Development of a Novel Predictive Model for the Clinical Course of Crohn's Disease: Results from the CONNECT Study

A novel location classification system for Crohn's disease based on small bowel involvement: a better predictor of disease progression

BACKGROUND

Small bowel involvement is related to poor prognosis in Crohn's disease (CD), which may be a potential marker to stratify patients with a high risk of progression. This study aimed to establish a novel location classification system for CD and to develop a predictive model for disease progression.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with non-stricturing/non-penetrating CD were retrospectively included in the Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University (Guangzhou, P. R. China) between January 2012 and January 2018. Patients were classified into two groups according to disease location: small bowel involvement group and isolated colon group. The primary outcome was disease progression to stricturing or penetrating phenotypes. Progression-free survival was estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis and Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

A total of 463 patients were analysed, with a median follow-up time of 55.3 months. Patients with small bowel involvement had a higher risk of disease progression than those with isolated colon disease (hazard ratio = 1.998, P = 0.007), while no differences were found between Montreal location classification and disease progression. Median progression-free survival was higher in the isolated colon group than in the small bowel involvement group (84.5 vs 77.3 months, P = 0.006). Four independent factors associated with disease progression were identified: small bowel involvement, duration of onset of >1 year, deep mucosal ulcer, and C-reactive protein levels of ≥10 mg/L (all P < 0.05). The nomogram model based on these factors showed good performance in predicting disease progression, with a C-index of 0.746 (95% confidence interval, 0.707-0.785).

CONCLUSIONS

Classifying CD based on small bowel involvement and isolated colon was superior to the Montreal location classification for predicting disease progression.

Mathematical Models Including microRNA Levels of Mesenteric Adipose Tissue May Predict Postoperative Relapse in Crohn's Disease Patients

Background and Aims

Recent evidence suggests that the mesenteric adipose tissue (MAT) near the affected intestine may play a role in Crohn's disease (CD) pathophysiology. Modulation of several transcripts has already been identified in the MAT of CD in the literature. Therefore, our aim was to validate the microRNA (miRNA) transcript levels and their target genes in the MAT of active CD patients and correlate them with clinical and epidemiological data.

Methods

Samples from the MAT of surgical specimens from 25 active CD patients were obtained. The control group comprised fifteen patients who underwent surgery for other diseases, except inflammatory bowel diseases. Transcriptional levels of miRNA and their target genes were assessed by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. The correlation between transcripts and clinical characteristics was obtained using multiple linear regression. The mathematical models (M) underwent a statistical filter to ensure robustness and reliability (P value < .05; adjusted R-squared (Rˆ2)> .99; correct predictions of more than 60%).

Results

miRNA-650 and miRNA-29c were upregulated in the MAT of CD compared to the control group (P < .0001 and P = .0032, respectively), besides presenting decreased levels of their target genes. Two were target genes of the miRNA-650: glutamine-fructose-6-phosphate transaminase 2 (P = .012) and aldehyde dehydrogenase 4 family (P = .0035); and 4 were targets of the miRNA-29c: cell death-inducing DFFA-like effector c (P = .001), E2F transcription factor-1 (P = .007), hypoxia-inducible factor 3 subunit alpha (P = .0029), and pyruvate dehydrogenase kinase 4 (P = .0054). We found 2 M with statistical strength and robustness. The performance test identified one model with 100% accuracy for predicting the month of recurrence and determining patients with less risk of early relapse after surgery.

Conclusion

We demonstrate that miRNA-650 and miRNA-29c and some of their target genes, besides clinical and epidemiological variables, may be useful in a model to predict when disease relapse may occur in CD patients who underwent surgery. These findings constitute a potential tool to guide postoperative clinical management.

Middle small-bowel segment Lewis score may predict long-term outcomes among patients with quiescent Crohn's disease

Background

Video capsule endoscopy (VCE) has been proven to accurately diagnose small-bowel inflammation and predict flares among patients with quiescent Crohn's disease (CD). However, data regarding its predictive role in this population over an extended follow-up are scarce.

Objectives

To predict clinical exacerbation and to assess the yield of Lewis score in identifying CD patients with future clinical exacerbation during an extended follow-up (>24 months).

Design

A post hoc analysis study.

Methods

Adult patients with quiescent small-bowel CD who were followed with VCE, inflammatory biomarkers and magnetic resonance enterography in a prospective study (between 2013 and 2018). We extracted extended clinical data (up to April 2022). The primary composite outcome (i.e. clinical exacerbation) was defined as intestinal surgery, endoscopic dilation, CD-related admission, corticosteroid administration, or biological/immunomodulator treatment change during follow-up.

Results

Of the 61 patients in the study [median age 29 (24-37) years, male 57.4%, biologic treatment 46.7%], 18 patients met the primary outcome during an extended follow-up [median 58.0 (34.5-93.0) months]. On univariable analysis, complicated [hazard ratio (HR) 7.348, p = 0.002] and stricturing disease phenotype (HR 5.305, p = 0.001) were associated with higher risk for clinical exacerbation during follow-up. A baseline VCE middle small-bowel segment Lewis score (midLS) ⩾ 135 identified patients with future exacerbation [AUC (area under the curve) 0.767, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.633-0.902, p = 0.001, HR 6.317, 93% negative predictive value], whereas the AUC of the conventional Lewis score was 0.734 (95% CI: 0.589-0.879, p = 0.004). Sensitivity analysis restricted to patients with either complicated (n = 34) or stricturing (n = 26) disease phenotype revealed that midLS still predicted clinical exacerbation during follow-up (AUC 0.747/0.753, respectively), in these patients.

