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Haimovich AD, Deardorff WJ. From bedside-to-model: Designing clinical prediction rules for implementation. J Am Geriatr Soc 2024; 72:1654-1657. [PMID: 38597114 PMCID: PMC11187664 DOI: 10.1111/jgs.18921] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2024] [Accepted: 03/25/2024] [Indexed: 04/11/2024]
Abstract
This editorial comments on the article by Herasevich et al.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adrian D Haimovich
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - W James Deardorff
- Division of Geriatrics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
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Pietiläinen L, Hästbacka J, Bäcklund M, Selander T, Reinikainen M. A novel score for predicting 1-year mortality of intensive care patients. Acta Anaesthesiol Scand 2024; 68:195-205. [PMID: 37771172 DOI: 10.1111/aas.14336] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2023] [Revised: 08/22/2023] [Accepted: 09/18/2023] [Indexed: 09/30/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND We aimed to develop a simple scoring table for predicting probability of death within 1-year after admission to an intensive care unit. We analysed data on emergency admissions from the nationwide Finnish intensive care quality registry. METHODS We included first admissions of adult patients with data available on 1-year vital status (dead or alive) and all five variables included in a premorbid functional status score, which is the number of activities the person can manage independently of the following five: get out of bed, move indoors, dress, climb stairs and walk 400 m. We analysed data on patient characteristics and admission-associated factors from 2012 to 2014 to find predictors of 1-year mortality and to develop a score for predicting probability of death. We tested the performance of this score in data from 2015. We assessed the 1-year functional status score of survivors with data available. RESULTS Out of 25,261 patients, 20,628 (81.7%) patients were able to perform all five functional activities independently prior to the intensive care unit admission. At 1-year post admission, 19,625 (77.7%) patients were alive. 1-year functional status score was known for 11,011 patients and 8970 (81.5%) patients achieved functional status score 5, managing all five activities independently. The score based on age, sex, preceding functional status, type of intensive care unit admission, severity of acute illness and the most significant diagnoses predicted 1-year mortality with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.78 (95% CI, 0.76-0.79). The calibration of our prediction model was good, with calibration intercept -0.01 (-0.07 to 0.05) and calibration slope 0.96 (0.90 to 1.02). CONCLUSION Our score based on data available at intensive care unit admission predicted 1-year mortality with fairly good discrimination. Most survivors achieved good functional recovery.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura Pietiläinen
- Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, Kuopio University Hospital, Kuopio, Finland
- University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, Finland
| | - Johanna Hästbacka
- Department of Anesthesia and Intensive Care, Tampere University Hospital, and Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
| | - Minna Bäcklund
- Division of Intensive Care Medicine, Department of Perioperative, Intensive Care and Pain Medicine, University of Helsinki and Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Tuomas Selander
- Science Service Center, Kuopio University Hospital, Kuopio, Finland
| | - Matti Reinikainen
- Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, Kuopio University Hospital, Kuopio, Finland
- University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, Finland
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Gill TM, Han L, Feder SL, Gahbauer EA, Leo-Summers L, Becher RD. Relationship Between Distressing Symptoms and Changes in Disability After Major Surgery Among Community-living Older Persons. Ann Surg 2024; 279:65-70. [PMID: 37389893 PMCID: PMC10761592 DOI: 10.1097/sla.0000000000005984] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/01/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To evaluate the relationship between distressing symptoms and changes in disability after major surgery and to determine whether this relationship differs according to the timing of surgery (nonelective vs elective), sex, multimorbidity, and socioeconomic disadvantage. BACKGROUND Major surgery is a common and serious health event that has pronounced deleterious effects on both distressing symptoms and functional outcomes in older persons. METHODS From a cohort of 754 community-living persons, aged 70 or older, 392 admissions for major surgery were identified from 283 participants who were discharged from the hospital. The occurrence of 15 distressing symptoms and disability in 13 activities were assessed