Designing for caregiving networks: a case study of primary caregivers of children with medical complexity

OBJECTIVE

The study aimed to characterize the experiences of primary caregivers of children with medical complexity (CMC) in engaging with other members of the child's caregiving network, thereby informing the design of health information technology (IT) for the caregiving network. Caregiving networks include friends, family, community members, and other trusted individuals who provide resources, information, health, or childcare.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We performed a secondary analysis of two qualitative studies. Primary studies conducted semi-structured interviews (n = 50) with family caregivers of CMC. Interviews were held in the Midwest (n = 30) and the mid-Atlantic region (n = 20). Interviews were transcribed verbatim for thematic analysis. Emergent themes were mapped to implications for the design of future health IT.

RESULTS

Thematic analysis identified 8 themes characterizing a wide range of primary caregivers' experiences in constructing, managing, and ensuring high-quality care delivery across the caregiving network.

DISCUSSION

Findings evidence a critical need to create flexible and customizable tools designed to support hiring/training processes, coordinating daily care across the caregiving network, communicating changing needs and care updates across the caregiving network, and creating contingency plans for instances where caregivers are unavailable to provide care to the CMC. Informaticists should additionally design accessible platforms that allow primary caregivers to connect with and learn from other caregivers while minimizing exposure to sensitive or emotional content as indicated by the user.

CONCLUSION

This article contributes to the design of health IT for CMC caregiving networks by uncovering previously underrecognized needs and experiences of CMC primary caregivers and drawing direct connections to design implications.

High prevalence of ceftriaxone-resistant and XDR Neisseria gonorrhoeae in several cities of Cambodia, 2022-23: WHO Enhanced Gonococcal Antimicrobial Surveillance Programme (EGASP)

Objectives

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Neisseria gonorrhoeae is a global public health concern. Ceftriaxone is the last effective and recommended option for empirical gonorrhoea therapy worldwide, but several ceftriaxone-resistant cases linked to Asia have been reported internationally. During January 2022-June 2023, the WHO Enhanced Gonococcal Antimicrobial Surveillance Programme (EGASP) investigated N. gonorrhoeae AMR and epidemiological factors in patients from 10 clinical sentinel sites in Cambodia.

Methods

Urethral swabs from males with urethral discharge were cultured. ETEST determined the MIC of five antimicrobials, and EGASP MIC alert values and EUCAST breakpoints were used. EGASP demographic, behavioural and clinical variables were collected using a standardized questionnaire.

Results

From 437 male patients, 306 had positive N. gonorrhoeae cultures, AMR testing and complete epidemiological data. Resistance to ceftriaxone, cefixime, azithromycin and ciprofloxacin was 15.4%, 43.1%, 14.4% and 97.1%, respectively. Nineteen (6.2%) isolates were resistant to all four antimicrobials and, accordingly, categorized as XDR N. gonorrhoeae. These XDR isolates were collected from 7 of the 10 sentinel sites. No EGASP MIC alert values for gentamicin were reported. The nationally recommended cefixime 400 mg plus azithromycin 1 g (65.4%) or ceftriaxone 1 g plus azithromycin 1 g (34.6%) was used for treatment.

Conclusions

A high prevalence of ceftriaxone-resistant, MDR and XDR N. gonorrhoeae in several cities of Cambodia were found during 2022-23 in WHO EGASP. This necessitates expanded N. gonorrhoeae AMR surveillance, revision of the nationally recommended gonorrhoea treatment, mandatory test of cure, enhanced sexual contact notification, and ultimately novel antimicrobials for the treatment of gonorrhoea.

Exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, volatile organic compounds, and tobacco-specific nitrosamines and incidence of esophageal cancer

BACKGROUND

Studying carcinogens in tobacco and nontobacco sources may be key to understanding the pathogenesis and geographic distribution of esophageal cancer.

METHODS

The Golestan Cohort Study has been conducted since 2004 in a region with high rates of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. For this nested study, the cases comprised of all incident cases by January 1, 2018; controls were matched to the case by age, sex, residence, time in cohort, and tobacco use. We measured urinary concentrations of 33 exposure biomarkers of nicotine, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, volatile organic compounds, and tobacco-specific nitrosamines. We used conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals for associations between the 90th vs the 10th percentiles of the biomarker concentrations and incident esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

RESULTS

Among individuals who did not currently use tobacco (148 cases and 163 controls), 2 acrolein metabolites, 2 acrylonitrile metabolites, 1 propylene oxide metabolite, and one 1,3-butadiene metabolite were significantly associated with incident esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (adjusted odds ratios between 1.8 and 4.3). Among tobacco users (57 cases and 63 controls), metabolites of 2 other volatile organic compounds (styrene and xylene) were associated with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OR = 6.2 and 9.0, respectively). In tobacco users, 2 tobacco-specific nitrosamines (NNN and N'-Nitrosoanatabine) were also associated with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Suggestive associations were seen with some polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (especially 2-hydroxynaphthalene) in nonusers of tobacco products and other tobacco-specific nitrosamines in tobacco users.

CONCLUSION

These novel associations based on individual-level data and samples collected many years before cancer diagnosis, from a population without occupational exposure, have important public health implications.

Description of Cryptococcosis Following SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Disease Survey Through the Mycosis Study Group Education and Research Consortium (MSG-19)

BACKGROUND

Invasive fungal infections have been described throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Cryptococcal disease after infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been reported in several isolated case reports and 1 larger case series. We sought to describe cryptococcal infections following SARS-CoV-2 through establishing a database to investigate underlying risk factors, disease manifestations, and outcomes.

METHODS

We created a crowdsourced call for cases solicited through the Mycoses Study Group Education and Research Consortium, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Emerging Infectious Diseases Network, and infectious diseases Twitter groups. Data were collected in a web-based and secure REDCap survey without personal identifiers.

RESULTS

Sixty-nine cases were identified and submitted by 29 separate institutional sites. Cryptococcosis was diagnosed a median of 22 days (interquartile range, 9-42 days) after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Mortality among those with available follow-up was 72% (26/36) for the immunocompetent group and 48% (15/31) for the immunocompromised group (likelihood ratio, 4.01; P = .045). We observed a correlation between disease manifestation (central nervous system infection, proven/probable disseminated disease, and respiratory) and mortality (P = .002).

CONCLUSIONS

The mortality rate of 59% for patients with cryptococcosis following SARS-CoV-2 is higher than that of modern Cryptococcus cohorts. There was an association between immunocompromised status and cryptococcal disease manifestations as well as mortality. Moreover, our series emphasizes the need for clinical and laboratory assessment of opportunistic infections beyond 30 days when concerning symptoms develop.

Using artificial intelligence to promote equitable care for inpatients with language barriers and complex medical needs: clinical stakeholder perspectives

OBJECTIVES

Inpatients with language barriers and complex medical needs suffer disparities in quality of care, safety, and health outcomes. Although in-person interpreters are particularly beneficial for these patients, they are underused. We plan to use machine learning predictive analytics to reliably identify patients with language barriers and complex medical needs to prioritize them for in-person interpreters.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This qualitative study used stakeholder engagement through semi-structured interviews to understand the perceived risks and benefits of artificial intelligence (AI) in this domain. Stakeholders included clinicians, interpreters, and personnel involved in caring for these patients or for organizing interpreters. Data were coded and analyzed using NVIVO software.

RESULTS

We completed 49 interviews. Key perceived risks included concerns about transparency, accuracy, redundancy, privacy, perceived stigmatization among patients, alert fatigue, and supply-demand issues. Key perceived benefits included increased awareness of in-person interpreters, improved standard of care and prioritization for interpreter utilization; a streamlined process for accessing interpreters, empowered clinicians, and potential to overcome clinician bias.

DISCUSSION

This is the first study that elicits stakeholder perspectives on the use of AI with the goal of improved clinical care for patients with language barriers. Perceived benefits and risks related to the use of AI in this domain, overlapped with known hazards and values of AI but some benefits were unique for addressing challenges with providing interpreter services to patients with language barriers.

CONCLUSION

Artificial intelligence to identify and prioritize patients for interpreter services has the potential to improve standard of care and address healthcare disparities among patients with language barriers.

Assessment of Humoral Immune Responses to Repeated Influenza Vaccination in a Multiyear Cohort: A 5-Year Follow-up

The long-term effects of host factors on vaccine-elicited immune responses have not been well studied, and the interactions of host factors with annual influenza vaccinations are yet to be explored. We analyzed data from a cohort of 386 individuals who received the standard-dose influenza vaccine and enrolled in ≥2 seasons from 2016 to 2020. Our analyses indicated disparate vaccine-elicited immune responses between males and females in adults when they were repeatedly vaccinated for at least 2 seasons. Notably, we found interactive effects between age and body mass index (BMI) on overall immune responses, and between sex at birth and BMI in adults.

