A statistical characterization of consistent patterns of human immunodeficiency virus evolution within infected patients

The phylogenetic approach for viral infectious disease evolution and epidemiology: An updating review

In the last decade, the phylogenetic approach is recurrent in molecular evolutionary analysis. On 12 May, 2019, about 2 296 213 papers are found, but typing "phylogeny" or "epidemiology AND phylogeny" only 199 804 and 20 133 are retrieved, respectively. Molecular epidemiology in infectious diseases is widely used to define the source of infection as so as the ancestral relationships of individuals sampled from a population. Coalescent theory and phylogeographic analysis have had scientific application in several, recent pandemic events, and nosocomial outbreaks. Hepatitis viruses and immunodeficiency virus (human immunodeficiency virus) have been largely studied. Phylogenetic analysis has been recently applied on Polyomaviruses so as in the more recent outbreaks due to different arboviruses type as Zika and chikungunya viruses discovering the source of infection and the geographic spread. Data on sequences isolated by the microorganism are essential to apply the phylogenetic tools and research in the field of infectious disease phylodinamics is growing up. There is the need to apply molecular phylogenetic and evolutionary methods in areas out of infectious diseases, as translational genomics and personalized medicine. Lastly, the application of these tools in vaccine strategy so as in antibiotic and antiviral researchers are encouraged.

Insights into the Impact of CD8+ Immune Modulation on Human Immunodeficiency Virus Evolutionary Dynamics in Distinct Anatomical Compartments by Using Simian Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Macaque Models of AIDS Progression

A thorough understanding of the role of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) intrahost evolution in AIDS pathogenesis has been limited by the need for longitudinally sampled viral sequences from the vast target space within the host, which are often difficult to obtain from human subjects. CD8⁺ lymphocyte-depleted macaques infected with simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) provide an increasingly utilized model of pathogenesis due to clinical manifestations similar to those for HIV-1 infection and AIDS progression, as well as a characteristic rapid disease onset. Comparison of this model with SIV-infected non-CD8⁺ lymphocyte-depleted macaques also provides a unique opportunity to investigate the role of CD8⁺ cells in viral evolution and population dynamics throughout the duration of infection. Using several different phylogenetic methods, we analyzed viral gp120 sequences obtained from extensive longitudinal sampling of multiple tissues and enriched leukocyte populations from SIVmac251-infected macaques with or without CD8⁺ lymphocyte depletion. SIV evolutionary and selection patterns in non-CD8⁺ lymphocyte-depleted animals were characterized by sequential population turnover and continual viral adaptation, a scenario readily comparable to intrahost evolutionary patterns during human HIV infection in the absence of antiretroviral therapy. Alternatively, animals that were depleted of CD8⁺ lymphocytes exhibited greater variation in population dynamics among tissues and cell populations over the course of infection. Our findings highlight the major role for CD8⁺ lymphocytes in prolonging disease progression through continual control of SIV subpopulations from various anatomical compartments and the potential for greater independent viral evolutionary behavior among these compartments in response to immune modulation.IMPORTANCE Although developments in combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) strategies have successfully prolonged the time to AIDS onset in HIV-1-infected individuals, a functional cure has yet to be found. Improvement of drug interventions for a virus that is able to infect a wide range of tissues and cell types requires a thorough understanding of viral adaptation and infection dynamics within this target milieu. Although it is difficult to accomplish in the human host, longitudinal sampling of multiple anatomical locations is readily accessible in the SIV-infected macaque models of neuro-AIDS. The significance of our research is in identifying the impact of immune modulation, through differing immune selective pressures, on viral evolutionary behavior in a multitude of anatomical compartments. The results provide evidence encouraging the development of a more sophisticated model that considers a network of individual viral subpopulations within the host, with differing infection and transmission dynamics, which is necessary for more effective treatment strategies.

Patterns and rates of viral evolution in HIV-1 subtype B infected females and males

Biological sex differences affect the course of HIV infection, with untreated women having lower viral loads compared to their male counterparts but, for a given viral load, women have a higher rate of progression to AIDS. However, the vast majority of data on viral evolution, a process that is clearly impacted by host immunity and could be impacted by sex differences, has been derived from men. We conducted an intensive analysis of HIV-1 gag and env-gp120 evolution taken over the first 6–11 years of infection from 8 Women’s Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) participants who had not received combination antiretroviral therapy (ART). This was compared to similar data previously collected from men, with both groups infected with HIV-1 subtype B. Early virus populations in men and women were generally homogenous with no differences in diversity between sexes. No differences in ensuing nucleotide substitution rates were found between the female and male cohorts studied herein. As previously reported for men, time to peak diversity in env-gp120 in women was positively associated with time to CD4+ cell count below 200 (P = 0.017), and the number of predicted N-linked glycosylation sites generally increased over time, followed by a plateau or decline, with the majority of changes localized to the V1-V2 region. These findings strongly suggest that the sex differences in HIV-1 disease progression attributed to immune system composition and sensitivities are not revealed by, nor do they impact, global patterns of viral evolution, the latter of which proceeds similarly in women and men.