monthly for up to 6 months after major surgery. RESULTS Over the 6-month follow-up period, each unit increase in the number of distressing symptoms was associated with a 6.4% increase in the number of disabilities [adjusted rate ratio (RR): 1.064; 95% CI: 1.053, 1.074]. The corresponding increases were 4.0% (adjusted RR: 1.040; 95% CI: 1.030, 1.050) and 8.3% (adjusted RR: 1.083; 95% CI: 1.066, 1.101) for nonelective and elective surgeries. Based on exposure to multiple (ie, 2 or more) distressing symptoms, the adjusted RRs (95% CI) were 1.43 (1.35, 1.50), 1.24 (1.17, 1.31), and 1.61 (1.48, 1.75) for all, nonelective, and elective surgeries. Statistically significant associations were observed for each of the other subgroups with the exception of individual-level socioeconomic disadvantage for the number of distressing symptoms. CONCLUSIONS Distressing symptoms are independently associated with worsening disability, providing a potential target for improving functional outcomes after major surgery.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas M. Gill
- Yale School of Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, New Haven, CT
| | - Ling Han
- Yale School of Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, New Haven, CT
| | - Shelli L. Feder
- Yale School of Nursing, Orange, CT
- VA Connecticut Healthcare System, West Haven, CT
| | | | - Linda Leo-Summers
- Yale School of Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, New Haven, CT
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Jain S, Han L, Gahbauer EA, Leo-Summers L, Feder SL, Ferrante LE, Gill TM. Changes in Restricting Symptoms after Critical Illness among Community-Living Older Adults. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2023; 208:1206-1215. [PMID: 37769149 PMCID: PMC10868351 DOI: 10.1164/rccm.202304-0693oc] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2023] [Accepted: 09/28/2023] [Indexed: 09/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Rationale: Survivors of critical illness have multiple symptoms, but how restricting symptoms change after critical illness and whether these changes differ among vulnerable subgroups is unknown. Objectives: To evaluate changes in restricting symptoms over the six months after critical illness among older adults and to determine whether these changes differ by sex, multimorbidity, and individual- and neighborhood-level socioeconomic disadvantage. Methods: From a prospective longitudinal study of 754 community-living adults ⩾70 years old interviewed monthly (1998-2018), we identified 233 admissions from 193 participants to the ICU. The occurrence of 15 restricting symptoms, defined as those leading to restricted activity, were ascertained during interviews in the month before ICU admission (baseline) and each of the six months after hospital discharge. Measurements and Main Results: The occurrence and number of restricting symptoms increased more than threefold in the six months after a critical illness hospitalization (adjusted rate ratio [95% confidence interval], 3.1 [2.1-4.6] and 3.3 [2.1-5.3], respectively), relative to baseline. These increases were largest in the first month after hospitalization (adjusted rate ratio [95% confidence interval], 5.3 [3.8-7.3] and 5.4 [3.9-7.5], respectively] before declining and becoming nonsignificant in the third month. Increases in restricting symptoms did not differ significantly by sex, multimorbidity, or individual- or neighborhood-level socioeconomic disadvantage. Conclusions: Restricting symptoms increase substantially after a critical illness before returning to baseline three months after hospital discharge. Our findings highlight the need to incorporate symptom management into post-ICU care and for further investigation into whether addressing restricting symptoms can improve quality of life and functional recovery among older ICU survivors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Snigdha Jain
- Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - Ling Han
- Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - Evelyne A. Gahbauer
- Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - Linda Leo-Summers
- Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - Shelli L. Feder
- School of Nursing, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut; and
- Pain Research, Informatics, Multiple Morbidities, and Education Center of Excellence, VA Connecticut Healthcare System, West Haven, Connecticut
| | - Lauren E. Ferrante
- Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - Thomas M. Gill
- Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
