Serum fibrosis markers can detect large oesophageal varices with a high accuracy

Evaluation of non-invasive marker of esophageal varices in cirrhosis of liver

Introduction

Esophageal varices develop as a consequence of portal hypertension (PHT) in patients with chronic liver disease. Hence, screening of all cirrhotic patients with upper gastrointestinal endoscopy to detect the presence of significant esophageal varices implies a number of unnecessary endoscopies and has its limitation where such facilities are not available, especially in the rural part of country.

Method

Patients with either sex, aged between 18 and 60 years with diagnosis of cirrhosis were studied. Detailed history, physical examination along with relevant investigations were recorded and upper gastrointestinal endoscopy was done within 2-3 days of investigation. Esophageal varices were graded as I-IV, using the Paquet grading system and patients were classified dichotomously either as having large esophageal varices (LEV) group A (Grade III-IV) and no varices group B (grade I-II).

Result

A total of 50 patients with cirrhosis of liver were recruited in the study. Among hematological markers, only low platelet count was significantly associated with the presence of LEV (P value <0.05). None of the biochemical markers were found to be significantly associated with LEV. All the ultrasonographic parameters, i.e. spleen size, splenic vein size, portal vein size, and the presence of portosystemic collaterals were found to be significantly associated with the presence of LEV (P value <0.05).

Conclusion

Though upper gastrointestinal endoscopy remains the gold standard for the diagnosis of esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients,those patients at high risk of having LEV can be screened by using clinical, hematological, biochemical, and radiological markers.

Large oesophageal varice screening by a sequential algorithm using a cirrhosis blood test and optionally capsule endoscopy

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Large oesophageal varice (LEV) screening is recommended in cirrhosis. We performed a prospective study to improve non-invasive LEV screening.

DESIGN

287 patients with cirrhosis had upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (LEV reference), oesophageal capsule endoscopy (ECE), liver elastography and blood marker analyses. CirrhoMeter (cirrhosis blood test), the most accurate non-invasive LEV test, was segmented for cirrhosis (reference comparator) or LEV. VariScreen, a sequential and partially minimally invasive diagnostic algorithm, was developed by multivariate analysis. It uses CirrhoMeter first, then ECE if CirrhoMeter cannot rule LEV out or in, and finally endoscopy if CirrhoMeter+ECE combination remains uninformative.

RESULTS

Diagnostic effectiveness rates for LEV were: cirrhosis-segmented CirrhoMeter: 14.6%, LEV-segmented CirrhoMeter: 34.6%, ECE: 60.6% and VariScreen: 66.4% (P ≤ .001 for overall or pair comparison). The respective missed LEV rates were: 2.8%, 5.6%, 8.3% and 5.6% (P = .789). Spared endoscopy rates were, respectively: 15.6%, 36.0%, 70.6% and 69%, (P < .001 for overall or paired comparison except ECE vs VariScreen: P = .743). VariScreen spared 38% of ECE and reduced missed LEV by 87% compared to classical ECE performed in all patients. Excepting cirrhosis-segmented CirrhoMeter, these spared endoscopy rates were significantly higher than that of the Baveno VI recommendation (using platelets and Fibroscan): 18.4% (P < .001). Ascites and Child-Pugh class independently predicted endoscopy sparing by VariScreen: from 86.0% in compensated Child Pugh class A to 24.1% in Child-Pugh class C with ascites.

CONCLUSION

VariScreen algorithm significantly reduced the missed LEV rate with ECE by 87%, ECE use by 38% and endoscopy requirement by 69%, and even 86% in compensated cirrhosis.

Noninvasive assessment of portal hypertension in cirrhosis: Liver stiffness and beyond

Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) is a good, but still limited tool to noninvasively assess complications and prognosis in patients with advanced liver disease. This review aims to consider the role of LSM for the diagnosis of portal hypertension-related complications and for assessment of prognosis in cirrhotic patients, and to highlight the drawbacks as well as some alternatives for improving the performance. Hence, this field is far from being closed, and deserves more attention. There is still a place for more carefully designed studies to find new, innovative and reliable approaches.

A clinical prediction rule and platelet count predict esophageal varices in children

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The validation of noninvasive tests to diagnose esophageal varices is a priority in children because repeated endoscopic evaluations are too invasive. We measured the ability of a previously developed noninvasive clinical prediction rule (CPR) to predict the presence of esophageal varices in children.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 108 children, younger than age 18, who received endoscopies at 8 centers, to assess portal hypertension from chronic liver disease or portal vein obstruction. Blood test and abdominal ultrasound scan results were obtained within 4 months of endoscopy. Grading of varices identified by endoscopy was confirmed by independent blinded review. Spleen size, based on data from the ultrasound scan, was expressed as a standard deviation score relative to normal values for age.

