Adult ICU Triage During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic: Who Will Live and Who Will Die? Recommendations to Improve Survival

In-Hospital Triage

The intensive care unit (ICU) is a finite and expensive resource with demand not infrequently exceeding capacity. Understanding ICU capacity strain is essential to gain situational awareness. Increased capacity strain can influence ICU triage decisions, which rely heavily on clinical judgment. Having an admission and triage protocol with which clinicians are very familiar can mitigate difficult, inappropriate admissions. This article reviews these concepts and methods of in-hospital triage.

Factors related to mortality of patients with COVID-19 who are admitted to the ICU: Prognostic mortality factors of COVID-19 patients

During the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic, hospital resources, particularly critical care units, were overburdened and this had a significant impact on both the therapies and the prognosis of these patients. This study aimed to identify factors and therapies that may improve prognosis and other factors associated with increased mortality. A secondary objective was to evaluate the impact that obesity had on these patients. An observational study was conducted on 482 patients aged 18 years or older who were diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia and admitted to the Intensive Care Units of 3 national hospitals registered in the CIBERESUCICOVID database between September 2020 and March 2021. After identifying the sample profile, risk factors were analyzed, the predictive model was constructed, and crude odd ratios were calculated for each factor. Additionally, logistic regression was used to build the multivariate model adjusting for potential confounders. The final model included only the variables selected using the Backward method. A sample of 335 men (69.5%) and 145 women (30.08%) aged 61.94 ± 12.75 years with a body mass index (BMI) of 28.05 (25.7; 31.2) was obtained. A total of 113 patients received noninvasive mechanical ventilation. The most common comorbidities were: high blood pressure (51.04%), obesity (28%), diabetes mellitus (23.44%), other metabolic diseases (21.16%), chronic heart failure (18.05%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (11.62%), and chronic kidney disease (10.16%). In-hospital, 3-month and 6-month post-discharge mortality in patients with BMI > 30 (n = 135) versus BMI ≤ 30 (n = 347) was significantly different (P = .06). Noninvasive mechanical ventilation failed in 42.4% of patients with BMI > 30 compared to 55% of patients with BMI ≤ 30. This study identified the factors associated with failure of mechanical ventilation. The most common comorbidities were congestive heart failure, high blood pressure, chronic kidney disease, severe liver disease, diabetes mellitus, and solid organ transplantation. In terms of ventilatory support, patients who received high-flow nasal oxygen therapy on admission had lower mortality rates. The use of renal replacement therapy was also significantly associated with higher mortality.

Semiotics of ICU Physicians' Views on End-of-life Care and Quality of Dying in a Critical Care Setting: A Qualitative Study

Background and aim

While intensive care unit (ICU) mortality rates in India are higher when compared to countries with more resources, fewer patients with clinically futile conditions are subjected to limitation of life-sustaining treatments or given access to palliative care. Although a few surveys and audits have been conducted exploring this phenomenon, the qualitative perspectives of ICU physicians regarding end-of-life care (EOLC) and the quality of dying are yet to be explored.

Methods

There are 22 eligible consultant-level ICU physicians working in multidisciplinary ICUs were purposively recruited and interviewed. The study data was analyzed using reflexive thematic analysis (RTA) with a critical realist perspective, and the study findings were interpreted using the lens of the semiotic theory that facilitated the development of themes.

Results

About four themes were generated. Intensive care unit physicians perceived the quality of dying as respecting patients' and families' choices, fulfilling their needs, providing continued care beyond death, and ensuring family satisfaction. To achieve this, the EOLC process must encompass timely decision-making, communication, treatment guidelines, visitation rights, and trust-building. The contextual challenges were legal concerns, decision-making complexities, cost-related issues, and managing expectations. To improve care, ICU physicians suggested amplifying patient and family voices, building therapeutic relationships, mitigating conflicts, enhancing palliative care services, and training ICU providers in EOLC.

Conclusion

Effective management of critically ill patients with life-limiting illnesses in ICUs requires a holistic approach that considers the complex interplay between the EOLC process, its desired outcome, the quality of dying, care context, and the process of meaning-making by ICU physicians.

How to cite this article

Iyer S, Sonawane RN, Shah J, Salins N. Semiotics of ICU Physicians' Views on End-of-life Care and Quality of Dying in a Critical Care Setting: A Qualitative Study. Indian J Crit Care Med 2024;28(5):424-435.

COVID-19 critical care triage across Canada: a narrative synthesis and ethical analysis of early provincial triage protocols

PURPOSE

The COVID-19 pandemic created conditions of scarcity that led many provinces within Canada to develop triage protocols for critical care resources. In this study, we sought to undertake a narrative synthesis and ethical analysis of early provincial pandemic triage protocols.

METHODS

We collected provincial triage protocols through personal correspondence with academic and political stakeholders between June and August 2020. Protocol data were extracted independently by two researchers and compared for accuracy and agreement. We separated data into three categories for comparative content analysis: protocol development, ethical framework, and protocol content. Our ethical analysis was informed by a procedural justice framework.

RESULTS

We obtained a total of eight provincial triage protocols. Protocols were similar in content, although age, physiologic scores, and functional status were variably incorporated. Most protocols were developed through a multidisciplinary, expert-driven, consensus process, and many were informed by influenza pandemic guidelines previously developed in Ontario. All protocols employed tiered morality-focused exclusion criteria to determine scarce resource allocation at the level of regional health care systems. None included a public engagement phase, although targeted consultation with public advocacy groups and relevant stakeholders was undertaken in select provinces. Most protocols were not publicly available in 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

Early provincial COVID-19 triage protocols were developed by dedicated expert committees under challenging circumstances. Nonetheless, few were publicly available, and public consultation was limited. No protocols were ever implemented, including during periods of extreme critical care surge. A national approach to pandemic triage that incorporates additional aspects of procedural justice should be considered in preparation for future pandemics.

Flow-Sizing Critical Care Resources

OBJECTIVES

To describe the factors affecting critical care capacity and how critical care organizations (CCOs) within academic centers in the U.S. flow-size critical care resources under normal operations, strain, and surge conditions.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, federal agency and American Hospital Association reports, and previous CCO survey results were reviewed.

STUDY SELECTION

Studies and reports of critical care bed capacity and utilization within CCOs and in the United States were selected.

DATA EXTRACTION

The Academic Leaders in the Critical Care Medicine Task Force established regular conference calls to reach a consensus on the approach of CCOs to "flow-sizing" critical care services.

DATA SYNTHESIS

The approach of CCOs to "flow-sizing" critical care is outlined. The vertical (relation to institutional resources, e.g., space allocation, equipment, personnel redistribution) and horizontal (interdepartmental, e.g., emergency department, operating room, inpatient floors) integration of critical care delivery (ICUs, rapid response) for healthcare organizations and the methods by which CCOs flow-size critical care during normal operations, strain, and surge conditions are described. The advantages, barriers, and recommendations for the rapid and efficient scaling of critical care operations via a CCO structure are explained. Comprehensive guidance and resources for the development of "flow-sizing" capability by a CCO within a healthcare organization are provided.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified and summarized the fundamental principles affecting critical care capacity. The taskforce highlighted the advantages of the CCO governance model to achieve rapid and cost-effective "flow-sizing" of critical care services and provide recommendations and resources to facilitate this capability. The relevance of a comprehensive approach to "flow-sizing" has become particularly relevant in the wake of the latest COVID-19 pandemic. In light of the growing risks of another extreme epidemic, planning for adequate capacity to confront the next critical care crisis is urgent.

