An open-label, Phase 3 trial of TAK-003, a live attenuated dengue tetravalent vaccine, in healthy US adults: immunogenicity and safety when administered during the second half of a 24-month shelf-life

Dengue is caused by a mosquito-transmitted flavivirus. The disease is now endemic to many tropical and subtropical regions, manifesting as approximately 96 million symptomatic cases of dengue each year. Clinical trials have shown TAK-003 (Qdenga®), a live attenuated dengue tetravalent vaccine, to be well-tolerated, immunogenic, and efficacious in adults with no prior exposure to dengue virus infection living in non-endemic regions, as well as in adults and children living in dengue-endemic areas. This open-label, single-arm phase 3 trial (NCT03771963) was conducted in two dengue non-endemic areas of the USA, and it evaluated the immunogenicity and safety of naturally-aged TAK-003 administered to adult participants. Overall, the immunogenicity data from this trial are consistent with those reported from other TAK-003 phase 2 and 3 trials, and the safety data are consistent with the broader integrated safety data analysis. The data show that naturally-aged TAK-003 had a well-tolerated reactogenicity and adverse events profile when administered in the second half of its clinical 24-month shelf-life and that it still elicited an immune response that persisted up to 6 months after the second dose against all four dengue serotypes, with no important safety risks identified during the trial.

Persistence of Immunogenicity of a Purified Inactivated Zika Virus Vaccine Candidate in Healthy Adults: 2 Years of Follow-up Compared With Natural Infection

BACKGROUND

We report 2-year persistence of immune response to Takeda's prophylactic purified formalin-inactivated whole Zika virus vaccine candidate (TAK-426) compared with that observed after natural infection.

METHODS

A randomized, observer-blind, placebo-controlled, dose-selection, phase 1 trial was conducted in 18-49-year-old adults at 9 centers (7 in the United States, 2 in Puerto Rico) from 13 November 2017 to 24 November 2020. Primary objectives were safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of 3 increasing doses of TAK-426 administered as 2 doses 28 days apart to flavivirus (FV)-naive and FV-primed adults. Here, we report on safety and persistence of immunity up to 2 years after primary vaccination with 10-μg TAK-426, the highest dose, and compare neutralizing antibody responses with those observed after natural infection.

RESULTS

TAK-426 at 10-μg had an acceptable safety profile in FV-naive and FV-primed adults up to 24 months after dose 2. Seropositivity for neutralizing antibodies was 100% at 1 year, and 93.8% and 76.2% at 2 years in FV-naive and FV-primed groups, respectively. TAK-426 responses were comparable in magnitude and kinetics with those elicited by natural Zika virus infection.

CONCLUSIONS

These results support the further clinical development of TAK-426 for both FV-naive and FV-primed populations.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT03343626.

Bridging the immunogenicity of a tetravalent dengue vaccine (TAK-003) from children and adolescents to adults

Immunobridging is an important methodology that can be used to extrapolate vaccine efficacy estimates to populations not evaluated in clinical studies, and that has been successfully used in developing many vaccines. Dengue, caused by a mosquito-transmitted flavivirus endemic to many tropical and subtropical regions, is traditionally thought of as a pediatric disease but is now a global threat to both children and adults. We bridged immunogenicity data from a phase 3 efficacy study of a tetravalent dengue vaccine (TAK-003), performed in children and adolescents living in endemic areas, with an immunogenicity study in adults in non-endemic areas. Neutralizing antibody responses were comparable in both studies following receipt of a two-dose TAK-003 schedule (months 0 and 3). Similar immune responses were observed across exploratory assessments of additional humoral responses. These data support the potential for clinical efficacy of TAK-003 in adults.

Risks of Heart Failure, Stroke, and Bleeding in Atrial Fibrillation According to Heart Failure Phenotypes

BACKGROUND

The risks of heart failure (HF) events compared with stroke/systemic embolic events (SEE) or major bleeding (MB) in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) vs heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) in a large atrial fibrillation (AF) population have not been well-studied.

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to assess HF outcomes, according to HF history and HF phenotypes (HFrEF vs HFpEF), and compare these events with SEE and MB, among patients with AF.

METHODS

We analyzed patients enrolled in the ENGAGE-AF TIMI 48 (Effective Anticoagulation with Factor Xa Next Generation in AF-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 48) trial. Cumulative incidence of heart failure hospitalization (HHF) or HF death was assessed and compared with the rates of fatal and nonfatal stroke/SEE and MB over a median follow-up of 2.8 years.

RESULTS

Overall, 12,124 (57.4%) had a history of HF (37.7% HFrEF, 40.1% HFpEF, 22.1% with unknown ejection fraction). The rate per 100 person-years (py) of HHF or HF death (4.95; 95% CI: 4.70-5.20) was higher than of fatal and nonfatal stroke/SEE (1.77; 95% CI: 1.63-1.92) and MB (2.66; 95% CI: 2.47-2.86) among patients with HF history. HFrEF patients experienced a higher rate of HHF or HF death compared with HFpEF patients (7.15 vs 3.65; P < 0.001), while the rates of fatal and nonfatal stroke/SEE and MB were similar by HF phenotype. Patients with HF history had a higher rate of mortality after a HHF (1.29; 95% CI: 1.17-1.42) than after a stroke/SEE (0.69; 95% CI: 0.60-0.78) or after MB (0.61; 95% CI: 0.53-0.70). Overall, patients with nonparoxysmal AF had a higher rate of HF and stroke/SEE events regardless of HF history.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with AF and HF, regardless of ejection fraction, are at a higher risk of HF events with higher subsequent mortality rates than of stroke/SEE or MB. While HFrEF is associated with a higher risk of HF events than HFpEF, the risk of stroke/SEE and MB is similar between HFrEF and HFpEF.

Edoxaban versus Warfarin in high-risk patients with atrial fibrillation: A comprehensive analysis of high-risk subgroups

BACKGROUND

To compare the efficacy and safety of edoxaban vs warfarin in high-risk subgroups.

METHODS

ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 was a multicenter randomized, double-blind, controlled trial in 21,105 patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) within 12 months and CHADS₂ score >2 randomized to higher-dose edoxaban regimen (HDER) 60 mg/reduced 30 mg, lower-dose edoxaban regimen (LDER) 30 mg/reduced 15 mg, or warfarin, and followed for 2.8 years (median). The primary outcome for this analysis was the net clinical outcome (NCO), a composite of stroke/systemic embolism events, major bleeding, or death. Multivariable risk-stratification analysis was used to categorize patients by the number of high-risk features.

RESULTS

The annualized NCO rates in the warfarin arm were highest in patients with malignancy (19.2%), increased fall risk (14.0%), and very-low body weight (13.5%). The NCO rates increased with the numbers of high-risk factors in the warfarin arm: 4.5%, 7.2%, 9.9% and 14.6% in patients with 0 to 1, 2, 3, and >4 risk factors, respectively (P_trend <0.001). Versus warfarin, HDER was associated with significant reductions of NCO in most of the subgroups: elderly, patients with moderate renal dysfunction, prior stroke/TIA, of Asian race, very-low body weight, concomitant single antiplatelet therapy, and VKA-naïve. With more high-risk features (0->4+), the absolute risk reductions favoring edoxaban over warfarin increased: 0.3%->2.0% for HDER; 0.4%->3.4% for LDER vs warfarin (P = .065 and P < .001, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

While underuse of anticoagulation in high-risk patients with AF remains common, substitution of effective and safer alternatives to warfarin, such as edoxaban, represents an opportunity to improve clinical outcomes.

Clinical Application of a Novel Genetic Risk Score for Ischemic Stroke in Patients With Cardiometabolic Disease

BACKGROUND

Genome-wide association studies have identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms that are associated with an increased risk of stroke. We sought to determine whether a genetic risk score (GRS) could identify subjects at higher risk for ischemic stroke after accounting for traditional clinical risk factors in 5 trials across the spectrum of cardiometabolic disease.

METHODS

Subjects who had consented for genetic testing and who were of European ancestry from the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 (Effective Anticoagulation with Factor Xa Next Generation in Atrial Fibrillation), SOLID-TIMI 52 (Stabilization of Plaques Using Darapladib), SAVOR-TIMI 53 (Saxagliptin Assessment of Vascular Outcomes Recorded in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus), PEGASUS-TIMI 54 (Prevention of Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Prior Heart Attack Using Ticagrelor Compared to Placebo on a Background of Aspirin), and FOURIER (Further Cardiovascular Outcomes Research With PCSK9 Inhibition in Patients With Elevated Risk) trials were included in this analysis. A set of 32 single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with ischemic stroke was used to calculate a GRS in each patient and identify tertiles of genetic risk. A Cox model was used to calculate hazard ratios for ischemic stroke across genetic risk groups, adjusted for clinical risk factors.

RESULTS

In 51 288 subjects across the 5 trials, a total of 960 subjects had an ischemic stroke over a median follow-up period of 2.5 years. After adjusting for clinical risk factors, a higher GRS was strongly and independently associated with increased risk for ischemic stroke (P trend=0.009). In comparison with individuals in the lowest third of the GRS, individuals in the middle and top tertiles of the GRS had adjusted hazard ratios of 1.15 (95% CI, 0.98-1.36) and 1.24 (95% CI 1.05-1.45) for ischemic stroke, respectively. Stratification into subgroups revealed that the performance of the GRS appeared stronger in the primary prevention cohort with an adjusted hazard ratio for the top versus lowest tertile of 1.27 (95% CI, 1.04-1.53), in comparison with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.06 (95% CI, 0.81-1.41) in subjects with previous stroke. In an exploratory analysis of patients with atrial fibrillation and CHA₂DS₂-VASc score of 2, high genetic risk conferred a 4-fold higher risk of stroke and an absolute risk equivalent to those with CHA₂DS₂-VASc score of 3.