Mutation and recombination in pathogen evolution: Relevance, methods and controversies

Mutation and recombination drive the evolution of most pathogens by generating the genetic variants upon which selection operates. Those variants can, for example, confer resistance to host immune systems and drug therapies or lead to epidemic outbreaks. Given their importance, diverse evolutionary studies have investigated the abundance and consequences of mutation and recombination in pathogen populations. However, some controversies persist regarding the contribution of each evolutionary force to the development of particular phenotypic observations (e.g., drug resistance). In this study, we revise the importance of mutation and recombination in the evolution of pathogens at both intra-host and inter-host levels. We also describe state-of-the-art analytical methodologies to detect and quantify these two evolutionary forces, including biases that are often ignored in evolutionary studies. Finally, we present some of our former studies involving pathogenic taxa where mutation and recombination played crucial roles in the recovery of pathogenic fitness, the generation of interspecific genetic diversity, or the design of centralized vaccines. This review also illustrates several common controversies and pitfalls in the analysis and in the evaluation and interpretation of mutation and recombination outcomes.

Accurate predictions of population-level changes in sequence and structural properties of HIV-1 Env using a volatility-controlled diffusion model

The envelope glycoproteins (Envs) of HIV-1 continuously evolve in the host by random mutations and recombination events. The resulting diversity of Env variants circulating in the population and their continuing diversification process limit the efficacy of AIDS vaccines. We examined the historic changes in Env sequence and structural features (measured by integrity of epitopes on the Env trimer) in a geographically defined population in the United States. As expected, many Env features were relatively conserved during the 1980s. From this state, some features diversified whereas others remained conserved across the years. We sought to identify “clues” to predict the observed historic diversification patterns. Comparison of viruses that cocirculate in patients at any given time revealed that each feature of Env (sequence or structural) exists at a defined level of variance. The in-host variance of each feature is highly conserved among individuals but can vary between different HIV-1 clades. We designate this property “volatility” and apply it to model evolution of features as a linear diffusion process that progresses with increasing genetic distance. Volatilities of different features are highly correlated with their divergence in longitudinally monitored patients. Volatilities of features also correlate highly with their population-level diversification. Using volatility indices measured from a small number of patient samples, we accurately predict the population diversity that developed for each feature over the course of 30 years. Amino acid variants that evolved at key antigenic sites are also predicted well. Therefore, small “fluctuations” in feature values measured in isolated patient samples accurately describe their potential for population-level diversification. These tools will likely contribute to the design of population-targeted AIDS vaccines by effectively capturing the diversity of currently circulating strains and addressing properties of variants expected to appear in the future.

HIV-1 is the causative agent of the global AIDS pandemic. The envelope glycoproteins (Envs) of HIV-1 constitute a primary target for antibody-based vaccines. However, the diversity of Envs in the population limits the potential efficacy of this approach. Accurate estimates of the range of variants that currently infect patients and those expected to appear in the future will likely contribute to the design of population-targeted immunogens. We found that different properties (features) of Env have different propensities for small “fluctuations” in their values among viruses that infect patients at any given time point. This propensity of each feature for in-host variance, which we designate “volatility”, is conserved among patients. We apply this parameter to model the evolution of features (in patients and population) as a diffusion process driven by their “diffusion coefficients” (volatilities). Using volatilities measured from a few patient samples from the 1980s, we accurately predict properties of viruses that evolved in the population over the course of 30 years. The diffusion-based model described here efficiently captures evolution of phenotypes in biological systems controlled by a dominant random component.

Identifying predictors of time-inhomogeneous viral evolutionary processes

Various factors determine the rate at which mutations are generated and fixed in viral genomes. Viral evolutionary rates may vary over the course of a single persistent infection and can reflect changes in replication rates and selective dynamics. Dedicated statistical inference approaches are required to understand how the complex interplay of these processes shapes the genetic diversity and divergence in viral populations. Although evolutionary models accommodating a high degree of complexity can now be formalized, adequately informing these models by potentially sparse data, and assessing the association of the resulting estimates with external predictors, remains a major challenge. In this article, we present a novel Bayesian evolutionary inference method, which integrates multiple potential predictors and tests their association with variation in the absolute rates of synonymous and non-synonymous substitutions along the evolutionary history. We consider clinical and virological measures as predictors, but also changes in population size trajectories that are simultaneously inferred using coalescent modelling. We demonstrate the potential of our method in an application to within-host HIV-1 sequence data sampled throughout the infection of multiple patients. While analyses of individual patient populations lack statistical power, we detect significant evidence for an abrupt drop in non-synonymous rates in late stage infection and a more gradual increase in synonymous rates over the course of infection in a joint analysis across all patients. The former is predicted by the immune relaxation hypothesis while the latter may be in line with increasing replicative fitness during the asymptomatic stage.

Effects of neutralizing antibodies on escape from CD8+ T-cell responses in HIV-1 infection

Despite substantial advances in our knowledge of immune responses against HIV-1 and of its evolution within the host, it remains unclear why control of the virus eventually breaks down. Here, we present a new theoretical framework for the infection dynamics of HIV-1 that combines antibody and CD8⁺ T-cell responses, notably taking into account their different lifespans. Several apparent paradoxes in HIV pathogenesis and genetics of host susceptibility can be reconciled within this framework by assigning a crucial role to antibody responses in the control of viraemia. We argue that, although escape from or progressive loss of quality of CD8⁺ T-cell responses can accelerate disease progression, the underlying cause of the breakdown of virus control is the loss of antibody induction due to depletion of CD4⁺ T cells. Furthermore, strong antibody responses can prevent CD8⁺ T-cell escape from occurring for an extended period, even in the presence of highly efficacious CD8⁺ T-cell responses.

