Will changes in gay men's sexual behavior reduce syphilis rates?

The population-level impact of introducing rapid diagnostic tests on syphilis transmission in Canadian arctic communities - a mathematical modeling study

Background

Canadian Arctic communities have experienced sustained syphilis transmission, with diagnoses rates 18-times higher than the national average. Remoteness from laboratory facilities leads to delays between syphilis screening and treatment, contributing to onward transmission. Rapid diagnostic tests can eliminate treatment delays via testing at the point-of-care. This study aims to describe syphilis diagnostic gaps and to estimate the impact of introducing rapid diagnostic tests at the point-of-care on syphilis transmission.

Methods

To assess the population-level impact of deploying rapid diagnostic tests, an individual-based model was developed using detailed surveillance data, population surveys, and a prospective diagnostic accuracy field study. The model was calibrated to syphilis diagnoses (2017-2022) from a community of approximately 1,050 sexually active individuals. The impacts of implementing rapid diagnostic tests using whole blood (sensitivity: 92% for infectious and 81% for non-infectious syphilis; specificity: 99%) from 2023 onward was calculated using the annual median fraction of cumulative new syphilis infections averted over 2023-2032.

Findings

The median modeled syphilis incidence among sexually active individuals was 44 per 1,000 in 2023. Males aged 16-30 years exhibited a 51% lower testing rate than that of their female counterparts. Maintaining all interventions constant at their 2022 levels, implementing rapid diagnostic tests could avert a cumulative 33% (90% credible intervals: 18-43%) and 37% (21-46%) of new syphilis infections over 5 and 10 years, respectively. Increasing testing rates and contact tracing may enhance the effect of rapid diagnostic tests.

Interpretation

Implementing rapid diagnostic tests for syphilis in Arctic communities could reduce infections and enhance control of epidemics. Such effective diagnostic tools could enable rapid outbreak responses by providing same-day testing and treatment at the point-of-care.

Funding

Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

A cultural evolutionary model of the interaction between parental beliefs and behaviors, with applications to vaccine hesitancy

Health perceptions and health-related behaviors can change at the population level as cultures evolve. In the last decade, despite the proven efficacy of vaccines, the developed world has seen a resurgence of vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) such as measles, pertussis, and polio. Vaccine hesitancy, an individual attitude influenced by historical, political, and socio-cultural forces, is believed to be a primary factor responsible for decreasing vaccine coverage, thereby increasing the risk and occurrence of VPD outbreaks. Behavior change models have been increasingly employed to understand disease dynamics and intervention effectiveness. However, since health behaviors are culturally influenced, it is valuable to examine them within a cultural evolution context. Here, using a mathematical modeling framework, we explore the effects of cultural evolution on vaccine hesitancy and vaccination behavior. With this model, we shed light on facets of cultural evolution (vertical transmission, community influences, homophily, etc.) that promote the spread of vaccine hesitancy, ultimately affecting levels of vaccination coverage and VPD outbreak risk in a population. In addition, we present our model as a generalizable framework for exploring cultural evolution when humans' beliefs influence, but do not strictly dictate, their behaviors. This model offers a means of exploring how parents' potentially conflicting beliefs and cultural traits could affect their children's health and fitness. We show that vaccine confidence and vaccine-conferred benefits can both be driving forces of vaccine coverage. We also demonstrate that an assortative preference among vaccine-hesitant individuals can lead to increased vaccine hesitancy and lower vaccine coverage.

Incidence and Risk Factors for Early Syphilis Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in Australia, 2013-2019: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

We aimed to examine the incidence of syphilis in men who have sex with men (MSM) and identify subgroups of MSM at a higher risk of syphilis infection.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of MSM attending a sexual health clinic in Australia, during 2013-2019, who had at least 2 syphilis serological tests during the study period. The incidence of syphilis was expressed as per 100 person-years. A cox regression analysis was conducted to identify risk factors for syphilis.

