Prognostic models for selecting patients with acute pulmonary embolism for initial outpatient therapy:

Lipid-to-neutrophil ratios in predicting in-hospital outcomes in pulmonary thromboembolism

Introduction

Acute pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE) is one of the leading causes of death and severe disability. Considering the impact of inflammation and lipid profile on prevalence and prognosis of deep vein thrombosis and PTE, this study was conducted to assess the predictive value of lipid-to-neutrophil count ratios for the short-term survival of PTE patients.

Methods

This study is an analytical cross-sectional study. Data regarding the demographics, past medical history, vital signs, laboratory variables, and the outcomes of hospitalization were gathered from the Tabriz PTE registry. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and area under curve (AUC) were utilized for assessing the prognostic values. SPSS 26 was used for all of the statistical analysis.

Results

The population of this analytical cross-sectional study consists of 547 PTE patients of which 41 patients (7.5%) died during hospitalization. There was a significant difference between death and survived groups regarding cholesterol (146.00[60.50] vs. 165.50[59.75]; p-value<0.01), LDL (80.00[48.00] vs. 102.00[52.00]; p-value<0.01), HDL (31.00[19.00] vs. 35.00[14.00]; p-value=0.04). Cholesterol/neutrophil*1000 with a cut-off value of 22.014 (sensitivity: 56.7%; specificity: 61.3%), LDL/neutrophil*1000 with a cut-off value of 10.909 (sensitivity: 69.3%; specificity: 51.9%) and HDL/neutrophile *1000 with a cut-off value of 4.150 (sensitivity: 61.9%; specificity: 58.1%) can predict short-term survival in patients with acute PTE.

Conclusion

Based on our findings, patients with higher cholesterol/neutrophil, LDL/neutrophil, and HDL/neutrophil ratios have a better in-hospital prognosis and measurement of lipid-to-neutrophil ratio in the first 24 hours of hospitalization may be a valuable marker for determining the early prognosis of PTE. However, additional clinical studies are suggested for a more definitive conclusion.

A novel prognostic prediction indicator in patients with acute pulmonary embolism: Naples prognostic score

Acute pulmonary embolism (APE) is a potentially fatal disease. Early risk stratification is essential to determining appropriate treatment. We aimed to investigate the predictive value of the Naples Prognostic Score (NPS) for 30-day all-cause mortality in patients with APE. In this retrospective analysis, 325 hospitalized patients with APE were divided into Groups 0 (n = 131), 1 (n = 153), and 2 (n = 41) according to the NPS. The primary outcome event was all-cause mortality during 30 days of follow-up from the day of admission. The correlation between NPS, clinical features, and outcomes in each group was evaluated. The patients were divided into two groups, survivor (n = 294) and nonsurvivor (n = 31), according to their prognosis. The results of the comparison between the three NPS groups revealed that patients with older age, faster heart rate, lower systolic blood pressure, low albumin and total cholesterol levels, high neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), low lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), right heart dilatation, heart failure, malignancy, and lower extremity venous thrombosis had significantly higher 30-day all-cause mortality (P < 0.05). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for NPS to predict all-cause death within 30 days in patients with APE was 0.780 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.678-0.855), with sensitivity being 80.6% (95% CI = 0.667-0.946) and specificity being 72.1% (95% CI = 0.670-0.772). Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves showed that Group 2 APE patients had the highest risk of all-cause mortality compared with the other two groups (log-rank test, P = 0.0004). Forest plot visualization using the Cox proportional hazard model showed a significant increase in the risk of 30-day all-cause mortality by 239% (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.385 [1.115-10.273], P = 0.031) and 338% (HR = 4.377 [1.228-15.598], P = 0.023), and the trend test showed a statistical difference (P = 0.042). The study concluded that NPS is a novel, reliable, and multidimensional prognostic scoring system with good prediction of 30-day all-cause mortality in patients with APE.

