Association of aspartate aminotransferase with mortality in hemodialysis patients

Specific patterns and potential risk factors to predict 3-year risk of death among non-cancer patients with advanced chronic kidney disease by machine learning

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health concern. But there are limited machine learning studies on non-cancer patients with advanced CKD, and the results of machine learning studies on cancer patients with CKD may not apply directly on non-cancer patients. We aimed to conduct a comprehensive investigation of risk factors for a 3-year risk of death among non-cancer advanced CKD patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60.0 mL/min/1.73m2 by several machine learning algorithms. In this retrospective cohort study, we collected data from in-hospital and emergency care patients from 2 hospitals in Taiwan from 2009 to 2019, including their international classification of disease at admission and laboratory data from the hospital's electronic medical records (EMRs). Several machine learning algorithms were used to analyze the potential impact and degree of influence of each factor on mortality and survival. Data from 2 hospitals in northern Taiwan were collected with 6565 enrolled patients. After data cleaning, 26 risk factors and approximately 3887 advanced CKD patients from Shuang Ho Hospital were used as the training set. The validation set contained 2299 patients from Taipei Medical University Hospital. Predictive variables, such as albumin, PT-INR, and age, were the top 3 significant risk factors with paramount influence on mortality prediction. In the receiver operating characteristic curve, the random forest had the highest values for accuracy above 0.80. MLP, and Adaboost had better performance on sensitivity and F1-score compared to other methods. Additionally, SVM with linear kernel function had the highest specificity of 0.9983, while its sensitivity and F1-score were poor. Logistic regression had the best performance, with an area under the curve of 0.8527. Evaluating Taiwanese advanced CKD patients' EMRs could provide physicians with a good approximation of the patients' 3-year risk of death by machine learning algorithms.

Circulating miRNA 122-5p Expression Predicts Mortality and Cardiovascular Events in Chronic Hemodialysis Patients: A Multicentric, Pilot, Prospective Study

BACKGROUND

Despite patients undergoing chronic hemodialysis (HD) being notoriously prone to adverse cardiovascular (CV) events, risk prediction in this population remains challenging. miRNA 122-5p, a short, non-coding RNA predominantly involved in lipid and carbohydrate metabolism, has recently been related to the onset and progression of CV disease.

METHODS

We run a pilot, multicenter, longitudinal, observational study to evaluate the clinical significance and prognostic usefulness of circulating miRNA 122-5p in a multicentric cohort of 74 individuals on maintenance HD.

RESULTS

Patients displayed lower circulating miRNA 122-5p as compared to healthy controls (p = 0.004). At correlation analyses, ALT (β = 0.333; p = 0.02), E/e' (β = 0.265; p = 0.02) and CRP (β = -0.219; p = 0.041) were independent predictors of miRNA 122-5p levels. During a median follow-up of 22 months (range of 1-24), 30 subjects (40.5%) experienced a composite endpoint of all-cause mortality and fatal/non-fatal CV events. Baseline circulating miRNA 122-5p was higher in these subjects (p = 0.01) and it predicted a significantly higher risk of endpoint occurrence (Kaplan-Meier crude HR 3.192; 95% CI 1.529-6.663; p = 0.002; Cox regression adjusted HR 1.115; 95% CI 1.009-1.232; p = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

Altered miRNA 122-5p levels in HD patients may reflect hepatic and CV damage and may impart important prognostic information for improving CV risk prediction in this particular setting.

High Aspartate Aminotransferase/Alanine Aminotransferase Ratio May Be Associated with All-Cause Mortality in the Elderly: A Retrospective Cohort Study Using Artificial Intelligence and Conventional Analysis

Low serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) activity and high aspartate aminotransferase (AST)/ALT ratio may be associated with high mortality in the elderly. We aimed to confirm this in an 8-year retrospective cohort study. Clinical data for 5958 people living in a city aged 67−104 years were analyzed for their relationships with all-cause mortality using artificial intelligence (AI) and conventional statistical analysis. In total, 1413 (23.7%) participants died during the study. Auto-AI analysis with five rounds of cross-validation showed that AST/ALT ratio was the third-largest contributor to mortality, following age and sex. Serum albumin concentration and body mass index were the fourth- and fifth-largest contributors. However, when serum ALT and AST were individually considered in the same model, the individual serum ALT and AST activities were the seventh- and tenth-largest contributors. Conventional survival analysis showed that ALT, AST, and AST/ALT ratio as continuous variables were all associated with mortality (adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals): 0.98 (0.97−0.99), 1.02 (1.02−1.03), and 1.46 (1.32−1.62), respectively; all p < 0.0001). In conclusion, both AI and conventional analysis suggest that of the conventional biochemical markers, high AST/ALT ratio is most closely associated with all-cause mortality in the elderly.

