Forecasting lifetime and aggregate long-term care spending: accounting for changing disability patterns

Behavior change techniques to increase physical activity among older adults living in long-term care facilities: A systematic review

Despite the health benefits of physical activity, many older adults living in long-term care facilities lead sedentary lifestyles and do not meet minimum physical activity recommendations. Determining the behavior change techniques (BCTs) used in physical activity interventions can help us understand the underlying mechanisms by which behavioral change is achieved. The purpose of this systematic review was to identify and evaluate BCTs in physical activity interventions for the elderly residents. Six electronic databases were searched and 15 eligible studies were retained. Nine promising BCTs associated with physical activity promotion among elderly residents were identified: credible source, social support (unspecified), goal setting (outcome), goal setting (behavior), demonstration of the behavior, instruction on how to perform a behavior, self-monitoring of behavior, self-monitoring of outcome(s) of behavior, and adding objects to the environment. Future research is encouraged to select and tailor these BCTs to the specific needs and preferences of the target population.

Using microdata as a basis for long term projections of hospital care spending: the added value of more detailed information

BACKGROUND

Component-based projections are commonly used to predict future growth in healthcare spending. The current study aimed to compare pure component-based projections to projections using microlevel data to investigate their added value.

METHODS

The microdata was used to find disease-specific time trends in the number of patients that use hospital care and in annual per patient hospital spending (APHS). Total expenditure projections were then based on APHS and hospital use per disease category combined with demographic projections. As comparator, we used projections with a composite growth term derived from total spending time trends. Furthermore, extensive uncertainty analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Time -trends were present both in hospital care usage and in annual per patient hospital spending (APHS) for most disease groups. What is known as the "residual growth" category in many projections of healthcare spending can be split into these two time- trends, offering more insight into their sources. The advantage of explicit modeling as done in this paper is that trends in usage and per patient spending can be separated. The use of microdata allowed further refinement of component-based models for projections in healthcare spending and a more elaborate analysis of uncertainty surrounding these projections.

CONCLUSIONS

We found time trends in both hospital care usage and APHS in most disease groups. Incorporating these trends into cost projections for various disease groups results in more conservative estimates of future hospital spending compared to merely using demographic projections of per capita costs and adjusting them for observed historical growth. The use of microdata for component-based modelling has benefits but also downsides. A positive side of using microlevel data is that individuals could be followed over multiple years, a downside was the vast amount of computing power and time needed to perform these extensive analyses. Our results could support policy makers to adjust for hospital (staffing) capacity not purely on demographic changes but also based on observed trends in the use of specific types of hospital care, per disease.

Informal Care Costs According to Age and Proximity to Death to Support Cost-Effectiveness Analyses

BACKGROUND

Costs of informal care are ignored in many cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) conducted from a societal perspective; however, these costs are relevant for lifesaving interventions targeted at the older population. In this study, we estimated informal care costs by age and proximity to death across European regions and showed how these estimates can be included in CEAs.

METHODS

We estimated informal care costs by age and proximity to death using generalised linear mixed-effects models. For this, we selected deceased singles from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement, which we grouped by four European regions. We combined the estimates of informal care costs with life tables to illustrate the impact of including informal care costs on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of a hypothetical intervention that prevents a death at different ages.

RESULTS

Informal care use, and hence informal care costs, increase when approaching death and with increasing age. The impact of including informal care costs on the ICER varies between €200 and €17,700 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. The impact increases with age and is stronger for women and in southern European countries.

CONCLUSION

Our estimates of informal care costs facilitate including informal care costs in CEAs of life-extending healthcare interventions. Including these costs may influence decisions as it leads to reranking of life-extending interventions compared with interventions improving quality of life.

Long-term care residents' acceptance of a standing intervention: A qualitative intrinsic case study

Older adults in long-term care are sedentary. Standing is recommended to reduce sedentary time, but there is limited research on long-term care residents' acceptability of standing interventions. The acceptability of the Stand If You Can (SIYC) randomized clinical trial among long-term care residents was explored using a single intrinsic qualitative case study design. The five month intervention consisted of supervised 100 min standing sessions per week. Participants completed post-intervention interviews, which were analyzed using the Thematic Framework Analysis through the lens of an acceptability framework. The 10 participants (7 female), age 73 to 102 years, stood a median of 53% of the intervention offered time (range 20%-94%). The participants reported acceptability in many aspects of the Theoretical Framework of Acceptability. Standing is a simple intervention to decrease sedentary time and seems to be accepted among long-term care residents when burden is not perceived as too high.