Results

A total of 24 391 individual MSM (75 086 consultations) were included. A total of 1404 new syphilis cases were diagnosed with an incidence of 3.7/100 person-years (95% confidence interval, 3.5-3.9). Syphilis incidence was higher in MSM with human immunodeficiency virus ([HIV] 9.3/100 person-years) than in MSM taking HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) (6.9/100 person-years) or HIV-negative MSM not taking PrEP (2.2/100 person-years). Risk factors associated with high incidence of syphilis included the following: MSM with HIV (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.7), MSM taking HIV PrEP (aHR 2.1), past history of syphilis infection (aHR 2.4), injecting drug use (aHR 2.7), condomless anal sex (aHR 1.7), >4 sexual partners in the last 12 months (aHR 1.2), and concurrent sexually transmitted infection (chlamydia and gonorrhoea) (aHR 1.6).

Conclusions

The incidence of syphilis remains high among MSM, particularly in subgroups with associated risk factors for syphilis infections. These data highlight the need for biomedical and behavioral interventions to be targeted to subgroups of MSM at the highest risk of syphilis infection.

Countering the rise of syphilis: A role for doxycycline post-exposure prophylaxis?

Doxycycline post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) holds the potential to mitigate increasing rates of syphilis among sexual minority men (SMM) in the US yet has received limited attention. Since evaluation of this intervention in actual populations is not currently feasible, we used agent-based models (ABM) to assess the population-level impact of this strategy. We adapted ABM of HIV and HPV transmission, representing a population of 10,230 SMM in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, US. Parameter inputs were derived from the literature, and ABM outputs during the pre-intervention period were calibrated to local surveillance data. Intervention scenarios varied doxycycline uptake by 20, 40, 60, 80 and 100%, while assuming continued condom use and syphilis screening and treatment. Under each intervention scenario, we incorporated treatment adherence at the following levels: 0, 20, 40, 60, 80 and 100%. Long-term population impact of prophylactic doxycycline was measured using the cumulative incidence over the 10-year period and the percentage of infections prevented attributable to doxycycline at year 10. An uptake scenario of 20% with an adherence level of 80% would reduce the cumulative incidence of infections by 10% over the next decade, translating to 57 fewer cases per 1000 SMM. At year 10, under the same uptake and adherence level, 22% of infections would be prevented due to doxycycline PEP in the instances where condoms were not used or failed. Findings suggest that doxycycline PEP will have a modest impact on syphilis incidence when assuming a reasonable level of uptake and adherence. Doxycycline PEP may be most appropriate as a secondary prevention measure to condoms and enhanced syphilis screening for reducing infections among SMM.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: A review

Infectious diseases and human behavior are intertwined. On one side, our movements and interactions are the engines of transmission. On the other, the unfolding of viruses might induce changes to our daily activities. While intuitive, our understanding of such feedback loop is still limited. Before COVID-19 the literature on the subject was mainly theoretical and largely missed validation. The main issue was the lack of empirical data capturing behavioral change induced by diseases. Things have dramatically changed in 2020. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been the key weapon against the SARS-CoV-2 virus and affected virtually any societal process. Travel bans, events cancellation, social distancing, curfews, and lockdowns have become unfortunately very familiar. The scale of the emergency, the ease of survey as well as crowdsourcing deployment guaranteed by the latest technology, several Data for Good programs developed by tech giants, major mobile phone providers, and other companies have allowed unprecedented access to data describing behavioral changes induced by the pandemic. Here, I review some of the vast literature written on the subject of NPIs during the COVID-19 pandemic. In doing so, I analyze 348 articles written by more than 2518 authors in the first 12 months of the emergency. While the large majority of the sample was obtained by querying PubMed, it includes also a hand-curated list. Considering the focus, and methodology I have classified the sample into seven main categories: epidemic models, surveys, comments/perspectives, papers aiming to quantify the effects of NPIs, reviews, articles using data proxies to measure NPIs, and publicly available datasets describing NPIs. I summarize the methodology, data used, findings of the articles in each category and provide an outlook highlighting future challenges as well as opportunities.