Recombination elevates the effective evolutionary rate and facilitates the establishment of HIV-1 infection in infants after mother-to-child transmission

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have demonstrated that single HIV-1 genotypes are commonly transmitted from mother to child, but such analyses primarily used single samples from mother and child. It is possible that in a single sample, obtained early after infection, only the most replication competent virus is detected even when other forms may have been transmitted. Such forms may have advantages later in infection, and may thus be detected in follow-up samples. Because HIV-1 frequently recombines, phylogenetic analyses that ignore recombination may miss transmission of multiple forms if they recombine after transmission. Moreover, recombination may facilitate adaptation, thus providing an advantage in establishing infection. The effect of recombination on viral evolution in HIV-1 infected children has not been well defined.

RESULTS

We analyzed full-length env sequences after single genome amplification from the plasma of four subtype B HIV-1 infected women (11-67 env clones from 1 time point within a month prior to delivery) and their non-breastfed, intrapartum-infected children (3-6 longitudinal time points per child starting at the time of HIV-1 diagnosis). To address the potential beneficial or detrimental effects of recombination, we used a recently developed hierarchical recombination detection method based on the pairwise homoplasy index (PHI)-test. Recombination was observed in 9-67% of the maternal sequences and in 25-60% of the child sequences. In the child, recombination only occurred between variants that had evolved after transmission; taking recombination into account, we identified transmission of only 1 or 2 phylogenetic lineages from mother to child. Effective HIV-1 evolutionary rates of HIV-1 were initially high in the child and slowed over time (after 1000 days). Recombination was associated with elevated evolutionary rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results confirm that 1-2 variants are typically transmitted from mothers to their newborns. They also demonstrate that early abundant recombination elevates the effective evolutionary rate, suggesting that recombination increases the rate of adaptation in HIV-1 evolution.

Pattern of the evolution of HIV-1 enν gene in Côte d׳Ivoire

Cête d׳Ivoire continues to have the highest HIV-1 prevalence rate in West Africa, although the infection number is in constant decline. The external envelope protein of the viruses is a likely site of selection, and responsible for receptor binding and entry into host cells, and therefore constitutes an ideal region with which to investigate the evolutionary processes acting on HIV-1. In this study, we analyse 189 envelope glycoprotein V3 loop region sequences of viruse isolates from 1995 to 2009, from HIV-1 untreated patients living in Cête d׳Ivoire, to decipher the temporal relationship between disease diversity, divergence and selection. Our analyses show that the nonsynonymous and synonymous ratio (dN/dS) was lower than 1 for viral populations analysed within 15 years, which showed the sequences did not undergo adequate immune pressure. The phylogenetic tree of the sequences analysed demonstrated distinctly long internal branches and short external branches, suggesting that only a small number of viruses infected the new host cell at each transmission. In addition to identifying sites under purifying selection, we also identified neutral sites that can cause false positive inference of selection. These sites presented form a resource for future studies of selection pressures acting on HIV-1 enν gene in Cête d׳Ivoire and other West African countries.

RNA replication errors and the evolution of virus pathogenicity and virulence

RNA viruses of plants and animals have polymerases that are error-prone and produce complex populations of related, but non-identical, genomes called quasispecies. While there are vast variations in mutation rates among these viruses, selection has optimized the exact error rate of each species to provide maximum speed of replication and amount of variation without losing the ability to replicate because of excessive mutation. High mutation rates result in the selection of populations increasingly robust, which means they are increasingly resistant to show phenotypic changes after mutation. It is possible to manipulate the mutation rate, either by the use of mutagens or by selection (or genetic manipulation) of fidelity mutants. These polymerases usually, but not always, perform as well as wild type (wt) during cell infection, but show major phenotypic changes during in vivo infection. Both high and low fidelity variants are attenuated when the wt virus is virulent in the host. Alternatively when wt infection is non-apparent, the variants show major restrictions to spread in the infected host. Manipulation of mutation rates may become a new strategy to develop attenuated vaccines for humans and animals.

Analysis of dinucleotide signatures in HIV-1 subtype B genomes

Dinucleotide usage is known to vary in the genomes of organisms. The dinucleotide usage profiles or genome signatures are similar for sequence samples taken from the same genome, but are different for taxonomically distant species. This concept of genome signatures has been used to study several organisms including viruses, to elucidate the signatures of evolutionary processes at the genome level. Genome signatures assume greater importance in the case of host-pathogen interactions, where molecular interactions between the two species take place continuously, and can influence their genomic composition. In this study, analyses of whole genome sequences of the HIV-1 subtype B, a retrovirus that caused global pandemic of AIDS, have been carried out to analyse the variation in genome signatures of the virus from 1983 to 2007. We show statistically significant temporal variations in some dinucleotide patterns highlighting the selective evolution of the dinucleotide profiles of HIV-1 subtype B, possibly a consequence of host specific selection.