Prognostic significance of computed tomography-assessed right ventricular enlargement in low-risk patients with pulmonary embolism: Systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

For patients with acute low-risk pulmonary embolism (PE), determined by a validated clinical prognostic score, the additive prognostic significance of computed tomography (CT)-assessed right ventricular (RV) enlargement is uncertain.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that enrolled patients with acute low-risk PE to assess the prognostic value of concomitant CT-assessed RV enlargement for 30-day all-cause mortality and PE-related death. We conducted unrestricted searches of PubMed and Embase through December 2019. We used a random-effects model to pool study results; Begg rank correlation method to evaluate for publication bias; and I² testing to assess for heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Of the 7 cohorts with 2197 participants who had low-risk PE and provided results on the primary outcome, 743 (34%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 32-36%) patients had concomitant RV enlargement. Six of 743 (0.8%; 95% CI, 0.3-1.8%) patients with concomitant RV enlargement died 30-days after the diagnosis of PE compared with 3 of 1454 (0.2%, 95% CI, 0-0.6%) without RV enlargement. CT-assessed RV enlargement did not have a significant association with 30-day all-cause mortality (odds ratio [OR], 2.6; 95% CI, 0.7-9.4; I² = 0%; P = 0.15) or PE-related mortality (OR, 2.8; 95% CI, 0.7-12.1; I² = 0%; P = 0.16).

CONCLUSIONS

CT-assessed RV enlargement occurs in a third of PE patients identified as low-risk by clinical scores. Mortality rate in these patients is low, and CT-assessed RV enlargement was not associated with a significantly increased risk of death within 30 days of PE diagnosis.

Risk adapted management of acute pulmonary embolism in women

Acute pulmonary embolism (PE) represents the third most common cause of cardiovascular death worldwide. Clinical practice guidelines recommend prompt risk stratification of patients with acute PE. Prognostication may accurately identify: 1) hemodynamically unstable (i.e., high-risk) patients with PE, who might benefit from recanalization therapies (i.e., thrombolysis, embolectomy); 2) intermediate- to high-risk patients with PE, who might require monitoring and recanalization procedures if early hemodynamic decompensation occurs; and 3) low-risk patients with PE, who might benefit from an abbreviated hospital stay or outpatient therapy. A fourth group of patients should not undergo escalated or home therapy (intermediate- to low-risk PE). Studies of patients with proven acute PE have shown conflicting data regarding the association between sex and presentation and short-term clinical course in patients with acute symptomatic PE. Therefore, at this time sex differences should not dictate different approaches to prognostication and management.

Asymptomatic tachycardia and acute pulmonary embolism in a case of tuberculosis spondylodiscitis

Introduction

Tachycardia, or elevated heart rate is one of the important clinical parameters considered when diagnosing pulmonary embolism (PE) based on Wells' criteria. However, tachycardia is not highly specific and commonly presents in many other conditions.

Case presentation

A 29-year-old female with incomplete paraplegia secondary to tuberculosis (TB) spondylodiscitis presented with asymptomatic sinus tachycardia. The related medical conditions, including anaemia, acute coronary syndrome, hyperthyroidism and other infective causes had been ruled out. Deep venous thrombosis was not on the list of differentials as she showed improvements in neurological and mobility functions with no clinical signs of calf pain or swelling. She had moderate risk of acute PE based on Wells' criteria with positive D-dimer testing and computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) showing thrombus formation in the left-ascending pulmonary artery.

Discussion

Acute PE may present solely with asymptomatic sinus tachycardia in TB spondylodiscitis. This caveat should provide a high index of suspicion to prevent delay in diagnosis and prevention of more sinister complications. Early stratification based on Wells' criteria for a possible diagnosis of acute PE is proven to be a useful approach in conjunction with clinical features.

