A modified ICRP 66 iodine gas uptake model and its parametric uncertainty

Simulations of radioiodine exposure and protective thyroid blocking in a new biokinetic model of the mother-fetus unit at different pregnancy ages

In the case of nuclear incidents, radioiodine may be released. After incorporation, it accumulates in the thyroid and enhances the risk of thyroidal dysfunctions and cancer occurrence by internal irradiation. Pregnant women and children are particularly vulnerable. Therefore, thyroidal protection by administering a large dose of stable (non-radioactive) iodine, blocking radioiodide uptake into the gland, is essential in these subpopulations. However, a quantitative estimation of the protection conferred to the maternal and fetal thyroids in the different stages of pregnancy is difficult. We departed from an established biokinetic model for radioiodine in pregnancy using first-order kinetics. As the uptake of iodide into the thyroid and several other tissues is mediated by a saturable active transport, we integrated an uptake mechanism described by a Michaelis–Menten kinetic. This permits simulating the competition between stable and radioactive iodide at the membrane carrier site, one of the protective mechanisms. The Wollf–Chaikoff effect, as the other protective mechanism, was simulated by adding a total net uptake block for iodide into the thyroid, becoming active when the gland is saturated with iodine. The model’s validity was confirmed by comparing predicted values with results from other models and sparse empirical data. According to our model, in the case of radioiodine exposure without thyroid blocking, the thyroid equivalent dose in the maternal gland increases about 45% within the first weeks of pregnancy to remain in the same range until term. Beginning in the 12th pregnancy week, the equivalent dose in the fetal thyroid disproportionately increases over time and amounts to three times the dose of the maternal gland at term. The maternal and fetal glands’ protection increases concomitantly with the amount of stable iodine administered to the mother simultaneously with acute radioiodine exposure. The dose–effect curves reflecting the combined thyroidal protection by the competition at the membrane carrier site and the Wolff–Chaikoff effect in the mother are characterized by a mean effective dose (ED₅₀) of roughly 1.5 mg all over pregnancy. In the case of the fetal thyroid, the mean effective doses for thyroid blocking, taking into account only the competition at the carrier site are numerically lower than in the mother. Taking into account additionally the Wolff–Chaikoff effect, the dose–effect curves for thyroidal protection in the fetus show a shift to the left over time, with a mean effective dose of 12.9 mg in the 12th week of pregnancy decreasing to 0.5 mg at term. In any case, according to our model, the usually recommended dose of 100 mg stable iodine given at the time of acute radioiodine exposure confers a very high level of thyroidal protection to the maternal and fetal glands over pregnancy. For ethical reasons, the possibilities of experimental studies on thyroid blocking in pregnant women are extremely limited. Furthermore, results from animal studies are associated with the uncertainties related to the translation of the data to humans. Thus model-based simulations may be a valuable tool for better insight into the efficacy of thyroidal protection and improve preparedness planning for uncommon nuclear or radiological emergencies.

Uncertainty quantification of bioassay functions for the internal dosimetry of radioiodine

Bioassay functions, which are provided by the International Commission on Radiological Protection, are used to estimate the intake activity of radionuclides; however, they include considerable uncertainties in terms of the internal dosimetry for a particular individual. During a practical internal dose assessment, the uncertainty in the bioassay function is generally not introduced because of the difficulty in quantification. Therefore, to clarify the existence of uncertainty in the bioassay function and provide dosimetrists with an insight into this uncertainty, this study attempted to quantify the uncertainty in the thyroid retention function used for radioiodine exposure. The uncertainty was quantified using a probabilistic estimation of the thyroid retention function through the propagation of the distribution of biokinetic parameters by the Monte Carlo simulation technique. The uncertainties in the thyroid retention function, expressed in terms of the scattering factor, were in the ranges of 1.55-1.60 and 1.40-1.50 for within 24 h and after 24 h, respectively. In addition, the thyroid retention function within 24 h was compared with actual measurement data to confirm the uncertainty due to the use of first-order kinetics in the biokinetic model calculation. Significantly higher thyroid uptakes (by a factor of 1.9) were observed in the actual measurements. This study indicates that consideration of the uncertainty in the thyroid retention function can avoid a significant over- and under-estimation of the internal dose, particularly when a high dose is predicted.

Uncertainty of the thyroid dose conversion factor for inhalation intakes of 131I and its parametric uncertainty

Inhalation exposures of 131I may occur in the physical form of a gas as well as a particulate. The physical characteristics pertaining to these different types of releases influence the intake and subsequent dose to an exposed individual. The thyroid dose received is influenced by the route through which 131I enters the body and its subsequent clearance, absorption and movement throughout the body. The radioactive iodine taken up in the gas-exchange tissues is cleared to other tissues or absorbed into the bloodstream of the individual and transferred to other organs. Iodine in the circulatory system is then taken up by the thyroid gland with resulting dose to that tissue. The magnitude of and uncertainty in the thyroid dose is important to the assessment of individuals exposed to airborne releases of radioiodine. Age- and gender-specific modelling parameters have resulted in significant differences between gas uptake, particulate deposition and inhalation dose conversion factors for each age and gender group. Inhalation dose conversion factors and their inherent uncertainty are markedly affected by the type of iodine intake. These differences are expected due to the modelling of particulate deposition versus uptake of gas in the respiratory tract. Inhalation dose estimates via iodine gases are very similar and separate classifications may not be necessarily based on this assessment.