E-cigarettes: Comparing the Possible Risks of Increasing Smoking Initiation with the Potential Benefits of Increasing Smoking Cessation

Relationship Between Product Features and the Prices of e-Cigarette Devices Sold in Web-Based Vape Shops: Comparison Study Using a Linear Regression Model

BACKGROUND

Open-system electronic cigarette (EC) product features, such as battery capacity, maximum output wattage, and so forth, are major components that drive product costs and may influence use patterns. Moreover, continued innovation and monitoring of product features and prices will provide critical information for designing appropriate taxation policies and product regulations.

OBJECTIVE

This study will examine how product features are associated with the prices of devices sold in web-based vape shops.

METHODS

We draw samples from 5 popular, US-based, web-based vape shops from April to August 2022 to examine starter kits, device-only products, and e-liquid container-only products. We implemented a linear regression model with a store-fixed effect to examine the association between device attributes and prices.

RESULTS

EC starter kits or devices vary significantly by type, with mod prices being much higher than pod and vape pen prices. The prices of mod starter kits were even lower than those of mod devices, suggesting that mod starter kits are discounted in web-based vape shops. The price of mod kits, mod device-only products, and pod kits increased as the battery capacity and output wattage increased. For vape pens, the price was positively associated with the volume size of the e-liquid container. On the other hand, the price of pod kits was positively associated with the number of containers.

CONCLUSIONS

A unit-based specific tax, therefore, will impose a higher tax burden on lower-priced devices such as vape pens or pod systems and a lower tax burden on mod devices. A volume- or capacity-based specific tax on devices will impose a higher tax burden on vape pens with a larger container size. Meanwhile, ad valorem taxes pegged to wholesale or retail prices would apply evenly across device types, meaning those with advanced features such as higher battery capacities and output wattage would face higher rates. Therefore, policy makers could manipulate tax rates by device type to discourage the use of certain device products.

E-cigarettes in Nigeria: A scoping review of evidence

Background and Aims

E-cigarettes will continue to be a public health issue in Nigeria. To curb the growing menace of the e-cigarette use in Nigeria through evidence-based approach, it is crucial to first map the empirical research landscape of e-cigarettes in Nigeria. No known study has mapped the existing empirical evidence and gaps concerning e-cigarettes in Nigeria; hence, this scoping review was conducted.

Methods

This scoping review adopted the research design by Arksey and O'Malley. Four databases (PubMed, SCOPUS, CINAHL Complete, and APA PsycINFO) were searched to retrieve literature on e-cigarettes in Nigeria. With the aid of Rayyan web application, all retrieved literature were deduplicated and screened based on the review's eligibility criteria. Only those peer-reviewed journal papers meeting the inclusion criteria were included in the review. Relevant data from the included papers were charted, collated, and summarized.

Results

A total of six papers were included in this review. The reviewed papers reported a lifetime prevalence of e-cigarette use (or vaping) ranging from 5.8% to 19.8%, with a current e-cigarette use prevalence of 11.8%, among different population groups in Nigeria. The major determinants of e-cigarette use, as reported in these articles, include being a youth, having a health condition, severe anxiety, tobacco use, peer influence, and current alcohol use. Dry mouth and oral lesions (gingival inflammation and oral ulcers) were also identified to be the medical conditions associated with e-cigarette use in Nigeria. Lastly, one of the included papers identified a lack of clear regulation on e-cigarettes in Nigeria.

Conclusion

There is an urgent need for more scientific investigations on the sociodemographic, economic, health, and regulatory landscape of e-cigarettes in Nigeria, as robust empirical evidence is needed for the effective planning, implementation, and evaluation of evidence-based policies and interventions on e-cigarettes control and regulation in Nigeria.

Examining Perceptions of Uncertain Language in Potential E-Cigarette Warning Labels: Results from 16 Focus Groups with Adult Tobacco Users and Youth

E-cigarette use among youth presents a public health risk. Yet, cigarette smokers who substantially reduce their smoking or switch completely from traditional combustible cigarettes could benefit. As science about e-cigarettes is continually emerging, any potential warnings are likely to contain uncertain language. Hedged verbiage may impact decision making. To assess reactions, we conducted 16 online focus groups; 8 with youth (n = 32, grouped by gender and by vaping experience) and 8 with adult tobacco users (n = 37, grouped by smokers, dual users of e-cigarettes and cigarettes, and former smokers who switched to e-cigarettes). Each focus group viewed and discussed 8 potential warnings messages. We conducted an inductive thematic analysis of the reactions to warning messages that contain uncertain language. Respondents' reactions were often negative, but varied based on specific usages of uncertainty, existing beliefs about uncertainty in law and science, and smoking/vaping use patterns that supported the use of uncertainty related to e-cigarettes. Many youth (and some adults) believed that uncertain language enabled audiences to minimize the likelihood of harm or interpreted it as meaning there are both healthy and unhealthy e-cigarettes. This qualitative study provides evidence that the use of types of uncertain language, the frequency of that use, and/or the selection of particular words in warnings, might not achieve the intended public health aims of increasing understanding of risk, deterring youth uptake, and/or facilitating a substantial switch from cigarettes. The use of certain types of uncertain language appears to have significant potential to bring unintended consequences. Suggestions for research and policy are included.

The smoking and vaping model, A user-friendly model for examining the country-specific impact of nicotine VAPING product use: application to Germany

BACKGROUND

Simulation models play an increasingly important role in tobacco control. Models examining the impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) and smoking tend to be highly specialized and inaccessible. We present the Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM),a user-friendly cohort-based simulation model, adaptable to any country, that projects the public health impact of smokers switching to NVPs.

METHODS

SAVM compares two scenarios. The No-NVP scenario projects smoking rates in the absence of NVPs using population projections, deaths rates, life expectancy, and smoking prevalence. The NVP scenario models vaping prevalence and its impact on smoking once NVPs became popular. NVP use impact is estimated as the difference in smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths (SVADs) and life-years lost (LYLs) between the No-NVP and NVP scenarios. We illustrate SAVM's adaptation to the German adult ages 18+ population, the Germany-SAVM by adjusting the model using population, mortality, smoking and NVP use data.

RESULTS

Assuming that the excess NVP mortality risk is 5% that of smoking, Germany-SAVM projected 4.7 million LYLs and almost 300,000 SVADs averted associated with NVP use from 2012 to 2060. Increasing the excess NVP mortality risk to 40% with other rates constant resulted in averted 2.8 million LYLs and 200,000 SVADs during the same period.

CONCLUSIONS

SAVM enables non-modelers, policymakers, and other stakeholders to analyze the potential population health effects of NVP use and public health interventions.

Clinical impact of vaping on cardiopulmonary function and lung cancer development: an update

The word 'vaping' is used to define the usage of electronic cigarettes or other instruments to inhale a wide variety of heated and aerosolized substances. Although proposed as a less dangerous and oncogenic alternative than standard nicotine products, e-cigarettes and vaping devices are quite far from being considered benign. In fact, although vaping devices do not generate carcinogenic agents as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons produced by the combustion of standard cigarettes and their liquids do not present tobacco-related carcinogens like nitrosamines, there is nowadays clear evidence that they produce dangerous products during their use. Several different molecular mechanisms have been proposed for the oncogenic impact of vaping fluids - by means of their direct chemical action or derivative products generated by pyrolysis and combustion ranging from epithelial-mesenchymal transition, redox stress and mitochondrial toxicity to DNA breaks and fragmentation. In this review we focus on vaping devices, their potential impact on lung carcinogenesis, vaping-associated lung injury and other clinical implications on cardiovascular, cerebrovascular and respiratory diseases, as well as on the psychological implication of e-cigarettes both on heavy smokers trying to quit smoking and on younger non-smokers approaching vaping devices because they are considered as a less dangerous alternative to tobacco cigarettes.

Curiosity and intentions to use myblu e-cigarettes and an examination of the 'gateway' theory: Data from cross-sectional nationally representative surveys

Encouraging adult smokers who are uninterested or unwilling to quit, and would otherwise continue to smoke, to transition to potentially less harmful nicotine products such as electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) may positively impact population health. However, counterbalancing this benefit is the societal concern that ENDS may be used by never smokers and youth and serve as a 'gateway' into cigarette smoking. Data were analysed from two independent surveys of the prevalence and perceptions of myblu ENDS use in the United States. Total sample size was 22,232 young adults and 23,264 adults. Being curious to use myblu was 1.6-2.0 times more likely in young adult current smokers than young adult never smokers. This likelihood was 2.8 times greater for adult current smokers compared with adult never smokers in the perceptions survey, while in the prevalence survey, there was no difference between adult current and never smokers. Intentions to use myblu were significantly greater in young adult current smokers compared with young adult never smokers in both surveys and in adults in the prevalence survey. In all surveys and age cohorts, 124 of 45,496 participants (0.1% of the total survey population) reported first using myblu prior to smoking cigarettes and went on to become established smokers. Curiosity and intentions to use myblu were generally higher in current smokers compared with never smokers. There was minimal evidence to suggest the existence of a 'gateway' effect to established cigarette smoking among never-smoking myblu users.

Predicting the long-term effects of electronic cigarette use on population health: a systematic review of modelling studies

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review and synthesise the findings of modelling studies on the population impacts of e-cigarette use and to identify potential gaps requiring future investigation.

DATA SOURCE AND STUDY SELECTION

Four databases were searched for modelling studies of e-cigarette use on population health published between 2010 and 2023. A total of 32 studies were included.

DATA EXTRACTION

Data on study characteristics, model attributes and estimates of population impacts including health outcomes and smoking prevalence were extracted from each article. The findings were synthesised narratively.

