Derivation and Internal Validation of a Mortality Prediction Tool for Initial Survivors of Pediatric In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest

Development and validation of a prediction model of hospital mortality for patients with cardiac arrest survived 24 hours after cardiopulmonary resuscitation

Objective

Research on predictive models for hospital mortality in patients who have survived 24 h following cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is limited. We aim to explore the factors associated with hospital mortality in these patients and develop a predictive model to aid clinical decision-making and enhance the survival rates of patients post-resuscitation.

Methods

We sourced the data from a retrospective study within the Dryad dataset, dividing patients who suffered cardiac arrest following CPR into a training set and a validation set at a 7:3 ratio. We identified variables linked to hospital mortality in the training set using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression, as well as univariate and multivariate logistic analyses. Utilizing these variables, we developed a prognostic nomogram for predicting mortality post-CPR. Calibration curves, the area under receiver operating curves (ROC), decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curve were used to assess the discriminability, accuracy, and clinical utility of the nomogram.

Results

The study population comprised 374 patients, with 262 allocated to the training group and 112 to the validation group. Of these, 213 patients were dead in the hospital. Multivariate logistic analysis revealed age (OR 1.05, 95% CI: 1.03-1.08), witnessed arrest (OR 0.28, 95% CI: 0.11-0.73), time to return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) (OR 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02-1.08), non-shockable rhythm (OR 3.41, 95% CI: 1.61-7.18), alkaline phosphatase (OR 1.01, 95% CI: 1-1.01), and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) (OR 1.27, 95% CI: 1.15-1.4) were independent risk factors for hospital mortality for patients who survived 24 h after CPR. ROC of the nomogram showed the AUC in the training and validation group was 0.827 and 0.817, respectively. Calibration curves, DCA, and clinical impact curve demonstrated the nomogram with good accuracy and clinical utility.

Conclusion

Our prediction model had accurate predictive value for hospital mortality in patients who survived 24 h after CPR, which will be beneficial for assisting in identifying high-risk patients and intervention. Further confirmation of the model's accuracy required external validation data.

Incidence and outcomes of in-hospital resuscitation for cardiac arrest among paediatric patients in Jordan: a retrospective observational study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the incidence and survival rates of paediatric patients receiving resuscitation for in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) in a teaching hospital in Northern Jordan, comparing initial pulseless rhythms and bradycardia rhythm with poor perfusion.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study SETTING: An university-affiliated tertiary hospital in Northern Jordan, covering January 2015 to December 2022.

PATIENTS

All hospitalised paediatric patients aged 1 month-18 years who received cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) for cardiac arrest were included in the study. Resuscitation attempts were categorised into initial pulseless rhythm events and bradycardia with poor perfusion events.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incidence rate of paediatric CPR and the survival to hospital discharge rate.

RESULTS

A total of 504 paediatric patients received CPR during the study period, with an incidence rate of 6.26 per 1000 paediatric admissions. The annual incidence rate was significantly reduced by an average of 5.5% for the total sample but increased by 25.0% for bradycardia events (n=110, 21.8%). The percentage of patients who sustained return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) was 25.0%. Survival to hospital discharge was low at 4.8% while showing an increasing trend by an average of 24.0% per year. Bradycardia events had a significantly higher ROSC rate (34.6% vs 22.3%); but an insignificant higher survival rate (6.4 vs 4.3). Patients with neurological or cardiovascular medical conditions, those in non-intensive care unit departments, and those with respiratory causes had higher odds of survival to discharge.

CONCLUSION

While the incidence rate of paediatric IHCA in Jordan is comparable to developed countries, the survival rate is much poorer. The study highlights the importance of strengthening healthcare infrastructure, establishing national legal and ethical frameworks around resuscitation policies and establishing robust data registries to monitor and optimise care practices.

Update in Pediatric Neurocritical Care: What a Neurologist Caring for Critically Ill Children Needs to Know