Application of regularized regression to identify novel predictors of mortality in a cohort of hemodialysis patients

Cohort studies often provide a large array of data on study participants. The techniques of statistical learning can allow an efficient way to analyze large datasets in order to uncover previously unknown, clinically relevant predictors of morbidity or mortality. We applied a combination of elastic net penalized Cox regression and stability selection with the aim of identifying novel predictors of mortality in a cohort of prevalent hemodialysis patients. In our analysis we included 475 patients from the "rISk strAtification in end-stage Renal disease" (ISAR) study, who we split into derivation and confirmation cohorts. A wide array of examinations was available for study participants, resulting in over a hundred potential predictors. In the selection approach many of the well established predictors were retrieved in the derivation cohort. Additionally, the serum levels of IL-12p70 and AST were selected as mortality predictors and confirmed in the withheld subgroup. High IL-12p70 levels were specifically prognostic of infection-related mortality. In summary, we demonstrate an approach how statistical learning can be applied to a cohort study to derive novel hypotheses in a data-driven way. Our results suggest a novel role of IL-12p70 in infection-related mortality, while AST is a promising additional biomarker in patients undergoing hemodialysis.

A retrospective cross-sectional study for predicting 72-h mortality in patients with serum aspartate aminotransferase levels ≥ 3000 U/L

Risk factors associated with 72-h mortality in patients with extremely high serum aspartate aminotransferase levels (AST; ≥ 3000 U/L) are unknown. This single-centre, retrospective, case-controlled, cross-sectional study obtained data from medical records of adult patients treated at Saitama Medical Center, Japan, from 2005 to 2019. We conducted a multivariate logistic after adjusting for age, sex, height, weight, body mass index, Brinkman Index, vital signs, biochemical values, updated Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score, CCI components, and underlying causes. A logistic regression model with selected validity risks and higher C-statistic for predicting 72-h mortality was established. During the 15-year period, 428 patients (133 non-survivors and 295 survivors [cases and controls by survival < 72 and ≥ 72 h, respectively]) with AST levels ≥ 3000 U/L were identified. The 72-h mortality rate was 133/428 (31.1%). The model used for predicting 72-h mortality through the assessment of alkaline phosphatase, creatine kinase, serum sodium, potassium, and phosphorus levels had a C-statistic value of 0.852 (sensitivity and specificity, 76.6%). The main independent risk factors associated with 72-h mortality among patients with AST levels ≥ 3000 U/L included higher serum values of alkaline phosphatase, creatine kinase, serum sodium, potassium, and phosphorus.

The risk factors for treatment-related mortality within first three months after kidney transplantation

Mortality at an early stage after kidney transplantation is a disastrous event. Treatment-related mortality (TRM) within 1 or 3 months after kidney transplantation has been rarely reported. We designed a cohort study using the national Korean Network for Organ Sharing database that includes information about kidney recipients between 2002 and 2016. Their demographic, and laboratory data were collected to analyze risk factors of TRM. A total of 19,815 patients who underwent kidney transplantation in any of 40 medical centers were included. The mortality rates 1 month (early TRM) and 3 months (TRM) after transplantation were 1.7% (n = 330) and 4.1% (n = 803), respectively. Based on a multivariate analysis, older age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.044), deceased donor (HR = 2.210), re-transplantation (HR = 1.675), ABO incompatibility (HR = 1.811), higher glucose (HR = 1.002), and lower albumin (HR = 0.678) were the risk factors for early TRM. Older age (HR = 1.014), deceased donor (HR = 1.642), and hyperglycemia (HR = 1.003) were the common independent risk factors for TRM. In contrast, higher serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase (HR = 1.010) was associated with TRM only. The identified risk factors should be considered in patient counselling, and management to prevent TRM. The recipients assigned as the high-risk group require intensive management including glycemic control at the initial stage after transplant.

Does Exposure to Computed Tomography Contrast Media Increase Risk of End-Stage Renal Disease?

Background

There are many studies on acute kidney injury (AKI) after exposure to contrast media in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, whether the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) increases after exposure to contrast media in the long term, regardless of development of AKI after such exposure, has not been studied.

Material/Methods

The electronic health records of patients diagnosed with CKD and followed up from 2014 to 2018 at a tertiary university hospital were retrospectively collected. Patients were divided into patients who progressed to ESRD (ESRD group) and those who did not (non-ESRD group). Patients in the non-ESRD group were matched 1: 1 to those in the ESRD group by using disease risk score generation and matching. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the effect of contrast media exposure on progression to ESRD.

Results

In total, 179 patients were enrolled per group; 178 (99.4%) were in CKD stage 3 or above in both groups. Average serum creatinine was 4.31±3.02 mg/dl and 3.64±2.55 mg/dl in the ESRD and non-ESRD groups, respectively (p=0.242). Other baseline characteristics were not statistically significant, except for the number of times contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) was performed (0.00 [Interquartile range (IQR) 0.00–2.00] in the ESRD group and 0.00 [IQR 0.00–1.00] in the non-ESRD group [p=0.006]); in multivariate logistic regression, this number (OR=1.24, 95% CI=1.08–1.47, p=0.006) was significantly related to progression to ESRD.

Conclusions

The use of CECT increased the risk of ESRD 1.2-fold in advanced and stable CKD outpatients after 5-year follow-up.