Effectiveness of Elastic Band Exercises on the Functional Fitness of Older Adults in Long-Term Care Facilities

BACKGROUND

Population aging has caused a rise in the institutionalization, disability, and mortality rates of older adults worldwide. Older adults are able to engage in muscle training. Elastic band exercises can safely and effectively improve the upper and lower muscle strength and balance of older adults.

PURPOSE

This study was developed to examine the effects of a 3-month elastic band exercise program on the activities of daily living (ADLs), hand muscle strength, balance, and lower limb muscle strength of older adults living in institutional settings.

METHODS

This was a randomized controlled trial. Sixty-one participants were randomly sampled from two long-term care facilities (LTCFs) in northern Taiwan (31 participants in the experimental group and 30 participants in the control group). Both groups underwent pretesting concurrently. The experimental group participated in 3 months of elastic band exercises, whereas the control group participated in the routine exercise program in their LTCFs. All of the participants were tested 1 and 3 months after the intervention.

RESULTS

The average ADL, hand muscle strength, balance, and lower limb muscle strength scores of participants in the experimental group had improved significantly more than those of the control group at posttest (all p s < .05).

CONCLUSIONS/IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

Elastic band exercises positively affect ADLs, hand muscle strength, balance, and lower limb muscle strength in older adults living in LTCFs. Moreover, the high benefit-to-cost ratio of these exercises helps lower the threshold of health promotion. We recommend including elastic band exercises in routine activities and designing different elastic band exercises for older adults at different proficiency levels. Furthermore, an elastic band exercise network should be established to improve the policy and implementation aspects of elastic band activities, raise awareness among community-dwelling and institutionalized older adults, and promote elastic band exercises to LTCFs nationwide.

Estimating Informal Caregiving Time from Patient EQ-5D Data: The Informal CARE Effect (iCARE) Tool

BACKGROUND

Families and friends provide a considerable proportion of care for patients and elderly people. Caregiving can have substantial effects on caregivers' lives, health, and well-being. However, because clinical trials rarely assess these effects, no information on caregiver burden is available when evaluating the cost effectiveness of treatments.

OBJECTIVE

This study develops an algorithm for estimating caregiver time using information that is typically available in clinical trials: the EQ-5D scores of patients and their gender.

METHODS

Four datasets with a total of 8012 observations of dyads of caregivers and a gamma model with a log-link estimated with the Bayesian approach were used to estimate the statistical association between patient scores on the EQ-5D-3L dimensions and the numbers of hours of care provided by caregivers during the previous week. The model predicts hours of care as mean point estimates with 95% credible intervals or entire distributions.

RESULTS

Model predictions of hours of care based on the five EQ-5D dimensions ranged from 13.06 (12.7-14.5) h/week for female patients reporting no health problems but receiving informal care to 52.82 (39.38-66.26) for male patients with the highest level of problems on all EQ-5D dimensions.

CONCLUSIONS

The iCARE algorithm developed in this study allows researchers who only have patient-level EQ-5D data to estimate the mean hours of informal care received per week, including a 95% Bayesian credible interval. Caregiver time can be multiplied with a monetary value for caregiving, enabling the inclusion of informal care costs in economic evaluations. We recommend using the tool for samples that fall within the confidence intervals of the characteristics of our samples: men (age range 47.0-104.2 years), women (age range 55-103 years).

The impact of institution use on the wellbeing of Alzheimer's disease patients and their caregivers

In France, temporary institutionalization solutions for dependent elders have been encouraged since the early 2000s. They are targeting patients who are maintained at home, but may need temporary solutions to adjust the constraints of caregivers, e.g. to facilitate transitions between several informal care providers or to allow informal caregivers to leave for holidays. However, the influence of these solutions on dependent elders and their caregivers has not been explored yet. We use French longitudinal data (REAL.FR, 686 elders and their primary caregivers followed between 2000 and 2006) to explore the impact of institution placement on the wellbeing of both Alzheimer's disease patients and their primary informal caregivers. The data distinguishes permanent placements in institution from temporary stays. Using fixed-effect models, we quantify the change in patients' quality of life and caregivers' burden of care following the placement of patients. We find that permanent and temporary stays are associated with a decrease in informal caregivers' burden. However, only permanent stays lead to an improvement of patients' quality of life. Hence, taken together, the results suggest that while long-run placements may maximize the wellbeing of all the members of a household (patient and caregiver), this is not necessarily the case of short-term placements.

