A prognostic nomogram for distal bile duct cancer from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database based on the STROBE compliant

Prediction of survival after pancreatoduodenectomy for distal cholangiocarcinoma: independent external validation of a prognostic model for 3-year overall survival in Sweden

OBJECTIVES

The only treatment with curative potential for distal cholangiocarcinoma (dCCA) is radical surgery which can be complemented with adjuvant chemotherapy. The aim of the present study was to perform an independent external validation of a prognostic model for 3-year overall survival based on routine clinicopathological variables for patients treated with pancreatoduodenectomy for dCCA.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All patients with a histopathological confirmed dCCA that underwent pancreatoduodenectomy in Sweden from 2009 through 2019 were identified in the Swedish National Registry for Pancreatic and Periampullary Cancer. Model performance was estimated using the C-index and calibration plots.

RESULTS

In total 220 patients were included in the study. The median survival was 33 months (IQR 26-40) and 3-year survival rate 47% (95% CI 40-53%). The prognostic model had a C-index of 0.69 (95% CI 0.62-0.72). Calibration plots revealed overestimated risk of death across risk groups in the full cohort. Calibration was good in the subgroup of patients that did not receive adjuvant treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

The prognostic model showed reasonable discriminative ability but some miscalibration likely since the effect of adjuvant treatment is not included in the model. Given that the model was developed in cohorts treated prior to the current adjuvant standard of care the model can be used to estimate baseline risk prior to risk/benefit decision for adjuvant treatment as well as stratification for clinical trials but with a risk to underestimate 3-year overall survival for patients that receive adjuvant treatment.

Management of distal cholangiocarcinoma with arterial involvement: Systematic review and case series on the role of neoadjuvant therapy

BACKGROUND

The use of neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) in distal cholangiocarcinoma (dCCA) with regional arterial or extensive venous involvement, is not widely accepted and evidence is sparse.

AIM

To synthesise evidence on NAT for dCCA and present the experience of a high-volume tertiary-centre managing dCCA with arterial involvement.

METHODS

A systematic review was performed according to PRISMA guidance to identify all studies reporting outcomes of patients with dCCA who received NAT. All patients from 2017 to 2022 who were referred for NAT for dCCA at our centre were retrospectively collected from a prospectively maintained database. Baseline characteristics, NAT type, progression to surgery and oncological outcomes were collected.

RESULTS

Twelve studies were included. The definition of "unresectable" locally advanced dCCA was heterogenous. Four studies reported outcomes for 9 patients who received NAT for dCCA with extensive vascular involvement. R0 resection rate ranged between 0 and 100% but without survival benefit in most cases. Remaining studies considered either NAT in resectable dCCA or inclusive with extrahepatic CCA. The presented case series includes 9 patients (median age 67, IQR 56-74 years, male:female 5:4) referred for NAT for borderline resectable or locally advanced disease. Three patients progressed to surgery and 2 were resected. One patient died at 14 months with evidence of recurrence at 6 months and the other died at 51 months following recurrence 6 months post-operatively.

CONCLUSION

Evidence for benefit of NAT is limited. Consensus on criteria for uniform definition of resectability for dCCA is required. We propose using the established National-Comprehensive-Cancer-Network® criteria for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

Locoregional Therapy for Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: The Role of Intra-Arterial Therapies

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is a rare disease with a rising incidence. While surgical resection is the only curative option, the disease process is often identified in advanced stages, as this malignancy often remains clinically silent in early development. Only one-third of patients are eligible for resection at the time of diagnosis. For patients who cannot undergo resection, intra-arterial therapies are reasonable palliative treatment options; in rare occasions, these may be bridging therapies, as well. The premise of bland embolization and most chemoembolization intra-arterial therapies is that the arterial supply of the tumor is occluded to induce tumor necrosis, while radioembolization utilizes the arterial flow of the tumor to deliver radiation therapy. In this review, we discuss the use of transarterial embolization, transarterial chemoembolization, and selective internal radiation therapy for the treatment of ICC. Phase III randomized controlled clinical trials are difficult to tailor to this extremely rare and aggressive disease, but ultimately, further investigation should be pursued to define the patient population that will derive the greatest benefit from each modality.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival with unresected cholangiocarcinoma undergoing external radiotherapy

Objective

To analyze the prognostic factors of patients with cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) who were unresected and received radiotherapy to establish a nomogram model for the prediction of patient cancer-specific survival (CSS).