DATA SYNTHESIS

The introduction of e-cigarettes was predicted to lead to decreased smoking-related mortality, increased quality-adjusted life-years and reduced health system costs in 29 studies. Seventeen studies predicted a lower prevalence of cigarette smoking. Models that predicted negative population impacts assumed very high e-cigarette initiation rates among non-smokers and that e-cigarette use would discourage smoking cessation by a large margin. The majority of the studies were based on US population data and few studies included factors other than smoking status, such as jurisdictional tobacco control policies or social influence.

CONCLUSIONS

A population increase in e-cigarette use may result in lower smoking prevalence and reduced burden of disease in the long run, especially if their use can be restricted to assisting smoking cessation. Given the assumption-dependent nature of modelling outcomes, future modelling studies should consider incorporating different policy options in their projection exercises, using shorter time horizons and expanding their modelling to low-income and middle-income countries where smoking rates remain relatively high.

Impacts of EU Tobacco Products Directive regulations on use of e-cigarettes in adolescents in Great Britain: a natural experiment evaluation

Background

E-cigarettes are a popular smoking-cessation tool. Although less harmful than tobacco, use of e-cigarettes by non-smokers should be prevented. There is concern about the use of e-cigarettes by young people and that e-cigarettes may renormalise smoking. In May 2016, Tobacco Products Directive regulations aimed to reduce e-cigarettes' appeal to young people.

Aims

To examine the effects of the Tobacco Products Directive regulations on young people's use of e-cigarettes, and the role of e-cigarettes in renormalising smoking.

Design

A mixed-method natural experimental evaluation combining secondary analyses of survey data, with process evaluation, including interviews with young people, policy stakeholders, retailers and trading standards observers, and observations of retail settings.

Settings

Wales, Scotland and England.

Participants

Survey participants were aged 13-15 years, living in England, Scotland or Wales and participated in routinely conducted surveys from 1998 to 2019. Process evaluation participants included 14- to 15-year-olds in England, Scotland and Wales, policy stakeholders, trading standards offices and retailers.

Intervention

Regulation of e-cigarettes, including bans on cross-border advertising, health warnings and restrictions on product strength.

Comparison group

Interrupted time series design, with baseline trends as the comparator.

Main outcome measures

The primary outcome was ever e-cigarette use. Secondary outcomes included regular use, ever and regular smoking, smoking attitudes, alcohol and cannabis use.

Data capture and analysis

Our primary statistical analysis used data from Wales, including 91,687 young people from the 2013-19 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children and School Health Research Network surveys. In Scotland, we used the Scottish Schools Adolescent Lifestyle and Substance Use Survey and in England we used the Smoking Drinking and Drug Use surveys. The process evaluation included interviews with 73 young people in 2017 and 148 young people in 2018, 12 policy stakeholders, 13 trading standards officers and 27 retailers. We observed 30 retail premises before and after implementation. Data were integrated using the Medical Research Council's process evaluation framework.

Results

Ever smoking continued to decline alongside the emergence of e-cigarettes, with a slight slowing in decline for regular use. Tobacco Products Directive regulations were described by stakeholders as well implemented, and observations indicated good compliance. Young people described e-cigarettes as a fad and indicated limited interaction with the components of the Tobacco Products Directive regulations. In primary statistical analyses in Wales [i.e. short (to 2017) and long term (to 2019)], growth in ever use of e-cigarettes prior to Tobacco Products Directive regulations did not continue after implementation. Change in trend was significant in long-term analysis, although of similar magnitude at both time points (odds ratio 0.96). Data from England and Scotland exhibited a similar pattern. Smoking followed the opposite pattern, declining prior to the Tobacco Products Directive regulations, but plateauing as growth in e-cigarette use stalled.

Limitations

Alternative causal explanations for changes cannot be ruled out because of the observational design.

Conclusions

Young people's ever and regular use of e-cigarettes appears to have peaked around the time of the Tobacco Products Directive regulations and may be declining. Although caution is needed in causal attributions, findings are consistent with an effect of regulations. Our analysis provides little evidence that e-cigarettes renormalise smoking. More recent data indicate that declines in smoking are plateauing.

Future work

International comparative work to understand differences in use of e-cigarettes, and tobacco, within varying regulatory frameworks is a priority.

Study registration

This study is registered as ResearchRegistry4336.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 11, No. 5. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Vaping among Norwegians who smoke or formerly smoked: reasons, patterns of use, and smoking cessation activity

BACKGROUND

The majority of Norwegians who use e-cigarettes are adults who have smoked. Little is known about vaping reasons and -patterns in this group. The aim of this paper was to study vaping prevalence, patterns, and motivations among adults who smoke. Furthermore, to investigate smoking intensity and smoking cessation behaviour differences between those who vape and those who do not.

METHODS

This study was based on two separate Norwegian samples: People who had ever smoked, from 2017 (N = 2099), and people who currently smoked and recent quitters, from 2018/2019 (N = 1336). Measures of vape frequencies, vape motives, and smoking cessation behaviours were utilised in descriptive analyses of relationships between vaping and smoking behaviour.

RESULTS

Less than 1 in 10 in the ever-smoked group, 1 in 5 of the currently smoked or recently quit group, were currently vaping. Ever trial rates for vaping were much higher at 1 in 3 in the ever-smoked group, and 1 in 2 in the currently smoked or recently quit group. Dual use with combustible cigarettes was common, but people who smoked tended to use e-cigarettes less frequently while those who formerly smoked tended to use them more frequently. Both quitting attempts and smoking intensity reduction were positively associated with vaping, and the most common reasons for e-cigarette use were reported to be desires to reduce harm, to stop smoking, or to reduce smoking intensity.

CONCLUSION

The results indicate that Norwegians who smoke tend to see e-cigarettes as a tool to reduce or completely stop smoking. The predominance of use-motivations related to reducing harm points at the importance of conveying correct information about relative harmfulness of tobacco- and nicotine products.

Differences in cessation attempts and cessation methods by race/ethnicity among US adult smokers, 2016-2018

BACKGROUND

Advice to quit smoking and cessation patterns vary by race/ethnicity in the United States. This study aims to provide the up-to-date prevalence of quit advice, quit attempts and use of smoking cessation methods (particularly e-cigarettes) by race/ethnicity among US adult smokers.

METHODS

We used data from Wave 4 (2016-2018) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study. Using past-12-month and current adult cigarette smokers (n = 9,272), we conducted multivariable models to examine the association between race/ethnicity and advice to quit and quit attempts. Further, using a subset of those who made quit attempts (n = 5,046), we examined the use of smoking cessation methods, including e-cigarettes, by race/ethnicity, controlling for associated factors.

RESULTS

Compared to Non-Hispanic [NH] White smokers, Hispanic smokers were less likely to receive quit advice (aPR [95 % CI] = 0.88 [0.78, 1.00]), but more likely to make quit attempts (1.14 [1.06, 1.23]). NH Black smokers (vs. NH Whites) were more likely to receive quit advice (1.06 [1.00, 1.12]) and more likely to make quit attempts (1.22 [1.15, 1.29]). NH Black smokers (vs. NH Whites) were more likely to use behavioral treatment (e.g., counseling) (1.84 [1.22, 2.77]). Hispanic smokers were less likely to use e-cigarettes to quit smoking than Whites (0.48 [0.33, 0.71]) and use pharmacotherapy (0.62 [0.44, 0.88]).

CONCLUSIONS

We found different patterns in cessation attempts and cessation methods by race/ethnicity among US adult smokers. Efforts to eliminate disparities must increase access and use of proven cessation therapies for these groups.

Sales of Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems (ENDS) and Cigarette Sales in the USA: A Trend Break Analysis

Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) are a potentially lower-risk tobacco product which could help smokers switch completely away from cigarettes. However, the lack of strong evidence to date of a measurable, population-level effect on reducing smoking has generated skepticism about ENDS' potential benefits. This study examines whether increased US ENDS sales have been associated with reduced cigarette sales. Retail data on weekly per-capita cigarette and ENDS purchases in the USA during 2014-2019 were obtained from a national sample of brick-and-mortar retail outlets. Trends in cigarette sales were modeled before (2014-2016) ENDS had a substantial market share, and, after adjusting for macroeconomic factors, projected into the post-period (2017-2019). Actual cigarette sales were lower than projected sales (by up to 16% across the post-period), indicating a substantial "cigarette shortfall" in the post-period. To explore whether general (i.e., inclusive of potentially many mechanisms) substitution by ENDS can explain the cigarette shortfall, its association with per-capita ENDS volume sales was examined. Higher ENDS sales were significantly associated with a greater cigarette shortfall: for every additional per-capita ENDS unit, cigarette sales were 1.4 packs-per-capita lower than expected (B = 1.4, p < .0001). Error correction models which account for spurious correlation yielded similar results. These findings support ENDS serving as a substitute for cigarettes (through potentially many mechanisms including cigarette price), causing cigarette consumption to decline. Since ENDS potentially pose lower risk than cigarettes, this general substitution effect suggests that risk-proportionate tobacco regulation could mitigate the tobacco-related health burden.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10603-022-09533-4.

E-Cigarette Markets and Policy Responses in Southeast Asia: A Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

The global e-cigarette market has proliferated and is increasingly dominated by transnational tobacco companies. While Southeast Asian countries have received relatively little attention in e-cigarette research, the region represents an area of potentially untapped growth for the industry. We review the e-cigarette situation in Southeast Asia in terms of the e-cigarette markets, advertising and promotion of e-cigarettes, reported health impacts of e-cigarette use, and policy responses in the region.

