The Effect of Age on Dengue Presentation and the Diagnostic Accuracy of the 2015 Pan American Health Organization Case Criteria in a Puerto Rican Cohort

Background

We evaluated dengue presentation by age, the performance of the 2015 Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) case criteria in identifying dengue cases, and variables to improve specificity.

Methods

Patients with fever ≤7 days (N = 10 408) were recruited from 2 emergency departments from May 2012 through December 2015. Serum samples were tested for dengue, chikungunya, and nasopharyngeal swabs for respiratory viruses. Smoothing splines assessed differences in the frequencies of signs/symptoms by age. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regressions identified the variables that best predicted dengue.

Results

Among 985 dengue cases, children aged <5 years were least likely to have leukopenia, but most likely to have rash and petechiae. Adults had the highest odds of aches/pains and headaches/retro-orbital pain. The 2015 PAHO criteria had sensitivity of 93% and specificity of 25%. Specificity could be improved by requiring at least 2 of the following criteria: vomiting/nausea, petechiae, rash, or leukopenia (specificity 68%, sensitivity 71%) or by using 2015 PAHO criteria plus either (1) aspartate aminotransferase >50 IU/L or platelet count <100 000 platelets/μL (specificity 81%, sensitivity 56%) or (2) itchy skin or absence of rhinorrhea or cough (specificity 51%, sensitivity 82%).

Conclusions

The 2015 PAHO dengue case criteria had excellent sensitivity but poor specificity. This can be improved by adding signs/symptoms associated with dengue diagnosis.

Reduced spread of influenza and other respiratory viral infections during the COVID-19 pandemic in southern Puerto Rico

INTRODUCTION

Impacts of COVID-19 mitigation measures on seasonal respiratory viruses is unknown in sub-tropical climates.

METHODS

We compared weekly testing and test-positivity of respiratory infections in the 2019-2020 respiratory season to the 2012-2018 seasons in southern Puerto Rico using Wilcoxon signed rank tests.

RESULTS

Compared to the average for the 2012-2018 seasons, test-positivity was significantly lower for Influenza A (p<0.001) & B (p<0.001), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) (p<0.01), respiratory adenovirus (AdV) (p<0.05), and other respiratory viruses (p<0.001) following March 2020 COVID-19 stay at home orders.

CONCLUSIONS

Mitigation measures and behavioral social distancing choices may have reduced respiratory viral spread in southern Puerto Rico.

Recent influenza activity in tropical Puerto Rico has become synchronized with mainland US

BACKGROUND

We used data from the Sentinel Enhanced Dengue Surveillance System (SEDSS) to describe influenza trends in southern Puerto Rico during 2012-2018 and compare them to trends in the United States.

METHODS

Patients with fever onset ≤ 7 days presenting were enrolled. Nasal/oropharyngeal swabs were tested for influenza A and B viruses by PCR. Virologic data were obtained from the US World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Laboratories System and the National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System (NREVSS). We compared influenza A and B infections identified from SEDSS and WHO/NREVSS laboratories reported by US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) region using time series decomposition methods, and analysed coherence of climate and influenza trends by region.

RESULTS

Among 23,124 participants, 9% were positive for influenza A and 5% for influenza B. Influenza A and B viruses were identified year-round, with no clear seasonal patterns from 2012 to 2015 and peaks in December-January in 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 seasons. Influenza seasons in HHS regions were relatively synchronized in recent years with the seasons in Puerto Rico. We observed high coherence between absolute humidity and influenza A and B virus in HHS regions. In Puerto Rico, coherence was much lower in the early years but increased to similar levels to HHS regions by 2017-2018.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza seasons in Puerto Rico have recently become synchronized with seasons in US HHS regions. Current US recommendations are for everyone 6 months and older to receive influenza vaccination by the end of October seem appropriate for Puerto Rico.