Currently nearly one-quarter of admissions to pediatric intensive care units (PICUs) worldwide are for neurocritical care diagnoses that are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Pediatric neurocritical care is a rapidly evolving field with unique challenges due to not only age-related responses to primary neurologic insults and their treatments but also the rarity of pediatric neurocritical care conditions at any given institution. The structure of pediatric neurocritical care services therefore is most commonly a collaborative model where critical care medicine physicians coordinate care and are supported by a multidisciplinary team of pediatric subspecialists, including neurologists. While pediatric neurocritical care lies at the intersection between critical care and the neurosciences, this narrative review focuses on the most common clinical scenarios encountered by pediatric neurologists as consultants in the PICU and synthesizes the recent evidence, best practices, and ongoing research in these cases. We provide an in-depth review of (1) the evaluation and management of abnormal movements (seizures/status epilepticus and status dystonicus); (2) acute weakness and paralysis (focusing on pediatric stroke and select pediatric neuroimmune conditions); (3) neuromonitoring modalities using a pathophysiology-driven approach; (4) neuroprotective strategies for which there is evidence (e.g., pediatric severe traumatic brain injury, post-cardiac arrest care, and ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke); and (5) best practices for neuroprognostication in pediatric traumatic brain injury, cardiac arrest, and disorders of consciousness, with highlights of the 2023 updates on Brain Death/Death by Neurological Criteria. Our review of the current state of pediatric neurocritical care from the viewpoint of what a pediatric neurologist in the PICU needs to know is intended to improve knowledge for providers at the bedside with the goal of better patient care and outcomes.

Amplitude-Integrated EEG Monitoring in Pediatric Intensive Care: Prognostic Value in Meningitis before One Year of Age

Pediatric morbidity from meningitis remains considerable. Preventing complications is a major challenge to improve neurological outcome. Seizures may reveal the meningitis itself or some complications of this disease. Amplitude-integrated electroencephalography (aEEG) is gaining interest for the management of patients with acute neurological distress, beyond the neonatal age. This study aimed at evaluating the predictive value of aEEG monitoring during the acute phase in meningitis among a population of infants hospitalized in the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU), and at assessing the practicability of the technique. AEEG records of 25 infants younger than one year of age hospitalized for meningitis were retrospectively analyzed and correlated to clinical data and outcome. Recording was initiated, on average, within the first six hours for n = 18 (72%) patients, and overall quality was considered as good. Occurrence of seizure, of status epilepticus, and the background pattern were significantly associated with unfavorable neurological outcomes. AEEG may help in the management and prognostic assessment of pediatric meningitis. It is an easily achievable, reliable technique, and allows detection of subclinical seizures with minimal training. However, it is important to consider the limitations of aEEG, and combinate it with conventional EEG for the best accuracy.

On-Hours Compared to Off-Hours Pediatric Extracorporeal Life Support Initiation in the United States Between 2009 and 2018-An Analysis of the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization Registry

We aimed to investigate whether there are differences in outcome for pediatric patients when extracorporeal life support (ECLS) is initiated on-hours compared with off-hours.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Ten-year period (2009-2018) in United States centers, from the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization registry.

PATIENTS

Pediatric (>30 d and <18 yr old) patients undergoing venovenous and venoarterial ECLS.

INTERVENTIONS

The primary predictor was on versus off-hours cannulation. On-hours were defined as 0700-1859 from Monday to Friday. Off-hours were defined as 1900-0659 from Monday to Thursday or 1900 Friday to 0659 Monday or any time during a United States national holiday. The primary outcome was inhospital mortality. The secondary outcomes were complications related to ECLS and length of hospital stay.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

In a cohort of 9,400 patients, 4,331 (46.1%) were cannulated on-hours and 5,069 (53.9%) off-hours. In the off-hours group, 2,220/5,069 patients died (44.0%) versus 1,894/4,331 (44.1%) in the on-hours group (p = 0.93). Hemorrhagic complications were lower in the off-hours group versus the on-hours group (hemorrhagic 18.4% vs 21.0%; p = 0.002). After adjusting for patient complexity and other confounders, there were no differences between the groups in mortality (odds ratio [OR], 0.95; 95% CI, 0.85-1.07; p = 0.41) or any complications (OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.89-1.17; p = 0.75).

CONCLUSIONS

Survival and complication rates are similar for pediatric patients when ECLS is initiated on-hours compared with off-hours. This finding suggests that, in aggregate, the current pediatric ECLS infrastructure in the United States provides adequate capabilities for the initiation of ECLS across all hours of the day.

Predicting the Mortality and Readmission of In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Patients With Electronic Health Records: A Machine Learning Approach

Background

In-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) is associated with high mortality and health care costs in the recovery phase. Predicting adverse outcome events, including readmission, improves the chance for appropriate interventions and reduces health care costs. However, studies related to the early prediction of adverse events of IHCA survivors are rare. Therefore, we used a deep learning model for prediction in this study.

Objective

This study aimed to demonstrate that with the proper data set and learning strategies, we can predict the 30-day mortality and readmission of IHCA survivors based on their historical claims.