Conclusion

MidLS predicts treatment failure in quiescent CD patients (median follow-up of 5 years) independently of disease phenotype.

New pattern of individualized management of chronic diseases: focusing on inflammatory bowel diseases and looking to the future

Non-infectious chronic diseases, especially inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs), hypertension, and diabetes mellitus, are characterized by a prolonged and multisystemic course, and their incidence increases annually, usually causing serious economic burden and psychological stress for patients. Therefore, these diseases deserve scientific and consistent disease management. In addition, the lack of a comprehensive "early disease clues tracking-personalized treatment system-follow-up" model in hospitals also exacerbates this dilemma. Based on these facts, we propose an individualized prediction management system for IBDs based on chronic diseases, focusing on the established IBDs-related prediction models and summarizing their advantages and disadvantages. We call on researchers to pay attention to the integration of models with clinical practice and the continuous correction of models to achieve truly individualized medical treatment for chronic diseases, thus providing substantial value for the rapid diagnosis and adequate treatment of chronic diseases such as IBDs, which follow the "relapse-remission" disease model, and realizing long-term drug use and precise disease management for patients. The goal is to achieve a new level of chronic disease management by scientifically improving long-term medication, precise disease management, and individualized medical treatment, effectively prolonging the remission period and reducing morbidity and disability rates.

Long-term Outcomes and Factors Predicting Outcome of IPAA When Used Intentionally for Well-Defined Crohn's Disease

BACKGROUND

Crohn's disease is considered a contraindication for IPAA. In our prior study, when IPAA was used intentionally for well-defined Crohn's disease, we found a high incidence of recurrent disease with a low incidence of pouch failure.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to replicate these findings in a larger cohort over a longer period.

DESIGN

Retrospective review of a prospective IBD registry.

SETTINGS

Large IBD referral center.

PATIENTS

Patients with preoperative colorectal Crohn's disease requiring surgery were included in the study.

INTERVENTION

IPAA.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Long-term Crohn's disease recurrence, pouch failure, and pouch function.

RESULTS

Forty-six patients were identified. Crohn's disease was diagnosed on the basis of perianal disease (n = 18; 39%), small-bowel disease (n = 16; 35%), noncaseating granuloma (n = 10; 22%), and discontinuous inflammation (colorectal skip lesions) (n = 11; 24%). After a median follow-up of 93 (7-291) months, 22 patients (48%) developed recurrent Crohn's disease based on afferent limb disease (n = 14; 30%) or pouch fistulizing disease (n = 8; 18%). Only 4 patients (9%) developed pouch failure. No clinical factor was associated with Crohn's disease recurrence. Young age at the time of surgery and short duration of disease before IPAA were associated with pouch fistula recurrence ( p = 0.003 and p = 0.03, respectively). Most patients (86%) reported excellent continence, with no urgency (67%) and median stool frequency of 6 (range, 3-9) per day.

LIMITATION

Retrospective nature and relatively small sample size.

CONCLUSION

This largest reported series examining the intentional use of IPAA in Crohn's disease showed a high (48%) incidence of postoperative Crohn's disease with a low (9%) incidence of pouch failure. Young age and short disease course before surgery were risk factors for poor outcomes. Highly motivated patients with colorectal Crohn's disease may consider IPAA and avoid a definitive ileostomy. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/C171 .

RESULTADOS A LARGO PLAZO Y FACTORES PREDICTORES DE RESULTADOS DE LA ANASTOMOSIS ILEOANAL CON RESERVORIO CUANDO SE USA INTENCIONALMENTE PARA LA ENFERMEDAD DE CROHN BIEN DEFINIDA