CONCLUSIONS

Across a broad spectrum of subjects with cardiometabolic disease, a 32-single-nucleotide polymorphism GRS was a strong, independent predictor of ischemic stroke. In patients with atrial fibrillation but lower CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores, the GRS identified patients with risk comparable to those with higher CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores.

Two Clinical Prediction Tools to Improve Tuberculosis Contact Investigation

BACKGROUND

Efficient contact investigation strategies are needed for the early diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) disease and treatment of latent TB infections.

METHODS

Between September 2009 and August 2012, we conducted a prospective cohort study in Lima, Peru, in which we enrolled and followed 14 044 household contacts of adults with pulmonary TB. We used information from a subset of this cohort to derive 2 clinical prediction tools that identify contacts of TB patients at elevated risk of progressing to active disease by training multivariable models that predict (1) coprevalent TB among all household contacts and (2) 1-year incident TB among adult contacts. We validated the models in a geographically distinct subcohort and compared the relative utilities of clinical decisions based on these tools to existing strategies.

RESULTS

In our cohort, 296 (2.1%) household contacts had coprevalent TB and 145 (1.9%) adult contacts developed incident TB within 1 year of index patient diagnosis. We predicted coprevalent disease using information that could be readily obtained at the time an index patient was diagnosed and predicted 1-year incident TB by including additional contact-specific characteristics. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for coprevalent TB and incident TB were 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI], .83-.89]) and 0.72 (95% CI, .67-.77), respectively. These clinical tools give 5%-10% higher relative utilities than existing methods.

CONCLUSIONS

We present 2 tools that identify household contacts at high risk for TB disease based on reportable information from patient and contacts alone. The performance of these tools is comparable to biomarkers that are both more costly and less feasible than this approach.

Edoxaban Versus Warfarin in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and History of Liver Disease

BACKGROUND

Patients with liver disease have increased risk of thrombosis and bleeding but are typically excluded from trials of direct oral anticoagulant agents.

OBJECTIVES

This study evaluated the pharmacokinetics (PK), pharmacodynamics (PD), clinical efficacy and safety of edoxaban versus warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and history of liver disease.

METHODS

ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 (Effective Anticoagulation With Factor Xa Next Generation in Atrial Fibrillation-Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction Study 48) was a randomized, double-blind trial comparing edoxaban with warfarin in patients with AF followed for 2.8 years. History of liver disease was defined as investigator-reported liver disease or >2-fold transaminase elevation at randomization. The primary efficacy and safety endpoints of stroke or systemic embolic event (SSEE) and major bleeding were assessed stratified by history of liver disease. PK/PD assessments of edoxaban included endogenous and extrinsic factor Xa activity and edoxaban concentration.

RESULTS

Among 21,105 patients, 1,083 (5.1%) had a history of liver disease; they had a higher prevalence of many comorbidities. The adjusted risks of SSEE were similar (adjusted hazard ratio [HR_adj]: 0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67 to 1.22; p = 0.50), but major bleeding was more common in patients with liver disease (HR_adj: 1.38; 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.74; p = 0.005). There were no significant differences in PK/PD assessment of edoxaban in patients with versus without liver disease. The HRs for higher-dose edoxaban versus warfarin for SSEE were 0.86 (95% CI: 0.73 to 1.01) in patients without and 1.11 (95% CI: 0.54 to 2.30) with liver disease (p for interaction [p_int] = 0.47), major bleeding 0.80 (95% CI: 0.70 to 0.91) in patients without and 0.91 (95% CI: 0.56 to 1.47) with liver disease (p_int = 0.63). There were no significant differences in hepatic adverse events between the 2 treatment groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with AF receiving oral anticoagulation, bleeding, but not thromboembolic events, was increased in patients with liver disease. A history of liver disease did not alter the relative efficacy and safety of edoxaban compared with warfarin. Hepatic adverse events were similar between edoxaban and warfarin.

Performance of the ABC Scores for Assessing the Risk of Stroke or Systemic Embolism and Bleeding in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation in ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48

BACKGROUND

The ABC (age, biomarker, clinical history)-stroke and ABC-bleeding risk scores incorporate clinical variables and cardiovascular biomarkers to estimate risk of stroke or systemic embolic events and bleeding, respectively, in patients with atrial fibrillation. These scores have been proposed for routine clinical use, but their performance in external cohorts remains uncertain.

METHODS

ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 (Effective Anticoagulation With Factor Xa Next Generation in Atrial Fibrillation-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 48) was a multinational randomized trial of the oral factor Xa inhibitor edoxaban in patients with atrial fibrillation and a CHADS₂ score ≥2. We performed a nested prospective biomarker study in 8705 patients, analyzing baseline high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT), NT-proBNP (N-terminal B-type natriuretic peptide), and growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), as well as in serial samples after 12 months. The ABC-stroke (age, prior stroke/transient ischemic attack, hsTnT, NT-proBNP) and ABC-bleeding (age, prior bleeding, hemoglobin, hsTnT, and GDF-15) scores were tested. Hazard ratios were adjusted for estimated glomerular filtration rate and the components of the CHA₂DS₂-VASc and HAS-BLED scores, respectively. Discrimination and reclassification were compared with these established scores.

RESULTS

Median baseline hsTnT, NT-proBNP, and GDF-15 levels were 13.7 ng/L (25th-75th percentiles, 9.6-20.4 ng/L), 811 pg/mL (386-1436 pg/mL), and 1661 pg/mL (1179-2427 pg/mL), respectively. Elevated hsTnT, NT-proBNP, and GDF-15 were independently associated with higher rates of stroke or systemic embolic events, and elevated hsTnT and GDF-15 were independently associated with higher rates of major bleeding ( P<0.001 for each). The ABC-stroke and ABC-bleeding scores were well calibrated and yielded higher c indexes than the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score for stroke or systemic embolic events (0.67 [95% CI, 0.65-0.70] versus 0.59 [95% CI, 0.57-0.62]; P<0.001) and HAS-BLED score for major bleeding (0.69 [95% CI, 0.66-0.71] versus 0.62 [95% CI, 0.60-0.64]; P<0.001), respectively. The ABC-stroke and ABC-bleeding scores stratified patients within CHA₂DS₂-VASc and HAS-BLED risk categories ( P<0.001 for both). Patients with ABC-bleeding scores predicting a high 1-year risk of bleeding (>2%) derived greater benefit from treatment with edoxaban compared with warfarin.

CONCLUSIONS

The ABC-stroke and ABC-bleeding scores evaluated in this anticoagulated clinical trial cohort were well calibrated and outperformed the CHA₂DS₂-VASc and HAS-BLED scores, respectively. These scores may help identify patients most likely to derive a benefit from treatment with non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00781391.

Predicting Benefit From Evolocumab Therapy in Patients With Atherosclerotic Disease Using a Genetic Risk Score: Results From the FOURIER Trial

BACKGROUND

The ability of a genetic risk score to predict risk in established cardiovascular disease and identify individuals who derive greater benefit from PCSK9 (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9) inhibition has not been established.

METHODS

We studied 14 298 patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease from the FOURIER trial (Further Cardiovascular Outcomes Researh With PCSK9 Inhibition in Subjects With Elevated Risk). A 27-single-nucleotide polymorphism genetic risk score defined low (quintile 1), intermediate (quintiles 2-4), and high (quintile 5) genetic risk. Patients were also categorized by major atherosclerotic risk factors including diabetes mellitus, hypertension, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥100 mg/dl, and smoking; multiple (≥2) risk factors was considered high clinical risk. Outcomes consisted of major coronary events (coronary heart death, myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization) and major vascular events (major coronary events and ischemic stroke). Median follow-up was 2.3 years.

RESULTS

After we adjusted for clinical factors, the genetic risk score was associated with risk for both major vascular events (P_trend=0.005) and major coronary events (P_trend<0.0001). Individuals with intermediate and high genetic risk scores had 1.23- and 1.65-fold increased hazard for major coronary events, respectively. Elevated genetic risk was additive to major atherosclerotic risk factors and identified patients more likely to benefit from evolocumab. There was no benefit for major vascular events in patients without multiple clinical risk factors or high genetic risk (hazard ratio [HR], 1.02; absolute risk reduction [ARR], -0.2%, P=0.86). In contrast, there was a 13% relative risk reduction (HR, 0.87 [0.75-0.998], P=0.047) and a 1.4% ARR in patients with multiple clinical risk factors but without high genetic risk and a 31% relative risk reduction (HR, 0.69 [0.55-0.86], P=0.0012), and 4.0% ARR in patients with high genetic risk, irrespective of clinical risk (P_trend for HR=0.017, ARR P_trend=0.004). Patients with high genetic risk who received evolocumab had event rates similar to patients with a low burden of both genetic and clinical risk.

CONCLUSION

Patients without multiple clinical risk factors or high genetic risk had a low event rate and did not appear to derive benefit from evolocumab over 2.3 years. Conversely, patients with multiple clinical risk factors but without high genetic risk had intermediate risk and intermediate risk reduction. Patients with high genetic risk, regardless of clinical risk, had a high event rate and derived the greatest relative and absolute benefit from evolocumab, which mitigated this risk.

P3526Heart Failure hospitalization and mortality in non-valvular Atrial Fibrillation: The ENGAGE-AF TIMI 48 Trial

Introduction

Atrial Fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality. Heart Failure (HF) represents the most common CV complication, more common than thromboembolic events.