METHODS

We examined e-cigarette market data from the Euromonitor Global Market Information Database (GMID) Passport database, searched in the academic literature, grey literature and news archives for any reports or studies of e-cigarette related diseases or injuries, e-cigarette marketing, and e-cigarette policy responses in Southeast Asian countries, and browsed the websites of online e-cigarette retailers catering to the region's active e-cigarette markets.

RESULTS

In 2019, e-cigarettes were sold in six Southeast Asian markets with a total market value of $595 million, projected to grow to $766 million by 2023. E-commerce is a significant and growing sales channel in the region, with most of the popular or featured brands in online shops originating from China. Southeast Asian youth are targeted with a wide variety of flavours, trendy designs and point of sale promotions, and several e-cigarette related injuries and diseases have been reported in the region. Policy responses vary considerably between countries, ranging from strict bans to no or partial regulations.

CONCLUSION

Although Southeast Asia's e-cigarette market is relatively nascent, this is likely to change if transnationals invest more heavily in the region. Populous countries with weak e-cigarette regulations, notably Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines, are desirable targets for the transnationals. Regulatory action is needed to prevent e-cigarette use from becoming entrenched into these societies, especially among young people.

Impact of vaping on respiratory health

Widespread uptake of vaping has signaled a sea change in the future of nicotine consumption. Vaping has grown in popularity over the past decade, in part propelled by innovations in vape pen design and nicotine flavoring. Teens and young adults have seen the biggest uptake in use of vape pens, which have superseded conventional cigarettes as the preferred modality of nicotine consumption. Relatively little is known, however, about the potential effects of chronic vaping on the respiratory system. Further, the role of vaping as a tool of smoking cessation and tobacco harm reduction remains controversial. The 2019 E-cigarette or Vaping Use-Associated Lung Injury (EVALI) outbreak highlighted the potential harms of vaping, and the consequences of long term use remain unknown. Here, we review the growing body of literature investigating the impacts of vaping on respiratory health. We review the clinical manifestations of vaping related lung injury, including the EVALI outbreak, as well as the effects of chronic vaping on respiratory health and covid-19 outcomes. We conclude that vaping is not without risk, and that further investigation is required to establish clear public policy guidance and regulation.

E-cigarette Transitions Among US Youth and Adults: Results from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study (2013-2018)

Currently, the debate surrounding the regulation of e-cigarettes focuses mainly on the size of e-cigarettes' potentially beneficial effects (i.e., adult cessation) versus their unwarranted effects (i.e., initiation among tobacco-naïve adolescents). Therefore, we investigated the relative scale of e-cigarette use transitions in the United States. We reported cross-sectional weighted prevalence estimates of past-month e-cigarette use by ever cigarette use from Waves 1-4 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study (2013-2018) among youth (12-17 years) and adults (≥ 18 years). We also examined past-month e-cigarette mono and dual transitions related to cigarette smoking and reported the longitudinal weighted prevalence across waves. Among youth new e-cigarette users, the proportion of never-cigarette smokers increased from 24.1 in Wave 1 (n = 418) to 51.4% in Wave 4 (n = 310) (p < 0.0001 for trend). Of youth past-month e-cigarette mono-users in Wave 1 (n = 151), 15.2% transitioned to cigarette mono-use and 8.2% dual-use at Wave 2 or 3 or 4, compared to 60.2% no tobacco use and 16.4% e-cigarette mono-use. Among young adult past-month dual-users (18-24 years; n = 684), 22.6% transitioned to no tobacco use, 60.1% continued cigarette use, 11.4% dual use, and 5.9% e-cigarette mono-use. Among adult dual-users ≥ 25 years old (n = 1560), 13.6% transitioned to no tobacco use, 71.3% cigarette mono-use, 9.0% dual-use, and 6.1% e-cigarette mono-use. Transition to cigarette mono-use and continued dual-use were common among adult past-month e-cigarette users, while e-cigarette initiation was common among youth never-cigarette smokers. These findings contrast with data from other countries showing limited evidence of e-cigarette initiation among youth never cigarette smokers. Both e-cigarette and cigarette use should be addressed in youth and adults, given the potential for dual use in both populations.

A targeted approach to using e-cigarettes for harm reduction in adults

Smoking remains the leading preventable cause of death and disease in the US. While e-cigarettes (EC) are undeniably harmful when used by adolescents and nonsmokers, the perpetuation of the increasing negative perceptions of EC and widespread false belief that EC are equal or more harmful than combustible cigarettes (CC) represents a significant missed public health opportunity. EC have great potential to serve as a mechanism for smoking harm reduction among hard-to-treat populations of smokers who have failed to quit with currently available treatments. In this paper, we outline why we need to overcome the hostile EC research environment to explore the potential use of EC as a harm-reduction strategy in hard-to-treat populations.

Preferred flavors and tobacco use patterns in adult dual users of cigarettes and ENDS

OBJECTIVES

This study examined how adult dual users of cigarettes and electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) flavor preference varied by demographics, tobacco history, motives, and expectancies for ENDS, and how ENDS flavor preference was associated with changes in cigarette and ENDS use over 12 months.

METHODS

Data come from the baseline and 12-month waves of an observational study of adult dual cigarette and ENDS users (N = 406). Flavor preferences were grouped into 4 categories: tobacco (12.6%), menthol/mint (34.7%), sweet (44.8%), and other (7.9%).

RESULTS

Users of sweet-flavored ENDS were significantly younger than those who used tobacco- or menthol flavors. Black dual users were significantly more likely than other racial groups to use menthol and less likely to use sweet flavors. Dual users who preferred sweet flavors smoked cigarettes on fewer days than those who preferred tobacco and menthol flavors, were less cigarette dependent, more strongly endorsed boredom reduction expectancies and motives related to taste and sensory experience and were more likely to stop smoking by 12 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Dual users of cigarettes and ENDS who preferred sweet flavored ENDS differed in demographics, tobacco history, motives, expectancies, and smoking changes. Findings have implications for interventions and regulations.

Electronic cigarettes as a harm reduction strategy among patients with COPD: protocol for an open-label two arm randomized controlled pilot trial

Background

Smoking cessation is the most effective means of slowing the decline of lung function associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). While effective smoking cessation treatments are available, they are underutilized and nearly half of people with COPD continue to smoke. By addressing both nicotine and behavioral dependence, electronic cigarettes (EC) could help people with COPD reduce the harm of combustible cigarettes (CC) through reductions in number of Cigarettes per Day (CPD) or quitting CC completely. The purpose of this pilot study is to identify barriers and facilitators to the use of and assess the preliminary effectiveness of EC as a harm reduction strategy among people with COPD.

Methods

In an open-label two-arm randomized controlled trial pilot study, 60 patients identified as smokers with a COPD diagnosis via electronic health records from a large urban health center are randomized in a 1:1 ratio to either standard care [counseling + nicotine replacement therapy (NRT)] or counseling + EC. The NRT arm will receive nicotine patches and nicotine lozenges for 12 weeks. The EC arm will receive EC for 12 weeks. Both cohorts will receive counseling from a licensed mental health counselor. Using ecological momentary assessment, participants will report their use of CC in both arms and EC use in the EC arm daily via text message. Primary outcomes will be feasibility and acceptability of intervention, and secondary outcomes will be reduction in CPD and change in COPD symptoms as measured by COPD Assessment Tool (CAT) score at 12-weeks. EC displacement of CC. To explore attitudes towards the use of EC as a harm-reduction strategy for patients with COPD, interviews will be performed with a sample of participants from both study arms.

Discussion

Despite decades of availability of smoking cessation medications, nearly half of people with COPD still smoke. This study aims to address the unmet need for feasible and effective strategies for reducing CC use among those with COPD, which has the potential to significantly improve the health of people with COPD who smoke.

Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04465318.

Association of E-Cigarettes With Erectile Dysfunction: The Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study

INTRODUCTION

Smoking is independently associated with erectile dysfunction and cardiovascular disease. Given existing similarities in the constituents of e-cigarettes or ENDS and cigarettes, this study examines the association between ENDS use and erectile dysfunction.

METHODS

Data from Wave 4 (2016-2018) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study were analyzed in 2020. Male participants aged ≥20 years who responded to the erectile dysfunction question were included. Multivariable logistic regression models examined the association of ENDS use with erectile dysfunction within the full sample and in a restricted sample (adults aged 20-65 years with no previous cardiovascular disease diagnosis) while adjusting for multiple risk factors.

RESULTS

The proportion of erectile dysfunction varied from 20.7% (full sample) to 10.2% (restricted sample). The prevalence of current ENDS use within the full and restricted samples was 4.8% and 5.6%, respectively, with 2.1% and 2.5%, respectively, reporting daily use. Current daily ENDS users were more likely to report erectile dysfunction than never users in both the full (AOR=2.24, 95% CI=1.50, 3.34) and restricted (AOR=2.41, 95% CI=1.55, 3.74) samples. In the full sample, cardiovascular disease history (versus not present) and age ≥65 years (versus age 20-24 years) were associated with erectile dysfunction (AOR=1.39, 95% CI=1.10, 1.77; AOR= 17.4, 95% CI=12.15, 24.91), whereas physical activity was associated with lower odds of erectile dysfunction in both samples (AOR range=0.44-0.58).

CONCLUSIONS

The use of ENDS seems to be associated with erectile dysfunction independent of age, cardiovascular disease, and other risk factors. While ENDS remain under evaluation for harm reduction and smoking-cessation potential, ENDS users should be informed about the possible association between ENDS use and erectile dysfunction.

Youth Demographic Characteristics and Risk Perception of Using Alternative Tobacco Products: An Analysis of the 2014-2015 Canadian Student Tobacco, Alcohol, and Drugs Survey (CSTADS)

Background

There is a growing attraction by youth to alternative tobacco products (ATPs) such as e-cigarettes and hookahs. This study investigated risk perceptions and demographic characteristics associated with ATP use in grade 8-10 students.