Improved performance of an intensive care unit after changing the admission triage model

The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of implementing a prioritization triage model for admission to an intensive care unit on the outcome of critically ill patients. Retrospective longitudinal study of adult patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) carried out from January 2013 to December 2017. The primary outcome considered was vital status at hospital discharge. Patients were divided into period 1 (chronological triage) during the years 2013 and 2014 and period 2 (prioritization triage) during the years 2015-2017. A total of 1227 patients in period 1 and 2056 in period 2 were analyzed. Patients admitted in period 2 were older (59.8 years) compared to period 1 (57.3 years; p < 0.001) with less chronic diseases (13.6% vs. 19.2%; p = 0.001), and higher median APACHE II score (21.0 vs. 18.0; p < 0.001)) and TISS 28 score (28.0 vs. 27.0; p < 0.001). In period 2, patients tended to stay in the ICU for a shorter time (8.5 ± 11.8 days) compared to period 1 (9.6 ± 16.0 days; p = 0.060) and had lower mortality at ICU (32.8% vs. 36.9%; p = 0.016) and hospital discharge (44.2% vs. 47.8%; p = 0.041). The change in the triage model from a chronological model to a prioritization model resulted in improvement in the performance of the ICU and reduction in the hospital mortality rate.

Ethical Management of COVID-19 Pandemic at a Neurological Hospital: The Ethicovid Report

BACKGROUND

During the first wave of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, it was necessary to prepare for the possibility of triaging patients who could benefit from access to an intensive care unit (ICU). In our neuroscience institution, the challenge was to continue to manage usual neurological emergencies as well as the influx of COVID-19 patients.

METHODS

We report the experience of an ethical consulting unit to support care clinical decisions during the first wave of the pandemic (March 16 to April 30, 2020). Three objective evaluation criteria were defined: 2 of these criteria, patient's factors and general disease severity (Simplified Acute Physiology Score II), were common to all patients, and the third was the specific severity of the disease (neurological for brain injury, respiratory for COVID-19). Given our scarce resources, we used a high probability of a 3-month modified Rankin Scale ≤3 as the criterion for further resuscitation and management.

RESULTS

A total of 295 patients were admitted during the first pandemic wave; 111 with COVID-19 and 184 with neurological emergencies. The ethical unit's expertise was sought for 75 clinical situations in 56 patients (35 COVID-19 and 21 neurological). Decisions were as follows: 11% no limitation on care, 5% expectant care with reassessment (maximum therapy to assess possible progress pending decision), 67% partial limitation (no intensification of care or no transfer to ICU), and 17% limitation of curative care. At no time did a lack of availability of ICU beds require the ethical unit to advise against admission to the ICU.

CONCLUSIONS

Our ethical consulting unit allowed for collegial ethical decision-making in line with international recommendations. This model could be easily transferred to other triage situations, provided it is adapted to the local context.

[Analysis of characteristics of elderly patients admitted to an intensive care unit during six waves of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: Implications for medical care]

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the characteristics of seriously ill elderly patients during the six waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHOD

Retrospective, observational and analytical study of patients over 70 years of age admitted to the ICU (March-2020 to March-2022). Patients were categorized into three groups based on age: 70-74 years; 75-79 years; and >80 years. A descriptive and comparative analysis of the sample was initially performed; and a 28-, 60- and 90-day survival analysis using the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate survival analysis was performed by fitting a Cox model.

RESULTS

Of 301 patients, the lowest number of admissions occurred during the first wave (20 (6%)), compared to the wave with the highest number of admissions: the sixth wave (76 (25%)). The survival curves at 28 days, 60 days and 90 days showed a higher probability of survival in the younger age groups (P<.01 and P=.01, respectively). Troponin at admission (per unit, ng/l) showed a significant association with 28- and 60-day mortality (HR: 1.00; 95% CI: 1.00-1.01; P<.05). Taking the 1st wave of the pandemic as a reference, admission in the 3rd wave behaved as a protective factor against mortality at 28 and 60 days of follow-up (HR: 0.18; 95% CI: 0.02-0.64; P<.05; HR: 0.13; 95% CI: 0.02-0.64; P<.05, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The time of admission and biomarkers, such as troponin, constitute prognostic markers independent of age in the elderly population.

Who to escalate during a pandemic? A retrospective observational study about decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK

BACKGROUND

Optimal decision-making regarding who to admit to critical care in pandemic situations remains unclear. We compared age, Clinical Frailty Score (CFS), 4C Mortality Score and hospital mortality in two separate COVID-19 surges based on the escalation decision made by the treating physician.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of all referrals to critical care during the first COVID-19 surge (cohort 1, March/April 2020) and a late surge (cohort 2, October/November 2021) was undertaken. Patients with confirmed or high clinical suspicion of COVID-19 infection were included. A senior critical care physician assessed all patients regarding their suitability for potential intensive care unit admission. Demographics, CFS, 4C Mortality Score and hospital mortality were compared depending on the escalation decision made by the attending physician.

RESULTS

203 patients were included in the study, 139 in cohort 1 and 64 in cohort 2. There were no significant differences in age, CFS and 4C scores between the two cohorts. Patients deemed suitable for escalation by clinicians were significantly younger with significantly lower CFS and 4C scores compared with patients who were not deemed to benefit from escalation. This pattern was observed in both cohorts. Mortality in patients not deemed suitable for escalation was 61.8% in cohort 1 and 47.4% in cohort 2 (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Decisions who to escalate to critical care in settings with limited resources pose moral distress on clinicians. 4C score, age and CFS did not change significantly between the two surges but differed significantly between patients deemed suitable for escalation and those deemed unsuitable by clinicians. Risk prediction tools may be useful in a pandemic to supplement clinical decision-making, even though escalation thresholds require adjustments to reflect changes in risk profile and outcomes between different pandemic surges.

Surgical Science and the Evolution of Critical Care Medicine

Surgical science has driven innovation and inquiry across adult and pediatric disciplines that provide critical care regardless of location. Surgically originated but broadly applicable knowledge has been globally shared within the pages Critical Care Medicine over the last 50 years.

Quality of Life in COVID-Related ARDS Patients One Year after Intensive Care Discharge (Odissea Study): A Multicenter Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Investigating the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) after intensive care unit (ICU) discharge is necessary to identify possible modifiable risk factors. The primary aim of this study was to investigate the HRQoL in COVID-19 critically ill patients one year after ICU discharge.

METHODS

In this multicenter prospective observational study, COVID-19 patients admitted to nine ICUs from 1 March 2020 to 28 February 2021 in Italy were enrolled. One year after ICU discharge, patients were required to fill in short-form health survey 36 (SF-36) and impact of event-revised (IES-R) questionnaire. A multivariate linear or logistic regression analysis to search for factors associated with a lower HRQoL and post-traumatic stress disorded (PTSD) were carried out, respectively.

RESULTS

Among 1003 patients screened, 343 (median age 63 years [57-70]) were enrolled. Mechanical ventilation lasted for a median of 10 days [2-20]. Physical functioning (PF 85 [60-95]), physical role (PR 75 [0-100]), emotional role (RE 100 [33-100]), bodily pain (BP 77.5 [45-100]), social functioning (SF 75 [50-100]), general health (GH 55 [35-72]), vitality (VT 55 [40-70]), mental health (MH 68 [52-84]) and health change (HC 50 [25-75]) describe the SF-36 items. A median physical component summary (PCS) and mental component summary (MCS) scores were 45.9 (36.5-53.5) and 51.7 (48.8-54.3), respectively, considering 50 as the normal value of the healthy general population. In all, 109 patients (31.8%) tested positive for post-traumatic stress disorder, also reporting a significantly worse HRQoL in all SF-36 domains. The female gender, history of cardiovascular disease, liver disease and length of hospital stay negatively affected the HRQoL. Weight at follow-up was a risk factor for PTSD (OR 1.02, p = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

The HRQoL in COVID-19 ARDS (C-ARDS) patients was reduced regarding the PCS, while the median MCS value was slightly above normal. Some risk factors for a lower HRQoL have been identified, the presence of PTSD is one of them. Further research is warranted to better identify the possible factors affecting the HRQoL in C-ARDS.