ANTECEDENTES: La enfermedad de Crohn (EC) se considera una contraindicación para la anastomosis ileoanal con reservorio (IPAA). Nuestro estudio previo de IPAA cuando fue usada intencionalmente para EC bien definida mostró una alta incidencia de enfermedad recurrente con una baja incidencia de falla del reservorio.OBJETIVO: Replicar estos hallazgos en una cohorte más grande durante un período más largo.DISEÑO: Revisión retrospectiva de una base de datos prospectiva de enfermedad inflamatoria intestinal.ESCENARIO: Un centro grande de referencia de EII.PACIENTES: EC colorrectal preoperatoria con necesidad de tratamiento quirúrgico.INTERVENCIÓN: Anastomosis ileoanal con reservorio.RESULTADOS PRINCIPALES: Recurrencia de EC a largo plazo, falla del reservorio y función del reservorio.RESULTADOS: Cuarenta y seis pacientes fueron identificados. El diagnóstico de EC se basó en enfermedad perianal (n = 18; 39%), enfermedad del intestino delgado (n = 16; 35%), granuloma no caseificante (n = 10; 22%) e inflamación discontinua (lesiones salteadas colorrectales) (n = 11; 24%). Después de una mediana de seguimiento de 93 (7-291) meses, 22 (48 %) pacientes desarrollaron EC recurrente debido a enfermedad del asa aferente (n = 14; 30%) o enfermedad fistulizante del reservorio (n = 8; 18%). Solo 4 (9%) pacientes desarrollaron falla del reservorio. Ningún factor clínico se asoció con la recurrencia de EC. La edad joven en el momento de la cirugía y la corta duración de la enfermedad antes de IPAA se asociaron con la recurrencia de la fístula del reservorio ( p = 0.003 y p = 0.03, respectivamente). El recuento de plaquetas preoperatorio más alto fue la única característica clínica significativamente asociada con el fracaso del reservorio ( p = 0.02). La mayoría de los pacientes (86%) reportaron una continencia excelente, sin urgencia (67%) y una mediana de frecuencia evacuatoria de 6 (rango, 3-9) por día.LIMITACIONES: Naturaleza retrospectiva y tamaño de muestra relativamente pequeño.CONCLUSIÓN: Esta serie, la más grande reportada que examina el uso intencional de IPAA en la EC mostró una incidencia alta (48Rectal Cancer: Clinical and Molecular Predictors of a Complete Response to Total Neoadjuvant Therapy%) de EC posoperatoria con una incidencia baja (9%) de falla del reservorio. La edad joven y el curso corto de la enfermedad antes de la cirugía fueron factores de riesgo para pobres resultados. Pacientes altamente motivados con EC colorrectal pueden considerar una IPAA y evitar una ileostomía permanente. Consulte Video Resumen en http://links.lww.com/DCR/C171 . (Traducción-Dr. Jorge Silva Velazco ).

Predicting Mucosal Healing in Crohn's Disease: A Nomogram Model Developed from a Retrospective Cohort

Purpose

Mucosal healing (MH) has become a therapeutic end point for Crohn's disease (CD). The purpose of this study was to identify potential risk factors responsible for a lower probability of mucosal healing in CD. It also aimed to create and validate a noninvasive tool for predicting mucosal healing in CD to aid clinical decision-making.

Patients and Methods

We established a derivation cohort diagnosed with CD, in which endoscopic examination was performed before and after treatment at the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University between January 2010 and June 2021. Patient data including demographic and clinical characteristics and treatment details were collected. The achievement of mucosal healing (without ulceration on endoscopic examination) after treatment was the endpoint observed during follow-up. We performed logistic regression analysis to identify factors associated with mucosal healing. These factors were used to develop a model (CD mucosal healing prediction nomogram) to predict mucosal healing in CD. External validation was performed using a new cohort of 60 patients from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University between January 2012 and June 2021.

Results

A total of 331 patients were included in the derivation cohort. We found the following factors to be independently associated with mucosal healing after treatment: disease course <11 months, ulcer size <0.5 cm, Harvey-Bradshaw Index score <9, infliximab treatment, and non-exclusive use of 5-aminosalicylic acid. The model incorporating these factors achieved good discrimination, calibration, and clinical decision curve analysis results on internal validation (C-index: 0.788, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.74-0.84). The external validation cohort also demonstrated good discrimination (C-index: 0.785, 95% CI: 0.68-0.90) and calibration.

Conclusion

The CD mucosal healing prediction nomogram model demonstrated good reliability and validated. It can potentially be developed into a simple and clinically useful tool for predicting mucosal healing in CD.

Combination of serological biomarkers and clinical features to predict mucosal healing in Crohn's disease: a multicenter cohort study

PURPOSE

Mucosal healing (MH) has become the treatment goal of patients with Crohn's disease (CD). This study aims to develop a noninvasive and reliable clinical tool for individual evaluation of mucosal healing in patients with Crohn's disease.

METHODS

A multicenter retrospective cohort was established. Clinical and serological variables were collected. Separate risk factors were incorporated into a binary logistic regression model. A primary model and a simple model were established, respectively. The model performance was evaluated with C-index, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and accuracy. Internal validation was performed in patients with small intestinal lesions.

RESULTS

A total of 348 consecutive patients diagnosed with CD who underwent endoscopic examination and review after treatment from January 2010 to June 2021 were composed in the derivation cohort, and 112 patients with small intestinal lesions were included in the validation cohort. The following variables were independently associated with the MH and were subsequently included into the primary prediction model: PLR (platelet to lymphocyte ratio), CAR (C-reactive protein to albumin ratio), ESR (erythrocyte sedimentation rate), HBI (Harvey-Bradshaw Index) score and infliximab treatment. The simple model only included factors of PLR, CAR and ESR. The primary model performed better than the simple one in C-index (87.5% vs. 83.0%, p = 0.004). There was no statistical significance between these two models in sensitivity (70.43% vs. 62.61%, p = 0.467), specificity (87.12% vs. 80.69%, p = 0.448), PPV (72.97% vs. 61.54%, p = 0.292), NPV (85.65% vs. 81.39%, p = 0.614), and accuracy (81.61% vs. 74.71%, p = 0.303). The primary model had good calibration and high levels of explained variation and discrimination in validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

This model can be used to predict MH in post-treatment patients with CD. It can also be used as an indication of endoscopic surveillance to evaluate mucosal healing in patients with CD after treatment.