Determinants of first-time utilization of long-term care services in the Netherlands: an observational record linkage study

Background

Since in an ageing society more long-term care (LTC) facilities are needed, it is important to understand the main determinants of first-time utilization of (LTC) services.

Methods

The Andersen service model, which distinguishes predisposing, enabling and need factors, was used to develop a model for first-time utilization of LTC services among the general population of the Netherlands. We used data on 214,821 persons registered in a database of general practitioners (NIVEL Primary Care Database). For each person the medical history was known, as well as characteristics such as ethnicity, income, home-ownership, and marital status. Utilization data from the national register on long-term care was linked at a personal level. Generalized Linear Models were used to determine the relative importance of factors of incident LTC-service utilization.

Results

Top 5 determinants of LTC are need, measured as the presence of chronic diseases, age, household size, household income and homeownership. When controlling for all other determinants, the presence of an additional chronic disease increases the probability of utilizing any LTC service by 45% among the 20+ population (OR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.41–1.49), and 31% among the 65+ population (OR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.27–1.36). With respect to the 20+ population, living in social rent (OR = 2.45, 95% CI = 2.25–2.67, ref. = home-owner) had a large impact on utilizing any LTC service. In a lesser degree this was the case for living alone (OR = 1.63, 95% CI = 1.52–1.75, ref. = not living alone). A higher household income was linked with a lower utilization of any LTC service.

Conclusions

All three factors of the Anderson model, predisposing, enabling, and need determinants influence the likelihood of future LTC service utilization. This implies that none of these factors can be left out of the analysis of what determines this use. New in our analysis is the focus on incident utilization. This provides a better estimate of the effects of predictors than a prevalence based analysis, as there is less confounding by changes in determinants occurring after LTC initiation. Especially the need of care is a strong factor. A policy implication of this relative importance of health status is therefore that LTC reforms should take health aspects into account.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-017-2570-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Recommendations on Physical Activity and Exercise for Older Adults Living in Long-Term Care Facilities: A Taskforce Report

A taskforce, under the auspices of The International Association of Gerontology and Geriatrics-Global Aging Research Network (IAGG-GARN) and the IAGG European Region Clinical Section, composed of experts from the fields of exercise science and geriatrics, met in Toulouse, in December 2015, with the aim of establishing recommendations of physical activity and exercise for older adults living in long-term care facilities (LTCFs). Due to the high heterogeneity in terms of functional ability and cognitive function that characterizes older adults living in LTCFs, taskforce members established 2 sets of recommendations: recommendations for reducing sedentary behaviors for all LTCF residents and recommendations for defining specific, evidence-based guidelines for exercise training for subgroups of LTCF residents. To promote a successful implementation of recommendations, taskforce experts highlighted the importance of promoting residents' motivation and pleasure, the key factors that can be increased when taking into account residents' desires, preferences, beliefs, and attitudes toward physical activity and exercise. The importance of organizational factors related to LTCFs and health care systems were recognized by the experts. In conclusion, this taskforce report proposes standards for the elaboration of strategies to increase physical activity as well as to prescribe exercise programs for older adults living in LTCFs. This report should be used as a guide for professionals working in LTCF settings.

The effect of trends in health and longevity on health services use by older adults

Background

The effect of population aging on future health services use depends on the relationship between longevity gains and health. Whether further gains in life expectancy will be paired by improvements in health is uncertain. We therefore analyze the effect of population ageing on health services use under different health scenarios. We focus on the possibly diverging trends between different dimensions of health and their effect on health services use.

Methods

Using longitudinal data on health and health services use, a latent Markov model has been estimated that includes different dimensions of health. We use this model to perform a simulation study and analyze the health dynamics that drive the effect of population aging. We simulate three health scenarios on the relationship between longevity and health (expansion of morbidity, compression of morbidity, and the dynamic equilibrium scenario). We use the scenarios to predict costs of health services use in the Netherlands between 2010 and 2050.