Validation of a pre-established triage protocol for critically ill patients in a COVID-19 outbreak under resource scarcity: A retrospective multicenter cohort study

INTRODUCTION

In case of COVID-19 related scarcity of critical care resources, an early French triage algorithm categorized critically ill patients by probability of survival based on medical history and severity, with four priority levels for initiation or continuation of critical care: P1 -high priority, P2 -intermediate priority, P3 -not needed, P4 -not appropriate. This retrospective multi-center study aimed to assess its classification performance and its ability to help saving lives under capacity saturation.

METHODS

ICU patients admitted for severe COVID-19 without triage in spring 2020 were retrospectively included from three hospitals. Demographic data, medical history and severity items were collected. Priority levels were retrospectively allocated at ICU admission and on ICU day 7-10. Mortality rate, cumulative incidence of death and of alive ICU discharge, length of ICU stay and of mechanical ventilation were compared between priority levels. Calculated mortality and survival were compared between full simulated triage and no triage.

RESULTS

225 patients were included, aged 63.1±11.9 years. Median SAPS2 was 40 (IQR 29-49). At the end of follow-up, 61 (27%) had died, 26 were still in ICU, and 138 had been discharged. Following retrospective initial priority allocation, mortality rate was 53% among P4 patients (95CI 34-72%) versus 23% among all P1 to P3 patients (95CI 17-30%, chi-squared p = 5.2e-4). The cumulative incidence of death consistently increased in the order P3, P1, P2 and P4 both at admission (Gray's test p = 3.1e-5) and at reassessment (p = 8e-5), and conversely for that of alive ICU discharge. Reassessment strengthened consistency. Simulation under saturation showed that this two-step triage protocol could have saved 28 to 40 more lives than no triage.

CONCLUSION

Although it cannot eliminate potentially avoidable deaths, this triage protocol proved able to adequately prioritize critical care for patients with highest probability of survival, hence to save more lives if applied.

Catastrophic COVID-19 Delta Variant Surge in French West Indies: Report of an ICU Triage Policy

OBJECTIVES

Here, we report the management of a catastrophic COVID-19 Delta variant surge, which overloaded ICU capacity, using crisis standards of care (CSC) based on a multiapproach protocol.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study.

SETTING

University Hospital of Guadeloupe.

PATIENTS

This study retrospectively included all patients who were hospitalized for COVID-19 pneumonia between August 11, 2021, and September 10, 2021, and were eligible for ICU admission.

INTERVENTION

Based on age, comorbidities, and disease severity, patients were assigned to three groups: Green (ICU admission as soon as possible), Orange (ICU admission after the admission of all patients in the Green group), and Red (no ICU admission).

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Among the 328 patients eligible for ICU admission, 100 (30%) were assigned to the Green group, 116 (35%) to the Orange group, and 112 (34%) to the Red group. No patient in the Green group died while waiting for an ICU bed, whereas 14 patients (12%) in the Orange group died while waiting for an ICU bed. The 90-day mortality rates were 24%, 37%, and 78% in the Green, Orange, and Red groups, respectively. A total of 130 patients were transferred to the ICU, including 79 from the Green group, 51 from the Orange group, and none from the Red group. Multivariate analysis revealed that among patients admitted to the ICU, death was independently associated with a longer time between ICU referral and ICU admission, the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, and the number of comorbidities, but not with triage group.

CONCLUSIONS

CSC based on a multiapproach protocol allowed admission of all patients with a good prognosis. Higher mortality was associated with late admission, rather than triage group.

Preparing for the Worst-Case Scenario in a Pandemic: Intensivists Simulate Prioritization and Triage of Scarce ICU Resources

OBJECTIVES

Simulation and evaluation of a prioritization protocol at a German university hospital using a convergent parallel mixed methods design.

DESIGN

Prospective single-center cohort study with a quantitative analysis of ICU patients and qualitative content analysis of two focus groups with intensivists.

SETTING

Five ICUs of internal medicine and anesthesiology at a German university hospital.

PATIENTS

Adult critically ill ICU patients ( n = 53).

INTERVENTIONS

After training the attending senior ICU physicians ( n = 13) in rationing, an impending ICU congestion was simulated. All ICU patients were rated according to their likelihood to survive their acute illness (good-moderate-unfavorable). From each ICU, the two patients with the most unfavorable prognosis ( n = 10) were evaluated by five prioritization teams for triage.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Patients nominated for prioritization visit ( n = 10) had higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores and already a longer stay at the hospital and on the ICU compared with the other patients. The order within this worst prognosis group was not congruent between the five teams. However, an in-hospital mortality of 80% confirmed the reasonable match with the lowest predicted probability of survival. Qualitative data highlighted the tremendous burden of triage and the need for a team-based consensus-oriented decision-making approach to ensure best possible care and to support professionals. Transparent communication within the teams, the hospital, and to the public was seen as essential for prioritization implementation.

CONCLUSIONS

To mitigate potential bias and to reduce the emotional burden of triage, a consensus-oriented, interdisciplinary, and collaborative approach should be implemented. Prognostic comparative assessment by intensivists is feasible. The combination of long-term ICU stay and consistently high Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores resulted in a greater risk for triage in patients. It remains challenging to reliably differentiate between patients with very low chances to survive and requires further conceptual and empirical research.

In-hospital mortality prediction using frailty scale and severity score in elderly patients with severe COVID-19

Background

Elderly patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have a high disease severity and mortality. However, the use of the frailty scale and severity score to predict in-hospital mortality in the elderly is not well established. Therefore, in this study, we investigated the use of these scores in COVID-19 cases in the elderly.

Methods

This multicenter retrospective study included severe COVID-19 patients admitted to seven hospitals in Korea from February 2020 to February 2021. We evaluated patients’ Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score; confusion, urea nitrogen, respiratory rate, blood pressure, 65 years of age and older (CURB-65) score; modified early warning score (MEWS); Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score; clinical frailty scale (CFS) score; and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI). We evaluated the predictive value using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

Results

The study included 318 elderly patients with severe COVID-19 of whom 237 (74.5%) were survivors and 81 (25.5%) were non-survivors. The non-survivor group was older and had more comorbidities than the survivor group. The CFS, CCI, APACHE II, SOFA, CURB-65, and MEWS scores were higher in the non-survivor group than in the survivor group. When analyzed using the ROC curve, SOFA score showed the best performance in predicting the prognosis of elderly patients (area under the curve=0.766, P<0.001). CFS and SOFA scores were associated with in-hospital mortality in the multivariate analysis.

Conclusions

The SOFA score is an efficient tool for assessing in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with severe COVID-19.

Attitudes of health professionals toward elderly patients during the COVID-19 pandemic

The perceptions and attitudes of health professionals toward a certain group of society are among the factors affecting the quality of health service. This study aimed to investigate the attitudes of physicians and nurses about ageism in the COVID-19 pandemic. An easy face-to-face survey was used to collect the data. It involves the questions about demographic information and geriatric perspectives, and they were taken from the University of California at Los Angeles Geriatrics Attitudes Scale (UCLA-GAS). In the study, 58.1% of participants were over 35 years old, 76.6% were women, and 50% were physicians out of 308 in total. It was found that most of the participants have worked in inpatient services and intensive care units for the longest time, where the triage issue was the most discussed topic during the pandemic. An average of 75% of the participants stated that they did not witness any ageist attitude in health care provided. In the comparative analyses conducted with the UCLA-GAS sub-dimensions, statistically significant results, which were anti-ageist and prioritized human life, were obtained. In the extraordinary periods such as pandemic, especially physicians should be able to give the treatment without feeling any social or legal concerns during their medical applications with the light of guidelines accepted scientifically, legally, and morally. Thus, health professionals will not only be away from legal concerns such as malpractice but also will not be exhausted mentally and they can provide more sufficient health service by working under these conditions.

