Natural history of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma in Crete. Association with hepatitis C virus

Reporting Liver Cancer Trends in the Island of Crete, Greece: Results from a Geo-Epidemiological Study

Liver cancer is one of the most frequent cancers in Europe and Greece. An increase in specific risk factors, such as metabolic syndrome and obesity, has been observed in Greece. Therefore, exploring temporal trends of liver cancer incidence and mortality is crucial. This study aims to assess the "burden" of malignant liver tumors (MLT) in Crete, Greece, in terms of incidence and mortality rates, and identify the high-risk areas on the island (i.e., municipalities), to suggest public health measures. Data were obtained from the Cancer Registry Center (CRC) and included all cases of MLT for the period 1992-2013 in Crete. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-specific incidence rates (ASpIR), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and age-specific mortality rates (ASpMR) were estimated. For the study period (1992-2013), incidence and mortality showed an increasing trend. Mean ASIR was found 15.3/100,000/year and mean ASMR 8.6/100,000/year. Age groups 65-69 and 75-79 years among men presented the highest rates of (ASIR = 39/100,000/year) and among women age groups of 75-79 and 80-84 years a mean ASIR (22/100,000/year). The five-year survival rate of MLT was 50% and the ten-year survival rate was 47% for both genders. Risk factors that were identified included personal history of cancer, family history of MLT or other cancer, degree of relationship, smoking, and obesity. Some municipalities of Crete were found to be high-risk areas for MLT, while differences were detected in incidence and mortality rates, and annual rate change among them. Estimated variation indicates further increase probably due to the lifestyle of the residents, economic crisis, and inadequate preventive measures.

Geoepidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma in the island of Crete, Greece. A possible role of pesticides

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Geoepidemiological data of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are lacking. Crete has a genetically homogeneous population and is suitable for studies to identify a possible contribution of environmental factors in HCC.

METHODS

Databases for HCC (316 cases), hepatitis B virus (HBV) (633) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) (392), constructed over the past 20 years in our Unit, were used. Data included place of birth and place of residence for the last 15 years. Hellenic Statistical Authority provided population statistics from 1980 to 2014. Time-spatial methods were applied in Gis-ArcMap 10 software. Spatial autocorrelation tests (Moran's index) detected differences between the spatial distribution to place of residence. Spatial density maps were created. Kriging Interpolation was applied, to produce prediction maps of HCC.

RESULTS

Hepatitis C virus appears in areas of high prevalence while HBV is uniformly distributed. HCC is more prevalent in Eastern Crete. A spatial autocorrelation between HCC and either HCV (Moran's I = 0.88, P < 0.001) or HBV (I = 0.84, P < 0.02) was found as expected. However, there is a discrepancy in the South East of Crete, where a higher prevalence of HCC than expected was observed. This is an area where extensive use of pesticides in large green houses is practiced.

CONCLUSIONS

Hepatocellular carcinoma is associated with the dispersion of HCV and HBVs. In an area with widespread use of pesticides, a higher than expected spatial distribution of HCC was detected.

Clinical outcomes of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis: A long term study

AIM: To study these characteristics and prognostic patterns in a Greek patient population.

METHODS: We analyzed a large cohort of cirrhotic patients referred to the department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology and the outpatient clinics of this tertiary hospital, between 1991 and 2008. We included patients with established cirrhosis, either compensated or decompensated, and further decompensation episodes were registered. A data base was maintained and updated prospectively throughout the study period. We analyzed differences in cirrhosis aetiology, time to and mode of decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence and ultimately patient survival.

RESULTS: Five hundreds and twenty-two patients with median age 67 (range, 29-91) years and average follow up 9 years-10 mo (range, 1-206 mo) were studied. Commonest aetiology was hepatitis C virus (HCV, 41%) followed by alcohol (31%). The median survival time in compensated cirrhotics was 115 mo (95%CI: 95-133), whereas in decompensated patients was 55 mo (95%CI: 36-75). HCV patients survived longer while HBV patients had over twice the risk of death of HCV patients. The median time to decompensation was 65 mo (95%CI: 51-79), with alcoholics having the highest risk (RR = 2.1 vs HCV patients). Hepatitis B virus (HBV) patients had the highest risk of HCC, alcoholics the lowest. Leading causes of death: liver failure, hepatorenal syndrome, sepsis and HCC progression.

CONCLUSION: Cirrhosis aetiology and decompensation at presentation were predictors of survival. Alcoholics had the highest decompensation risk, HBV cirrhotics the highest risk of HCC and HCV cirrhotics the highest decompensation-free time.

Prognostic indicators in hepatocellular carcinoma: a systematic review of 72 studies

BACKGROUND

Although there are many studies of the predictors of death in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), most combine patients with and without cirrhosis and many combine those with compensated and decompensated cirrhosis.

OBJECTIVE

To perform a systematic review of the literature evaluating the predictors of death in patients with cirrhosis and HCC and to evaluate whether the predictors differ between patients with compensated and decompensated cirrhosis.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

(i) publication in English, (ii) adult patients, (c) >80% of the patients had cirrhosis, (iv) follow-up >6 months and (v) multivariable analysis. Quality was based on the accepted quality criteria for prognostic studies.