Purpose

We aimed to determine clinical factors associated with HF hospitalization and mortality in a contemporary cohort of patients with AF without previous history of HF.

Methods

The Effective Anticoagulation with Factor Xa Next Generation in AF–Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 48 (ENGAGE-AF TIMI 48) study tested the oral factor Xa inhibitor edoxaban in comparison with warfarin for the prevention of stroke or systemic embolism, in 21,105 patients with AF. We assessed the composite endpoint of HF hospitalization, death due to HF or sudden cardiac death in 8981 patients without a history of HF. Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the significant clinical predictors associated with the endpoint of interest.

Results

Over a median follow-up of 2.8 years, 589 patients (6.5%) experienced the composite endpoint. Older patients, cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, heart valve disease), history of stroke and coronary artery disease, impaired renal function (ClCr ≤50 ml/min), heart rate at baseline and diuretic use were associated with increased risk of the composite endpoint (model c-statistic 0.66) (Figure 1). Outcomes were not affected by randomization to edoxaban or warfarin. In patients with available cardiac-derived biomarkers, elevated levels of both NT-proBNP and Troponin I were significantly associated with the endpoint after adjustment for the clinical predictors (Figure 1). The addition of the biomarkers to clinical predictors enhanced risk estimation (c-statistics 0.69, NRI 0.40, IDI 0.01, all p<0.001 for NT-proBNP and c-statistics 0.70, NRI 0.43, IDI 0.03, all p<0.001 for Troponin I).

Figure 1

Conclusions

HF hospitalization and mortality are important complications in AF patients without a history of HF. The addition of cardiac biomarkers to clinical characteristics enhances risk estimation. These findings may improve risk stratification.

Comparison of Events Across Bleeding Scales in the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 Trial

BACKGROUND

Numerous scales exist for the classification of major bleeding events. Limited data compare the most commonly used bleeding scales within a single at-risk cohort of patients with atrial fibrillation. Here, we analyze bleeding outcomes according to the ISTH (International Society on Thrombosis and Hemostasis), TIMI (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction), GUSTO (Global Usage of Strategies to Open Occluded Arteries), and BARC (Bleeding Academic Research Consortium) bleeding scales in the ENGAGE AF (Effective Anticoagulation With Factor Xa Next Generation in Atrial Fibrillation)-TIMI 48 trial (NCT00781391) of edoxaban versus warfarin.

METHODS

A total of 21 105 patients with atrial fibrillation at risk for stroke (CHADS₂ score ≥2) were enrolled in the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial comparing warfarin with a higher- (60/30 mg daily) or lower- (30/15 mg daily) dose edoxaban regimen. Median follow-up was 2.8 years. Bleeding events occurring among on-treatment patients were examined. Annualized event rates were calculated by the ISTH, TIMI, GUSTO, and BARC scales and compared across treatment arms. Cox proportional hazards for a first bleeding event of each type were calculated for higher-dose edoxaban regimen vs warfarin and lower-dose edoxaban regimen versus warfarin.

RESULTS

A total of 10 311 bleeding events were reported. In a comparison of the most severe events in each scale, ISTH major bleeding was the most common (n=1289), followed by TIMI major (n=548), GUSTO severe/life-threatening (n=347), and BARC 3c+5 (n=276) bleeding. Lower bleeding risk with edoxaban compared with warfarin was seen regardless of bleeding scale (higher-dose edoxaban regimen range: hazard ratio [HR], 0.47 [95% CI, 0.35-0.62] for BARC 3c+5 versus HR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.71-0.91] for ISTH major; lower-dose edoxaban regimen range: HR, 0.32 [95% CI, 0.23-0.45] for BARC 3c+5 versus HR, 0.47 [95% CI, 0.41-0.55] for ISTH major). Furthermore, a gradient of more pronounced risk reduction with edoxaban was observed with greater severity of first bleeding event (higher-dose edoxaban regimen: HR, 0.47 [95% CI, 0.35-0.62] for BARC 3c+5 bleeds versus HR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.81-0.91] for any BARC bleed; lower-dose edoxaban regimen: HR, 0.32 [95% CI, 0.23-0.45] for BARC 3c+5 bleeds versus HR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.63-0.72] for any BARC bleed). The direction of this trend was consistent for both gastrointestinal bleeding and nongastrointestinal bleeding.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with atrial fibrillation at risk for stroke, there was a >4-fold difference in the frequency of the most severe bleeding events across commonly used bleeding scales. Furthermore, the relative safety of edoxaban compared with warfarin tended to increase with greater severity of bleeding.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00781391.

Association of the coronary artery disease risk gene GUCY1A3 with ischaemic events after coronary intervention

Aim

A common genetic variant at the GUCY1A3 coronary artery disease locus has been shown to influence platelet aggregation. The risk of ischaemic events including stent thrombosis varies with the efficacy of aspirin to inhibit platelet reactivity. This study sought to investigate whether homozygous GUCY1A3 (rs7692387) risk allele carriers display higher on-aspirin platelet reactivity and risk of ischaemic events early after coronary intervention.

Methods and results

The association of GUCY1A3 genotype and on-aspirin platelet reactivity was analysed in the genetics substudy of the ISAR-ASPI registry (n = 1678) using impedance aggregometry. The clinical outcome cardiovascular death or stent thrombosis within 30 days after stenting was investigated in a meta-analysis of substudies of the ISAR-ASPI registry, the PLATO trial (n = 3236), and the Utrecht Coronary Biobank (n = 1003) comprising a total 5917 patients. Homozygous GUCY1A3 risk allele carriers (GG) displayed increased on-aspirin platelet reactivity compared with non-risk allele (AA/AG) carriers [150 (interquartile range 91–209) vs. 134 (85–194) AU⋅min, P < 0.01]. More homozygous risk allele carriers, compared with non-risk allele carriers, were assigned to the high-risk group for ischaemic events (>203 AU⋅min; 29.5 vs. 24.2%, P = 0.02). Homozygous risk allele carriers were also at higher risk for cardiovascular death or stent thrombosis (hazard ratio 1.70, 95% confidence interval 1.08–2.68; P = 0.02). Bleeding risk was not altered.

Conclusion

We conclude that homozygous GUCY1A3 risk allele carriers are at increased risk of cardiovascular death or stent thrombosis within 30 days after coronary stenting, likely due to higher on-aspirin platelet reactivity. Whether GUCY1A3 genotype helps to tailor antiplatelet treatment remains to be investigated.

Nitric Oxide Decreases Acute Kidney Injury and Stage 3 Chronic Kidney Disease after Cardiac Surgery

RATIONALE

No medical intervention has been identified that decreases acute kidney injury and improves renal outcome at 1 year after cardiac surgery.

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether administration of nitric oxide reduces the incidence of postoperative acute kidney injury and improves long-term kidney outcomes after multiple cardiac valve replacement requiring prolonged cardiopulmonary bypass.

METHODS

Two hundred and forty-four patients undergoing elective, multiple valve replacement surgery, mostly due to rheumatic fever, were randomized to receive either nitric oxide (treatment) or nitrogen (control). Nitric oxide and nitrogen were administered via the gas exchanger during cardiopulmonary bypass and by inhalation for 24 hours postoperatively.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The primary outcome was as follows: oxidation of ferrous plasma oxyhemoglobin to ferric methemoglobin was associated with reduced postoperative acute kidney injury from 64% (control group) to 50% (nitric oxide group) (relative risk [RR], 0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.62-0.97; P = 0.014). Secondary outcomes were as follows: at 90 days, transition to stage 3 chronic kidney disease was reduced from 33% in the control group to 21% in the treatment group (RR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.41-0.99; P = 0.024) and at 1 year, from 31% to 18% (RR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.36-0.96; P = 0.017). Nitric oxide treatment reduced the overall major adverse kidney events at 30 days (RR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.18-0.92; P = 0.016), 90 days (RR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.17-0.92; P = 0.015), and 1 year (RR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.20-1.10; P = 0.041).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients undergoing multiple valve replacement and prolonged cardiopulmonary bypass, administration of nitric oxide decreased the incidence of acute kidney injury, transition to stage 3 chronic kidney disease, and major adverse kidney events at 30 days, 90 days, and 1 year. Clinical trial registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01802619).

Outdoor particulate matter (PM10) exposure and lung cancer risk in the EAGLE study

Objective

Cohort studies in Europe, but not in North-America, showed an association between exposure to outdoor particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm (PM₁₀) and lung cancer risk. Only a case-control study on lung cancer and PM₁₀ in South Korea has so far been performed. For the first time in Europe we analyzed quantitatively this association using a case-control study design in highly polluted areas in Italy.

Methods

The Environment And Genetics in Lung cancer Etiology (EAGLE) study, a population-based case-control study performed in the period 2002–2005 in the Lombardy Region, north-west Italy, enrolled 2099 cases and 2120 controls frequency-matched for area of residence, gender, and age. For this study we selected subjects with complete active and passive smoking history living in the same municipality since 1980 until study enrollment. Fine resolution annual PM₁₀ estimates obtained by applying land use regression modeling to satellite data calibrated with fixed site monitor measurements were used. We assigned each subject the PM₁₀ average estimates for year 2000 based on enrollment address. We used logistic regression models to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) adjusted for matching variables, education, smoking, and dietary and occupational variables.