RESULTS

Of the children studied, 74 had esophageal varices (69%), including 35 with large varices (32%). The best noninvasive predictors of esophageal varices of any size were as follows: platelet:spleen size z-score ratio (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC], 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75-0.93), CPR (AUROC, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.70-0.91), and platelet count (AUROC, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.69-0.90). The positive predictive values for the CPR and platelet count were 0.87 and 0.86, the negative predictive values were 0.64 and 0.63, the positive likelihood ratios were 3.06 and 2.76, and the negative likelihood ratios were 0.64 and 0.63, respectively. Based on positive and negative predictive values, the most accurate noninvasive tests were the CPR and platelet counts.

CONCLUSIONS

Noninvasive tests such as CPR and platelet count can assist in triaging children for endoscopy to identify esophageal varices.

Can serum fibrosis markers predict medium/large oesophageal varices in patients with liver cirrhosis?

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

Non-invasive predictors of medium/large oesophageal varices (LOVs) could reduce the number of screening endoscopies. As portal hypertension is a consequence of liver fibrosis, serum fibrosis markers were evaluated together with other variables as possible non-invasive predictors of medium OV/LOV.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 154 cirrhotic patients with splenomegaly and 30 healthy control subjects were recruited in a prospective study in two gastroenterology centres in Upper Egypt. Clinical parameters assessed included Child-Pugh class, liver size and ascites. Laboratory parameters included complete blood count, liver function tests, and aspartate aminotransferase (AST)/platelet ratio. Transforming growth factor-β(1) (TGF-β(1)), alpha(2) macroglobulin (A(2)M) and hyaluronic acid (HA) were assayed. Ultrasonographic examination was done for assessment of liver span, portal vein diameter and detection of minimal ascites. Oesophageal varices were diagnosed and graded by oesophagogastroduodenoscopy.

RESULTS

Fifty-four patients (35%) had no or small varices and 100 (65%) patients had medium OV/LOV by endoscopy. On multivariate analysis, the independent predictors of medium OV/LOV were the presence of ascites (β=0.258, p=0.047) and serum HA (β=0.449, p=0.009). The receiver operating characteristic curve for HA showed the area under the curve to be 0.916. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and diagnostic accuracy of HA at a cut-off value of 207μgl(-1) were 94%, 77.8%, 88.7%, 87.5% and 88.3%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of ascites and serum HA level higher than 207μgl(-1) can predict the presence of medium OV/LOV in cirrhotic patients. This would help physicians to identify patients who would most likely benefit from screening endoscopy and thus, reduce costs and discomfort from unnecessary endoscopic procedures.

Prediction of large esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients using classification and regression tree analysis

OBJECTIVES

Recent guidelines recommend that all cirrhotic patients should undergo endoscopic screening for esophageal varices. That identifying cirrhotic patients with esophageal varices by noninvasive predictors would allow for the restriction of the performance of endoscopy to patients with a high risk of having varices. This study aimed to develop a decision model based on classification and regression tree analysis for the prediction of large esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

309 cirrhotic patients (training sample, 187 patients; test sample 122 patients) were included. Within the training sample, the classification and regression tree analysis was used to identify predictors and prediction model of large esophageal varices. The prediction model was then further evaluated in the test sample and different Child-Pugh classes.

RESULTS

The prevalence of large esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients was 50.8%. A tree model that was consisted of spleen width, portal vein diameter and prothrombin time was developed by classification and regression tree analysis achieved a diagnostic accuracy of 84% for prediction of large esophageal varices. When reconstructed into two groups, the rate of varices was 83.2% for high-risk group and 15.2% for low-risk group. Accuracy of the tree model was maintained in the test sample and different Child-Pugh classes.

CONCLUSIONS

A decision tree model that consists of spleen width, portal vein diameter and prothrombin time may be useful for prediction of large esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients.

Derivation of a clinical prediction rule for the noninvasive diagnosis of varices in children

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Identification of children who are at high risk for having varices using noninvasive tests would enable the selection of children for future studies of primary prophylaxis of variceal hemorrhage, but this has been inadequately studied. The objective of the study was to derive a noninvasive clinical prediction rule that is able to identify children with esophageal varices.

METHODS

Fifty-one consecutive children with liver disease or portal hypertension who underwent endoscopy were included in the present retrospective study. At endoscopy, variceal size was graded on a 4-point Likert scale. Results of physical examination, blood tests, and abdominal ultrasound scan (USS) were recorded. Spleen length on USS was expressed as a standard deviation score (z score). A descriptive univariate analysis was performed on variables that were potentially associated with esophageal varices and multivariate logistic regression was then modeled to derive a clinical prediction rule.