Resurgence of Syphilis in the United States: An Assessment of Contributing Factors

In the last decade, there has been a marked resurgence of syphilis in the United States despite the availability of effective treatments and previously reliable prevention strategies. The majority of cases are among the population of men who have sex with men (MSM); however, there has also been a recent increase among premenopausal women, coinciding with a concerning rise of congenital cases. The resurgence of syphilis can be largely attributed to changing social and behavioral factors, especially among young MSM. The biological association of syphilis with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission and acquisition is particularly alarming because of the increased individual and healthcare burden. In addition, some individual actions and public health efforts that are meant to reduce the risk of acquiring HIV may actually lead to risk compensation that facilitates the transmission of syphilis. Untreated syphilis is associated with detrimental health outcomes; therefore, both effective prevention strategies and treatment of this systemic disease have important short-term and long-term public health implications. This article offers a review of social and behavioral factors contributing to the current resurgence and recommendations for reducing syphilis incidence through medical and public health prevention strategies.

Population size and self-reported characteristics and sexual preferences of men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) in Germany based on social network data

Background

In the absence of detailed information about the population size and behaviour data of men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM), the estimation of prevalence rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and the design of public health interventions become difficult. The aim of the present study is to estimate the lower boundary of age-specific population sizes and retrieve self-reported information from this population.

Methods

We used publicly accessible data from a large online dating and social network website for MSM in Germany to retrieve data on the age and regional distribution of profiles. The profiles were also stratified by their information on the preferred position during anal intercourse, safer sex, and sexual identity.

Results

A total of 464,873 user profiles correspond to an average 15.2 profiles per 1,000 male inhabitants in Germany, varying between 7.6 and 45.6 across federal states. Although the information on the absolute numbers for different age groups is limited by the search engine, age-specific relative frequencies were found to increase from 12.9 in the age group of 18 to 20 year olds to 24.6 profiles per 1,000 male inhabitants in the 28 to 30 year olds. The data shows age-specific trends for safer sex with an increasing easiness of reporting “never” engaging in safer sex or stating that safer sex “needs discussion” with increasing age. Around one third of profile owners stated to be versatile with respect to the preferred position in anal intercourse. All other options (“only bottom”, “more bottom”, “only top”, “more top”) were preferred equally likely by roughly 10% of profile owners, respectively.

Conclusions

Online social network or dating sites can provide some information about specific populations in the absence of other data sources. The presented results are the first to report age-specific rates of MSM per 1,000 male inhabitants in Germany and may be useful to estimate age-specific prevalence or incidence rates as well as to inform health promotion activities and modelling studies for MSM in Germany.

How various design decisions on matching individuals in relationships affect the outcomes of microsimulations of sexually transmitted infection epidemics

Microsimulations are increasingly used to estimate the prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs). These models consist of agents which represent a sexually active population. Matching agents into sexual relationships is computationally intensive and presents modellers with difficult design decisions: how to select which partnerships between agents break up, which agents enter a partnership market, and how to pair agents in the partnership market. The aim of this study was to analyse the effect of these design decisions on STI prevalence. We compared two strategies for selecting which agents enter a daily partnership market and which agent partnerships break up: random selection in which agents are treated homogenously versus selection based on data from a large German longitudinal data set that accounts for sex, sexual orientation and age heterogeneity. We also coupled each of these strategies with one of several recently described algorithms for pairing agents and compared their speed and outcomes. Additional design choices were also considered, such as the number of agents used in the model, increasing the heterogeneity of agents' sexual behaviour, and the proportion of relationships which are casual sex encounters. Approaches which account for agent heterogeneity estimated lower prevalence than less sophisticated approaches which treat agents homogeneously. Also, in simulations with non-random pairing of agents, as the risk of infection increased, incidence declined as the number of agents increased. Our algorithms facilitate the execution of thousands of simulations with large numbers of agents quickly. Fast pair-matching algorithms provide a practical way for microsimulation modellers to account for varying sexual behaviour within the population they are studying. For STIs with high infection rates modellers may need to experiment with different population sizes.

Behavioural, not biological, factors drive the HCV epidemic among HIV-positive MSM: HCV and HIV modelling analysis including HCV treatment-as-prevention impact

Background

Uncertainty surrounds why hepatitis C virus (HCV) is concentrated among HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM). We used mathematical modelling to explore reasons for these infection patterns, and implications for HCV treatment-as-prevention.