Methods

National Health Insurance Research Database claims data, including 168,693 patients who had experienced IHCA at least once and 1,569,478 clinical records, were obtained to generate a data set for outcome prediction. We predicted the 30-day mortality/readmission after each current record (ALL-mortality/ALL-readmission) and 30-day mortality/readmission after IHCA (cardiac arrest [CA]-mortality/CA-readmission). We developed a hierarchical vectorizer (HVec) deep learning model to extract patients’ information and predict mortality and readmission. To embed the textual medical concepts of the clinical records into our deep learning model, we used Text2Node to compute the distributed representations of all medical concept codes as a 128-dimensional vector. Along with the patient’s demographic information, our novel HVec model generated embedding vectors to hierarchically describe the health status at the record-level and patient-level. Multitask learning involving two main tasks and auxiliary tasks was proposed. As CA-mortality and CA-readmission were rare, person upsampling of patients with CA and weighting of CA records were used to improve prediction performance.

Results

With the multitask learning setting in the model learning process, we achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.752 for CA-mortality, 0.711 for ALL-mortality, 0.852 for CA-readmission, and 0.889 for ALL-readmission. The area under the receiver operating characteristic was improved to 0.808 for CA-mortality and 0.862 for CA-readmission after solving the extremely imbalanced issue for CA-mortality/CA-readmission by upsampling and weighting.

Conclusions

This study demonstrated the potential of predicting future outcomes for IHCA survivors by machine learning. The results showed that our proposed approach could effectively alleviate data imbalance problems and train a better model for outcome prediction.

Survival and Hemodynamics During Pediatric Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation for Bradycardia and Poor Perfusion Versus Pulseless Cardiac Arrest

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to compare survival outcomes and intra-arrest arterial blood pressures between children receiving cardiopulmonary resuscitation for bradycardia and poor perfusion and those with pulseless cardiac arrests.

DESIGN

Prospective, multicenter observational study.

SETTING

PICUs and cardiac ICUs of the Collaborative Pediatric Critical Care Research Network.

PATIENTS

Children (< 19 yr old) who received greater than or equal to 1 minute of cardiopulmonary resuscitation with invasive arterial blood pressure monitoring in place.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Of 164 patients, 96 (59%) had bradycardia and poor perfusion as the initial cardiopulmonary resuscitation rhythm. Compared to those with initial pulseless rhythms, these children were younger (0.4 vs 1.4 yr; p = 0.005) and more likely to have a respiratory etiology of arrest (p < 0.001). Children with bradycardia and poor perfusion were more likely to survive to hospital discharge (adjusted odds ratio, 2.31; 95% CI, 1.10-4.83; p = 0.025) and survive with favorable neurologic outcome (adjusted odds ratio, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.04-4.67; p = 0.036). There were no differences in diastolic or systolic blood pressures or event survival (return of spontaneous circulation or return of circulation via extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation). Among patients with bradycardia and poor perfusion, 49 of 96 (51%) had subsequent pulselessness during the cardiopulmonary resuscitation event. During cardiopulmonary resuscitation, these patients had lower diastolic blood pressure (point estimate, -6.68 mm Hg [-10.92 to -2.44 mm Hg]; p = 0.003) and systolic blood pressure (point estimate, -12.36 mm Hg [-23.52 to -1.21 mm Hg]; p = 0.032) and lower rates of return of spontaneous circulation (26/49 vs 42/47; p < 0.001) than those who were never pulseless.

CONCLUSIONS

Most children receiving cardiopulmonary resuscitation in ICUs had an initial rhythm of bradycardia and poor perfusion. They were more likely to survive to hospital discharge and survive with favorable neurologic outcomes than patients with pulseless arrests, although there were no differences in immediate event outcomes or intra-arrest hemodynamics. Patients who progressed to pulselessness after cardiopulmonary resuscitation initiation had lower intra-arrest hemodynamics and worse event outcomes than those who were never pulseless.

Associations between initial serum pH value and outcomes of pediatric out-of-hospital cardiac arrest

INTRODUCTION

Pediatric out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is one of the most critical conditions seen in the emergency department (ED). Although initial serum pH value is reported to be associated with outcome in adult OHCA patients, the association is unclear in pediatric OHCA patients. Thus, we aimed to identify the association between initial pH value and outcome among pediatric OHCA patients.