RESULTS

Esophageal varices were found in 17 of the 51 children (33%). Variables found to differ significantly between children with and without varices included platelet/spleen-length z score ratio (P < 0.001), platelet count (P < 0.001), international normalized ratio (P = 0.001), aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio (P = 0.002), and albumin (P = 0.003). Using multivariate logistic regression, a model with platelet count, spleen length z score, and albumin as the independent variables had the best fit. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for this clinical prediction rule was 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.85-0.99), sensitivity 94%, specificity 81%, positive predictive value 0.83, negative predictive value 0.94, positive likelihood ratio 5, and negative likelihood ratio 0.06.

CONCLUSIONS

This clinical prediction rule is a simple noninvasive measure that may identify children at high risk for esophageal varices. A prospective validation study is in progress.

Systematic review: endoscopic and imaging-based techniques in the assessment of portal haemodynamics and the risk of variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND

Invasive measurement of the hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) is regarded as the gold standard for risk stratification and the evaluation of pharmaceutical agents in patients with portal hypertension.

AIM

To review the techniques for endoscopic and imaging-based assessment of portal haemodynamics, with particular emphasis on trials where the results were compared with HVPG or direct portal pressure measurement.

METHODS

Systematic search of the MEDLINE electronic database with keywords: portal hypertension, variceal bleeding, variceal pressure, endoscopic ultrasound, Doppler ultrasonography, magnetic resonance angiography, CT angiography, hepatic venous pressure gradient.

RESULTS

Computed tomography angiography and endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) have been both employed for the diagnosis of complications of portal hypertension and for the evaluation of the efficacy of endoscopic therapy. Colour Doppler ultrasonography and magnetic resonance angiography has given discrepant results. Endoscopic variceal pressure measurements either alone or combined with simultaneous EUS, correlate well with HVPG and risk of variceal bleeding and have a low interobserver variability.

CONCLUSIONS

Endoscopic and imaging-based measurements of portal haemodynamics provide an alternate means for the assessment of complications of portal hypertension. Further studies are required to validate their use in risk stratification and the evaluation of drug therapies in patients with portal hypertension.

A simple noninvasive score predicts gastroesophageal varices in patients with chronic viral hepatitis

BACKGROUND

Guidelines recommend upper endoscopic screening of cirrhotic patients for gastroesophageal varices. Cirrhosis is not always distinguishable from chronic hepatitis.

GOALS

To identify low-risk patients who can be spared upper endoscopy irrespective of a diagnosis of cirrhosis.

STUDY

We evaluated 13 nonendoscopic variables as predictors of esophagogastric varices in 254 patients with hepatitis B or hepatitis C-related chronic liver disease who underwent upper endoscopy.

RESULTS

Any size varices occurred in 30.3% (77/254), and large varices in 12.2% of patients (31/254). Age >50 years [odds ratio (OR): 11.29; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.33-54.67], platelet count <150,000/mmc (OR: 4.40; 95% CI: 1.85-10.45), albumin <3.6 g/dL (OR: 2.99; 95% CI: 1.31-6.79), and aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio >1 (OR: 2.83; 95% CI: 1.26-6.34) independently predicted varices by logistic regression. Using a score based on age >50 years, platelets <150,000/mmc, and aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio >1 (1 point/predictor), only 3.2% of patients with a score <2 had varices, all small.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with chronic viral hepatitis and a score <2 need not undergo upper endoscopy, as they are unlikely to have large varices. Because about 50% of our patients had this score, 50% of upper endoscopies may be safely avoided.

Serum type IV collagen level is predictive for esophageal varices in patients with severe alcoholic disease

AIM: To determine factors predictive for esophageal varices in severe alcoholic disease (SAD).

METHODS: Abdominal ultrasonography (US) was performed on 444 patients suffering from alcoholism. Forty-four patients found to have splenomegaly and/or withering of the right liver lobe were defined as those with SAD. SAD patients were examined by upper gastrointestinal (UGI) endoscopy for the presence of esophageal varices. The existence of esophageal varices was then related to clinical variables.

RESULTS: Twenty-five patients (56.8%) had esophageal varices. A univariate analysis revealed a significant difference in age and type IV collagen levels between patients with and without esophageal varices. A logistic regression analysis identified type IV collagen as the only independent variable predictive for esophageal varices (P = 0.017). The area under the curve (AUC) for type IV collagen as determined by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) for predicting esophageal varices was 0.78.

CONCLUSION: This study suggests that the level of type IV collagen has a high diagnostic accuracy for the detection of esophageal varices in SAD.