Who gets the ventilator? A multicentre survey of intensivists' opinions of triage during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a shortage of intensive care resources. Intensivists' opinion of triage and ventilator allocation during the COVID-19 pandemic is not well described.

METHODS

This was a survey concerning patient numbers, bed capacity, triage guidelines, and three virtual cases involving ventilator allocations. Physicians from 400 ICUs in a research network were invited to participate. Preferences were assessed with a five-point Likert scale. Additionally, age, gender, work experience, geography, and religion were recorded.

RESULTS

Of 437 responders 31% were female. The mean age was 44.4 (SD 11.1) with a mean ICU experience of 13.7 (SD 10.5) years. Respondents were mostly European (88%). Sixty-six percent had triage guidelines available. Younger patients and caretakers of children were favoured for ventilator allocation although this was less clear if this involved withdrawal of the ventilator from another patient. Decisions did not differ with ICU experience, gender, religion, or guideline availability. Consultation of colleagues or an ethical committee decreased with age and male gender.

CONCLUSION

Intensivists appeared to prioritise younger patients for ventilator allocation. The tendency to consult colleagues about triage decreased with age and male gender. Many found such tasks to be not purely medical and that authorities should assume responsibility for triage during resource scarcity.

Caring for older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

Elderly patients represent a high-risk group with increased risk of death from COVID-19. Despite the number of published studies, several unmet needs in care for older adults exist.

OBJECTIVES

To discuss unmet needs of COVID-19 in this special population.

SOURCES

A literature review for studies on COVID-19 in elderly patients published between December 2019 and November 2021 was performed. Clinical questions were formulated to guide the literature search. The search was conducted in the MEDLINE database, combining specific search terms. Two reviewers independently conducted the search and selected the studies according to the prespecified clinical questions.

CONTENT

Elderly patients with COVID-19 have peculiar characteristics. They may have atypical clinical presentation, with no fever and with delirium or neurological manifestations as the most common signs, with potential delayed diagnosis and increased risk of death. The reported fatality rates among elderly patients with COVID-19 are extremely high. Several factors, including comorbidities, atypical presentation, and exclusion from intensive care unit care, contribute to this excess of mortality. Age alone is frequently used as a key factor to exclude the elderly from intensive care, but there is evidence that frailty rather than age better predicts the risk of poor outcome in this category. Durability of vaccine efficacy in the elderly remains debated, and the need for a third booster dose is becoming increasingly evident. Finally, efforts to care for elderly patients who have survived after acute COVID-19 should be implemented, considering the high rates of long COVID sequelae and the risk of longitudinal functional and cognitive decline.

IMPLICATIONS

We highlight peculiar aspects of COVID-19 in elderly patients and factors contributing to high risk of poor outcome in this category. We also illuminated gaps in current evidence, suggesting future research directions and underlining the need for further studies on the optimal management of elderly patients with COVID-19.

Effectiveness of Intermediate Respiratory Care Units as an Alternative to Intensive Care Units during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Catalonia

Objectives: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the risk of collapse for the health system created great difficulties. We will demonstrate that intermediate respiratory care units (IRCU) provide adequate management of patients with non-invasive respiratory support, which is particularly important for patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. Methods: A prospective observational study of patients with COVID-19 admitted to the ICU of a tertiary hospital. Sociodemographic data, comorbidities, pharmacological, respiratory support, laboratory and blood gas variables were collected. The overall cost of the unit was subsequently analyzed. Results: 991 patients were admitted, 56 to the IRCU (from a of 81 admitted to the critical care unit). Mean age was 65 years (SD 12.8), Barthel index 75 (SD 8.3), Charlson comorbidity index 3.1 (SD 2.2), HTN 27%, COPD 89% and obesity 24%. A significant relationship (p < 0.05) with higher mortality was noted for the following parameters: fever greater than or equal to 39 °C [OR 5.6; 95% CI (1.2−2.7); p = 0.020], protocolized pharmacological treatment [OR 0.3; 95% CI (0.1−0.9); p = 0.023] and IOI [OR 3.7; 95% CI (1.1−12.3); p = 0.025]. NIMV had less of a negative impact [OR 1.8; 95% CI (0.4−8.4); p = 0.423] than IOI. The total cost of the IRCU amounted to €66,233. The cost per day of stay in the IRCU was €164 per patient. The total cost avoided was €214,865. Conclusions: The pandemic has highlighted the importance of IRCUs in facilitating the management of a high patient volume. The treatment carried out in IRCUs is effective and efficient, reducing both admissions to and stays in the ICU.

Ethical Lessons from an Intensivist's Perspective

Intensive care units (ICUs) around the world have been hugely impacted by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and the vast numbers of patients admitted with COVID-19, requiring respiratory support and prolonged stays. This pressure, with resulting shortages of ICU beds, equipment, and staff has raised ethical dilemmas as physicians have had to determine how best to allocate the sparse resources. Here, we reflect on some of the major ethical aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including resource allocation and rationing, end-of-life decision-making, and communication and staff support. Importantly, these issues are regularly faced in non-pandemic ICU patient management and useful lessons can be learned from the discussions that have occurred as a result of the COVID-19 situation.

Assessment of a Crisis Standards of Care Scoring System for Resource Prioritization and Estimated Excess Mortality by Race, Ethnicity, and Socially Vulnerable Area During a Regional Surge in COVID-19

IMPORTANCE

Crisis standards of care (CSOC) scores designed to allocate scarce resources during the COVID-19 pandemic could exacerbate racial disparities in health care.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the association of a CSOC scoring system with resource prioritization and estimated excess mortality by race, ethnicity, and residence in a socially vulnerable area.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This retrospective cohort analysis included adult patients in the intensive care unit during a regional COVID-19 surge from April 13 to May 22, 2020, at 6 hospitals in a health care network in greater Boston, Massachusetts. Participants were scored by acute severity of illness using the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and chronic severity of illness using comorbidity and life expectancy scores, and only participants with complete scores were included. The score was ordinal, with cutoff points suggested by the Massachusetts guidelines.

EXPOSURES

Race, ethnicity, Social Vulnerability Index.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was proportion of patients in the lowest priority score category stratified by self-reported race. Secondary outcomes were discrimination and calibration of the score overall and by race, ethnicity, and neighborhood Social Vulnerability Index. Projected excess deaths were modeled by race, using the priority scoring system and a random lottery.

RESULTS

Of 608 patients in the intensive care unit during the study period, 498 had complete data and were included in the analysis; this population had a median (IQR) age of 67 (56-75) years, 191 (38.4%) female participants, 79 (15.9%) Black participants, and 225 patients (45.7%) with COVID-19. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the priority score was 0.79 and was similar across racial groups. Black patients were more likely than others to be in the lowest priority group (12 [15.2%] vs 34 [8.1%]; P = .046). In an exploratory simulation model using the score for ventilator allocation, with only those in the highest priority group receiving ventilators, there were 43.9% excess deaths among Black patients (18 of 41 patients) and 28.6% (58 of 203 patients among all others (P = .05); when the highest and intermediate priority groups received ventilators, there were 4.9% (2 of 41 patients) excess deaths among Black patients and 3.0% (6 of 203) among all others (P = .53). A random lottery resulted in more excess deaths than the score.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, a CSOC priority score resulted in lower prioritization of Black patients to receive scarce resources. A model using a random lottery resulted in more estimated excess deaths overall without improving equity by race. CSOC policies must be evaluated for their potential association with racial disparities in health care.