Radiology plus ileocolonoscopy versus radiology alone in Crohn's disease: prognosis prediction and mutual agreement

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The optimal tools for monitoring Crohn's disease (CD) are controversial. We compared radiology plus ileocolonoscopy and radiology alone in terms of prognosis prediction and evaluated the agreement between radiologic and ileocolonoscopic findings in patients with CD.

METHODS

Patients with CD who were followed up with computed tomography enterography (CTE) or magnetic resonance enterography (MRE) alone or CTE or MRE plus ileocolonoscopy were retrospectively recruited. Time to relapse was investigated to evaluate the difference in prognosis using the log-rank and Cox regression tests, and the agreement between radiologic and ileocolonoscopic findings was determined using a kappa value.

RESULTS

A total of 501 patients with CD in clinical remission who underwent CTE or MRE and/or ileocolonoscopy were analyzed. Of these, 372 (74.3%) patients underwent CTE or MRE alone and 129 (25.7%) patients underwent CTE or MRE plus ileocolonoscopy. The cumulative maintenance rate of clinical remission between the two groups was not significantly different (p = 0.526, log-rank test). In multivariate analysis, age <40 years (hazard ratio [HR], 2.756; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.263 to 6.013) and a history of steroid use (HR, 2.212; 95% CI, 1.258 to 3.577) were found to independently predict an increased risk for clinical relapse in patients with CD in clinical remission. Radiologic and ileocolonoscopic findings had a moderate degree of agreement (κ = 0.401, -0.094 to 0.142). The comparison of agreement between radiologic and ileocolonoscopic findings was the highest in the anastomotic site (κ = 0.749, -0.168 to 0.377).

CONCLUSION

Radiology plus ileocolonoscopy was not superior to radiology alone in predicting the prognosis of CD.

Higher adalimumab maintenance regimen is more effective than standard dose in anti-TNF experienced Crohn's disease patients

BACKGROUND

Many Crohn's disease patients treated with anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapies suffer from loss of response over time and require dose escalation. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of treating anti-TNF experienced Crohn's disease patients with higher maintenance regimens of adalimumab.

METHODS

In a retrospective observational study, Crohn's disease patients receiving adalimumab were categorized according to their maintenance regimen; 40 mg weekly, 80 mg every other week or greater were defined as a high-dose maintenance regimen and 40 mg every other week was defined as a standard maintenance regimen. The primary outcome was time to treatment failure.

RESULTS

Thirty-nine patients were started on high-dose regimens following induction and 40 patients received the standard regimen. According to a Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis, time to treatment failure was significantly longer in patients in the high-dose group (P = 0.0015). Patients on high-dose adalimumab had a lower treatment failure rate (hazard ratio 0.21; P = 0.0005) when compared to patients on the standard regimen, after adjusting for induction dose and concomitant immunomodulator use. No difference in adverse events was identified between the groups (31 vs. 30%; P = 0.94).

CONCLUSION

High-dose maintenance regimens were more effective than the standard adalimumab maintenance protocol with better short and long-term clinical outcomes.

Improving prediction of disease outcome for inflammatory bowel disease: progress through systems medicine

Introduction: Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) are lifelong conditions causing relapsing inflammation of the intestine. In the absence of a cure, clinical management of IBDs is extremely challenging since they present with a wide range of phenotypes and disease behaviors. Hence, there is an urgent need for markers that could guide physicians in making the right choice of the rapidly growing treatment options toward a personalized care that could improve the overall outcome.Areas covered: In this review, the authors summarize existing biomarkers in IBD, discuss the challenges with the development of prognostic biomarkers and propose alternative options such as focusing on the prediction of the response to individual treatments, i.e. predictive biomarkers. The problems related to developing disease prognostic and predictive biomarkers in the field of IBDs are discussed including the difficulties in dealing with phenotypic heterogeneity particularly when performing studies in a real-life setting. The authors reviewed literature from PubMed.Expert opinion: Systems biology provides potential solutions to this problem by offering an unbiased, holistic approach to adjusting for variation in larger datasets thereby increasing the chances of identifying true associations between molecular profiles and clinical phenotypes.

Prognostic biomarkers to identify patients likely to develop severe Crohn's disease: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Identification of biomarkers that predict severe Crohn's disease is an urgent unmet research need, but existing research is piecemeal and haphazard.

OBJECTIVE

To identify biomarkers that are potentially able to predict the development of subsequent severe Crohn's disease.

DESIGN

This was a prognostic systematic review with meta-analysis reserved for those potential predictors with sufficient existing research (defined as five or more primary studies).

DATA SOURCES

PubMed and EMBASE searched from inception to 1 January 2016, updated to 1 January 2018.