Inferring heterogeneous evolutionary processes through time: from sequence substitution to phylogeography

Molecular phylogenetic and phylogeographic reconstructions generally assume time-homogeneous substitution processes. Motivated by computational convenience, this assumption sacrifices biological realism and offers little opportunity to uncover the temporal dynamics in evolutionary histories. Here, we propose an evolutionary approach that explicitly relaxes the time-homogeneity assumption by allowing the specification of different infinitesimal substitution rate matrices across different time intervals, called epochs, along the evolutionary history. We focus on an epoch model implementation in a Bayesian inference framework that offers great modeling flexibility in drawing inference about any discrete data type characterized as a continuous-time Markov chain, including phylogeographic traits. To alleviate the computational burden that the additional temporal heterogeneity imposes, we adopt a massively parallel approach that achieves both fine- and coarse-grain parallelization of the computations across branches that accommodate epoch transitions, making extensive use of graphics processing units. Through synthetic examples, we assess model performance in recovering evolutionary parameters from data generated according to different evolutionary scenarios that comprise different numbers of epochs for both nucleotide and codon substitution processes. We illustrate the usefulness of our inference framework in two different applications to empirical data sets: the selection dynamics on within-host HIV populations throughout infection and the seasonality of global influenza circulation. In both cases, our epoch model captures key features of temporal heterogeneity that remained difficult to test using ad hoc procedures. [Bayesian inference; BEAGLE; BEAST; Epoch Model; phylogeography; Phylogenetics.]

Viral substitution rate variation can arise from the interplay between within-host and epidemiological dynamics

The evolutionary rates of RNA viruses can differ from one another by several orders of magnitude. Much of this variation has been explained by differences in viral mutation rates and selective environments. However, substitution rates also vary considerably across viral populations belonging to the same species. In particular, viral lineages from epidemic regions tend to have higher substitution rates than those from endemic regions, and lineages from populations with higher contact rates tend to have higher substitution rates than those from populations with lower contact rates. We address the mechanism behind these patterns by using a nested modeling approach, whereby we integrate within-host viral replication dynamics with a population-level epidemiological model. Through numerical simulations and analytical approximations, we show that variation in viral substitution rates over the course of an infection, coupled with differences in age of infection of transmitting hosts under different epidemiological scenarios, can explain these evolutionary patterns. We further derive analytical estimates of expected substitution rate differences under epidemic versus endemic epidemiological conditions. By comparing these estimates to empirical data for four viral species, we show that these factors are sufficient to explain observed variation in substitution rates in three of four cases. This work shows that even in neutrally evolving viral populations, epidemiological dynamics can alter substitution rates via the interplay between within-host replication dynamics and population-level disease dynamics.

The intra-host evolutionary and population dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus type 1: a phylogenetic perspective

The intra-host evolutionary and population dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), the cause of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, have been the focus of one of the most extensive study efforts in the field of molecular evolution over the past three decades. As HIV-1 is among the fastest mutating organisms known, viral sequence data sampled over time from infected patients can provide, through phylogenetic analysis, significant insights about the tempo and mode of evolutionary processes shaped by complex interaction with the host milieu. Five main aspects are discussed: the patterns of HIV-1 intra-host diversity and divergence over time in relation to different phases of disease progression; the impact of selection on the temporal structure of HIV-1 intra-host genealogies inferred from longitudinally sampled viral sequences; HIV-1 intra-host sub-population structure; the potential relationship between viral evolutionary rate and disease progression and the central evolutionary role played by recombination occurring in super-infected cells.

Human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) continues to evolve in presence of broadly neutralizing antibodies more than ten years after infection

Background

The evolution of HIV-1 and its immune escape to autologous neutralizing antibodies (Nabs) during the acute/early phases of infection have been analyzed in depth in many studies. In contrast, little is known about neither the long-term evolution of the virus in patients who developed broadly Nabs (bNabs) or the mechanism of escape in presence of these bNabs.

Results

We have studied the viral population infecting a long term non progressor HIV-1 infected patient who had developed broadly neutralizing antibodies toward all tier 2/3 viruses (6 clades) tested, 9 years after infection, and was then followed up over 7 years. The autologous neutralization titers of the sequential sera toward env variants representative of the viral population significantly increased during the follow-up period. The most resistant pseudotyped virus was identified at the last visit suggesting that it represented a late emerging escape variant. We identified 5 amino acids substitutions that appeared associated with escape to broadly neutralizing antibodies. They were V319I/S, R/K355T, R/W429G, Q460E and G/T463E, in V3, C3 and V5 regions.

Conclusion

This study showed that HIV-1 may continue to evolve in presence of both broadly neutralizing antibodies and increasing autologous neutralizing activity more than 10 years post-infection.

Differential trends in the codon usage patterns in HIV-1 genes

Host-pathogen interactions underlie one of the most complex evolutionary phenomena resulting in continual adaptive genetic changes, where pathogens exploit the host's molecular resources for growth and survival, while hosts try to eliminate the pathogen. Deciphering the molecular basis of host-pathogen interactions is useful in understanding the factors governing pathogen evolution and disease propagation. In host-pathogen context, a balance between mutation, selection, and genetic drift is known to maintain codon bias in both organisms. Studies revealing determinants of the bias and its dynamics are central to the understanding of host-pathogen evolution. We considered the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) type 1 and its human host to search for evolutionary signatures in the viral genome. Positive selection is known to dominate intra-host evolution of HIV-1, whereas high genetic variability underlies the belief that neutral processes drive inter-host differences. In this study, we analyze the codon usage patterns of HIV-1 genomes across all subtypes and clades sequenced over a period of 23 years. We show presence of unique temporal correlations in the codon bias of three HIV-1 genes illustrating differential adaptation of the HIV-1 genes towards the host preferred codons. Our results point towards gene-specific translational selection to be an important force driving the evolution of HIV-1 at the population level.