Methods

Data were drawn from the 2014/15 cycle of the CSTADS. The analytic sample included 1819 students from a total pool of 42 094 students who completed the survey. Logistic regression models were used to examine factors (demographic characteristics and risk perception) associated with ATP use in the past 30 days.

Results

12% of students in grade 8-10 self-identified as having used ATPs in the past 30-days, with a majority of students in grade 10 (56%). Male students had higher odds of reporting ATP use when compared to females. Although a lesser proportion of Indigenous students reported ATP use in comparison to White students (31% vs 61%), Indigenous students were 2.42 (1.49, 3.93) times as likely to use ATPs as White students. Students who perceived smoking hookah once in a while as "no to slight risk" were 1.58 (1.09, 2.28) times more likely to report ATP use than students who perceived "moderate to great risk." Also, students who perceived using e-cigarettes on a regular basis as "no to slight risk" were 2.21 (1.53, 3.21) times more likely to report ATP use as students who perceived "moderate-great risk."

Conclusion

A significant number of grade 8-10 students use ATPs, especially e-cigarettes, with the misconception of minimal health risks. There remains the need to do more to counteract the rise in social and epidemiological alternative tobacco use trends among the youth.

Improving on estimates of the potential relative harm to health from using modern ENDS (vaping) compared to tobacco smoking

BACKGROUND

Although the harm to health from electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) compared to smoked tobacco remains highly uncertain, society and governments still need to know the likely range of the relative harm to inform regulatory policies for ENDS and smoking.

METHODS

We identified biomarkers with specificity of association with different disease groupings e.g., volatile organic compound (VOCs) for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; and tobacco-specific N´-nitrosamines (TSNAs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) for all cancers. We conducted a review of recent studies (post January 2017) that compared these biomarkers between people exclusively using ENDS and those exclusively smoking tobacco. The percentage differences in these biomarkers, weighted by study size and adjusted for acrolein from other sources, were used as a proxy for the assumed percentage difference in disease harm between ENDS and smoking. These relative differences were applied to previously modelled estimates of smoking-related health loss (in health-adjusted life-years; HALYs).

RESULTS

The respective relative biomarker levels (ENDS vs smoking) were: 28% for respiratory diseases (five results, three studies); 42% for cancers (five results, four studies); and 35% for cardiovascular (seven results, four studies). When integrated with the HALY impacts by disease, the overall harm to health from ENDS was estimated to be 33% that of smoking.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis, suggests that the use of modern ENDS devices (vaping) could be a third as harmful to health as smoking in a high-income country setting. But this estimate is based on a limited number of biomarker studies and is best be considered a likely upper level of ENDS risk given potential biases in our method (i.e., the biomarkers used being correlated with more unaccounted for toxicants in smoking compared to with using ENDS).

Modeling the public health impact of e-cigarettes on adolescents and adults

Since the introduction of electronic cigarettes to the U.S. market in 2007, vaping prevalence has surged in both adult and adolescent populations. E-cigarettes are advertised as a safer alternative to traditional cigarettes and as a method of smoking cessation, but the U.S. government and health professionals are concerned that e-cigarettes attract young non-smokers. Here, we develop and analyze a dynamical systems model of competition between traditional and electronic cigarettes for users. With this model, we predict the change in smoking prevalence due to the introduction of vaping, and we determine the conditions under which e-cigarettes present a net public health benefit or harm to society.

Delayed Reward Discounting as a Prognostic Factor for Smoking Cessation Treatment Outcome: A Systematic Review

INTRODUCTION

While large proportions of smokers attempt to quit, rates of relapse remain high and identification of valid prognostic markers is of high priority. Delayed reward discounting (DRD) is a behavioral economic index of impulsivity that has been associated with smoking cessation, albeit inconsistently. This systematic review sought to synthesize the empirical findings on DRD as a predictor of smoking cessation treatment outcome, to critically appraise the quality of the literature, and to propose directions for future research.

AIMS AND METHODS

A total of 734 articles were identified, yielding k = 14 studies that met the eligibility criteria. The Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool was used to assess methodological quality of the included studies.

RESULTS

Individual study methods were highly heterogeneous, including substantial variation in research design, DRD task, clinical subpopulation, and treatment format. The predominant finding was that steeper DRD (higher impulsivity) was associated with significantly worse smoking cessation outcomes (10/14 studies). Negative results tended to be in pregnant and adolescent subpopulations. The QUIPS results suggested low risk of bias across studies; 11/14 studies were rated as low risk of bias for 5/6 QUIPS domains.

CONCLUSIONS

This review revealed consistent low-bias evidence for impulsive DRD as a negative prognostic predictor of smoking cessation treatment outcome in adults. However, methodological heterogeneity was high, precluding meta-analysis and formal tests of small study bias. The prospects of targeting impulsive DRD as a potentially modifiable risk factor or providing targeted treatment for smokers exhibiting high levels of discounting are discussed.

IMPLICATIONS

These findings indicate consistent evidence for DRD as a negative prognostic factor for smoking cessation outcome in adults. As such, DRD may be a useful as a novel treatment target or for identifying high-risk populations requiring more intensive treatment.

Co-creating opportunities to incorporate cessation for electronic nicotine delivery systems in family medicine - a qualitative program evaluation

Background

The number of Americans who use tobacco has decreased in the twenty-first century, but electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) have increased the complexity of treating tobacco dependence. The experiences of 18 family medicine practices were explored and opportunities to improve ENDS cessation were co-created in this study.

Methods

Eighteen family medicine practices were enrolled into an implementation project to incorporate ENDS cessation into their practice. The participants’ experiences were explored throughout the project using an iterative qualitative approach. The research team provided technical assistance. Semi-structured group interviews and focus groups were held with participants at the beginning, middle, and end of the project to explore participants’ experiences. The collective knowledge and experiences of participants, expert consultants and the research team were fused together to co-create opportunities to improve ENDS cessation.

Results

Nine opportunities to improve ENDS cessation were identified in three larger categories. The first category was leading change. This included: creating a vision for change to establish buy-in from key stakeholders and educate health care professionals to improve their confidence to address ENDS. The second category was creating processes. This included: establishing criteria for screening and quality improvement for ENDS cessation; being specific when asking about ENDS; creating electronic health record systems to support incorporating ENDS cessation; using chart audits if electronic health records cannot support incorporating ENDS into tobacco cessation; and assigning roles and responsibilities to members of the clinical care team. The third category was assisting patients who use ENDS. This included: educating patients and their parents/caregivers about ENDS and their potential harms, avoiding dual use, and developing a plan to quit.

Conclusions

This study highlights challenges and opportunities for incorporating ENDS cessation into family medicine. The opportunities outlined here provide a practical approach which is rooted in the experiences of family physicians and their clinical care teams working to improve how they address ENDS and based on peer reviewed literature and expert input. Improving how ENDS are addressed in family medicine will require more than clinical expertise. It will also require leadership skills and the ability to create process improvements.

Trial registration

Not applicable

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12875-021-01520-x.

How Does the Use of Flavored Nicotine Vaping Products Relate to Progression Toward Quitting Smoking? Findings From the 2016 and 2018 ITC 4CV Surveys

INTRODUCTION

There is limited research on the role of flavors in nicotine vaping products (NVPs) in relation to smoking. We examined patterns of flavor use in NVPs in relation to progression toward quitting.

AIMS AND METHODS

Data come from 886 concurrent users of NVPs (at least weekly) and cigarettes who were first surveyed in 2016 and then successfully recontacted in 2018 as part of the ITC 4CV Surveys conducted in Australia, Canada, England, and the United States. Participants were asked about their main vaping flavor categorized as: (1) tobacco or unflavored, (2) menthol or mint flavored, and (3) "sweet" flavors (eg, fruit or candy). We examined whether flavor was associated with progression toward quitting smoking between survey years.

RESULTS

Overall, 11.1% of baseline concurrent users quit smoking by 2018. Compared with users of tobacco flavors, those vaping "sweet" flavors were more likely to quit smoking between surveys (13.8% vs. 9.6%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-2.58, p < .05), but those using menthol flavors were no more likely to quit smoking (8.3% vs. 9.6%, aOR = 0.87, 95% CI 0.43-1.47, p = .69). Among those who had quit smoking in 2018, 52.0% were still vaping, which was lower than the 65.8% among continuing smokers (aOR = 0.60, 95% CI 0.39-0.92, p = .02). Sweet flavor users were no more likely to continue vaping compared with tobacco flavor users, either for those continuing smoking or those having quit smoking by 2018. There was a net shift away from tobacco flavor among those who continued to vape at follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Use of fruit and other sweet flavored e-liquids is positively related to smokers' transition away from cigarettes.

IMPLICATIONS

With multiple jurisdictions considering limiting or banning the sale of flavored NVPs, it is important to consider how such policies may impact smokers using NVPs to transition away from cigarette smoking. Our results indicate that vapers who used sweet flavors were more likely to transition away from cigarette smoking and quit cigarette use, at least in the short term, compared with those who used tobacco or unflavored NVPs. Randomized clinical trials are needed to establish if the observed association between use of flavored e-liquids and smoking cessation is due to self-selection or is truly causal.

A content analysis of the tweets of e-cigarette proponents in Australia

ISSUE ADDRESSED

Social media sites have become platforms for public discourse on e-cigarettes, providing proponents with an opportunity to disseminate favourable information about the devices. Research examining the information being presented by Australian proponents of e-cigarettes is limited. Accordingly, this study explored the Twitter feeds of Australian proponents of e-cigarettes to determine the nature of the e-cigarette-related content being disseminated.