REVIEW METHODS

Eligible studies were studies that compared biomarkers in patients who did or did not subsequently develop severe Crohn's disease. We excluded biomarkers that had insufficient research evidence. A clinician and two statisticians independently extracted data relating to predictors, severe disease definitions, event numbers and outcomes, including odds/hazard ratios. We assessed risk of bias. We searched for associations with subsequent severe disease rather than precise estimates of strength. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed separately for odds ratios.

RESULTS

In total, 29,950 abstracts yielded just 71 individual studies, reporting 56 non-overlapping cohorts. Five clinical biomarkers (Montreal behaviour, age, disease duration, disease location and smoking), two serological biomarkers (anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibodies and anti-flagellin antibodies) and one genetic biomarker (nucleotide-binding oligomerisation domain-containing protein 2) displayed statistically significant prognostic potential. Overall, the strongest association with subsequent severe disease was identified for Montreal B2 and B3 categories (odds ratio 4.09 and 6.25, respectively).

LIMITATIONS

Definitions of severe disease varied widely, and some studies confounded diagnosis and prognosis. Risk of bias was rated as 'high' in 92% of studies overall. Some biomarkers that are used regularly in daily practice, for example C-reactive protein, were studied too infrequently for meta-analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Research for individual biomarkers to predict severe Crohn's disease is scant, heterogeneous and at a high risk of bias. Despite a large amount of potential research, we encountered relatively few biomarkers with data sufficient for meta-analysis, identifying only eight biomarkers with potential predictive capability.

FUTURE WORK

We will use existing data sets to develop and then validate a predictive model based on the potential predictors identified by this systematic review. Contingent on the outcome of that research, a prospective external validation may prove clinically desirable.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016029363.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 45. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Changing phenotype, early clinical course and clinical predictors of inflammatory bowel disease in Sri Lanka: a retrospective, tertiary care-based, multi-centre study

Background

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is increasing in the Asia-Pacific region, with changes in disease phenotype and course. We aimed to assess the changing phenotypes of IBD over ten years, describe the early clinical course (ECC) and identify the clinical predictors (CP) of poor outcomes among a large, multi-centre, cohort of Sri Lankan IBD patients.

Methods

We included patients [diagnosed between June/2003–December/2009-Group-1(G1), January/2010–June/2016-Group-2(G2)] with ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn disease (CD) from five national-referral centres. Changing phenotype from G1 to G2, ECC (disease duration < 3-years) and CP of poor outcomes (disease duration ≥ 1-year) was assessed. Poor outcomes were complicated-disease (CompD-stricturing/penetrating-CD, extensive-UC/pancolitis, perforation/bleeding/colectomy/malignancy) and treatment-refractory disease (TRD-frequently-relapsing, steroid-dependent/refractory and biologic use).

Results

375 (UC-227, CD-148) patients were recruited. Both G1/G2 had more UC than CD (77% vs 23%, 54.5 vs 45.5 respectively, p < 0.01). Increase of CD from G1-to-G2 was significant (23–45.4%, p < 0.001). In both groups, left-sided colitis (E2) and ileo-colonic (L3)/non-stricturing, non-penetrating disease behaviour (B1) CD predominated. Extensive-colitis (E3) (36.4% vs 22.7, p < 0.05) and stricturing-CD (B2) (26.1% vs 4.0%, p < 0.01) was commoner in G1. ECC was assessed in 173-patients (UC-94, CD-79). Aggressive disease behaviour and TRD were low among both UC and CD. Immunomodulator use was significantly higher among CD than UC (61.5% vs 29.0% respectively, p < 0.01). Anti-TNF use was low among both groups (UC-3.2%, CD-7.7%). Disease complications among UC [bleeding (2.1%), malignancy-(1.1%), surgery-(2.1%)] and CD [stricture-(3.9%), perforation-(1.3%), malignancy-(1.3%), surgery-(8.9%)] were generally low. CPs were assessed in 271-patients (UC-163, CD-108). Having a family history of IBD (for UC), extraintestinal manifestation (EIM), severe disease at presentation, being in younger age categories and severe disease at presentation, (for both UC and CD) predicted poor outcomes.

Conclusion

There was an increase in CD over time without change in disease phenotype for both UC and CD. A relatively benign ECC was observed. Family history (UC), EIMs (UC/CD), severe disease at presentation (UC/CD), younger age (CD/UC) CPs of poor outcomes.

Development of a Clinical and Genetic Prediction Model for Early Intestinal Resection in Patients with Crohn's Disease: Results from the IMPACT Study

Early intestinal resection in patients with Crohn's disease (CD) is necessary due to a severe and complicating disease course. Herein, we aim to predict which patients with CD need early intestinal resection within 3 years of diagnosis, according to a tree-based machine learning technique. The single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotype data for 337 CD patients recruited from 15 hospitals were typed using the Korea Biobank Array. For external validation, an additional 126 CD patients were genotyped. The predictive model was trained using the 102 candidate SNPs and seven sets of clinical information (age, sex, cigarette smoking, disease location, disease behavior, upper gastrointestinal involvement, and perianal disease) by employing a tree-based machine learning method (CatBoost). The importance of each feature was measured using the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) model. The final model comprised two clinical parameters (age and disease behavior) and four SNPs (rs28785174, rs60532570, rs13056955, and rs7660164). The combined clinical-genetic model predicted early surgery more accurately than a clinical-only model in both internal (area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), 0.878 vs. 0.782; n = 51; p < 0.001) and external validation (AUROC, 0.836 vs. 0.805; n = 126; p < 0.001). Identification of genetic polymorphisms and clinical features enhanced the prediction of early intestinal resection in patients with CD.