Methods

Using a joint MSM HIV/HCV transmission model parameterized with UK behavioural data, we considered how biological (heightened HCV infectivity and reduced spontaneous clearance among HIV-positive MSM) and/or behavioural factors (preferential sexual mixing by HIV status and risk heterogeneity) could concentrate HCV infection in HIV-positive MSM as commonly observed (5-20 times the HCV prevalence in HIV-negative MSM; defined as the HCV ratio). We explored how HCV treatment-as-prevention impact varies under differing HCV ratios.

Results

Biological factors produced low HCV ratios (< 3), not explaining the skewed epidemic. However, combining preferential mixing by HIV status with sexual risk behaviour heterogeneity produced high HCV ratios (> 10) that were highly sensitive to both factors. Irrespective of the HCV ratio or behavioural/biological factors, HCV treatment of HIV-diagnosed MSM markedly reduced the HCV prevalence among HIV-positive MSM, but less impact was achieved among all MSM for lower HCV ratios.

Conclusions

Sexual behaviour patterns likely drive observed HCV infection patterns among HIV-positive MSM. Changes in these patterns could disseminate HCV amongst HIV-negative MSM, limiting the impact of targeting HCV treatment to HIV-diagnosed MSM.

Behavioural change models for infectious disease transmission: a systematic review (2010-2015)

We review behavioural change models (BCMs) for infectious disease transmission in humans. Following the Cochrane collaboration guidelines and the PRISMA statement, our systematic search and selection yielded 178 papers covering the period 2010-2015. We observe an increasing trend in published BCMs, frequently coupled to (re)emergence events, and propose a categorization by distinguishing how information translates into preventive actions. Behaviour is usually captured by introducing information as a dynamic parameter (76/178) or by introducing an economic objective function, either with (26/178) or without (37/178) imitation. Approaches using information thresholds (29/178) and exogenous behaviour formation (16/178) are also popular. We further classify according to disease, prevention measure, transmission model (with 81/178 population, 6/178 metapopulation and 91/178 individual-level models) and the way prevention impacts transmission. We highlight the minority (15%) of studies that use any real-life data for parametrization or validation and note that BCMs increasingly use social media data and generally incorporate multiple sources of information (16/178), multiple types of information (17/178) or both (9/178). We conclude that individual-level models are increasingly used and useful to model behaviour changes. Despite recent advancements, we remain concerned that most models are purely theoretical and lack representative data and a validation process.

Risk Factors Associated with Incident Syphilis in a Cohort of High-Risk Men in Peru

BACKGROUND

Syphilis is concentrated among high-risk groups, but the epidemiology of syphilis reinfection is poorly understood. We characterized factors associated with syphilis incidence, including reinfection, in a high-risk cohort in Peru.

METHODS

Participants in the NIMH CPOL trial were assessed at baseline and 2 annual visits with HIV/STI testing and behavioral surveys. Participants diagnosed with syphilis also attended 4- and 9-month visits. All participants underwent syphilis testing with RPR screening and TPPA confirmation. Antibiotic treatment was provided according to CDC guidelines. Reinfection was defined as a 4-fold titer increase or recurrence of seroreactivity after successful treatment with subsequent negative RPR titers. The longitudinal analysis used a Possion generalized estimating equations model with backward selection of variables in the final model (criteria P <0.02).

RESULTS

Of 2,709 participants, 191 (7.05%) were RPR-reactive (median 1:8, range 1:1-1:1024) with TPPA confirmation. There were 119 total cases of incident syphilis, which included both reinfection and first-time incident cases. In the bivariate analysis, the oldest 2 quartiles of age (incidence ratio (IR) 3.84; P <0.001 and IR 8.15; P <0.001) and being MSM/TW (IR 6.48; P <0.001) were associated with higher risk of incident syphilis infection. Of the sexual risk behaviors, older age of sexual debut (IR 12.53; P <0.001), not being in a stable partnership (IR 1.56, P = 0.035), higher number of sex partners (IR 3.01; P <0.001), unprotected sex in the past 3 months (IR 0.56; P = 0.003), HIV infection at baseline (IR 3.98; P <0.001) and incident HIV infection during the study period (IR 6.26; P = 0.003) were all associated with incident syphilis. In the multivariable analysis, older age group (adjusted incidence ratio (aIR) 6.18; P <0.001), men reporting having sex with a man (aIR 4.63; P <0.001), and incident HIV infection (aIR 4.48; P = 0.008) were significantly associated.