Derivation and Validation of a Novel Prediction Model to Identify Low-Risk Patients With Acute Pulmonary Embolism

Accurate identification of low-risk patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) who may be eligible for outpatient treatment or early discharge can have substantial cost-saving benefit. The purpose of this study was to derive and validate a prediction model to effectively identify patients with PE at low risk of short-term mortality, right ventricular dysfunction, and other nonfatal outcomes. This study analyzed data from 400 consecutive patients with acute PE. We derived and internally validated our prediction rule based on clinically significant variables that are routinely available at initial examination and that were categorized and weighted using coefficients in the multivariate logistic regression. The model was externally validated in an independent cohort of 82 patients. The final model (HOPPE score) consisted of 5 categorized patient variables (1, 2, or 3 points, respectively): systolic blood pressure (>120, 100 to 119, <99 mm Hg), diastolic blood pressure (>80, 65 to 79, <64 mm Hg), heart rate (<80, 81 to 100, >101 beats/min), arterial partial pressure of oxygen (>80, 60 to 79, <59 mm Hg), and modified electrocardiographic score (<2, 2 to 4, >4). The 30-day mortality rates were 0% in low risk (0 to 6 points), 7.5% to 8.5% in intermediate risk (7 to 10), and 18.2% to 18.8% in high-risk patients (≥11) across the derivation and validation cohorts. In comparison with the previously validated PESI score, the HOPPE score had a higher discriminatory power (area under the curve 0.74 vs 0.85, p = 0.033) and significantly improved both the discrimination (integrated discrimination improvement, p = 0.002) and reclassification (net reclassification improvement, p = 0.003) of the model for short-term mortality. In conclusion, the HOPPE score accurately identifies acute patients with PE at low risk of short-term mortality, right ventricular dysfunction, and other nonfatal outcomes. Prospective validation of the prediction model is necessary before implementation in clinical practice.

Pulmonary embolism severity index, age-based markers and evaluation in the emergency department

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to assess the severity of pulmonary embolism in the emergency department using vital signs and age-based vital parameters and compare these parameters with pulmonary embolism severity index (PESI) score.

METHODS

Between January 2011 and October 2014, there were 284 patients diagnosed with pulmonary embolism in the Emergency Unit of Selcuk University Hospital. Patient records were reviewed retrospectively. The PESI scores were calculated, and patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups. Shock index (SI), age-based shock index (SIA), maximum heart rate (MHR), minpulse (MP) and pulse maximum index (PMI) were calculated. The association of these parameters with PESI was evaluated. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to evaluate the association of risk and mortality with age-based markers.

RESULTS

There were 75 men (43%) in the 173 patients included in the study. The PESI classification showed 54 patients in the low-risk group and 119 patients in the high-risk group. Mortality was higher in the PESI high-risk group, and no deaths occurred in the low-risk group. Comparison of the age-based markers and PESI for patients who died or survived showed that AUC for PESI was 0.807, AUC for SI was 0.824 and AUC for SIA was 0.825.

CONCLUSIONS

The SIA risk classification was more efficient than SI in pulmonary embolism patients who presented to the emergency unit. The SIA was more accurate than SI or PESI in predicting mortality.

Predictors of inhospital prognosis in acute pulmonary embolism: keeping it simple and effective!

The assessment of commonly available demographic, clinical, and easily calculable investigational parameters instead of the conventional complicated indices for prognosis in acute pulmonary embolism may help in triage in a simple and cost-effective way. Clinical, demographic, and investigational parameters were collected and utilized for the assessment of inhospital prognosis of acute pulmonary embolism in 200 consecutive patients admitted to our institute. Overall mortality was 18% and poor outcome at discharge was seen in another 18.5%. In univariate analysis, predominant presenting symptom of fatigue, sudden onset of symptoms, overt right ventricular failure, hypoxemia at admission, low SBP and DBP, coexistent pulmonary or cardiac illness, ECG evidence of right axis deviation, SIQ3T3 pattern, conduction blocks, echocardiographic evidence of right ventricular dysfunction, decreased inspiratory collapse of inferior vena cava, severe pulmonary arterial hypertension, visible thrombus in pulmonary artery, significant tricuspid regurgitation, computed tomographic evidence of total occlusion of major pulmonary arteries, diameter of main pulmonary artery, acute or chronic pulmonary embolism, renal and hepatic dysfunction, hyponatremia, hyperkalemia, troponin elevation, use of fibrin-specific agent, requirement of inotropic support, and mechanical ventilation were the variables found to significantly predict adverse outcome. In multivariate analysis, hypoxemia, no improvement after lysis, deranged liver function test, conduction blocks, and signs of right ventricular failure were the significant variables, while inotropic support requirement had a trend toward significance. Clinical, demographic, and routine investigational parameters help to risk-stratify the patients presenting with acute pulmonary embolism and to prognosticate and manage in a simpler yet effective way.