METHODS

All publicly available e-cigarette-related tweets and retweets (n = 1397) disseminated over a 15-week period by five Australian e-cigarette proponents were captured and analysed.

RESULTS

The main topics covered in the 1397 tweets analysed related to (a) criticism of the arguments made by public health agencies/advocates who oppose e-cigarettes (29%), (b) Australian e-cigarette policy (19%), (c) the health risks of e-cigarettes (16%) and (d) the efficacy of e-cigarettes as smoking cessation aids (13%). Proponents argued that the precautionary principle adopted by public health agencies/advocates lacks an appropriate evidence base and that legalising e-cigarettes would reduce smoking rates and smoking-related harm. Proponents minimised the risks associated with e-cigarette use and only presented evidence indicating that use facilitates smoking cessation.

CONCLUSIONS

The assessed tweets have the potential to reduce the public's trust in the information being presented by authoritative public health agencies/advocates. The dissemination of information downplaying the health risks associated with e-cigarettes may distort perceptions of the devices. SO WHAT?: To assist tobacco control efforts, results highlight the need for (a) ongoing surveillance of the tweets of e-cigarette proponents and (b) provision of evidence-based counterarguments on social media.

Experimenting first with e-cigarettes versus first with cigarettes and transition to daily cigarette use among adolescents: the crucial effect of age at first experiment

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Most studies in English-speaking countries have found a positive association between e-cigarette experimentation and subsequent daily tobacco smoking among adolescents. However, this result may not be valid in other cultural contexts; in addition, few studies have assessed whether this association varies with the subject' age at the time of e-cigarette experimentation. This study aimed to estimate the association between experimenting first with e-cigarette (rather than tobacco) and subsequent daily smoking according to age at the time of experimentation.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis; risk ratios (RRs) computed using modified Poisson regressions with inverse probability weighting.

SETTING

A cross-sectional nation-wide representative survey performed in 2017 in France.

PARTICIPANTS

French adolescents (n = 24 111), aged 17 to 18.5 years, who had previously experimented with either e-cigarettes or tobacco.

MEASURES

Exposure was defined as the experimentation with e-cigarettes first (whether or not followed by experimentation with tobacco); the outcome as daily tobacco smoking at the time of data collection. Gender, age, literacy, socio-economic status, pre-exposure repeat school years and experimentation with drunkeness, 3 licit and 8 illicit drugs were adjusted for. Uncertainties about the sequence of events defining exposure were handled by the definition of three patterns of exposure, to avoid a misclassification bias.

FINDINGS

Exposure reduced the risk of transition to daily smoking: RR = 0.58, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.54, 0.62. This effect increased in a linear manner with age at exposure (RR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.78; 0.98 for 1 year, P < 0.001): from RR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.09; 1.54 at age 9 to RR = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.32; 0.45 at age 17.

CONCLUSIONS

Experimenting with e-cigarettes first (as opposed to tobacco first) appears to be associated with a reduction in the risk of daily tobacco smoking among French adolescents aged 17-18.5, but this risk varies negatively with age at experimentation, and early e-cigarette experimenters are at higher risk.

Implementation of e-cigarette regulation through the EU Tobacco Products Directive (2016) in Wales, Scotland and England from the perspectives of stakeholders involved in policy introduction and enforcement

INTRODUCTION

From May 2016, the European Union introduced the Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) regulations, which included restrictions to advertising and new safety and labeling standards for e-cigarette products. This represented the first supranational policy regulating e-cigarette sales and marketing. This study explores perceptions of TPD and its implementation in Wales, Scotland and England, from perspectives of stakeholders involved in tobacco and e-cigarette policy and implementation in each nation.

METHODS

Semi-structured qualitative interviews were completed with 12 stakeholders from government and third sector organizations in the UK involved in tobacco control policy-making processes, and Trading Standards Officers from 13 UK local authorities. Data were analyzed thematically and a sub-sample double-coded.

RESULTS

Stakeholders held varying views of e-cigarettes, recognizing potential benefits and harms of both the products and the new policy actions. Nevertheless, most perceived TPD to be a positive step in introducing regulation for e-cigarettes. Compliance was perceived as high across nations, although stakeholders highlighted product adaptations to circumvent restrictions, and absence of controls on non-nicotine products. Budgetary and staffing limitations also meant that capacity to communicate new measures, and enforce change, was limited. This led to a gap occupied by industry representatives, who played a substantial role in preparing retailers for adoption of new measures.

CONCLUSIONS

TPD policy roll-out was largely perceived positively and as having been effectively implemented. However, contribution of industry to communication of new measures and absence of resourcing for effective communication perhaps introduced widespread innovations within regulations. While largely viewed positively, some refinements to device regulations were proposed.

Applying the Population Health Standard to the Regulation of Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems

Regulatory authorities have devoted increasing attention and resources to a range of issues surrounding the regulation of novel nicotine and tobacco products. This review highlights the inherent complexity of evaluating prospective policies that pertain to products that heat solutions containing nicotine, but not tobacco leaf, sometimes referred to as electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS). The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is compelled to incorporate a set of public health criteria in their decision making, collectively referred to as the Population Health Standard. Adherence to this standard is necessary to estimate the impact of prospective ENDS policy decisions on net population harm associated with nontherapeutic nicotine products. For policies that are expected to decrease or increase ENDS use, application of the Population Health Standard requires a comprehensive assessment of the status quo impact of ENDS use on population health. Accordingly, this review first assesses the state of the evidence on the direct harms of ENDS and the indirect effects of ENDS use on smoking, particularly rates of initiation and cessation. After that, the example of flavor restrictions is used to demonstrate the further considerations that are involved in applying the Population Health Standard to a prospective ENDS policy. Implications: This narrative review aims to inform regulatory considerations about ENDS through the prism of the Population Health Standard. More specifically, this review (1) describes and explains the importance of this approach; (2) provides guidance on evaluating the state of the evidence linking ENDS to the net population harm associated with nontherapeutic nicotine products; and (3) illustrates how this framework can inform policymaking using the example of flavor restrictions.

US Nicotine Vaping Product SimSmoke Simulation Model: The Effect of Vaping and Tobacco Control Policies on Smoking Prevalence and Smoking-Attributable Deaths

The public health impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) is subject to a complex set of uncertain transitions between NVP and cigarette use. Instead, we apply an indirect method to gauge the impact of NVP use on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) using the well-established SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model. Upon validating the model before NVPs were more widely used, we project a No-NVP (i.e., in the absence of NVPs) while controlling for the impact of cigarette-oriented policies. The net impact of NVPs on smoking prevalence is inferred by comparing the projected No-NVP smoking trends to corresponding trends from two US national surveys. Using the TUS-CPS estimates for the period 2012-2018, we estimate that adult smoking prevalence declined in relative terms by 9.7% (95% CI: 7.5-11.7%) for males and 10.7% (95% CI: 9.1-13.0%) for females. Compared to NHIS, smoking prevalence declined by 10.7% (95% CI: 6.8-14.6%) for males and 11.3% (95% CI: 7.4-15.6%) for females. These impacts were confined mainly to ages 18-44. Vaping-related reductions in smoking prevalence were projected to avert nearly 0.4 million SADs between 2012 and 2052. Our analysis indicates that NVP use is associated with substantial reductions in US smoking prevalence among younger adults.

Estimating the Population Health Impact of Recently Introduced Modified Risk Tobacco Products: A Comparison of Different Approaches

Introduction

Various approaches have been used to estimate the population health impact of introducing a Modified Risk Tobacco Product (MRTP).

Aims and Methods

We aimed to compare and contrast aspects of models considering effects on mortality that were known to experts attending a meeting on models in 2018.

Results

Thirteen models are described, some focussing on e-cigarettes, others more general. Most models are cohort-based, comparing results with or without MRTP introduction. They typically start with a population with known smoking habits and then use transition probabilities either to update smoking habits in the “null scenario” or joint smoking and MRTP habits in an “alternative scenario”. The models vary in the tobacco groups and transition probabilities considered. Based on aspects of the tobacco history developed, the models compare mortality risks, and sometimes life-years lost and health costs, between scenarios. Estimating effects on population health depends on frequency of use of the MRTP and smoking, and the extent to which the products expose users to harmful constituents. Strengths and weaknesses of the approaches are summarized.

Conclusions

Despite methodological differences, most modellers have assumed the increase in risk of mortality from MRTP use, relative to that from cigarette smoking, to be very low and have concluded that MRTP introduction is likely to have a beneficial impact. Further model development, supplemented by preliminary results from well-designed epidemiological studies, should enable more precise prediction of the anticipated effects of MRTP introduction.

Implications

There is a need to estimate the population health impact of introducing modified risk nicotine-containing products for smokers unwilling or unable to quit. This paper reviews a variety of modeling methodologies proposed to do this, and discusses the implications of the different approaches. It should assist modelers in refining and improving their models, and help toward providing authorities with more reliable estimates.

Youth Vaping and Tobacco Use in Context in the United States: Results From the 2018 National Youth Tobacco Survey

INTRODUCTION

According to the National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS), youth e-cigarette use (vaping) rose between 2017 and 2018. Frequency of vaping and concurrent past 30-day (p30d) use of e-cigarettes and tobacco products have not been reported.

METHODS

We analyzed the 2018 NYTS (N = 20 189) for vaping among all students (middle and high school; 6-12th grades; 9-19 years old) by frequency of vaping, exclusive vaping, p30d poly-product use (vaping and use of one or more tobacco product), and any past tobacco product use.

