A new predictive tool consolidating CURB-65 with procalcitonin and albumin to assess short-term mortality in hospitalized elderly patients with infectious disease: A retrospective study of a patient cohort

Procalcitonin, brain natriuretic peptide and albumin as markers to predict prognosis in hospitalized older Japanese patients with a risk of infection

AIM

Whether serum concentration of procalcitonin (PCT), brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and albumin (Alb) have an association with the outcome of hospitalized older patients is unclear. We investigated clinical outcomes and any predictive factors in hospitalized Japanese older patients with a risk of infection.

METHODS

In the retrospective study, 820 Japanese patients were followed up for 30 days or until death. During the observation period, 656 patients survived and 164 patients died. The predictive factors of death were analyzed according to demographic and clinical variables.

RESULTS

The survival rate was decreased as the serum PCT increased from <0.5 to ≥10 ng/mL, as was also the case with BNP from <300 to ≥300 pg./mL, whereas low Alb (<2.5 g/dL) showed a lower survival rate than high Alb (≥2.5 g/dL; P < 0.01). Using the Cox regression model, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) were as follows: PCT 0.5-2 versus <0.5 ng/mL: 1.61(1.04-2.49), PCT 2-10 versus <0.5 ng/mL: 1.91(1.15-3.16), PCT ≥10 versus <0.5 ng/mL: 2.90(1.84-4.59), high BNP 1.26 (0.89-1.76) and low Alb 0.68 (0.52-0.87). The mortality rate increased as the number of scores (PCT + BNP + Alb) increased.

CONCLUSIONS

Concentration-dependent high PCT, high BNP and low Alb were positive risk factors associated with poor prognosis in hospitalized older patients with a risk of infection. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2024; ••: ••-••.

Association of body mass index with long-term outcomes in older adults hospitalized for COVID-19: an observational study

Both underweight and obesity have been associated with poor prognosis in COVID-19. In an older populations of patients hospitalized for SARS-CoV-2 infection, we aimed to evaluate the association between body mass index (BMI) and short and long-term prognosis. Among 434 consecutive patients aged ≥ 70 years and hospitalized for suspected COVID-19 at a university hospital, 219 patients (median age of 83 years, 53% male) testing positive for COVID-19 and for whom BMI was recorded at admission, agreed to participate. Among them, 39 had a BMI < 20 kg/m2, 73 had a BMI between 20 and 24.9 kg/m2 and 107 had a BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2. After adjustment for confounders, BMI < 20 kg/m2 was associated with a higher risk of one-year mortality (hazard ratio (HR) [95% confidence interval]: 1.75 [1.00-3.05], p = 0.048), while BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 was not (HR: 1.04 [0.64-1.69], p = 0.9). However, BMI was linearly correlated with both in-hospital acute respiratory failure (p = 0.02) and cardiovascular events (p = 0.07). In this cohort of older patients hospitalized for COVID-19, low BMI, rather than high BMI, appears as an independent risk factor for death after COVID-19. The pathophysiological patterns underlying this excess mortality remain to be elucidated.

Predicting mortality among patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia based on admission vital sign indices: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia remains a major public health concern. Vital sign indices-shock index (SI; heart rate [HR]/systolic blood pressure [SBP]), shock index age (SIA, SI × age), MinPulse (MP; maximum HR-HR), Pulse max index (PMI; HR/maximum HR), and blood pressure-age index (BPAI; SBP/age)-are better predictors of mortality in patients with trauma compared to traditional vital signs. We hypothesized that these vital sign indices may serve as predictors of mortality in patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia. This study aimed to describe the association between vital sign indices at admission and COVID-19 pneumonia mortality and to modify the CURB-65 with the best performing vital sign index to establish a new mortality prediction tool.

METHODS

This retrospective study was conducted at a tertiary care center in southern Thailand. Adult patients diagnosed with COVID-19 pneumonia were enrolled in this study between January 2020 and July 2022. Patient demographic and clinical data on admission were collected from an electronic database. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve analysis was used to assess the predictive power of the resultant multivariable logistic regression model after univariate and multivariate analyses of variables with identified associations with in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

In total, 251 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia were enrolled in this study. The in-hospital mortality rate was 27.9%. Non-survivors had significantly higher HR, respiratory rate, SIA, and PMI and lower MP and BPAI than survivors. A cutoff value of 51 for SIA (AUC, 0.663; specificity, 80%) was used to predict mortality. When SIA was introduced as a modifier for the CURB-65 score, the new score (the CURSIA score) showed a higher AUC than the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and CURB-65 scores (AUCs: 0.785, 0.780, and 0.774, respectively) without statistical significance.

CONCLUSIONS

SIA and CURSIA scores were significantly associated with COVID-19 pneumonia mortality. These scores may contribute to better patient triage than traditional vital signs.

Influence of Nutritional Parameters on the Evolution, Severity and Prognosis of Critically Ill Patients with COVID-19

This study evaluated the clinical and nutritional status, the evolution over three days, and the relationship between nutritional, inflammatory, and clinical parameters of critically ill patients with COVID-19. A longitudinal study was conducted in the Intensive Care Unit of the Virgen de las Nieves University Hospital in Granada (Spain). The study population comprised patients with a positive polymerase chain reaction test for COVID-19 presenting critical clinical involvement. Clinical outcomes were collected, and inflammatory and nutritional parameters (albumin, prealbumin, transferrin, transferrin saturation index, cholesterol, triglycerides and Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) score) were determined. A total of 202 critical patients with COVID-19 were selected, presenting highly altered clinical-nutritional parameters. The evolution experienced by the patients on the third day of admission was a decrease in albumin (p < 0.001) and an increase in prealbumin (p < 0.001), transferrin (p < 0.002), transferrin saturation index (p < 0.018), and cholesterol (p < 0.001). Low levels of albumin, prealbumin (on the third day) and high CONUT score (on the third day) showed an association with higher mortality. Nutritional variables were inversely correlated with clinical and inflammatory parameters. Critically ill patients with COVID-19 have poor nutritional status related to a poor prognosis of disease severity and mortality.