Safety and Immunogenicity of a Delayed Heterologous Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Vaccine Boost Following Different Priming Regimens: A Randomized Clinical Trial

BACKGROUND

Influenza A (H7N9) has caused multiple disease waves with evidence of strain diversification. Optimal influenza A (H7N9) prime-boost vaccine strategies are unknown.

METHODS

We recruited participants who had received monovalent inactivated A/Shanghai/2/2013 (H7N9) vaccine (MIV) approximately 5 years earlier, as follows: MIV with MF59 (MF59 × 2 group), MIV with AS03 (AS03 × 2 group), unadjuvanted MIV (No Adj group), MIV with MF59 or AS03 followed by unadjuvanted MIV (Adjx1 group), and A/H7-naive (unprimed group). Participants were randomized to receive 1 dose of AS03-adjuvanted or unadjuvanted A/Hong Kong/125/2017 (H7N9) MIV and were followed for safety and immunogenicity using hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) and neutralizing antibody assays.

RESULTS

We enrolled 304 participants: 153 received the adjuvanted boost and 151 received the unadjuvanted boost. At 21 days postvaccination, the proportion of participants with HAI antibody titers against the boosting vaccine strain of ≥40 in the adjuvanted and unadjuvanted arms, respectively, were 88% and 49% in MF59 × 2 group, 89% and 75% in AS03 × 2 group, 59% and 20% in No Adj group, 94% and 55% in Adjx1group, and 9% and 11% in unprimed group.

CONCLUSIONS

Serologic responses to a heterologous A(H7N9) MIV boost were highest in participants primed and boosted with adjuvant-containing regimens.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT03738241.

Thematic analysis to explore patients' experiences with long COVID-19: a conceptual model of symptoms and impacts on daily lives

OBJECTIVES

There is limited qualitative research on patients' experiences with long COVID-19, and how specific symptoms impact their daily lives. The study aimed to understand patients' lived experiences of long COVID-19 and to develop a conceptual model representing the symptoms and their impact on overall quality of life.

SETTING

Qualitative study consisting of a comprehensive literature review, and in-depth clinician and patient semistructured interviews.

PARTICIPANTS

Forty-one adult patients with long COVID-19, of whom 18 (44%) were recruited through Regeneron Pharmaceuticals's clinical trials and 23 (56%) through recruitment agencies; 85.4% were female and 73.2% were White. Five independent clinicians treating patients with long COVID-19 were interviewed. Concept saturation was also assessed.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES

Interview transcripts were analysed thematically to identify concepts of interest spontaneously mentioned by patients, including symptoms and their impacts on daily life, to guide the development of the conceptual model.

RESULTS

Findings from the literature review and clinician and patient interviews resulted in the development of a conceptual model comprising two overarching domains: symptoms (upper respiratory tract, lower respiratory tract, smell and taste, systemic, gastrointestinal, neurocognitive and other) and impacts (activities of daily living, instrumental activities of daily living, physical impacts, emotional, social/leisure activities and professional impacts). Saturation was achieved for the reported impacts. The symptoms reported were heterogenic; neurocognitive symptoms, such as numbness, ringing in ears, haziness, confusion, forgetfulness/memory problems, brain fog, concentration, difficulties finding the right word and challenges with fine motor skills, were particularly pertinent for several months.

CONCLUSION

The conceptual model, developed based on patient experience data of long COVID-19, highlighted numerous symptoms that impact patients' physical and mental well-being, and suggests humanistic unmet needs. Prospective real-world studies are warranted to understand the pattern of long COVID-19 experienced in larger samples over longer periods of time.

Severe anal intraepithelial neoplasia trends and subsequent invasive anal cancer in the United States

BACKGROUND

Anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III is a precursor to squamous cell carcinoma of the anus for which rates are nearly 20-fold higher in people with HIV than in the general population in the United States. We describe trends in anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III diagnosis and risk of squamous cell carcinoma of the anus following anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III by HIV status and sex.

METHODS

We used data from a population-based linkage between cancer and HIV registries in 11 US states; Puerto Rico; and Washington, DC, during 1996-2019. We identified all individuals with a diagnosis of anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III and determined their HIV status. We estimated the average annual percentage change of anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III using Poisson regression stratified by HIV status and sex. We estimated the 5-year cumulative incidence of squamous cell carcinoma of the anus following an anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III diagnosis stratified by sex, HIV status, and prior AIDS diagnosis.

RESULTS

Among people with HIV, average annual percentage changes for anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III were 15% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 12% to 17%) per year among females and 12% (95% CI = 11% to 14%) among males. Average annual percentage changes for those without HIV were 8% (95% CI = 7% to 8%) for females and 8% (95% CI = 6% to 9%) for males. Among people with HIV, a prior AIDS diagnosis was associated with a 2.7-fold (95% CI = 2.23 to 3.40) and 1.9-fold (95% CI = 1.72 to 2.02) increased risk of anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III diagnosis for females and males, respectively. Five-year cumulative incidence of squamous cell carcinoma of the anus following anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III for people with HIV with a prior AIDS diagnosis were 3.4% and 3.7% for females and males, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Rates of anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III diagnoses have increased since 1996, particularly for people with HIV, likely influenced by increased screening. A prior AIDS diagnosis was strongly associated with risk of anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III diagnosis.

VEuPathDB: the eukaryotic pathogen, vector and host bioinformatics resource center in 2023

The Eukaryotic Pathogen, Vector and Host Informatics Resource (VEuPathDB, https://veupathdb.org) is a Bioinformatics Resource Center funded by the National Institutes of Health with additional funding from the Wellcome Trust. VEuPathDB supports >600 organisms that comprise invertebrate vectors, eukaryotic pathogens (protists and fungi) and relevant free-living or non-pathogenic species or hosts. Since 2004, VEuPathDB has analyzed omics data from the public domain using contemporary bioinformatic workflows, including orthology predictions via OrthoMCL, and integrated the analysis results with analysis tools, visualizations, and advanced search capabilities. The unique data mining platform coupled with >3000 pre-analyzed data sets facilitates the exploration of pertinent omics data in support of hypothesis driven research. Comparisons are easily made across data sets, data types and organisms. A Galaxy workspace offers the opportunity for the analysis of private large-scale datasets and for porting to VEuPathDB for comparisons with integrated data. The MapVEu tool provides a platform for exploration of spatially resolved data such as vector surveillance and insecticide resistance monitoring. To address the growing body of omics data and advances in laboratory techniques, VEuPathDB has added several new data types, searches and features, improved the Galaxy workspace environment, redesigned the MapVEu interface and updated the infrastructure to accommodate these changes.

Predictive metabolites for incident myocardial infarction: a two-step meta-analysis of individual patient data from six cohorts comprising 7897 individuals from the COnsortium of METabolomics Studies

AIMS

Myocardial infarction (MI) is a major cause of death and disability worldwide. Most metabolomics studies investigating metabolites predicting MI are limited by the participant number and/or the demographic diversity. We sought to identify biomarkers of incident MI in the COnsortium of METabolomics Studies.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We included 7897 individuals aged on average 66 years from six intercontinental cohorts with blood metabolomic profiling (n = 1428 metabolites, of which 168 were present in at least three cohorts with over 80% prevalence) and MI information (1373 cases). We performed a two-stage individual patient data meta-analysis. We first assessed the associations between circulating metabolites and incident MI for each cohort adjusting for traditional risk factors and then performed a fixed effect inverse variance meta-analysis to pull the results together. Finally, we conducted a pathway enrichment analysis to identify potential pathways linked to MI. On meta-analysis, 56 metabolites including 21 lipids and 17 amino acids were associated with incident MI after adjusting for multiple testing (false discovery rate < 0.05), and 10 were novel. The largest increased risk was observed for the carbohydrate mannitol/sorbitol {hazard ratio [HR] [95% confidence interval (CI)] = 1.40 [1.26-1.56], P < 0.001}, whereas the largest decrease in risk was found for glutamine [HR (95% CI) = 0.74 (0.67-0.82), P < 0.001]. Moreover, the identified metabolites were significantly enriched (corrected P < 0.05) in pathways previously linked with cardiovascular diseases, including aminoacyl-tRNA biosynthesis.

CONCLUSIONS

In the most comprehensive metabolomic study of incident MI to date, 10 novel metabolites were associated with MI. Metabolite profiles might help to identify high-risk individuals before disease onset. Further research is needed to fully understand the mechanisms of action and elaborate pathway findings.

Immunogenicity of a 2-Dose Regimen of Moderna mRNA Beta/Omicron BA.1 Bivalent Variant Vaccine Boost in a Randomized Clinical Trial

We compared the serologic responses of 1 dose versus 2 doses of a variant vaccine (Moderna mRNA-1273 Beta/Omicron BA.1 bivalent vaccine) in adults. A 2-dose boosting regimen with a variant vaccine did not increase the magnitude or the durability of the serological responses compared to a single variant vaccine boost.

