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Althoff KN, Stewart C, Humes E, Gerace L, Boyd C, Gebo K, Justice AC, Hyle EP, Coburn SB, Lang R, Silverberg MJ, Horberg MA, Lima VD, Gill MJ, Karris M, Rebeiro PF, Thorne J, Rich AJ, Crane H, Kitahata M, Rubtsova A, Wong C, Leng S, Marconi VC, D’Souza G, Kim HN, Napravnik S, McGinnis K, Kirk GD, Sterling TR, Moore RD, Kasaie P. The forecasted prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in people with HIV in the United States through the year 2030: A modeling study. PLoS Med 2024; 21:e1004325. [PMID: 38215160 PMCID: PMC10833859 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004325] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2022] [Revised: 02/01/2024] [Accepted: 11/22/2023] [Indexed: 01/14/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Estimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs. The objective of our study was to forecast the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States (US) through 2030. METHODS AND FINDINGS Using the PEARL model-an agent-based simulation of PWH who have initiated ART in the US-the prevalence of anxiety, depression, stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, end-stage liver disease (ESLD), myocardial infarction (MI), and multimorbidity (≥2 mental or physical comorbidities, other than HIV) were forecasted through 2030. Simulations were informed by the US CDC HIV surveillance data of new HIV diagnosis and the longitudinal North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) data on risk of comorbidities from 2009 to 2017. The simulated population represented 15 subgroups of PWH including Hispanic, non-Hispanic White (White), and non-Hispanic Black/African American (Black/AA) men who have sex with men (MSM), men and women with history of injection drug use and heterosexual men and women. Simulations were replicated for 200 runs and forecasted outcomes are presented as median values (95% uncertainty ranges are presented in the Supporting information). In 2020, PEARL forecasted a median population of 670,000 individuals receiving ART in the US, of whom 9% men and 4% women with history of injection drug use, 60% MSM, 8% heterosexual men, and 19% heterosexual women. Additionally, 44% were Black/AA, 32% White, and 23% Hispanic. Along with a gradual rise in population size of PWH receiving ART-reaching 908,000 individuals by 2030-PEARL forecasted a surge in prevalence of most comorbidities to 2030. Depression and/or anxiety was high and increased from 60% in 2020 to 64% in 2030. Hypertension decreased while dyslipidemia, diabetes, CKD, and MI increased. There was little change in prevalence of cancer and ESLD. The forecasted multimorbidity among PWH receiving ART increased from 63% in 2020 to 70% in 2030. There was heterogeneity in trends across subgroups. Among Black women with history of injection drug use in 2030 (oldest demographic subgroup with median age of 66 year), dyslipidemia, CKD, hypertension, diabetes, anxiety, and depression were most prevalent, with 92% experiencing multimorbidity. Among Black MSM in 2030 (youngest demographic subgroup with median age of 42 year), depression and CKD were highly prevalent, with 57% experiencing multimorbidity. These results are limited by the assumption that trends in new HIV diagnoses, mortality, and comorbidity risk observed in 2009 to 2017 will persist through 2030; influences occurring outside this period are not accounted for in the forecasts. CONCLUSIONS The PEARL forecasts suggest a continued rise in comorbidity and multimorbidity prevalence to 2030, marked by heterogeneities across race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk subgroups. HIV clinicians must stay current on the ever-changing comorbidities-specific guidelines to provide guideline-recommended care. HIV clinical directors should ensure linkages to subspecialty care within the clinic or by referral. HIV policy decision-makers must allocate resources and support extended clinical capacity to meet the healthcare needs of people aging with HIV.
