The collapse of infectious disease diagnoses commonly due to communicable respiratory pathogens during the COVID-19 pandemic: A time series and hierarchical clustering analysis

Mailed feedback to primary care physicians on antibiotic prescribing for patients aged 65 years and older: pragmatic, factorial randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate whether providing family physicians with feedback on their antibiotic prescribing compared with that of their peers reduces antibiotic prescriptions. To also identify effects on antibiotic prescribing from case-mix adjusted feedback reports and messages emphasising antibiotic associated harms.

DESIGN

Pragmatic, factorial randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

Primary care physicians in Ontario, Canada PARTICIPANTS: All primary care physicians were randomly assigned a group if they were eligible and actively prescribing antibiotics to patients 65 years or older. Physicians were excluded if had already volunteered to receive antibiotic prescribing feedback from another agency, or had opted out of the trial.

INTERVENTION

A letter was mailed in January 2022 to physicians with peer comparison antibiotic prescribing feedback compared with the control group who did not receive a letter (4:1 allocation). The intervention group was further randomised in a 2x2 factorial trial to evaluate case-mix adjusted versus unadjusted comparators, and emphasis, or not, on harms of antibiotics.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Antibiotic prescribing rate per 1000 patient visits for patients 65 years or older six months after intervention. Analysis was in the modified intention-to-treat population using Poisson regression.

RESULTS

5046 physicians were included and analysed: 1005 in control group and 4041 in intervention group (1016 case-mix adjusted data and harms messaging, 1006 with case-mix adjusted data and no harms messaging, 1006 unadjusted data and harms messaging, and 1013 unadjusted data and no harms messaging). At six months, mean antibiotic prescribing rate was 59.4 (standard deviation 42.0) in the control group and 56.0 (39.2) in the intervention group (relative rate 0.95 (95% confidence interval 0.94 to 0.96). Unnecessary antibiotic prescribing (0.89 (0.86 to 0.92)), prolonged duration prescriptions defined as more than seven days (0.85 (0.83 to 0.87)), and broad spectrum prescribing (0.94 (0.92 to 0.95)) were also significantly lower in the intervention group compared with the control group. Results were consistent at 12 months post intervention. No significant effect was seen for including emphasis on harms messaging. A small increase in antibiotic prescribing with case-mix adjusted reports was noted (1.01 (1.00 to 1.03)).

CONCLUSIONS

Peer comparison audit and feedback letters significantly reduced overall antibiotic prescribing with no benefit of case-mix adjustment or harms messaging. Antibiotic prescribing audit and feedback is a scalable and effective intervention and should be a routine quality improvement initiative in primary care.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04594200.

Epidemiological shifts in bronchiolitis patterns and impact of the COVID-19: A two-season comparative study

BACKGROUND

Bronchiolitis is a common lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) affecting infants and young children. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) has historically been the primary causative agent, but other viruses also contribute to the LRTI epidemiology. Recent changes in epidemiology and clinical patterns due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have raised concerns. This study aims to analyze the impact of the pandemic on bronchiolitis epidemiology and severity.

METHODS

Two consecutive bronchiolitis seasons (October 2021 to March 2022 and October 2022 to March 2023) were compared. Data on viral agents, hospitalization duration, clinical severity, and respiratory support requirements were collected from pediatric patients at San Marco Hospital, University of Catania.

RESULTS

In the 2021-2022 season, RSV was the predominant virus (40%), followed by other viruses, with mild clinical outcomes. In the 2022-2023 season, RSV remained prevalent (58.7%), but other viruses, including rhinovirus (RV) and influenza, showed a significant increase (p < .05) in bronchiolitis cases and severity. Notably, RSV-related bronchiolitis did not exhibit greater severity compared to non-RSV cases in the 2022-2023 season, contrary to the previous year.

CONCLUSION

The COVID-19 pandemic appears to have shifted the epidemiological landscape of bronchiolitis, with a peak incidence in November instead of January/February. Non-RSV viruses (RV, influenza A and B, as well as metapneumovirus) have gained prominence, possibly due to viral competition and reduced pandemic-related restrictions. Traditionally, RSV has been the primary pathogen responsible for most bronchiolitis cases. Nonetheless, the findings of this study indicate a shifting landscape in bronchiolitis etiology, with RSV gradually diminishing in its role. Contrary to the previous year, RSV-related bronchiolitis did not exhibit greater severity compared to non-RSV cases in the 2022-2023 season.

Impact of childhood 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction on adult pneumonia hospitalisations in Mongolia: a time series analysis

Background

Few studies have assessed the potential indirect effects of childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) programs on the adult pneumonia burden in resource-limited settings. We evaluated the impact of childhood PCV13 immunisation on adult all-cause pneumonia following a phased program introduction from 2016.

Methods

We conducted a time-series analysis to assess changes in pneumonia hospitalisation incidence at four district hospitals in Mongolia. Adults (≥18 years) that met the clinical case definition for all-cause pneumonia were enrolled. A negative binomial mixed-effects model was used to assess the impact of PCV13 introduction on monthly counts of pneumonia admissions from January 2015-February 2022. We also performed a restricted analysis excluding the COVID-19 pandemic period. All models were stratified by age and assessed separately. Additional analyses assessed the robustness of our findings.

Findings

The average annual incidence of all-cause pneumonia hospitalisation was highest in adults 65+ years (62.81 per 10,000 population) and declined with decreasing age. After adjusting for the COVID-19 pandemic period, we found that rates of pneumonia hospitalisation remained largely unchanged over time. We did not observe a reduction in pneumonia hospitalisation in any age group. Results from restricted and sensitivity analyses were comparable to the primary results, finding limited evidence of a reduced pneumonia burden.