Novel progestogenic androgens for male contraception: design, synthesis, and activity of C7 α-substituted testosterone†

Male contraceptive development has included use of testosterone (T) with or without a progestin or the use of a single molecule such as progestogenic androgens (PA) for suppression of testicular T production. Expanding upon the vast amount of data accumulated from nortestosterone (NT), NT analogs, and their prodrugs, a new series of PA, the C7 methyl, and ethyl α-substituted T analogs 7α-Methyltestosterone (7α-MT) and 7α-Ethyltestosterone (7α-ET), respectively, were hypothesized and designed to have superior androgenic and progestogenic activities when compared with parent T. Results from androgen receptor and progesterone receptor competitive binding and transcriptional activation assays showed favorable activities for these T analogs. Additionally, 7α-MT and 7α-ET were shown to be active substrates for aromatase in vitro, mitigating a potential negative impact on bone mineral density with long-term use. In conjunction with this observation, the diminished metabolism of these T analogs by 5α-reductase may reduce potential concerns for prostatic growth. In the Hershberger in vivo rat bioassay, 7α-MT and 7α-ET showed superior androgenic and anabolic activities as compared with T. These C7 α-substituted T analogs also showed clear progestogenic activity in the McPhail bioassay which evaluated endometrial glandular arborization in a rabbit model. The discovery of aromatizable molecules with reduced metabolism by 5α-reductase that have androgenic, anabolic, and progestogenic properties indicates that the core and/or prodrugs of 7α-MT and 7α-ET are promising molecules for further development as male contraceptive PAs.

Obesity and prostate cancer screening, incidence, and mortality in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial

BACKGROUND

Though obesity, measured by body mass index (BMI), is an established risk factor for several cancer sites, there is conflicting evidence on whether obesity increases prostate cancer risk or mortality and, if it does, whether it increases risk directly or indirectly by affecting prostate cancer screening efficacy.

METHODS

We examined associations between BMI and prostate cancer screening outcomes, incidence, and mortality in men randomly assigned to the intervention arm of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (n = 36 756) between 1993 and 2001. Participants received annual screening with the prostate-specific antigen test and digital rectal exam. Associations between baseline BMI and screening outcomes were assessed via multinomial logistic regression, and associations with prostate cancer incidence and mortality were assessed via Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

Individuals with higher BMI were less likely to screen positive via the prostate-specific antigen test and/or digital rectal exam and more likely to have an inadequate screen (all Ptrend < .01). Higher BMI was inversely associated with prostate cancer incidence (per 5 kg/m2 BMI increase: hazard ratio [HR] = 0.94, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.91 to 0.97), including incidence of early stage (HR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.90 to 0.97) and advanced-stage (HR = 0.91, 95% CI = 0.82 to 1.02) disease, but positively associated with prostate cancer mortality (HR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.06 to 1.37). The association with mortality was not modified by screening outcome (Pinteraction = .13).

CONCLUSIONS

Within this screened population, individuals with higher BMI had lower risk of prostate cancer diagnosis but higher risk of prostate cancer mortality. As higher BMI was not positively associated with advanced-stage prostate cancer risk, the increased mortality is unlikely to be due to delayed prostate cancer detection.

Nasopharyngeal Viral Load Is the Major Driver of Incident Antibody Immune Response to SARS-CoV-2 Infection

Background

Virologic determinants of seroconversion to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection were defined in a post hoc analysis of prospectively studied vaccine- and infection-naïve individuals at high risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Methods

This phase 3 COVID-19 prevention trial (NCT04452318) with casirivimab and imdevimab was conducted in July 2020-February 2021, before widespread vaccine availability. Placebo-treated participants who were uninfected (SARS-CoV-2 quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction [RT-qPCR] negative) and seronegative were assessed weekly for 28 days (efficacy assessment period [EAP]) for COVID-19 symptoms and SARS-CoV-2 infection by RT-qPCR of nasopharyngeal swab samples and for serostatus by antinucleocapsid immunoglobulin (Ig) G. Regression-based modeling, including causal mediation analysis, estimated the effects of viral load on seroconversion.

Results

Of 157/1069 (14.7%) uninfected and seronegative (for antispike IgG, antispike IgA, and antinucleocapsid IgG) participants who became infected during the EAP, 105 (65%) seroconverted. The mean (SD) maximum viral load of seroconverters was 7.23 (1.68) log10 copies/mL vs 4.8 (2.2) log10 copies/mL in those who remained seronegative; viral loads of ∼6.0 log10 copies/mL better predicted seroconversion. The mean of the maximum viral load was 7.11 log10 copies/mL in symptomatic participants vs 5.58 log10 copies/mL in asymptomatic participants. The mean duration of detectable viral load was longer in seroconverted vs seronegative participants: 3.24 vs 1.63 weeks.

Conclusions

Maximum SARS-CoV-2 viral load is a major driver of seroconversion and symptomatic COVID-19, with high viral loads (∼6.0 log10 copies/mL) better predicting seroconversion. Serology underestimates infection rates, incidence, and prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Exploring the impact of missingness on racial disparities in predictive performance of a machine learning model for emergency department triage

Objective

To investigate how missing data in the patient problem list may impact racial disparities in the predictive performance of a machine learning (ML) model for emergency department (ED) triage.

Materials and Methods

Racial disparities may exist in the missingness of EHR data (eg, systematic differences in access, testing, and/or treatment) that can impact model predictions across racialized patient groups. We use an ML model that predicts patients' risk for adverse events to produce triage-level recommendations, patterned after a clinical decision support tool deployed at multiple EDs. We compared the model's predictive performance on sets of observed (problem list data at the point of triage) versus manipulated (updated to the more complete problem list at the end of the encounter) test data. These differences were compared between Black and non-Hispanic White patient groups using multiple performance measures relevant to health equity.

Results

There were modest, but significant, changes in predictive performance comparing the observed to manipulated models across both Black and non-Hispanic White patient groups; c-statistic improvement ranged between 0.027 and 0.058. The manipulation produced no between-group differences in c-statistic by race. However, there were small between-group differences in other performance measures, with greater change for non-Hispanic White patients.

Discussion

Problem list missingness impacted model performance for both patient groups, with marginal differences detected by race.

Conclusion

Further exploration is needed to examine how missingness may contribute to racial disparities in clinical model predictions across settings. The novel manipulation method demonstrated may aid future research.

Frailty predicts knee pain trajectory over 9 years: results from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

OBJECTIVE

Frailty is a multisystem syndrome and its relationship with symptomatic osteoarthritis has been reported. We aimed to identify trajectories of knee pain in a large prospective cohort and to describe the effect of frailty status at baseline on the pain trajectories over 9 years.

METHODS

We included 4419 participants (mean age 61.3 years, 58% female) from the Osteoarthritis Initiative cohort. Participants were classified as "no frailty," "pre-frailty," or "frailty" at baseline, based on 5 characteristics (ie, unintentional weight loss, exhaustion, weak energy, slow gait speed, and low physical activity). Knee pain was evaluated annually using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index pain subscale (0-20) from baseline to 9 years.

RESULTS

Of the participants included, 38.4%, 55.4%, and 6.3% were classified as "no frailty," "pre-frailty," and "frailty," respectively. Five pain trajectories were identified: "No pain" (n = 1010, 22.8%), "Mild pain" (n = 1656, 37.3%), "Moderate pain" (n = 1149, 26.0%), "Severe pain" (n = 477, 10.9%), and "Very Severe pain" (n = 127, 3.0%). Compared to participants with no frailty, those with pre-frailty and frailty were more likely to have more severe pain trajectories (pre-frailty: odds ratios [ORs] 1.5 to 2.1; frailty: ORs 1.5 to 5.0), after adjusting for potential confounders. Further analyses indicated that the associations between frailty and pain were mainly driven by exhaustion, slow gait speed, and weak energy.

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately two-thirds of middle-aged and older adults were frail or pre-frail. The role of frailty in predicting pain trajectories suggests that frailty may be an important treatment target for knee pain.

Interrupted time series analysis of drug overdose fatalities in service-related industries versus non-service-related industries during the COVID-19 pandemic, 2018-2021

BACKGROUND

Variation among industries in the association between COVID-19-related closing or reopening orders and drug overdose deaths is unknown. The objectives of this study were to compare drug overdose decedent demographics, annual drug overdose fatality rates and monthly drug overdose fatality rates by specific industry within the service-related industry sector, and to perform an interrupted time series analysis comparing weekly drug overdose mortality counts in service-related and non-service-related industries, examining the COVID-19 pre-pandemic and pandemic phases by Kentucky closing and reopening orders.