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Affiliation(s)
- Keri N. Althoff
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Cameron Stewart
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Elizabeth Humes
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Lucas Gerace
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Cynthia Boyd
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
- Division of Geriatric Medicine and Gerontology, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Kelly Gebo
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Amy C. Justice
- Yale Schools of Medicine and Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
- Veterans Affairs Connecticut Healthcare System, West Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
| | - Emily P. Hyle
- Harvard Medical School and the Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
- Harvard University Center for AIDS Research, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Sally B. Coburn
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Raynell Lang
- Department of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Canada
| | - Michael J. Silverberg
- Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, California, USA and Department of Health Systems Science, Kaiser Permanente Bernard J. Tyson School of Medicine, Pasadena, California, United States of America
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States of America
| | - Michael A. Horberg
- Mid-Atlantic Permanente Research Institute, Kaiser Permanente Mid-Atlantic Permanente Medical Group, Rockville, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Viviane D. Lima
- Epidemiology and Population Health Program, British Columbia Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Vancouver, Canada
| | - M. John Gill
- Department of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Canada
| | - Maile Karris
- Department of Medicine, University of California San Diego, San Diego, California, United States of America
| | - Peter F. Rebeiro
- Departments of Medicine and Biostatistics, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, Tennessee, United States of America
| | - Jennifer Thorne
- Department of Ophthalmology, Wilmer Eye Institute, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Ashleigh J. Rich
- Department of Social Medicine, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Heidi Crane
- Division of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Departments of Medicine and Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Mari Kitahata
- Division of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Departments of Medicine and Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Anna Rubtsova
- Department of Behavioral, Social, and Health Education Sciences, Emory University Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Cherise Wong
- Division of Worldwide Research and Development, Pfizer Inc., New York City, New York, United States of America
| | - Sean Leng
- Division of Geriatric Medicine and Gerontology, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Vincent C. Marconi
- Division of Infectious Disease, Emory School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
- Atlanta Veterans Affairs Health Care System, Decatur, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Gypsyamber D’Souza
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Hyang Nina Kim
- Division of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Departments of Medicine and Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Sonia Napravnik
- Department of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Kathleen McGinnis
- Veterans Affairs Connecticut Healthcare System, West Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
| | - Gregory D. Kirk
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Timothy R. Sterling
- Vanderbilt Tuberculosis Center, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, Tennessee, United States of America
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, Tennessee, United States of America
| | - Richard D. Moore
- Division of General Internal Medicine, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Parastu Kasaie
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
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Flickinger TE, Campbell BR, Timm A, Baee S, Datta D, Shenoi SV, Rozanova J, Dillingham R. Use of a Mobile Health Intervention by Older Versus Younger People with HIV: Analysis of Usage, Social Support, and Network Interactions. TELEMEDICINE REPORTS 2022; 3:191-200. [PMID: 36636167 PMCID: PMC9811827 DOI: 10.1089/tmr.2022.0035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/22/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND People with HIV in the United States are aging, with risk for negative health outcomes from social isolation. PositiveLinks is a mobile health (mHealth) intervention that includes an anonymous Community Message Board (CMB) for peer-to-peer conversations. We investigated differences in CMB usage and social support between younger (<50 years) and older (≥50) members. METHODS We assessed the relationship between age groups and app use using chi-square tests. CMB posts were analyzed qualitatively to categorize forms of social support. To have a visual understanding of this relationship, we created a network diagram to display interactions among PL members. RESULTS Among 87 participants, 31 (42.5%) were in the older age group. Older members launched the app more often at 6 months (445.5 vs. 240.5 mean launches per participant, p ≤ 0.001) and 12 months (712.3 vs. 292.6 launches, p ≤ 0.001) compared with younger members. Older members also demonstrated more CMB posts at 6 months (47.4 vs. 7.6 mean posts per participant, p = 0.02) and 12 months (77.5 vs. 10.6 posts, p = 0.04). Of 1861 CMB posts, 7% sought support and 72% provided support. In addition, the network visualization showed that four participants, who were in the older age group, had more post generation than others and most of their posts provided support. CONCLUSIONS Older PL members demonstrated significantly more app use than younger members, including CMB posts for social support. This durable app engagement indicates that mHealth can enable social connection among people living with chronic disease across the lifespan.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tabor E. Flickinger
- Department of Medicine, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA
| | - Breanna R. Campbell
- Department of Medicine, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA
| | - Allyson Timm
- School of Medicine, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA
| | - Sonia Baee
- School of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA
| | - Debajyoti Datta
- School of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA
| | - Sheela V. Shenoi
- Department of Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
| | - Julia Rozanova
- Department of Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
| | - Rebecca Dillingham
- Department of Medicine, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA
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