METHODS

This study was a retrospective analysis of a multicenter prospective cohort registry (Japanese Association for Acute Medicine out-of-hospital cardiac arrest registry) from 87 hospitals in Japan. We included pediatric OHCA patients younger than 16 years of age who were registered in this registry between June 2014 and December 2017. Of the 34,754 patients in the database, 458 patients were ultimately included in the analysis. We equally divided the patients into four groups, based on their initial pH value, and conducted a multivariate logistic regression analysis to calculate the adjusted odds ratios of the initial pH value on hospital arrival with their 95% confidence intervals for the primary outcome.

RESULTS

The median (interquartile range) age was 1 (0-6) year, and 77.9% (357/458) of the first monitored rhythm was asystole. The primary outcome was 1-month survival. The overall 1-month survival was 13.3% (61/458), and a 1-month favorable neurologic outcome was seen in 5.2% (24/458) of cases. The adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the pH 6.81-6.64, pH 6.63-6.47, pH <6.47, and pH unknown groups compared with the pH ≥6.82 group for 1-month survival were 0.39 (0.16-0.97), 0.13 (0.04-0.44), 0.03 (0.00-0.24), and 0.07 (0.02-0.21), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated the association between the initial pH value on hospital arrival and 1-month survival among pediatric OHCA patients.

Lidocaine versus amiodarone for pediatric in-hospital cardiac arrest: An observational study

BACKGROUND

Lidocaine and amiodarone are both included in the pediatric cardiac arrest guidelines as treatments of shock-refractory ventricular fibrillation or pulseless ventricular tachycardia, although there is limited evidence to support this recommendation.

METHODS

In this cohort study from the Get With The Guidelines - Resuscitation registry, we included pediatric patients (≤18 years) with an in-hospital cardiac arrest between 2000 and 2018, who presented with an initial or subsequent shockable rhythm (ventricular fibrillation and pulseless ventricular tachycardia). Patients receiving amiodarone were matched to patients receiving lidocaine based on a propensity score, calculated from multiple patient, event, and hospital characteristics.

RESULTS

A total of 365 patients were available for the analysis, of which 180 (49%) patients were matched on the propensity score. The median age in the raw cohort was 6 (quartiles, 0.5-14) years, 164 (45%) patients were female, and 238 (65%) patients received an antiarrhythmic for an initial shockable rhythm. In the matched cohort, there were no statistically significant differences between patients receiving lidocaine compared to amiodarone in return of spontaneous circulation (RR, 0.99 [95%CI, 0.82-1.19]; p = 0.88), survival to 24 h (RR, 1.02 [95%CI, 0.76-1.38]; p = 0.88), survival to hospital discharge (RR, 1.01 [95%CI, 0.63-1.63]; p = 0.96), and favorable neurological outcome (RR, 0.65 [95%CI, 0.35-1.21]; p = 0.17). The results remained consistent in multiple sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

In children with cardiac arrest receiving antiarrhythmics for a shockable rhythm, there was no significant difference in clinical outcomes between those receiving lidocaine compared to amiodarone.

Epinephrine in children receiving cardiopulmonary resuscitation for bradycardia with poor perfusion

AIM

To determine whether the use of epinephrine in pediatric patients receiving cardiopulmonary resuscitation for bradycardia and poor perfusion was associated with improved clinical outcomes.

METHODS

Using the Get With The Guidelines-Resuscitation registry, we included pediatric patients (≤18 years) who received in-hospital cardiopulmonary resuscitation for bradycardia with poor perfusion (non-pulseless event) between January 2000 and December 2018. Time-dependent propensity score matching was used to match patients receiving epinephrine within the first 10 min of resuscitation to patients at risk of receiving epinephrine within the same minute.

RESULTS

In the full cohort, 55% of patients were male and 39% were neonates. A higher number of patients receiving epinephrine required vasopressors and mechanical ventilation prior to the event compared to those not receiving epinephrine. A total of 3528 patients who received epinephrine were matched to 3528 patients at risk of receiving epinephrine based on the propensity score. Epinephrine was associated with decreased survival to hospital discharge (RR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.74-0.85]; p < 0.001), return of spontaneous circulation (RR, 0.94 [95% CI, 0,91-0.96]; p < 0.001), 24-h survival (RR, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.81-0.90]; p < 0.001), and favorable neurological outcome (RR, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.68-0.84]; p < 0.001). Epinephrine was also associated with an increased risk of progression to pulselessness (RR, 1.17 [95% CI, 1.06-1.28]; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

In children receiving cardiopulmonary resuscitation for bradycardia with poor perfusion, epinephrine was associated with worse outcomes, although the study does not eliminate the potential for confounding.