Adverse Perinatal Outcomes in COVID-19 Infected Pregnant Women: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The impact of COVID-19 virus infection during pregnancy is still unclear. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to quantitatively pool the evidence on impact of COVID-19 infection on perinatal outcomes. Databases of Medline, Embase, and Cochrane library were searched using the keywords related to COVID-19 and perinatal outcomes from December 2019 to 30 June 2021. Observational studies comparing the perinatal outcomes of COVID-19 infection in pregnancy with a non-infected comparator were included. The screening process and quality assessment of the included studies were performed independently by two reviewers. Meta-analyses were used to pool the comparative dichotomous data on perinatal outcomes. The database search yielded 4049 results, 1254 of which were duplicates. We included a total of 21 observational studies that assessed the adverse perinatal outcomes with COVID-19 infection. The odds of maternal death (pooled OR: 7.05 [2.41−20.65]), preeclampsia (pooled OR: 1.39 [1.29−1.50]), cesarean delivery (pooled OR: 1.67 [1.29−2.15]), fetal distress (pooled OR: 1.66 [1.35−2.05]), preterm birth (pooled OR: 1.86 [1.34−2.58]), low birth weight (pooled OR: 1.69 [1.35−2.11]), stillbirth (pooled OR: 1.46 [1.16−1.85]), 5th minute Apgar score of less than 7 (pooled OR: 1.44 [1.11−1.86]) and admissions to neonatal intensive care unit (pooled OR: 2.12 [1.36−3.32]) were higher among COVID-19 infected pregnant women compared to non-infected pregnant women.

Remdesivir and dexamethasone as tools to relieve hospital care systems stressed by COVID-19: A modelling study on bed resources and budget impact

Remdesivir and dexamethasone are the only drugs providing reductions in the lengths of hospital stays for COVID-19 patients. We assessed the impacts of remdesivir on hospital-bed resources and budgets affected by the COVID-19 outbreak. A stochastic agent-based model was combined with epidemiological data available on the COVID-19 outbreak in France and data from two randomized control trials. Strategies involving treating with remdesivir only patients with low-flow oxygen and patients with low-flow and high-flow oxygen were examined. Treating all eligible low-flow oxygen patients during the entirety of the second wave would have decreased hospital-bed occupancy in conventional wards by 4% [2%; 7%] and intensive care unit (ICU)-bed occupancy by 9% [6%; 13%]. Extending remdesivir use to high-flow-oxygen patients would have amplified reductions in ICU-bed occupancy by up to 14% [18%; 11%]. A minimum remdesivir uptake of 20% was required to observe decreases in bed occupancy. Dexamethasone had effects of similar amplitude. Depending on the treatment strategy, using remdesivir would, in most cases, generate savings (up to 722€) or at least be cost neutral (an extra cost of 34€). Treating eligible patients could significantly limit the saturation of hospital capacities, particularly in ICUs. The generated savings would exceed the costs of medications.

Public Opinion on Priorities Toward Fair Allocation of Ventilators During COVID-19 Pandemic: A Nationwide Survey

Background: The rapidly growing imbalance between supply and demand for ventilators during the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the principles for fair allocation of scarce resources. Failing to address public views and concerns on the subject could fuel distrust. The objective of this study was to determine the priorities of the Iranian public toward the fair allocation of ventilators during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: This anonymous community-based national study was conducted from May 28 to Aug 20, 2020, in Iran. Data were collected via the Google Forms platform, using an online self-administrative questionnaire. The questionnaire assessed participants' assigned prioritization scores for ventilators based on medical and non-medical criteria. To quantify participants' responses on prioritizing ventilator allocation among sub-groups of patients with COVID-19 who need mechanical ventilation scores ranging from -2, very low priority, to +2, very high priority were assigned to each response. Results: Responses of 2,043 participants, 1,189 women, and 1,012 men, were analyzed. The mean (SD) age was 31.1 (9.5), being 32.1 (9.3) among women, and 29.9 (9.6) among men. Among all participants, 274 (13.4%) were healthcare workers. The median of assigned priority score was zero (equal) for gender, age 41-80, nationality, religion, socioeconomic, high-profile governmental position, high-profile occupation, being celebrities, employment status, smoking status, drug abuse, end-stage status, and obesity. The median assigned priority score was +2 (very high priority) for pregnancy, and having <2 years old children. The median assigned priority score was +1 (high priority) for physicians and nurses of patients with COVID-19, patients with nobel research position, those aged <40 years, those with underlying disease, immunocompromise status, and malignancy. Age>80 was the only factor participants assigned -1 (low priority) to. Conclusions: Participants stated that socioeconomic factors, except for age>80, should not be involved in prioritizing mechanical ventilators at the time of resources scarcity. Front-line physicians and nurses of COVID-19 patients, pregnant mothers, mothers who had children under 2 years old were given high priority.

CHALLENGES AT THE FRONT: EXPERIENCES OF PROFESSIONALS IN ADMITTING PATIENTS TO THE INTENSIVE CARE UNIT DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

ABSTRACT Objective: to know the perspectives, practices and challenges in decision-making for admitting patients into the Intensive Care Unit during the Covid-19 pandemic. Methods: a qualitative study developed in two public hospitals in Maranhão, Brazil, from November/2020 to January/2021. Data collection took place through individual interviews guided by a script. A total of 22 professionals participated in the study: nurses and doctors who worked in the Intensive Care Unit and Bed Regulation in the first wave of the pandemic. Content Analysis was used in the thematic mode, with support from the Qualitative Data Analysis software program for data categorization. The theory of Responsibility for Reasonableness guided the study. Results: two main categories emerged: “The context of the decision-making process - the paradox of celestial discharges” and “Decision-making for admission”. In the scenario of high demand, a lack of beds, and the uncertainties of the “new disease”, deciding who would occupy the bed was arduous and conflicting. Clinical and non-clinical criteria such as severity, chance of survival, distance to be covered and transport conditions were considered. It was found that the ambivalence of feelings attributed to death and care at that moment of the pandemic marked the social and technical environment of intensive care. Conclusions: the complexity of the decision-making process for admission to an intensive care unit was evidenced, demonstrating the importance of analyzing the allocation of critical resources in pandemic scenarios. Knowing the perspectives of professionals and their reflections on the experiences in that period can help in planning the allocation of health resources in future emergency scenarios.

Does COVID-19 Clinical Status Associate with Outcome Severity? An Unsupervised Machine Learning Approach for Knowledge Extraction

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, 195 million people have been infected and 4.2 million have died from the disease or its side effects. Physicians, healthcare scientists and medical staff continuously try to deal with overloaded hospital admissions, while in parallel, they try to identify meaningful correlations between the severity of infected patients with their symptoms, comorbidities and biomarkers. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have been used recently in many areas related to COVID-19 healthcare. The main goal is to manage effectively the wide variety of issues related to COVID-19 and its consequences. The existing applications of ML to COVID-19 healthcare are based on supervised classifications which require a labeled training dataset, serving as reference point for learning, as well as predefined classes. However, the existing knowledge about COVID-19 and its consequences is still not solid and the points of common agreement among different scientific communities are still unclear. Therefore, this study aimed to follow an unsupervised clustering approach, where prior knowledge is not required (tabula rasa). More specifically, 268 hospitalized patients at the First Propaedeutic Department of Internal Medicine of AHEPA University Hospital of Thessaloniki were assessed in terms of 40 clinical variables (numerical and categorical), leading to a high-dimensionality dataset. Dimensionality reduction was performed by applying a principal component analysis (PCA) on the numerical part of the dataset and a multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) on the categorical part of the dataset. Then, the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) was applied to Gaussian mixture models (GMM) in order to identify the optimal number of clusters under which the best grouping of patients occurs. The proposed methodology identified four clusters of patients with similar clinical characteristics. The analysis revealed a cluster of asymptomatic patients that resulted in death at a rate of 23.8%. This striking result forces us to reconsider the relationship between the severity of COVID-19 clinical symptoms and the patient's mortality.