Results

We included 3473 subjects, 1665 cases (1318 men, 347 women) and 1808 controls (1368 men, 440 women), with PM₁₀ individual levels ranging from 2.3 to 53.8 μg/m³ (mean: 46.3). We found increasing lung cancer risk with increasing PM₁₀ category (P-value for trend: 0.04). The OR per 10 μg/m³ was 1.28 (95% CI: 0.95–1.72). The association appeared stronger for squamous cell carcinoma (OR 1.44, 95% CI: 0.90–2.29).

Conclusion

In a population living in highly polluted areas in Italy, our study added suggestive evidence of a positive association between PM₁₀ exposure and lung cancer risk. This study emphasizes the need to strengthen policies to reduce airborne pollution.

Edoxaban in atrial fibrillation patients with established coronary artery disease: Insights from ENGAGE AF–TIMI 48

Background:

The relative efficacy and safety profile of the oral Factor Xa inhibitor edoxaban compared with warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation and established coronary artery disease (CAD) has not been analyzed.

Materials and methods:

In the ENGAGE AF–TIMI 48 trial, two edoxaban regimens were compared with warfarin in 21,105 patients with atrial fibrillation and CHADS2 ⩾2. We analyzed the primary trial endpoints (efficacy: stroke or systemic embolic event, safety: International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis major bleeding) in patients with versus without CAD, and used interaction testing to assess for treatment effect modification.

Results:

The 4510 patients (21.4%) with known CAD were older, more likely male, on aspirin, with lower creatinine clearance and higher CHADS2 and HAS-BLED scores ( p <0.001 for each). Treatment with the higher-dose edoxaban regimen (versus warfarin) in patients with known CAD tended to have a greater reduction in stroke/systemic embolic event compared with patients without CAD (CAD: hazard ratio 0.65 (0.46–0.92) versus no CAD: hazard ratio 0.94 (0.79–1.12), p-INT 0.062) and also in myocardial infarction (CAD: hazard ratio 0.69 (0.49–0.98) versus no CAD: hazard ratio 1.24 (0.89–1.72), p-INT 0.017), while there was a similar reduction in bleeding irrespective of CAD status (hazard ratio 0.81 and 0.80, p-INT 0.97). Presence or absence of CAD did not modify the efficacy or safety profile of the lower-dose edoxaban regimen (versus warfarin).

Conclusion:

The reduction in ischemic events with the higher-dose edoxaban regimen versus warfarin was greater in patients with CAD, while bleeding was significantly reduced with edoxaban regardless of CAD status. The efficacy and safety profile of the lower-dose edoxaban regimen relative to warfarin was unaffected by CAD status.

A novel risk prediction score in atrial fibrillation for a net clinical outcome from the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 randomized clinical trial

Aims

The choice between initiating a non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC) and a vitamin K antagonist (VKA) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) may be challenging. To assist in this decision, we developed a risk score to identify patients for whom a therapeutic benefit of NOACs over VKA is predicted.

Methods and results

ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 was a randomized clinical trial of edoxaban vs. warfarin in 21 105 patients with AF. Cox proportional hazard models identified factors associated with a serious net clinical outcome (NCO) of disabling stroke, life-threatening bleeding, and all-cause mortality in VKA naïve patients from the warfarin arm. These were used to develop an integer risk score. Performance was assessed by C-indices and validation by bootstrapping. Kaplan-Meier analyses were stratified by three score categories and treatment arm. Over a median of 2.7 years, 457 NCO events occurred in 2898 patients with a total person-time of 7549.5 years (6.05%/year). The risk prediction model (C = 0.693) for the NCO was translated into a 17-point integer score, with annualized event rates for the low, intermediate, and high-risk categories in the warfarin arm of 3.5%, 9.9%, and 20.8%, respectively. Therapeutic benefit of higher- and lower-dose edoxaban over warfarin was demonstrated in the high- and intermediate-risk, with equal benefit in the low-risk categories (P-interaction 0.008 and 0.014, respectively).

Conclusion

In VKA naive patients with AF, the TIMI-AF score can assist in the prediction of a poor composite outcome and guide selection of anticoagulant therapy by identifying a differential clinical benefit with a NOAC or VKA.

Clinical events after interruption of anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation: An analysis from the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial

BACKGROUND

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who interrupt anticoagulation are at high risk of thromboembolism and death.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Patients enrolled in the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial (randomized comparison of edoxaban vs. warfarin) who interrupted study anticoagulant for >3 days were identified. Clinical events (ischemic stroke/systemic embolism, major cardiac and cerebrovascular events [MACCE]) were analyzed from day 4 after interruption until day 34 or study drug resumption. During 2.8 years median follow-up, 13,311 (63%) patients interrupted study drug for >3 days. After excluding those who received open-label anticoagulation during the at-risk window, the population for analysis included 9148 patients. The rates of ischemic stroke/systemic embolism and MACCE post interruption were substantially greater than in patients who never interrupted (15.42 vs. 0.26 and 60.82 vs. 0.36 per 100 patient-years, respectively, p_adj < .001). Patients who interrupted study drug for an adverse event (44.1% of the cohort), compared to those who interrupted for other reasons, had an increased risk of MACCE (HR_adj 2.75; 95% CI 2.02-3.74, p < .0001), but similar rates of ischemic stroke/systemic embolism. Rates of clinical events after interruption of warfarin and edoxaban were similar.

CONCLUSION

Interruption of study drug was frequent in patients with AF and was associated with a substantial risk of major cardiac and cerebrovascular events over the ensuing 30 days. This risk was particularly high in patients who interrupted as a result of an adverse event; these patients deserve close monitoring and resumption of anticoagulation as soon as it is safe to do so.

Accounting for adaptation and intensity in projecting heat wave-related mortality

BACKGROUND

How adaptation and intensity of heat waves affect heat wave-related mortality is unclear, making health projections difficult.

METHODS

We estimated the effect of heat waves, the effect of the intensity of heat waves, and adaptation on mortality in 209 U.S. cities with 168 million people during 1962-2006. We improved the standard time-series models by incorporating the intensity of heat waves using excess heat factor (EHF) and estimating adaptation empirically using interactions with yearly mean summer temperature (MST). We combined the epidemiological estimates for heat wave, intensity, and adaptation with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset to project heat wave-related mortality by 2050.

RESULTS

The effect of heat waves increased with its intensity. Adaptation to heat waves occurred, which was shown by the decreasing effect of heat waves with MST. However, adaptation was lessened as MST increased. Ignoring adaptation in projections would result in a substantial overestimate of the projected heat wave-related mortality (by 277-747% in 2050). Incorporating the empirically estimated adaptation into projections would result in little change in the projected heat wave-related mortality between 2006 and 2050. This differs regionally, however, with increasing mortality over time for cities in the southern and western U.S. but decreasing mortality over time for the north.

CONCLUSIONS

Accounting for adaptation is important to reduce bias in the projections of heat wave-related mortality. The finding that the southern and western U.S. are the areas that face increasing heat-related deaths is novel, and indicates that more regional adaptation strategies are needed.

Sudden Cardiac Death in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: Insights From the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 Trial

Background

Recent findings suggest that atrial fibrillation is associated with sudden cardiac death (SCD). We examined the incidence, characteristics, and factors associated with SCD in patients with atrial fibrillation.

Methods and Results

SCD was defined as witnessed death ≤60 minutes from the onset of new symptoms or unwitnessed death 1 to 24 hours after being observed alive, without another known cause of death. Predictors of SCD were examined using multivariate competing risks models. Over 2.8 years (median), 2349 patients died (40.5 per 1000 patient‐years), of which 1668 (71%) were cardiovascular deaths. SCD was the most common cause of cardiovascular death (n=749; median age 73 years; 70.6% male). Most SCD events occurred out of hospital (92.8%) and without prior symptoms (66.0%). Predictors of SCD included low ejection fraction, heart failure, and prior myocardial infarction (P<0.001 for each). Additional significant baseline predictors of SCD, but not of other causes of death, included male sex, electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy, higher heart rate, nonuse of beta blockers, and use of digitalis. The latter was associated with SCD in patients with or without heart failure (adjusted hazard ratio 1.55 [95% CI 1.29–1.86] and 1.56 [95% CI 1.14–2.11], respectively; P_interaction=0.73). The rate of SCD was numerically but not statistically lower with edoxaban (1.20% per year with lower dose edoxaban; 1.28% per year with higher dose edoxaban) compared with warfarin (1.40% per year).

Conclusion

SCD is the most common cause of cardiovascular death in patients with atrial fibrillation and has several distinct predictors, some of which are modifiable. These findings may be considered in planning research and treatment strategies for patients with atrial fibrillation.

Clinical Trial Registration

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00781391.

Efficacy and safety of edoxaban compared with warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation and heart failure: insights from ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48

AIMS

In the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial, edoxaban, a factor Xa inhibitor, was not found to be inferior to warfarin for the prevention of stroke or systemic embolic events (SEE) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and was associated with significantly less bleeding. The higher-dose edoxaban regimen (HDER; 60 mg dose-reduced to 30 mg once daily) has been approved in various countries in Europe, the USA, and Japan. Among patients treated with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs), symptomatic heart failure (HF) is an independent risk factor for lower time-in-therapeutic range, which reduces the efficacy and safety of VKA therapy. We evaluated the efficacy and safety of edoxaban compared with warfarin across the spectrum of HF severity in the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Of 14 071 patients randomized to well-controlled warfarin or the HDER, 5926 (42%) had no history of HF, 6344 (45%) were in New York Heart Association (NYHA) class I-II, and 1801 (13%) were in NYHA class III-IV. The efficacy of edoxaban compared with warfarin in preventing stroke/SEE was similar in patients without and with HF regardless of the severity of HF; [HDER vs. warfarin: No-HF: hazard ratio (HR) 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69-1.11; NYHA class I-II: HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.69-1.12; NYHA class III-IV: HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.55-1.25; Pinteraction = 0.97]. Compared with warfarin, HDER was consistently associated with lower risk of major bleeding (No-HF: HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.68-0.99; NYHA class I-II: HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.65-0.96; NYHA class III-IV: HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.54-1.17; Pinteraction = 0.96).