CONCLUSIONS

We report a high rate of syphilis reinfection among high-risk men who have evidence of previous syphilis infection. Our findings highlight the close relationship between HIV incidence with both incident syphilis and syphilis reinfection. Further studies on syphilis reinfection are needed to understand patterns of syphilis reinfection and new strategies beyond periodic testing of high-risk individuals based on HIV status are needed.

Syphilis transmission: a review of the current evidence

Syphilis remains widespread worldwide, with increasing rates among men who have sex with men. This paper reviews available evidence regarding syphilis transmission, including data on: sexual transmission (transmission probability per sexual partnership), vertical transmission, transmission via blood products and organ donation, and other rare modes of transmission. In addition, host susceptibility to syphilis infection is discussed. Syphilis screening and treatment, condoms and risk-reduction counselling and how they modify syphilis transmission dynamics are considered.

Opt-out and opt-in testing increases syphilis screening of HIV-positive men who have sex with men in Australia

Background

Since 2005, Australian clinicians were advised to undertake quarterly syphilis testing for all sexually active HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM). We describe differences in syphilis testing frequency among HIV-positive MSM by clinic testing policies since this recommendation.

Methods

Three general practices, two sexual health clinics and two hospital HIV outpatient clinics provided data on HIV viral load and syphilis testing from 2006–2010. Men having ≥1 viral load test per year were included; >95% were MSM. We used Chi-2 tests to assess changes in syphilis testing frequency over time, and differences by clinic testing policy (opt-out, opt-in and risk-based).

Results

The proportion of men having HIV viral loads with same-day syphilis tests increased from 37% in 2006 to 63% in 2007 (p<0.01) and 68–69% thereafter. In 2010, same-day syphilis testing was highest in four clinics with opt-out strategies (87%, range:84–91%) compared with one clinic with opt-in (74%, p = 0.121) and two clinics with risk-based strategies (22%, range:20–24%, p<0.01). The proportion of men having ≥3 syphilis tests per year increased from 15% in 2006 to 36% in 2007 (p<0.01) and 36–38% thereafter. In 2010, the proportion of men having ≥3 syphilis tests in a year was highest in clinics with opt-out strategies (48%, range:35–59%), compared with opt-in (39%, p = 0.121) and risk-based strategies (8.4%, range:5.4–12%, p<0.01).

Conclusion

Over five years the proportion of HIV-positive men undergoing syphilis testing at recommended frequencies more than doubled, and was 5–6 times higher in clinics with opt-out and opt-in strategies compared with risk-based policies.

Would gay men change their sexual behavior to reduce syphilis rates?

BACKGROUND

The community at which public health strategies for reducing syphilis epidemics are potentially targeted may have different considerations with regards to their sexual and health priorities. We aimed to elicit information on the acceptability of behavior change interventions among gay men for reducing syphilis transmission.

METHODS

We conducted an online survey (n = 2306 participants) and focus groups to determine whether further sexual behavior change to reduce syphilis is likely to be acceptable to gay men in Australia.

RESULTS

One quarter of survey respondents (26%) indicated that they would be highly likely to reduce partner acquisition rates in order to reduce their chances of syphilis infection. However, among the 475 (21%) men who reported greater than 10 partners in the previous 6 months, only 11% indicated being "highly likely" to reduce partner numbers to avoid syphilis. Among 606 (26%) survey respondents who reported not always using condoms in the previous 6 months, 34% indicated being highly likely to always use condoms with casual partners to avoid syphilis. In the focus groups, men indicated little commitment to sexual behavior change but some willingness to consider short-term changes to reduce community syphilis levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Interventions promoting partner reduction or increased condom use are unlikely to be adopted on a long-term basis by men at greatest risk. Behavioral interventions alone are unlikely to materially contribute to syphilis prevention among gay men.