Minimum spring temperatures at the provenance origin drive leaf phenology in sugar maple populations

Local conditions have greater influence than provenance on sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) frost hardiness at its northern range limit

In temperate and boreal ecosystems, trees undergo dormancy to avoid cold temperatures during the unfavorable season. This phase includes changes in frost hardiness, which is minimal during the growing season and reaches its maximum in winter. Quantifying frost hardiness is important to assess the frost risk and shifts of species distribution under a changing climate. We investigate the effect of local conditions and intra-specific variation on frost hardiness in sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.). Seedlings belonging to seven provenances from the northern area of the species' range were planted at two sites in Quebec, Canada. LT50, i.e. the lethal temperature for 50% of the cells, was measured monthly with the relative electrolyte leakage method on branches and buds from September 2021 to July 2022. LT50 varied between -4 °C in summer (July) and -68 °C in winter (February). Autumnal acclimation rates (September to early December) and mid-winter frost hardiness (December to early March) were similar in both sites. Samples in the southern site deacclimated faster than in the northern site between March and July because of a warmer and earlier spring. No difference in frost hardiness was detected between provenances. Our results suggest that the frost hardiness trait is similar within the northern part of the sugar maple distribution, with local weather conditions having a greater influence than provenance. We demonstrate that LT50 in sugar maple can exceed -55 °C, far below the minimum temperatures occurring in winter at the northern limit of the species. In order to minimize the risk of damage from extreme frost events exceeding tree frost hardiness, a careful evaluation of site characteristics is more important than provenance selection. Other factors should also be considered within the context of changing climate, in particular, the phenology of maple and avoidance of late frost in spring.

Population-specific climate sensitive top height curves and their applications to assisted migration

Growth and yield (G&Y) of forest plantations can be significantly impacted by maladaptation resulting from climate change, and assisted migration has been proposed to mitigate these impacts by restoring populations to their historic climates. However, genecology models currently used for guiding assisted migration do not account for impacts of climate change on cumulative growth and assume that responses of forest population to climate do not change with age. Using provenance trial data for interior lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta subsp. latifolia Douglas) and white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) in western Canada, we integrated Universal Response Functions, representing the relationship of population performance with their provenance and site climates, into top height curves in a G&Y model (Growth and Yield Projection System, GYPSY) to develop population-specific climate sensitive top height curves for both species. These new models can estimate the impact of climate change on top height of local populations and populations from a range of provenances to help guide assisted migration. Our findings reveal that climate change is expected to have varying effects on forest productivity across the landscape, with some areas projected to experience a slight increase in productivity by the 2050s, while the remainder are projected to face a significant decline in productivity for both species. Adoption of assisted migration, however, with the optimal populations selected was projected to maintain and even improve productivity at the provincial scale. The findings of this study provide a novel approach to incorporating assisted migration approaches into forest management to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change.

Spatial patterns and climatic drivers of leaf spring phenology of maple in eastern North America

The resurgent frequency of extreme weather events and their strongly distinctive spatial patterns lead to a growing interest in phenology as an indicator of tree susceptibility. Using a long-term chronology of observations collected in situ, we predicted and investigated the spatial patterns and environmental drivers of spring leaf phenology across maple stand polygons dominated by Acer saccharum Marsh. and/or Acer rubra L. in eastern North America for 2000-2018. Model' calibration was based on Bayesian ordinal regressions relating the timing of the phenological events' observations to the MODIS vegetation indices EVI, NDVI and LAI. DAYMET data have been extracted to compute temperature and precipitation during spring phenology. Model accuracy increased as the season progressed, with prediction uncertainty spanning from 9 days for bud swelling to 4 days for leaf unfolding. NDVI and LAI were the best predictors for the onset and ending of spring phenology, respectively. Bud swelling occurred at the end of March in the early stands and at the onset of May in the late stands, while leaf unfolding was completed at the beginning of April for the early and in mid-June for the late stands. Early and late stands polarized towards a south-west-north-east gradient. In the south-western regions, which are also the driest, total precipitation and minimum temperature explained respectively 73 % and 25 % of the duration of spring phenology. In the north-eastern regions, precipitation and minimum temperature explained 62 % and 26 % of the duration of spring phenology. Our results suggest high vulnerability to extreme weather events in stands located in the south-west of the species distribution. The increasing incidence of drought in these locations might affect spring phenology, decreasing net primary production in these stands. Warmer nights might expose the buds to late frosts, events that are expected to become more frequent in the coming years.