Comparison of outcome and characteristics between 6343 COVID-19 patients and 2256 other community-acquired viral pneumonia patients admitted to Dutch ICUs

Purpose

Describe the differences in characteristics and outcomes between COVID-19 and other viral pneumonia patients admitted to Dutch ICUs.

Materials and methods

Data from the National-Intensive-Care-Evaluation-registry of COVID-19 patients admitted between February 15th and January 1th 2021 and other viral pneumonia patients admitted between January 1st 2017 and January 1st 2020 were used. Patients' characteristics, the unadjusted, and adjusted in-hospital mortality were compared.

Results

6343 COVID-19 and 2256 other viral pneumonia patients from 79 ICUs were included. The COVID-19 patients included more male (71.3 vs 49.8%), had a higher Body-Mass-Index (28.1 vs 25.5), less comorbidities (42.2 vs 72.7%), and a prolonged hospital length of stay (19 vs 9 days). The COVID-19 patients had a significantly higher crude in-hospital mortality rate (Odds ratio (OR) = 1.80), after adjustment for patient characteristics and ICU occupancy rate the OR was respectively 3.62 and 3.58.

Conclusion

Higher mortality among COVID-19 patients could not be explained by patient characteristics and higher ICU occupancy rates, indicating that COVID-19 is more severe compared to other viral pneumonia. Our findings confirm earlier warnings of a high need of ICU capacity and high mortality rates among relatively healthy COVID-19 patients as this may lead to a higher mental workload for the staff.

The Ethical Unjustifications of COVID-19 Triage Committees

The ever-debated question of triage and allocating the life-saving ventilator during the COVID-19 pandemic has been repeatedly raised and challenged within the ethical community after shortages propelled doctors before life and death decisions (Anderson-Shaw and Zar 2020; Huxtable 2020; Jongepier 2020; Peterson, Largent, and Karlawish 2020). The British Medical Association's ethical guidance highlighted the possibility of an initial surge of patients that would outstrip the health system's ability to deliver care "to existing standards," where utilitarian measures have to be applied, and triage decisions need to maximize "overall benefit" (British Medical Association 2020, 3) In these emergency circumstances, triage that "grades according to their needs and the probable outcomes of intervention" will prioritize or eliminate patients for treatment, and health professionals may be faced with obligations to withhold or withdraw treatments to some patients in favour of others (British Medical Association 2020, 4). This piece is a response and extension to articles published on the manner of involvement for ethics and ethicists in pandemic triage decisions, particularly examining the ability and necessity of establishing triage committees to ameliorate scarce allocation decisions for physicians.

Associations of Government-issued ICU Admission Criteria with Clinical Practices, Outcomes, and ICU Bed Occupancy

RATIONALE

In Japan, the government officially issued intensive care unit (ICU) admission criteria that require ICU units to admit patients who need a certain level of monitoring and procedures to ensure their reimbursement for ICU costs from April 2014.

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether the newly issued health policy on ICU admission criteria based on financial incentives for monitoring and procedures had any impact on clinical practices, outcomes, and ICU bed occupancy.

METHODS

Using a nationwide inpatient health claims database in Japan, we identified patients who were admitted to the ICU from April 2012 to March 2018. Outcomes were monitoring and procedures in the ICU, clinical outcomes, and ICU bed occupancy. The outcomes of monitoring and procedures and clinical outcomes were adjusted for patient characteristics. Interrupted time-series analyses were used to compare the trends in outcomes for two separate periods before and after the issue of the new health policy on ICU admission criteria in April 2014.

RESULTS

A total of 1,660,601 patients in 259 ICU-equipped hospitals were eligible. There were significant upward slope changes between the pre- and post-issue periods for all monitoring and procedures in the ICU, including invasive arterial pressure monitoring (5.62% change in trend per year; 95% CI, 4.75%-6.49%) and central venous pressure monitoring (1.22% change in trend per year; 95% CI, 0.78%-1.67%). There was no significant slope change between the pre- and post-issue periods for in-hospital mortality, but there were significant upward slope changes for complications of pneumonia (0.27% change in trend per year; 95% CI, 0.14%-0.39%) and catheter-related bloodstream infection (0.02% change in trend per year; 95% CI, 0.00%-0.14%). There were also significant upward slope changes in length of hospital stay, length of ICU stay, and hospitalization costs between the pre- and post-issue periods. There was no significant slope change between the pre- and post-issue periods for ICU bed occupancy.

CONCLUSIONS

The health policy on ICU admission criteria based on financial incentives for actions taken by providers was associated with increased monitoring and procedures, complications, lengths of hospital and ICU stay, and hospitalization costs without decreasing ICU bed occupancy.

What have we learned from the first to the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic? An international survey from the ESCMID Study Group for Infection in the Elderly (ESGIE) group

The purpose of this survey is to explore changes in the management of COVID-19 during the first versus the second wave, with particular emphasis on therapies, antibiotic prescriptions, and elderly care. An internet-based questionnaire survey was distributed to European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID) members. Therapeutic approach to patients with mild-to-moderate (PiO₂/FiO₂ 200–350) and severe (PiO₂/FiO₂ < 200) COVID-19, antibiotic use, and reasons for excluding patients from the intensive care unit (ICU) were investigated. A total of 463 from 21 countries participated in the study. Most representatives were infectious disease specialists (68.3%). During the second wave of pandemic, physicians abandoned the use of hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir/ritonavir, and azithromycin in favor of dexamethasone, low-molecular weight heparin (LMWH), and remdesivir in mild-to-moderate COVID-19. In critically ill patients, we detected an increased use of high-dose steroids (51%) and a decrease in tocilizumab use. The use of antibiotics at hospital admission decreased but remained high in the second wave. Age was reported to be a main consideration for exclusion of patients from ICU care by 25% of responders; a third reported that elderly were not candidates for ICU admission in their center. The decision to exclude patients from ICU care was based on the individual decision of an intensivist in 59.6% of cases. The approach of physicians to COVID-19 changed over time following evidence accumulation and guidelines. Antibiotic use at hospital admission and decision to exclude patients from ICU care remain critical aspects that should be better investigated and harmonized among clinicians.

A Retrospective Cohort Study of Clinical Factors Associated with Transitions of Care among COVID-19 Patients

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an international health crisis. In this article, we report on patient characteristics associated with care transitions of: 1) hospital admission from the emergency department (ED) and 2) escalation to the intensive care unit (ICU). Analysis of data from the electronic medical record (EMR) was performed for patients with COVID-19 seen in the ED of a large Western U.S. Health System from April to August of 2020, totaling 10,079 encounters. Of these, 5172 resulted in admission as an inpatient within 72 h. Inpatient encounters (n = 6079) were also considered for patients with positive COVID-19 test results, of which 970 resulted in a transfer to the ICU or in-hospital mortality. Laboratory results, vital signs, symptoms, and comorbidities were investigated for each of these care transitions. Different top risk factors were found, but two factors common to hospital admission and ICU transfer were respiratory rate and the need for oxygen support. Comorbidities common to both settings were cerebrovascular disease and congestive heart failure. Regarding laboratory results, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio was associated with transitions to higher levels of care, along with the ratio of aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to alanine aminotransferase (ALT).

External validation of prognostic scores for COVID-19: a multicenter cohort study of patients hospitalized in Greater Paris University Hospitals

Purpose

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has led to an unparalleled influx of patients. Prognostic scores could help optimizing healthcare delivery, but most of them have not been comprehensively validated. We aim to externally validate existing prognostic scores for COVID-19.

Methods

We used “COVID-19 Evidence Alerts” (McMaster University) to retrieve high-quality prognostic scores predicting death or intensive care unit (ICU) transfer from routinely collected data. We studied their accuracy in a retrospective multicenter cohort of adult patients hospitalized for COVID-19 from January 2020 to April 2021 in the Greater Paris University Hospitals. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were computed for the prediction of the original outcome, 30-day in-hospital mortality and the composite of 30-day in-hospital mortality or ICU transfer.