Methods

Suitable patient cases were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, survival rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, prognostic factors were analyzed by Lasso, Cox regression, and nomogram was developed based on independent prognostic factors to predict 6 and 12 months CSS. The consistency index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were tested for the predictive efficacy of the model, respectively.

Results

The primary site, tumor size, T-stage, M-stage, and chemotherapy (P < 0.05) were identified as independent risk factors after Cox and Lasso regression analysis. Patients in training cohort had a 6 months CSS rates was 68.6 ± 2.6%, a 12-month CSS rates was 49.0 ± 2.8%. The median CSS time of 12.00 months (95% CI: 10.17-13.83 months). The C-index was 0.664 ± 0.039 for the training cohort and 0.645 ± 0.042 for the validation cohort. The nomogram predicted CSS and demonstrated satisfactory and consistent predictive performance in 6 (73.4 vs. 64.9%) and 12 months (72.2 vs. 64.9%), respectively. The external validation calibration plot is shown AUC for 6- and 12-month compared with AJCC stage was (71.2 vs. 63.0%) and (65.9 vs. 59.8%). Meanwhile, the calibration plot of the nomogram for the probability of CSS at 6 and 12 months indicates that the actual and nomogram predict that the CSS remains largely consistent. DCA showed that using a nomogram to predict CSS results in better clinical decisions compared to the AJCC staging system.

Conclusion

A nomogram model based on clinical prognostic characteristics can be used to provide CSS prediction reference for patients with CCA who have not undergone surgery but have received radiotherapy.

Establishment and validation of a prognostic nomogram for extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

Simple summary

Accurately estimate the prognosis of patients with ECCA is important. However, the TNM system has some limitations, such as low accuracy, exclusion of other factors (e.g., age and sex), and poor performance in predicting individual survival risk. In contrast, a nomogram-based clinical model related to a comprehensive analysis of all risk factors is intuitive and straightforward, facilitating the probabilistic analysis of tumor-related risk factors. Simultaneously, a nomogram can also effectively drive personalized medicine and facilitate clinicians for prognosis prediction. Therefore, we construct a novel practical nomogram and risk stratification system to predict CSS in patients with ECCA.

Background

Accurately estimate the prognosis of patients with extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ECCA) was important, but the existing staging system has limitations. The present study aimed to construct a novel practical nomogram and risk stratification system to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in ECCA patients.

Methods

3415 patients diagnosed with ECCA between 2010 and 2015 were selected from the SEER database and randomized into a training cohort and a validation cohort at 7:3. The nomogram was identified and calibrated using the C-index, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), and calibration plots. Decision curve analysis (DCA), net reclassification index (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and the risk stratification were used to compare the nomogram with the AJCC staging system.

Results

Nine variables were selected to establish the nomogram. The C-index (training cohort:0.785; validation cohort:0.776) and time-dependent AUC (>0.7) showed satisfactory discrimination. The calibration plots also revealed that the nomogram was consistent with the actual observations. The NRI (training cohort: 1-, 2-, and 3-year CSS:0.27, 0.27,0.52; validation cohort:1-,2-,3-year CSS:0.48,0.13,0.34), IDI (training cohort: 1-, 2-, 3-year CSS:0.22,0.18,0.16; validation cohort: 1-,2-,3-year CSS:0.18,0.16,0.17), and DCA indicated that the established nomogram significantly outperformed the AJCC staging system (P<0.05) and had better recognition compared to the AJCC staging system.