Daily timings of sap production in sugar maple in Quebec, Canada

Global warming is affecting plant phenology, with potential consequences on the dynamics of growth reactivation of sugar maple and the timings of maple syrup production. In this study, we assess the temperatures inducing the daily reactivation or cessation of sap production. We selected 19 sugarbushes across Quebec, Canada, using a tapping method associated with the tubing system, we recorded the daily timings of onset and ending of sap production during winter and spring 2018, and we associated the hourly temperatures at each site. Sap production occurred from mid-February to the end of April, starting on average between 10 and 11 AM, and ending from 6 to 8 PM. We observed a seasonal pattern in the onset and ending of sap production during spring, with the onset showing a greater change than the ending. Onset and ending of sap production occurred mostly under temperatures ranging between -2 and 2 °C. The production of sap in maple is closely related to circadian freeze-thaw cycles and occurs under nighttime and daytime temperatures fluctuating below and above 0 °C. The daily lengthening of the duration of sap production mirrors the changes in the timings of freeze and thaw events and can be explained by the physical properties of the water and the physiological processes occurring during growth reactivation. The ongoing warming will result in earlier and warmer springs, which may anticipate the cycles of freeze and thaw and advance sap production in sugar maple.

The early bud gets the cold: Diverging spring phenology drives exposure to late frost in a Picea mariana [(Mill.) BSP] common garden

Under climate change, the increasing occurrence of late frost combined with advancing spring phenology can increase the risk of frost damage in trees. In this study, we tested the link between intra-specific variability in bud phenology and frost exposure and damages. We analysed the effects of the 2021 late frost event in a black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP) common garden in Québec, Canada. We hypothesised that the timing of budbreak drives the exposure of vulnerable tissues and explains differences in frost damage. Budbreak was monitored from 2015 to 2021 in 371 trees from five provenances originating between 48° and 53° N and planted in a common garden at 48° N. Frost damages were assessed on the same trees through the proportion of damaged buds per tree and related to the phenological phases by ordinal regressions. After an unusually warm spring, minimum temperatures fell to -1.9°C on May 28 and 29, 2021. At this moment, trees from the northern provenances were more advanced in their phenology and showed more frost damage. Provenances with earlier budbreak had a higher probability of damage occurrence according to ordinal regression. Our study highlights the importance of intra-specific variability of phenological traits on the risk of frost exposure. We provide evidence that the timings of bud phenology affect sensitivity to frost, leading to damages at temperatures of -1.9°C. Under the same conditions, the earlier growth reactivation observed in the northern provenances increases the risks of late frost damage on the developing buds.

Variability in frost occurrence under climate change and consequent risk of damage to trees of western Quebec, Canada

Climate change affects timings, frequency, and intensity of frost events in northern ecosystems. However, our understanding of the impacts that frost will have on growth and survival of plants is still limited. When projecting the occurrence of frost, the internal variability and the different underlying physical formulations are two major sources of uncertainty of climate models. We use 50 climate simulations produced by a single-initial large climate ensemble and five climate simulations produced by different pairs of global and regional climate models based on the concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) over a latitudinal transect covering the temperate and boreal ecosystems of western Quebec, Canada, during 1955–2099 to provide a first-order estimate of the relative importance of these two sources of uncertainty on the occurrence of frost, i.e. when air temperature is < 0 °C, and their potential damage to trees. The variation in the date of the last spring frost was larger by 21 days (from 46 to 25 days) for the 50 climate simulations compared to the 5 different pairs of climate models. When considering these two sources of uncertainty in an eco-physiological model simulating the timings of budbreak for trees of northern environment, results show that 20% of climate simulations expect that trees will be exposed to frost even in 2090. Thus, frost damage to trees remains likely under global warming.

A review on trade-offs at the warm and cold ends of geographical distributions

Species' range limits are ubiquitous. This suggests that the evolution of the ecological niche is constrained in general and at the edges of distributions in particular. While there may be many ecological and genetic reasons for this phenomenon, here we focus on the potential role of trade-offs. We performed a literature search on evidence for trade-offs associated with geographical or elevational range limits. The majority of trade-offs were reported as relevant at either the cold end of species' distribution (n = 19), the warm or dry end (n = 19) or both together (n = 14). One common type of trade-off involved accelerating growth or development (27%), often at the cost of small size. Another common type involved resistance to or tolerance of climatic extremes that occur at certain periods of the year (64%), often at the cost of small size or reduced growth. Trade-offs overlapped with some of the classic trade-offs reported in life-history evolution or thermal adaptation. The results highlight several general insights about species' niches and ranges, and we outline how future research should better integrate the ecological context and test for the presence of microevolutionary trade-offs. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'.