Mortality trends in a cohort of homosexual men in New York City, 1978-1988

1970s and 'Patient 0' HIV-1 genomes illuminate early HIV/AIDS history in North America

The emergence of HIV-1 group M subtype B in North American men who have sex with men was a key turning point in the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Phylogenetic studies have suggested cryptic subtype B circulation in the United States (US) throughout the 1970s and an even older presence in the Caribbean. However, these temporal and geographical inferences, based upon partial HIV-1 genomes that postdate the recognition of AIDS in 1981, remain contentious and the earliest movements of the virus within the US are unknown. We serologically screened >2,000 1970s serum samples and developed a highly sensitive approach for recovering viral RNA from degraded archival samples. Here, we report eight coding-complete genomes from US serum samples from 1978-1979-eight of the nine oldest HIV-1 group M genomes to date. This early, full-genome 'snapshot' reveals that the US HIV-1 epidemic exhibited extensive genetic diversity in the 1970s but also provides strong evidence for its emergence from a pre-existing Caribbean epidemic. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses estimate the jump to the US at around 1970 and place the ancestral US virus in New York City with 0.99 posterior probability support, strongly suggesting this was the crucial hub of early US HIV/AIDS diversification. Logistic growth coalescent models reveal epidemic doubling times of 0.86 and 1.12 years for the US and Caribbean, respectively, suggesting rapid early expansion in each location. Comparisons with more recent data reveal many of these insights to be unattainable without archival, full-genome sequences. We also recovered the HIV-1 genome from the individual known as 'Patient 0' (ref. 5) and found neither biological nor historical evidence that he was the primary case in the US or for subtype B as a whole. We discuss the genesis and persistence of this belief in the light of these evolutionary insights.

Factors associated with incident self-reported AIDS among women enrolled in the women's interagency HIV study (WIHS). WIHS Collaboratorive Study Group

We evaluated factors associated with incident self-reported AIDS diagnoses among HIV-infected women in the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS). Baseline information included age, race/ethnicity, HIV risk category, site of enrollment, years of education, cigarette smoking, CD4 cell count, and HIV viral load. Baseline and follow-up data on self-reported AIDS were analyzed using chi-square, Kaplan-Meier, and Cox proportional hazard models. Among the 1397 HIV-infected women who reported being free of clinical AIDS at baseline, 335 women (24%) reported an incident AIDS diagnosis during follow-up. In stratified Kaplan-Meier analyses, the development of self-reported AIDS was significantly associated with baseline CD4 cell count and viral load (p<0.01). In multivariate Cox proportional hazard analyses, women were statistically more likely to report AIDS if they had CD4 cell counts below 195 cells/mm3 (p<0.01), HIV RNA >4000 copies/ml (p<0.01), were current smokers (p<0.01), and had "no identifiable risk" for acquisition of HIV (p = 0.03). Self-reports of a clinical AIDS diagnosis may not always be accurate, but laboratory markers of HIV disease indicate that those women who self-report such diagnoses have greater immunodeficiency and a higher viral load when compared with those who report no AIDS-defining diagnoses.