Taking multiple infections of cells and recombination into account leads to small within-host effective-population-size estimates of HIV-1

Whether HIV-1 evolution in infected individuals is dominated by deterministic or stochastic effects remains unclear because current estimates of the effective population size of HIV-1 in vivo, N(e), are widely varying. Models assuming HIV-1 evolution to be neutral estimate N(e)~10²-10⁴, smaller than the inverse mutation rate of HIV-1 (~10⁵), implying the predominance of stochastic forces. In contrast, a model that includes selection estimates N(e)>10⁵, suggesting that deterministic forces would hold sway. The consequent uncertainty in the nature of HIV-1 evolution compromises our ability to describe disease progression and outcomes of therapy. We perform detailed bit-string simulations of viral evolution that consider large genome lengths and incorporate the key evolutionary processes underlying the genomic diversification of HIV-1 in infected individuals, namely, mutation, multiple infections of cells, recombination, selection, and epistatic interactions between multiple loci. Our simulations describe quantitatively the evolution of HIV-1 diversity and divergence in patients. From comparisons of our simulations with patient data, we estimate N(e)~10³-10⁴, implying predominantly stochastic evolution. Interestingly, we find that N(e) and the viral generation time are correlated with the disease progression time, presenting a route to a priori prediction of disease progression in patients. Further, we show that the previous estimate of N(e)>10⁵ reduces as the frequencies of multiple infections of cells and recombination assumed increase. Our simulations with N(e)~10³-10⁴ may be employed to estimate markers of disease progression and outcomes of therapy that depend on the evolution of viral diversity and divergence.

Analysis of selection pressure and mutational pattern of HIV type 1 reverse transcriptase region among treated and nontreated patients

Variation of the HIV-1 subtype C reverse transcriptase region (RT) resulting in response to the selective pressures of drug therapy remains poorly characterized. Here, we compared the genetic variation resulting in the presence and absence of antiretroviral drug selective pressures on HIV-1 subtype C RT among nontreated and treated patients. The nucleotide variability, nonsynonymous and synonymous ratio, and the positively selected mutations were determined by comparing the RT sequences isolated at two time points among nontreated (baseline and follow-up) and treated patients (baseline and treatment failure). Compared to the nontreated patients, the intrapatient nucleotide variability, the number of nonsynonymous and synonymous substitutions was significantly higher among the treated patients. Among the mutations positively selected, the frequency of D121Y, I135R, and Q207E increased and the frequency of mutation S48T decreased significantly during treatment failure. Further studies are essential to discover the role of these mutations during treatment in HIV-1 subtype C.

Dynamic correlation between intrahost HIV-1 quasispecies evolution and disease progression

Quantifying the dynamics of intrahost HIV-1 sequence evolution is one means of uncovering information about the interaction between HIV-1 and the host immune system. In the chronic phase of infection, common dynamics of sequence divergence and diversity have been reported. We developed an HIV-1 sequence evolution model that simulated the effects of mutation and fitness of sequence variants. The amount of evolution was described by the distance from the founder strain, and fitness was described by the number of offspring a parent sequence produces. Analysis of the model suggested that the previously observed saturation of divergence and decrease of diversity in later stages of infection can be explained by a decrease in the proportion of offspring that are mutants as the distance from the founder strain increases rather than due to an increase of viral fitness. The prediction of the model was examined by performing phylogenetic analysis to estimate the change in the rate of evolution during infection. In agreement with our modeling, in 13 out of 15 patients (followed for 3–12 years) we found that the rate of intrahost HIV-1 evolution was not constant but rather slowed down at a rate correlated with the rate of CD4+ T-cell decline. The correlation between the dynamics of the evolutionary rate and the rate of CD4+ T-cell decline, coupled with our HIV-1 sequence evolution model, explains previously conflicting observations of the relationships between the rate of HIV-1 quasispecies evolution and disease progression.

Saturation of sequence divergence and a decline of diversity in later stages of infection have been commonly observed during HIV-1 infection, although the length of the time to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is highly variable among patients. To explain this common feature, we developed a simple sequence evolution model with two main components: (i) fitness, the number of offspring produced, and (ii) the proportion of offspring that are mutants. Assuming a decrease in the proportion of offspring that are mutants as virus variants evolve further from the founder strain, we were able to fit the universal trends of divergence and diversity. In contrast, neither the model with gradual increase of fitness nor the model with rapid emergence of virus variants with greater fitness explained the dynamics of divergence and diversity. The prediction of the model was confirmed in the majority of longitudinally followed patients; the rate of HIV-1 evolution was stationary before disease progresses; however, the rate slowed down at a rate correlated with the rate of immune cell decline. Deciphering dynamic correlation between the rate of HIV-1 evolution and the kinetics of immune cell level united previous conflicting observations of the relationships between the rate of HIV-1 evolution and disease progression.