CONCLUSION

The relative efficacy and safety of HDER compared with well-managed warfarin in AF patients with HF were similar to those without HF.

Efficacy and Safety of Edoxaban in Elderly Patients With Atrial Fibrillation in the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 Trial

Background

Elderly patients with atrial fibrillation are at higher risk of both ischemic and bleeding events compared to younger patients. In a prespecified analysis from the ENGAGE AF‐TIMI 48 trial, we evaluate clinical outcomes with edoxaban versus warfarin according to age.

Methods and Results

Twenty‐one thousand one‐hundred and five patients enrolled in the ENGAGE AF‐TIMI 48 trial were stratified into 3 prespecified age groups: <65 (n=5497), 65 to 74 (n=7134), and ≥75 (n=8474) years. Older patients were more likely to be female, with lower body weight and reduced creatinine clearance, leading to higher rates of edoxaban dose reduction (10%, 18%, and 41% for the 3 age groups, P<0.001). Stroke or systemic embolic event (1.1%, 1.8%, and 2.3%) and major bleeding (1.8%, 3.3%, and 4.8%) rates with warfarin increased across age groups (P_trend<0.001 for both). There were no interactions between age group and randomized treatment in the primary efficacy and safety outcomes. In the elderly (≥75 years), the rates of stroke/systemic embolic event were similar with edoxaban versus warfarin (hazard ratio 0.83 [0.66–1.04]), while major bleeding was significantly reduced with edoxaban (hazard ratio 0.83 [0.70–0.99]). The absolute risk difference in major bleeding (−82 events/10 000 pt‐yrs) and in intracranial hemorrhage (−73 events/10 000 pt‐yrs) both favored edoxaban over warfarin in older patients.

Conclusions

Age has a greater influence on major bleeding than thromboembolic risk in patients with atrial fibrillation. Given the higher rates of bleeding and death with increasing age, treatment of elderly patients with edoxaban provides an even greater absolute reduction in safety events over warfarin, compared to treatment with edoxaban versus warfarin in younger patients.

Clinical Trial Registration

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/. Unique identifier: NCT00781391.

Diabetes mellitus, CYP2C19 genotype, and response to escalating doses of clopidogrel. Insights from the ELEVATE-TIMI 56 Trial

Both diabetes mellitus (DM) and carriage of the CYP2C19*2 allele are associated with a reduced response to clopidogrel. The relative contributions of these factors and whether higher clopidogrel doses can overcome both factors remain unknown. The objective of this study was to test the ability of clopidogrel doses up to 300 mg daily to decrease platelet reactivity in patients with DM and/or CYP2C19*2. ELEVATE-TIMI 56 randomised 333 patients with coronary artery disease to different maintenance doses of clopidogrel in four treatment periods, each lasting approximately 14 days. On-treatment platelet reactivity was compared between patients stratified by DM, CYP2C19*2 status and clopidogrel dose. Both DM and CYP2C19*2 were independently associated with elevated on-treatment platelet reactivity with clopidogrel 75 mg daily (p<0.0001 for each). With 75 mg, mean on-treatment PRU was progressively higher (p trend <0.001) when evaluating patients: with neither DM nor CYP2C19*2 (150.7; 95 % CI 140.5-162.6), with only DM (187.2; 95 % CI, 171.3-206.9), with only CYP2C19*2 (227.9; 95 % CI, 205.1-250.8), and with both DM and CYP2C19*2 (239.9; 95 % CI, 209.7-270.1). Notably, with 75 mg, patients with only CYP2C19*2 had higher on-treatment platelet reactivity than those with only DM (p=0.0068). To achieve on-treatment platelet reactivity similar to that seen with clopidogrel 75 mg in patients with neither DM nor CYP2C19*2, the following doses were required: 150 mg with only DM, 225 mg with only CYP2C19*2, and 300 mg with both DM and CYP2C19*2. Patients with both DM and CYP2C19*2 required a four-fold increase in clopidogrel maintenance dose as compared to patients without these factors to achieve a similar antiplatelet response.

Concomitant Use of Single Antiplatelet Therapy With Edoxaban or Warfarin in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: Analysis From the ENGAGE AF-TIMI48 Trial

Background

We studied the concomitant use of single antiplatelet therapy (SAPT) on the efficacy and safety of the anti‐Xa agent edoxaban in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF).

Methods and Results

ENGAGE AF‐TIMI 48 was a randomized trial that compared 2 dose regimens of edoxaban with warfarin. We studied both the approved high‐dose edoxaban regimen (HDER; 60 mg daily reduced by one half in patients with anticipated increased drug exposure), as well as a lower‐dose edoxaban regimen (LDER; 30 mg daily, also reduced by one half in patients with anticipated increased drug regimen). SAPT (aspirin in 92.5%) was administered at the discretion of the treating physician. Cox proportional hazard regressions stratified by SAPT at 3 months with treatment as a covariate were performed. The 4912 patients who received SAPT were more frequently male, with histories of coronary artery disease and diabetes, and had higher CHADS₂Vasc and HAS BLED scores than did the 14 977 patients not receiving SAPT. When compared to patients not receiving SAPT, those receiving SAPT had a higher incidence of major bleeding; (adjusted hazard ratio [HR_adj]=1.46; 95% CI, 1.27–1.67, P<0.001). SAPT did not alter the relative efficacy of edoxaban compared to warfarin in preventing stroke or systemic embolic events (SEEs): edoxaban versus warfarin without SAPT, hazard ratio (HR_adj for HDER)=0.94; (95% CI: 0.77–1.15) with SAPT, HR_adj=0.70 (95% CI: 0.50–0.98), P interaction (P_int)=0.14. (HR_adj for LDER versus warfarin without SAPT=1.19 (95% CI 0.99–1.43) With SAPT, 1.03 (95% CI, 0.76–1.39) P_int=0.42. Major bleeding was lower with edoxaban than warfarin both without SAPT, HR_adj for HDER=0.80 (95% CI, 0.68–0.95), and with SAPT, HR_adj=0.82 (95% CI, 0.65–1.03; P_int=0.91). For LDER without SAPT (HR_adj=0.56 [95% CI 0.46–0.67]) and with SAPT (HR_adj=0.51 [95% CI 0.39–0.66]).

Conclusions

Patients with AF who were selected by their physicians to receive SAPT in addition to an anticoagulant had a similar risk of stroke/SEE and higher rates of bleeding than those not receiving SAPT. Edoxaban exhibited similar relative efficacy and reduced bleeding compared to warfarin, with or without concomitant SAPT.

Clinical Trial Registration

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/. Unique identifier: NCT00781391.

Edoxaban vs warfarin in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation in the US Food and Drug Administration approval population: An analysis from the Effective Anticoagulation with Factor Xa Next Generation in Atrial Fibrillation-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 48 (ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48) trial

BACKGROUND

Edoxaban is a specific anti-Xa inhibitor that, in comparison to warfarin, has been found to be noninferior for the prevention of stroke or systemic embolism (SSE) and to reduce bleeding significantly in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF). The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the higher-dose edoxaban regimen (60/30 mg) in patients with AF and a creatinine clearance of ≤95 mL/min. We report for the first time the clinical characteristics, efficacy, and safety of the FDA-approved population in the ENGAGE AF--TIMI 48 trial.

METHODS

The patients included had been treated with either warfarin or edoxaban 60/30 mg and had a creatinine clearance of ≤95 mL/min. The primary efficacy was SSE, and the principal safety end point was major bleeding (International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis classification). Median follow-up was 2.8 years.

RESULTS

Patients in the FDA-approved cohort were older, were more likely female, and had higher CHADS2 and HAS-BLED scores, as compared with patients not included in the FDA label. The primary end point occurred in 1.63%/y with edoxaban vs 2.02%/y with warfarin (hazard ratio [HR] 0.81, 95% CI 0.67-0.97, P = .023). Edoxaban significantly reduced the rate of hemorrhagic stroke (HR 0.47, 95% CI 0.31-0.72, P < .001) and cardiovascular death (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.73-0.97, P = .015). Ischemic stroke rates were similar between the treatment groups (1.31%/y vs 1.39%/y, P = .97). Major bleeding was significantly lower with edoxaban (3.16%/y vs 3.77%/y; HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.72-0.98, P = .023).

CONCLUSION

In the FDA-approved cohort of the ENGAGE AF--TIMI 48 trial, treatment with edoxaban 60/30 mg was superior to warfarin in the prevention of SSE and significantly reduced cardiovascular death and bleeding, especially fatal bleeding and hemorrhagic stroke.

A risk prediction model for xerostomia: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the prevalence of xerostomia in dental patients and built a xerostomia risk prediction model by incorporating a wide range of risk factors.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Socio-demographic data, past medical history, self-reported dry mouth and related symptoms were collected retrospectively from January 2010 to September 2013 for all new dental patients. A logistic regression framework was used to build a risk prediction model for xerostomia. External validation was performed using an independent data set to test the prediction power.