RESULTS

Of the 1106 references obtained, 947 were excluded because they did not meet the inclusion criteria. A total of 23 968 patients were included in 72 studies (median, 177/study); 77% male, median age 64, 55% Child-Pugh class A. The most robust predictors of death were portal vein thrombosis, tumour size, alpha-foetoprotein and Child-Pugh class. Sensitivity analysis using only 15 'good' studies and 22 studies in which all patients had cirrhosis yielded the same variables. In the studies including mostly compensated or decompensated patients, the predictors were both liver and tumour related. However, these studies were few and the results were not robust.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review of 72 studies shows that the most robust predictors of death in patients with cirrhosis and HCC are tumour related and liver related. Future prognostic studies should include these predictors and should be performed in specific patient populations to determine whether specific prognostic indicators are more relevant at different stages of cirrhosis.

Occult hepatitis B virus infection in Greek patients with chronic hepatitis C and in patients with diverse nonviral hepatic diseases

Occult hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection has been reported in patients with chronic hepatitis C who are negative for HBV surface antigen (HBsAg). However, the significance of 'silent' HBV in hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is unknown. We investigated 540 subjects for the presence of occult HBV in Greek HCV patients, patients with nonviral liver diseases and healthy donors in an attempt to determine the frequency and importance of this phenomenon. One hundred and eighty-seven anti-HCV(+)/HBsAg(-) patients' sera were investigated for the presence of HBV-DNA by polymerase chain reaction. Two hundred and eighty-two selected blood donors (positive for antibodies to HBV core antigen) and 71 patients with various nonviral hepatic diseases consisted the control groups [both controls were anti-HCV(-)/HBsAg(-)]. HBV-DNA was detected in 26.2% of HCV-infected patients vs 8.5% of patients with nonviral diseases (P = 0.003) and 0/282 of donors (P = 0.0000). HBV-DNA was neither associated with HBV markers, nor with the clinical status of HCV and nonHCV patients. Neither epidemiological, histologic and virologic data nor the response to therapy were associated with the HBV-DNA detection. Hence one quarter of HCV-infected patients had occult HBV infection. Similar findings were not found in both control groups. Occult HBV infection in Greek patients with chronic hepatitis C does not seem to modify the progression of chronic liver disease. Further studies of longer duration are needed in order to clarify the role of 'silent' HBV infection in HCV-infected patients.

CLIP score as a prognostic indicator for hepatocellular carcinoma: experience with patients in the Middle East

OBJECTIVE

To assess the prognostic ability of the Cancer of the Liver Italian Programme (CLIP) score and compare it with the Okuda system in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma from the Middle East, where the majority (70%) present with intermediate or advanced stages of the disease and do not receive any tumour-specific treatment.

METHODS

The medical records of 145 patients (113 males; mean age, 58.8 +/- 12.2 years) diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma over a 6-year period were reviewed and the disease was staged according to the CLIP and Okuda systems. The survival was compared by Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

The overall median survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma was 8.3 months (95% confidence interval, 6.6-9.4). The median survivals for CLIP score 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4-6 were 35, 29, 9, 6, and 2 months, respectively; for Okuda stages I, II and III, they were 24, 9 and 4 months, respectively. The CLIP system was judged to be statistically more efficient and consistent than the Okuda in predicting survival in the Cox proportional hazard model.

CONCLUSIONS

These data from patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in the Middle East suggest that the CLIP score is more reliable than the Okuda system in predicting survival and can be used efficiently to determine prognosis in patients who present with intermediate or late stage of the disease.

Cost-effectiveness of screening for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis due to chronic hepatitis C

BACKGROUND

Screening for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic patients using abdominal ultrasonography and alpha-foetoprotein levels is widely practiced.

AIM

To evaluate its cost-effectiveness using a Markov decision model.

METHODS

Several screening strategies with abdominal ultrasonography or computerized tomography and serum alpha-foetoprotein at 6-12-month intervals in 40-year-old patients with chronic hepatitis C and compensated cirrhosis were simulated from a societal perspective, resulting in discounted costs per quality-adjusted life-year saved. Extensive sensitivity analysis was performed.

RESULTS

For the least efficacious strategy, annual alpha-foetoprotein/ultrasonography, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (vs. no screening) was $23 043/quality-adjusted life-year. Biannual alpha-foetoprotein/annual ultrasonography, the most commonly used strategy in the United States, was more efficacious, with a cost-effectiveness ratio of $33 083/quality-adjusted life-year vs. annual alpha-foetoprotein/ultrasonography. The most efficacious strategy, biannual alpha-foetoprotein/ultrasonography, resulted in a cost-effectiveness ratio of $73 789/quality-adjusted life-year vs. biannual alpha-foetoprotein/annual ultrasonography. Biannual alpha-foetoprotein/annual computerized tomography screening resulted in a cost-effectiveness ratio of $51 750/quality-adjusted life-year vs. biannual alpha-foetoprotein/annual ultrasonography screening.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening for hepatocellular carcinoma is as cost-effective as other accepted screening protocols. Of the strategies evaluated, biannual alpha-foetoprotein/annual ultrasonography gives the most quality-adjusted life-year gain while still maintaining a cost-effectiveness ratio <$50 000/quality-adjusted life-year. Biannual alpha-foetoprotein/annual computerized tomography screening may be cost-effective.