Prognostic role of simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index and the European Society of Cardiology Prognostic Model in short- and long-term risk stratification in pulmonary embolism

OBJECTIVES

Hemodynamic status, cardiac enzymes, and imaging-based risk stratification are frequently used to evaluate a pulmonary embolism (PE). This study investigated the prognostic role of a simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI) score and the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) model. Methods : The study included 50 patients from the emergency and pulmonology department of one medical center between October 2005 and June 2006. The ability of the sPESI and ESC model to predict short-term (in-hospital) and long-term (6-month and 6-year) overall mortality was assessed, in addition to the accurancy of the sPESI and ESC model in predicting short-term adverse events, such as cardiopulmonary resuscitation, or major bleeding. Results : Of the 50 patients, the in-hospital and 6-year mortality rates were 14% and 46%, respectively. Fifteen (30%) of these experienced adverse events during hospitalization. Importantly, patients classified as low-risk according to the sPESI had no short-term adverse events as opposed to 4.8 % in the ESC low-risk group. They also had no in-hospital, 6-month, or 6-year mortality compared to 4.8%, %14.3, and %23.8, respectively, in the ESC low-risk group.

CONCLUSIONS

The sPESI predicted short-term and long-term survival. The exclusion of short-term adverse events does not appear to require imaging and laboratory testing.

Identification of reduced circulating haptoglobin concentration as a biomarker of the severity of pulmonary embolism: a nontargeted proteomic study

Risk stratification of patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) may identify patients at high risk of early death who may benefit from more intensive surveillance or aggressive therapy. Nontargeted proteomics may identify biomarkers useful for the risk stratification of patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism (PE). We studied 6 patients presenting with low-risk PE and 6 patients presenting with intermediate (n = 3) or high-risk (n = 3) PE. Two-dimensional difference gel electrophoresis was used to compare their plasma protein abundances. Candidate protein markers were identified by matrix assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry. A panel of four biomarkers (haptoglobin, hemopexin, α₂-macroglobulin, and Ig α₁-chain C region) showed differences in plasma abundance among patients with acute symptomatic PE of different severity. Haptoglobin and hemopexin were decreased, whereas α₂-macroglobulin and Ig α₁-chain C region were increased, in patients with high or intermediate-risk PE compared with low-risk PE patient. In a separate clinical population consisting of 104 adults with acute PE, serum haptoglobin concentrations had an 85% chance of correctly identifying patients with high-risk PE according to receiving operating characteristics curve analysis. Moreover, serum haptoglobin concentrations ≤1 g/l showed an 80% sensitivity and a 96% specificity for the diagnosis of high-risk PE. Nontargeted proteomics identified protein biomarkers for the severity of PE that are involved in iron metabolism pathways and acute-phase response. Among them, reduced serum haptoglobin concentrations show a high accuracy for the biochemical detection of high-risk PE.

Predicting short-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism: a simple model

BACKGROUND

The aim of the present study was to develop a simple prognostic rule that could classify patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) into categories of increased risk of 30-day mortality.

METHODS

One hundred patients with PE were enrolled. Clinical and laboratory findings were recorded on admission for each patient. Differences between groups' survival and death were tested, and the association with the 30-day mortality was determined.

RESULTS

Three variables had a significant effect on survival: age, Charlson index and the alveolar to arterial (A-a) gradient. A receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed, and the cut-off points used for the comparison of survival were 67 years of age, A-a gradient over 52.8 mm Hg and Charlson index over 2. By combining these variables, a score was established for distinguishing patients with PE who are at high risk. This score was also validated in a group of 30 consecutive patients admitted to the hospital for PE Additionally, a tree method was applied and showed that for patients with a history of diabetes and Charlson index >3, the expected outcome is death.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study suggest that patients with PE could be stratified into categories of increasing risk of 30-day mortality using a simple score based only on routinely available variables. Future studies are needed to validate our prognostic model in a large cohort of patients with PE.