RESULTS

A total of 12 682 patients were included in this analysis (54.3%, females). Xerostomia was reported by 12.2% of patients. The proportion of people reporting xerostomia was higher among those who were taking more medications (OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.08-1.13) or recreational drug users (OR = 1.4, 95% CI = 1.1-1.9). Rheumatic diseases (OR = 2.17, 95% CI = 1.88-2.51), psychiatric diseases (OR = 2.34, 95% CI = 2.05-2.68), eating disorders (OR = 2.28, 95% CI = 1.55-3.36) and radiotherapy (OR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.43-2.80) were good predictors of xerostomia. For the test model performance, the ROC-AUC was 0.816 and in the external validation sample, the ROC-AUC was 0.799.

CONCLUSION

The xerostomia risk prediction model had high accuracy and discriminated between high- and low-risk individuals. Clinicians could use this model to identify the classes of medications and systemic diseases associated with xerostomia.

Using Satellite-Based Spatiotemporal Resolved Air Temperature Exposure to Study the Association between Ambient Air Temperature and Birth Outcomes in Massachusetts

BACKGROUND

Studies looking at air temperature (Ta) and birth outcomes are rare.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the association between birth outcomes and daily Ta during various prenatal exposure periods in Massachusetts (USA) using both traditional Ta stations and modeled addresses.

METHODS

We evaluated birth outcomes and average daily Ta during various prenatal exposure periods in Massachusetts (USA) using both traditional Ta stations and modeled address Ta. We used linear and logistic mixed models and accelerated failure time models to estimate associations between Ta and the following outcomes among live births > 22 weeks: term birth weight (≥ 37 weeks), low birth weight (LBW; < 2,500 g at term), gestational age, and preterm delivery (PT; < 37 weeks). Models were adjusted for individual-level socioeconomic status, traffic density, particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), random intercept for census tract, and mother's health.

RESULTS

Predicted Ta during multiple time windows before birth was negatively associated with birth weight: Average birth weight was 16.7 g lower (95% CI: -29.7, -3.7) in association with an interquartile range increase (8.4 °C) in Ta during the last trimester. Ta over the entire pregnancy was positively associated with PT [odds ratio (OR) = 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.05] and LBW (OR = 1.04; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.13).

CONCLUSIONS

Ta during pregnancy was associated with lower birth weight and shorter gestational age in our study population.

Changing patterns of the temperature-mortality association by time and location in the US, and implications for climate change

The shape of the non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality varies among cities with different climatic conditions. There has been little examination of how these curves change over space and time. We evaluated the short-term effects of hot and cold temperatures on daily mortality over six 7-year periods in 211 US cities, comprising over 42 million deaths. Cluster analysis was used to group the cities according to similar temperatures and relative humidity. Temperature-mortality functions were calculated using B-splines to model the heat effect (lag 0) and the cold effect on mortality (moving average lags 1-5). The functions were then combined through meta-smoothing and subsequently analyzed by meta-regression. We identified eight clusters. At lag 0, Cluster 5 (West Coast) had a RR of 1.14 (95% CI: 1.11,1.17) for temperatures of 27 °C vs 15.6 °C, and Cluster 6 (Gulf Coast) has a RR of 1.04 (95% CI: 1.03,1.05), suggesting that people are acclimated to their respective climates. Controlling for cluster effect in the multivariate-meta regression we found that across the US, the excess mortality from a 24-h temperature of 27 °C decreased over time from 10.6% to 0.9%. We found that the overall risk due to the heat effect is significantly affected by summer temperature mean and air condition usage, which could be a potential predictor in building climate-change scenarios.

Genetics and the clinical response to warfarin and edoxaban: findings from the randomised, double-blind ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial

BACKGROUND

Warfarin is the most widely used oral anticoagulant worldwide, but serious bleeding complications are common. We tested whether genetic variants can identify patients who are at increased risk of bleeding with warfarin and, consequently, those who would derive a greater safety benefit with a direct oral anticoagulant rather than warfarin.

METHODS

ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 was a randomised, double-blind trial in which patients with atrial fibrillation were assigned to warfarin to achieve a target international normalised ratio of 2·0-3·0, or to higher-dose (60 mg) or lower-dose (30 mg) edoxaban once daily. A subgroup of patients was included in a prespecified genetic analysis and genotyped for variants in CYP2C9 and VKORC1. The results were used to create three genotype functional bins (normal, sensitive, and highly sensitive responders to warfarin). This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00781391.

FINDINGS

14,348 patients were included in the genetic analysis. Of 4833 taking warfarin, 2982 (61·7%) were classified as normal responders, 1711 (35·4%) as sensitive responders, and 140 (2·9%) as highly sensitive responders. Compared with normal responders, sensitive and highly sensitive responders spent greater proportions of time over-anticoagulated in the first 90 days of treatment (median 2·2%, IQR 0-20·2; 8·4%, 0-25·8; and 18·3%, 0-32·6; ptrend<0·0001) and had increased risks of bleeding with warfarin (sensitive responders hazard ratio 1·31, 95% CI 1·05-1·64, p=0·0179; highly sensitive responders 2·66, 1·69-4·19, p<0·0001). Genotype added independent information beyond clinical risk scoring. During the first 90 days, when compared with warfarin, treatment with edoxaban reduced bleeding more so in sensitive and highly sensitive responders than in normal responders (higher-dose edoxaban pinteraction=0·0066; lower-dose edoxaban pinteraction=0·0036). After 90 days, the reduction in bleeding risk with edoxaban versus warfarin was similarly beneficial across genotypes.

INTERPRETATION

CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genotypes identify patients who are more likely to experience early bleeding with warfarin and who derive a greater early safety benefit from edoxaban compared with warfarin.

FUNDING

Daiichi Sankyo.

Genetic risk, coronary heart disease events, and the clinical benefit of statin therapy: an analysis of primary and secondary prevention trials

BACKGROUND

Genetic variants have been associated with the risk of coronary heart disease. In this study, we tested whether or not a composite of these variants could ascertain the risk of both incident and recurrent coronary heart disease events and identify those individuals who derive greater clinical benefit from statin therapy.

METHODS

A community-based cohort study (the Malmo Diet and Cancer Study) and four randomised controlled trials of both primary prevention (JUPITER and ASCOT) and secondary prevention (CARE and PROVE IT-TIMI 22) with statin therapy, comprising a total of 48,421 individuals and 3477 events, were included in these analyses. We studied the association of a genetic risk score based on 27 genetic variants with incident or recurrent coronary heart disease, adjusting for traditional clinical risk factors. We then investigated the relative and absolute risk reductions in coronary heart disease events with statin therapy stratified by genetic risk. We combined data from the different studies using a meta-analysis.

FINDINGS

When individuals were divided into low (quintile 1), intermediate (quintiles 2-4), and high (quintile 5) genetic risk categories, a significant gradient in risk for incident or recurrent coronary heart disease was shown. Compared with the low genetic risk category, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio for coronary heart disease for the intermediate genetic risk category was 1·34 (95% CI 1·22-1·47, p<0·0001) and that for the high genetic risk category was 1·72 (1·55-1·92, p<0·0001). In terms of the benefit of statin therapy in the four randomised trials, we noted a significant gradient (p=0·0277) of increasing relative risk reductions across the low (13%), intermediate (29%), and high (48%) genetic risk categories. Similarly, we noted greater absolute risk reductions in those individuals in higher genetic risk categories (p=0·0101), resulting in a roughly threefold decrease in the number needed to treat to prevent one coronary heart disease event in the primary prevention trials. Specifically, in the primary prevention trials, the number needed to treat to prevent one such event in 10 years was 66 in people at low genetic risk, 42 in those at intermediate genetic risk, and 25 in those at high genetic risk in JUPITER, and 57, 47, and 20, respectively, in ASCOT.

INTERPRETATION

A genetic risk score identified individuals at increased risk for both incident and recurrent coronary heart disease events. People with the highest burden of genetic risk derived the largest relative and absolute clinical benefit from statin therapy.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health.

Effects of airborne fine particles (PM2.5 ) on deep vein thrombosis admissions in the northeastern United States

BACKGROUND

Literature relating air pollution exposure to deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), despite biological plausibility, is sparse. No comprehensive study examining associations between both short- and long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM)2.5 and DVT or PE has been published. Using a novel PM2.5 prediction model, we study whether long- and short-term PM2.5 exposure is associated with DVT and PE admissions among elderly across the northeastern United States.

METHODS

We estimated daily exposure of PM2.5 in each ZIP code. We investigated the long- and short-term effects of PM2.5 on DVT and PE hospital admissions. There were 453,413 DVT and 151,829 PE admissions in the study. For short-term exposure, we performed a case crossover analysis matching month and year and defined the hazard period as lag 01 (exposure of day of admission and previous day). For the long-term association, we used a Poisson regression.

RESULTS

A 10-μg m(-3) increase in short-term exposure was associated with a 0.63% increase in DVT admissions (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.03% to 1.25%) and a 6.98% (95% CI = 5.65% to 8.33%) increase in long-term exposure admissions. For PE, the associated risks were 0.38% (95% CI = -0.68% to 1.25%) and 2.67% (95% CI = 5.65% to 8.33%). These results persisted when analyses were restricted to location-periods meeting the current Environmental Protection Agency annual standard of 12 μg m(-3) .

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings showed that PM2.5 exposure was associated with DVT and PE hospital admissions and that current standards are not protective of this result.

Pathologic complete response to intralesional interleukin-2 therapy associated with improved survival in melanoma patients with in-transit disease

PURPOSE

Melanoma patients with in-transit disease have a high mortality rate despite various treatment strategies. The aim of this study was to validate the role of intralesional interleukin (IL)-2, to understand its mechanism of action, and to better understand factors that may influence its response.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected the clinicopathological data of 31 consecutive patients who presented to a tertiary care cancer center for treatment of in-transit melanoma with intralesional IL-2. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and multivariable Cox regression analysis were performed. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) was used to better understand the immune response to localized IL-2 therapy. Targeted next-generation sequencing was performed to genomically characterize the tumors.