Conclusions

We developed a practical prognostic nomogram to help clinicians assess the prognosis of patients with ECCA.

Surgical Treatment of Distal Cholangiocarcinoma

Distal cholangiocarcinoma (dCCA) is a rare malignancy arising from the epithelial cells of the distal biliary tract and has a poor prognosis. dCCA is often clinically silent and patients commonly present with locally advanced and/or distant disease. For patients identified with early stage, resectable disease, surgical resection with negative margins remains the only curative treatment strategy available. However, despite appropriate treatment and diligent surveillance, risk of recurrence remains high with nearly 50% of patients experiencing recurrence at 5 years subsequent to surgical resection; therefore, it is prudent to continue to optimize neoadjuvant and adjuvant therapies in order to reduce the risk of recurrence and improve overall survival. In this review, we discuss the clinical presentation, workup and surgical treatment of dCCA.

The Number of Lymph Nodes Examined is Associated with Survival Outcomes of Neuroendocrine Tumors of the Jejunum and Ileum (siNET): Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model Based on SEER Database

PURPOSE

The number of  neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) is gradually increasing worldwide, and those located in the small intestine (siNETs) are the most common. As some biological and clinical characteristics of tumors of the jejunum and the ileum differ, there is a need to assess the prognosis of individuals with siNETs of the jejunum and ileum separately. We generated a predictive nomogram by assessing individuals with siNETs from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.

METHODS

We used univariate Cox regression analysis to determine both the overall survival (OS) and the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of 2501 patients with a pathological confirmation of siNETs of the jejunum and ileum. To predict 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS of siNETs, a nomogram was generated based on a training cohort and validated with an external cohort. Accuracy and clinical practicability were evaluated separately by Harrell's C-indices, calibration plots, and decision curves. The correlation was examined between dissected lymph nodes and positive lymph nodes.

RESULTS

Dissection of 7 or more lymph nodes significantly improved patient OS and was found to be a protective factor for patients with siNETs. In Cox regression analyses, age, primary site, tumor size, N stage, M stage, and regional lymph node examination were significant predictors in the nomogram. A significant positive correlation was found between dissected lymph nodes and positive lymph nodes.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with 7 or more dissected lymph nodes showed an accurate tumor stage and a better prognosis. Our nomogram accurately predicted the OS of patients with siNETs.

Proposal of the optimal numbers of examined and positive lymph nodes to the 8th edition of American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging for 758 patients with distal cholangiocarcinoma

Introduction

The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) recommended retrieval of at least 12 lymph nodes and firstly classified N category by the number of positive lymph nodes (PLNs) for Distal Cholangiocarcinoma (DCC).

Objective

The end of this cohort study was to explore the optimal cut-off values of the number of examined lymph nodes (ELNs) and PLNs to better stratify patients by utilizing a population-based database.

Methods

A number of 758 patients with DCC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were enrolled in the study and comparing by the survival analysis.

Results

Survival analysis found that patients with ELNs < 5 had a lower 3-year disease-specific survival rate than ELNs ≥ 5 in N0M0 cohort (35.3% vs. 53.0%, P = 0.001) and in M0 cohort (42.7% vs. 32.8%, P = 0.006); survival curves between patients with ELNs < 12 and ELNs ≥ 12 were overlapped in N0M0 cohort (P = 0.256) and in M0 cohort (P = 0.233). Among patients with ELNs ≥ 5, using the optimal cut-off value of the number of PLNs (0, 2) could accurately stratify patients, but the recommendation of the number of PLNs (0, 3) by the AJCC could not.

Conclusions

This study recommended examining at least 5 lymph nodes and defining PLNs = 1–2 as the N1 category and PLNs ≥ 3 as the N2 category, which may better stratify distal cholangiocarcinoma patients and improve the accuracy of the eighth edition AJCC staging.