The role of the humoral immune response in the molecular evolution of the envelope C2, V3 and C3 regions in chronically HIV-2 infected patients

Background

This study was designed to investigate, for the first time, the short-term molecular evolution of the HIV-2 C2, V3 and C3 envelope regions and its association with the immune response. Clonal sequences of the env C2V3C3 region were obtained from a cohort of eighteen HIV-2 chronically infected patients followed prospectively during 2–4 years. Genetic diversity, divergence, positive selection and glycosylation in the C2V3C3 region were analysed as a function of the number of CD4+ T cells and the anti-C2V3C3 IgG and IgA antibody reactivity

Results

The mean intra-host nucleotide diversity was 2.1% (SD, 1.1%), increasing along the course of infection in most patients. Diversity at the amino acid level was significantly lower for the V3 region and higher for the C2 region. The average divergence rate was 0.014 substitutions/site/year, which is similar to that reported in chronic HIV-1 infection. The number and position of positively selected sites was highly variable, except for codons 267 and 270 in C2 that were under strong and persistent positive selection in most patients. N-glycosylation sites located in C2 and V3 were conserved in all patients along the course of infection. Intra-host variation of C2V3C3-specific IgG response over time was inversely associated with the variation in nucleotide and amino acid diversity of the C2V3C3 region. Variation of the C2V3C3-specific IgA response was inversely associated with variation in the number of N-glycosylation sites.

Conclusion

The evolutionary dynamics of HIV-2 envelope during chronic aviremic infection is similar to HIV-1 implying that the virus should be actively replicating in cellular compartments. Convergent evolution of N-glycosylation in C2 and V3, and the limited diversification of V3, indicates that there are important functional constraints to the potential diversity of the HIV-2 envelope. C2V3C3-specific IgG antibodies are effective at reducing viral population size limiting the number of virus escape mutants. The C3 region seems to be a target for IgA antibodies and increasing N-linked glycosylation may prevent HIV-2 envelope recognition by these antibodies. Our results provide new insights into the biology of HIV-2 and its relation with the human host and may have important implications for vaccine design.

Primary HIV-1 R5 isolates from end-stage disease display enhanced viral fitness in parallel with increased gp120 net charge

To better understand the evolution of the viral envelope glycoproteins (Env) in HIV-1 infected individuals who progress to AIDS maintaining an exclusive CCR5-using (R5) virus population, we cloned and sequenced the env gene of longitudinally obtained primary isolates. A shift in the electrostatic potential towards an increased net positive charge was revealed in gp120 of end-stage viruses. Residues with increased positive charge were primarily localized in the gp120 variable regions, with the exception of the V3 loop. Molecular modeling indicated that the modifications clustered on the gp120 surface. Furthermore, correlations between increased Env net charge and lowered CD4(+) T cell counts, enhanced viral fitness, reduced sensitivity to entry inhibitors and augmented cell attachment were disclosed. In summary, this study suggests that R5 HIV-1 variants with increased gp120 net charge emerge in an opportunistic manner during severe immunodeficiency. Thus, we here propose a new mechanism by which HIV-1 may gain fitness.

HIV-1 Transmission, Replication Fitness and Disease Progression

Upon transmission, human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) establishes infection of the lymphatic reservoir, leading to profound depletion of the memory CD4+ T cell population despite the induction of the adaptive immune response. The rapid evolution and association of viral variants having distinct characteristics during different stages of infection, the level of viral burden, and rate of disease progression suggest a role for viral variants in this process. Here, we review the literature on HIV-1 variants and disease and discuss the importance of viral fitness for transmission and disease.

Modeling HIV infection dynamics: the role of recombination in the development of drug resistance

The benefit of recombination to HIV remains unclear because just as recombination can induce the association of favorable mutations and accelerate the development of multidrug resistance, it can also dissociate favorable combinations of mutations. The confounding influences of mutation, random genetic drift, selection and epistatic interactions between multiple resistance loci render the role of recombination difficult to unravel experimentally. Mathematical models provide valuable insights into the influence of recombination on the genomic diversification of HIV and the development of drug resistance in patients undergoing therapy, capture several recent experimental observations of HIV recombination quantitatively, and set the stage for the establishment of a robust framework for the identification of improved treatment protocols and guidelines for drug development.

Autologous neutralizing humoral immunity and evolution of the viral envelope in the course of subtype B human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection

Most human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-infected individuals develop an HIV-specific neutralizing antibody (NAb) response that selects for escape variants of the virus. Here, we studied autologous NAb responses in five typical CCR5-using progressors in relation to viral NAb escape and molecular changes in the viral envelope (Env) in the period from seroconversion until after AIDS diagnosis. In sera from three patients, high-titer neutralizing activity was observed against the earliest autologous virus variants, followed by declining humoral immune responses against subsequent viral escape variants. Autologous neutralizing activity was undetectable in sera from two patients. Patients with high-titer neutralizing activity in serum showed the strongest positive selection pressure on Env early in infection. In the initial phase of infection, gp160 length and the number of potential N-linked glycosylation sites (PNGS) increased in viruses from all patients. Over the course of infection, positive selection pressure declined as the NAb response subsided, coinciding with reversions of changes in gp160 length and the number of PNGS. A number of identical amino acid changes were observed over the course of infection in the viral quasispecies of different patients. Our results indicate that although neutralizing autologous humoral immunity may have a limited effect on the disease course, it is an important selection pressure in virus evolution early in infection, while declining HIV-specific humoral immunity in later stages may coincide with reversion of NAb-driven changes in Env.