METHODS

Kentucky drug overdose death certificate and toxicology testing data for years 2018-2021 were analysed using Χ2 and interrupted time series methods.

RESULTS

Before the pandemic, annual drug overdose fatality rates in service-related industries were higher than in non-service-related industries. However, these trends reversed during the pandemic. Both service-related and non-service-related industry groups experienced increased fatal drug overdoses at change points associated with the gubernatorial business closure orders, although the magnitude of the increase differed between the two groups. Young, female and black workers in service-related industries had higher frequencies of drug overdose deaths compared with decedents in the non-service-related industries.

CONCLUSION

Spikes in drug overdose mortality in both service-related and non-service-related industries during the pandemic highlight the need to consider and include industries and occupations, as well as worker populations vulnerable to infectious diseases, as integral stakeholder groups when developing and implementing drug overdose prevention interventions, and implementing infectious disease surveillance systems.

A Recombinant Vesicular Stomatitis Virus-Based Vaccine Provides Postexposure Protection Against Bundibugyo Ebolavirus Infection

BACKGROUND

The filovirus Bundibugyo virus (BDBV) causes severe disease with a mortality rate of approximately 20%-51%. The only licensed filovirus vaccine in the United States, Ervebo, consists of a recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus (rVSV) vector that expresses Ebola virus (EBOV) glycoprotein (GP). Ervebo was shown to rapidly protect against fatal Ebola disease in clinical trials; however, the vaccine is only indicated against EBOV. Recent outbreaks of other filoviruses underscore the need for additional vaccine candidates, particularly for BDBV infections.

METHODS

To examine whether the rVSV vaccine candidate rVSVΔG/BDBV-GP could provide therapeutic protection against BDBV, we inoculated seven cynomolgus macaques with 1000 plaque-forming units of BDBV, administering rVSVΔG/BDBV-GP vaccine to 6 of them 20-23 minutes after infection.

RESULTS

Five of the treated animals survived infection (83%) compared to an expected natural survival rate of 21% in this macaque model. All treated animals showed an early circulating immune response, while the untreated animal did not. Surviving animals showed evidence of both GP-specific IgM and IgG production, while animals that succumbed did not produce significant IgG.

CONCLUSIONS

This small, proof-of-concept study demonstrated early treatment with rVSVΔG/BDBV-GP provides a survival benefit in this nonhuman primate model of BDBV infection, perhaps through earlier initiation of adaptive immunity.

Natural History of Nonhuman Primates After Oral Exposure to Ebola Virus Variant Makona

BACKGROUND

The primary route of infection by Ebola virus (EBOV) is through contact of mucosal surfaces. Few studies have explored infection of nonhuman primates (NHPs) via the oral mucosa, which is a probable portal of natural infection in humans.

METHODS

To further characterize the pathogenesis of EBOV infection via the oral exposure route, we challenged cohorts of cynomolgus monkeys with low doses of EBOV variant Makona.

RESULTS

Infection with 100 or 50 PFU of EBOV Makona via the oral route resulted in 50% and 83% lethality, respectively. Animals that progressed to fatal disease exhibited lymphopenia, marked coagulopathy, high viral loads, and increased levels of serum markers of inflammation and hepatic/renal injury. Survival in these cohorts was associated with milder fluctuations in leukocyte populations, lack of coagulopathy, and reduced or absent serum markers of inflammation and/or hepatic/renal function. Surprisingly, 2 surviving animals from the 100- and 50-PFU cohorts developed transient low-level viremia in the absence of other clinical signs of disease. Conversely, all animals in the 10 PFU cohort remained disease free and survived to the study end point.

CONCLUSIONS

Our observations highlight the susceptibility of NHPs, and by extension, likely humans, to relatively low doses of EBOV via the oral route.

Clinical and Immunologic Correlates of Vasodilatory Shock Among Ebola Virus-Infected Nonhuman Primates in a Critical Care Model

BACKGROUND

Existing models of Ebola virus infection have not fully characterized the pathophysiology of shock in connection with daily virologic, clinical, and immunologic parameters. We implemented a nonhuman primate critical care model to investigate these associations.

METHODS

Two rhesus macaques received a target dose of 1000 plaque-forming units of Ebola virus intramuscularly with supportive care initiated on day 3. High-dimensional spectral cytometry was used to phenotype neutrophils and peripheral blood mononuclear cells daily.

RESULTS

We observed progressive vasodilatory shock with preserved cardiac function following viremia onset on day 5. Multiorgan dysfunction began on day 6 coincident with the nadir of circulating neutrophils. Consumptive coagulopathy and anemia occurred on days 7 to 8 along with irreversible shock, followed by death. The monocyte repertoire began shifting on day 4 with a decline in classical and expansion of double-negative monocytes. A selective loss of CXCR3-positive B and T cells, expansion of naive B cells, and activation of natural killer cells followed viremia onset.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model allows for high-fidelity characterization of the pathophysiology of acute Ebola virus infection with host innate and adaptive immune responses, which may advance host-targeted therapy design and evaluation for use after the onset of multiorgan failure.

Long-term Prophylaxis Against Aerosolized Marburg Virus in Nonhuman Primates With an Afucosylated Monoclonal Antibody

Marburg virus (MARV) causes a hemorrhagic fever disease in human and nonhuman primates with high levels of morbidity and mortality. Concerns about weaponization of aerosolized MARV have spurred the development of nonhuman primate (NHP) models of aerosol exposure. To address the potential threat of aerosol exposure, a monoclonal antibody that binds MARV glycoprotein was tested, MR186YTE, for its efficacy as a prophylactic. MR186YTE was administered intramuscularly to NHPs at 15 or 5 mg/kg 1 month prior to MARV aerosol challenge. Seventy-five percent (3/4) of the 15 mg/kg dose group and 50% (2/4) of the 5 mg/kg dose group survived. Serum analyses showed that the NHP dosed with 15 mg/kg that succumbed to infection developed an antidrug antibody response and therefore had no detectable MR186YTE at the time of challenge. These results suggest that intramuscular dosing of mAbs may be a clinically useful prophylaxis for MARV aerosol exposure.

Association of interleukin-6 and interleukin-18 with cardiovascular disease in older adults: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study

AIMS

Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and interleukin-18 (IL-18), important cytokines implicated in atherosclerosis and inflammaging, were assessed for associations with global cardiovascular disease (CVD), atrial fibrillation (AF), and death in older adults.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Participants from Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study Visit 5 (mean age 75.4 ± 5.1 years) with IL-6 and IL-18 measurements were included (n = 5672). Cox regression models were used to assess associations of IL-6 and IL-18 with coronary heart disease (CHD), ischaemic stroke, heart failure (HF) hospitalization, global CVD (composite of CHD, stroke, and HF), AF, and all-cause death. Over a median follow-up of 7.2 years, there were 1235 global CVD events, 530 AF events, and 1173 deaths. Higher IL-6 [hazard ratio (HR) 1.57, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.44-1.72 per log unit increase] and IL-18 (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.01-1.26) were significantly associated with global CVD after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors. Association between IL-6 and global CVD remained significant after further adjustment for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and high-sensitivity troponin T (hs-TnT) but was no longer significant for IL-18 after further adjustments. Interleukin-6 was also associated with increased risk for CHD, HF, and AF after adjustment for covariates. Both IL-6 and IL-18 were associated with increased risk for all-cause death independent of cardiovascular risk factors and other biomarkers.

CONCLUSION

Among older adults, both IL-6 and IL-18 were associated with global CVD and death. The association between IL-6 with CVD appears to be more robust and was independent of hs-CRP, NT-proBNP, and hs-TnT.

Cryptic splice mutation in the fumarate hydratase gene in patients with clinical manifestations of Hereditary Leiomyomatosis and Renal Cell Cancer

Hereditary leiomyomatosis and renal cell carcinoma (HLRCC) is an autosomal dominant condition characterized by the development of cutaneous and uterine leiomyomas and risk for development of an aggressive form of papillary renal cell cancer. HLRCC is caused by germline inactivating pathogenic variants in the fumarate hydratase (FH) gene, which encodes the enzyme that catalyzes the interconversion of fumarate and L-malate. We utilized enzyme and protein mobility assays to evaluate the FH enzyme in a cohort of patients who showed clinical manifestations of HLRCC but were negative for known pathogenic FH gene variants. FH enzyme activity and protein levels were decreased by 50% or greater in three family members, despite normal FH mRNA expression levels as measured by quantitative PCR. Direct Nanopore RNA sequencing demonstrated 57 base pairs of retained intron sequence between exons 9 and 10 of polyadenylated FH mRNA in these patients, resulting in a truncated FH protein. Genomic sequencing revealed a heterozygous intronic alteration of the FH gene (chr1: 241498239 T/C) resulting in formation of a splice acceptor site near a polypyrimidine tract, and a uterine fibroid obtained from a patient showed loss of heterozygosity at this site. The same intronic FH variant was identified in an unrelated patient who also showed a clinical phenotype of HLRCC. These data demonstrate that careful clinical assessment as well as biochemical characterization of FH enzyme activity, protein expression, direct RNA sequencing, and genomic DNA sequencing of patient-derived cells can identify pathogenic variants outside of the protein coding regions of the FH gene.

Breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 Infections in the PROVENT Prevention Trial Were Not Associated With AZD7442 (Tixagevimab/Cilgavimab) Resistant Variants

BACKGROUND

We report spike protein-based lineage and AZD7442 (tixagevimab/cilgavimab) neutralizing activity of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants identified from breakthrough infections in the PROVENT preexposure prophylaxis trial.

METHODS

Variants identified from PROVENT participants with reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction-positive symptomatic illness were phenotypically assessed to determine neutralization susceptibility of variant-specific pseudotyped virus-like particles.

RESULTS

At completion of 6 months' follow-up, no AZD7442-resistant variants were observed in breakthrough coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases. SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody titers were similar in breakthrough and nonbreakthrough cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Symptomatic COVID-19 breakthrough cases in PROVENT were not due to resistance-associated substitutions in AZD7442 binding sites or lack of AZD7442 exposure.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT04625725.

Standing Blood Pressure and Risk of Falls, Syncope, Coronary Heart Disease, and Mortality

BACKGROUND

ACC/AHA guidelines caution against the use of antihypertensive therapy in the setting of low standing systolic BP (SBP) < 110 mm Hg due to unclear benefits.

METHODS

The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study measured supine and standing SBP in adults aged 45-64 years between 1987 and 1989. We used Cox regression to evaluate the associations of low standing SBP (<110 mm Hg) with risk of falls, syncope, coronary heart disease (CHD), and mortality through December 31, 2019. Falls and syncope were ascertained by hospitalization and outpatient claims; CHD events were adjudicated. Associations were examined overall and in strata of hypertension stage, 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk, age, and sex.

RESULTS

Among 12,467 adults followed a median of 24 years (mean age at enrollment 54.1 ± 5.8 years, 55% women, 26% Black adults), 3,000 (24%) had a standing SBP < 110 mm Hg. A standing SBP < 110 mm Hg compared to standing SBP ≥ 110 mm Hg was not significantly associated with falls or syncope, and was associated with a lower risk of CHD events and mortality with HRs of 1.02 (95% CI 0.94, 1.11), 1.02 (0.93, 1.11), 0.88 (0.80, 0.97), and 0.91 (0.86, 0.97), respectively. There were no clinically meaningful differences when stratified by hypertension stage, 10-year ASCVD risk, age, and sex.

CONCLUSIONS

In this community-based population, low standing SBP was common and not significantly associated with falls or syncope, but was associated with a lower risk of CHD and mortality. These findings do not support screening for low standing BP as a risk factor for adverse events.

Cumulative incidence of anal cancer since HIV or AIDS diagnosis in the United States

Treatment of screen-detected anal high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions has been shown to effectively reduce the incidence of invasive anal cancer in people with HIV. We provide population-based estimates of cumulative incidence of anal cancer by risk group and age at HIV or AIDS diagnosis. The 0- to 10-year cumulative incidence of anal cancer for men who have sex with men and are younger than 30 years of age at HIV diagnosis was 0.17% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.13% to 0.20%) compared with 0.04% (95% CI = 0.02% to 0.06%) in other men and 0.03% (95% CI = 0.01% to 0.04%) in women. For men who have sex with men and have a diagnosis of AIDS and are younger than 30 years of age, the 0- to 10-year cumulative incidence was 0.35% (95% CI = 0.28% to 0.41%). Among people with HIV, men who have sex with men are at the greatest risk of anal cancer, and those with a diagnosis of AIDS had higher risk than those without AIDS. These estimates may inform recommendations for priority populations that could benefit most from anal cancer screening and treatment.

Immunogenicity of the BA.1 and BA.4/BA.5 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Bivalent Boosts: Preliminary Results From the COVAIL Randomized Clinical Trial

In a randomized clinical trial, we compare early neutralizing antibody responses after boosting with bivalent severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines based on either BA.1 or BA.4/BA.5 Omicron spike protein combined with wild-type spike. Responses against SARS-CoV-2 variants exhibited the greatest reduction in titers against currently circulating Omicron subvariants for both bivalent vaccines.

Impact of pathogen genetics on clinical phenotypes in a population of Talaromyces marneffei from Vietnam

Talaromycosis, a severe and invasive fungal infection caused by Talaromyces marneffei, is difficult to treat and impacts those living in endemic regions of Southeast Asia, India, and China. While 30% of infections result in mortality, our understanding of the genetic basis of pathogenesis for this fungus is limited. To address this, we apply population genomics and genome-wide association study approaches to a cohort of 336 T. marneffei isolates collected from patients who enrolled in the Itraconazole vs Amphotericin B for Talaromycosis trial in Vietnam. We find that isolates from northern and southern Vietnam form two distinct geographical clades, with isolates from southern Vietnam associated with increased disease severity. Leveraging longitudinal isolates, we identify multiple instances of disease relapse linked to unrelated strains, highlighting the potential for multistrain infections. In more frequent cases of persistent talaromycosis caused by the same strain, we identify variants arising over the course of patient infections that impact genes predicted to function in the regulation of gene expression and secondary metabolite production. By combining genetic variant data with patient metadata for all 336 isolates, we identify pathogen variants significantly associated with multiple clinical phenotypes. In addition, we identify genes and genomic regions under selection across both clades, highlighting loci undergoing rapid evolution, potentially in response to external pressures. With this combination of approaches, we identify links between pathogen genetics and patient outcomes and identify genomic regions that are altered during T. marneffei infection, providing an initial view of how pathogen genetics affects disease outcomes.

Aging-Related Multisystem Dysregulation Over the Adult Life Span and Physical Function in Later Life: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

BACKGROUND

Multisystem dysregulation (Dm) shows promise as a metric of aging and predicts mortality. However, Dm needs to be studied with less severe endpoints indicating modifiable aging stages. Physical function, reflecting healthy longevity rather than just longevity, is more relevant to the goals of geroscience but has not been well investigated.

METHODS

We tested the association of midlife Dm and its change over ~20 years with physical function in later life in 5 583 the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study cohort participants (baseline mean age 54.7). Dm quantifies the multivariate statistical deviation of 17 physiologically motivated biomarkers relative to their distribution in a young healthy sample at baseline. Physical function was assessed from grip strength and the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB). Associations were quantified using linear regression and ordinal logistic regression adjusting for age, sex, race, and education.

RESULTS

Each unit increment in midlife Dm was associated with 1.71 times the odds of having a lower SPPB score. Compared to the first quartile of midlife Dm, the odds ratios of having a lower SPPB score were 1.25, 1.56, and 2.45, respectively, for the second-fourth quartiles. Similar graded association patterns were observed for each SPPB component test and grip strength. An inverse monotonic relationship also was observed between the annual growth rate of Dm and physical function.

CONCLUSION

Greater Dm and progression in midlife were associated with lower physical function in later life. Future studies on the factors that lead to the progression of Dm may highlight opportunities to preserve physical function.

The Effect of Age on Dengue Presentation and the Diagnostic Accuracy of the 2015 Pan American Health Organization Case Criteria in a Puerto Rican Cohort

Background

We evaluated dengue presentation by age, the performance of the 2015 Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) case criteria in identifying dengue cases, and variables to improve specificity.

Methods

Patients with fever ≤7 days (N = 10 408) were recruited from 2 emergency departments from May 2012 through December 2015. Serum samples were tested for dengue, chikungunya, and nasopharyngeal swabs for respiratory viruses. Smoothing splines assessed differences in the frequencies of signs/symptoms by age. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regressions identified the variables that best predicted dengue.

Results

Among 985 dengue cases, children aged <5 years were least likely to have leukopenia, but most likely to have rash and petechiae. Adults had the highest odds of aches/pains and headaches/retro-orbital pain. The 2015 PAHO criteria had sensitivity of 93% and specificity of 25%. Specificity could be improved by requiring at least 2 of the following criteria: vomiting/nausea, petechiae, rash, or leukopenia (specificity 68%, sensitivity 71%) or by using 2015 PAHO criteria plus either (1) aspartate aminotransferase >50 IU/L or platelet count <100 000 platelets/μL (specificity 81%, sensitivity 56%) or (2) itchy skin or absence of rhinorrhea or cough (specificity 51%, sensitivity 82%).

Conclusions

The 2015 PAHO dengue case criteria had excellent sensitivity but poor specificity. This can be improved by adding signs/symptoms associated with dengue diagnosis.