Interpretation

We did not find evidence of indirect protection against all-cause pneumonia in adults following childhood PCV13 introduction. Direct pneumococcal vaccination and other interventions should be considered to reduce burden of pneumonia among older adults.

Funding

Pfizer clinical research collaboration agreement (contract number: WI236621).

Variability in changes in physician outpatient antibiotic prescribing from 2019 to 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario, Canada

Objective

To evaluate inter-physician variability and predictors of changes in antibiotic prescribing before (2019) and during (2020/2021) the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of physicians in Ontario, Canada prescribing oral antibiotics in the outpatient setting between January 1, 2019 and December 31, 2021 using the IQVIA Xponent data set. The primary outcome was the change in the number of antibiotic prescriptions between the prepandemic and pandemic period. Secondary outcomes were changes in the selection of broad-spectrum agents and long-duration (>7 d) antibiotic use. We used multivariable linear regression models to evaluate predictors of change.

Results

There were 17,288 physicians included in the study with substantial inter-physician variability in changes in antibiotic prescribing (median change of -43.5 antibiotics per physician, interquartile range -136.5 to -5.0). In the multivariable model, later career stage (adjusted mean difference [aMD] -45.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] -52.9 to -37.8, p < .001), family medicine (aMD -46.0, 95% CI -62.5 to -29.4, p < .001), male patient sex (aMD -52.4, 95% CI -71.1 to -33.7, p < .001), low patient comorbidity (aMD -42.5, 95% CI -50.3 to -34.8, p < .001), and high prescribing to new patients (aMD -216.5, 95% CI -223.5 to -209.5, p < .001) were associated with decreases in antibiotic initiation. Family medicine and high prescribing to new patients were associated with a decrease in selection of broad-spectrum agents and prolonged antibiotic use.

Conclusions

Antibiotic prescribing changed throughout the COVID-19 pandemic with overall decreases in antibiotic initiation, broad-spectrum agents, and prolonged antibiotic courses with inter-physician variability. These findings present opportunities for community antibiotic stewardship interventions.

Comparative Analysis of Pediatric Hospitalizations during Two Consecutive Influenza and Respiratory Virus Seasons Post-Pandemic

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the epidemiology of respiratory viruses. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) led to a dramatic reduction in respiratory infections. However, the long-term effects on respiratory virus epidemiology remain unclear.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a comparative study on hospitalized pediatric patients with respiratory illness during two seasons: 1 October 2021 to 15 March 2022 and 1 October 2022 to 15 March 2023. We compared the type of virus, mean duration of hospitalization, and disease severity.

RESULTS

In the first season, 47.1% of patients (65/138) tested positive for at least one respiratory virus, with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) being the most frequent (23.2%). In the second season, 82.9% of patients (102/123) tested positive, with RSV and Rhinovirus being the most prevalent (28.38% and 27.03%, respectively). Other viruses, such as Influenza A/B, Metapneumovirus, and Adenovirus, also showed increased prevalence. Disease severity and mean duration of hospitalization were similar between the two seasons.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights increased prevalence in respiratory viruses, including RSV and Rhinovirus, following the easing of NPIs. The prevalence in respiratory viruses, including RSV and Rhinovirus, increased in the second season compared to the first one. Interestingly, RSV's peak incidence shifted from February to November. The emergence of rhinovirus as the most prevalent respiratory virus during certain months suggests viral competition and dynamic changes in viral circulation. The overall severity of respiratory infections remained relatively stable between the seasons.

A Time Series Analysis Evaluating Antibiotic Prescription Rates in Long-Term Care during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Alberta and Ontario, Canada

The COVID-19 pandemic affected access to care, and the associated public health measures influenced the transmission of other infectious diseases. The pandemic has dramatically changed antibiotic prescribing in the community. We aimed to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting control measures on oral antibiotic prescribing in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) in Alberta and Ontario, Canada using linked administrative data. Antibiotic prescription data were collected for LTCF residents 65 years and older in Alberta and Ontario from 1 January 2017 until 31 December 2020. Weekly prescription rates per 1000 residents, stratified by age, sex, antibiotic class, and selected individual agents, were calculated. Interrupted time series analyses using SARIMA models were performed to test for changes in antibiotic prescription rates after the start of the pandemic (1 March 2020). The average annual cohort size was 18,489 for Alberta and 96,614 for Ontario. A significant decrease in overall weekly prescription rates after the start of the pandemic compared to pre-pandemic was found in Alberta, but not in Ontario. Furthermore, a significant decrease in prescription rates was observed for antibiotics mainly used to treat respiratory tract infections: amoxicillin in both provinces (Alberta: −0.6 per 1000 LTCF residents decrease in weekly prescription rate, p = 0.006; Ontario: −0.8, p < 0.001); and doxycycline (−0.2, p = 0.005) and penicillin (−0.04, p = 0.014) in Ontario. In Ontario, azithromycin was prescribed at a significantly higher rate after the start of the pandemic (0.7 per 1000 LTCF residents increase in weekly prescription rate, p = 0.011). A decrease in prescription rates for antibiotics that are largely used to treat respiratory tract infections is in keeping with the lower observed rates for respiratory infections resulting from pandemic control measures. The results should be considered in the contexts of different LTCF systems and provincial public health responses to the pandemic.