Venous thromboembolism management: where do novel anticoagulants fit?

OBJECTIVE

To review novel oral anticoagulant (NOAC) trials in the treatment of venous thromboembolism (VTE) and the possible use of risk-stratification tools to guide their use in practice.

SCOPE

MEDLINE and Cochrane databases were searched to identify relevant journal articles published from January 1982 to February 2013. Additional references were obtained from articles extracted during the database search.

FINDINGS

NOACs have been developed to optimize VTE management and overcome the limitations of heparin and vitamin K antagonists (VKA). The AMPLIFY and EINSTEIN trials of apixaban and rivaroxaban, respectively, investigated single-drug management of VTE, whereas the edoxaban Hokusai-VTE trial and dabigatran RE-COVER and RE-COVER II trials investigated the use of NOACs with a heparin lead-in. The AMPLIFY and Hokusai-VTE trials are ongoing but the EINSTEIN and RE-COVER trials have demonstrated that rivaroxaban and dabigatran, respectively, are non-inferior to parenteral anticoagulants and warfarin in the management of VTE. Differences in study design complicate the application of study results to clinical practice. There are multiple validated DVT protocols that effectively and safely treat patients in outpatient settings. The pulmonary embolism (PE) severity index (PESI), simplified PESI (sPESI), and other prognostic tools have been used to risk stratify patients with PE by estimating mortality risk to guide outpatient eligibility.

CONCLUSIONS

NOACs provide physicians with new therapeutic options in the management of VTE. While heparin and VKAs compose the current standard treatment for VTE, their use will likely disappear as physicians grow comfortable with the adoption of NOACs. As studies have not clearly defined the efficacy of these agents in certain patient populations, further data in special patient populations and risk stratification through the use of VTE severity scores could potentially be adapted to guide anticoagulant management and outpatient treatment eligibility.

Developing a complex intervention for the outpatient management of incidentally diagnosed pulmonary embolism in cancer patients

Background

Most patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) spend 5–7 days in hospital even though only 4.5% will develop serious complications during this time. In particular, the group of patients with incidentally diagnosed PE (i-PE) includes many patients with low risk features potentially ideal for outpatient management; however the evidence for their optimal management is lacking hence relative practices may vary considerably. We describe the development process, components, links and function of a nurse-led service for the management of patients with i-PE, developed in accordance to the UK Medical Research Council complex intervention guidance.

Methods

Phase 0 (Theoretical underpinning): The Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) was selected for patient risk assessment and the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) guideline for the management of PE in cancer patients (2007) was selected as quality measure. Historical registry and audit data from our centre regarding i-PE incidence and management for the period between 2006 and 2009 illustrating the then current practices were reviewed. Phase 1 (Modelling): Modelling of the pathway included the following: a) Identification of training needs, planning and implementation of training schemes and development of transferable competencies and training materials. b) Mapping patient pathways and flow and c) Production of key documentation and Standard Operating Procedures for the delivery of the service.

Results

Phase 2 (Implementation and testing of the intervention): During the initial 12 months of implementation, remedial action was taken to address identified deficiencies regarding patient referral to the pathway, compliance with treatment protocol, patient follow up, selection challenges from the use of PESI in cancer patients and challenges regarding the “first-pass” identification of i-PE.

Conclusion

We have developed and piloted a complex intervention to manage cancer patients with incidental PE in an outpatient setting. Adherence to evidence- based care, improvement of communication between professionals and patients, and improved quality of data is demonstrated.

Prospective comparison of clinical prognostic scores in elder patients with a pulmonary embolism

BACKGROUND

The Geneva Prognostic Score (GPS), the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) and its simplified version (sPESI) are well-known clinical prognostic scores for a pulmonary embolism (PE).