Results

Hospital use is predicted to decline after 2040, whereas long-term care will continue to rise up to 2050. Considerable differences in expenditure growth rates between scenarios with the same life expectancy but different trends in health are found. Compression of morbidity generally leads to the lowest growth. The effect of additional life expectancy gains within the same health scenario is relatively small for hospital care, but considerable for long-term care.

Conclusions

By comparing different health scenarios resulting in the same life expectancy, we show that health improvements do contain costs when they decrease morbidity but not mortality. This suggests that investing in healthy aging can contribute to containing health expenditure growth.

Explaining declining rates of institutional LTC use in the Netherlands: a decomposition approach

The use of long-term care (LTC) is changing rapidly. In the Netherlands, rates of institutional LTC use are falling, whereas homecare use is growing. Are these changes attributable to declining disability rates, or has LTC use given disability changed? And have institutionalization rates fallen regardless of disability level, or has LTC use become better tailored to needs? We answer these questions by explaining trends in LTC use for the Dutch 65+ population in the period 2000-2008 using a nonlinear variant of the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition. We find that changes in LTC use are not due to shifts in the disability distribution but can almost entirely be traced back to changes in the way the system treats disability. Elderly with mild disability are more likely to be treated at home than before, whereas severely disabled individuals continue to receive institutional LTC. As a result, LTC use has become better tailored to the needs for such care. This finding suggests that policies that promote LTC in the community rather than in institutions can effectively mitigate the consequences of population aging on LTC spending.

[Embrace, a model for integrated elderly care]

Ongoing growth in health care expenditures and changing patterns in the demand for health care challenge societies worldwide. The Chronic Care Model (CCM), combined with classification for care needs based on Kaiser Permanente (KP) Triangle, may offer a suitable framework for change. The aim of the present study is to investigate the effectiveness of Embrace, a population-based model for integrated elderly care, regarding patient outcomes, service use, costs, and quality of care.

METHODS

The CCM and the KP Triangle were translated to the Dutch setting and adapted to the full elderly population living in the community. A randomized controlled trial with balanced allocation was designed to test the effectiveness of Embrace. Eligible elderly persons are 75 years and older and enrolled with one of the participating general practitioner practices. Based on scores on the INTERMED-Elderly Self-Assessment and Groningen Frailty Indicator, participants will be stratified into one of three strata: (A) robust; (B) frail; and (C) complex care needs. Next, participants will be randomized per stratum to Embrace or care as usual. Embrace encompasses an Elderly Care Team per general practitioner practice, an Electronic Elderly Record System, decision support instruments, and a self-management support and prevention program - combined with care and support intensity levels increasing from stratum A to stratum C. Primary outcome variables are patient outcomes, service use, costs, and quality of care. Data will be collected at baseline, twelve months after starting date, and during the intervention period.

DISCUSSION

This study could provide evidence for the effectiveness of Embrace.

Embrace, a model for integrated elderly care: study protocol of a randomized controlled trial on the effectiveness regarding patient outcomes, service use, costs, and quality of care

Background

Ongoing growth in health care expenditures and changing patterns in the demand for health care challenge societies worldwide. The Chronic Care Model (CCM), combined with classification for care needs based on Kaiser Permanente (KP) Triangle, may offer a suitable framework for change. The aim of the present study is to investigate the effectiveness of Embrace, a population-based model for integrated elderly care, regarding patient outcomes, service use, costs, and quality of care.

Methods/Design

The CCM and the KP Triangle were translated to the Dutch setting and adapted to the full elderly population living in the community. A randomized controlled trial with balanced allocation was designed to test the effectiveness of Embrace. Eligible elderly persons are 75 years and older and enrolled with one of the participating general practitioner practices. Based on scores on the INTERMED-Elderly Self-Assessment and Groningen Frailty Indicator, participants will be stratified into one of three strata: (A) robust; (B) frail; and (C) complex care needs. Next, participants will be randomized per stratum to Embrace or care as usual. Embrace encompasses an Elderly Care Team per general practitioner practice, an Electronic Elderly Record System, decision support instruments, and a self-management support and prevention program – combined with care and support intensity levels increasing from stratum A to stratum C. Primary outcome variables are patient outcomes, service use, costs, and quality of care. Data will be collected at baseline, twelve months after starting date, and during the intervention period.

Discussion

This study could provide evidence for the effectiveness of Embrace.

Trial registration

The Netherlands National Trial Register NTR3039