RESULTS

In 2018, 81.4% of students had not used any tobacco or vapor product in the p30d, and 86.2% had not vaped in the p30d. Among all students, of the 13.8% vaped in the p30d, just over half vaped on ≤5 days (7.0%), and roughly a quarter each vaped on 6-19 days (3.2%) and on 20+ days (3.6%). Almost three quarters of p30d vapers (9.9%) reported past or concurrent tobacco use and the remainder (3.9%) were tobacco naïve. 2.8% of students were tobacco naïve and vaped on ≤5 days; 0.7% were tobacco-naïve and vaped on 6-19 days, and 0.4% were tobacco-naïve and vaped on 20+ days.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaping increased among US youth in 2018 over 2017. The increases are characterized by patterns of low p30d vaping frequency and high poly-product use, and a low prevalence of vaping among more frequent but tobacco naïve vapers.

IMPLICATIONS

Results underscore the importance of including the full context of use patterns. The majority of vapers (60.0%-88.9% by use frequency) were concurrent p30d or ever tobacco users. About 4% of students were tobacco naïve and vaped in the p30d, but few (0.4%) vaped regularly on 20 or more days. Reporting youth vaping data with frequency and tobacco product co-use will give public health decision-makers the best possible information to protect public health.

Public health implications of vaping in the USA: the smoking and vaping simulation model

Background

Nicotine vaping products (NVPs) are increasingly popular worldwide. They may provide public health benefits if used as a substitute for smoking, but may create public health harms if used as a gateway to smoking or to discourage smoking cessation. This paper presents the Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM), a user-friendly model which estimates the public health implications of NVPs in the USA.

Methods

SAVM adopts a cohort approach. We derive public health implications by comparing smoking- and NVP-attributable deaths and life-years lost under a No-NVP and an NVP Scenario. The No-NVP Scenario projects current, former, and never smoking rates via smoking initiation and cessation rates, with their respective mortality rates. The NVP Scenario allows for smoking- and NVP-specific mortality rates, switching from cigarette to NVP use, separate NVP and smoking initiation rates, and separate NVP and smoking cessation rates. After validating the model against recent US survey data, we present the base model with extensive sensitivity analyses.

Results

The SAVM projects that under current patterns of US NVP use and substitution, NVP use will translate into 1.8 million premature smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths avoided and 38.9 million life-years gained between 2013 and 2060. When the NVP relative risk is set to 5%, the results are sensitive to the level of switching and smoking cessation rates and to a lesser extent smoking initiation rates. When the NVP relative risk is raised to 40%, the public health gains in terms of averted deaths and LYL are reduced by 42% in the base case, and the results become much more sensitive to variations in the base case parameters.

Discussion

Policymakers, researchers, and other public health stakeholders can apply the SAVM to estimate the potential public health impact of NVPs in their country or region using their own data sources. In developing new simulation models involving NVPs, it will be important to conduct extensive sensitivity analysis and continually update and validate with new data.

Conclusion

The SAVM indicates the potential benefits of NVP use. However, given the uncertainty surrounding model parameters, extensive sensitivity analysis becomes particularly important.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12963-021-00250-7.

Nicotine Dependence in Dual Users of Cigarettes and E-Cigarettes: Common and Distinct Elements

INTRODUCTION

In a sample of dual users of cigarettes and electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS; e-cigarettes), we evaluated psychometric properties of ENDS versions of the Nicotine Dependence Syndrome Scale (NDSS), the brief Wisconsin Inventory of Smoking Dependence Motives (WISDM), and the Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND). Using the NDSS, we tested the hypothesis that there would be one common underlying factor of dependence across the cigarette and ENDS scales and other product-specific factors.

AIMS AND METHODS

Adult dual users (N = 404) completed baseline cigarette and ENDS versions of the NDSS, WISDM, and FTND, and biweekly surveys of their smoking and vaping. Analyses included bifactor modeling, which helps to identify both a general and product-specific factor for each item, and exploratory factor analyses of the combined cigarette and ENDS NDSS items and examinations of concurrent and predictive validity.

RESULTS

The bifactor model was not a good fit, suggesting the lack of one common underlying dependence factor. Factor analyses revealed separate, similar factors for both products, with only one factor (priority) showing overlap of cigarette and ENDS items. ENDS scales significantly predicted ENDS use over time, but not cigarette use. Cigarette scales did not predict ENDS use over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the cigarette and ENDS NDSS versions showed similar factor structure, there was not a primary common underlying factor reflecting drive or tolerance, but rather product-specific factors. The cigarette scales were not valid for predicting ENDS use. These results highlight the importance of separately assessing dependence for cigarettes and ENDS in dual users.

IMPLICATIONS

Although underlying dimensions of nicotine dependence may be similar for ENDS and cigarettes, separate, product-specific measures may be needed to understand differences in product-specific dependency and predict changes in use of each product over time.

A Magic Bullet? The Potential Impact of E-Cigarettes on the Toll of Cigarette Smoking

INTRODUCTION

We examine the proportion of US smoking-produced mortality that e-cigarettes might eliminate under assumptions regarding vaping's ability to increase smoking cessation, vaping's health risks, and the possibility that vaping will increase smoking among young people.

METHODS

We employ a dynamic population simulation model that tracks individuals from ages 0 to 110, differentiated by gender and smoking status. Using data from the US Census, the National Vital Statistics Reports, Cancer Prevention Study II, and the National Health Interview Survey, we estimate the number of smoking-related life-years lost (LYL) from 2018 to 2100 in a no-vaping scenario. We then compare results for model runs that assess the impact of vaping under a variety of assumptions.

RESULTS

The combination of assumptions produces 360 possible scenarios. 357 (99%) yield positive estimates of life-years saved (LYS) due to vaping by 2100, from 143 000 to 65 million. Most scenarios result in millions of individuals quitting smoking due to vaping. On average, vaping-induced quitters gain an extra 1.2-2.0 years of life compared to smokers who quit without vaping. The impact of vaping is greatest when it most helps smokers who otherwise have the greatest difficulty quitting smoking. While the numbers of LYS are generally large across all scenarios, they often represent a small fraction of the toll of smoking.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaping is highly likely to reduce smoking-produced mortality. Still, vaping is not "the" answer to the public health crisis created by smoking. Rather, it may well be a tool to add to the armamentarium of effective tobacco control measures.

IMPLICATIONS

E-cigarettes hold the potential to reduce cigarette smoking's enormous toll. By itself, however, tobacco harm reduction, as embodied in vaping, is no magic bullet. Going forward, tobacco control will require vigilant application of the evidence-based measures that have brought us so much success in combatting smoking. It will require, as well, the search for and adoption of novel means of attacking the remaining problem. Harm reduction can, and many would say should, be a part of the complex formula that will eventually bring about the demise of smoking.

The Ethics of Tobacco Harm Reduction: An Analysis of E-Cigarette Availability From the Perspectives of Utilitarianism, Bioethics, and Public Health Ethics

Much evidence suggests e-cigarettes are substantially less harmful than combustible cigarettes. Assuming this is true, we analyze the ethical case for a policy of e-cigarette availability (ECA) as a tobacco harm reduction strategy. ECA involves making e-cigarettes available to allow smokers to switch to them, and informing smokers of the lower risks of e-cigarettes vis-à-vis smoking. After suggesting that utilitarian/consequentialist considerations do not provide an adequate ethical analysis, we analyze ECA using two other ethical frameworks. First, ECA is supported by a public health ethics framework. ECA is a population-level intervention consistent with respecting individual autonomy by using the least restrictive means to accomplish public health goals, and it supports equity and justice. Second, ECA is supported by four principles that form a biomedical ethics framework. By reducing smokers' health risks and not harming them, ECA fulfills principles of beneficence and non-maleficence. Because ECA allows smokers to make informed health decisions for themselves, it fulfills the principle requiring respect for persons and their autonomy. Here, we consider whether nicotine addiction and thus ECA undermine autonomy, and also discuss the ethical warrant for special protections for youth. Finally, ECA can also advance justice by providing a harm reduction alternative for disadvantaged groups that disproportionately bear the devastating consequences of smoking. Policies of differential taxation of cigarettes and e-cigarettes can facilitate adoption of less harmful alternatives by those economically disadvantaged. We conclude that public health and biomedical ethics frameworks are mutually reinforcing and supportive of ECA as a tobacco harm reduction strategy. Implications: Making e-cigarettes and information about them available is supported as ethical from multiple ethical perspectives.

Rescuing Vapers Versus Rescuing Smokers: The Ethics

Suppose for the sake of argument that wide access to electronic cigarettes would help a great many smokers quit and others avoid smoking, with a dramatic cumulative effect on population health. But suppose also that nowadays, teenagers rarely benefit from that effect, because most do not smoke and are not expected to smoke as adults. Many teenagers do vape. When the net effect of vaping on general public health is expected to remain very positive, should we nevertheless fight vaping, so as to protect teenagers from the direct risks of vaping? For example, what to do if and when certain targeted regulations that would protect teenagers would also, by making it harder to vape, substantially increase smoking in the general population? This situation may be common, and, by pitting the health interests of the general population against those of teenagers, poses an ethical dilemma. This article argues philosophically that if such tradeoffs between the health interests of adolescents and those of the general population exist, morally it is both permissible and preferable to promote the health of the general population.

IMPLICATIONS

In the debate about electronic-cigarette based tobacco harm reduction, some disagreements are factual, for example, disagreements about how harmful vaping is to human lungs, and how much the option of vaping helps smokers quit. However, there is also an ethical debate: if tradeoffs between the health interests of adolescents at risk of vaping and those of the general population (driven by those of smokers) exist, who should be prioritized? This article argues that morally it is sometimes, at least, both permissible and preferable to promote the health of the general population over those of adolescents at risk of vaping.

