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.13% to 0.20%) compared with 0.04% (95% CI = 0.02% to 0.06%) in other men and 0.03% (95% CI = 0.01% to 0.04%) in women. For men who have sex with men and have a diagnosis of AIDS and are younger than 30 years of age, the 0- to 10-year cumulative incidence was 0.35% (95% CI = 0.28% to 0.41%). Among people with HIV, men who have sex with men are at the greatest risk of anal cancer, and those with a diagnosis of AIDS had higher risk than those without AIDS. These estimates may inform recommendations for priority populations that could benefit most from anal cancer screening and treatment.

Anal Cancer and Anal Cancer Screening

This chapter provides an overview of anal cancer and contemporary approaches for anal precancer detection, beginning with a discussion of the biology and natural history of anal squamous cell carcinoma, the predominant human papillomavirus -associated histologic subtype of anal cancer. This section is followed by a description of the epidemiology of anal cancer, including trends in incidence and mortality, a discussion of populations with elevated risk for anal cancer and an overview of associated risk factors. The remainder of the chapter provides the most up-to-date evidence on tools and approaches for anal cancer prevention, screening, and early detection; including, the role of human papillomavirus vaccination for primary prevention; anal cytology, high resolution anoscopy and novel biomarkers for secondary prevention; and digital anal-rectal examination for early detection.

Human Papillomavirus-Associated Anal Cancer Incidence and Burden Among US Men, According to Sexual Orientation, Human Immunodeficiency Virus Status, and Age

BACKGROUND

Men who have sex with men (MSM) without HIV are known to be at elevated relative risk for Human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated anal cancer in comparison to men who have sex with women (MSW), but are poorly characterized in terms of anal cancer incidence due to absence of reporting of sexual behavior/identity at a population-level.

METHODS

By combining age-specific statistics from multiple data sources (anal cancer incidence among all males; anal cancer incidence among MSM and MSW with HIV; population size of men with HIV by sexual orientation), we developed a mathematical model to estimate anal cancer incidence, annual number of cases, and proportion by (a) sexual orientation (MSM versus MSW), (b) HIV status, and (c) age (<30, 30-44, 45-59, and ≥60 years).

RESULTS

Anal cancer incidence (per 100 000) among MSM without HIV was 1.4 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 0.6 to 2.3), 17.6 (95% UI = 13.8-23.5), and 33.9 (95% UI = 28.3-42.3), at ages 30-44, 45-59 and ≥60 years, respectively. 19.1% of all male anal cancer occurred in MSM without HIV, increasing from 4% of anal cancer diagnosed at 30-44 years to 24% at ≥60 years; 54.3% occurred in MSW without HIV (increasing from 13% at age 30-44 to 67% at >60 years), and the remaining 26.6% in men (MSM and MSW combined) with HIV (decreasing from 83% at age 30-44 to 9% at >60 years).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings should inform anal cancer prevention recommendations in male risk groups, including, for the first time, for the important group of MSM without HIV.

Anal Intraepithelial Neoplasia and Anal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: Updates From the Last 3 Years

ABSTRACT

In the last 3 years, new and relevant information has been published on anal cancer and anal precancerous lesions epidemiology, screening, treatment, and vaccination. This information will likely change prevention and treatment strategies for these patients in the upcoming years.

State Variation in Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Anus Incidence and Mortality, and Association With HIV/AIDS and Smoking in the United States

PURPOSE

Squamous cell carcinoma of the anus (SCCA) incidence and mortality rates are rising in the United States. Understanding state-level incidence and mortality patterns and associations with smoking and AIDS prevalence (key risk factors) could help unravel disparities and provide etiologic clues.

METHODS

Using the US Cancer Statistics and the National Center for Health Statistics data sets, we estimated state-level SCCA incidence and mortality rates. Rate ratios (RRs) were calculated to compare incidence and mortality in 2014-2018 versus 2001-2005. The correlations between SCCA incidence with current smoking (from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System) and AIDS (from the HIV Surveillance system) prevalence were evaluated using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient.

RESULTS

Nationally, SCCA incidence and mortality rates (per 100,000) increased among men (incidence, 2.29-3.36, mortality, 0.46-0.74) and women (incidence, 3.88-6.30, mortality, 0.65-1.02) age ≥ 50 years, but decreased among men age < 50 years and were stable among similar-aged women. In state-level analysis, a marked increase in incidence (≥ 1.5-fold for men and ≥ two-fold for women) and mortality (≥ two-fold) for persons age ≥ 50 years was largely concentrated in the Midwestern and Southeastern states. State-level SCCA incidence rates in recent years (2014-2018) among men were correlated (r = 0.47, P < .001) with state-level AIDS prevalence patterns. For women, a correlation was observed between state-level SCCA incidence rates and smoking prevalence (r = 0.49, P < .001).

CONCLUSION

During 2001-2005 to 2014-2018, SCCA incidence and mortality nearly doubled among men and women age ≥ 50 years living in Midwest and Southeast. State variation in AIDS and smoking patterns may explain variation in SCCA incidence. Improved and targeted prevention is needed to combat the rise in SCCA incidence and mitigate magnifying geographic disparities.