Trends in Survival After Pediatric In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest in the United States

BACKGROUND

Cardiac arrest in hospitalized children is associated with poor outcomes, but no contemporary study has reported whether the trends in survival have changed over time. In this study, we examined temporal trends in survival for pediatric patients with an in-hospital pulseless cardiac arrest and pediatric patients with a nonpulseless cardiopulmonary resuscitation event from 2000 to 2018.

METHODS

This was an observational study of hospitalized pediatric patients (≤18 years of age) who received cardiopulmonary resuscitation from January 2000 to December 2018 and were included in the Get With The Guidelines-Resuscitation registry, a United States-based in-hospital cardiac arrest registry. The primary outcome was survival to hospital discharge, and the secondary outcome was return of spontaneous circulation (binary outcomes). Generalized estimation equations were used to obtain unadjusted trends in outcomes over time. Separate analyses were performed for patients with a pulseless cardiac arrest and patients with a nonpulseless event (bradycardia with poor perfusion) requiring cardiopulmonary resuscitation. A subgroup analysis was conducted for shockable versus nonshockable initial rhythms in pulseless events.

RESULTS

A total of 7433 patients with a pulseless cardiac arrest and 5751 patients with a nonpulseless event were included for the analyses. For pulseless cardiac arrests, survival was 19% (95% CI, 11%-29%) in 2000 and 38% (95% CI, 34%-43%) in 2018, with an absolute change of 0.67% (95% CI, 0.40%-0.95%; P<0.001) per year, although the increase in survival appeared to stagnate following 2010. Return of spontaneous circulation also increased over time, with an absolute change of 0.83% (95% CI, 0.53%-1.14%; P<0.001) per year. We found no interaction between survival to hospital discharge and the initial rhythm. For nonpulseless events, survival was 57% (95% CI, 39%-75%) in 2000 and 66% (95% CI, 61%-72%) in 2018, with an absolute change of 0.80% (95% CI, 0.32%-1.27%; P=0.001) per year.

CONCLUSIONS

Survival has improved for pediatric events requiring cardiopulmonary resuscitation in the United States, with a 19% absolute increase in survival for in-hospital pulseless cardiac arrests and a 9% absolute increase in survival for nonpulseless events between 2000 and 2018. However, survival from pulseless cardiac arrests appeared to have reached a plateau following 2010.

Cardiac Arrest and Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Outcome Reports: Update of the Utstein Resuscitation Registry Template for In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest: A Consensus Report From a Task Force of the International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation (American Heart Association, European Resuscitation Council, Australian and New Zealand Council on Resuscitation, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada, InterAmerican Heart Foundation, Resuscitation Council of Southern Africa, Resuscitation Council of Asia)

Utstein-style reporting templates provide a structured framework with which to compare systems of care for cardiac arrest. The 2004 Utstein reporting template encompassed both out-of-hospital and in-hospital cardiac arrest. A 2015 update of the Utstein template focused on out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, which makes this update of the in-hospital template timely. Representatives of the International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation developed an updated in-hospital Utstein reporting template iteratively by meeting face-to-face, by teleconference, and by online surveys between 2013 and 2018. Data elements were grouped by hospital factors, patient variables, pre-event factors, cardiac arrest and postresuscitation processes, and outcomes. Elements were classified as core or supplemental by use of a modified Delphi process. Variables were described as core if they were considered essential. Core variables should enable reasonable comparisons between systems and are considered essential for quality improvement programs. Together with core variables, supplementary variables are considered useful for research.

Cardiac Arrest and Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Outcome Reports: Update of the Utstein Resuscitation Registry Template for In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest: A Consensus Report From a Task Force of the International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation (American Heart Association, European Resuscitation Council, Australian and New Zealand Council on Resuscitation, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada, InterAmerican Heart Foundation, Resuscitation Council of Southern Africa, Resuscitation Council of Asia)

Utstein-style reporting templates provide a structured framework with which to compare systems of care for cardiac arrest. The 2004 Utstein reporting template encompassed both out-of-hospital and in-hospital cardiac arrest. A 2015 update of the Utstein template focused on out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, which makes this update of the in-hospital template timely. Representatives of the International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation developed an updated in-hospital Utstein reporting template iteratively by meeting face-to-face, by teleconference, and by online surveys between 2013 and 2018. Data elements were grouped by hospital factors, patient variables, pre-event factors, cardiac arrest and postresuscitation processes, and outcomes. Elements were classified as core or supplemental by use of a modified Delphi process. Variables were described as core if they were considered essential. Core variables should enable reasonable comparisons between systems and are considered essential for quality improvement programs. Together with core variables, supplementary variables are considered useful for research.