Limited Aggregation and E-Cigarettes

INTRODUCTION

Nonconsequentialist ethicists have noted that small harms, goods, or claims should not count against large claims. For example, given a choice between saving one life and a large group of people with minor headaches, we ought to save the one life, no matter how large the group is. This principle has been called limited aggregation. The principle of limited aggregation might have implications on public health policy, given that public health policy involves weighing the claims of individuals against one another.

AIMS AND METHODS

I aim to show that limited aggregation has implications for policies on e-cigarettes and alternative nicotine delivery systems. The methodology used in this study involves critical analysis of existing literature and pre-theoretical moral views.

RESULTS

This study does not use empirical research.

CONCLUSIONS

In deciding to allow or encourage the use of e-cigarettes or alternative nicotine delivery systems, we sometimes must weigh benefits to each existing smoker affected by the policy against risks to each nonsmoker affected. I argue in this paper that when these risks, to each individual nonsmoker, are sufficiently small, we ought not to count them against more significant benefits to smokers. This applies even when the number of nonsmokers affected by a policy exceeds the number of smokers.

IMPLICATIONS

This paper implies that policymakers ought to be sensitive to the scale of benefits or risks introduced by a policy on individuals. If the negative side effects, on each affected individual, of a proposed policy are sufficiently small, they do not count against the beneficial goals of that policy. Depending on the expected effects of each given e-cigarette policy, this may give policymakers defeasible reasons to prioritize the needs of current smokers, who may each gain a lot from various means of smoking cessation, over nonsmokers, who each may only have a small chance of picking up smoking.

E-cigarettes: The Long-Term Liberal Perspective

The debate for and against making e-cigarettes available to smokers is to a large extent empirical. We do not know the long-term health effects of vaping and we do not know how smokers will respond to e-cigarettes over time. In addition to these empirical uncertainties, however, there are difficult moral issues to consider. One such issue is that many smokers in some sense choose to smoke. Though smoking is addictive and though many start young, it does not seem impossible to plan for and implement cessation. Yet many choose not to do so and we arguably have some reason to respect this choice. I propose that liberal opposition to strict tobacco control, based on respect for choice, is mitigated when e-cigarettes are available, since they are such a close substitute. Making e-cigarettes available to smokers might therefore not only enable switching in practice, but may make tougher tobacco control more justified. Another moral issue is that making e-cigarettes widely available might induce many people to vape, who would otherwise have neither vaped nor smoked. If this is so, the price of using e-cigarettes to accelerate smoking cessation may be a long-term vaping epidemic. Since vaping is less harmful than smoking, both individuals and society will have less reason to end this epidemic and so it may endure longer than the smoking epidemic would otherwise have done. This raises further questions around the weighing of reduced harm to current smokers against increased harm to future vapers. Implications: Because they are a close substitute, e-cigarettes makes tougher tobacco control more morally and politically feasible. Because e-cigarettes are less harmful than combustibles, making them available may accelerate smoking cessation but also lead to a long-term vaping epidemic, as we have less reason to combat vaping, once established. Moral evaluation of this possible scenario requires considering at least three things: (1) the cost of addiction to autonomy, in addition to health effects, (2) possible distributional effects due to differences between current smokers and future vapers, and (3) the fact that a possible vaping epidemic affects mainly future people and future society.

Substance Use among Exclusive Electronic Cigarette Users and Dual Combustible Cigarette Users: Extending Work to Adult Users

BACKGROUND

Electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) have become increasingly popular in recent years. Existing evidence indicates e-cigarettes used in isolation are less harmful than combustible cigarettes, yet emerging work has demonstrated that adults use e-cigarettes largely in combination with combustible cigarettes (i.e. dual use). Despite this data, little is understood about how exclusive and dual e-cigarette users may differ across behavioral outcomes, such as substance use dependence and behaviors among adults.

OBJECTIVES

Thus, the current project examined differences in e-cigarette dependence, problematic alcohol use, cannabis use, and nonmedical prescription opioid use (e.g. methadone and oxycodone) across both exclusive and dual e-cigarette adult users.

RESULTS

Participants included 531 (53.6% female; M_age = 35.29 years, SD = 10.44) adults with past-month e-cigarette use. Dual users reported greater e-cigarette dependence, alcohol use, current cannabis use, and endorsement of nonprescription opioid use. Conclusions/Importance: Importantly, this work suggests that adults who use both combustible and e-cigarettes may constitute a group more vulnerable to experiencing problematic substance use and more severe e-cigarette dependence than exclusive e-cigarette users.

Response to Flavored Cartridge/Pod-Based Product Ban among Adult JUUL Users: "You Get Nicotine However You Can Get It"

In order to curb increasing youth electronic cigarette (e-cig) use, the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) banned the sale of flavored cartridge/pod-based products in February 2020. This mixed-methods study aimed to evaluate the impact of the FDA ban on adult JUUL users. The samples of current adult JUUL users were surveyed via Amazon Mechanical Turk at three time-points n = 76 (Sample 1); n = 128 (Sample 2); n = 86 (Sample 3) before and after the FDA flavored/pod ban. The participants were asked to report the JUUL flavored pod used most often and answer questions on purchasing generic pods or refilling (Quantitative). JUUL users were then interviewed in order to explore their perceptions and behaviors related to the FDA ban of flavored cartridge/pod-based products (Qualitative; n = 16). Quantitative data analysis evaluated the differences in variables by time-point. Qualitative data were coded into themes while using the constant comparative method. We found a significant decrease in the use of mint pods (43.4%, 22.7%, 16.3%) (p < 0.01), while there was a significant increase in the use of menthol pods (6.6%, 26.6%, 37.2%) (p < 0.01). Themes that emerged from the qualitative data included switching from mint to menthol pods, refilling pods, and switching to other products that are available in the desired flavors, such as generic pods or disposable e-cigs. Future research is needed in order to evaluate the impact of these behaviors on public health.

[Where there´s smoke - there´s no fire? - Burns from E-Cigarette explosions]

INTRODUCTION

The popularity of E-Cigarettes is increasing. Besides addiction and pulmonary health damage, reports of burn injuries from e-cigarette explosions are also increasing. Mostly, explosions of e-cigarettes are attributed to its lithium-ion battery. Due to increasing cases and missing guidelines we want to present three cases of our hospital and publish recommendations for the management of burn injuries caused by e-cigarette explosions.

PATIENTS/MATERIAL AND METHODS

Three cases of e-cigarette explosions which occurred between 2016 and 2019, are presented.

RESULTS

All three e-cigarette explosions occurred in the trouser pockets. Two patients were male one patient was female. The age ranged from 24 to 64 years, the burned total body surface area (TBSA) from 3 % to 12.5 %. All three patients required skin grafting and the length of stay in hospital ranged from five to eleven days.

CONCLUSION

In the synopsis of recent literature, we recommend the following management of burns due to e-cigarette explosions. The guidelines of the Advanced Trauma Life Support should be followed, signs of an inhalation trauma should be checked and litmus test should be performed prior to irrigation with aqueous solutions to prevent exothermic reactions with remaining metals. If litmus test shows alkali pH wounds should be irrigated by mineral oil.

Use of Electronic Cigarettes to Aid Long-Term Smoking Cessation in the United States: Prospective Evidence From the PATH Cohort Study

Electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) are the preferred smoking-cessation aid in the United States; however, there is little evidence regarding long-term effectiveness among those who use them. We used the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study to compare long-term abstinence between matched US smokers who tried to quit with and without use of e-cigarettes as a cessation aid. We identified a nationally representative cohort of 2,535 adult US smokers in 2014-2015 (baseline assessment), who, in 2015-2016 (exposure assessment), reported a past-year attempt to quit and the cessation aids used, and reported smoking status in 2016-2017 (outcome assessment; self-reported ≥12 months continuous abstinence). We used propensity-score methods to match each e-cigarette user with similar nonusers. Among US smokers who used e-cigarettes to help quit, 12.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 9.1%, 16.7%) successfully attained long-term abstinence. However, there was no difference compared with matched non-e-cigarette users (cigarette abstinence difference: 2%; 95% CI: -3%, 7%). Furthermore, fewer e-cigarette users were abstinent from nicotine products in the long term (nicotine abstinence difference: -4%; 95% CI: -7%, -1%); approximately two-thirds of e-cigarette users who successfully quit smoking continued to use e-cigarettes. These results suggest e-cigarettes may not be an effective cessation aid for adult smokers and, instead, may contribute to continuing nicotine dependence.

Whole body electronic cigarette exposure system for efficient evaluation of diverse inhalation conditions and products

Objectives: To develop and test a new system for whole body exposure of small animals to support investigation of the biological effects of aerosol generated by electronic cigarette (e-cig) products under diverse inhalation conditions with improved control and monitoring of the e-cig vape exposure and nicotine delivered to the animal's systemic circulation. Methods: A computer-controlled design, with built-in sensors for real time monitoring of O₂, CO₂, relative humidity, and temperature within the exposure chambers and port for measuring total particulate matter (TPM) was developed, constructed and tested. This design accommodates a variety of commercial vaping devices, offers software flexibility to adjust exposure protocols to mimic different users' puffing patterns, enables variable nicotine delivery to the animal's systemic circulation; minimizes travel time and alterations of aerosol quality or quantity by delivering aerosol directly to the exposure chamber, offers local or remote operation of up to six distinct exposure chambers from a single control unit, and can simultaneously test different exposure conditions or products in diverse animal groups, which reduces inter-run variability, saves time, and increases productivity. Results: The time course pattern of TPM concentration during different phases of the exposure cycle was measured. With increased puffing duration or number of exposure cycles, higher TPM exposure and plasma cotinine levels were observed with plasma cotinine levels in the range reported in light or heavy smokers. Conclusion: Overall, this novel, versatile, and durable exposure system facilitates high-throughput evaluation of the relative safety and potential toxicity of a variety of e-cig devices and liquids.