OBJECTIVES

To compare the prognostic performance of these scores in elderly patients with a PE.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In a multicenter Swiss cohort of elderly patients with venous thromboembolism, we prospectively studied 449 patients aged ≥ 65 years with a symptomatic PE. The outcome was 30-day overall mortality. We dichotomized patients as low vs. higher risk in all three scores using the following thresholds: GPS scores ≤ 2 vs. > 2, PESI risk classes I-II vs. III-V and sPESI scores 0 vs. ≥ 1. We compared 30-day mortality in low- vs. higher-risk patients and the areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC).

RESULTS

Overall, 3.8% of patients (17/449) died within 30 days. The GPS classified a greater proportion of patients as low risk (92% [413/449]) than the PESI (36.3% [163/449]) and the sPESI (39.6% [178/449]) (P < 0.001 for each comparison). Low-risk patients based on the sPESI had a mortality of 0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0-2.1%) compared with 0.6% (95% CI 0-3.4%) for low-risk patients based on the PESI and 3.4% (95% CI 1.9-5.6%) for low-risk patients based on the GPS. The areas under the ROC curves were 0.77 (95% CI 0.72-0.81), 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.80) and 0.71 (95% CI 0.66-0.75), respectively (P = 0.47).

CONCLUSIONS

In this cohort of elderly patients with PE, the GPS identified a higher proportion of patients as low risk but the PESI and sPESI were more accurate in predicting mortality.

Management of pulmonary embolism with rheolytic thrombectomy

BACKGROUND

Catheter thrombectomy combining thrombus destruction with local thrombolysis has been used in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) who are unstable or have significant right heart dysfunction, but have contraindications to systemic thrombolytic therapy.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the outcomes of patients who underwent pulmonary embolectomy using a commercially available thrombectomy device.

METHODS

A retrospective chart review of patients who underwent pulmonary embolectomy between March 2007 and August 2009 was performed. Patients were classified as having clinical massive or submassive PE, and moderate or severe right ventricular dysfunction. Data collected included pre- and postprocedure shock index (heart rate divided by systolic blood pressure) and mean pulmonary artery pressure.

RESULTS

Sixteen patients with a mean (± SD) age of 54.4 ± 15.8 years underwent embolectomy. Five had clinical massive PE (two in cardiogenic shock) and three of 11 submassive cases had severe right ventricular dysfunction. All were deemed to have contraindications to systemic lysis. Both shock index (1.02 ± 33 preintervention versus 0.71 ± 0.2 postintervention [P=0.001]) and mean pulmonary artery pressure (34.5 ± 9.9 mmHg preintervention versus 27.1 ± 7.1 postintervention [P=0.01]) improved. In the massive PE group, one patient died and two survivors experienced retroperitoneal bleeding and transient renal failure. At follow-up (17.3 ± 7.8 months), two patients in the massive PE group demonstrated evidence of mild cor pulmonale.

CONCLUSION

Rheolytic thrombectomy is an effective strategy in managing massive PE, particularly in patients who have well-defined contraindications to systemic lytic therapy. The effectiveness of rheolytic thrombectomy for submassive PE is not as well defined, but warrants a comparison with systemic lytic therapy.

Cardiothoracic CT: one-stop-shop procedure? Impact on the management of acute pulmonary embolism

In the treatment of pulmonary embolism (PE) two groups of patients are traditionally identified, namely the hemodynamically stable and instable groups. However, in the large group of normotensive patients with PE, there seems to be a subgroup of patients with an increased risk of an adverse outcome, which might benefit from more aggressive therapy than the current standard therapy with anticoagulants. Risk stratification is a commonly used method to define subgroups of patients with either a high or low risk of an adverse outcome. In this review the clinical parameters and biomarkers of myocardial injury and right ventricular dysfunction (RVD) that have been suggested to play an important role in the risk stratification of PE are described first. Secondly, the use of more direct imaging techniques like echocardiography and CT in the assessment of RVD are discussed, followed by a brief outline of new imaging techniques. Finally, two risk stratification models are proposed, combining the markers of RVD with cardiac biomarkers of ischemia to define whether patients should be admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) and/or be given thrombolysis, admitted to the medical ward, or be safely treated at home with anticoagulant therapy.