RESULTS

Ten patients (10/31, 32 %) achieved a pathologic complete response (pCR), 17/21 (55 %) had a partial response, and 4/21 (19 %) had progressive disease on treatment. pCR to IL-2 therapy was associated with overall survival (log-rank p = 0.004) and improved progression-free survival (PFS) [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.11; 95 % CI 0.02-0.47; p = 0.003). A higher CD8+ T cell infiltrate was identified in in-transit lesions with a pCR compared with the other lesions (mean IHC score 3.78 vs. 2.61; p = 0.01). Patients with an elevated CD8+ infiltrate demonstrated an improved PFS (unadjusted HR 0.08; 95 % CI 0.01-0.52; p = 0.008).

CONCLUSIONS

Thirty-two percent of patients achieved pCR with intralesional IL-2 therapy and had a significantly improved PFS compared with the rest of the cohort, which may be explained by a systemic CD8+ T-cell response.

Acclimatization across space and time in the effects of temperature on mortality: a time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

Climate change has increased the days of unseasonal temperature. Although many studies have examined the association between temperature and mortality, few have examined the timing of exposure where whether this association varies depending on the exposure month even at the same temperature. Therefore, we investigated monthly differences in the effects of temperature on mortality in a study comprising a wide range of weather and years, and we also investigated heterogeneity among regions.

METHODS

We analyzed 38,005,616 deaths from 148 cities in the U.S. from 1973 through 2006. We fit city specific Poisson regressions to examine the effect of temperature on mortality separately for each month of the year, using penalized splines. We used cluster analysis to group cities with similar weather patterns, and combined results across cities within clusters using meta-smoothing.

RESULTS

There was substantial variation in the effects of the same temperature by month. Heat effects were larger in the spring and early summer and cold effects were larger in late fall. In addition, heat effects were larger in clusters where high temperatures were less common, and vice versa for cold effects.

CONCLUSIONS

The effects of a given temperature on mortality vary spatially and temporally based on how unusual it is for that time and location. This suggests changes in variability of temperature may be more important for health as climate changes than changes of mean temperature. More emphasis should be placed on warnings targeted to early heat/cold temperature for the season or month rather than focusing only on the extremes.

A New Hybrid Spatio-Temporal Model For Estimating Daily Multi-Year PM2.5 Concentrations Across Northeastern USA Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth Data

BACKGROUND

The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter (PM2.5) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data.

METHODS

We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data. We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM2.5 at a 1×1km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003-2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1×1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM2.5 measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site.

RESULTS

Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R2=0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R2=0.87, R2=0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99).

CONCLUSION

Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions and will be useful in reconstructing exposure histories for epidemiological studies across this region.

Short term effects of particle exposure on hospital admissions in the Mid-Atlantic states: a population estimate

Background

Many studies report significant associations between PM_2.5 (particulate matter <2.5 micrometers) and hospital admissions. These studies mostly rely on a limited number of monitors which introduces exposure error, and excludes rural and suburban populations from locations where monitors are not available, reducing generalizability and potentially creating selection bias.

Methods

Using prediction models developed by our group, daily PM2.5 exposure was estimated across the Mid-Atlantic (Washington D.C., and the states of Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New York and West Virginia). We then investigated the short-term effects of PM_2.5 exposures on emergency hospital admissions of the elderly in the Mid-Atlantic region.We performed case-crossover analysis for each admission type, matching on day of the week, month and year and defined the hazard period as lag01 (a moving average of day of admission exposure and previous day exposure).

Results

We observed associations between short-term exposure to PM_2.5 and hospitalization for all outcomes examined. For example, for every 10-µg/m³ increase in short-term PM _2.5 there was a 2.2% increase in respiratory diseases admissions (95% CI = 1.9 to 2.6), and a 0.78% increase in cardiovascular disease (CVD) admission rate (95% CI = 0.5 to 1.0). We found differences in risk for CVD admissions between people living in rural and urban areas. For every10-µg/m³ increase in PM _2.5 exposure in the ‘rural’ group there was a 1.0% increase (95% CI = 0.6 to 1.5), while for the ‘urban’ group the increase was 0.7% (95% CI = 0.4 to 1.0).

Conclusions

Our findings showed that PM_2.5 exposure was associated with hospital admissions for all respiratory, cardio vascular disease, stroke, ischemic heart disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease admissions. In addition, we demonstrate that our AOD (Aerosol Optical Depth) based exposure models can be successfully applied to epidemiological studies investigating the health effects of short-term exposures to PM_2.5.

Microvesicle-associated microRNA expression is altered upon particulate matter exposure in healthy workers and in A549 cells

Cardiovascular disease risk has been consistently linked with particulate matter (PM) exposure. Cell-derived microvesicles (MVs) are released into plasma and transfer microRNAs (miRNAs) between tissues. MVs can be produced by the respiratory system in response to proinflammatory triggers, enter the circulatory system and remotely modify gene expression in cardiovascular tissues. However, whether PM affects MV signaling has never been investigated. In this study, we evaluated expression of microRNAs contained within plasma MVs upon PM exposure both in vivo and in vitro. In the in vivo study, we isolated plasma MVs from healthy steel plant workers before and after workplace PM exposure. We measured the expression of 88 MV-associated miRNAs by real-time polymerase chain reaction. To assess a possible source of the MV miRNAs identified in vivo, we measured their miRNA expression in PM-treated A549 pulmonary cell lines in vitro. MiRNA profiling of plasma MVs showed 5.62- and 13.95-fold increased expression of miR-128 and miR-302c, respectively, after 3 days of workplace PM exposure (P < 0.001). According to Ingenuity Pathway Analysis, miR-128 is part of coronary artery disease pathways, and miR-302c is part of coronary artery disease, cardiac hypertrophy and heart failure pathways. In vitro experiments confirmed a dose-dependent expression of miR-128 in MVs released from A549 cells after 6 h of PM treatment (P = 0.030). MiR-302c was expressed neither from A549 cells nor in reference lung RNA. These results suggest novel PM-activated molecular mechanisms that may mediate the effects of air pollution and could lead to the identification of new diagnostic and therapeutic interventions.

Effects of airborne pollutants on mitochondrial DNA methylation

Background

Mitochondria have small mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) molecules independent from the nuclear DNA, a separate epigenetic machinery that generates mtDNA methylation, and are primary sources of oxidative-stress generation in response to exogenous environments. However, no study has yet investigated whether mitochondrial DNA methylation is sensitive to pro-oxidant environmental exposures.

Methods

We sampled 40 male participants (20 high-, 20 low-exposure) from each of three studies on airborne pollutants, including investigations of steel workers exposed to metal-rich particulate matter (measured as PM₁) in Brescia, Italy (Study 1); gas-station attendants exposed to air benzene in Milan, Italy (Study 2); and truck drivers exposed to traffic-derived Elemental Carbon (EC) in Beijing, China (Study 3). We have measured DNA methylation from buffy coats of the participants. We measured methylation by bisulfite-Pyrosequencing in three mtDNA regions, i.e., the transfer RNA phenylalanine (MT-TF), 12S ribosomal RNA (MT-RNR1) gene and “D-loop” control region. All analyses were adjusted for age and smoking.

Results

In Study 1, participants with high metal-rich PM₁ exposure showed higher MT-TF and MT-RNR1 methylation than low-exposed controls (difference = 1.41, P = 0.002); MT-TF and MT-RNR1 methylation was significantly associated with PM₁ exposure (beta = 1.35, P = 0.025); and MT-RNR1 methylation was positively correlated with mtDNA copy number (r = 0.36; P = 0.02). D-loop methylation was not associated with PM₁ exposure. We found no effects on mtDNA methylation from air benzene (Study 2) and traffic-derived EC exposure (Study 3).

Conclusions

Mitochondrial MT-TF and MT-RNR1 DNA methylation was associated with metal-rich PM₁ exposure and mtDNA copy number. Our results suggest that locus-specific mtDNA methylation is correlated to selected exposures and mtDNA damage. Larger studies are needed to validate our observations.

Blood hypomethylation of inflammatory genes mediates the effects of metal-rich airborne pollutants on blood coagulation

OBJECTIVES

Recent investigations have associated airborne particulate matter (PM) with increased coagulation and thrombosis, but underlying biological mechanisms are still incompletely characterised. DNA methylation is an environmentally sensitive mechanism of gene regulation that could potentially contribute to PM-induced hypercoagulability. We aimed to test whether altered methylation mediates environmental effects on coagulation.

METHODS

We investigated 63 steel workers exposed to a wide range of PM levels, as a work-related condition with well-characterised prothrombotic exposure. We measured personal PM10 (PM≤10 µm in aerodynamic diameter), PM1 (≤1 µm) and air metal components. We determined leukocyte DNA methylation of NOS3 (nitric-oxide-synthase-3) and EDN1 (endothelin-1) through bisulfite-pyrosequencing and we measured ETP as a global coagulation-activation test after standardised triggers.