Results

We included 14,343 consecutive patients, 2583 (18%) died and 5067 (35%) died or were transferred to the ICU. We examined 274 studies and found 32 scores meeting the inclusion criteria: 19 had a significantly lower AUC in our cohort than in previously published validation studies for the original outcome; 25 performed better to predict in-hospital mortality than the composite of in-hospital mortality or ICU transfer; 7 had an AUC > 0.75 to predict in-hospital mortality; 2 had an AUC > 0.70 to predict the composite outcome.

Conclusion

Seven prognostic scores were fairly accurate to predict death in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The 4C Mortality Score and the ABCS stand out because they performed as well in our cohort and their initial validation cohort, during the first epidemic wave and subsequent waves, and in younger and older patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00134-021-06524-w.

COVID-19 patients age, comorbidity profiles and clinical presentation related to the SARS-CoV-2 UK-variant spread in the Southeast of France

The variant 20I/501Y.V1, associated to a higher risk of transmissibility, emerged in Nice city (Southeast of France, French Riviera) during January 2021. The pandemic has resumed late December 2020 in this area. A high incidence rate together with a fast turn-over of the main circulating variants, provided us the opportunity to analyze modifications in clinical profile and outcome traits. We performed an observational study in the University hospital of Nice from December 2020 to February 2021. We analyzed data of sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 from the sewage collector and PCR screening from all positive samples at the hospital. Then, we described the characteristics of all COVID-19 patients admitted in the emergency department (ED) (n = 1247) and those hospitalized in the infectious diseases ward or ICU (n = 232). The UK-variant was absent in this area in December, then increasingly spread in January representing 59% of the PCR screening performed mid-February. The rate of patients over 65 years admitted to the ED decreased from 63 to 50% (p = 0.001). The mean age of hospitalized patients in the infectious diseases ward decreased from 70.7 to 59.2 (p < 0.001) while the proportion of patients without comorbidity increased from 16 to 42% (p = 0.007). Spread of the UK-variant in the Southeast of France affects younger and healthier patients.

Mass Critical Care Surge Response During COVID-19: Implementation of Contingency Strategies - A Preliminary Report of Findings From the Task Force for Mass Critical Care

Background

After the publication of a 2014 consensus statement regarding mass critical care during public health emergencies, much has been learned about surge responses and the care of overwhelming numbers of patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. Gaps in prior pandemic planning were identified and require modification in the midst of severe ongoing surges throughout the world.

Research Question

A subcommittee from The Task Force for Mass Critical Care (TFMCC) investigated the most recent COVID-19 publications coupled with TFMCC members anecdotal experience in order to formulate operational strategies to optimize contingency level care, and prevent crisis care circumstances associated with increased mortality.

Study Design and Methods

TFMCC adopted a modified version of established rapid guideline methodologies from the World Health Organization and the Guidelines International Network-McMaster Guideline Development Checklist. With a consensus development process incorporating expert opinion to define important questions and extract evidence, the TFMCC developed relevant pandemic surge suggestions in a structured manner, incorporating peer-reviewed literature, “gray” evidence from lay media sources, and anecdotal experiential evidence.

Results

Ten suggestions were identified regarding staffing, load-balancing, communication, and technology. Staffing models are suggested with resilience strategies to support critical care staff. ICU surge strategies and strain indicators are suggested to enhance ICU prioritization tactics to maintain contingency level care and to avoid crisis triage, with early transfer strategies to further load-balance care. We suggest that intensivists and hospitalists be engaged with the incident command structure to ensure two-way communication, situational awareness, and the use of technology to support critical care delivery and families of patients in ICUs.

Interpretation

A subcommittee from the TFMCC offers interim evidence-informed operational strategies to assist hospitals and communities to plan for and respond to surge capacity demands resulting from COVID-19.

Two-months quality of life of COVID-19 invasively ventilated survivors; an Italian single-center study

Background

COVID‐19 disease can lead to severe functional impairments after discharge. We assessed the quality of life of invasively ventilated COVID‐19 ARDS survivors.

Methods

We carried out a prospective follow‐up study of the patients admitted to the Intensive Care Units (ICUs) of a teaching hospital. Patients affected by COVID‐19 ARDS who required invasive ventilation and were successfully discharged home were assessed through the telephone administration of validated tests. We explored survival, functional outcomes, return to work, quality of life, cognitive and psychological sequelae. The main variables of interest were the following: demographics, severity scores, laboratory values, comorbidities, schooling, working status, treatments received during ICU stay, complications, and psychological, cognitive, functional outcomes.

Results

Out of 116 consecutive invasively ventilated patients, overall survival was 65/116 (56%) with no death occurring after hospital discharge. Forty‐two patients were already discharged home with a median follow‐up time of 61 (51‐71) days after ICU discharge and 39 of them accepted to be interviewed. Only one patient (1/39) experienced cognitive decline. The vast majority of patients reported no difficulty in walking (32/35:82%), self‐care (33/39:85%), and usual activities (30/39:78%). All patients were either malnourished (15/39:38%) or at risk for malnutrition (24/39:62%). Exertional dyspnea was present in 20/39 (51%) patients. 19/39 (49%) reported alterations in senses of smell and/or taste either before or after hospitalization.

Conclusions

Invasively ventilated COVID‐19 ARDS survivors have an overall good recovery at a 2‐months follow‐up which is better than what was previously reported in non‐COVID‐19 ARDS patients.

Performance of Crisis Standards of Care Guidelines in a Cohort of Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients in the United States

Many US states published crisis standards of care (CSC) guidelines for allocating scarce critical care resources during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the performance of these guidelines in maximizing their population benefit has not been well tested. In 2,272 adults with COVID-19 requiring mechanical ventilation drawn from the Study of the Treatment and Outcomes in Critically Ill Patients with COVID-19 (STOP-COVID) multicenter cohort, we test the following three approaches to CSC algorithms: Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores grouped into ranges, SOFA score ranges plus comorbidities, and a hypothetical approach using raw SOFA scores not grouped into ranges. We find that area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves for all three algorithms demonstrate only modest discrimination for 28-day mortality. Adding comorbidity scoring modestly improves algorithm performance over SOFA scores alone. The algorithm incorporating comorbidities has modestly worse predictive performance for Black compared to white patients. CSC algorithms should be empirically examined to refine approaches to the allocation of scarce resources during pandemics and to avoid potential exacerbation of racial inequities.

Crisis standards of care (CSC) guidelines have poor prediction of 28-day mortality

Consideration of comorbidities modestly improves guideline performance

Simulation of clinical decision-making shows frequent ties in priority scores

Using comorbidities in CSC has the potential to exacerbate racial inequities

Predicting mortality of individual patients with COVID-19: a multicentre Dutch cohort

OBJECTIVE

Develop and validate models that predict mortality of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 admitted to the hospital.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

A multicentre cohort across 10 Dutch hospitals including patients from 27 February to 8 June 2020.

PARTICIPANTS

SARS-CoV-2 positive patients (age ≥18) admitted to the hospital.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

21-day all-cause mortality evaluated by the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. The predictive value of age was explored by comparison with age-based rules used in practice and by excluding age from the analysis.

RESULTS

2273 patients were included, of whom 516 had died or discharged to palliative care within 21 days after admission. Five feature sets, including premorbid, clinical presentation and laboratory and radiology values, were derived from 80 features. Additionally, an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)-based data-driven feature selection selected the 10 features with the highest F values: age, number of home medications, urea nitrogen, lactate dehydrogenase, albumin, oxygen saturation (%), oxygen saturation is measured on room air, oxygen saturation is measured on oxygen therapy, blood gas pH and history of chronic cardiac disease. A linear logistic regression and non-linear tree-based gradient boosting algorithm fitted the data with an AUC of 0.81 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.85) and 0.82 (0.79 to 0.85), respectively, using the 10 selected features. Both models outperformed age-based decision rules used in practice (AUC of 0.69, 0.65 to 0.74 for age >70). Furthermore, performance remained stable when excluding age as predictor (AUC of 0.78, 0.75 to 0.81).