The Impact of Vascular Access Types on Hemodialysis Patient Long-term Survival

Vascular access (VA) is the cornerstone for carrying out hemodialysis, yet it may bring in complications and leads to hemodialysis quality decline. This study aimed to explore the impact of vascular access types, including arteriovenous shunts and central venous catheter on all-cause mortality after adjustment of other risk factors. Total 738 ESRD patients aged over 40 year old receiving regular hemodialysis therapies were recruited between January 2001 and December 2010 from a single hemodialysis center in northern Taiwan. We ascertained the causes and date of death by linking our hospital database with Nationwide Mortality Registry Database. VA types and biochemistry parameters were extracted from the electronic hospital records. Patients were categorized into three groups, including (1)arteriovenous shunts (AVF)/arteriovenous shunts with Gortex®(AVG); (2)AVF/AVG combined central venous catheter; (3)catheter only. The time-dependent influence of vascular types i.e. initiation and follow-up period was also assessed. The mean follow-up time was 4.5 years. In patients using central venous catheter for initiation of hemodialysis, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality was 1.55(95%CI: 1.09, 2.21), when compared with AVF/AVG. In the follow-up period, after adjustment for other risk factors, the multivariable analysis showed that the adjusted HRs were 3.23(95%CI: 1.85, 5.64) and 1.45(95%CI: 1.11, 1.91) for catheter only and AVF/AVG plus catheter, respectively. Our results showed that vascular accesses used for hemodialysis had different and time-dependent impact on patients' long-term survival. Patients who started hemodialysis with central venous catheter had significantly higher all-cause mortality rate. Furthermore, in the follow-up period, patients both in the catheter only and AVF/AVG plus catheter groups also had the significant all-cause mortality rates. Our results support the early establishment of arteriovenous shunt for the chronic kidney disease patients.

Associations of serum liver enzyme levels and their changes over time with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the general population: a large-scale national health screening cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the associations of the levels of liver enzymes, such as alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and gamma glutamyltransferase (GGT), at baseline and their changes over time with mortality.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING, PARTICIPANTS AND OUTCOME MEASURES

We analysed the data of 484 472 individuals from the National Health Insurance Service-National Health Screening Cohort (2002-2013). We used two exposure indices: (1) deciles of baseline ALT, AST and GGT levels measured in 2002 or 2003 and (2) deciles of changes in ALT, AST and GGT levels over a 4 year period (2002-2006 or 2003-2007). We constructed Cox models to evaluate the associations of these exposure indices with mortality (2008-2013).

RESULTS

We found non-monotonic dose-response associations between the baseline levels of ALT and AST and all-cause mortality. We also found a monotonic non-linear association between the baseline levels of GGT and all-cause mortality (10th decile: HR=2.05, 95% CI: 1.93 to 2.18). Compared with the ninth, sixth and fourth deciles of changes in ALT (8-13 U/L), AST (1 U/L) and GGT (-3 to -2 U/L) over time, respectively, the risks of all-cause mortality increased in both the higher and lower deciles of changes in the corresponding liver enzyme levels (10th decile: HR=1.36, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.48; 1st decile: HR=1.46, 95% CI 1.34 to 1.59 for ALT; 10th decile: 1.55, 95% CI 1.40 to 1.71; 1st decile: HR=1.53, 95% CI 1.38 to 1.69 for AST; 10th decile: HR=1.71, 95% CI 1.56 to 1.88; 1st decile: HR=1.67, 95% CI 1.52 to 1.84 for GGT). These non-monotonic dose-response associations remained when analyses were stratified by the medians or quartiles of the baseline liver enzyme levels.

CONCLUSIONS

The levels of liver enzymes at baseline and over time showed non-linear associations with mortality.

Comprehensive Analysis of Factors Affecting Clinical Response and Short-Term Survival to Drug-Eluting Bead Transarterial Chemoembolization for Treatment in Patients With Liver Cancer

This study aimed to investigate the clinical response and short-term survival and further explore the comprehensive factors for predicting clinical outcomes in patients with liver cancer treated by drug-eluting beads transarterial chemoembolization . Forty-nine patients with liver cancer who received drug-eluting beads transarterial chemoembolization treatment were consecutively enrolled in this cohort study. Demographic features, medical histories, clinicopathological properties, biochemical indexes, previous treatments, and chemoembolization reagents were recorded. Ten (20.4%) patients achieved complete response and 31 (63.3%) patients achieved partial response after drug-eluting beads transarterial chemoembolization treatment, with overall response rate of 83.7%. Logistic analysis revealed that high aspartate aminotransferase (P = .041), high carbohydrate antigen 199 (P = .030), and low hemoglobin (P = .020) could independently predict less possibility for complete response achievement. As to survival analysis, high alkaline phosphatase (P = .040), low albumin (P = .033) low hemoglobin (P = .018), portal vein invasion (P = .025), higher Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (P = .011), and higher Child-pugh stage (P = .001) were independent predictors for worse overall survival. In conclusion, the present study validated that drug-eluting beads transarterial chemoembolization was effective and well tolerated for patients with liver cancer, and high aspartate aminotransferase, high alkaline phosphatase, low albumin, low hemoglobin, portal vein invasion, higher Child-pugh stage, higher Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage, higher Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status were correlated with worse outcomes.