RESULTS

ETP increased in association with PM10 (β=20.0, 95% CI 3.0 to 37.0), PM1 (β=80.8 95% CI 14.9 to 146.7) and zinc (β=51.3, 95% CI 0.01 to 111.1) exposures. NOS3 methylation was negatively associated with PM10 (β=-0.2, 95% CI -0.4 to -0.03), PM1 (β=-0.8, 95% CI -1.4 to -0.1), zinc (β=-0.9, 95% CI -1.4 to -0.3) and iron (β=-0.7, 95% CI -1.4 to -0.01) exposures. Zinc exposure was negatively associated with EDN1 (β=-0.3, 95% CI -0.8 to -0.1) methylation. Lower NOS3 (β=-42.3; p<0.001) and EDN1 (β=-14.5; p=0.05) were associated with higher ETP. Statistical mediation analysis formally confirmed NOS3 and EDN1 hypomethylation as intermediate mechanisms for PM-related coagulation effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed for the first time, that gene hypomethylation contributes to environmentally induced hypercoagulability.

Integrative Analysis of miRNA and inflammatory gene expression after acute particulate matter exposure

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are environmentally sensitive inhibitors of gene expression that may mediate the effects of metal-rich particulate matter (PM) and toxic metals on human individuals. Previous environmental miRNA studies have investigated a limited number of candidate miRNAs and have not yet evaluated the functional effects on gene expression. In this study, we wanted to identify PM-sensitive miRNAs using microarray profiling on matched baseline and postexposure RNA from foundry workers with well-characterized exposure to metal-rich PM and to characterize miRNA relations with expression of candidate inflammatory genes. We applied microarray analysis of 847 human miRNAs and real-time PCR analysis of 18 candidate inflammatory genes on matched blood samples collected from foundry workers at baseline and after 3 days of work (postexposure). We identified differentially expressed miRNAs (fold change [FC] > 2 and p < 0.05) and correlated their expression with the inflammatory associated genes. We performed in silico network analysis in MetaCore v6.9 to characterize the biological pathways connecting miRNA-mRNA pairs. Microarray analysis identified four miRNAs that were differentially expressed in postexposure compared with baseline samples, including miR-421 (FC = 2.81, p < 0.001), miR-146a (FC = 2.62, p = 0.007), miR-29a (FC = 2.91, p < 0.001), and let-7g (FC = 2.73, p = 0.019). Using false discovery date adjustment for multiple comparisons, we found 11 miRNA-mRNA correlated pairs involving the 4 differentially expressed miRNAs and candidate inflammatory genes. In silico network analysis with MetaCore database identified biological interactions for all the 11 miRNA-mRNA pairs, which ranged from direct mRNA targeting to complex interactions with multiple intermediates. Acute PM exposure may affect gene regulation through PM-responsive miRNAs that directly or indirectly control inflammatory gene expression.

Incorporating local land use regression and satellite aerosol optical depth in a hybrid model of spatiotemporal PM2.5 exposures in the Mid-Atlantic states

Satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements have the potential to provide spatiotemporally resolved predictions of both long and short-term exposures, but previous studies have generally shown moderate predictive power and lacked detailed high spatio- temporal resolution predictions across large domains. We aimed at extending our previous work by validating our model in another region with different geographical and metrological characteristics, and incorporating fine scale land use regression and nonrandom missingness to better predict PM(2.5) concentrations for days with or without satellite AOD measures. We start by calibrating AOD data for 2000-2008 across the Mid-Atlantic. We used mixed models regressing PM(2.5) measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We used inverse probability weighting to account for nonrandom missingness of AOD, nested regions within days to capture spatial variation in the daily calibration, and introduced a penalization method that reduces the dimensionality of the large number of spatial and temporal predictors without selecting different predictors in different locations. We then take advantage of the association between grid-cell specific AOD values and PM(2.5) monitoring data, together with associations between AOD values in neighboring grid cells to develop grid cell predictions when AOD is missing. Finally to get local predictions (at the resolution of 50 m), we regressed the residuals from the predictions for each monitor from these previous steps against the local land use variables specific for each monitor. "Out-of-sample" 10-fold cross-validation was used to quantify the accuracy of our predictions at each step. For all days without AOD values, model performance was excellent (mean "out-of-sample" R(2) = 0.81, year-to-year variation 0.79-0.84). Upon removal of outliers in the PM(2.5) monitoring data, the results of the cross validation procedure was even better (overall mean "out of sample"R(2) of 0.85). Further, cross validation results revealed no bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of observed vs predicted = 0.97-1.01). Our model allows one to reliably assess short-term and long-term human exposures in order to investigate both the acute and effects of ambient particles, respectively.

Temporal stability of epigenetic markers: sequence characteristics and predictors of short-term DNA methylation variations

Background

DNA methylation is an epigenetic mechanism that has been increasingly investigated in observational human studies, particularly on blood leukocyte DNA. Characterizing the degree and determinants of DNA methylation stability can provide critical information for the design and conduction of human epigenetic studies.

Methods

We measured DNA methylation in 12 gene-promoter regions (APC, p16, p53, RASSF1A, CDH13, eNOS, ET-1, IFNγ, IL-6, TNFα, iNOS, and hTERT) and 2 of non-long terminal repeat elements, i.e., L1 and Alu in blood samples obtained from 63 healthy individuals at baseline (Day 1) and after three days (Day 4). DNA methylation was measured by bisulfite-PCR-Pyrosequencing. We calculated intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) to measure the within-individual stability of DNA methylation between Day 1 and 4, subtracted of pyrosequencing error and adjusted for multiple covariates.

Results

Methylation markers showed different temporal behaviors ranging from high (IL-6, ICC = 0.89) to low stability (APC, ICC = 0.08) between Day 1 and 4. Multiple sequence and marker characteristics were associated with the degree of variation. Density of CpG dinucleotides nearby the sequence analyzed (measured as CpG(o/e) or G+C content within ±200bp) was positively associated with DNA methylation stability. The 3′ proximity to repeat elements and range of DNA methylation on Day 1 were also positively associated with methylation stability. An inverted U-shaped correlation was observed between mean DNA methylation on Day 1 and stability.

Conclusions

The degree of short-term DNA methylation stability is marker-dependent and associated with sequence characteristics and methylation levels.

Ambient PM exposure and DNA methylation in tumor suppressor genes: a cross-sectional study

Exposure to ambient air particles matter (PM) has been associated with increased risk of lung cancer. Aberrant tumor suppressor gene promoter methylation has emerged as a promising biomarker for cancers, including lung cancer. Whether exposure to PM is associated with peripheral blood leukocyte (PBL) DNA methylation in tumor suppressor genes has not been evaluated. In 63 male healthy steel workers with well-characterized exposure to metal-rich particles nearby Brescia, Italy, we evaluated whether exposure to PM and metal components was associated with PBL DNA methylation in 4 tumor suppressor genes (i.e., APC, p16, p53 and RASSF1A). Blood samples were obtained on the 1^st (baseline) and 4^th day (post-exposure) of the same work week and DNA methylation was measured using pyrosequencing. A linear mixed model was used to examine the correlations of the exposure with promoter methylation levels. Mean promoter DNA methylation levels of APC or p16 were significantly higher in post-exposure samples compared to that in baseline samples (p-values = 0.005 for APC, and p-value = 0.006 for p16). By contrast, the mean levels of p53 or RASSF1A promoter methylation was decreased in post-exposure samples compared to that in baseline samples (p-value = 0.015 for p53; and p-value < 0.001 for RASSF1A). In post-exposure samples, APC methylation was positively associated with PM₁₀ (β = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.13-0.40), and PM₁ (β = 0.23, 95% CI: 0.09-0.38). In summary, ambient PM exposure was associated with PBL DNA methylation levels of tumor suppressor genes of APC, p16, p53 and RASSF1A, suggesting that such methylation alterations may reflect processes related to PM-induced lung carcinogenesis.

Inhalable metal-rich air particles and histone H3K4 dimethylation and H3K9 acetylation in a cross-sectional study of steel workers

BACKGROUND

Epidemiology investigations have linked exposure to ambient and occupational air particulate matter (PM) with increased risk of lung cancer. PM contains carcinogenic and toxic metals, including arsenic and nickel, which have been shown in in vitro studies to induce histone modifications that activate gene expression by inducing open-chromatin states. Whether inhalation of metal components of PM induces histone modifications in human subjects is undetermined.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated whether the metal components of PM determined activating histone modifications in 63 steel workers with well-characterized exposure to metal-rich PM.

METHODS

We determined histone 3 lysine 4 dimethylation (H3K4me2) and histone 3 lysine 9 acetylation (H3K9ac) on histones from blood leukocytes. Exposure to inhalable metal components (aluminum, manganese, nickel, zinc, arsenic, lead, iron) and to total PM was estimated for each study subject.

RESULTS

Both H3K4me2 and H3K9ac increased in association with years of employment in the plant (p-trend = 0.04 and 0.006, respectively). H3K4me2 increased in association with air levels of nickel [β = 0.16; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.03-0.3], arsenic (β = 0.16; 95% CI, 0.02-0.3), and iron (β = 0.14; 95% CI, 0.01-0.26). H3K9ac showed nonsignificant positive associations with air levels of nickel (β = 0.24; 95% CI, -0.02 to 0.51), arsenic (β = 0.21; 95% CI, -0.06 to 0.48), and iron (β = 0.22; 95% CI, -0.03 to 0.47). Cumulative exposures to nickel and arsenic, defined as the product of years of employment by metal air levels, were positively correlated with both H3K4me2 (nickel: β = 0.16; 95% CI, 0.01-0.3; arsenic: β = 0.16; 95% CI, 0.03-0.29) and H3K9ac (nickel: β = 0.27; 95% CI, 0.01-0.54; arsenic: β = 0.28; 95% CI, 0.04-0.51).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate histone modifications as a novel epigenetic mechanism induced in human subjects by long-term exposure to inhalable nickel and arsenic.