Association between the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) and short-term clinical deterioration

The Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) has been shown to predict 30 and 90 day mortality after PE. However, whether the PESI predicts patients who will be free of clinically adverse outcomes during a typical hospitalisation is not known. Retrospective analysis of Emergency Department patients with PE from May 2006 to April 2008. We compiled demographics, data to calculate the PESI and a composite outcome. Patients were considered to have a negative PESI if they were in category I or II (≤85 points). Patients were considered to have the composite outcome if, within five days of diagnosis, they: A) had recurrent PE; B) developed a new cardiac dysrhythmia; C) required advanced cardiac life support; D) required respiratory support; E) required vasopressors; F) received thrombolysis; G) had major bleeding; H) returned to the ED; I) died. We enrolled 245 patients with PE. Of these, 115 (47%) were male, 204 (83%) were white. The mean age was 57 ± 17 years. The PESI identified 109 (44%) as low risk and 136 (56%) as high risk. Sixty-one (26%) patients had the outcome, of whom nine (14%) were characterised as low risk by the PESI. Test characteristics were: sensitivity 86% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 75%-93%), specificity 55% (95% CI: 47%-62%), NPV 63% (95% CI: 55%-70%), PPV 40% (95% CI: 31%-49%), LR(+) 1.9 (95% CI: 1.57-2.30) and LR(-) 0.26 (95% CI: 0.14-0.48). Of the patients who had an adverse clinical event or required a hospital-based intervention within the first five days after PE diagnosis, 14% were categorised by the PESI as safe for discharge [corrected] .

Risk stratification of normotensive patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism

Treatment guidelines recommend strong consideration of thrombolysis in patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism (PE) that present with arterial hypotension or shock because of the high risk of death in this setting. For haemodynamically stable patients with PE, the categorization of risk for subgroups may assist with decision-making regarding PE therapy. Clinical models [e.g. Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI)] may accurately identify those at low risk of overall death in the first 3 months after the diagnosis of PE, and such patients might benefit from an abbreviated hospital stay or outpatient therapy. Though some evidence suggests that a subset of high-risk normotensive patients with PE may have a reasonable risk to benefit ratio for thrombolytic therapy, single markers of right ventricular dysfunction (e.g. echocardiography, spiral computed tomography, or brain natriuretic peptide testing) and myocardial injury (e.g. cardiac troponin T or I testing) have an insufficient positive predictive value for PE-specific mortality to drive decision-making toward such therapy. Recommendations for outpatient treatment or thrombolytic therapy for patients with PE necessitate further development of prognostic models and conduct of clinical trials that assess various treatment strategies.

Highly sensitive troponin T assay in normotensive patients with acute pulmonary embolism

AIMS

To assess the role of cardiac troponin T (cTnT) levels on admission using a new, highly sensitive assay (hsTnT) in the risk assessment of normotensive patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We prospectively studied 156 consecutive normotensive patients with confirmed PE. The prognostic value of hsTnT at baseline was compared with the conventional cTnT troponin assay and with N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide concentrations. Long-term follow-up was available for 153 patients (98.1%). Highly sensitive troponin T values ranged from 0.001 to 357.2 pg/mL [median 27.2 (25th-75th percentile 9.4-69.4) pg/mL]. Overall, 100 patients (64%) had hsTnT > or =14 pg/mL. Baseline hsTnT was higher in patients with an adverse 30-day outcome (> or =1: death, need for catecholamines, endotracheal intubation, or cardiopulmonary resuscitation) compared with an uncomplicated course [71.7 (35.5-117.9) vs. 26.4 (9.2-68.2) pg/mL; P = 0.027]. The cut-off value of 14 pg/mL showed an excellent prognostic sensitivity and negative predictive value (both 100%). In comparison, as many as 50% of the patients with an adverse early outcome would have been misclassified as low risk by cTnT (cut-off 0.03 ng/mL). Logistic regression indicated a two-fold increase in the risk of an adverse outcome for each increase of hsTnT by 1SD of the natural logarithm (P = 0.037). Patients with elevated hsTnT levels had a reduced probability of long-term survival (P = 0.029 by log-rank); by Cox's regression analysis, hsTnT was the only laboratory biomarker predicting an elevated risk of death over the long term.