Recombination increases human immunodeficiency virus fitness, but not necessarily diversity

Recombination can facilitate the accumulation of mutations and accelerate the emergence of resistance to current antiretroviral therapies for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Yet, since recombination can also dissociate favourable combinations of mutations, the benefit of recombination to HIV remains in question. The confounding effects of mutation, multiple infections of cells, random genetic drift and fitness selection that underlie HIV evolution render the influence of recombination difficult to unravel. We developed computer simulations that mimic the genomic diversification of HIV within an infected individual and elucidate the influence of recombination. We find, interestingly, that when the effective population size of HIV is small, recombination increases both the diversity and the mean fitness of the viral population. When the effective population size is large, recombination increases viral fitness but decreases diversity. In effect, recombination enhances (lowers) the likelihood of the existence of multi-drug resistant strains of HIV in infected individuals prior to the onset of therapy when the effective population size is small (large). Our simulations are consistent with several recent experimental observations, including the evolution of HIV diversity and divergencein vivo. The intriguing dependencies on the effective population size appear due to the subtle interplay of drift, selection and epistasis, which we discuss in the light of modern population genetics theories. Current estimates of the effective population size of HIV have large discrepancies. Our simulations present an avenue for accurate determination of the effective population size of HIVin vivoand facilitate establishment of the benefit of recombination to HIV.

Fifteen years of env C2V3C3 evolution in six individuals infected clonally with human immunodeficiency virus type 1

The study of the evolution of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) requires blood samples collected longitudinally and data on the approximate time point of infection. Although these requirements were fulfilled in several previous studies, the infectious sources were either unknown or heterogeneous genetically. In the present study, HIV-1 env C2V3C3 (nt 7029-7315) evolution was examined retrospectively in a cohort of hemophiliacs. Compared to other cohorts, the area of interest here was the infection of six hemophiliacs by the same virus strain, that is, the infecting viruses shared an identical genome. As expected, divergence from the founder sequence as well as interpatient divergence of the predominant virus strains increased significantly over time. Based on the V3 nucleotide sequences, CCR5 usage was predicted exclusively throughout the whole period of infection in all patients. Interestingly, common patterns of viral evolution were detected in the patients of the cohort. Four amino acid substitutions within the V3 loop emerged and persisted subsequently in five (positions 305 and 308 of the HXB2 gp120 reference sequence) and six patients (positions 325 and 328 in HXB2 gp120), respectively. These common changes within the V3 loop are likely to be enforced by HIV-1 specific immune response.

HIV-1 sequence evolution in vivo after superinfection with three viral strains

With millions of people infected worldwide, the evolution of HIV-1 in vivo has been the subject of much research. Although recombinant viruses were detected early in the epidemic, evidence that HIV-1 dual infections really occurred came much later. Dual infected patients, consisting of coinfected (second infection before seroconversion) and superinfected (second infection after seroconversion) individuals, opened up a new area of HIV-1 evolution studies. Here, we describe the in-depth analysis of HIV-1 over time in a patient twice superinfected with HIV-1, first with a subtype B (B2) strain and then with CRF01_AE after initial infection with a subtype B (B1) strain.

The nucleotide evolution of gag and env-V3 of the three strains followed a similar pattern: a very low substitution rate in the first 2–3 years of infection, with an increase in synonymous substitutions thereafter. Convergent evolution at the protein level was rare: only a single amino acid in a gag p24 epitope showed convergence in the subtype B strains. Reversal of CTL-epitope mutations were also rare, and did not converge. Recombinant viruses were observed between the two subtype B strains. Luciferase-assays suggested that the CRF01_AE long terminal repeat (LTR) constituted the strongest promoter, but this was not reflected in the plasma viral load. Specific real-time PCR assays based upon the env gene showed that strain B2 and CRF01_AE RNA was present in equal amounts, while levels of strain B1 were 100-fold lower.

All three strains were detected in seminal plasma, suggesting that simultaneous transmission is possible.

Genome-wide patterns of nucleotide polymorphism in domesticated rice

Domesticated Asian rice (Oryza sativa) is one of the oldest domesticated crop species in the world, having fed more people than any other plant in human history. We report the patterns of DNA sequence variation in rice and its wild ancestor, O. rufipogon, across 111 randomly chosen gene fragments, and use these to infer the evolutionary dynamics that led to the origins of rice. There is a genome-wide excess of high-frequency derived single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in O. sativa varieties, a pattern that has not been reported for other crop species. We developed several alternative models to explain contemporary patterns of polymorphisms in rice, including a (i) selectively neutral population bottleneck model, (ii) bottleneck plus migration model, (iii) multiple selective sweeps model, and (iv) bottleneck plus selective sweeps model. We find that a simple bottleneck model, which has been the dominant demographic model for domesticated species, cannot explain the derived nucleotide polymorphism site frequency spectrum in rice. Instead, a bottleneck model that incorporates selective sweeps, or a more complex demographic model that includes subdivision and gene flow, are more plausible explanations for patterns of variation in domesticated rice varieties. If selective sweeps are indeed the explanation for the observed nucleotide data of domesticated rice, it suggests that strong selection can leave its imprint on genome-wide polymorphism patterns, contrary to expectations that selection results only in a local signature of variation.