Clostridium Difficile and Increased Risk of Surgery in Crohn's Disease. Can Early Microbial Signatures Forecast Risk of Disease Progression?

Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is associated with dysbiosis and a higher risk of complications in patients with ulcerative colitis. This study reveals a possible association between CDI, dysbiosis, suppression of methionine synthesis, and increased risk of surgery in Crohn’s disease.

Development of screening tools to predict the risk of recurrence and related complications following anal fistula surgery: protocol for a prospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Postoperative recurrence and related complications are common and related to poor outcomes in patients with anal fistula (AF). Due to being associated with short-term and long-term cure rates, perioperative complications have received widespread attention following AF surgery. This study aims to identify a set of predictive factors to develop risk prediction models for recurrence and related complications following AF surgery. We plan to develop and validate risk prediction models, using information collected through a WeChat patient-reported questionnaire system combined with clinical, laboratory and imaging findings from the perioperative period until 3-6 months following AF surgery.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a prospective hospital-based cohort study using a linked database of collected health data as well as the follow-up outcomes for all adult patients who suffered from AF at a tertiary referral hospital in Shanghai, China. We will perform logistic regression models to predict anal fistula recurrence (AFR) as well as related complications (eg, wound haemorrhage, faecal impaction, urinary retention, delayed wound healing and unplanned hospitalisation) during and after AF surgery, and machine learning approaches will also be applied to develop risk prediction models. This prospective study aims to develop the first risk prediction models for AFR and related complications using multidimensional variables. These tools can be used to warn, motivate and empower patients to avoid some modifiable risk factors to prevent postoperative complications early. This study will also provide alternative tools for the early screening of high-risk patients with AFR and related complications, helping surgeons better understand the aetiology and outcomes of AF in an earlier stage.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of Shuguang Hospital affiliated with Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine (approval number: 2019-699-54-01). The results of this study will be submitted to international scientific peer-reviewed journals or conferences in surgery, anorectal surgery or anorectal diseases.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ChiCTR1900025069; Pre-results.

Are We Ready to Include Prognostic Factors in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Trials?

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a chronic inflammatory disease characterized by periodic episodes of flares and remission. Treatment is aimed at healing the bowel, to ultimately decrease hospitalization rates, need for surgeries and overall disability. In more recent years, treatment has transitioned from a reactive approach to a more proactive approach focusing on treating disease earlier and preventing complications. The challenge lies in identifying patients who need more intensive treatment early and trying to determine who will respond to which medications. Biomarkers and clinical activity scoring systems can be used to help guide treatment decisions. However, IBDs are very heterogeneous and the significance of these biomarkers can be difficult to discern on an individual basis. Recently, prognostic tools have been developed to aid in determining a patient's prognosis as well as their likelihood to respond to different therapies. Despite this progress, clinical trials have not routinely adopted this approach in their study design. Tools for stratification of disease severity and to personalize treatment choices have the potential to improve our studies both by enriching the patient population and further guiding clinical decision making in practice. This review aims to discuss biomarkers, current prognosticating tools, tools that determine response to therapy and how incorporating these into clinical trials will be beneficial.

Development of a prognostic model for one-year surgery risk in Crohn’s disease patients: A retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Accelerated therapeutic treatment should be considered in patients with progressive Crohn’s disease (CD) to prevent complications as well as surgery. Therefore, screening for risk factors and predicting the need for early surgery are of great importance in clinical practice.

AIM

To establish a model to predict CD-related early surgery.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study collecting data from CD patients diagnosed at our inflammatory bowel disease center from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2016. All data were randomly stratified into a training set and a testing set at a ratio of 8:2. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted with receiver operating characteristic curves constructed and areas under the curve calculated. This model was further validated with calibration and discrimination estimated. A nomogram was finally developed.

RESULTS

A total of 1002 eligible patients were enrolled with a mean follow-up period of 53.54 ± 13.10 mo. In total, 24.25% of patients received intestinal surgery within 1 year after diagnosis due to complications or disease relapse. Disease behavior (B2: OR [odds ratio] = 6.693, P < 0.001; B3: OR = 14.405, P < 0.001), smoking (OR = 4.135, P < 0.001), body mass index (OR = 0.873, P < 0.001) and C-reactive protein (OR = 1.022, P = 0.001) at diagnosis, previous perianal (OR = 9.483, P < 0.001) or intestinal surgery (OR = 8.887, P < 0.001), maximum bowel wall thickness (OR = 1.965, P < 0.001), use of biologics (OR = 0.264, P < 0.001), and exclusive enteral nutrition (OR = 0.089, P < 0.001) were identified as independent significant factors associated with early intestinal surgery. A prognostic model was established and further validated. The receiver operating characteristic curves and calculated areas under the curves (94.7%) confirmed an ideal predictive ability of this model with a sensitivity of 75.92% and specificity of 95.81%. A nomogram was developed to simplify the use of the predictive model in clinical practice.