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Gill TM, Han L, Murphy TE, Feder SL, Gahbauer EA, Leo-Summers L, Becher RD. Distressing symptoms after major surgery among community-living older persons. J Am Geriatr Soc 2023; 71:2430-2440. [PMID: 37010784 PMCID: PMC10524276 DOI: 10.1111/jgs.18357] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2022] [Revised: 02/17/2023] [Accepted: 03/07/2023] [Indexed: 04/04/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Relatively little is known about how distressing symptoms change among older persons in the setting of major surgery. Our objective was to evaluate changes in distressing symptoms after major surgery and determine whether these changes differ according to the timing of surgery (nonelective vs. elective), sex, multimorbidity, and socioeconomic disadvantage. METHODS From a prospective longitudinal study of 754 nondisabled community-living persons, 70 years of age or older, 368 admissions for major surgery were identified from 274 participants who were discharged from the hospital from March 1998 to December 2017. The occurrence of 15 distressing symptoms was ascertained in the month before and 6 months after major surgery. Multimorbidity was defined as more than two chronic conditions. Socioeconomic disadvantage was assessed at the individual level, based on Medicaid eligibility, and neighborhood level, based on an area deprivation index (ADI) score above the 80th state percentile. RESULTS In the month before major surgery, the occurrence and mean number of distressing symptoms were 19.6% and 0.75, respectively. In multivariable analyses, the rate ratios, denoting proportional increases in the 6 months after major surgery relative to presurgery values, were 2.56 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.91-3.44) and 2.90 (95% CI, 2.01-4.18) for the occurrence and number of distressing symptoms, respectively. The corresponding values were 3.54 (95% CI, 2.06-6.08) and 4.51 for nonelective surgery (95% CI, 2.32-8.76) and 2.12 (95% CI, 1.53-2.92) and 2.20 (95% CI, 1.48-3.29) for elective surgery; p-values for interaction were 0.030 and 0.009. None of the other subgroup differences were statistically significant, although men had a greater proportional increase in the occurrence and number of distressing symptoms than women. CONCLUSIONS Among community-living older persons, the burden of distressing symptoms increases substantially after major surgery, especially in those having nonelective procedures. Reducing symptom burden has the potential to improve quality of life and enhance functional outcomes after major surgery.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas M. Gill
- Yale School of Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, New Haven, CT
| | - Ling Han
- Yale School of Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, New Haven, CT
| | - Terrence E. Murphy
- Pennsylvania State University, Department of Public Health Sciences, Hershey, PA
| | - Shelli L. Feder
- Yale School of Nursing, Orange, CT
- VA Connecticut Healthcare System, West Haven, CT
| | | | - Linda Leo-Summers
- Yale School of Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, New Haven, CT
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Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW The population is aging, and recent epidemiologic work reveals that an increasing number of older adults are presenting to the ICU with preexisting geriatric syndromes. In this update, we discuss recent literature pertaining to the long-term recovery of older ICU patients and highlight gaps in current knowledge. RECENT FINDINGS A recent longitudinal study demonstrated that the incidence of frailty, disability, and multimorbidity among older ICU patients is rising; these geriatric syndromes have all previously been shown to impact long-term recovery. Recent studies have demonstrated the impact of social factors in long-term outcomes after critical illness; for example, social isolation was recently shown to be associated with disability and mortality among older adults in the year after critical illness. Socioeconomic disadvantage is associated with higher rates of dementia and disability following critical illness impacting recovery, and further studies are necessary to better understand factors influencing this disparity. The COVID-19 pandemic disproportionately impacted older adults, resulting in worse outcomes and increased rates of functional decline and social isolation. In considering how to best facilitate recovery for older ICU survivors, transitional care programs may address the unique needs of older adults and help them adapt to new disability if recovery has not been achieved. SUMMARY Recent work demonstrates increasing trends of geriatric syndromes in the ICU, all of which are known to confer increased vulnerability among critically ill older adults and decrease the likelihood of post-ICU recovery. Risk factors are now known to extend beyond geriatric syndromes and include social risk factors and structural inequity. Strategies to improve post-ICU recovery must be viewed with a lens across the continuum of care, with post-ICU recovery programs targeted to the unique needs of older adults.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Lauren E Ferrante
- Section of Pulmonary, Critical Care, and Sleep Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
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