Electronic Cigarette Use and Cigarette Abstinence Over 2 Years Among U.S. Smokers in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study

INTRODUCTION

Electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) could benefit public health if they help current smokers to stop smoking long term, but evidence that they do so is limited. We aimed to determine the association between e-cigarette use and subsequent smoking cessation in a nationally representative cohort of US smokers followed for 2 years.

METHODS

We analyzed data from adult cigarette smokers in Waves 1 through 3 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study. The primary exposure was e-cigarette use at Wave 1. The primary outcome was prolonged cigarette abstinence, defined as past 30-day cigarette abstinence at Waves 2 and 3 (1- and 2-year follow-up).

RESULTS

Among Wave 1 cigarette smokers, 3.6% were current daily e-cigarette users, 18% were current non-daily e-cigarette users, and 78% reported no current e-cigarette use. In multivariable-adjusted analyses, daily e-cigarette use at Wave 1 was associated with higher odds of prolonged cigarette smoking abstinence at Waves 2 and 3 compared to nonuse of e-cigarettes (11% vs. 6%, adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.77, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.08 to 2.89). Non-daily e-cigarette use was not associated with prolonged cigarette smoking abstinence. Among Wave 1 daily e-cigarette users who were abstinent from cigarette smoking at Wave 3, 63% were using e-cigarettes at Wave 3.

CONCLUSIONS

In this longitudinal cohort study of US adult cigarette smokers, daily but not non-daily e-cigarette use was associated with higher odds of prolonged cigarette smoking abstinence over 2 years, compared to no e-cigarette use. Daily use of e-cigarettes may help some smokers to stop smoking combustible cigarettes.

IMPLICATIONS

In this nationally representative longitudinal cohort study of US adult cigarette smokers, daily e-cigarette use, compared to no e-cigarette use, was associated with a 77% increased odds of prolonged cigarette smoking abstinence over the subsequent 2 years. Regular use of e-cigarettes may help some smokers to stop smoking combustible cigarettes.

Electronic cigarettes: A position statement from the Thoracic Society of Australia and New Zealand

The TSANZ develops position statements where insufficient data exist to write formal clinical guidelines. In 2018, the TSANZ addressed the question of potential benefits and health impacts of electronic cigarettes (EC). The working party included groups focused on health impacts, smoking cessation, youth issues and priority populations. The 2018 report on the Public Health Consequences of E-Cigarettes from the United States NASEM was accepted as reflective of evidence to mid-2017. A search for papers subsequently published in peer-reviewed journals was conducted in August 2018. A small number of robust and important papers published until March 2019 were also identified and included. Groups identified studies that extended, modified or contradicted the NASEM report. A total of 3793 papers were identified and reviewed, with summaries and draft position statements developed and presented to TSANZ membership in April 2019. After feedback from members and external reviewers, a collection of position statements was finalized in December 2019. EC have adverse lung effects and harmful effects of long-term use are unknown. EC are unsuitable consumer products for recreational use, part-substitution for smoking or long-term exclusive use by former smokers. Smokers who require support to quit smoking should be directed towards approved medication in conjunction with behavioural support as having the strongest evidence for efficacy and safety. No specific EC product can be recommended as effective and safe for smoking cessation. Smoking cessation claims in relation to EC should be assessed by established regulators.

Cessation outcomes in adult dual users of e-cigarettes and cigarettes: the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health cohort study, USA, 2013-2016

OBJECTIVES

We examined the transitions of adult dual e-cigarette/cigarette users in the USA in relation to nicotine dependence (ND) symptoms, interest in quitting, and history of cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS

We used the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study Waves 1 and 3 (2013-2016) in a longitudinal analysis of adults (≥ 18 years). Dual past-month users of e-cigarettes/cigarettes were identified from Wave 1 and followed for tobacco use transitions 2 years later (Wave 3).

RESULTS

Among 1870 adult dual users at Wave 1, 25.7% (95% CI 23.5-28.2) were dual users 2 years later, 12.1% (95% CI 10.6-13.7) reported no past-month tobacco use, 7.0% (95% CI 5.6-8.9) e-cigarette mono-use, and 55.2% (95% CI 52.4-58.0) cigarette mono-use. In the regression analysis, greater ND severity was associated with decreased relative risk of no past-month tobacco use (RRR 0.29; 95% CI 0.12-0.71). Interest in quitting and CVD factors were not associated with no past-month tobacco or e-cigarette mono-use.

CONCLUSIONS

Dual users who are nicotine dependent are less likely to transition to cessation. To quit cigarette use, other cessation resources may be necessary to support the needs of cigarette smokers who use e-cigarettes, particularly those at risk of continuing cigarette smoking or those with smoking-related illnesses.

The impact of cigarette and e-cigarette use history on transition patterns: a longitudinal analysis of the population assessment of tobacco and health (PATH) study, 2013-2015

BACKGROUND

Population models have been developed to evaluate the impact of new tobacco products on the overall population. Reliable input parameters such as longitudinal tobacco use transitions are needed to quantify the net population health impact including the number of premature deaths prevented, additional life years, and changes in cigarette smoking prevalence.

METHODS

This secondary analysis assessed transition patterns from PATH wave 1 (2013-14) to wave 2 (2014-15) among adult exclusive cigarette smokers, exclusive e-cigarette users, and dual users. Transition probabilities were calculated by taking into account factors including cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use histories and experimental or established use behaviors. Multinomial logistic regression models were constructed to further evaluate factors associated with transition patterns.

RESULTS

Differential transition probabilities emerged among study subgroups when taking into account cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use histories and experimental or established use behaviors. For example, overall 45% of exclusive e-cigarette users in wave 1 continued using e-cigarettes exclusively in wave 2. However, we observed approximately 11 to 14% of wave 1 exclusive experimental e-cigarette users continued to use e-cigarette exclusively in wave 2, compared to about 62% of exclusive established e-cigarette users. The history of cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use is another important factor associated with transition patterns. Among experimental e-cigarette users, 7.5% of individuals without a history of cigarette smoking transitioned to exclusive cigarette smoking, compared to 30% of individuals with a history of cigarette smoking. Additionally, 1.3% of exclusive cigarette smokers in wave 1 transitioned to exclusive e-cigarette use, with the highest transition probability (3.7%) observed in the established cigarette smoker with a history of e-cigarette use subgroup.

CONCLUSIONS

Product use histories and current use behaviors are important factors influencing transitions between product use states. Given that experimental users' transition behaviors may be more variable and more influenced by tobacco use history, long-term predictions made by population models could be improved by the use of transition probabilities from established users. As transition patterns might be changing over time, long-term transition patterns can be examined through analysis of future waves of PATH data.

Simulating future public health benefits of tobacco control interventions: a systematic review of models

BACKGROUND

To prioritise tobacco control interventions, simulating their health impacts is valuable. We undertook a systematic review of tobacco intervention simulation models to assess model structure and input variations that may render model outputs non-comparable.

METHODS

We applied a Medline search with keywords intersecting modelling and tobacco. Papers were limited to those modelling health outputs (eg, mortality, health-adjusted life years), and at least two of cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Data were extracted for each simulation model with ≥3 arising papers, including: model type, untimed or with time steps and trends in business-as-usual (BAU) tobacco prevalence and epidemiology.

RESULTS

Of 1911 papers, 186 met the inclusion criteria, including 13 eligible simulation models. The SimSmoke model had the largest number of publications (n=46), followed by Benefits of Smoking Cessation on Outcomes (n=12) and Tobacco Policy Model (n=10). Two of 13 models only estimated deaths averted, 1 had no time steps, 5 had no future trends in BAU tobacco prevalence, 9 had no future trends in BAU disease epidemiology and 7 had no time lags from quitting tobacco to reversal of health harm.

CONCLUSIONS

Considerable heterogeneity exists in simulation models, making outputs substantively non-comparable between models. Ranking of interventions by one model may be valid. However, this may not be true if, for example, interventions that differentially affect age groups (eg, a tobacco-free generation policy vs increased cessation among adults) do not account for plausible future trends. Greater standardisation of model structures and outputs will allow comparison across models and countries, and for comparisons of the impact of tobacco control interventions with other preventive interventions.

How much of the future mortality toll of smoking can be avoided?

OBJECTIVE

To determine how much future smoking-related mortality in the USA can be prevented, recognising that some of that future mortality results from past smoking.

METHODS

Employing a dynamic population simulation model, we estimate smoking's expected mortality burden in the USA, measured as life-years lost (LYL), in a status-quo scenario run from 2018 through 2100. We then estimate LYL attributable to past smoking assuming that all smoking ceases at the end of 2017. We calculate the potential avoidable LYL, which we call the maximum potential reduction in premature mortality (MPRPM), as the difference between the two. We use data from the US Census Bureau, National Vital Statistics Reports, the National Health Interview Survey and Cancer Prevention Study II.

RESULTS

Under status-quo assumptions, smoking will claim 305 million LYL in the US from 2018 to 2100. If all smoking ceased at the end of 2017, past smoking would be responsible for 191.8 million LYL. Thus, avoidable LYL by 2100-the MPRPM-would be 113.2 million, 37% of the expected toll of smoking. A sensitivity analysis finds that were the annual smoking initiation rate 3% instead of 7.8%, the MPRPM would be 13-14% lower. Were the annual permanent smoking cessation rate twice our status-quo estimate of 4.35%, the MPRPM would be 38-39% lower.

CONCLUSIONS

Public health can address only the future toll of future smoking. Smoking's MPRPM is the reduction in the mortality burden of smoking that tobacco control can strive to achieve.