CONCLUSION

This prognostic model can effectively predict 1-year risk of CD-related intestinal surgery, which will assist in screening progressive CD patients and tailoring therapeutic management.

Long-term outcome of immunomodulator use in pediatric patients with inflammatory bowel disease

OBJECTIVES

In the era where new biologicals are entering the market, the place of immunomodulators in the treatment of pediatric inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) needs to be reassessed.

METHODS

All children with Crohn's disease (CD) or ulcerative colitis (UC) followed at our center over the last 10 years were reviewed. Children who received conventional therapy (including 5-aminosalicylates, steroids, thiopurines and methotrexate) since diagnosis were included. Primary outcome was steroid-free clinical remission without need for rescue therapy (biologics or surgery) at 6 and 12 months after diagnosis and at last follow-up. Cox proportional hazard modelling was performed to determine variables at diagnosis associated with outcomes.

RESULTS

In total, 176 IBD patients (121 CD, 55 UC) were identified with a median follow-up of 4.6 [2.0-8.1] years. Remission rates were 79.6% at month 6, but decreased to 60.2% at month 12, and 31.8% at last follow-up. Higher CRP [1.006 (1.001-1.011)], lower albumin [1.050 (1.012-1.086)] and growth impairment [1.214 (1.014-1.373)] in CD patients and higher PUCAI score [1.038 (1.006-1.072)] and low iron [1.023 (1.003-1.043)] in UC patients were associated with treatment failure (all p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Only 32% pediatric IBD patients will remain free of biologics or surgery 5-years after diagnosis. Especially children with a high disease burden at diagnosis were more likely to fail conventional therapy.

Online training on how to diagnose anoperineal lesions of Crohn's disease: Do pictures matter? A nationwide randomized study

Any gastroenterologist must be trained to properly diagnose anoperineal lesions in patients with Crohn's disease (APLOC). The aim of this study was to establish whether adding pictures would improve teaching effectiveness of the diagnosis of APLOC to French gastroenterology trainees.

METHOD

Trainees were asked to answer a first web-based survey consisting of evaluating 12 pictures of APLOC with a closed answer questionnaire. They were then randomized in 2 groups. Group A received an online teaching with typical pictures and APLOC definitions and group B definitions only. Trainees were asked again seven days later to answer a second survey with 12 other pictures of APLOC and 14 experts also answered this survey. Diagnostic scores were expressed in %. The primary endpoint was the comparison of the score of survey 2 between the two groups of trainees. Secondary endpoints were to compare results of survey 2 between trainees of both groups and experts, and assess diagnosis of each lesion.

RESULTS

Two hundred fourty eight trainees among 465 answered survey 1, and 195 survey 2. The diagnostic score was 71.9% for groups A and B and 74.6% for experts (differences NS). After training diagnosis of ulceration was 72% for group A and 72.9% for group B, fistulae 85.2% versus 85.8%, erythema 44.1% vs. 55.6%, anoperineal scars 67.5% vs. 65.6%, and abscess 100% (differences NS).

CONCLUSION

There was no difference between the two teaching methods. Further research should be performed aiming at improving teaching material and quotation baremes.

Prognosticating the Course of Inflammatory Bowel Disease

Both Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis are inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) that can lead to progressive irreversible bowel damage. Selecting the most appropriate therapy for patients is a challenge because not all patients diagnosed with IBD have complications, and the amount of time to develop a complication is different for individuals. Models using patient characteristics, genetics, and immune responses help identify those patients who require early aggressive therapy with a goal to modify their disease course. Future research will help identify the role that the microbiome, metagenomics, metaproteomics, and microRNAs play in a patient prognosis.

Challenges in IBD Research: Precision Medicine

Precision medicine is part of five focus areas of the Challenges in IBD research document, which also includes preclinical human IBD mechanisms, environmental triggers, novel technologies, and pragmatic clinical research. The Challenges in IBD Research document provides a comprehensive overview of current gaps in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) research and delivers actionable approaches to address them. It is the result of a multidisciplinary input from scientists, clinicians, patients, and funders, and represents a valuable resource for patient centric research prioritization. In particular, the precision medicine section is focused on highlighting the main gap areas that must be addressed to get closer to treatments tailored to the biological and clinical characteristics of each patient, which is the aim of precision medicine. The main gaps were identified in: 1) understanding and predicting the natural history of IBD: disease susceptibility, activity, and behavior; 2) predicting disease course and treatment response; and 3) optimizing current and developing new molecular technologies. Suggested approaches to bridge these gaps include prospective longitudinal cohort studies to identify and validate precision biomarkers for prognostication of disease course, and prediction and monitoring of treatment response. To achieve this, harmonization across studies is key as well as development of standardized methods and infrastructure. The implementation of state-of-the-art molecular technologies, systems biology and machine learning approaches for multi-omics and clinical data integration and analysis will be also fundamental. Finally, randomized biomarker-stratified trials will be critical to evaluate the clinical utility of validated signatures and biomarkers in improving patient outcomes and cost-effective care.