CONCLUSION

Both models showed good performance and had better test characteristics than age-based decision rules, using 10 admission features readily available in Dutch hospitals. The models hold promise to aid decision-making during a hospital bed shortage.

Management of hypoxemia in SARS-CoV-2 infection: Lessons learned from one year of experience, with a special focus on silent hypoxemia

Silent hypoxemia is common in patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. In this article, the possible pathophysiological mechanisms underlying respiratory symptoms have been reviewed, and the presence of hypoxemia without hypoxia is also discussed. The experience we have gained since the start of the Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic has changed our point of view about which patients with respiratory involvement should be admitted to the intensive care unit/high-dependency unit for mechanical ventilation and monitoring. In patients with clinically well-tolerated mild to moderate hypoxemia (silent hypoxemia), regardless of the extent of pulmonary opacities found in radiological studies, the administration of supplemental oxygen therapy may increase the risk of endothelial damage. The risk of sudden respiratory arrest during emergency intubation, which could expose healthcare workers to infection, should be considered along with the risks of premature intubation. Criteria for intubation need to be revisited based on updated evidence showing that many patients with severe hypoxemia do not show increased work of breathing. This has implications in patient management and may explain in part reports of broad differences in outcomes among intubated patients.

A Practical Approach to Hospital Visitation During a Pandemic: Responding With Compassion to Unjustified Restrictions

During the COVID-19 pandemic, evidence-based resources have been sought to support decision-making and strategically inform hospitals' policies, procedures, and practices. While greatly emphasizing protection, most guiding documents have neglected to support and protect the psychosocial needs of frontline health care workers and patients and their families during provision of palliative and end-of-life care. Consequently, the stage has been set for increased anxiety, moral distress, and moral injury and extreme moral hazard. A family-centered approach to care has been unilaterally relinquished to a secondary and nonessential role during the current crisis. This phenomenon violates a foundational public health principle, namely, to apply the least restrictive means to achieve good for the many. Instead, there has been widespread adoption of utilitarian and paternalistic approaches. In many cases the foundational principles of palliative care have also been neglected. No circumstance, even a global public health emergency, should ever cause health care providers to deny their ethical obligations and human commitment to compassion. The lack of responsive protocols for family visitation, particularly at the end of life, is an important gap in the current recommendations for pandemic triage and contingency planning. A stepwise approach to hospital visitation using a tiered, standardized process for responding to emerging clinical circumstances and individual patients' needs should be considered, following the principle of proportionality. A contingency plan, based on epidemiological data, is the best strategy to refocus health care ethics in practice now and for the future.

Usefulness of the COVID-GRAM and CURB-65 scores for predicting severity in patients with COVID-19

AIM

The aim of this study was to determine the usefulness of COVID-GRAM and CURB-65 scores as predictors of the severity of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in Caucasian patients.

METHODS

This was a retrospective observational study including all adults with SARS-CoV-2 infection admitted to Hospital Universitario Marqués de Valdecilla from February to May 2020. Patients were stratified according to COVID-GRAM and CURB-65 scores as being at low-medium or high risk of critical illness. Univariate analysis, multivariate logistic regression models, receiver operating characteristic curve, and area under the curve (AUC) were calculated.

RESULTS

A total of 523 patients were included (51.8% male, 48.2% female; mean age 65.63 years (standard deviation 17.89 years)), of whom 110 (21%) presented a critical illness (intensive care unit admission 10.3%, 30-day mortality 13.8%). According to the COVID-GRAM score, 122 (23.33%) patients were classified as high risk; 197 (37.7%) presented a CURB-65 score ≥2. A significantly greater proportion of patients with critical illness had a high COVID-GRAM score (64.5% vs 30.5%; P < 0.001). The COVID-GRAM score emerged as an independent predictor of critical illness (odds ratio 9.40, 95% confidence interval 5.51-16.04; P < 0.001), with an AUC of 0.779. A high COVID-GRAM score showed an AUC of 0.88 for the prediction of 30-day mortality, while a CURB-65 ≥2 showed an AUC of 0.83.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-GRAM score may be a useful tool for evaluating the risk of critical illness in Caucasian patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. The CURB-65 score could be considered as an alternative.

Operationalizing Ethical Guidance for Ventilator Allocation in Minnesota: Saving the Most Lives or Exacerbating Health Disparities?

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

OBJECTIVES:

A statewide working group in Minnesota created a ventilator allocation scoring system in anticipation of functioning under a Crisis Standards of Care declaration. The scoring system was intended for patients with and without coronavirus disease 2019. There was disagreement about whether the scoring system might exacerbate health disparities and about whether the score should include age. We measured the relationship of ventilator scores to in-hospital and 3-month mortality. We analyzed our findings in the context of ethical and legal guidance for the triage of scarce resources.

DESIGN:

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING:

Multihospital within a single healthcare system.

PATIENTS:

Five-hundred four patients emergently intubated and admitted to the ICU.

INTERVENTIONS:

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:

The Ventilator Allocation Score was positively associated with higher mortality (p < 0.0001). The 3-month mortality rate for patients with a score of 6 or higher was 96% (42/44 patients). Age was positively associated with mortality. The 3-month mortality rate for patients 80 and older with scores of 4 or greater was 93% (40/43 patients). Of patients assigned a score of 5, those with end stage renal disease had lower mortality than patients without end stage renal disease although the difference did not achieve statistical significance (n = 27; 25% vs 58%; p = 0.2).

CONCLUSIONS:

The Ventilator Allocation Score can accurately identify patients with high rates of short-term mortality. However, these high mortality patients only represent 27% of all the patients who died, limiting the utility of the score for allocation of scarce resources. The score may unfairly prioritize older patients and inadvertently exacerbate racial health disparities through the inclusion of specific comorbidities such as end stage renal disease. Triage frameworks that include age should be considered. Purposeful efforts must be taken to ensure that triage protocols do not perpetuate or exacerbate prevailing inequities. Further work on the allocation of scarce resources in critical care settings would benefit from consensus on the primary ethical objective.

The Lived Experience of ICU Clinicians During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Outbreak: A Qualitative Study

OBJECTIVES

During the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, frontline healthcare professionals were asked to reorganize the provision of critical care in unprecedented ways. Our aim was to gain insight into the lived experience of clinicians who worked in ICUs during the surge.

DESIGN

Qualitative study using semistructured, in-depth interviews.

SETTING

Clinicians who worked in three ICUs in Paris (France) during the peak of the pandemic (April and May 2020).

PARTICIPANTS

Twenty-seven ICU clinicians (12 physicians, 11 nurses, three nursing assistants, and one respiratory therapist).

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Interviews were audio recorded and analyzed using thematic analysis. Six themes emerged: coping with initial disorganization and creating new routines, the intensification of professional relationships and the development of unexpected collaborations, losing one's reference points and recreating meaningful interactions with patients, working under new constraints and developing novel interactions with family members, compensating for the absence of family members and rituals at the end of life, and the full engagement of ICU clinicians during the coronavirus disease 2019 crisis.

CONCLUSIONS

Among ICU clinicians, there was a sense of total professional engagement during the surge. Caring for critically ill coronavirus disease 2019 patients was fraught with challenges and generated a strong feeling of responsibility, as clinicians felt they had to compensate for the absence of family members. Rethinking policies about family visits and safeguarding positive relationships among colleagues are two important priorities for future healthcare crises.