CONCLUSION

Highly sensitive troponin T assays may be capable of improving risk stratification of non-high-risk PE.

Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index and troponin testing for the selection of low-risk patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism

BACKGROUND

The combination of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) and troponin testing could help physicians identify appropriate patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) for early hospital discharge.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study included a total of 567 patients from a single center registry with objectively confirmed acute symptomatic PE. On the basis of the PESI, each patient was classified into one of five classes (I-V). At the time of hospital admission, patients had troponin I (cTnI) levels measured. The endpoint of the study was all-cause mortality within 30 days after diagnosis. We calculated the mortality rates in four patient groups: group 1, PESI class I-II plus cTnI < 0.1 ng mL(-1); group 2, PESI classes III-V plus cTnI < 0.1 ng mL(-1); group 3, PESI classes I-II plus cTnI > or = 0.1 ng mL(-1); and group 4, PESI classes III-V plus cTnI > or = 0.1 ng mL(-1).

RESULTS

The study cohort had a 30-day mortality of 10% [95% confidence interval (CI), 7.6-12.5%]. Mortality rates in the four groups were 1.3%, 14.2%, 0% and 15.4%, respectively. Compared with non-elevated cTnl, the low-risk PESI had a higher negative predictive value (NPV) (98.9% vs. 90.8%) and negative likelihood ratio (NLR) (0.1 vs. 0.9) for predicting mortality. The addition of non-elevated cTnI to low-risk PESI did not improve the NPV or the NLR compared with either test alone.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with cTnl testing, PESI classification more accurately identified patients with PE who are at low risk of all-cause death within 30 days of presentation.

Prognostic significance of deep vein thrombosis in patients presenting with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism

RATIONALE

Concomitant deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) has an uncertain prognostic significance.

OBJECTIVES

In a cohort of patients with PE, this study compared the risk of death in those with and those without concomitant DVT.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study of outpatients diagnosed with a first episode of acute symptomatic PE. Patients underwent bilateral lower extremity venous compression ultrasonography to assess for concomitant DVT.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The primary study outcome, all-cause mortality, and the secondary outcome of PE-specific mortality were assessed during the 3 months of follow-up after PE diagnosis. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was done to adjust for significant covariates. Of 707 patients diagnosed with PE, 51.2% (362 of 707) had concomitant DVT and 10.9% (77 of 707) died during follow-up. Patients with concomitant DVT had an increased all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.24 to 3.38; P = 0.005) and PE-specific mortality (adjusted HR, 4.25; 95% CI, 1.61 to 11.25; P = 0.04) compared with those without concomitant DVT. In an external validation cohort of 4,476 patients with acute PE enrolled in the international multicenter RIETE Registry, concomitant DVT remained a significant predictor of all-cause (adjusted HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.28 to 2.15; P < 0.001) and PE-specific mortality (adjusted HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.18 to 3.44; P = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with a first episode of acute symptomatic PE, the presence of concomitant DVT is an independent predictor of death in the ensuing 3 months after diagnosis. Assessment of the thrombotic burden should assist with risk stratification of patients with acute PE.

Short-term prognosis of pulmonary embolism

Risk stratification tools that accurately quantify the prognosis of patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) may be useful in guiding medical decision making. Prospective studies demonstrated that clinical factors, echocardiographic right ventricular dysfunction, and cardiac biomarkers (troponins, brain natriuretic peptides) are independent predictors of short-term mortality in patients with PE. The presence of systemic hypotension or shock carries the highest risk of death, and thrombolysis is usually indicated. Among hemodynamically stable patients, clinical prognostic models, echocardiography, and biomarkers accurately identify low-risk patients with PE who are potential candidates for less costly outpatient care. However, the practical use of these prognostic measures is currently limited by the lack of studies demonstrating a positive impact on patient care. The benefit of risk stratification strategies based on clinical prognostic models, echocardiography, and cardiac biomarkers should be demonstrated in prospective studies before their implementation as decision aid to guide initial treatment can be recommended.