Utility of video capsule endoscopy for longitudinal monitoring of Crohn's disease activity in the small bowel: a prospective study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

This prospective, multicenter study evaluated small-bowel capsule endoscopy (CE) for the longitudinal assessment of mucosal inflammation in subjects with Crohn's disease (CD).

METHODS

Subjects with known CD underwent clinical evaluation with ileocolonoscopy and CE at baseline and 6-month follow-up. Small-bowel patency was confirmed before CE at both time points. The Simple Endoscopic Score for CD (SES-CD) was used for ileocolonoscopy, and the Lewis score and the CE CD Endoscopic Index of Severity (CECDEIS) were used for CE. Clinical scoring indices included the Physician Global Assessment (PGA), CD Activity Index (CDAI), and Harvey-Bradshaw Index (HBI). Laboratory markers including C-reactive protein, fecal calprotectin, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate were collected at baseline and follow-up. Correlation between endoscopic scores and clinical parameters were measured using Spearman tests.

RESULTS

A total of 74 subjects were enrolled, of whom 53 (72%) completed endoscopic procedures at baseline and 6-month follow-up. The SES-CD ileocolonoscopy score correlated with the Lewis score (P < .001, ρ = .59) and CECDEIS capsule score (P = .002, ρ = .48). None of the 3 endoscopic scores correlated with PGA, CDAI, HBI, C-reactive protein, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, or fecal calprotectin. Approximately 85% of subjects had proximal small-bowel inflammation identified on CE. There were no CE-related adverse events.

CONCLUSIONS

There was high correlation between CE and ileocolonoscopy scores for the assessment of mucosal disease activity over time; however, there were no correlations between endoscopic scores and clinical parameters. The use of serial CE for the assessment of small-bowel CD is feasible and valid. (Clinical trial registration number: NCT01942720.).

Colon capsule endoscopy for inflammatory bowel disease

Colon capsule endoscopy (CCE) is designed for direct visualization of the colonic mucosa through passive propulsion. The role of CCE in the detection of colonic polyps has been extensively evaluated. As mucosal healing has emerged as a pivotal target for treatment of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), there is increasing data to suggest that CCE can also be used in the monitoring of mucosal inflammation in patients with active IBD, particularly in ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD). Despite advantages such as its non-invasive nature, patient's comfort, safety, and access to anatomical regions not easily reached by conventional endoscopy, CE has limitations including the lack of ability to obtain biopsies or therapeutic capabilities and no control over movement. In this review, the role and diagnostic value of CCE on diagnosis and monitoring of UC and CD patients, its safety and limitations are discussed.

Changing treatment paradigms for the management of inflammatory bowel disease

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a chronic and progressive inf lammatory condition of the gastrointestinal tract causing bowel damage, hospitalizations, surgeries, and disability. Although there has been much progress in the management of IBD with established and evolving therapies, most current approaches have failed to change the natural course. Therefore, the treatment approach and follow-up of patients with IBD have undergone a significant change. Usage of immunosuppressants and/or biologics early during the course of the disease, known as top-down or accelerated step-up approach, was shown to be superior to conventional management in patients who had been recently diagnosed with IBD. This approach can be applied to selected groups based on prognostic factors to control disease activity and prevent progressive disease. Therapeutic targets have been shifted from clinical remission mainly based on symptoms to objective parameters such as endoscopic healing due to the discrepancies observed between symptoms, objectively evaluated inf lammatory activity, and intestinal damage. The concept of treat-to-target in IBD has been supported by population-based cohort studies, post hoc analysis of clinical trials, and meta-analysis, but more evidence is needed to support this concept to be applied to the clinical practice. In addition, individualized approach with tight monitoring of non-invasive biomarker such as C-reactive protein and fecal calprotectin and drug concentration has shown to improve clinical and endoscopic outcomes. An appropriate de-escalation strategy is considered based on patient demographics, disease features, current disease status, and patients' preferences.

The impact of panenteric capsule endoscopy on the management of Crohn's disease

Crohn's disease (CD) is a chronic inflammatory disease, in most patients involving the small and large bowel. In recent years, with the use of small bowel video capsule endoscopy (SBCE), it has become clear that in 50% or more of adults with established CD there is not only distal but also proximal small bowel involvement that suggests poor prognosis. A great deal of effort has been put into early diagnosis and stratification of patients into low versus high risk, thus directing treatment from step-up, or accelerated step-up, to top-down therapies. SBCE has been used for assessment of small bowel pathologies for over 15 years, mainly for occult gastrointestinal bleeding and suspected CD. In recent years, a colonic capsule, with cameras on both sides and a wider angle of view, has been developed and is used by some to survey both small and large bowel. Recently the same capsule, with adjustments, has been released in Europe, concentrating (with specialized software) on inflammatory bowel disease. In this review I summarize the new data regarding the use of SBCE as well as the small bowel colon (SBC) versions of capsule endoscopy in established CD and the ways these could alter the management of such patients.