Progression of fibrosis during chronic hepatitis C is associated with rapid virus evolution

Hepatic fibrosis is the primary mediator of disease due to chronic infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV exists as a quasispecies in each infected individual, and longitudinal viral sequence changes may reveal viral dynamics and the selection pressures applied by the host immune system. Thus, we hypothesized that patterns of sequence change might reveal the immunopathogenesis of fibrosis progression. We tested this hypothesis by studying individuals enrolled in a prospective study of chronic HCV-related hepatic fibrosis with little or no fibrosis at first biopsy (stage 0 or 1) and a second planned liver biopsy sample obtained 4 years later. Serum was obtained from five individuals with fast progression (FP; defined as a >2-stage change between visits) and 10 carefully matched individuals with slow progression (SP; defined as a <2-stage change between visits). We sequenced multiple cloned hemigenomic cDNAs from each person spanning six genes (core through NS3). Phylogenetic analysis revealed temporal shifts in phylogenetic clustering over time, suggesting frequent quasispecies replacement rather than simple diversification. In addition, mixed infections were detected in three subjects, with coexistence in two subjects (one FP, one SP) of subtypes 1a and 1b throughout the 4-year biopsy interval. Subjects with FP had a higher rate of evolution than subjects with SP, with a preponderance of synonymous changes, suggesting purifying selection, except in hypervariable region 1, where positive selection pressure is frequently detected. Thus, in a small but carefully matched cohort we found evidence for rapid neutral evolution of HCV in persons with rapid progression of hepatic fibrosis, suggesting higher turnover of infected cells.

Lack of temporal structure in the short term HIV-1 evolution within asymptomatic naïve patients

HIV-1 evolution in the envelope gene (env) was analyzed in four asymptomatic antiretroviral therapy naïve patients with typical and slow disease progression rates. In typical progressors, viral populations were monophyletic and two distinct evolutionary patterns were observed. In one patient, HIV-1 evolution displayed a strong temporal structure similar to the consistent pattern previously described. In the other, viral evolution displayed a lack of temporal structure with no increase in genetic heterogeneity and divergence over time. In slow progressors, several clades were observed in viral populations. However, analysis within the major sub-population revealed the same two evolutionary patterns described for typical progressors. Synonymous and non-synonymous substitution rate analyses indicated that positive selection was the major force driving HIV-1 evolution in viral populations with temporal structure, while evolution in viral populations with an atemporal structure was dominated by genetic drift and purifying selection. These results support the existence of distinct patterns of env evolution in untreated HIV-1-infected patients.

Synonymous substitution rates predict HIV disease progression as a result of underlying replication dynamics

Upon HIV transmission, some patients develop AIDS in only a few months, while others remain disease free for 20 or more years. This variation in the rate of disease progression is poorly understood and has been attributed to host genetics, host immune responses, co-infection, viral genetics, and adaptation. Here, we develop a new “relaxed-clock” phylogenetic method to estimate absolute rates of synonymous and nonsynonymous substitution through time. We identify an unexpected association between the synonymous substitution rate of HIV and disease progression parameters. Since immune activation is the major determinant of HIV disease progression, we propose that this process can also determine viral generation times, by creating favourable conditions for HIV replication. These conclusions may apply more generally to HIV evolution, since we also observed an overall low synonymous substitution rate for HIV-2, which is known to be less pathogenic than HIV-1 and capable of tempering the detrimental effects of immune activation. Humoral immune responses, on the other hand, are the major determinant of nonsynonymous rate changes through time in the envelope gene, and our relaxed-clock estimates support a decrease in selective pressure as a consequence of immune system collapse.

During the clinical course of HIV infection, an asymptomatic phase always precedes the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The duration of this asymptomatic phase is highly variable among patients and reflects the rate at which the immune system gradually deteriorates. Although humoral and cell-mediated immune responses are mounted against HIV, continuous replication and adaptation allows the virus to escape host immune responses. To gain a better understanding of the role of viral evolution in disease progression, we developed a new computational technique that can estimate changes in the absolute rates of synonymous and nonsynonymous divergence through time from molecular sequences. Using this type of evolutionary inference, we have identified a previously unknown association between the “silent” evolutionary rate of HIV and the rate of disease progression in infected individuals. This finding demonstrates that cellular immune processes, which are already known to determine HIV pathogenesis, also determine viral replication rates and therefore impose important constraints on HIV evolution.

Analysis of the overdispersed clock in the short-term evolution of hepatitis C virus: Using the E1/E2 gene sequences to infer infection dates in a single source outbreak

The assumption of a molecular clock for dating events from sequence information is often frustrated by the presence of heterogeneity among evolutionary rates due, among other factors, to positively selected sites. In this work, our goal is to explore methods to estimate infection dates from sequence analysis. One such method, based on site stripping for clock detection, was proposed to unravel the clocklike molecular evolution in sequences showing high variability of evolutionary rates and in the presence of positive selection. Other alternatives imply accommodating heterogeneity in evolutionary rates at various levels, without eliminating any information from the data. Here we present the analysis of a data set of hepatitis C virus (HCV) sequences from 24 patients infected by a single individual with known dates of infection. We first used a simple criterion of relative substitution rate for site removal prior to a regression analysis. Time was regressed on maximum likelihood pairwise evolutionary distances between the sequences sampled from the source individual and infected patients. We show that it is indeed the fastest evolving sites that disturb the molecular clock and that these sites correspond to positively selected codons. The high computational efficiency of the regression analysis allowed us to compare the site-stripping scheme with random removal of sites. We demonstrate that removing the fast-evolving sites significantly increases the accuracy of estimation of infection times based on a single substitution rate. However, the time-of-infection estimations improved substantially when a more sophisticated and computationally demanding Bayesian method was used. This method was used with the same data set but keeping all the sequence positions in the analysis. Consequently, despite the distortion introduced by positive selection on evolutionary rates, it is possible to obtain quite accurate estimates of infection dates, a result of especial relevance for molecular epidemiology studies.