The Association Between Midlife Leisure-Time Physical Activity and Hearing Loss in Late Life in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

BACKGROUND

Hearing loss is highly prevalent in older ages and has several health consequences. Some cardiovascular risk factors are associated with worse hearing at older ages. Still, the role of midlife leisure-time physical activity (PA) as a risk factor for hearing loss is yet to be investigated.

METHODS

Among 3 198 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, we investigated the associations of midlife and change from mid- to late-life PA (assessed via modified Baecke questionnaire) with hearing loss (audiometric battery [worse-ear pure-tone average, and speech-in-noise test]) at older ages. We used regression analyses, adjusted for demographics, medical conditions, and noise exposure, to estimate differences in hearing between those who met and did not meet PA recommendations at midlife and at late life.

RESULTS

A total of 1 386 (43.3%) participants met PA recommendations at midlife. These participants, compared to those who did not meet recommendations, had lower (better) pure-tone average by 1.51 (0.46, 2.55) decibels, identified 0.37 (0.01, 0.74) more words (better score) in the speech-in-noise test, and had a lower relative risk of having hearing loss at older ages (eg, relative risk ratio for severe hearing loss vs normal hearing = 0.70 [0.52, 0.95]). Similarly, those who persistently met PA recommendations from mid- to late life had, compared with those who did not, a better hearing at older ages.

CONCLUSIONS

Meeting PA public health recommendations in midlife and mid- to late life was associated with better hearing at older ages and reduced risk of hearing loss. Promoting adequate levels of PA may be an essential component of hearing care.

Geographic Targeting of COVID-19 Testing to Maximize Detection in Los Angeles County

Background

Many severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infections have not been detected, reported, or isolated. For community testing programs to locate the most cases under limited testing resources, we developed and evaluated quantitative approaches for geographic targeting of increased coronavirus disease 2019 testing efforts.

Methods

For every week from December 5, 2021, to July 23, 2022, testing and vaccination data were obtained in ∼340 cities/communities in Los Angeles County, and models were developed to predict which cities/communities would have the highest test positivity 2 weeks ahead. A series of counterfactual scenarios were constructed to explore the additional number of cases that could be detected under targeted testing.

Results

The simplest model based on most recent test positivity performed nearly as well as the best model based on most recent test positivity and weekly tests per 100 persons in identifying communities that would maximize the average yield of cases per test in the following 2 weeks and almost as well as the perfect knowledge of the actual positivity 2 weeks ahead. In the counterfactual scenario, increasing testing by 1% 2 weeks ahead and allocating all tests to communities with the top 10% of predicted positivity would yield a 2% increase in detected cases.

Conclusions

Simple models based on current test positivity can predict which communities may have the highest positivity 2 weeks ahead and hence could be allocated with more testing resources.

A Prospective Study of Key Correlates for Household Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2

Background

Randomized controlled trials evaluated monoclonal antibodies for the treatment (Study 2067) and prevention (Study 2069) of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Household contacts of the infected index case in Study 2067 were enrolled in Study 2069 and prospectively followed; these cohorts provided a unique opportunity to evaluate correlates of transmission, specifically viral load.

Methods

This post hoc analysis was designed to identify and evaluate correlates of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, adjusting for potential confounding factors related to source SARS-CoV-2 viral load and risk of SARS-CoV-2 acquisition in this population. Correlates of transmission were evaluated in potential transmission pairs (any infected household member plus susceptible household contact).

Results

In total, 943 participants were included. In multivariable regression, 2 potential correlates were determined to have a statistically significant (P < .05) association with transmission risk. A 10-fold increase in viral load was associated with a 40% increase in odds of transmission; sharing a bedroom with the index participant was associated with a 199% increase in odds of transmission.

Conclusions

In this prospective, post hoc analysis that controlled for confounders, the 2 key correlates for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within a household are sharing a bedroom and increased viral load, consistent with increased exposure to the infected individual.

Psychometrics of the Concise Health Risk Tracking Self-Report (CHRT-SR16) Assessment of Suicidality in a Sample of Adults with Moderate to Severe Methamphetamine Use Disorder: Findings from the ADAPT-2 Randomized Trial

Background

The co-occurrence of suicidality and substance use disorders has been well established, but rating scales to examine suicidal behavior and risk are sparse among participants with substance use disorders. We examined the psychometric properties of the 16-item Concise Health Risk Tracking Scale - Self Report (CHRT-SR₁₆) to measure suicidality among adults with moderate-to-severe methamphetamine use disorder.

Methods

Participants (n = 403) with moderate-to-severe methamphetamine use disorder completed the CHRT-SR₁₆ as part of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled pharmacotherapy trial. The CHRT-SR₁₆ factor structure was assessed using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Internal consistency was estimated with coefficients alpha (α) and omega (ω), test-retest reliability with intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and standard error of measurement, and convergent validity using Spearman's ρ rank order correlation coefficient test between CHRT-SR₁₆ factors and the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). The analyses utilized baseline and week 1 data (for test-retest reliability only).

Results

CFA revealed a seven-factor model of Pessimism, Helplessness, Social Support, Despair, Impulsivity, Irritability, and Suicidal Thoughts as the best-fitting model. The CHRT-SR₁₆ also exhibited strong internal consistency (α = 0.89; ω = 0.89), test-retest reliability (ICC = 0.78) and convergent validity with the PHQ-9 total score (ρ = 0.62).

Conclusion

The CHRT-SR₁₆ showed strong psychometric properties in a sample of participants with primary methamphetamine use disorder.

Clinicaltrialsgov Identifier

NCT03078075.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 Convalescent Plasma Outpatient Therapy to Prevent Outpatient Hospitalization: A Meta-Analysis of Individual Participant Data From 5 Randomized Trials

BACKGROUND

Outpatient monoclonal antibodies are no longer effective and antiviral treatments for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disease remain largely unavailable in many countries worldwide. Although treatment with COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) is promising, clinical trials among outpatients have shown mixed results.

METHODS

We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis from outpatient trials to assess the overall risk reduction for all-cause hospitalizations by day 28 in transfused participants. Relevant trials were identified by searching Medline, Embase, medRxiv, World Health Organization COVID-19 Research Database, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science from January 2020 to September 2022.

RESULTS

Five included studies from 4 countries enrolled and transfused 2620 adult patients. Comorbidities were present in 1795 (69%). The virus neutralizing antibody dilutional titer levels ranged from 8 to 14 580 in diverse assays. One hundred sixty of 1315 (12.2%) control patients were hospitalized, versus 111 of 1305 (8.5%) CCP-treated patients, yielding a 3.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3%-6.0%; P = .001) absolute risk reduction and 30.1% relative risk reduction for all-cause hospitalization. The hospitalization reduction was greatest in those with both early transfusion and high titer with a 7.6% absolute risk reduction (95% CI, 4.0%-11.1%; P = .0001) accompanied by at 51.4% relative risk reduction. No significant reduction in hospitalization was seen with treatment >5 days after symptom onset or in those receiving CCP with antibody titers below the median titer.

CONCLUSIONS

Among outpatients with COVID-19, treatment with CCP reduced the rate of all-cause hospitalization and may be most effective when given within 5 days of symptom onset and when antibody titer is higher.

Genetic evidence for causal relationships between age at natural menopause and the risk of ageing-associated adverse health outcomes

BACKGROUND

A later age at natural menopause (ANM) has been linked to several ageing-associated traits including an increased risk of breast and endometrial cancer and a decreased risk of lung cancer, osteoporosis and Alzheimer disease. However, ANM is also related to several proxies for overall health that may confound these associations.

METHODS

We investigated the causal association of ANM with these clinical outcomes using Mendelian randomization (MR). Participants and outcomes analysed were restricted to post-menopausal females. We conducted a one-sample MR analysis in both the Women's Health Initiative and UK Biobank. We further analysed and integrated several additional data sets of post-menopausal women using a two-sample MR design. We used ≤55 genetic variants previously discovered to be associated with ANM as our instrumental variable.

RESULTS

A 5-year increase in ANM was causally associated with a decreased risk of osteoporosis [odds ratio (OR) = 0.80, 95% CI (0.70-0.92)] and fractures (OR = 0.76, 95% CI, 0.62-0.94) as well as an increased risk of lung cancer (OR = 1.35, 95% CI, 1.06-1.71). Other associations including atherosclerosis-related outcomes were null.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study confirms that the decline in bone density with menopause causally translates into fractures and osteoporosis. Additionally, this is the first causal epidemiological analysis to our knowledge to find an increased risk of lung cancer with increasing ANM. This finding is consistent with molecular and epidemiological studies suggesting oestrogen-dependent growth of lung tumours.