Prevalence of hepatitis B and C markers in high-risk hospitalised patients in Crete: a five-year observational study

BACKGROUND

So far the prevalence of viral hepatitis infection in hospitalized patients has not been extensively studied. Therefore we conducted the present five-year observational study to evaluate the prevalence of HBV and HCV infection in high-risk hospitalized patients of Crete, the largest Greek island, Due to the homogeneous population, epidemiological studies can be accurately done.

METHODS

The study was carried out in two out of four District General Hospitals, and in the University Hospital of the island. Markers for HBV and HCV were studied and statistically evaluated according to age, sex and geographical area, in a well-defined hospitalized population.

RESULTS

The total prevalence of HBsAg and anti-HCV in the three prefectures during the five-year study is 2.66% and 4.75% respectively. Overall the relative risks were higher in males than females for each hepatitis marker (p < 0.001). Higher prevalence of HBcAb was found in the 41-60 years age group for both sexes (males 36.17%, females 27.38%). Peak HBsAg prevalence was found in the age group of 21-40 and 41-60 years for males (5.4%) and females (3.09%) respectively. Anti-HCV prevalence increases with age reaching the highest prevalence in the age group of 41-60 years for males (7.19%) and in the 61-90 years age group for females (7.16%). For both sexes significant differences between the three locations were identified. For HBsAg a higher prevalence in Heraklion (3.96%) compared to Chania (2.30%, males: p < 0.0001, females: p < 0.05) and Rethymnon (1.45%, males: p < 0.01, females: p < 0.0001) was detected. For HCV a significantly higher prevalence in Heraklion (6.54%) compared to Chania (2.39%, males: p < 0.001, females: p < 0.001) but not in Rethymnon (5.15%, NS). A lower prevalence rate of HBcAb in Heraklion compared to Chania (20.07% versus 23.05%, males: p < 0.001, females: p < 0.001) was found.

CONCLUSIONS

These results were possibly overestimated, but nevertheless reflect the situation of the general population within the island as shown by our previous publications in other study groups. Moreover they contribute to the mapping of viral hepatitis prevalence in a geographical area of Southern Europe and may be helpful in planning public health interventional strategies.

Risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma in Turkey

The contribution of hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and excess alcohol intake to the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in Turkey was assessed. The study was conducted through a questionnaire sent to seven major medical referral centers in different regions of Turkey and is based on 207 patients seen in the period 1994-1997. Of the seven centers, two were located in West Turkey (54 patients), two were in Central Turkey (85 patients), and two were in south and southeast Turkey (68 patients). In 196 of the 207 patients (94.7%), there was a history of chronic liver disease, and in 180 patients (87%) liver cirrhosis was documented. Of the 207 patients, 116 (56%) had hepatitis B, 48 (23.2%) had hepatitis C, and 33 (15.9%) had a history of excess alcohol intake. Anti-delta testing was available in 69 of 116 patients with hepatitis B, and anti-HDV was positive in 13 of these patients (13/69, 18.8%). Of the 33 patients with a history of heavy alcohol intake, 18 had concomitant chronic viral hepatitis infection, and alcohol alone was the etiology of hepatocellular carcinoma in only 15 cases (7.2%). The distribution of etiologic factors was not homogenous in different geographical regions in Turkey. In central, south, and southeastern Turkey, the predominant etiology of hepatocellular carcinoma was hepatitis B, whereas in western Turkey the impact of hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and alcohol was similar. This study indicates that hepatitis B virus infection is the leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma in Turkey, followed by hepatitis C infection and alcoholic liver disease.

Prevalence of hepatitis B and C markers in volunteer blood donors in Crete. A 5-year study

Greece is a country with an intermediate prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Crete, the third-largest island of the Mediterranean sea, has a different prevalence of viral hepatitis. One-eighth of the total island population, of 550,000, was included in a 5-year study of blood donors from three out of four blood banks, serving three out of four prefectures of the island. Markers for HBV and HCV were studied and evaluated according to geographical area, gender and age of donor. A total of 65219 blood donors were studied. A greater number of males than females were hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) positive (0. 41% vs 0.28%, respectively) with a peak at a younger age for males and older age for females. Males are more frequently exposed to HBV and become carriers more often than females. For HCV, an opposite gender trend was found, females being infected more frequently (0. 49%) than males (0.37%). Statistical differences were found among geographical areas of the island. Hence, Crete is an area of low endemicity for HBsAg in blood donors. The HCV infectivity is more similar to Northern Europe than to other neighbouring countries. Differences in geographical distribution within the island and during different years indicate the need for extended epidemiological surveys for valid results.