Understanding the Relationship Between Antiviral Prescription Data and COVID-19 Incidence in New York City: A Retrospective Cohort Study

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused more than 675 million confirmed cases and nearly 7 million deaths worldwide [1]. While testing for COVID-19 was initially centered in health care facilities, with required reporting to health departments, it is increasingly being performed in the home with rapid antigen testing [2]. Most at-home tests are self-interpreted and not reported to a provider or health department, which could lead to delayed reporting or underreporting of cases [3]. As such, there is a strong possibility that reported cases may become a less reliable indicator of transmission over time.

Persistence of Immunogenicity of a Purified Inactivated Zika Virus Vaccine Candidate in Healthy Adults: 2 Years of Follow-up Compared With Natural Infection

BACKGROUND

We report 2-year persistence of immune response to Takeda's prophylactic purified formalin-inactivated whole Zika virus vaccine candidate (TAK-426) compared with that observed after natural infection.

METHODS

A randomized, observer-blind, placebo-controlled, dose-selection, phase 1 trial was conducted in 18-49-year-old adults at 9 centers (7 in the United States, 2 in Puerto Rico) from 13 November 2017 to 24 November 2020. Primary objectives were safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of 3 increasing doses of TAK-426 administered as 2 doses 28 days apart to flavivirus (FV)-naive and FV-primed adults. Here, we report on safety and persistence of immunity up to 2 years after primary vaccination with 10-μg TAK-426, the highest dose, and compare neutralizing antibody responses with those observed after natural infection.

RESULTS

TAK-426 at 10-μg had an acceptable safety profile in FV-naive and FV-primed adults up to 24 months after dose 2. Seropositivity for neutralizing antibodies was 100% at 1 year, and 93.8% and 76.2% at 2 years in FV-naive and FV-primed groups, respectively. TAK-426 responses were comparable in magnitude and kinetics with those elicited by natural Zika virus infection.

CONCLUSIONS

These results support the further clinical development of TAK-426 for both FV-naive and FV-primed populations.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT03343626.

Whole grain consumption and risk of radiographic knee osteoarthritis: a prospective study from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

OBJECTIVES

To assess the association of whole grain consumption with the risk of incident knee OA.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We followed 2846 participants in the Osteoarthritis Initiative ages 45-79 years. Participants were free from radiographic knee OA (Kellgren-Lawrence grade <2) in at least one knee at baseline. Dietary data from baseline were obtained using the Block Brief Food Frequency Questionnaire. We defined radiographic knee OA incidence as a Kellgren-Lawrence grade ≥2 during the subsequent 96 months. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association between whole grain food intake and the risk of incident knee OA.

RESULTS

During the 96 month follow-up, 518 participants (691 knees) developed incident radiographic knee OA. Higher total whole grain consumption was significantly associated with a lower knee OA risk [hazard ratio (HR)quartile 4vs1 = 0.66 (95% CI 0.52, 0.84), P for trend < 0.01] after adjusting for demographic and socio-economic factors, clinical factors and other dietary factors related to OA. Consistently, a significant inverse association of dark bread consumption with knee OA risk was observed [HRquartile 4vs1 = 0.68 (95% CI 0.53, 0.87), P for trend < 0.01). In addition, we observed a significant inverse association between higher cereal fibre intake and reduced knee OA risk [HRquartile 4vs1 = 0.61 (95% CI 0.46, 0.81), P for trend < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings revealed a significant inverse association of whole grain consumption with knee OA risk. These findings provide evidence that eating a diet rich in whole grains may be a potential nutritional strategy to prevent knee OA.

Effectiveness of Casirivimab and Imdevimab Antibody Combination in Immunocompromised Hospitalized Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Post Hoc Analysis in a Phase 1/2/3 Double-Blind Trial

Background

Individuals who are immunocompromised (IC) are at high risk for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Methods

Post hoc analyses of a double-blind trial conducted prior to Omicron (June 2020-April 2021), in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 assessed viral load, clinical outcomes, and safety of casirivimab plus imdevimab (CAS + IMD) versus placebo in IC versus overall study patients.

Results

Ninety-nine of 1940 (5.1%) patients were IC. IC versus overall patients were more frequently seronegative for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies (68.7% vs 41.2%) and had higher median baseline viral loads (7.21 vs 6.32 log₁₀ copies/mL). On placebo, IC versus overall patients had slower viral load declines. CAS + IMD reduced viral load in IC and overall patients; least-squares mean difference versus placebo in time-weighted average change from baseline viral load at day 7 was -0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI], -1.25 to -.14) log₁₀ copies/mL for IC patients and -0.31 (95% CI, -.42 to -.20) log₁₀ copies/mL for overall patients. For IC patients, the cumulative incidence of death or mechanical ventilation at day 29 was lower with CAS + IMD (11.0%) versus placebo (17.2%), consistent with overall patients (15.7% CAS + IMD vs 18.3% placebo). IC and overall patients receiving CAS + IMD exhibited similar rates of treatment-emergent adverse events (30.4% and 26.6%, respectively), grade ≥2 hypersensitivity or infusion-related reactions (1.4% and 2.5%), and deaths (8.7% and 12.2%).

Conclusions

IC patients were more likely to exhibit high viral loads and be seronegative at baseline. For susceptible SARS-CoV-2 variants, CAS + IMD reduced viral load and resulted in fewer death or mechanical ventilation events in IC and overall study patients. There were no new safety findings among IC patients. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT04426695.

Characterizing SARS-CoV-2 Transcription of Subgenomic and Genomic RNAs During Early Human Infection Using Multiplexed Droplet Digital Polymerase Chain Reaction

BACKGROUND

Control of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission requires understanding SARS-CoV-2 replication dynamics.

METHODS

We developed a multiplexed droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR) assay to quantify SARS-CoV-2 subgenomic RNAs (sgRNAs), which are only produced during active viral replication, and discriminate them from genomic RNAs (gRNAs). We applied the assay to specimens from 144 people with single nasopharyngeal samples and 27 people with >1 sample. Results were compared to quantitative PCR (qPCR) and viral culture.

RESULTS

sgRNAs were quantifiable across a range of qPCR cycle threshold (Ct) values and correlated with Ct values. The ratio sgRNA:gRNA was stable across a wide range of Ct values, whereas adjusted amounts of N sgRNA to a human housekeeping gene declined with higher Ct values. Adjusted sgRNA and gRNA amounts were quantifiable in culture-negative samples, although levels were significantly lower than in culture-positive samples. Daily testing of 6 persons revealed that sgRNA is concordant with culture results during the first week of infection but may be discordant with culture later in infection. sgRNA:gRNA is constant during infection despite changes in viral culture.

CONCLUSIONS

Ct values from qPCR correlate with active viral replication. More work is needed to understand why some cultures are negative despite presence of sgRNA.

Overcoming barriers in the design and implementation of clinical trials for acute kidney injury: a report from the 2020 Kidney Disease Clinical Trialists meeting

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a growing epidemic and is independently associated with increased risk of death, chronic kidney disease (CKD) and cardiovascular events. Randomized-controlled trials (RCTs) in this domain are notoriously challenging and many clinical studies in AKI have yielded inconclusive findings. Underlying this conundrum is the inherent heterogeneity of AKI in its etiology, presentation and course. AKI is best understood as a syndrome and identification of AKI subphenotypes is needed to elucidate the disease's myriad etiologies and to tailor effective prevention and treatment strategies. Conventional RCTs are logistically cumbersome and often feature highly selected patient populations that limit external generalizability and thus alternative trial designs should be considered when appropriate. In this narrative review of recent developments in AKI trials based on the Kidney Disease Clinical Trialists (KDCT) 2020 meeting, we discuss barriers to and strategies for improved design and implementation of clinical trials for AKI patients, including predictive and prognostic enrichment techniques, the use of pragmatic trials and adaptive trials.

Variability in Urinary Nicotine Exposure Biomarker Levels Between Waves 1 (2013-2014) and 2 (2014-2015) in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study

INTRODUCTION

To date, no studies have evaluated the consistency of biomarker levels in people who smoke over a long-time period in real-world conditions with a large number of subjects and included use behavior and measures of nicotine metabolism. We evaluated the variability of biomarkers of nicotine exposure over approximately a 1-year period in people who exclusively smoke cigarettes, including intensity and recency of use and brand switching to assess impact on understanding associations with product characteristics.

AIMS AND METHODS

Multivariate regression analysis of longitudinal repeated measures of urinary biomarkers of nicotine exposure from 916 adults in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study with demographic characteristics and use behavior variables. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were calculated to examine individual variation of nicotine biomarkers and the uncertainty of repeat measures at two time points (Waves 1 and 2).

RESULTS

Age, race, and urinary creatinine were significant covariates of urinary cotinine. When including use behavior, recency, and intensity of use were highly significant and variance decreased to a higher extent between than within subjects. The ICC for urinary cotinine decreased from 0.7530 with no use behavior variables in the model to 0.5763 when included. Similar results were found for total nicotine equivalents.

CONCLUSIONS

Urinary nicotine biomarkers in the PATH Study showed good consistency between Waves 1 and 2. Use behavior measures such as time since last smoked a cigarette and number of cigarettes smoked in the past 30 days are important to include when assessing factors that may influence biomarker concentrations.

IMPLICATIONS

The results of this study show that the consistency of the nicotine biomarkers cotinine and total nicotine equivalents in spot urine samples from Waves 1 to 2 of the PATH Study is high enough that these data are useful to evaluate the association of cigarette characteristics with biomarkers of exposure under real-world use conditions.

Recurrence of Symptoms Following Cryptococcal Meningitis: Characterizing a Diagnostic Conundrum With Multiple Etiologies

BACKGROUND

Cryptococcal meningitis is a common cause of AIDS-related mortality. Although symptom recurrence after initial treatment is common, the etiology is often difficult to decipher. We sought to summarize characteristics, etiologies, and outcomes among persons with second-episode symptomatic recurrence.

METHODS

We prospectively enrolled Ugandans with cryptococcal meningitis and obtained patient characteristics, antiretroviral therapy (ART) and cryptococcosis histories, clinical outcomes, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) analysis results. We independently adjudicated cases of second-episode meningitis to categorize patients as (1) microbiological relapse, (2) paradoxical immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS), (3) persistent elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) only, or (4) persistent symptoms only, along with controls of primary cryptococcal meningitis. We compared groups with chi-square or Kruskal-Wallis tests as appropriate.

RESULTS

724 participants were included (n = 607 primary episode, 81 relapse, 28 paradoxical IRIS, 2 persistently elevated ICP, 6 persistent symptoms). Participants with culture-positive relapse had lower CD4 (25 cells/μL; IQR: 9-76) and lower CSF white blood cell (WBC; 4 cells/μL; IQR: 4-85) counts than paradoxical IRIS (CD4: 78 cells/μL; IQR: 47-142; WBC: 45 cells/μL; IQR: 8-128). Among those with CSF WBC <5 cells/μL, 86% (43/50) had relapse. Among those with CD4 counts <50 cells/μL, 91% (39/43) had relapse. Eighteen-week mortality (from current symptom onset) was 47% among first episodes of cryptococcal meningitis, 31% in culture-positive relapses, and 14% in paradoxical IRIS.

CONCLUSIONS

Poor immune reconstitution was noted more often in relapse than IRIS as evidenced by lower CSF WBC and blood CD4 counts. These easily obtained laboratory values should prompt initiation of antifungal treatment while awaiting culture results.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT01802385.

Visual recognition in rhesus monkeys requires area TE but not TEO

The primate visual system is often described as a hierarchical feature-conjunction pathway, whereby each level represents an increasingly complex combination of image elements, culminating in the representation of whole coherent images in anterior inferior temporal cortex. Although many models of the ventral visual stream emphasize serial feedforward processing ((Poggio T, Mutch J, Leibo J, Rosasco L, Tacchetti A. The computationalmagic of the ventral stream: sketch of a theory (and why some deep architectures work). TechRep MIT-CSAIL-TR-2012-035. MIT CSAIL, Cambridge, MA. 2012); (Yamins DLK, DiCarlo JJ. Eight open questions in the computational modeling of higher sensory cortex. Curr Opin Neurobiol. 2016:37:114-120.)), anatomical studies show connections that bypass intermediate areas and that feedback to preceding areas ((Distler C, Boussaoud D, Desimone R, Ungerleider LG. Cortical connections of inferior temporal area TEO in macaque monkeys. J Comp Neurol. 1993:334(1):125-150.); (Kravitz DJ, Saleem KS, Baker CI, Mishkin M. A new neural framework for visuospatial processing. Nat Rev Neurosci. 2011:12(4):217-230.)). Prior studies on visual discrimination and object transforms also provide evidence against a strictly feed-forward serial transfer of information between adjacent areas ((Kikuchi R, Iwai E. The locus of the posterior subdivision of the inferotemporal visual learning area in the monkey. Brain Res. 1980:198(2):347-360.); (Weiskrantz L, Saunders RC. Impairments of visual object transforms in monkeys. Brain. 1984:107(4):1033-1072.); (Kar K, DiCarlo JJ. Fast recurrent processing via ventrolateral prefrontal cortex is needed by the primate ventral stream for robust Core visual object recognition. Neuron. 2021:109(1):164-176.e5.)). Thus, we sought to investigate whether behaviorally relevant propagation of visual information is as strictly sequential as sometimes supposed. We compared the accuracy of visual recognition after selective removal of specific subregions of inferior temporal cortex-area TEO, area TE, or both areas combined. Removal of TEO alone had no detectable effect on recognition memory, whereas removal of TE alone produced a large and significant impairment. Combined removal of both areas created no additional deficit relative to removal of TE alone. Thus, area TE is critical for rapid visual object recognition, and detailed image-level visual information can reach area TE via a route other than through TEO.

Predictors of E-cigarette and Cigarette Use Trajectory Classes from Early Adolescence to Emerging Adulthood Across Four Years (2013-2017) of the PATH Study

INTRODUCTION

This study examines predictors of trajectories of cigarette and e-cigarette use among a cohort of US adolescents transitioning into young adulthood. Comparing trajectories of each tobacco product is important to determine if different intervention targets are needed to prevent progression to daily use.

METHODS

Latent trajectory class analyses identified cigarette and e-cigarette use (never, ever excluding past 12-month, past 12-month (excluding past 30-day (P30D)), P30D 1-5 days, P30D 6+ days) trajectory classes, separately, among US youth (12-17; N = 10,086) using the first 4 waves (2013-2017) of data from the nationally representative PATH Study. Weighted descriptive analyses described the class characteristics. Weighted multinomial logistic regression analyses examined demographic, psychosocial, and behavioral predictors of class membership.

RESULTS

Younger adolescents 12-15 years had lower tobacco use compared to 16-17 year olds and less stable classes. In the 16-17 year group, there were five unique trajectories of cigarette smoking, including a Persistent High Frequency class. Four e-cigarette use trajectories were identified; but not a persistent use class. Shared predictors of class membership for cigarettes and e-cigarettes included mental health problems, other tobacco use, marijuana use, and poorer academic achievement. Male sex and household tobacco use were unique e-cigarette trajectory class predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no evidence that initiation with e-cigarettes as the first product tried was associated with cigarette progression (nor cigarettes as first product and e-cigarette progression). Interventions should focus on well-established risk factors such as mental health and other substance use to prevent progression of use for both tobacco products.

IMPLICATIONS

Using nationally representative data and definitions of use that take into account frequency and recency of use, longitudinal 4-year trajectories of e-cigarette and cigarette use among US adolescents transitioning into young adulthood were identified. Results among 16-17-year olds revealed a class of persistent high frequency cigarette smoking that was not identified for e-cigarette use. Cigarette use progression was not associated with e-cigarettes as the first product tried. Risk factors for progression of use of both products included mental health and other substance use, which are important prevention targets for both tobacco products.

No Association of IFNL4 Genotype With Opportunistic Infections and Cancers Among Men With Human Immunodeficiency Virus 1 Infection

BACKGROUND

IFNL4 genetic variants that are strongly associated with clearance of hepatitis C virus have been linked to risk of certain opportunistic infections (OIs) and cancers, including Kaposi sarcoma, cytomegalovirus infection, and herpes simplex virus infection. As the interferon (IFN) λ family plays a role in response to viral, bacterial, and fungal infections, IFNL4 genotype might affect risk for a wide range of OIs/cancers.

METHODS

We examined associations between genotype for the functional IFNL4 rs368234815 polymorphism and incidence of 16 OIs/cancers among 2310 men with human immunodeficiency virus (2038 white; 272 black) enrolled in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study during 1984-1990. Our primary analyses used Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for self-reported racial ancestry to estimate hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals, comparing participants with the genotypes that generate IFN-λ4 and those with the genotype that abrogates IFN-λ4. We censored follow-up at the introduction of highly effective antiretroviral therapies.

RESULTS

We found no statistically significant association between IFNL4 genotype and the incidence of Kaposi sarcoma (hazard ratio, 0.92 [95% confidence interval, .76-1.11]), cytomegalovirus infection (0.94 [.71-1.24]), herpes simplex virus infection (1.37 [.68-2.93]), or any other OI/cancer. We observed consistent results using additive genetic models and after controlling for CD4 cell count through time-dependent adjustment or restriction to participants with a low CD4 cell count.

CONCLUSIONS

The absence of associations between IFNL4 genotype and these OIs/cancers provides evidence that this gene does not affect the risk of disease from opportunistic pathogens.